330: Week 15 Matchups

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Speaker 1: This is the Labor Podcast with your host JJ zacher Retha j J. Zacher Reson.

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Speaker 2: What's up everyone.

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Speaker 1: It's JJ zach Reeson, the editor in chief at FanDuel and at Number five dot com. And this is episode three hundred and thirty of the Late Round Podcast, one of many shows that are part of the FanDuel podcast network.

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Speaker 2: Wait for it, Thanks for tuning in.

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Speaker 1: The quarterbacks I liked last week didn't do all that well, those being Baker Mayfield and Ryan Fitzpatrick. But the quarterbacks I didn't like, they didn't do that well either. That was Tom Brady and Josh Allen. I running back Jamal Williams didn't do as well as I expected. I got Devonte Freeman right and Tevin Coleman continued to not see the field, so that was a good call too. And then the big call of last week was Emmanuel Sanders, who ended up as the wide receiver one. I also liked Zach Pascal, so that was strong. Tight End was fine because of Tyler Higbee, but my main defensive pick, the Houston Texans, they sucked. So overall, I'd say it wasn't a terrible week, but I've had better off to Week fifteen. We go now before looking at players I'm higher and lower on this week versus the consensus. Though, I wanted to remind you to play Fandels Thursday Night Special this week. Just pick players from the Ravens and Jets, make a lineup, and submit that lineup for nine dollars. The prize pool is seven hundred thousand dollars, with first place getting one hundred grand. Just head to fandel dot com and check it out. I fielded a lot of questions about Dak Prescott this week, so I thought i'd kick off the quarterback talk today with him. I think he's being slightly undervalued by the consensus. Not by a ton, but at least a little bit. According to oddsfire dot com, the Rams Cowboys game total has gone up by two points at some sports books since it opened. That's the right kind of line movement that you want to see. It's now got a forty nine point over under on FANDUBL sportsbook, making it one of the higher scoring games of the week. So that's good for Dak, as is the fact that he's finished outside the top fifteen and weekly quarterback scoring only twice this year. He scored fewer than seventeen fantasy points only two times. You may look at the last couple of weeks and say that he produced in garbage time, which isn't wrong, But if Dallas is in this game, there isn't garbage time, Dak is likely going to have something to do with it. Dak has also scored four points seven more points per game than the points per game average that his opponents have allowed. He's been a great fantasy acid. He's been a top five quarterback, and as my colleague jim Son has pointed out on Twitter yesterday, at home this season, Prescott's yards per attempt rate is eight point eight on the road, that falls the seven point four and as we know, this game is being played in Dallas. So I'm in on Dak this week and I think he's a safe top ten option and potentially a top five to one.

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Speaker 2: Now.

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Speaker 1: I know Baker Mayfield failed me last week, but he's really hard to ignore this week. Arizona's allowed six point one points above expectation to oppose in quarterbacks this year, meaning quarterbacks have scored six more points than their season long points per game averages against the Arizona Cardinals. Cleveland's a road favorite, and that game also has a high is shover under. And I've said this a ton on the show, but for as bad as Mayfield's been for fantasy purposes, things haven't been as bad when you adjust for strength of schedule. Now, because of last week's performance, things do look a little bit worse than they did heading into last week, but he's only played a point or two below expectation from a production standpoint, and based on his yardist shoulder, he should have over four more touchdowns than he currently has. He's a positive regression candidate. Things can very easily come together for Mayfield this week against Arizona.

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Speaker 2: Now, if you're.

