Resetting the Luxury Tax, Nacho Alvarez, and Minor League Depth

00:00:21
Speaker 1: Welcome one and all to the latest edition of the Hammer Territory podcast. It is myself, Sean Colemanhan Steven Tolbert once again with you to talk all things Braves, baseball, and Steve and I have a bit of news for you. Nothing's happening for the exact same spot we were a few nights ago. But you know what, Hey, that's the point of being able to enjoy doing a podcast. We're always going to have content for you to discuss. Of course, you can find myself at Stat's sac on Twitter. Steven a Beandra Square Outliars Hammer Territory across all forms of social media, part of the Foul Territory family of podcasts at foul Territory across all forms of social media. So, Steven, we've been looking at all off season at you know, different things to discussions. We don't have a lot of transactions going on, obviously, hardly any at all of note. You know, we've discussed hypotheticals and we've discussed names to go after, We've discussed what other teams have done. You know, we've covered pretty much all of it that you can cover. We have covered this subject before and while that may not be the most exciting subject to cover. It is a very very important factor, it seems, not only into kind of how teams operate in the off season, but also off season chitter chatter when it comes to trying to understand what may exactly be there for teams to make moves or not make moves when it comes to money, and of course I'm talking about payroll, the tax, things such as that. And I'll be honest with you, Steven, it can get pretty confusing when you get into the weeds. Not necessarily do when you get lost. Some do, but the details get get a little get a little bit complicated at times. But recent talking Dave Obrian you know, tweeted out about it earlier today as well, just talking about you know, hey, the resetting the tax could be something that's playing into the lack of activity from the Braves so far this offseason. Steven Tobert, you have had plenty of things to say about this. What say you going on with the luxury tax and resetting the tax if you will?

00:02:21
Speaker 2: Yeah, what's up, Sean, Good to be with you, buddy. So, yeah, I've heard this all off season. I've heard this about resetting the tax. Dave O Brian of The Athletic covers the Bristlait. The Athletic tweeted about this earlier tonight, which kind of set another round of it off. People have been talking about it all year. As a explanation as to why the Braves have not done anything is because they are trying to reset the tax. And what I wanted to do tonight for the first part of the show was to explain what that means so people understand what it is, and to put some real numbers to it so that we have some actual context for what that's what that would mean for the team.

00:02:59
Speaker 3: So the luxury tax is more.

00:03:02
Speaker 2: Complicated than the cash payroll. We've talked about that before, and I try not to do too many shows on the luxury tax because it gets kind of heady and I can hear people rolling their eyes, you know, every time I start talking about it, because a lot of people don't care about the nuts and bolts of this stuff. But the luxury tax is essentially the collective and average annual values of all of your contracts, plus some other things salary benefits, your forty man roster, arbitration pool, money, stuff like that that all goes into one number, and that number has to be with under a certain threshold or you get taxed, and that threshold changes every year. It goes up every year. This is a collectively bargained number. For instance, this year is two forty one, last year was two thirty four. Next year is like two forty eight. So it goes up every year. It's part of the collective bargaining agreement. And essentially, every dollar that you spend over that tax over that threshold gets taxed. And that's important to remember that it's not that you get taxed on your entire payroll. It's that you get taxed on your overages only, and that's an important part of this. But there are two escalators in the luxury tax. It's how many consecutive years you have gone over the luxury tax, and it's how far over the luxury tax you go. For tonight's purposes, we're only gonna talk about one of those. We're gonna talk about how many consecutive years you've been in the tax because that is the only one that can be reset, and that's what people are talking about when they say reset the tax. How many how far you go over the tax is the same every time no matter what, that can't be reset. The only thing that can be reset is how many consecutive years you're in and the penalties that come with that.

00:04:39
Speaker 3: So I mean just gonna use an example.

00:04:42
Speaker 2: Let's say the tax threshold is two hundred and forty million, like it is this year, and let's say you go over two hundred and fifty million. Let's say you go over by ten million dollars. We're gonna use ten million because it's a very easy number to do. If it's the first time you've ever gone over the tax, right, If it's your first year going over the tax, then that ten million dollar over is taxed at twenty percent, so you would pay two million dollars in tax for a two hundred and fifty million dollar payroll. If it's your second consecutive year of going over, then that ten million dollars would be taxed at thirty percent, so you would pay three million dollars on a two hundred and fifty million dollar payroll. If it's your third consecutive.

00:05:19
Speaker 3: Year of going over the tax or more it.

