244 - Decision making in large-scale evacuations with Erica Kuligowski

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<v Wojciech>Hello everybody.

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<v Wojciech>Welcome to the Fire Science Show.

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<v Wojciech>This week we're venturing in the world of, uh, human behavior in fire, and I have an absolutely excellent speaker to discuss this, uh, important matter with.

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<v Wojciech>And that is Erica Kuligowski from RMIT.

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<v Wojciech>You may remember an episode with Ika that was in the early days of the podcast where she was moving into Australia, and we were discussing, uh, the decision making.

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<v Wojciech>Fires.

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<v Wojciech>Interestingly, some years later she's still working on decision making fires, and today we can discuss it even more.

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<v Wojciech>And actually we, we discuss a very specific aspect of decision making, you know, um.

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<v Wojciech>From the larger image in fires we have those things that, very common, that are quite simple.

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<v Wojciech>You know, when you wrap them in statistics, like in case of evacuation, the pre evacuation time distributions, for example.

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<v Wojciech>But once you want to have a detailed model of how something works, it becomes extremely complicated.

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<v Wojciech>And without those complexities, you cannot really model.

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<v Wojciech>It accurately.

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<v Wojciech>The same case is for decision making and vacation processes, and in this case, the specific niche that Eric is interested in and that we mostly discuss in today's episode is what happens.

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<v Wojciech>Between the decision to evacuate.

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<v Wojciech>So a person takes a decision, they want to evacuate, and, them actually reaching a place of safety because it's not that they teleport or venture always in a straight line.

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<v Wojciech>A lot of things happen and those things influence how others.

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<v Wojciech>Can evacuate those things influence the capacity of road networks and, uh, those things will influence how the evacuation process will happen at large.

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<v Wojciech>Something we don't really consider that much, but perhaps we should.

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<v Wojciech>This is of course, carried out in relationship to large scale evacuations, but a lot of concepts that are discussed are highly relevant for buildings.

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<v Wojciech>So if you are a building person, I would still recommend you to listen because Erica is, uh, just a brilliant speaker.

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<v Wojciech>And also she has this unique overview of the entire field of human behavior in fire.

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<v Wojciech>So at the same time, it's kind of a review what the field is doing.

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<v Wojciech>I hope you will enjoy it.

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<v Wojciech>I have enjoyed a lot.

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<v Wojciech>Let's spin the intro and jump into the episode.

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<v Wojciech>The Fire Science Show podcast is brought to you in partnership with OFR Consultants.

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<v Wojciech>OFR is the UK's leading independent multi-award winning fire engineering consultancy with a reputation for delivering innovative safety driven solutions.

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<v Wojciech>we've been on this journey together for three years so far, and here it begins the fourth year of collaboration between the Fire Science Show and the OFR.

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<v Wojciech>This makes me very proud and I am super thankful to OFR for this long lasting partnership.

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<v Wojciech>I'm extremely happy that we've just started the year four, and I hope there will be many years after that to come So big thanks, OFR for your support to the Fire Science show and the support to the fire safety community at large that we can deliver together.

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<v Wojciech>Check their website@orconsultants.com And now let's head back to the episode.

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<v Wojciech>Hello everybody.

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<v Wojciech>I am joined today by Erica Kuligowski from RMIT.

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<v Wojciech>Uh, hey Erica.

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<v Wojciech>Welcome back to the podcast.

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<v Erica Kuligowski>Thank you so much, EK.

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<v Erica Kuligowski>It's nice to be back.

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<v Wojciech>to invest 200 something episodes.

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<v Wojciech>It's absolutely crazy.

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<v Wojciech>Last time we talked you were moving to Melbourne.

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<v Wojciech>Yes, yes, it, that's been a while.

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<v Wojciech>So There's there, there's

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<v Erica Kuligowski>happened.

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<v Wojciech>there, there's a lot to catch up, but I'm even more excited to, to do this here.

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<v Wojciech>Um, observing what you're doing nowadays in Australia, you've ventured, uh, pretty far away from our good old building, uh, fires.

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<v Wojciech>Like what's the field of, uh, human behavior in fire that you're most interested in today?

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<v Erica Kuligowski>Yeah, so looking back on my career, I have, yeah, you're right.

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<v Erica Kuligowski>I've, I've sort of, moved from the building fire space more into the wildfire and bushfire space, and I did that a little bit before I had moved to Australia.

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<v Erica Kuligowski>But since I've been here, I've been very much working in, uh, the large scale hazards and disasters space, understanding how people respond different types of hazards and uh, trying to understand how we can improve emergency communication and also evacuation strategies for in hazard prone areas.

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<v Erica Kuligowski>So I've been looking at wildfires or bush fires.

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<v Erica Kuligowski>I have, uh, a few students who are PhDs working in the tsunami space and then I also have been working in floods as well.

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<v Erica Kuligowski>So lots of work and very

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<v Wojciech>And very large scale.

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<v Wojciech>okay, uh, you've ventured into Australia.

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<v Wojciech>What's the difference between the wildfire and bushfire?

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<v Wojciech>Is it like inherently different thing?

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<v Wojciech>I don't think I have the bushfire episodes specifically in the podcast yet.

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<v Erica Kuligowski>No, so it is very similar.

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<v Erica Kuligowski>It's a, it's just the term that we use here we don't use wildfire as the term, it's mainly bush fire.

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<v Erica Kuligowski>but we here in Australia call sort of the forests or heavily dense areas, the bush, so heavily vegetation dense areas.

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<v Erica Kuligowski>So that's where the bush fire term comes from.

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<v Erica Kuligowski>but if in fact it is a grass fire instead, then we'll use that term.

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<v Erica Kuligowski>So there is certainly, Differences in the fires that we have here, similar in to the US and Canada and elsewhere.

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<v Erica Kuligowski>But yes, we pretty much have wildfire synonymous with bushfire.

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<v Wojciech>I hope you are not developing something like Buoy Bush Urban Interface.

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<v Erica Kuligowski>No, no, no, no, no, no, no, no, no.

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<v Erica Kuligowski>We don't really use the term wooey here.

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<v Erica Kuligowski>Mainly bushfire prone areas or areas on the urban fringe or peri-urban areas that are, um, at risk of bushfire.

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<v Wojciech>That, that's also nice.

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<v Wojciech>I, I like that.

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<v Wojciech>I like, I,

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<v Erica Kuligowski>Yeah.

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<v Wojciech>I'm not sure if I'm happy with the woo term.

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<v Wojciech>I just find it really difficult to say, but.

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<v Erica Kuligowski>Doesn't roll off the tongue.

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<v Erica Kuligowski>No.

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<v Wojciech>Yeah.

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<v Wojciech>But, but yeah.

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<v Wojciech>Nothing better comes to my mind Um, and anyway, let's talk about those, uh, large scale, um, fire evacuation.

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<v Wojciech>So, uh, last time you were here and I highly recommend everyone to listen to that episode.

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<v Wojciech>It's all is still very, very highly relevant.

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<v Wojciech>Link is in the show notes.

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<v Wojciech>last time we were here, we were discussing your PADM model, uh, model that allows us to, to kind of model the behavior of, of people when they evacuate or the actions that people are taking, from the moment they, they see the fire to the moment they, they evacuate.

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<v Wojciech>Um, is this something that still is in the core of the development when you transition into large scale fires?

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<v Wojciech>Is does it work in similar way?

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<v Erica Kuligowski>Absolutely.

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<v Erica Kuligowski>So yeah, I used, um, Lindell and Perry's, PADM, action decision model in a lot of my building fires work.

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<v Erica Kuligowski>But it actually was developed, uh, very much out of large scale hazards.

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<v Erica Kuligowski>And so that's what it's based on.

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<v Erica Kuligowski>Um, and so it was sort of bringing that disaster lens to building fires.

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<v Erica Kuligowski>And so when I moved over to Wildfire research, it is absolutely at the core of what I do when I'm studying evacuation decisions.

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<v Erica Kuligowski>So, 100% it is a, a model that I use to develop the questions that I ask when I talk to bushfire survivors.

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<v Erica Kuligowski>And then it's certainly a lens that I use when I try to understand what people, uh, were doing, how did they decide to evacuate or not.

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<v Erica Kuligowski>But I've sort of moved a little bit from that, research, um.

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<v Erica Kuligowski>Not just looking at evacuation decisions, but looking at a few other things.

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<v Wojciech>Which are,

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<v Erica Kuligowski>So a lot of my work in the last, I would say three years, has been looking at what people do after they decide whether or not they evacuate.

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<v Erica Kuligowski>And so there's quite been quite a bit of work, and it was actually a keynote that I gave at the IFSS during the pandemic.

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<v Erica Kuligowski>that there has been a lot of work already in Australia and Canada and the US and abroad, um, on what influences people to evacuate or not.

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<v Erica Kuligowski>What is of a focus in our research is what people do after

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<v Wojciech>Mm-hmm.

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<v Erica Kuligowski>decision.

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<v Erica Kuligowski>So that's where I've been focusing a lot of my research.

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<v Erica Kuligowski>So it has been, and I'm presenting on this at the next IFSS, which I'm very excited.

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<v Erica Kuligowski>What are the factors that influence people's decision?

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<v Erica Kuligowski>Of where they go for safety.

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<v Erica Kuligowski>So a lot of times we know, um, from some of the research that's out there, actually a lot of it is in hurricanes in the us uh, that people go to hotels or motels.

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<v Erica Kuligowski>They can go to an evacuation shelter, they can go to a friends and family home, they could go to a caravan park, they could go somewhere else.

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<v Erica Kuligowski>They could maybe stop at a parking lot one night if they're really in a, an urgent situation.

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<v Erica Kuligowski>But what we really want to know from this research is where do people go for safety and why?

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<v Erica Kuligowski>The other questions that I'm asking as part of this research is, how do people get there?

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<v Erica Kuligowski>So do they ride share?

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<v Erica Kuligowski>And that's a lot of Steven Wong's work actually in Canada.

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<v Erica Kuligowski>do they take their personal vehicle?

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<v Erica Kuligowski>Do they take multiple vehicles?

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<v Erica Kuligowski>Are they.

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<v Erica Kuligowski>a trailer along with them, and maybe they've got their horses, um, that they're, that they're traveling with.

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<v Erica Kuligowski>We're trying to understand where do people go for safety?

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<v Erica Kuligowski>How do they get there?

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<v Erica Kuligowski>In what mode of transport and, and what route are they taking on the roadways, um, to get there.

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<v Erica Kuligowski>So it's a lot of work and it's been really, really interesting in what we've been finding.

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<v Wojciech>What's the ultimate relevancy of that, or practical relevancy of that?

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<v Wojciech>I mean, in building evacuation, if I think about the, the, the stuff that happens after a person decided, I mean, I would broadly put it in my pre evacuation time, distribution term.

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<v Wojciech>So for me.

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<v Wojciech>It kind of ends up into it a delay factor.

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<v Wojciech>I mean, I wish I would model that better.

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<v Wojciech>I wish I could include for way finding and you know, the fact that we're doing today, the visibility work, perhaps, you know, those things couple together beautifully.

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<v Wojciech>It's just not yet feasible to do that, uh, kind of work where you could combine, if you can see the sign and, and what decisions do you take and what we are finding to take, uh, regardless, like I, I, I would be looking for a specific time delay to put in my model because I'm ultimately interested in a AOT

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<v Erica Kuligowski>Yes.

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<v Wojciech>in wildfire.

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<v Wojciech>How does it look like

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<v Erica Kuligowski>yeah.

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<v Erica Kuligowski>I mean, that's a, a really great question.

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<v Erica Kuligowski>Why do we care?

