627: A Mediocre Quarterback Class

00:00:02
Speaker 1: This is the Labor Podcast with your host JJ zacher Retha j J Zacher reson. What's up everyone, It's JJ Zacharyesen and this is episode six hundred and twenty seven of the Late Round Fantasy Football podcast sponsored by FanDuel. Thanks for tuning in. You're probably a little sick and tired of only hearing my input about prospects in this year's class, right like you probably want a little bit more flavor, So I got you. Each year I bring on guests to talk about incoming rookies. Today's show is all about quarterbacks. Next week will be wide receivers, the week after that running backs. For today's quarterback show, I brought on a yearly guest, my friend Jim Snis. I worked with Jim for years over at Number five and FanDuel, and I can tell you that it's tough to find a better analyst. He's worked with quarterback data for years, so I was excited to pick his brain about this year's class, which seems to be pretty underwhelming. Jim explained the data that he looks at and prospecting quarterbacks. He talks about where this year's draft class stacks up to others in recent history. He gives us player comparisons, and so much more. It's a really good interview to get you up to speed on this class. Now, before we get into that interview, baseball fans, the lockout is over and the start of the twenty twenty two MLB season is set, with opening Day scheduled for April seventh. Fandel is ready to get you in on the action with Daily Fantasy Baseball. All you have to do is go to Fandel dot com and click on the Thursday MLB Opening Day marquee contest. Then make your lineup with players, sit back and enjoy the start of America's most beautiful game. For only four dollars, you can enter a lineup and compete for a chance to win part of four hundred thousand dollars. Head over to fandle dot com today and get ready for MLB Opening Day with Fandel Daily Fantasy. Eligibility restructions apply. Go to fandle dot com or download the fandle app for more details. Now, let's get to this interview with Jim. All right, Jim, so we all know that quarterback evaluation could be pretty tough, but you've got a coquarterback model that helps predict how good incoming rookies are going to be. So I'm curious what kind of data inputs are you looking at to make that model successful.

00:02:08
Speaker 2: Yeah, so back testing to see which quarterbacks who go in the first round of successful, and it's first round limited because I wanted to see like typically non first rounders don't do a whole lot, so I focus mostly on first rounders to see what translated well. And what that led to was putting efficiency in the model. So looking at their final year QBR because that accounts for rushing and includes sacks, it accounts or competition stuff like that. There is aya or a justice yards per attempt too, but the primary efficiency number is total QBR because of the reasons mentioned their age like just raw age, not breakout age, not like anything like that. Just raw age is in there. Because you look at successful first round picks, they tend to be younger guys. And then also experience level. So for me, that's the number of games with ten plus pass attempts because I want to, you know, see how much volume of there was in there. So if you combine agent experience, love, you can get pretty far based on that because it's similar to what you discuss a lot with like wide receivers, like early declare stuff, because if you are in the NFL draft as a younger experienced player, what that means is A you were talented enough to earn playing time right away, and b you were good enough to declare early. You know, be told you should declare early and stuff like that. So it's not because like, oh, young people are better, it's because it's an indicator of talent if you force your way onto the playing field earlier or able to declare earlier. So you know, looking back at first round quarterback since twenty ten, there have been eleven guys who have been top ten in number fires total unexpected points in one third of their qualified season, So eleven successful i would say, first round picks, and they've ranked on average and the eighty second percentile of my model pre draft, so not accounting for draft capital, they're looking at those guys and then eighty second percentile the less successful first round picks, and then sixty second percent on average, So it's a pretty big gap. If you look at the post draft model, which does include draft stock, it's ninety first percentile for the hits versus eighty third percentile for the misses. So obviously I think it's jacked up because it's just first round picks there. But in draft capital does matter a lot. But it does seem like at least putting some weight in what the model says can lead us down the right path to seeing who is more likely to succeed.

00:04:22
Speaker 1: So given that model, you know, there's been a lot of talk about this quarterback class and this quarterback class not being great, you know, getting a lot of hate. But given that model, how does this class stack up against classes in recent history.