00:05:22
Speaker 2: Stops at three, you get that ten million gets taxed at fifty percent, so you would pay five million dollars of the ten million dollar overage. So that is the number that everybody is talking about. That is the end and the beginning and the end of What has caused all of this conversation is that right now, the Braves have gone over the tax two consecutive years, So if they go over the tax again this off season, that'll be their third consecutive year, which means everything they go over, all of their overages would be taxed at fifty percent instead of thirty percent or twenty percent if they were to reset it. And I want to lay that out because I want to explain it people that it is.

00:06:01
Speaker 3: A relatively small amount of money.

00:06:03
Speaker 2: Like if the Braves go over, let's say the Brave's over twenty million dollars. If the Braves went over twenty million dollars, then if it was their first year, if they reset the tax, they would pay four million dollars because that's twenty percent. If it was their third consecutive year and they went over twenty million dollars, they would pay ten million dollars. So the difference is six million dollars between the bottom tier and the top tier. It's a very small amount of money for a two hundred and fifty two hundred and sixty million dollar payroll. And I want people to understand that because there's very little incentive to just fully resetting the tax in terms of the money you're saving, because it's not it's it's really not that much money. I think there are people that think the taxes for your entire payroll, it's only the money you spend over the threshold, and so we're talking about, you know, one two percent of the entire payroll. So that's my first point is that it's a relatively small amount of money. My second point is this Alex is given one number and everything has to fit in that number. We'll use last year as an example. Last year, the Braves had about a two hundred and thirty five million dollar cash payroll. Right, they had a two hundred thirty five million dollar cash payroll last year, but because of the way their contracts were spread out and the avs of their contracts, their luxury tax number was like in the two seventies, which was about forty million dollars over the tax. So they had about a fifteen million dollar tax bill last year. So they had a two hundred and thirty five million dollar cash payroll and a fifteen million dollars tax bill. So total, the Braves spent about two hundred and fifty million, And I bet you, I bet you a decent amount of money. That was Alex's all in number last year was two hundred and fifty million dollars because he had a two hundred and thirty five million dollar payroll and he had a fifteen million dollar tax bill.

00:07:50
Speaker 3: And that's how Alex does it.

00:07:51
Speaker 2: He just gets an all in number, and however it spread out is how it's spread out, like if it if it's paying if it's paying the players or paying the tax. It just has to fit within that budget. So those are the two points I want to make. There's no reason to duck the tax because all you have to do is just fit it in your budget.

00:08:12
Speaker 3: Like there's no it's not like.

00:08:13
Speaker 2: It's not like the ownership says you have two hundred and fifty million dollars to spend, but you can only spend that two hundred and fifty million dollars on players. You're not allowed to spend any of it on tax. That doesn't make any sense. He's just given an all in number and everything has to fit within that number, and it's not that much money that you're saving by resetting the tax. I really don't think Alex gives a shit about the tax, I don't. I think he just has to fit it within his budget. He's probably given a two hundred and fifty two hundred and sixty million dollar budget and he has to fit all the players salaries and any tax he has to pay in that number. And as long as he can do that, he doesn't care if they're the third consecutive year in the tax, the fourth consecutive year, the twelfth consecutive year.

00:08:50
Speaker 3: I don't think he cares.

00:08:52
Speaker 2: And so all off season I've seen this and it's just people talking about something that really does not matter that much. I really don't think this is an issue. There's just no reason for it to be an issue. Doesn't make any sense. It's, you know, your first year over the tax or fourth year of the tack. The difference is not that big, So it's a little rant. I'm not picking on dB. A lot of people have said this, A lot of people have mentioned this. People have tweated us. Are they resetting the tax and they're resetting the tax. The difference is just not that big and as long as Alice can fit the total number within his budget, he doesn't care whether you know, two hundred and thirty five million of his players and fifteen million of his tax or whatever. He's just got to fit in under his number. So I think it's something we can stop talking about because it's really not that big a deal.

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00:10:43
Speaker 1: And of course, you know, the lack of activity, the lack of movement, things like that, despite multiple needs of being out there for the Braze, money is going to be the first thing that that you know, people look at. And of course you know when it comes to baseball, it's the same, and you know NFL, it's the same in the NBA. That's why many franchises in the sports had they hire people exactly to manage the cap, not so much of baseball, basketball and football. My point that I'm getting at is, though, is that people want to talk about money, but for the Braves. That's the two things that kind of don't make sense to me is that you know, number one, why all of a sudden, when money could become an issue in the middle of their competitive window when it clearly has not been an issue in the past. And number two, the sources that help this team make money the battery, fans at the games, things such as that playoff games, even though we've not had many over the past couple of years. My point is, though all those things are in a good spot. So I'm not saying that money is not a factor in the lack of activity this winter. I just don't think it's as big of a factor as many a thing.