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<v Erica Kuligowski>Why, why do we care

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<v Wojciech>this is important?

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<v Wojciech>Why?

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<v Erica Kuligowski>Why am I doing this?

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<v Erica Kuligowski>Yeah, that's right.

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<v Erica Kuligowski>And so You're absolutely right.

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<v Erica Kuligowski>There could be back of the envelope calculations that people make when we're thinking about wildfire.

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<v Erica Kuligowski>a lot of the assumptions that we make when we're thinking about how long people will take to evacuate a community are pretty optimistic assumptions.

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<v Erica Kuligowski>So we assume, for example, in the models that we use, or in the back of the envelope calculations for just traffic calculations that we make, that people go from point A where they start directly to point B and they take, a lot of times we assume that they take the fastest route or the quickest option.

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<v Erica Kuligowski>Yeah, that's right.

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<v Erica Kuligowski>Whatever Google Map says is the quickest way to get there.

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<v Erica Kuligowski>That's, that's what we assume people will take.

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<v Erica Kuligowski>maybe we assume that they will split themselves equally across the road networks.

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<v Erica Kuligowski>Um, and that also helps with quicker evacuation of a community.

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<v Erica Kuligowski>And we also assume that they don't come back in with that.

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<v Erica Kuligowski>They're actually just going directly to safety and they're not taking additional trips and a lot of these assumptions.

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<v Erica Kuligowski>I I think the last one that I'll mention is that in a lot of the models that we use, we assume a particular percentage of background traffic.

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<v Erica Kuligowski>And so those are people who aren't going directly to safety.

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<v Erica Kuligowski>They could be driving through.

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<v Erica Kuligowski>The problem is we don't have a lot of data on how much back background traffic should we assume.

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<v Erica Kuligowski>So it's really up to the user and then also with the.

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<v Erica Kuligowski>optimistic assumptions, we could be wildly underestimating how long a community takes to evacuate.

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<v Erica Kuligowski>Uh, people aren't always going the quickest route.

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<v Erica Kuligowski>They are likely to go a familiar route or a route that may include back roads because they're trying to avoid roadblocks.

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<v Erica Kuligowski>Um, we also know that they don't go directly to safety.

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<v Erica Kuligowski>We know that they're doing a lot of other things within the community and traveling around on the roadways.

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<v Erica Kuligowski>And when we're not taking that into account, or even when we don't understand what that looks like, a we can't assign a, a delay to it because we don't quite know yet what it is.

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<v Erica Kuligowski>And if we just assign a delay to it, we may not really truly.

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<v Erica Kuligowski>Be modeling the intricacies of what's happening and potentially underestimating the total evacuation time.

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<v Erica Kuligowski>So I am trying to help us get a little bit closer to what's actually happening on the roadways, so we have a better idea of how long a community will actually take to evacuate.

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<v Wojciech>So in that case, it's both the capacity of the roots and also how much stress that evacuation will put on the, uh, firefighters and, and the policemen and everyone around.

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<v Wojciech>Right.

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<v Erica Kuligowski>That's exactly right.

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<v Erica Kuligowski>So it's definitely a capacity on the roadway issue.

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<v Erica Kuligowski>So if people are traveling around, they're coming back to their homes, they're visiting neighbors, they're evacuating together,

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<v Wojciech>I.

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<v Erica Kuligowski>means that they're still on the roadways in fire affected areas, and there isn't as much capacity available for people moving directly to safety.

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<v Erica Kuligowski>We also need to take into account, as you said, how.

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<v Erica Kuligowski>The emergency services are using the roadways where they may be setting up roadblocks.

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<v Erica Kuligowski>What does that mean for evacuation?

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<v Erica Kuligowski>And the other thing that we're sort of on the tip of the iceberg for understanding, and I wanted to highlight, um, Constanza Flores, who is a PhD student at University of Canterbury in, in addition to RMIT, she's looking at, uh, potentially in tsunami, but it's very relevant for fires.

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<v Erica Kuligowski>People who are in heavy congestion, potentially leaving their cars and walking.

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<v Wojciech>Okay.

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<v Erica Kuligowski>And so that's another thing is because we potentially may have vehicles on the roadways for various reasons, and car abandonment may be one of them, accidents may be another.

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<v Erica Kuligowski>And that could be additional capacity taken up that we're not accounting for in any of our models part, particularly when we're trying to model worst case scenarios.

00:15:51.782 --> 00:16:06.455
<v Wojciech>This is very interesting, especially like, you know, the aspect of, of people coming back if I, again, normalize it to my building scenario and you know, I have my capacity of staircase basically.

00:16:06.455 --> 00:16:12.475
<v Wojciech>complete, you know, there it is just filled with people and someone decides, oh no, I, I want to go back five floors up.

00:16:12.475 --> 00:16:17.365
<v Wojciech>This creates a, a, like, not just a bottleneck, it's even more than a bottleneck.

00:16:17.365 --> 00:16:21.865
<v Wojciech>It's like a shockwave, uh, through, through the, you know, ongoing process.

00:16:21.865 --> 00:16:27.414
<v Wojciech>I, I, I struggle to imagine how a person could return back against a stream of evacuating people.

00:16:27.414 --> 00:16:41.804
<v Wojciech>I, assume if you have an endless stream of vehicles and people escaping, someone trying to, you know, go the other way, could, could also create such effects and those could propagate in the network.

00:16:41.993 --> 00:16:42.113
<v Erica Kuligowski>Y.

00:16:42.113 --> 00:16:43.207
<v Erica Kuligowski>Absolutely.

00:16:43.207 --> 00:16:47.227
<v Erica Kuligowski>And what we need to think about is not necessarily always people going back.

00:16:47.227 --> 00:16:57.802
<v Erica Kuligowski>These are people sort of from their original point, they're moving around and so they're, they're moving on the road network but not necessarily directly to safety.

00:16:57.802 --> 00:17:11.051
<v Erica Kuligowski>And so we need to sort of think about, they're on the roadways, potentially visiting a neighbor and then maybe they visit another neighbor and maybe they go back to, you know, help someone out and maybe they go and check on someone else's pets.

00:17:11.051 --> 00:17:19.271
<v Erica Kuligowski>And so it's sort of this movement around the road network within fire affected areas that we don't have a good sense of.

00:17:19.271 --> 00:17:20.592
<v Erica Kuligowski>So it might be that.

00:17:20.592 --> 00:17:24.343
<v Erica Kuligowski>Some areas have congestion, maybe some areas don't.

00:17:24.343 --> 00:17:37.452
<v Erica Kuligowski>But when we assume that people go directly from point A to B, we're not taking into account this other sort of, these flows that are going on within fire affected areas that are taking up capacity on the roadways.

00:17:37.452 --> 00:17:41.930
<v Erica Kuligowski>And the other thing that we see our people, like you said, are coming back.

00:17:41.930 --> 00:17:53.390
<v Erica Kuligowski>So they might be going to a location, dropping off some, a vehicle, coming back, getting another vehicle, and then coming back and maybe bringing, getting their pets and evacuating for good.

00:17:53.390 --> 00:17:57.377
<v Erica Kuligowski>And so that also could be, you know, some trouble.

00:17:57.377 --> 00:18:03.948
<v Erica Kuligowski>But we're, we're not necessarily thinking of complete congestion, not like we would have in a stairway in a building.

00:18:03.948 --> 00:18:14.147
<v Erica Kuligowski>This isn't always the case, but again, it's this sort of flow of people moving around rather than from fire affected area out.

00:18:14.147 --> 00:18:18.258
<v Erica Kuligowski>It's like, you know, moving, moving around and.

00:18:18.258 --> 00:18:22.746
<v Erica Kuligowski>creating other dynamics that we're actually not modeling in, in real

00:18:22.823 --> 00:18:37.146
<v Wojciech>Okay, but, well, this is really, really complex to grasp because let's assume you have evacuated community and you know that George went to Josh and had to pick, uh, his cat because he's outside and you mapped his interactions and you knew who went where.

00:18:37.146 --> 00:18:44.073
<v Wojciech>You can probably model that, but if you are on a blank page, you have a community of 1000 people.

00:18:44.589 --> 00:18:44.799
<v Erica Kuligowski>Hmm.

00:18:44.877 --> 00:18:47.553
<v Wojciech>How, how, how are you supposed to include for that?

00:18:48.055 --> 00:18:48.355
<v Erica Kuligowski>Yeah.

00:18:48.355 --> 00:18:51.144
<v Erica Kuligowski>So we don't have enough data to do that yet.

00:18:51.222 --> 00:18:51.603
<v Wojciech>Okay.

00:18:51.724 --> 00:18:56.515
<v Erica Kuligowski>we're trying to understand are the factors that influence that kind of movement.

00:18:56.515 --> 00:19:01.111
<v Erica Kuligowski>And I do have, one paper that I've developed from our interviews.

00:19:01.111 --> 00:19:05.736
<v Erica Kuligowski>there's been some work also from some Fire, A fire in Israel as well.

00:19:05.736 --> 00:19:16.227
<v Erica Kuligowski>Um, where they have this is At least five years ago, I believe they've done this work, um, to try to understand these intermediate trips is what we're

00:19:16.278 --> 00:19:16.699
<v Wojciech>Mm-hmm.

00:19:17.126 --> 00:19:47.156
<v Erica Kuligowski>So I think once we have a better sense of what are the factors that influence these types of trips and whether or not they're trips within a fire affected area or trips outside that come back in, then I think we'll be able to at least identify some percentage of background traffic that is leads based on a little bit more reality than what we have now, which is zero data, um, to, to try to get at some of these capacity issues.

00:19:47.156 --> 00:19:55.864
<v Erica Kuligowski>I don't think we're ever gonna get at mapping exactly what everyone's doing at any one time, we need to be able to get a little bit closer.

00:19:55.864 --> 00:19:59.013
<v Erica Kuligowski>And I think we, once we have a sense of, okay.

00:19:59.013 --> 00:20:04.365
<v Erica Kuligowski>This is a stronger knit community, so they're more likely to do a lot of internal movement.

00:20:04.365 --> 00:20:08.938
<v Erica Kuligowski>And this is a, community that has stronger connections.

00:20:08.938 --> 00:20:14.067
<v Erica Kuligowski>I don't know, 20 Ks away, but, so they're more likely to do a little bit of back and forth.

00:20:14.067 --> 00:20:25.121
<v Erica Kuligowski>Then we can start to maybe get a little bit more accurate with at least modeling our background traffic and trying to get at implicitly modeling some of these intermediate trips.

00:20:25.679 --> 00:20:41.523
<v Wojciech>I, I once, you know, I once thought that Orwell is 1984 is science fiction, but now I see it's more like a manual and I, my mind is in, in quite, uh, you know, sad, uh, prediction for a very dystopian future.

00:20:41.523 --> 00:20:44.733
<v Wojciech>So we might actually be able to do what you just said, you know,

00:20:45.185 --> 00:20:45.405
<v Erica Kuligowski>Yes,

00:20:45.634 --> 00:20:47.223
<v Wojciech>but, uh, perhaps,

00:20:47.306 --> 00:20:48.306
<v Erica Kuligowski>I, I know what you're saying.

00:20:48.306 --> 00:20:48.586
<v Erica Kuligowski>Yes.

00:20:48.693 --> 00:21:04.096
<v Wojciech>but, but perhaps at large, you know, just knowing the probabilities of how many people would do those side trips would give you enough to, it kind of, it kind of looks like a turbulence problem in a flow, you know, like you have, uh, or a gust problem in the wind.

00:21:04.096 --> 00:21:10.936
<v Wojciech>You have your average, uh, wind velocity and you have some gusts, which, which, which will change a little bit every now and then.