00:04:35
Speaker 2: Yeah, the hate's pretty fair. I'll say, I think that you look at it, I want to look at the guys, the top five guys in each class. So comparing the top five guys by ratings for this year versus the top five in draft capital from previous years twenty ten on, and this is the first time that not a single guy in the top five was in the eightieth percentile or higher of my pre draft model. There's never been a class where there's been nobody in the top five and the eightieth percentile higher. The before this, the record for the lowest high ranked guy was eighty six percentile. That was in twenty thirteen Gino Smith eighty six percentile. That was EJ manual season. We know how that class worked out, so that's not great. So there is, like I would say, a historic lack of star power in this class. The depth isn't as bad. It's better there. On average, the top five guys in this year's class are in the sixty seventh percentile of my pre draft model. Last year they were ninetieth percentile on average, so probably should have gotten a quarterback then if you could. So sixty seventh is not that bad. It's just not as good as last year. But you know it's not historically bad as it is based on star power. But the worst one by that method was twenty eleven. So yeah, Cam Newton, he was very good. Andy Dalton was fine. But other guys in the top five there were Christian Ponder, Jake Locker, Blaine Gabbert. They were all twentieth percent dole or worse. Nobody in the top five year is that bad. Like Malik will is the lowest rank guy, He's much better than those guys. So it's not nearly as bad from a death perspective, just like not any real like true star power here.

00:06:09
Speaker 1: So given that, and given you know what we've seen historically, what your numbers say, do you think that there are any quarterbacks in this year's class, then that sort of warrant top ten consideration.

00:06:19
Speaker 2: Probably not. I wouldn't personally, And that's from someone who like is generally pro taking a quarterback early, just because like it's such a position. If you're in position to get a quarterback early, you should take advantage. But every single guy in this class has reasons we should doubt both their floor and their ceiling. It's not just doubting their floor, it's not just doubting their ceiling. Every single guy has a reason to doubt both those things. If I were doubting just their floor, fine, that's totally okay, because I don't care about floor that much. You can get mahomes, you get allan it's worth it to take on some risk. But if we're doubting both their floor and their ceiling, then it gets a lot harder for me to justify taking them top ten.

00:07:00
Speaker 1: So your model right now has Kenny Pickett as the top quarterback in this class. Now I am a somewhat biased, you know, Pitt graduate. I love Kenny Pickett from that perspective, but I recognize that, you know, he doesn't have the best profile coming out of school. Of course, we keep hearing bad things about him, though, whether it's his age, whether it's his hand size, what have you. What are some of the good things that the model likes about him? Why is Kenny Pickett the number one guy in this model?

00:07:26
Speaker 2: Yeah, so from like a numbers perspective, there aren't a ton of like legit red flags on him outside of his age. His age is a big one. Like that is an actual legitimate red flag for me, because it says took him a long time to declare. He started, you know, pretty early obviously a pit as you know, so like it's not like he couldn't earn his way in the field, but like it took him a long time to be good enough to be able to declare for the draft, and that is kind of concerning. But there are some good things here for sure. He was efficient his last year obviously led Pitch to the a CS Championship game. That's pretty solid. His total QBR was eighty one point two. That is a high in this class, and he's one of just two guys in this class above eighty. In that number, the average successful quarterback in the first round is an eighty three point five, so Pickett's still below that, but he's the closest of that group getting to that total QBR threshold. He's also super experienced, which is good because if you're going to be old, you had better be experienced. And Pickett very much as that fifty one games with ten plus pass attempts, that is like a one hundred percentile basically number. So he is old, but at least he's experienced, and I think that that does at least partially leviate the concerns. It's not like again, it took him forever again in the field, he just didn't it's come wild to be efficient and declaire. So I have other concerns around him. The defenses he faced were really really bad this past year. His age is tough. It took him a while to be efficient, so there are concerns there. But there is a reason the model likes him to an extent, and it's because he was efficient. He's experienced, and those things do matter quite.

00:08:56
Speaker 1: A bit, all right, So talk to me about Malik Willis, you know, should he be the the consensus top quarterback, at least in fantasy football. It sounds like you like Picket a little bit more, at least your model does in real football. But from a fantasy perspective, do you think that Malik Willis should be the QB one or would you just follow the model and go with Kenny Pickett.