00:11:44
Speaker 3: And I'll point this out.

00:11:46
Speaker 2: A lot of people last offseason, DLB included, were saying all year they were not going to go over the tax, that that conversation was happening all last year too, and then they went like forty million dollars over the tax by the end. So, like I, Alex just has to fit it all within his number.

00:12:03
Speaker 3: That's it.

00:12:03
Speaker 2: He just has to fit it with all within his number. If that includes tax, then so big. It's just got to fit within the number. So I just don't I don't understand the fascination with it. I don't understand the obsession with He's He's He's given a number and everything has to fit under that number, the player salary, the tax, everything, you know, there's no there's no reason to just.

00:12:24
Speaker 3: Specifically duck the tax.

00:12:25
Speaker 2: So yeah, I think the reason the Braves haven't made it moves because they don't have they haven't found.

00:12:30
Speaker 3: A deal they liked.

00:12:32
Speaker 2: I do think they've had things that should have gotten done that they thought were gonna get done that didn't. I think they thought they had Jeff Hoffman. There's been enough reporting on that by multiple sources that are that I consider, you know, strong sources that the Braves had to deal with Hoffman for about fifty million dollars. You know, they didn't like his elbow or they didn't like his shoulder. I mean that happens, you know.

00:12:54
Speaker 3: Tanner Scott, there was real smoke around that.

00:12:56
Speaker 2: I think the Braves were in that, but they got outbid by the Dodgers or the guy just preferred to play with the Dodgers.

00:13:03
Speaker 3: You know.

00:13:04
Speaker 2: I think they have money. I've said all off season they have money to spend, and they don't care about I don't think they care about the tax.

00:13:12
Speaker 3: I really don't think.

00:13:13
Speaker 2: Alex just has a number. He has an all in number and he just has to be under that number. And if that includes tax, so be it. And they just haven't found deals they like. I do think they're gonna make moves. I've said that all off season. If they don't make any moves, then we will rip them up and down for it. If they just sit on this, if they cut payroll by thirty forty million dollars like it is right now, we're gonna rip them for it, because that's a that's that's horseshit. I mean, the way the battery is filled up every night, the fans have done their part. Cutting payroll by that much is in the middle of a contention. Window is not It is terrible optics, and we'll rip them for it. But until that point, until we get to the end of the offseason, and that's what's happened, I'm going to work under the assumption that Alex has money to spend, he doesn't care about the tax, he's trying to make the team better. It just we haven't gotten to the point where we have deals yet. And until I see otherwise, that's that's how I'm going to operate.

00:14:06
Speaker 1: And in fact, you know, you know, elaborating a bit on it, I think that there is one characteristic that I feel is again, you know, assuming you're a bit speculating a bit, but I do feel confident it's true. I feel like that one thing that Alex Enthopolis is is that he is someone who is firm insteadfast on the number that he will approach for a player, and if the number that he wants for that player, if it's not there, if it goes beyond that, he's not going to spend a lot of time trying to make it work. He's going to pivot elsewhere. We've seen that before with multiple former Braves that have gone on to other teams. We've seen it before where there's smoke around the Braves and a certain free agent and they wind up signing for at a mouth that is above what I think many who cover the Braves in baseball would be comfortable with. I think that plays a part in it. To your point is that we are just seen in a market where we know the he has been inflated. One thing is not changed is that Alex and Popless is going to stick with what he feels makes sense to spend on the player, and he's not going to deviate from that no matter how much it seems the player needs to be signed or moves need to be made, He's going to make sure that those move fall within the realm that he's comfortable with. Whether or not you feel that that's a good trade of Alex or not. It's simply something that's been consistent during his time with the Braves.

00:15:29
Speaker 2: Yeah, and you can make the argument that that's a positive trait or a negative. I mean, we're not going to tell you how to think. Like there are people that said, you know that he he made you know, he drew too strong of a line in the sand with Freddie Freeman, like he should have been more willing to go up. You know, everybody's got their own opinion on that. There's people that said he should have been more willing to go higher, on Max Freed or Danzy Sponson, like that is that's how Alex is. And on the whole, he's been right and he's been very good at his job. The Braves have made the playoffs seven consecutive years, they won a World Series. They want a pennant, Like on the whole, you have to say, he's been right more than he's been wrong, but you're.