00:21:10.936 --> 00:21:12.767
<v Wojciech>So, so I, I like it a lot.

00:21:13.239 --> 00:21:27.989
<v Erica Kuligowski>this is why I love speaking with very curious engineers like yourself, because sometimes I'm very much in the social science space and so I wanna learn and dig in and then you'll sit and ask me, yeah, okay, but how do we, how are we gonna model that?

00:21:27.989 --> 00:21:31.888
<v Erica Kuligowski>So I love, that's what I love about interdisciplinary research and

00:21:31.977 --> 00:21:32.057
<v Wojciech>Hmm,

00:21:32.669 --> 00:21:38.398
<v Erica Kuligowski>teams is because you need both of those sort of minds thinking in that way.

00:21:38.398 --> 00:21:41.368
<v Erica Kuligowski>Like, okay, I'm going to get into the social sciences of this.

00:21:41.368 --> 00:21:49.259
<v Erica Kuligowski>I really wanna understand what people are doing and why, and then let's sit and think about how are we actually gonna calculate, quantify this, I mean to say.

00:21:49.259 --> 00:21:50.519
<v Erica Kuligowski>So I love that.

00:21:50.632 --> 00:21:56.271
<v Wojciech>I'm an engineer, but I, I built up enormous respect for social sciences.

00:21:56.271 --> 00:21:57.771
<v Wojciech>I eventually.

00:21:57.771 --> 00:22:01.616
<v Wojciech>Admitted that we are solving a human problem.

00:22:01.616 --> 00:22:07.616
<v Wojciech>So if we're solving a hu, if we are solving a human problem, you, you have to have human inside the problem.

00:22:07.616 --> 00:22:14.727
<v Wojciech>You cannot like solve it for a machine unless you are, uh, solving for evacuation of, uh, a robot army or whatever.

00:22:14.727 --> 00:22:17.366
<v Wojciech>Uh, but I don't, uh, care about that kind of evacuation.

00:22:17.366 --> 00:22:25.849
<v Wojciech>So, I'm also, you know, in, in this podcast I'm championing something which may exist, may not exist, uh, which I try to call wildfire engineering.

00:22:25.849 --> 00:22:31.800
<v Wojciech>And I, I believe it's a job that people will do and they will get paid for its solid money in the future.

00:22:31.800 --> 00:22:36.601
<v Wojciech>You know, helping communities, uh, protect themselves against hazards like that.

00:22:36.601 --> 00:22:39.601
<v Wojciech>Therefore, I'm, I'm very open to, you know, gather all.

00:22:39.601 --> 00:22:43.411
<v Wojciech>That there is on the edge of the research today.

00:22:43.411 --> 00:22:53.371
<v Wojciech>You know, so the people who are training to become wildfire engineers, whether they know or not, they will be ones, uh, I, I hope they, they, they are best armed for that.

00:22:53.371 --> 00:22:57.605
<v Wojciech>So continuing with that thought, how do you gather data for that?

00:22:57.605 --> 00:23:03.036
<v Wojciech>Like, what are you seeking to improve your models, your predictions in that term?

00:23:03.036 --> 00:23:04.415
<v Wojciech>What kind of data you are looking.

00:23:04.821 --> 00:23:11.403
<v Erica Kuligowski>So this project in particular, I always try to gather mixed methods data.

00:23:11.403 --> 00:23:17.883
<v Erica Kuligowski>So the first step I take, and this is what I did for this project that we've just been talking about, are.

00:23:17.883 --> 00:23:20.643
<v Erica Kuligowski>Qualitative in-depth interviews.

00:23:20.643 --> 00:23:30.363
<v Erica Kuligowski>And so we did interviews with about 30 people, um, for, from each of the three communities that we worked in in Australia.

00:23:30.363 --> 00:23:34.413
<v Erica Kuligowski>And they're amazing people and they gave of their time and told their stories.

00:23:34.413 --> 00:23:40.844
<v Erica Kuligowski>and so these are fire survivors, And, they sat down and talked with my team.

00:23:40.844 --> 00:23:42.344
<v Erica Kuligowski>So it's, um.

00:23:42.344 --> 00:23:44.443
<v Erica Kuligowski>I'm gonna just name them.

00:23:44.443 --> 00:23:46.273
<v Erica Kuligowski>Rosie Morrison is in my team.

00:23:46.273 --> 00:23:47.144
<v Erica Kuligowski>So Dr.

00:23:47.144 --> 00:23:47.864
<v Erica Kuligowski>Uh, Dr.

00:23:47.864 --> 00:23:49.784
<v Erica Kuligowski>Rosie Morrison, uh, Dr.

00:23:49.784 --> 00:23:52.213
<v Erica Kuligowski>Fatima Ru hsa and, uh, Dr.

00:23:52.213 --> 00:23:53.023
<v Erica Kuligowski>Tegan Larin.

00:23:53.023 --> 00:23:59.683
<v Erica Kuligowski>And so they've been, um, involved as research fellows doing these interviews across different communities.

00:23:59.683 --> 00:24:05.233
<v Erica Kuligowski>Tegan has primarily been working in Maui with me after the Maui fires.

00:24:05.233 --> 00:24:11.594
<v Erica Kuligowski>But this project in particular that I've been speaking with you about, um, on travel behavior, has been in Australia.

00:24:11.594 --> 00:24:19.483
<v Erica Kuligowski>And so we looked at, we did interviews in two locations in Western Australia, and then one location in Victoria, which is my home state.

00:24:19.483 --> 00:24:20.233
<v Erica Kuligowski>And.

00:24:20.233 --> 00:24:24.538
<v Erica Kuligowski>That was really just trying to understand, talking with people.

00:24:24.538 --> 00:24:25.979
<v Erica Kuligowski>Please tell us your story.

00:24:25.979 --> 00:24:33.058
<v Erica Kuligowski>Tell us what happened from the first moment that you thought maybe there was a fire going on all the way to when you reached safety.

00:24:33.058 --> 00:24:38.098
<v Erica Kuligowski>And then beyond that, people also talked to us about their recovery and how it was going.

00:24:38.098 --> 00:24:45.670
<v Erica Kuligowski>And, and we just listened and asked, probing questions or follow up questions with what, uh, whatever you, you decide to call them.

00:24:45.670 --> 00:24:47.380
<v Erica Kuligowski>And it was more about.

00:24:47.380 --> 00:24:50.140
<v Erica Kuligowski>Why, um, tell me more about that.

00:24:50.140 --> 00:24:53.740
<v Erica Kuligowski>Please help me to, you know, understand what your thought process was.

00:24:53.740 --> 00:25:01.480
<v Erica Kuligowski>And that is a, is an important step in sort of understanding what are all the reasons why people do what they do.

00:25:01.480 --> 00:25:12.460
<v Erica Kuligowski>And then now we're working on a quantitative survey dive a bit further into the factors that influence people's choices of destinations.

00:25:12.460 --> 00:25:14.440
<v Erica Kuligowski>So do they pick hotel motel?

00:25:14.440 --> 00:25:15.640
<v Erica Kuligowski>Do they go to a friend's house?

00:25:15.640 --> 00:25:18.220
<v Erica Kuligowski>Do they go in an an evacuation shelter?

00:25:18.220 --> 00:25:34.047
<v Erica Kuligowski>Because we're trying to better understand what are the reasons that people make these choices so that we can help communities, better plan for where people will go for safety and maybe how many evacuation shelters they will need.

00:25:34.047 --> 00:25:36.477
<v Erica Kuligowski>What should be the capacity of these shelters?

00:25:36.477 --> 00:25:39.567
<v Erica Kuligowski>Um, and then where people are going otherwise 'cause.

00:25:39.567 --> 00:25:50.547
<v Erica Kuligowski>In our sample, people were traveling upwards of more than a hundred Ks sometimes to go to family and friends, especially if they didn't have a very strong social network.

00:25:50.547 --> 00:25:56.846
<v Erica Kuligowski>Some people were saying, look, Erica, I went all the way to this city because I didn't know anyone else around me.

00:25:56.846 --> 00:26:01.136
<v Erica Kuligowski>And lastly, we do some VR experiments.

00:26:01.136 --> 00:26:15.289
<v Erica Kuligowski>And so one of my PhD students, uh, GHA Atta, she is working on, simulations, driving simulations, using VR to understand how people make routing decisions.

00:26:15.289 --> 00:26:29.660
<v Erica Kuligowski>So if there's, um, particular routes, does the timing of the route, the, the distance of the route, the evacuation cues that they may be exposed to and traffic affect where people travel on the roadways.

00:26:29.660 --> 00:26:32.000
<v Erica Kuligowski>So we're going at it from multiple

00:26:32.342 --> 00:26:42.027
<v Wojciech>Uh, and how about like, large scale data, like perhaps just the Google, uh, maps, data on traffic congestion, maybe GPS tracking of people.

00:26:42.027 --> 00:26:45.896
<v Wojciech>Like is, is this something that, that, that's, uh, that you're looking for?

00:26:46.430 --> 00:26:47.539
<v Erica Kuligowski>Absolutely.

00:26:47.539 --> 00:26:52.272
<v Erica Kuligowski>So I've have, great colleagues at the University of Florida.

00:26:52.272 --> 00:27:05.923
<v Erica Kuligowski>Xiao is, uh, is one and working quite a bit with Reno Love Reg as well as part of this team to look at GPS data and how people move on the roadways during fire events.

00:27:05.923 --> 00:27:16.415
<v Erica Kuligowski>GPS data is amazing because it doesn't, rely on people's memory of where they went, whereas obviously we're asking people to try to map their routes.

00:27:16.415 --> 00:27:22.280
<v Erica Kuligowski>The, Difficulty sometimes with GPS data though, is we don't know anything about the person.

00:27:22.280 --> 00:27:26.931
<v Erica Kuligowski>So we know aggregate trends of where people are traveling.

00:27:26.931 --> 00:27:33.441
<v Erica Kuligowski>We have done amazing, Chile's team has done amazing work also with Tom Cova, I should mention, at University of Utah

00:27:33.557 --> 00:27:33.778
<v Wojciech>Hmm.

00:27:33.980 --> 00:27:44.228
<v Erica Kuligowski>overlaying property location over the maps that we have to understand that people went to residential areas versus maybe a hotel motel.

00:27:44.228 --> 00:27:46.928
<v Erica Kuligowski>So we've, we've done a lot with GPS.

00:27:46.928 --> 00:27:50.917
<v Erica Kuligowski>We've tried to do understand pe where people go for destinations.

00:27:50.917 --> 00:28:00.067
<v Erica Kuligowski>We've done some work understanding evacuation decisions and departure times using, uh, GPS data as well as more recently routing.

00:28:00.067 --> 00:28:01.837
<v Erica Kuligowski>Um, so that's pretty amazing.

00:28:01.837 --> 00:28:13.020
<v Erica Kuligowski>And then the other work that we have been doing with the wound team, so that's led out of, Lund University and the NFPA, uh, research Foundation, Amanda Kimball.

00:28:13.020 --> 00:28:14.820
<v Erica Kuligowski>And then, um, Enrico Roki.

00:28:14.820 --> 00:28:16.969
<v Erica Kuligowski>Trying to improve wound.

00:28:16.969 --> 00:28:20.929
<v Erica Kuligowski>We've looked at trying to mine social media data as well.

00:28:20.929 --> 00:28:27.528
<v Erica Kuligowski>So of course when Twitter was Twitter, um, and not x, it was a little bit easier to gather that information.

00:28:27.528 --> 00:28:40.344
<v Erica Kuligowski>But what we were looking at is could we understand, how people were moving around, how they made their decision to evacuate, maybe where they ended up going for safety, using social media data.