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Speaker 1: Super desperate at quarterback, I don't mind Eli Manning at all. Really, I think he's being overlooked. The Dolphins secondary is banged up and they've been bad all year. Only Arizona's been the better matchup when adjusted for strength of opponent. And you could also think of Manning from the perspective of his pass catchers. Over on Fantasy Pros this week, Sterling Shepherd, Goldent Tate, and Darius Slayton are all top thirty five wide receivers. Ranking players doesn't show variance, but It shows us that the expectation for this Giant's offense and passing attack, the expectations are pretty high. Eli's not a bad streaming option this week. I'd likely only be playing Ryan Fitzpatrick over him from a streaming perspective. Now, on the other side of things, I alluded to this on yesterday's ten Trends show, but Russell Wilson is ranked too high in my opinion, not that he shouldn't be played. I just think the QB five ranking is high. He should be closer to QB ten. As you guys heard yesterday, Wilson hasn't exactly been the best fantasy quarterback over the second half of the season. Since Week six, he's given fantasy managers just one top twelve QB one performance. He's averaging seventeen and a half points per game during that time, but he's actually hit seventeen points only once. He had a monster game against Tampa Bay. That's really skewing his averages, and he's faced plus matchups in there. Philly was sort of a borderline plus matchup at least in terms of adjusted Fantasy points allowed, and Atlanta was a good one, and honestly, Carolina when adjusted for strength of opponent, they've been pretty good against fantasy quarterbacks. They've allowed almost three points below expectation to opposing passers. So if we pretend that Wilson's expectation against a neutral team is like nineteen fantasy points right now, which is the honestly better than how he's been performing, then you're looking at about sixteen points this week. But the real fear I have with this game is that the Panthers can't stop the run to save their lives. They've got the worst rush defense in football. Seattle, meanwhile, has been one of the most run heavy teams in neutral game scripts this year. That tells us that they want to run the football, and they should be able to run the football, and that'll limit Russell Wilson's touchdown upside in this game. So I don't mind him, but I wouldn't be playing him over someone like Ryan Tannehill this week. And then there's Aaron Rodgers. I'm not sure what Aaron Rodgers has done to warrant a low end QB one ranking.

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Speaker 2: Against the Chicago Bears this week.

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Speaker 1: They've been one of the better defenses against fantasy quarterbacks this year, and Aaron Rodgers has been a pretty replaceable quarterback all year long. He's the QB nine in points per game among all passers with ten or more games played. The game this weekend has a pretty low over under as well. Rogers should be a mid range QB two this week in my opinion. Now, I thought that Kenyan Drake was a little bit undervalued this week. I know David Johnson scored a touchdown last week, but he still only had three carries and two targets. Drake continued to be used as the featured back. He had a seventy three percent running back rush share and a near eleven percent target share. That gives us two straight weeks now that he's seen at least those two numbers in those two categories, and now this week he gets Cleveland. It's a higher scoring game, it's projected to be close, and Cleveland's been below average against fantasy running backs this year. Drake's currently at RB twenty two, but I'd be a little more confident in using him than that. Patrick Laird is more undervalued than Kenyan Drake though he's at RB thirty, but I think he's a solid low end RB two this week. Look over the last two weeks, Laird's seen his snapshare increase and his workload has also increased as a result. In Week fourteen, Laird handled seventy nine percent of Miami's running back rushes and he had a target share north of fourteen percent. The Dolphins offense has been better over the second half of the season, which should give you a little bit more confidence in using one of their running backs, especially against the Giants. They haven't been anything special against the position this year, so I think that Laird is a really safe high floor option this week in PPR formats.

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Speaker 2: Now.

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Speaker 1: I know that I mentioned Ronald Jones as a cell candidate last week on the fifteen Transaction Show, and I think the point is still very valid. You've got to be willing to take a risk to play Ronald Jones. He's a risky play given he missed a block and Bruce Arians yanked him in week thirteen, but he did bounce back usage wise. In Week fourteen, he had half of Tampa Bay's running back rushes and he had a target share of eleven percent. The matchup against Detroit this week is awesome since they've been one of the top five friendliest matchups for opposing running backs this year.

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Speaker 2: But there's also a little bit.

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Speaker 1: Of intrigue in a boost in target share for Ronald Jones because Mike Evans is out now. I don't love Jones because he's not very predictable, but this is a good spot for him. Devonte Freeman came through last week, but you cannot love his matchup this week again San Francisco. The forty nine Ers have been the second best team against running backs this season when adjusted for strength of opponent, and they've really been in their own tier with the Buccaneers. Freeman should see some sort of floor given that he's a lock to handle over half the team's running back carries and see probably like a ten percent target share, but you have to be concerned about the matchup. He's an RB three this week despite that usage. You just have to hope that he can find the end zone or that there's a ton of dump offs in garbage time. And then there's Devin Singletary. I think if you've got Singletary, he's probably better than your alternatives, so you probably have to play him. And like I talked about on yesterday's ten Trend Show, things are moving in the right direction.

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Speaker 2: For him.

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Speaker 1: This past week, he had eighty one percent of Buffalo's running back rushes and a twenty two percent target share, So he's fine enough. But Pittsburgh's been really good against opposing running backs. In fact, no running back has finished in the weekly Top twelve or an RB one performance against the Steelers this year, so Singletary should be okay enough.