00:16:10
Speaker 3: Right, Like that's just how he is.

00:16:12
Speaker 2: He They they set a number and they don't really come off that number for any reason, and if somebody else outbids them, they say goodbye to the player.

00:16:22
Speaker 3: And I listen, I've been frustrated.

00:16:24
Speaker 2: I thought they should have been more aggressive with Freddie Freeman, you know, but they weren't, and that's just how they operate. But I also thought it. I think it helps Hione in cases like Danzy Swanson. I did not want to pay Dancy Swanson one hundred and eighty million dollars. I did not want to pay Max Freed two hundred and twenty million dollars. Like on the whole, I think he's been right more than he's been wrong. But you're right, that's his that's his way, that's how he's been since day one, and you know it's probably not gonna change at this point. I mean, you know, that's just how he is. That's that's how they run their front office. And you know, I wouldn't expect it to be any.

00:16:57
Speaker 1: Different, absolutely, And the thing about it is is that you know, again, you know that in that sort of instance, the track record speaks for itself, and I feel like, you know, people's opinions of that track record, probably right now, are are a bit, how shall I say, a bit biased towards the negative because moves aren't being made at the moment. But I do think that overall, when it comes to the Braves being in the position that they want to be more often than not to start the season. They've been there every year. Now it's just the opportunity for them to close the deal a bit more often. But want to shift gears here a little bit because I want to, you know, elaborate a bit more on something that we talked about on the last podcast, Stephen, and you know, we went into depth. I had mentioned when it came to you know, looking at our bullpen, you'd made the comment that if we were to lose Rice Sellyglacias for a long stretch this year, or if we were to see Rice Selly Glacias regressive it when it comes to his production, our bullpen would be in a pretty bad spot as it is right now. And I made the comment that, you know, something that's a bit concerning is the fact that the Braves just have not had a track record of having you know, reliable bullpen depth that they have grown. They're in homegrown bullpen talents now, that trait, I think is the you know, true of most teams. But I bring this up because we got a question, you know, over the past few days since the last podcast, we got a question in regards to another prospect This question came from looking it up right now, forgive me. This question was in regards to Nacho Alvarez and it's from Bradley Cookes. His question is why has there been little to no mention of Nacho Alvarez potentially being a clear option at the shortstop position for the Braves. Yes, he had a cup of coffee last year and you know it didn't go as well, but he's been considered a top prospect in the Brave system for a couple of years. Obviously, it doesn't take much it seems, especially offensively, to be another option besides Orlando Arcia currently in the Braves mixture at shortstop. But Stephen would say you about that whole thought of why Nacho Alvarez may not necessarily be in the conversation right now when it comes to being an option for the Braves at shortstop.

00:19:20
Speaker 2: Well, I think the easiest answer is there's nobody in the organization. I don't think that believes that Nacho long term is a shortstop defensively, which is the first place you always have to start with this position. Defensively, you know, most people consider him more of a second base type. There's a lot of von Grissom and Nacho Alvarez quite honestly. You know, there's questions about the bat, there's questions about the defense.

00:19:47
Speaker 3: You know.

00:19:49
Speaker 2: I think he got hyped up more last year, A because he was having a really good year in Triple A, and B because Orlando Arcio was just in the dumpster for most of the year last year and people were desperate for anything, and so the hype train kind of got out of control. Objectively, Nacho Albarez is probably more of a second base, maybe even more of a utility bench piece on a on a championship caliber team. I don't, I don't, I don't know anybody, and I'm gonna get your opinion on this in a second. I haven't talked to anybody that believes that Nacho's a long term shortstop. Again, I think it's very similar to Von Grissom, and I think I said this on one of our last shows. I think it's gonna end up very similar to how Von Grissom ended up, with him being traded as a part of something to bring something more valuable back because the Braves just don't have a need for a second basement right now. So yeah, I don't think anybody used. Nacho's a shortstop long term, and that's the only place in the infield that the Braves have an opening anytime soon. So my guess is Nacho's gonna get moved.

00:20:52
Speaker 3: I thought he'd be moved.

00:20:53
Speaker 2: This offseason, quite honestly, tried to take advantage of the value he built up last year in TRIPAA. He still might I would not be surprised at all. I like he was a Dylan CS trade or something like that. But I just don't think anybody views him in the organization around the game prospect guys, I don't think anybody views him as a shortstop, and short stop is the only place the Braves can upgrade on the dirt right now.