00:28:40.344 --> 00:28:43.013
<v Erica Kuligowski>Lastly, traffic count.

00:28:43.013 --> 00:28:46.644
<v Erica Kuligowski>So there's some work also with Enrico Roki and others.

00:28:46.644 --> 00:29:10.938
<v Erica Kuligowski>He had a PhD student that just finished Arthur Rohar, who had done a lot of work, um, with one of my PhD students, uh, Nima, Jan, Fahan, um, who had done a lot of work looking at traffic count ca traffic, uh, data collected by, the state of California to understand just traffic flows on highways during fires.

00:29:10.938 --> 00:29:16.698
<v Erica Kuligowski>And they found that traffic does move differently during evacuations.

00:29:16.698 --> 00:29:25.458
<v Erica Kuligowski>A bit slower actually, than it would even in, um, congested ingested scenarios than it would in non-emergency situations.

00:29:25.458 --> 00:29:35.712
<v Erica Kuligowski>So we have used a lot of different data trying to come at this problem from a lot of different angles and, um, I think we're getting somewhere and understanding what's going on.

00:29:36.086 --> 00:29:37.105
<v Wojciech>Oh, this is great.

00:29:37.105 --> 00:29:50.557
<v Wojciech>Like the large scale data shows you the statistical landscape of, of those decisions and the, the background traffic, as you said, and in depth reviews give you like why people are, are doing the stuff they're doing.

00:29:50.557 --> 00:30:03.336
<v Wojciech>So I guess it's about finding, nailing the balance between the two and finding the, the links, in regards of, of how people behave and again, my experience with buildings, how, how much people are.

00:30:03.336 --> 00:30:08.041
<v Wojciech>Prone to nudging in those, uh, evacuation scenarios.

00:30:08.041 --> 00:30:11.816
<v Wojciech>Like how much drivable is that behavior?

00:30:12.172 --> 00:30:14.717
<v Erica Kuligowski>So that is a, a really good question.

00:30:14.717 --> 00:30:24.166
<v Erica Kuligowski>Uh, we have, when we've been doing interviews, I'll just take Australia for example, and there are definitely people who will stay no matter

00:30:24.229 --> 00:30:24.441
<v Wojciech>Mm-hmm.

00:30:24.880 --> 00:30:31.965
<v Erica Kuligowski>And we have talked to them about their plans whether or not what they plan to do is what they actually decided to do.

00:30:31.965 --> 00:30:34.516
<v Erica Kuligowski>Um, a lot of people do have triggers.

00:30:34.516 --> 00:30:39.777
<v Erica Kuligowski>Um, so if the fire crosses the ridge or something like that, then we know we need to

00:30:39.900 --> 00:30:40.319
<v Wojciech>Mm-hmm.

00:30:41.126 --> 00:30:49.767
<v Erica Kuligowski>Um, but for the most part, I think people who will stay have done a lot of the work to do that.

00:30:49.767 --> 00:30:53.156
<v Erica Kuligowski>They've got water tanks, they've got hoses, they've got the protective gear.

00:30:53.156 --> 00:30:54.116
<v Erica Kuligowski>They know what to do.

00:30:54.116 --> 00:30:56.787
<v Erica Kuligowski>They've gone through CFA training to do that.

00:30:56.787 --> 00:31:15.241
<v Erica Kuligowski>but I think what I'm most worried about, to be honest, is people living in, areas that haven't had fire events in the past that are in bushfire prone areas and who, who may not understand their risk.

00:31:15.241 --> 00:31:18.422
<v Erica Kuligowski>And so some of the work I've been doing also.

00:31:18.422 --> 00:31:23.942
<v Erica Kuligowski>Is thinking about how could we help people?

00:31:23.942 --> 00:31:37.481
<v Erica Kuligowski>Let's take suburbs for example, people in suburbs who are not who, who maybe have not had a fire but are actually at fire risk help, help them understand their risk prior to fire season.

00:31:37.481 --> 00:31:40.061
<v Erica Kuligowski>And do some of that nudging that you were talking about.

00:31:40.061 --> 00:31:56.032
<v Erica Kuligowski>And so I'm a big fan of helping people understand in safe and ethical ways, their risks, maybe by virtual reality, um, simulations to really understand like, look, these types of fires are likely to happen here.

00:31:56.032 --> 00:32:00.292
<v Erica Kuligowski>And this is, these are the consequences that could happen if you don't act.

00:32:00.292 --> 00:32:05.843
<v Erica Kuligowski>Um, if you don't leave, this is what could, could be, you know, the scenario that.

00:32:05.843 --> 00:32:08.137
<v Erica Kuligowski>That is quite dangerous to you?

00:32:08.137 --> 00:32:19.553
<v Erica Kuligowski>I think that we could do and help people, especially in areas that haven't had a fire, understand their risk and do a little bit of that safe and ethical nudging you were talking about.

00:32:19.769 --> 00:32:21.309
<v Wojciech>but, but that's the preparedness phase.

00:32:21.309 --> 00:32:35.374
<v Wojciech>I, I was thinking more about the exact phase that you're looking into, like the behavior when they're like kind, kind of wayfinding, you know, if you had emergency mode in Google Maps, that would optimize your pathway if you had.

00:32:35.655 --> 00:32:35.875
<v Erica Kuligowski>Oh.

00:32:36.294 --> 00:32:43.884
<v Wojciech>Like a FEMA app that would like tell you what's the best place, where's your nearest shelter, where is the fire line?

00:32:43.884 --> 00:32:45.413
<v Wojciech>And, and stuff like that.

00:32:45.413 --> 00:32:56.967
<v Wojciech>I, I feel those are the tools that, you know, in this modern mindset of, innovating software, uh, so fast, I, I think this is something that could, could, could come up.

00:32:57.444 --> 00:32:57.805
<v Erica Kuligowski>I do.

00:32:57.805 --> 00:32:58.644
<v Erica Kuligowski>I agree with you.

00:32:58.644 --> 00:33:04.734
<v Erica Kuligowski>So we do know that people that we've spoken with actually are looking for evacuation routes.

00:33:04.734 --> 00:33:09.894
<v Erica Kuligowski>It's not something that agencies often provide because things are changing so quickly.

00:33:09.894 --> 00:33:23.920
<v Erica Kuligowski>But I do think with technology, We could eventually, maybe in the short term, get there and provide people with the safe, eh, at the moment path for evacuation because people are looking for that information.

00:33:23.920 --> 00:33:31.029
<v Erica Kuligowski>also working on a project I haven't talked about, we're not finished yet on bushfire predictions.

00:33:31.029 --> 00:33:33.670
<v Erica Kuligowski>And so these are maps that go out.

00:33:33.670 --> 00:33:40.959
<v Erica Kuligowski>They went out in the large, 20 19, 20 20 black summer fires is what they're called here.

00:33:40.959 --> 00:33:45.252
<v Erica Kuligowski>and that was it was a very long and dangerous fire season here.

00:33:45.252 --> 00:33:52.211
<v Erica Kuligowski>and a lot of different areas were threatened and for the first time agencies were releasing maps.

00:33:52.211 --> 00:34:00.580
<v Erica Kuligowski>That would help predict or, or provide, um, worst case predictions for the fire the following day.

00:34:00.580 --> 00:34:05.260
<v Erica Kuligowski>And that actually does help, um, people to understand their risk.

00:34:05.260 --> 00:34:10.510
<v Erica Kuligowski>And this is like in the moment these fires are happening, they released a prediction the night before.

00:34:10.510 --> 00:34:13.090
<v Erica Kuligowski>Um, it goes out to the public.

00:34:13.090 --> 00:34:29.987
<v Erica Kuligowski>And we have done a lot of, uh, interviews and surveys on these types of maps to try to understand what is the most optimal design to get people to pay attention and to leave, if that's what they want people to do.

00:34:29.987 --> 00:34:47.282
<v Erica Kuligowski>And so we've been working really hard on the map design element, but I do think that these are quite powerful products the fire agencies have been ex more excited about using that really do help people to understand like, oh, this could be a really bad day tomorrow and help people to leave early.

00:34:47.918 --> 00:34:55.239
<v Wojciech>Do you think this could have a significant impact on that pre evacuation time that we're discussing?

00:34:56.230 --> 00:34:57.340
<v Erica Kuligowski>I do, I do.

00:34:57.340 --> 00:35:10.210
<v Erica Kuligowski>I think that if they reach people in time think people have to understand that, look, this might say worse case, but we need to help people to understand uncertainty.

00:35:10.210 --> 00:35:10.871
<v Erica Kuligowski>That's sort of

00:35:10.934 --> 00:35:11.153
<v Wojciech>Hmm.

00:35:11.440 --> 00:35:12.221
<v Erica Kuligowski>part here.

00:35:12.221 --> 00:35:24.971
<v Erica Kuligowski>Um, but I do, I do think, and from what we've found in some of our studies so far, that this can help to reduce the delay that people will take if they feel like they're at risk.

00:35:24.971 --> 00:35:35.302
<v Erica Kuligowski>If they're really connecting with this map, and if they trust the source, yeah, I, I think it, it could really help people to get out of town earlier than they would have otherwise.

00:35:35.400 --> 00:35:43.469
<v Wojciech>But at the same time, you cannot tell them to evacuate in the conditions, which they probably should not because they will never use the app again.

00:35:43.469 --> 00:35:43.800
<v Wojciech>Right.

00:35:43.987 --> 00:35:45.157
<v Erica Kuligowski>it's a, it's a balance.

00:35:45.157 --> 00:35:55.117
<v Erica Kuligowski>We've been talking about this a lot in emergency communication space, and I think there certainly is a tendency for agencies anywhere.

00:35:55.117 --> 00:36:11.213
<v Erica Kuligowski>I'm not just seeking, speaking about Australia, um, worried about if they get the predictions wrong or if something happens, um, that, people maybe did, you know, maybe the prediction said they should do something, they left and it didn't come to fruition.

00:36:11.213 --> 00:36:14.543
<v Erica Kuligowski>the opposite could happen as you suggest.

00:36:14.543 --> 00:36:17.369
<v Erica Kuligowski>but I think the important piece that.

00:36:17.369 --> 00:36:24.199
<v Erica Kuligowski>we could do more is the debrief after an event happens, bringing people together.

00:36:24.199 --> 00:36:38.989
<v Erica Kuligowski>There's actually been research on this that Jeanette Sutton has done out of the university at Albany, um, that shows these debriefing sessions help to increase trust help people to feel like they can do that.

00:36:38.989 --> 00:36:41.150
<v Erica Kuligowski>That they're not gonna just do nothing next time.

00:36:41.150 --> 00:36:47.300
<v Erica Kuligowski>And these debriefs help agencies to explain actually everything that happened exactly as it should have.

00:36:47.300 --> 00:36:53.070
<v Erica Kuligowski>this, this is how our products work and this is why the fire didn't eventuate in the way we thought it would.

00:36:53.070 --> 00:36:55.231
<v Erica Kuligowski>And it actually is quite a powerful tool.

00:36:55.659 --> 00:36:58.478
<v Wojciech>Do you know how they handle this in tsunami space?

00:36:58.478 --> 00:36:59.918
<v Wojciech>I'm, I'm from Poland.

00:36:59.918 --> 00:37:03.039
<v Wojciech>I just had an, I just had an earthquake episode in the podcast.

00:37:03.039 --> 00:37:05.409
<v Wojciech>I have, like, I don't have earthquakes.

00:37:05.409 --> 00:37:10.298
<v Wojciech>I have no idea of earthquakes and my knowledge about tsunamis is pretty much the same.

00:37:10.298 --> 00:37:16.652
<v Wojciech>So, uh, but, but I imagine they must manage that because, I hear about those tsunami warnings.