00:09:12
Speaker 2: Now, for fantasy, it's definitely lake Willis because it's a lot of things. It's because it sounds like he'll be the firstcout at the board. You look at the betting odds right now, he's the favorite to be the first quarterback taken. That matters a lot. Obviously he runs. Those two things matter so so much. So that's a good thing. But my model doesn't like him in terms of projecting him as like a real world quarterback because he's older and less experienced. Like we talk about age a lot with Picket and guys like that, but it's actually a concern with Milik Willis too. He's It's a really brutal combination for a quarterback to be older and less experienced. Of the eleven successful first round quarterbacks mentioned earlier, only one of them was older than twenty two point six years old when he was drafted. At the time of the draft. Only two guys are older than twenty two point one. Those guys Andrew Luck and Joe Burrow. So you've got accept options, but they're not the most common thing. Willis will be twenty two point nine when he's drafted, and that's with just twenty three games of ten plus pass attempts under his belt. Obviously he transferred, that's a factor in that. But and he had the COVID year too. But like it's a concern. The efficiency numbers for Willis were not great. They were especially bad against quality defense. You could pin that on being you know, on liberty and stuff like that, but like, you know, it's still a concern. And Willis also took an absurd number of sacks. His sack rate I think was like thirteen point three percent this past year. We talked a lot about justin fields last year in his sack rate that was eight point eight percent, and the highest number that I have of a first round quarterback from Laura Jackson that was under nine percent. So Willis at thirteen percent is going to break the record by a wide margin for a first round quarterback highest sack rate in their final year. So I would take him first of this group in dynasty, assuming that he is the first quarterback taken. But I think that typically I'm looking at a super flex dynasye draft. You're talking about, Okay, a first round quarterback who runs. They're probably gonna be the one oh one this year. I I'd have no trouble taking Breeze haul over him, assuming that, you know, things go to normal even in the super flex draft, because there are some really big red flags with Willison, Like his bus rate is very high. The ceiling is high, of course, but the bus rate is also very high.

00:11:23
Speaker 1: So Sam Howe, he's your number two in your model. Does he have the same type of ceiling in fantasy and in real football as the other guys we just talked about. You know, what are your biggest concerns with Hall in particular?

00:11:33
Speaker 2: Yeah, So with Howell, it's weird because the ceiling is actually the part I'm less concerned about. I think his floor is bad. I think his ceiling is actually pretty good. He has a strong arm that gives you good access to a ceiling. He's the only young, experienced quarterback in this group, and that matters a lot. You know, if I'm a list out the names of guys since twenty ten who were first round picks, who were decently efficient young in experience coming out. Those guys Patrick Mahomes, Justin Herbert, Lamar Jackson, Deshaun Watson, RG three, Jared Goff, Marcus Mariota, Teddy Bridgewater, Trevor Lawrence, Blake, Bortles, Packson Lynch, Josh Rosen. So like there's some busts there, there are some big whiss There is a lot of Paxson Lynch potential in Sam Howell, but you've also got two former MVPs. You got some future MVPs potentially in there. I'm not talking about Marcus Mariota, but like you know, he got some future MVPs in that group. And a lot of those guys, importantly to me, didn't go top five. So like evaluators in the NFL looked at these guys and said, Okay, Lamar Jackson thirty second overall, Patrick Mahomes tenth, Deshaun Watson twelfth, Justin Herbert six and the third quarterback taking that class. There was skepticism around these guys. So a lack of draft capital doesn't necessarily mean that he won't succeed. So I think that he does have a ceiling La Flora's bat I talked about Willison Zachary a lot. Powells was almost as high, around twelve percent this past year. It could have been because they lost like Jontay Williams, Michael Carter, you know, the all the receivers there as well, but his sacker is also pretty high as a sophomore and a freshman, so it wasn't just because of that. They were turned all five starters in the offensive line this past year. They weren't good, but they were returning starters. So I secretly do like Howell quite a bit. I'm really hoping goes high in the draft. If he does, I'll be very in But I think that like the potential for him to be like a Paston Lynch two point zero, it's a very real possibility. So for me, the concern is more about the floor for him than the ceiling.

00:13:31
Speaker 1: You know, people might be a little bit surprised, but next on your list you have Desmond Ridder over Matt Corral. You know, Ritter's been rising a bit, especially since the combine, it seems like, but what did the numbers say about the two of them and how might they pan out in fantasy football?