00:21:14
Speaker 1: And the other thing about it is is that the skill set that Nacho Alvarez has as his profile as a prospect. And I'm looking at this more from a statistical lens. I by no means am a prospect has furg or anything like that. There are much more knowledgeable people in Braves country when it comes to prospects. But I will say, in looking at kind of how prospects who have profiled similar to Nacho Alvarez have matured, there is just such a narrow avenue, Stephen, for Nacho Alvarez to really have a successful long term career in the majors. He has good on base skills, which is a very good thing, and when you compare that being his strength to where Orlando Rci lax, that probably elevates the value of Nacho Alvarez in the mind of some Braves fans. But beyond that, there's such a narrow He does not hit for power. He is not a strong defender. He does not he can't play defense really at a premium position. And I think also even though it was a cup of coffee, you saw the flaws in his overall game. Translating to the major league level, it didn't take long to see that they would be clearly evident. I know that he has good on base skills, but the problem is is that he did very lift, had very little production against fastballs, which was the most frequent pitch he saw. And so while he has good on bass skills, pitchers are just going to throw heat at him over the plate with the confidence that he's not going to do much with it. So that type of profile just does not translate very well to the major league level. And that's why I think we got a bit of an indication that while many think highly of Nacho, however, is within the Braves, within Braves Country, that may not necessarily be the case overall. When it comes to baseball.

00:22:53
Speaker 2: Yeah, again, it's like von Grissom, and von Grissom probably had more power than the Nacho does. But you know, the glove's not good enough to play short, the bat's not good enough to play third. You're kind of pigeonholed as a second baseman. You know, there's there may be some there might be enough athleticism to play the left field, but again, you gotta have a pretty good bat to play left field.

00:23:14
Speaker 3: The arm's not good enough for right field.

00:23:16
Speaker 2: Like you just get you get pigeonholed because you can't do certain things. When that happens, kind of reminds me of Jose Perrazza. I don't know that it's a blast from the past. A long time ago. He was he was one of the bravest top prospects because the Bras farm system was was crap back then, and so he got a lot of hype. But when it came to his actual skill set, there wasn't a lot of substance there, he ended up being kind of a bench piece, utility piece for his career. I kind of see Nacho going the same way. I think he could be a decent utility guy, bench guy. You know, if he can get second base, if he can really get that position down and play it well defensively and run, you know, kind of an empty batting average or not a lot of power, you might be able to carve out a career as a second base spent somewhere. But yeah, I mean this is not like a premium you know, Baseball America just released our Top one hundred and Nacho wasn't on it, So like, this is not like some premium prospect that has to have a place to play. You know, he got hype last year because of how bad Orlando was and how good a year he was having in tripa A.

00:24:19
Speaker 3: But the skill set just doesn't match.

00:24:21
Speaker 2: And again, if your glove's not good enough for short your bat's not good enough for third seconds, the only place you could play the brace have assie for the next few years.

00:24:29
Speaker 3: I think he's gonna get traded.

00:24:31
Speaker 2: I if you'd asked me in November, where would Nacho Alvaros be in late January, I would have already said he'd been traded, but obviously the Brads haven't made any moves, so it still wouldn't surprised me if he was in another organization by the time we got to opening day.

00:24:45
Speaker 3: But yeah, he's not. He's just not a short stop.

00:24:50
Speaker 1: Well, and to me, this, you know, shines a spotlight on a couple of things. First off is this is that I know that for many the shortstop position was, you know, look like a major need this offseason. But at the very least we had an incumbent. We had Orlando Arcia, and I am the first to say, for sure, we'll discuss Orlando Arcia in the shortstop position.

00:25:11
Speaker 3: Yeah it's still imagined.

00:25:12
Speaker 1: Yeah, position capsule. We'll do that later on. But the point is is that they're not going to have anybody a year from now, and if Nacho Alvarez isn't muwed as a shortstop, there's nobody in the pipeline as well. The point that I'm getting at is is that the talk about the shortstop position is only going to continue to grow because I don't think the Braves view or Lando Arcia, even if he has a year like he did in twenty twenty three don't feel that they think he's the long term answer. So it's likely they're going to have to figure something out going outside the organization within the next year. That's on top of again what they're having to feel when it comes to their needs this season. So I think that that's something else we know. It's kind of like a year ago when we were talking about more than likely we were going to see Max Reed, you know, lead, We're going to have to figure out how to potentially find another a thankfully you know, Spencer Swellenbach or not a low piz Chris Sale. Those helped out on that in I don't see that type of success happening over the next year for the shortstop position. That's only going to become a bigger need as time goes on.