00:37:16.652 --> 00:37:19.621
<v Wojciech>Like there's an, there's been an earthquake middle of Pacific Ocean.

00:37:19.621 --> 00:37:23.251
<v Wojciech>Their tsunami warning has been issued in this, this, and this location.

00:37:23.643 --> 00:37:24.934
<v Erica Kuligowski>it is a good question.

00:37:24.934 --> 00:37:31.713
<v Erica Kuligowski>So they, I think every agency in, in the countries are different, and I don't know how each country

00:37:31.742 --> 00:37:32.032
<v Wojciech>Okay.

00:37:32.373 --> 00:37:44.284
<v Erica Kuligowski>that, because you're absolutely right for earthquakes in particular, when people get a tsunami warning, it, it's a, it's a tough one because they don't exactly know if a tsunami will eventuate or

00:37:44.621 --> 00:37:44.842
<v Wojciech>Mm.

00:37:44.914 --> 00:37:46.443
<v Erica Kuligowski>they want people to be safe.

00:37:46.443 --> 00:37:53.853
<v Erica Kuligowski>I actually don't know if a lot, you know, which countries are excelling on the debriefing aspect of that.

00:37:53.853 --> 00:37:55.054
<v Erica Kuligowski>I would imagine.

00:37:55.054 --> 00:37:56.043
<v Erica Kuligowski>I'm just gonna pause it.

00:37:56.043 --> 00:37:56.974
<v Erica Kuligowski>I'm gonna put it out there.

00:37:56.974 --> 00:37:59.643
<v Erica Kuligowski>It probably isn't the norm.

00:37:59.643 --> 00:38:25.594
<v Erica Kuligowski>To do that because resources in fire, emergency agencies are not always flush and they have competing prior, like a lot of times, especially in this country here, something will happen and then another thing will happen, and then I think agencies are always trying to catch up and always responding, and so it's hard to go back to community and have that conversation.

00:38:25.594 --> 00:38:26.434
<v Erica Kuligowski>I'm not saying it's never

00:38:26.831 --> 00:38:27.161
<v Wojciech>Mm.

00:38:27.304 --> 00:38:33.273
<v Erica Kuligowski>but I'm saying it's difficult to do because of the number of events that are always happening in locations.

00:38:33.791 --> 00:38:35.387
<v Wojciech>Perhaps I should rephrase the question.

00:38:35.387 --> 00:38:48.342
<v Wojciech>I'm wondering how much you should arm the people with information that allows them to take sovereign decision based on the information itself.

00:38:48.342 --> 00:38:52.677
<v Wojciech>How much you should tell them, you know, this is the moment you should evacuate.

00:38:52.677 --> 00:38:54.867
<v Wojciech>Like, this is the time you should, you should go.

00:38:54.867 --> 00:39:00.907
<v Wojciech>And kind of, you know, giving them decision right out like you need to go.

00:39:00.907 --> 00:39:03.996
<v Wojciech>But then, you know, the, the trust factor.

00:39:03.996 --> 00:39:14.215
<v Wojciech>If, if, if it wasn't urgent, if, if you tell them to evacuate, uh, every week after three times, they're not gonna evacuate for the full time.

00:39:14.215 --> 00:39:30.715
<v Wojciech>So I, I find this is, this is an interesting because we probably would love to provide, you know, better information to people, better guidance and act on the factors that you're researching at the other end.

00:39:30.715 --> 00:39:32.155
<v Wojciech>We don't want to break it.

00:39:32.155 --> 00:39:37.619
<v Wojciech>And I'm speaking now from my experience with, uh, false alarm and fire detection systems, you know.

00:39:37.682 --> 00:39:38.822
<v Erica Kuligowski>yes, yes, yes.

00:39:39.190 --> 00:39:45.610
<v Wojciech>We can detect the slightest amount of smoke, but we don't necessarily want to evacuate the 10,000 people.

00:39:45.610 --> 00:39:46.360
<v Wojciech>Right.

00:39:46.583 --> 00:39:46.764
<v Erica Kuligowski>Yep.

00:39:46.764 --> 00:39:47.994
<v Erica Kuligowski>Where's the threshold?

00:39:47.994 --> 00:39:52.878
<v Erica Kuligowski>I'm, I am gonna err on the side of tell them to go.

00:39:52.878 --> 00:39:54.137
<v Erica Kuligowski>really

00:39:54.335 --> 00:39:54.625
<v Wojciech>Yeah.

00:39:54.737 --> 00:39:55.518
<v Erica Kuligowski>I'm gonna be.

00:39:55.518 --> 00:40:01.550
<v Erica Kuligowski>And I, you know, maybe may, maybe when you talk to me in another five years, I will say, ah.

00:40:01.550 --> 00:40:02.889
<v Erica Kuligowski>I shouldn't have

00:40:02.996 --> 00:40:03.286
<v Wojciech>yeah.

00:40:03.550 --> 00:40:06.268
<v Erica Kuligowski>No, but I, I, I think it's better to be safe.

00:40:06.268 --> 00:40:19.617
<v Erica Kuligowski>And I, and from the Maui work, which hopefully the report will be coming out soon, um, where they had a loss of power and a loss of service, self services and they weren't able to get the word out.

00:40:19.617 --> 00:40:22.288
<v Erica Kuligowski>People were waiting for official word to go.

00:40:22.288 --> 00:40:22.708
<v Erica Kuligowski>People

00:40:22.795 --> 00:40:23.085
<v Wojciech>Okay.

00:40:23.608 --> 00:40:24.748
<v Erica Kuligowski>for that information.

00:40:24.748 --> 00:40:24.927
<v Erica Kuligowski>They

00:40:25.155 --> 00:40:25.445
<v Wojciech>Okay.

00:40:25.768 --> 00:40:28.047
<v Erica Kuligowski>and they want the information.

00:40:28.047 --> 00:40:29.253
<v Erica Kuligowski>go.

00:40:29.253 --> 00:40:34.577
<v Erica Kuligowski>And, this is especially the case because they didn't have a lot of experience with fires.

00:40:34.577 --> 00:40:39.708
<v Erica Kuligowski>They had a lot of experience with cyclones or hurricanes and tsunami.

00:40:39.708 --> 00:40:50.090
<v Erica Kuligowski>and so it's even more important to tell people to go, especially in areas where they're not as experienced and they're likely to be waiting for official word.

00:40:50.090 --> 00:40:54.559
<v Erica Kuligowski>So I'm really airing on both on that side.

00:40:54.559 --> 00:40:57.559
<v Erica Kuligowski>But I do think it's helpful to have multiple products.

00:40:57.559 --> 00:41:03.170
<v Erica Kuligowski>So those predictions that go out the night before, those are hopefully gonna help people who will leave early.

00:41:03.170 --> 00:41:03.769
<v Erica Kuligowski>Okay.

00:41:03.769 --> 00:41:05.719
<v Erica Kuligowski>Then we know not everyone's gonna leave early.

00:41:05.719 --> 00:41:13.219
<v Erica Kuligowski>So then you give the message to go now, leave immediately, and then hopefully you get most of the other people who are going to leave.

00:41:13.219 --> 00:41:18.949
<v Erica Kuligowski>And then in Australia, they've got a too late to leave message so they.

00:41:18.949 --> 00:41:23.849
<v Erica Kuligowski>They will, fire agencies will say, um, it is too late to leave.

00:41:23.849 --> 00:41:28.650
<v Erica Kuligowski>You have to bunker down now because it's, it's no longer safe for you to be on the roadways.

00:41:28.650 --> 00:41:34.110
<v Erica Kuligowski>And so then they help people to understand like, okay, all right, now, too late to leave.

00:41:34.110 --> 00:41:37.409
<v Erica Kuligowski>I've gotta do what I need to do and defend in place.

00:41:37.568 --> 00:41:38.557
<v Wojciech>That's horrible.

00:41:38.557 --> 00:41:45.518
<v Wojciech>I mean, that, that's such a, I mean, I'm not saying that the information, I mean, it's a horrible situation to find yourself in.

00:41:45.867 --> 00:41:51.838
<v Erica Kuligowski>It is, but it's a very helpful message because they don't want people getting on the roadways and,

00:41:51.951 --> 00:41:52.010
<v Wojciech>Yeah.

00:41:52.318 --> 00:41:52.918
<v Erica Kuligowski>themselves.

00:41:52.971 --> 00:41:53.150
<v Wojciech>mean, yeah.

00:41:53.248 --> 00:42:02.465
<v Erica Kuligowski>And the fire agencies really help people to understand if you are in a place where you actually can't leave, these are the things that you need to do.

00:42:02.465 --> 00:42:09.186
<v Erica Kuligowski>So there's a lot of really good preparedness information out there for people to understand, if I'm in this situation, this is what I do.

00:42:09.186 --> 00:42:10.775
<v Erica Kuligowski>If I'm in this situation, this is what I

00:42:10.887 --> 00:42:11.367
<v Wojciech>Hmm.

00:42:12.155 --> 00:42:17.525
<v Erica Kuligowski>So it is very good information, but I completely understand it it's never a good situation to

00:42:17.652 --> 00:42:18.163
<v Wojciech>It's quite,

00:42:18.306 --> 00:42:18.735
<v Erica Kuligowski>I, I

00:42:18.913 --> 00:42:20.382
<v Wojciech>can imagine it's, it's quite traumatic.

00:42:20.382 --> 00:42:43.461
<v Wojciech>I mean, in, in this, in this kind of informing people, there's also like this dynamic that, if you have a wildfire developing like, uh, 20 miles from where you live, and it's like moving forward and it's getting closer and closed and you observe how it's getting closer and then you get information, you should go, that's a completely different story than compared to like campfire.

00:42:43.461 --> 00:42:47.181
<v Wojciech>It's, it's, it starts, bam, three hours later, 8:00 AM in the morning.

00:42:47.181 --> 00:42:48.561
<v Wojciech>You need to go now, man.

00:42:48.561 --> 00:42:50.902
<v Wojciech>It, it's, it's, it's already almost late.

00:42:50.902 --> 00:42:53.572
<v Wojciech>Like those are completely different dynamics as well.

00:42:53.668 --> 00:42:54.989
<v Erica Kuligowski>I completely agree with you.

00:42:54.989 --> 00:42:58.648
<v Erica Kuligowski>And that's why NIST has been working and, and others have been working.

00:42:58.648 --> 00:43:10.438
<v Erica Kuligowski>Tom Cova has been working on understanding dire fire situations, DIRE, dire fire situations where they have very little time to leave and then.

00:43:10.438 --> 00:43:22.739
<v Erica Kuligowski>In these situations, should we be thinking about in fire affected areas, having a safe place for people to go, a safe, protected place as a la place of last resort?

00:43:22.739 --> 00:43:26.909
<v Erica Kuligowski>Um, you can't leave you, you know, it's come on too fast.

00:43:26.909 --> 00:43:32.068
<v Erica Kuligowski>Or maybe you are a person who needed extra time to leave and there isn't that time.

00:43:32.068 --> 00:43:38.688
<v Erica Kuligowski>And so that's why thinking about places of last resort for these types of scenarios are so, so important.

00:43:38.688 --> 00:43:41.688
<v Erica Kuligowski>I think we have to keep this in mind.

00:43:41.688 --> 00:43:46.789
<v Erica Kuligowski>You bring up such a good point about the differences in fire dynamics, right?

00:43:46.789 --> 00:43:50.628
<v Erica Kuligowski>We've got fires that have been, as you said, been rolling along the cliffs and,

00:43:51.306 --> 00:43:51.880
<v Wojciech>you see them?

00:43:51.880 --> 00:43:53.710
<v Wojciech>They are two hills away now.