00:13:45
Speaker 2: Yeah, I think Ritter is really interesting because a lot of people I respect in terms of like quarterback evaluation, like Ritter from a film perspective, So like that's a positive for him. He is higher than Korral on this list because he's actually half a year younger than Kerral and like much more experienced. I think, like six teen are so more games of ten plus pass attempts, so a lot more experienced younger age as well. Corral did face a tougher schedule, so his total QBR is higher than Ritters. But you know, and that means that Korral could pan out. But Ritter to me checks a lot of key boxes and we saw him blaze at the combine. He didn't run a lot in college, but I think it'd be interesting to see him do that in the pros more. Kral to me is really weird, honestly, Like that's the that's the word. He's weird. I don't get him. He's older, he's less experienced. He really struggled in the situations where Ole Miss couldn't run the RPO type system his aya or justice yards per attempt on third and long. This year was three point one and fairness Ritter was three point six, So, like you know, Richard didn't tear it up there. But Howell was eleven point nine. Pick at nine point seven, Willis nine point five. Those are pure dropback situations and Corral and Ritter really struggled. Now, for Howell and Willis, a YA does not account for sacks, so keep that in mind when looking at that number. But it's really weird how bad Corral and Ridder were in that department. This is one spot where I vehemently agree with the model where I would rank Ridder above Corral personally. Until Corral goes higher on the draft, I'm going to like Ridder more by a decent margin because I think that the value of that that younger, more experienced prototype for a guy who does with a strong arm and can't run, I think that there's a lot of value in that.

00:15:23
Speaker 1: Yeah, and who knows, I mean, Ridder could still easily go ahead of Corral in the draft, just depending on how things go down. So the last guy that's kind of getting some I shouldn't say love, because no quarterbacks really getting love in this class. But the last guy who's kind of getting talked about is Carson Strong. Do you have any takes on him?

00:15:38
Speaker 2: Yeah, So he's interesting to watch because like he actually has a pretty good arm and likes it's not bad and like there are some things that are fun about him, but he runs like twenty twenty one Ben Roethlisberger, which is like harsh because like he's had a bunch of ee surgeries and like it's a bummer. It's like not his fault that like this happened, but that's still the case. It doesn't matter whether it's his fault or not. Like it's a legit con sirt. His mobility is awful, like legitimately awful. So maybe as he gets further moved from his most recent knee surgery, which was I think March or January of twenty twenty one, if he gets further removed from that, maybe the knee gets better. But it sounds like teams actually do view the knees as being like a long term concern. So unless the mobility picks up, I probably can't see it happening, but like I hope so, because like he's got kind of a cannon and he needs fun to watch, But I just it's hard to bank on that unless we know that his knees will magically get better.

00:16:32
Speaker 1: Yeah, it makes sense. So let's talk about some player comps. Let's let's look at each quarterback. I'm just gonna throw the name at you. You know, you can give me some description if you need to, because I'm sure some of them might need some description, But i'll throw the name at you. You give me their top comp. We'll start with Kenny Pickett.

00:16:48
Speaker 2: Andy Dalton, And I don't want that to be like a bad thing because Andy Dalton is actually a solid pro for a while. But like they're both older, they're experienced, decently efficient in college, and I'd assume pick it'll probably wind up most likely towards the back half of the first round. If he winds up going like six to Carolina, that'd be different. But if I assume that he's not like a top ten pick, Dalton, I think is both like a fair comp but also like not the worst comp in the world. Given the kind of flack this draft classes. Gods, I think that d Dalton's actually pretty solid comp for him.

00:17:19
Speaker 1: Yeah, he's the kind of comp that people sort of are upset about, even though it's actually not a bad comp because he had a really long career still in the NFL, He's had a really good career overall, made the playoffs a handful of times. So yeah, it's not a bad comp for PICKT. How about Malik Willis?

00:17:33
Speaker 2: Everyone else is Josh Allen. I think that's not where I'd go because Allen was younger, like a year younger than Willis coming out, So I go Carson Wentz. Carson Wentz, older guy coming out, less experienced, not crazy efficient, but has some of those key things you look for in terms of like upside, and also will probably have pretty good draft capital behind him. So I think that Carson Wentz is where I'd go there. The two guys who pop most in terms of like being similar to Willis are Carson Wentz and Ryan Tannehill. They both shown flashes, they have their massive flaws, but so does Willis. So I think that, more so than Josh Allen, the consort Willis would be Wentz or Tannehill, and I'd lean towards Wentz there.

00:18:10
Speaker 1: And understandable both guys coming in the league as raw or prospects you know, as is Willis. How about Sam Howe.