00:26:12
Speaker 2: Yeah, I mean, quite frankly, the Braves kind of have avoid in position player prospects overall. I mean, you know, we saw it last year when they needed outfielders. There was nobody to go get, like they had to go get Loreano, they had to they remember they tried Eddie Rozario, they brought him off the dumpster pile.

00:26:31
Speaker 3: I mean, they had no one and I'll.

00:26:35
Speaker 2: Make this point and I've thought about this before. So the Braves had a three or four year period where they were not allowed to sign international free agents, and that was from like twenty seventeen to like twenty twenty one. But you have to remember, because you're signing sixteen year olds, there's like a five year lag time between when you sign those guys and when they're actually prospects that can do something for you in your system. And so the penalties were from seven team to twenty one. But we're right now in that lag time where we're feeling the lack of international prospects in the system because they couldn't sign them five years ago. And if the Braves had a full international class in those years, then those guys would be at the point where their prospect level, you know, Triple A major league level players right now. And so while we got the penalties in seventeen, eighteen, nineteen, and twenty, right now is when you actually pay for those penalties because you don't you have that huge gap of disruption in your in your prospect pipeline because you don't have those players, and it's not going to be until like twenty twenty six twenty twenty seven, when the guys that they were able to sign in twenty twenty one come back or come up, that we're kind of going to be officially out of that, out of the woods of those penalties. So you know, when you look at the pipeline, the Braves have been winning a lot, so they don't draft very high, and they had that four year disruption where they couldn't sign international players.

00:28:03
Speaker 3: You're feeling the heat of that. Now.

00:28:05
Speaker 2: You're paying for that now because this is the point where all those guys would be up or in Triple A or on prospect list, and you know it's gonna be a couple of years more until we get past that. But yeah, the Braves don't have a ton of position. I mean, Drake Baldwin. It's like Drake Baldwin and that's it. Really, There's not a lot out there. So you know, that's why the depth on the roster is important. That's why I think the Braves need to add more outfielders. I think they need to add a shortstop because there's not a lot in Triple A or Double A in terms of position player prospects.

00:28:38
Speaker 1: Yeah, and now I also think that it spot slights. The fact, well, if right now we're feeling the effect of the lack of signings between seventeen and twenty one, that just shines the spotlight on the signings that we've had over the past few years. They're not going to start impacting us until the end of this decade, in the next decade. Jose Perdermo, Luis Guanipa. You know, a couple of the talents that we signed year, they're four to five years away, so they're not an answer right now. And you also look and go back, you know to where you know, you know post you know, seeing the Acunya and the Rileys and before them the Abby's and all that. You know, the end of last decade, those talents coming in, there's been three people Shay Long, the Leers, Lange Leers, yeah, whatever you wanted to say. His last name. Drafted ninth overall. Believe in either the twenty twenty or twenty one draft. Him and Braden shoe Make were drafted both in the first round that year. Shoemate didn't pan out. Jay got traded to the A's in the uh matt Olsen trade. He's worked out. I guess he had a pretty decent year last year. Of course, William Contreras has been great for Milwaukee, and at the time I think, you know, it was you know, at least sensible to trading b Shawn Murphy and then you've got Michael Harris. The point that I'm getting at is that when the Braves have, you know, they've hit on a few, but those depth pieces though, that that depth that you can rely on in the CA that may be a player that you bring in doesn't work out, or having multiple options that are at least notable where someone could work out better than you would expect it. It's just not been there. And it goes back to your point. I feel about the lack of depth that has been created from not being able to sign those international talents. And that brings another point and that that's kind of how we're going to well have a special guest on Hero the next week who I talked about this with, you know last year. The Braves focus right now when it comes to adding talent to the minor leagues, it's split in my opinion. They look to add top to your pitching talent for the act. They look to add positional talent through the international signing period, and because the international signing period those players are so young, you're just not going to get immediate impact when it comes to the position players. And that's what the Braves, that's what they need right now. The need for at least notable position player prospects is a glaring, glaring home in the organization right now.

00:30:59
Speaker 3: Yeah.