00:43:53.710 --> 00:43:55.061
<v Wojciech>They're one hill away.

00:43:55.061 --> 00:43:57.101
<v Wojciech>You seen the smoke, you seen the flames?

00:43:57.101 --> 00:43:57.550
<v Wojciech>Yeah.

00:43:57.588 --> 00:43:57.918
<v Erica Kuligowski>Yep.

00:43:57.918 --> 00:44:03.108
<v Erica Kuligowski>And that's what happened in the chimney Tops fire, the very first fire that I studied in Tennessee.

00:44:03.108 --> 00:44:09.554
<v Erica Kuligowski>And that's some of the, Studies that we look at, people said, yeah, I saw smoke.

00:44:09.554 --> 00:44:17.974
<v Erica Kuligowski>And a lot of times we say, oh, if you see environmental cues, that is very much meaning that your risk is high and that you leave.

00:44:17.974 --> 00:44:27.755
<v Erica Kuligowski>But when you've been seeing smoke in the horizon for days and days and days and days, that is not an environmental cue that is gonna increase your risk and cause you to go.

00:44:27.755 --> 00:44:38.710
<v Erica Kuligowski>And so understanding the length of fires, um, the, the cues that people have been seeing over time, or as you said, all of a sudden it ramps up and there is no choice.

00:44:38.710 --> 00:44:43.119
<v Erica Kuligowski>Completely different scenarios and meaning completely different behavior by people.

00:44:43.773 --> 00:44:49.443
<v Wojciech>I'll, I'll put another twist on that I was researching and also find, found another interesting paper.

00:44:49.443 --> 00:44:55.833
<v Wojciech>I mean, it's not very hard because there's like a ton of interesting papers you have, but, uh, but I found this one.

00:44:55.833 --> 00:44:58.894
<v Wojciech>Um, how about people who are not the citizens?

00:44:58.894 --> 00:45:12.628
<v Wojciech>How about people who are there, like tourists or, you know, they, they, they're just visiting or they're just passing by and they're, they're absolutely not, familiar with the local fire season or, or fire behaviors.

00:45:12.628 --> 00:45:15.463
<v Wojciech>Um, how, how different is, is, is it in that case?

00:45:16.213 --> 00:45:23.112
<v Erica Kuligowski>This is such an important question and something that, um, Enrico and Lund has been working on.

00:45:23.112 --> 00:45:35.443
<v Erica Kuligowski>And I also a new study that we just finished, um, looking at a fire that was, that happened in a touristy area in December, 2024.

00:45:35.443 --> 00:45:38.052
<v Erica Kuligowski>And so hopefully that report will come out soon.

00:45:38.052 --> 00:45:40.032
<v Erica Kuligowski>But what we found just.

00:45:40.032 --> 00:45:48.163
<v Erica Kuligowski>Kind of an overarching look at our findings is that we did talk to visitors.

00:45:48.163 --> 00:45:49.333
<v Erica Kuligowski>It was a smaller group.

00:45:49.333 --> 00:45:50.233
<v Erica Kuligowski>It was a smaller group.

00:45:50.233 --> 00:45:52.242
<v Erica Kuligowski>So we wish we would've been able to speak with more.

00:45:52.242 --> 00:45:57.793
<v Erica Kuligowski>And there were visitors from inside of the state, inside of Australia and international.

00:45:57.793 --> 00:46:08.811
<v Erica Kuligowski>And we saw very much, uh, differences in how people were seeking information or even understanding where to go for information depending upon where they were.

00:46:08.811 --> 00:46:18.951
<v Erica Kuligowski>So if they came from my state and they went, you know, a couple of hours up to the Grampians, which is where this fire happened, they had the app on their phone.

00:46:18.951 --> 00:46:21.440
<v Erica Kuligowski>They knew the fire risk and they were set.

00:46:21.440 --> 00:46:23.541
<v Erica Kuligowski>And a lot of times they didn't even travel.

00:46:23.541 --> 00:46:27.380
<v Erica Kuligowski>They saw that it was dangerous and they decided not to go.

00:46:27.380 --> 00:46:35.150
<v Erica Kuligowski>Whereas if you have international, they, they're not going to be able to have known what app to download, nowhere to go for information.

00:46:35.150 --> 00:46:37.795
<v Erica Kuligowski>And what we were interested in is were the.

00:46:37.795 --> 00:46:43.561
<v Erica Kuligowski>Tourists, like were there facilities where they're staying, communicating with them.

00:46:43.561 --> 00:46:45.150
<v Erica Kuligowski>And in some cases they were getting

00:46:45.179 --> 00:46:45.599
<v Wojciech>Mm-hmm.

00:46:45.840 --> 00:46:47.641
<v Erica Kuligowski>from their accommodation provider.

00:46:47.641 --> 00:46:55.320
<v Erica Kuligowski>In some cases, maybe not as much because the accommodation provider was also trying to protect their property and themselves.

00:46:55.320 --> 00:47:02.251
<v Erica Kuligowski>And so it gets to be quite complicated when we talk about tourists, how they seek information and what they decide to do.

00:47:02.251 --> 00:47:09.840
<v Erica Kuligowski>And I think we need much more research on how to communicate with international visitors.

00:47:09.840 --> 00:47:13.141
<v Erica Kuligowski>It was actually a very cool, so we have, sorry if I'm going off

00:47:13.219 --> 00:47:13.934
<v Wojciech>No, please go.

00:47:14.010 --> 00:47:17.896
<v Erica Kuligowski>but we have a, a Natural Hazards Research Australia, which is a.

00:47:17.896 --> 00:47:25.797
<v Erica Kuligowski>National research funding body here in Australia, and they, every year have a disaster challenge.

00:47:25.797 --> 00:47:29.728
<v Erica Kuligowski>And one of them was how to communicate with hard to reach groups

00:47:29.795 --> 00:47:30.186
<v Wojciech>Mm-hmm.

00:47:30.297 --> 00:47:32.306
<v Erica Kuligowski>and, it's normally like teams.

00:47:32.306 --> 00:47:35.755
<v Erica Kuligowski>It could be students, it could be PhD students, it could be research fellows.

00:47:35.755 --> 00:47:49.351
<v Erica Kuligowski>And the team that won had really interesting idea that when you are out and about, like say you're at the beach and you're trying to get on the wifi, before you get onto wifi, you have a video that you see.

00:47:49.351 --> 00:47:55.516
<v Erica Kuligowski>like you've gotta watch this video for 30 seconds or 45 seconds before you can get onto wifi.

00:47:55.516 --> 00:48:03.407
<v Erica Kuligowski>And that video tells you, here's the app to download, here's where you get information, here's what the fire risk is in your area.

00:48:03.407 --> 00:48:10.936
<v Erica Kuligowski>I don't know if they've moved that forward at all, but it's such, it's such a good way to, you've got a captured audience.

00:48:10.936 --> 00:48:13.456
<v Erica Kuligowski>They need the internet for what they're doing.

00:48:13.456 --> 00:48:18.244
<v Erica Kuligowski>They're international, so they're not gonna be on, you know, data, or they may not be on data.

00:48:18.244 --> 00:48:24.994
<v Erica Kuligowski>And then you have an opportunity to tell them a bit more about their fire risk and how to get information about what to do in a fire.

00:48:24.994 --> 00:48:28.324
<v Erica Kuligowski>So we've got a lot of work to do, I think, for tourists.

00:48:28.496 --> 00:48:35.630
<v Wojciech>I wonder how effective would be the, your usual means of letting people know, like, you know, sirens and, and

00:48:35.773 --> 00:48:38.135
<v Erica Kuligowski>Ah, you're asking some great questions

00:48:38.217 --> 00:48:42.202
<v Wojciech>did my research 40 episodes in.

00:48:42.501 --> 00:48:43.550
<v Erica Kuligowski>That's professional.

00:48:43.550 --> 00:48:45.050
<v Erica Kuligowski>I know you are.

00:48:45.050 --> 00:48:47.931
<v Erica Kuligowski>I would never, never say otherwise.

00:48:47.931 --> 00:48:56.907
<v Erica Kuligowski>So sirens, oh, such a good question and So sirens are extremely helpful, but they've got their limitations.

00:48:56.907 --> 00:49:00.987
<v Erica Kuligowski>So sirens are only meant to warn people outdoors.

00:49:00.987 --> 00:49:05.728
<v Erica Kuligowski>Um, and we can't rely on them in indoors.

00:49:05.728 --> 00:49:07.677
<v Erica Kuligowski>Um, they're not what they're meant to do.

00:49:07.677 --> 00:49:18.987
<v Erica Kuligowski>And depending upon the design of the siren, um, sometimes you can have information provided along with the sound, but sometimes that's quite difficult because the siren could be like a 360 degree.

00:49:18.987 --> 00:49:24.507
<v Erica Kuligowski>It could be one that turns and you only hear it like when it's in facing in your direction.

00:49:24.507 --> 00:49:30.184
<v Erica Kuligowski>But sirens need to be accompanied be accompanied with information.

00:49:30.184 --> 00:49:36.094
<v Erica Kuligowski>Something telling people this is what the siren is about and this is what you need to do.

00:49:36.094 --> 00:49:53.014
<v Erica Kuligowski>Sirens are only meant to alert us, and they're only effective if people know where to go for further information or if you give information as part of that siren system, because that's the warning piece that we absolutely need, that the siren isn't going to be enough.

00:49:53.014 --> 00:50:07.565
<v Erica Kuligowski>And there's been a lot of, sort of back and forth about whether, um, you know, the sirens exec, for example, should have sounded, uh, in the Maui fire, uh, that happened in 2023, uh, in Lena.

00:50:07.565 --> 00:50:27.494
<v Erica Kuligowski>And, I think the thing that's important to recognize is it's not just good enough to just sound it and make sure that, well, the information is vital to have at the same time, it's also important to train and educate the population on the siren for specific types of events.

00:50:27.494 --> 00:50:43.784
<v Erica Kuligowski>So if it's only been used for tsunami, or it's only been used for cyclones, but then for this event you wanna use it for fire, that's a difficult decision because the community wouldn't have been trained to associate sirens with fire.

00:50:43.784 --> 00:50:51.853
<v Erica Kuligowski>Um, but more important above all of that is that information needs to be, come along to, needs to come along with the siren

00:50:52.221 --> 00:50:57.981
<v Wojciech>they probably would also have a challenge in distinguishing like, if there's like three different sounds.

00:50:57.981 --> 00:51:01.911
<v Wojciech>Like it is not easy to interpret if it's just the sound of siren.

00:51:01.911 --> 00:51:06.831
<v Wojciech>And if I put myself in the position of a tourist, you know, I would just look at locals, what they are doing.

00:51:06.831 --> 00:51:10.820
<v Wojciech>So it's, it's really key importance to train the local population.

00:51:10.820 --> 00:51:13.764
<v Wojciech>And that also kind of helps with the, tourists.

00:51:14.021 --> 00:51:14.561
<v Erica Kuligowski>For sure.

00:51:14.561 --> 00:51:15.371
<v Erica Kuligowski>Absolutely.

00:51:15.371 --> 00:51:16.152
<v Erica Kuligowski>100%.

00:51:16.152 --> 00:51:21.012
<v Erica Kuligowski>But sirens is a good way to get people alerted that something is going

00:51:21.264 --> 00:51:21.344
<v Wojciech>Hmm.

00:51:21.822 --> 00:51:30.612
<v Erica Kuligowski>and then hopefully you get them to turn on the radio or turn on the tv, but you have to make sure that the information's there or people tune it off.