00:18:18
Speaker 2: Pax and Lynch as much as I like am intrigued by the upside. Like you think about the other guys who were like young and efficient, like Goff was there, Mariota, Mahomes, Watson. Even if they weren't like top five picks, most of them did go in the top fifteen. Howell's probably not going to Paxson Lynch on twenty sixth overall, So I think, like from a draft capital perspective, it's gonna say to us that, Okay, the NFL is more skeptical here, so we should probably be more skeptical too, because the NFL, for as much flak as they get, they're pretty good at quarterback evaluation, like as good as you can expect them to be. So I like how I would go Lynch. You know, there are some guys like Teddy and Lamar who've been good going back half of the first round, but like maybe we'll be surprised and how it will go high and if if if so, count me in. But I need to see that I need to get that sigle for the NFL first.

00:19:08
Speaker 1: He's like Packston Lynch with that like Baker edge like personality wise, I.

00:19:11
Speaker 2: Mean Baker Baker's like the the the vanilla comp Yeah, I think about this, Like what't we think of Sam how if Baker hadn't sucked this year? Like what if Baker had been good? Everyone's like, Oh, this guy aesthetically looks like Baker Mayfield. Maybe he'll be good too, Like is he a top ten pick? Then? Maybe not? But like I think Baker twenty twenty one killed Sam Howell twenty twenty two.

00:19:33
Speaker 1: Yeah, it makes sense. How about Desmond Ritter Jimmy Garoppolo.

00:19:37
Speaker 2: I think that that's probably a pretty fair comp for him, their super experience coming out, He's not super old, decent efficiency, but not against like outstanding competition because Garoppolo was at an FCS school, likely not a first rounder, though he could be, you know, kind of first second round type guy. I think it's a pretty good comp similar to the Dalton one, where like we laugh at Garoppolo, we laugh at Dalton a lot, but like they'd been starters in the NFL for a while. I think that's actually a pretty pretty decent one for Ridder personally.

00:20:06
Speaker 1: Yeah, I like that. How about Matt corral.

00:20:08
Speaker 2: Ej Manual older not super experienced, Okay, efficiency likely pushed up in the draft due to a bad class. I think that that one they check a lot of the same boxes, and maybe that's why I'm like wary of Corral going in, but like they have a lot of the same red flags. I think think that manual makes a lot of sense for Corral.

00:20:29
Speaker 1: And then the last one, the forgotten man, Carson Strong.

00:20:32
Speaker 2: Davis Webb is the guy most likely or most similar to him in terms of the stats profile like the day two pick. Not super old, but also not super experienced, unexciting total QBR. I mean, Davis Webb been a backup, He's been fine, you know, but not any not someone I'm like pounding the table for anything here.

00:20:53
Speaker 1: So if there is a quarterback outside the top six in this class that you would be pounding the table for. Maybe probably not, but maybe who would that quarterback be?

00:21:03
Speaker 2: I would say the guy that my model is highest on, or the guy my model is highest on is Bailey Zappi, And we were just talking about the top five guys before, you know, looking at them because draft capital does matter a lot. But Zati's actually eighty seven percent tilement model. He's the only guy of anybody in this class above the eightieth percent stile. He's very experienced bit younger than Pikett. That's a good thing. He had pretty similar efficiency numbers even when you account for his schedule. So I get why NFL evaluators are not high in Bailey Zappy because like there is a clear lack of arm strength does not do well. It'side of structure stuff like that, and those things do matter a lot, So I get why teams aren't super high in him, and the NFL is shown it doesn't have a lot of interest in this type of guy who's like kind of like in the Drew Brees to like everyone's like, oh yeah, he's Drew Brees, like the usually not Drew Brees. The NFL is shown they don't care too much about these guys. But if Zapi goes higher than expected, indicating the arm strength isn't as big of a concern as I think it will be, then it will get my attention. I've looked back at past non first rounders and seeing you know, NFL evaluations those guys, and a lot of them they get knocked for arm strength. So maybe Zappi winds up being a hit. I will have a close eye on him, and if he does go higher than expected, cool. I think that that could be interesting, but I also do get Wise being pushed down because his arm strength concerns do seem to be pretty legit.

00:22:21
Speaker 1: As always, Jim, I appreciate you stopping by and dropping some quarterback knowledge. If any of you aren't following Jim and his work, you can find him on Twitter at jim sonas and you can read his stuff over on number fire dot com. I'm also on Twitter at Late Round QB. Feel free to follow me on there. Head to Lateround dot com to see what I'm offering, and subscribe to the Late Round Fantasy Football podcast so you don't miss a show. Thanks for listening everyone, I've got a mailbag episode that drops on Friday. I'll talk to you then