00:31:00
Speaker 2: Yeah, I mean Michael Harris and Langeliers were drafted. I think Quilliam Contreras was a international signing if correct. Yes, yeah, it was a while ago too. I mean he was like in the I think he was before Ntoppolis even so, so yeah, I mean you're right. And again, when you don't have international creator or you don't have international prospects for four years, this is the point where you pay for that, Like right now is where the Braves are paying the price for that. And you know, they have gone very heavy pitching in the domestic draft, and I understand why pitching is very expensive and so it's much better to have pitching in your organization than try to get it.

00:31:43
Speaker 3: But you know, I think they would have thought a J.

00:31:47
Speaker 2: Smith Schalver or Hurston Waldrop may have been a little farther along by now or at least they hoped they would. I still think the Braves are in the market for another starter, at least I hope they are. But but yeah, I mean it's a real problem. I mean right now is this lack of position players that the Braves have had. I mean, basically since Michael Harris came up, you know, Von Grissom, everybody thought he would be better than he was. He still has a chance to have a decent career. Not cho Alvarez, I think is a bit overrated. It's basically Drake Baldwin and you know Shae leg Leaders who they traded for Metolson. So they need position player prospects desperately. You know, I'm very curious to see this next draft that happens in July if maybe they they they focus a little more on that because it is a glaring hole in the organization. And listen, the Braves aren't gonna make any like selling moves anytime soon where they're gonna get prospects back in the trade. That's not what you do when you're trying to win a World Series. So the only way to get these players in your system is to draft them or to sign them as international free agents. And if you sign him as international free agents, they're seven, you know, six five, six years away.

00:32:55
Speaker 3: So I am.

00:32:56
Speaker 2: Curious to see if the Braves maybe shift that focus a little bit in the draft where they go a little bit more position players just to try to fill some of these gaps.

00:33:04
Speaker 3: But so far they have it. So if all, they've gone very pitching heavy.

00:33:07
Speaker 2: I think Alex is taking a pitcher in the first round the last three years or so.

00:33:12
Speaker 3: I'm not a big draft guy, but but.

00:33:14
Speaker 2: Yeah, it's a problem and there the Braves are paying for it right now with basically zero position players outside of Drake Baldwin in Triple A or Double A.

00:33:23
Speaker 1: And I know that it's rare, and I don't really you know, correct me if I'm wrong with Steve, and I don't really think that we've seen Alex and top let's do this. But if we we were getting some names back who you know, not not the wall drops or the A. J. Smith shovers, this could be if there's another thing to look forward to in twenty twenty five, there are probably a handful maybe five, seven eight prospects who are you know, Single A, Double A or higher that are pitching prospects in the Brave system that you could really see takeoff in terms of, you know, elevating their prospect status. If the Blade Braves get a plethora of arms, maybe they swap one of them for a sable position prospect. I know that that's a rare trade, but it's a creative move that in Alexandopolis I think is a pretty creative guy. That could be something that could be on the horizon. I think it's more unlikely than likely. But the whole point is is that we keep talking about there is a reason why it felt like Alexandopolis was moving heaven and Earth to go get Jared Kellning last year. It was because he was controlled for five years and they just didn't have any other option to feel a clear need. We're likely going to have to see something like that to fill the shortstop position over the next year.

00:34:29
Speaker 2: Yeah, and listen, Hasan Kim is still out there technically, you know, until he signs else.

00:34:34
Speaker 3: I mean I have I told Grant this.

00:34:37
Speaker 2: I've been waiting for him to sign anywhere else so I can just check Shortstop off the list. But until somebody signs him, I'm going to assume the Braves are at least somewhat interested because they need they need a shortstop, and you know, I don't he's not gonna be able to play opening day. I think he's not gonna be able to play for the first month or so. But Orlando could hold it down for a month and then you go to Kim.

00:34:59
Speaker 3: So until he signs elsewhere. That's technically still out there. And like you said, the.

00:35:03
Speaker 2: Braves don't have anybody behind Orlando. This is Orlando's last year of guaranteed money. They need a shortstop. They've needed a short stop since Dance be left. It wouldn't surprise me. But yeah, the lack of position player prospects. You know, na show when von Grissom both got tagged as big time prospects, but again that was because of the lack of prospects the Braves have in their system, quite honestly, and I think both guys have kind of shown that.

00:35:30
Speaker 3: So, yeah, they need something, and.

00:35:33
Speaker 2: You know, the Celtic move was almost certainly a desperation to try to get some outfield depths, some young outfield depth somewhere, because the Braves don't have any outfield depth either. They don't have any third base, shortstop, outfield, first base.