00:51:30.612 --> 00:51:34.117
<v Erica Kuligowski>They're not saying anything about it on the radio, so it must not be

00:51:34.215 --> 00:51:37.846
<v Wojciech>Uh, I have, I have one really hilarious siren story.

00:51:37.846 --> 00:51:41.724
<v Wojciech>So I had, a student, uh, Diego from Spain.

00:51:41.724 --> 00:51:47.543
<v Wojciech>He, he won an SFP research grant, and he came to my office to do tunneling research.

00:51:47.543 --> 00:51:58.284
<v Wojciech>And, and he came to Warsaw and he chose a hotel in the middle downtown Warsaw next to the big Soviet building in very middle of Warsaw.

00:51:58.284 --> 00:52:00.083
<v Wojciech>He came to Poland.

00:52:00.083 --> 00:52:02.213
<v Wojciech>Uh, he, he, he met me in the office.

00:52:02.213 --> 00:52:03.083
<v Wojciech>He went to the hotel.

00:52:03.083 --> 00:52:07.853
<v Wojciech>I forgot to tell him like it was the 1st of August.

00:52:07.853 --> 00:52:11.664
<v Wojciech>1st of August is the anniversary of Warsaw Uprising.

00:52:11.664 --> 00:52:17.393
<v Wojciech>So it is a very big deal in Warsaw, like you can Google in YouTube, the city that stops for a minute.

00:52:17.393 --> 00:52:21.266
<v Wojciech>5:00 PM Everyone in the city stops.

00:52:21.266 --> 00:52:26.126
<v Wojciech>The whole city goes dead, sirens go everywhere.

00:52:26.126 --> 00:52:36.166
<v Wojciech>And in the location, very front of his hotel, there's probably gathering of like a hundred thousand people with, you know, flowers and everything shouting.

00:52:36.166 --> 00:52:43.005
<v Wojciech>Like there's basically one sea of fire and smoke at 5:00 PM accompanied by sirens.

00:52:43.005 --> 00:52:49.353
<v Wojciech>And he's there at 20 floor of that hotel, absolutely unaware of that fact.

00:52:49.353 --> 00:52:57.302
<v Wojciech>And suddenly sirens go off, he looks outside and there's a flood of fire air going out.

00:52:57.639 --> 00:52:58.599
<v Erica Kuligowski>gosh,

00:52:58.922 --> 00:53:01.353
<v Wojciech>the cultural context is so sometimes

00:53:01.389 --> 00:53:02.349
<v Erica Kuligowski>yes.

00:53:02.349 --> 00:53:04.840
<v Erica Kuligowski>What What did he think it was?

00:53:04.840 --> 00:53:05.829
<v Erica Kuligowski>I'm so curious.

00:53:05.829 --> 00:53:06.579
<v Erica Kuligowski>Did he tell you?

00:53:06.918 --> 00:53:10.233
<v Wojciech>Like he thought it is, like uprising or something.

00:53:10.233 --> 00:53:10.893
<v Wojciech>Like, he was

00:53:11.139 --> 00:53:11.230
<v Erica Kuligowski>geez.

00:53:11.282 --> 00:53:16.202
<v Wojciech>very, very very confused, but there was no shots fired.

00:53:16.202 --> 00:53:18.063
<v Wojciech>So he, he assumed that it's probably,

00:53:18.074 --> 00:53:18.175
<v Erica Kuligowski>God.

00:53:18.362 --> 00:53:19.592
<v Wojciech>probably fine.

00:53:19.592 --> 00:53:26.244
<v Wojciech>I really forgot to tell him like, dude, it's, first of all, 'cause there there's gonna be some interesting things happening.

00:53:26.244 --> 00:53:29.094
<v Wojciech>I just really, really, really should have told him.

00:53:29.094 --> 00:53:30.295
<v Wojciech>Oh man.

00:53:30.295 --> 00:53:36.820
<v Wojciech>But, uh, anyway, uh, to, to finish this off, what kind of gaps do you see?

00:53:36.820 --> 00:53:40.061
<v Wojciech>Like what's the biggest hurdle for you right now?

00:53:40.061 --> 00:53:52.226
<v Wojciech>Data models, complexity, like what's the biggest, uh, blockage on the pathway to having this worked out into something that we could practically use.

00:53:52.864 --> 00:54:09.719
<v Erica Kuligowski>I think that, that, that's sort of my next hurdle is to collect more quantifiable data and then work with evacuation modelers to try to translate that, those findings into, into

00:54:10.032 --> 00:54:10.452
<v Wojciech>Mm-hmm.

00:54:10.829 --> 00:54:15.599
<v Erica Kuligowski>So I wouldn't maybe say it's a gap, but is it is a true future goal.

00:54:15.599 --> 00:54:19.090
<v Erica Kuligowski>I know we can do it, but it takes a bit more data.

00:54:19.090 --> 00:54:28.601
<v Erica Kuligowski>I think, as you also nicely alluded to, like earlier in our, in our talk, that we do need to bring in.

00:54:28.601 --> 00:54:31.871
<v Erica Kuligowski>All, all of the data sets that we can.

00:54:31.871 --> 00:54:40.061
<v Erica Kuligowski>And what I would like to see more of, we've tried to do a little bit of this, but it's difficult is to have multiple data sets for the same

00:54:40.293 --> 00:54:40.713
<v Wojciech>Mm-hmm.

00:54:41.081 --> 00:54:59.291
<v Erica Kuligowski>So we, we've got the large scale sets and then we've got some interviews or surveys that we can try to put some understanding behind what we're finding because it's a lot easier to quantify the larger sets, but a little bit difficult if we don't know sort of some of the whys behind it.

00:54:59.291 --> 00:55:24.170
<v Erica Kuligowski>So I don't necessarily think that there are big gaps that we can't overcome the moment, but I just think it's bringing the teams together and having the different disciplines talk to one another and the social sciences, talk with the engineers, speak with the computer scientists, and work very well together, and to try to bring in some of these social science findings into the tools.

00:55:24.782 --> 00:55:31.288
<v Wojciech>Is it hard for you to go from the modeling of like, let's say building scale to a, a community or regional scale?

00:55:31.288 --> 00:55:33.027
<v Wojciech>Do you use different tools?

00:55:33.027 --> 00:55:35.722
<v Wojciech>Uh, how, how does this scale shift look like?

00:55:36.201 --> 00:55:36.440
<v Erica Kuligowski>Yeah.

00:55:36.440 --> 00:55:39.231
<v Erica Kuligowski>So it actually, it was, it was quite difficult for me.

00:55:39.231 --> 00:55:44.001
<v Erica Kuligowski>I didn't necessarily think that I could go directly from buildings into wildfires.

00:55:44.001 --> 00:55:47.001
<v Erica Kuligowski>I, I didn't have that thought.

00:55:47.001 --> 00:55:55.632
<v Erica Kuligowski>The first thing I did was met with some of the giants in social science, like Sarah McCaffrey, uh, from the Forest Service recently retired.

00:55:55.632 --> 00:55:57.000
<v Erica Kuligowski>and I.

00:55:57.000 --> 00:56:04.762
<v Erica Kuligowski>I wanted to understand just the lay of the land in wildfires, but the evacuation tools that we use are different.

00:56:04.762 --> 00:56:10.913
<v Erica Kuligowski>So in building fires, right, we're using the building simulation tools in wildfires.

00:56:10.913 --> 00:56:13.621
<v Erica Kuligowski>had to develop some tools.

00:56:13.621 --> 00:56:15.061
<v Erica Kuligowski>Wound is one of them.

00:56:15.061 --> 00:56:19.650
<v Erica Kuligowski>Um, NIST funded, uh, ity tool that brings in.

00:56:19.650 --> 00:56:29.775
<v Erica Kuligowski>It's sort of a modular approach in bringing in the, and I know you've had podcasts on this, bringing in the fire modeling with the traffic modeling, with the pedestrian modeling.

00:56:29.775 --> 00:56:33.795
<v Erica Kuligowski>And so that is new for, for me.

00:56:33.795 --> 00:56:36.795
<v Erica Kuligowski>I'm not a traffic, engineering expert.

00:56:36.795 --> 00:56:40.394
<v Erica Kuligowski>Um, and so I've had to sort of dig into some of those.

00:56:40.394 --> 00:56:51.324
<v Erica Kuligowski>you know, to dig into some of the reports, looking at a lot of non-emergency transport studies in how they collect data on what people's preferences are.

00:56:51.324 --> 00:56:54.864
<v Erica Kuligowski>But also, like you said, the tools are different.

00:56:54.864 --> 00:56:56.724
<v Erica Kuligowski>They've had to be sort of developed.

00:56:56.724 --> 00:57:03.715
<v Erica Kuligowski>There's also a tool, um, in Australia developed by C-S-I-R-O that also does bushfire evacuation.

00:57:03.715 --> 00:57:06.114
<v Erica Kuligowski>So there are tools that exist.

00:57:06.114 --> 00:57:11.425
<v Erica Kuligowski>They've had to sort of bring in the traffic and the pedestrian and the fire, which is unique.

00:57:11.425 --> 00:57:14.106
<v Erica Kuligowski>we don't obviously need the traffic for the building

00:57:14.173 --> 00:57:14.393
<v Wojciech>Hmm.

00:57:14.585 --> 00:57:17.195
<v Erica Kuligowski>but we do need the pedestrian and the fire stuff.

00:57:17.195 --> 00:57:21.666
<v Erica Kuligowski>So there is an some added comple complexity to that.

00:57:21.666 --> 00:57:24.365
<v Erica Kuligowski>But honestly for me, that's what makes it really interesting.

00:57:24.365 --> 00:57:36.068
<v Erica Kuligowski>I have really enjoyed, uh, diving into a new field and meeting new people and learning, how to do this well and actually try to protect people in bushfire prone areas.

00:57:36.126 --> 00:57:40.806
<v Wojciech>And, and I think what you're doing is, is not just relevant for bushel wildfires.

00:57:40.806 --> 00:57:53.021
<v Wojciech>I think at some point a lot of that will come back to the building people because, you know, a human is a human and, and I, I already see a lot of things that could be.

00:57:53.021 --> 00:58:10.777
<v Wojciech>Incorporated in building evacuation, especially when we talk about, you know, optimizing the evacuation and, uh, minimizing the whatever you would like to minimize hazard risk, downtime, uh, waiting time, whatever your variable would be.

00:58:10.777 --> 00:58:12.451
<v Wojciech>These are also important.

00:58:12.552 --> 00:58:13.541
<v Erica Kuligowski>I agree.

00:58:13.541 --> 00:58:17.023
<v Erica Kuligowski>And I just wanted to say one thing, you mentioned something really important.

00:58:17.023 --> 00:58:21.793
<v Erica Kuligowski>You said that you think that fire engineers, um, will be working in the wildfire space

00:58:21.896 --> 00:58:22.346
<v Wojciech>They will.

00:58:22.813 --> 00:58:24.492
<v Erica Kuligowski>And I completely agree with you.

00:58:24.492 --> 00:58:37.782
<v Erica Kuligowski>I feel like that's what the Society of Fire Protection Engineers is working on through the research foundation and their wooey focus and, and helping to understand the role of fire safety and fire protection engineers in the wildfire space.

00:58:37.782 --> 00:58:42.672
<v Erica Kuligowski>And as you know, like as fire protection or fire safety engineers, we learn how to use.

00:58:42.672 --> 00:58:44.972
<v Erica Kuligowski>The evacuation models.

00:58:44.972 --> 00:58:46.983
<v Erica Kuligowski>We, we learn that these tools exist.

00:58:46.983 --> 00:58:53.342
<v Erica Kuligowski>We, we ha you know, we've got to understand how to calculate evacuation from a building.