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Speaker 2: Just temper your expectations.

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Speaker 1: A common trend all season long has been the eagles inability to defend the perimeter. Even though they've allowed the third most fantasy points of opposing wide receivers, Quarterbacks against the Eagles are targeting the slot at the lowest rate in football, enter Terry McLaurin. Mclaurin's played just twenty four percent of his snaps from the slot this year, and he's averaged a twenty eight percent target share over his last three games. He's in a great spot to produce.

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Speaker 2: Zach Pascal is pretty interesting this week too.

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Speaker 1: The Colts have a matchup against the Saints secondary that was beat up last week against the forty nine Ers. They've actually given up the fifth most fantasy points to opposing wideouts this year. They've been especially bad against the slot which is why I liked Emmanuel Sanders last week. No team has allowed more receptions and targets to that area of the field than the Saints this year, and Pascal has played close to forty percent of his snaps from the slot over the last two weeks.

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Speaker 2: He'll be moved around.

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Speaker 1: But that's at least a little bit encouraging, as is the fact that his target chair is about twenty three percent without t Y Hilton in the lineup this year. Now, I honestly can't find many wide receivers this week that I disagree with. Rankings wise, I will say I think Alan Hearns is interesting if Devonte Parker can't go given his twenty three percent target chair this past week. And you can also look at Chris Conley or Keelan Cole if DJ Chark can't go. But most wide receiver sleepers this week are likely coming as a result of an injury and I just don't have all that information yet. But on the other side of things, Robbie Anderson and Jamison Crowder are really tough to be into this week against Baltimore. Over on Fantasy Pros, Robby's the wide receiver thirty six and Jamison Crowder is the wide receiver thirty seven, but I think both should be ranked outside the thirties. Baltimore has been awesome defensively, especially after they got Marcus Peters. They also haven't given up a top twelve wide receiver one performance since Week nine, and that's after facing the Texans, Rams, forty nine, Ers, and Bills. I'd honestly rather risk one of the players is gonna benefit from an injury than play one of.

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Speaker 2: The Jets pass catchers.

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Speaker 1: And then I saw that John Brown and Cole Beasley have drastically different rankings this week, with Brown at wide receiver twenty five and Beasley at wide receiver forty one, but Beasley's the one with the better matchup. I think Brown slightly overvalued because the Steelers can limit opposing wide receivers, but they've seen thirty seven percent of their passes against them this year go to the slot. That's the highest rate in the league. So teams are utilizing that area of the field against the Steelers, which is a common thing for Pittsburgh in recent history, and that favors slot receiver Cole Beasley. Matchup wise, I would be trying to avoid both players this week, though. If Greg Golsen is out again, Ian Thomas is a great play against the Seahawks. You guys already know this if you listened to yesterday's ten Trends show. Though the Seahawks are almost as bad at stopping tight ends as the Cardinals are, even though everyone always talks about the Cardinals. That's if you adjust for strength of opponent. And Thomas had a really strong twenty five percent target share last week without Greg Golsen, so he's in a great spot to produce. Mike Issicki didn't come through last week for fantasy managers, but I think that you can go back to him this week. He still saw fourteen percent of Miami's targets a week ago, and that was his lowest share since Week eight. So the volume has been pretty strong and there could be a natural uptick form from a volume perspective, if Devonte Parker can't go. The Kansas City defense is my top streaming defense this week. They really check all the boxes. They're at home, they're facing an inexperienced quarterback and their big favorites now. Drew lock hasn't faced a negative game script yet, but he likely will this week. So there's upside for that Kansas City defense as a result. But two deeper plays are actually from the same game, and that's Detroit and Tampa Bay. For Detroit, you've got no Mike Evans to deal with and Jamis Winston has a messed up thumb. Even with a healthy team, the Bucks have allowed opposing defenses to score two point six more points than their season long averages this year. They've been a plus matchup with Detroit playing at home. They're not a terrible terrible play, but Tampa Bay isn't either. They're facing a backup quarterback, Marvin Jones is now an ir and the Bucks are favorites in this game, So realistically, as two really deep plays, you could look at either defense in this matchup. That's gonna do it for today's show, though, Thanks to all of you for listening. If you've yet subscribe to the Round podcast, make sure you are by searching for it pretty much anywhere podcasts can be found, and don't forget to follow me on Twitter at late Round QB. Thanks everyone, Talk to you tomorrow with the Weekly Mailbag show.