00:35:47
Speaker 3: I mean they don't.

00:35:48
Speaker 2: They just don't have position player depth in the mind. They don't have top prospects, and that is a big problem. And it also shows up on the trade market where you're trying to make deals and other teams have prospects they can give and the Braves don't.

00:35:59
Speaker 3: Really, that's why everybody who talks.

00:36:01
Speaker 2: To the praise has probably been asking for Drake Baldwin because they don't have anybody else to give. Really, that's at that level unless some team is just desperate for pitching and wants a bunch of young pitchings. So it's a problem. You're a hundred percent right, it's a great point. I mean, it's definitely a problem.

00:36:16
Speaker 1: So then the thing I'll in with is this, Stephen, is that I know that everybody is praying for moves, talking about moves, things such as that. My suggestion would be this, either in addition to that or in lieu of that, I want for us to look at something in a bit of a different light. I'm going to be wishing doing whatever you need to do to hope for the best. I'm going to be looking for ed that Jared Kelnick, Orlando Arcia and Sean Murphy that we saw for the first two months of the twenty and twenty three season. I implore you to go look at what Jared Kelnick did for the first two much of the twenty twenty three season. That is why the Braves moved havn nerd go get you. If we could get those three returning to those two to their forms for those two months of baseball, we'll be perfectly fine.

00:37:09
Speaker 2: And I'll say this about that, Sean Murphy has a track record of like five years of being a really good player. So Jared Kelnick and Orlando Sea don't like neither one of those guys has a significant track record of doing anything like I have way way more confidence and Sean Murphy bouncing back without a strained o bleak and missing two months of the season. I just think Orlando is See and Jered Kelnick are very good, quite honestly. So I would love, I would love the Braves to go add another outfielder and add a shortstop if they can, because you don't know what you're gonna get from Ronald. I don't think Jered Kelnick is very good, quite frankly, I don't think Orlando or c is very good. I would love that, But you know there are needs at the pitching side too, their needs and starter.

00:37:55
Speaker 3: Their need is a reliever.

00:37:56
Speaker 2: So at this point I'll take anything. But but yeah, I mean not having any sort of options in the minor leagues for left field, for shortstop, for third base. I mean, you saw it last year when guys got hurt. The Braves had nobody to call up, Like, the Braves had to go get Gio Orchella because they had nobody. They had to go get Ramon Loriano because they had nobody.

00:38:17
Speaker 3: It's a big deal. It really is a problem.

00:38:19
Speaker 2: And that's why I think the Braves need to go get another outfielder, because if it happens again, they're going to be in the same spot they were last year where they have to go get guys off the dumpster piles. So go get some outfielders, Go get a short stop. It would make our lives so much easier, not only on this podcast, but the team would be better.

00:38:39
Speaker 3: Go do it.

00:38:39
Speaker 2: I'm all in, Go do it.

00:38:42
Speaker 1: Just every podcast just takes that full vicious circle, Stephen, to come right back to the same point. Just do something, just something, yeah, anything else for you. As we wrap up, this edition in the Habit Territory podcast.

00:38:54
Speaker 2: I want to make the point one more time. The luxury tax is not as nearly as big a deal. Setting the luxury tax is not nearly as big a deal as people think it is. The amount of money you say by resetting is very small. There's almost no Alex just has one number and he has to fit everything in that number, like he doesn't care if fifteen million dollars of it is tax, it doesn't matter.

00:39:17
Speaker 3: It just has to fit in the number.

00:39:19
Speaker 2: Stop worrying about whether or not they're resetting the luxury tax. It's not that big a deal. It's a very small amount of money they're saving by doing it. It has very little impact. I just the amount of gets talked about and the amount it matters are not equal. So I just don't worry about it.

00:39:34
Speaker 3: It's not a big deal.

00:39:35
Speaker 2: That's I want that to be the final statement on this show, the luxury tax. Resetting the luxury tax is not that big a deal.

00:39:43
Speaker 1: But you know what is a big deal is that we're going to continue churning out content as this off season goes along. Moves or no moves, We're gonna make moves ourselves and it's gonna be to the next conversation. Of course, you can find at Steven Tolbert always good for a conversation on Twitter, slash x, at Vonder Square, Outliars. My name is Sean Coleman at Stats, sac foul Territory, at foul Territory, across all forms of social media, at Amatory, across all forms of social media. It is always a pleasure to be with you. Until next time moves or no moves, go braves, we will be here to cover it all for you here on the Hammor Territory Podcast