00:58:53.342 --> 00:59:05.552
<v Erica Kuligowski>And I think that we can those same tools, um, some training on the wildfire tools that exist and really use our knowledge from r set and a set.

00:59:05.552 --> 00:59:18.961
<v Erica Kuligowski>And, and Enrico's over and, and team have already been sort of working and bringing that NRC, university of Greenwich already been bringing a set and r set to the wildfire space with and wa set.

00:59:18.961 --> 00:59:20.911
<v Erica Kuligowski>So this really, really exciting work.

00:59:20.911 --> 00:59:25.981
<v Erica Kuligowski>Imperial has also been involved, so I think there's a big role for fire safety engineers.

00:59:25.981 --> 00:59:26.552
<v Erica Kuligowski>If I could just

00:59:26.724 --> 00:59:28.105
<v Wojciech>Yeah, abs no, absolutely.

00:59:28.105 --> 00:59:32.364
<v Wojciech>I hope just don don't, they don't make BA and B Rs for BFIs.

00:59:32.364 --> 00:59:32.940
<v Wojciech>But,

00:59:33.422 --> 00:59:33.692
<v Erica Kuligowski>Yeah,

00:59:34.135 --> 00:59:34.315
<v Wojciech>but

00:59:34.351 --> 00:59:38.342
<v Erica Kuligowski>we'll just take the w we'll just, we'll take, we'll take a W set and w set.

00:59:38.349 --> 00:59:46.045
<v Wojciech>I, I, while I a hundred percent agree with what you just said, I've, I see the same thing from the opposite side.

00:59:46.045 --> 01:00:02.632
<v Wojciech>I see communities that could use this, and I see communities as clients who have money for this because this type of civil defense stuff is actually something that is fundable at the regional level.

01:00:02.632 --> 01:00:09.112
<v Wojciech>If I think about European Union landscape, this is something you could get you funding for, like.

01:00:09.112 --> 01:00:16.588
<v Wojciech>I absolutely see you being a community that believes they are, prone to such a hazard.

01:00:16.588 --> 01:00:18.327
<v Wojciech>Reach out for EU funding.

01:00:18.327 --> 01:00:20.847
<v Wojciech>We need to improve our resilience, right?

01:00:20.847 --> 01:00:27.391
<v Wojciech>A small project, get a hundred thousand euros, hire a fire safety engineer and get something done for yourself.

01:00:27.391 --> 01:00:37.853
<v Wojciech>I see a commercial pathway with people having pathways to get funds and spend those funds on, on good service, which fire safety engineers could provide in the future.

01:00:37.853 --> 01:00:40.193
<v Wojciech>I, I really see this from the business perspective.

01:00:40.666 --> 01:00:40.905
<v Erica Kuligowski>Hmm,

01:00:41.003 --> 01:00:41.302
<v Wojciech>Uh,

01:00:41.356 --> 01:00:41.746
<v Erica Kuligowski>do too.

01:00:41.746 --> 01:00:51.635
<v Erica Kuligowski>I think there are some, um, businesses already that are offering a wildfire, platform, working with communities or working with, uh, third parties, working with communities.

01:00:51.635 --> 01:00:52.806
<v Erica Kuligowski>So I absolutely agree.

01:00:52.806 --> 01:00:55.175
<v Erica Kuligowski>I think it's different depending upon what country

01:00:55.333 --> 01:00:55.753
<v Wojciech>absolutely.

01:00:55.753 --> 01:00:56.534
<v Wojciech>Of course, of course.

01:00:56.534 --> 01:00:56.923
<v Wojciech>Yeah.

01:00:57.036 --> 01:01:00.726
<v Erica Kuligowski>so maybe it's sort of, it will continue to grow.

01:01:01.289 --> 01:01:05.338
<v Wojciech>But it has to major a little bit, but it's going into that direction.

01:01:05.338 --> 01:01:07.739
<v Wojciech>It definitely is going that, that direction.

01:01:08.106 --> 01:01:08.496
<v Erica Kuligowski>agree.

01:01:08.518 --> 01:01:17.762
<v Wojciech>Uh, one thing I I need to say about human behavior in fire community, this community is one of the best integrated parts of fire science.

01:01:17.762 --> 01:01:24.211
<v Wojciech>And even, you know, this interview you've named, dropped like 30 different people from like 20 different institutions.

01:01:24.211 --> 01:01:25.742
<v Wojciech>And I, I really appre

01:01:25.960 --> 01:01:26.710
<v Erica Kuligowski>Sorry about

01:01:26.882 --> 01:01:27.751
<v Wojciech>No, no, no.

01:01:27.751 --> 01:01:28.246
<v Wojciech>I, I, I,

01:01:28.449 --> 01:01:28.809
<v Erica Kuligowski>people.

01:01:29.036 --> 01:01:35.192
<v Wojciech>I, I I really am appreciate that because that's the level of integration that most parts of the fire science don't have.

01:01:35.192 --> 01:01:42.632
<v Wojciech>And if you don't mind on that note, I'll go, I'm gonna drop the fact that, uh, there's a conference happening in Lund, uh, in October.

01:01:42.632 --> 01:01:43.742
<v Wojciech>Uh.

01:01:43.742 --> 01:01:52.561
<v Wojciech>Maybe we, we probably should mention that it's six to eighth, October 26th at, uh, campus Helsingborg in Lund.

01:01:52.561 --> 01:01:56.282
<v Wojciech>I've just learned that it's like 30 minutes away from Lund.

01:01:56.282 --> 01:02:00.061
<v Wojciech>Um, I hope to visit Enrico, uh, next week in that campus.

01:02:00.061 --> 01:02:07.952
<v Wojciech>So I've just researched and it's as easy to reach as learned is, and I think it's gonna be packed with some really nice talks.

01:02:07.952 --> 01:02:09.512
<v Wojciech>I saw you in the organizing committee.

01:02:09.512 --> 01:02:09.931
<v Wojciech>Can you

01:02:10.059 --> 01:02:10.539
<v Erica Kuligowski>yes.

01:02:10.539 --> 01:02:10.900
<v Erica Kuligowski>I,

01:02:10.922 --> 01:02:12.302
<v Wojciech>share and advertise a little bit?

01:02:12.681 --> 01:02:14.900
<v Erica Kuligowski>It is gonna be an exciting conference.

01:02:14.900 --> 01:02:18.351
<v Erica Kuligowski>Um, we got a number of really great abstracts.

01:02:18.351 --> 01:02:23.751
<v Erica Kuligowski>I know that, um, Daniel Nielsen and, uh, Enrico Ronchi are going through them now.

01:02:23.751 --> 01:02:30.056
<v Erica Kuligowski>We have, given our scores and so hopefully we'll be hearing soon who the, about the program.

01:02:30.056 --> 01:02:37.797
<v Erica Kuligowski>It should be a really exciting one about buildings and about wildfires and, um, and other, maybe even some safety and security.

01:02:37.797 --> 01:02:45.987
<v Erica Kuligowski>So stay tuned and hopefully you'll, you'll, uh, be able to attend because it's gonna be some exciting stuff and it hasn't happened for us in a while.

01:02:45.987 --> 01:02:56.039
<v Erica Kuligowski>So this is sort of bringing back the conference, has, it's been a little while since we've had the last one, so I'm very excited about it and I, hopefully, hopefully other people will be able to attend.

01:02:56.202 --> 01:02:57.757
<v Wojciech>It, It, it, looks, uh.

01:02:57.757 --> 01:02:58.942
<v Wojciech>Solid.

01:02:58.942 --> 01:02:59.811
<v Wojciech>And there's also,

01:02:59.878 --> 01:03:00.119
<v Erica Kuligowski>Yes,

01:03:00.351 --> 01:03:06.101
<v Wojciech>and I think KO is also having a workshop related to accessibility in his, ERC grant.

01:03:06.101 --> 01:03:08.081
<v Wojciech>So that's very interesting.

01:03:08.081 --> 01:03:10.259
<v Wojciech>next week I'll know more because I'll visit him.

01:03:10.259 --> 01:03:13.829
<v Wojciech>So, uh, if, if, if I learn more, I'll, I'll share more online.

01:03:13.829 --> 01:03:16.168
<v Wojciech>And, and for now, uh, Ika, thank you.

01:03:16.168 --> 01:03:28.876
<v Wojciech>Thank you so much for, for joining me here and, and sharing, uh, the progress on, on those, large scale fire evacuations and, and what happens between when people learn about the, the fire and, uh, evacuate safely.

01:03:29.784 --> 01:03:30.864
<v Erica Kuligowski>Thank you for having me on.

01:03:30.864 --> 01:03:32.454
<v Erica Kuligowski>I've really enjoyed this talk today.

01:03:32.454 --> 01:03:32.994
<v Erica Kuligowski>It's been fun.

01:03:32.994 --> 01:03:33.023
<v Erica Kuligowski>I

01:03:33.510 --> 01:03:34.019
<v Wojciech>And that's it.

01:03:34.019 --> 01:03:34.800
<v Wojciech>Thank you for listening.

01:03:34.800 --> 01:03:43.679
<v Wojciech>As promised, it was not just an interview about the decision making, but also a high level overview of the entire field of human behavior in fires.

01:03:43.679 --> 01:03:47.144
<v Wojciech>It's such a great field, great people in it.

01:03:47.144 --> 01:03:51.434
<v Wojciech>Uh, as I sat, I'm visiting Enrico, I just finished visiting him.

01:03:51.434 --> 01:03:55.215
<v Wojciech>He put weird stuff on my head and made me evacuate in vr.

01:03:55.215 --> 01:03:56.655
<v Wojciech>It was fantastic.

01:03:56.655 --> 01:04:06.434
<v Wojciech>And, uh, he, the, I've checked the Helburg campus of Lund University does exist and is the place where the big human behavior in foreign evacuation conference.

01:04:06.434 --> 01:04:10.170
<v Wojciech>Will happen this year for which all of you are invited.

01:04:10.170 --> 01:04:12.659
<v Wojciech>And, uh, link is in the show notes.

01:04:12.659 --> 01:04:19.289
<v Wojciech>As for the episode, I think it's very interesting to investigate what people do after they choose to leave.

01:04:19.289 --> 01:04:29.309
<v Wojciech>You know, there's something like, if you think about the classical phases of evacuation, uh, pre evacuation, distribution times, you know, the stuff that we will be normally accounting for.

01:04:29.309 --> 01:04:31.920
<v Wojciech>This is absolutely something I've never been accounting for.

01:04:31.920 --> 01:04:32.849
<v Wojciech>Like if.

01:04:32.849 --> 01:04:51.757
<v Wojciech>Someone decided to evacuate, they go in my models, if someone is, uh, over the time they're supposed to evacuate, unless I have an extremely specific task, uh, for the person, like a return for a person that needs help, for example, and I explicitly program that.

01:04:51.757 --> 01:04:54.668
<v Wojciech>I don't really account for that.

01:04:54.668 --> 01:05:01.027
<v Wojciech>So interesting to, to see what that background noise can do to your evacuation process.

01:05:01.027 --> 01:05:07.628
<v Wojciech>And I hope Erica succeeds in developing those models and they become a useful tool for our profession.

01:05:07.628 --> 01:05:09.907
<v Wojciech>That would be it for today's episode.

01:05:09.907 --> 01:05:14.467
<v Wojciech>I hope you've enjoyed a little bit of human behavior in fires and the podcast.

01:05:14.467 --> 01:05:18.847
<v Wojciech>And, uh, come back here next week for more fire science coming your way.

01:05:18.847 --> 01:05:20.887
<v Wojciech>See you there next Wednesday cheer.

01:05:20.887 --> 01:05:21.427
<v Wojciech>Bye.