515: Mailbag 6/9/21

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Speaker 1: This is the lad Podcast with your host JJ zacher Retha j J zacher reson.

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Speaker 2: What's up everyone.

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Speaker 1: It's JJ Zacharyes and the editor in chief at FANDL and at number fire dot com in this episode five hundred and fifteen of the Late Round podcast and many shows that are part of the FanDuel podcast Network. Thanks for tuning in. I know it's earlier than usual in the week for a mailbag episode, but I'm moving. My family and I are staying generally in the same area that we've been in, but we're moving houses. So I'm off at the end of this week to get that move complete. So next week I'll have a new office, I'll have a new recording space. I'm very excited, but I wanted to get this mailbag episode done before that move takes place. The last episode in the house that I've lived in over the last six years. It's kind of bittersweet now before get into the questions. This week, Hey, baseball and Fantasy fans, FANDL has a special contest for you, running every single day. The Fandal Home Run Challenge is free to play. All you have to do is draft a team of three players and will receive points for each home run that they hit. You can then compete for a chance to win a part of the ten thousand dollars prize pool. For more details is at fandle dot com or download the Fando app today. Eligibility restrictions apply. Now let's get to these questions. I couldn't do the Mailbag episode this week without talking about the Julio Jones.

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Speaker 2: Trade that went down over the weekend.

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Speaker 1: I got a few questions about how things changed in fantasy, and instead of answering all of those questions individually, I figured I just walked through the whole thing, but shout out to at Dino Game Theory, at Andrea Amerral six y three to three, at Jamie h Fantasy, and at Chief and Jazz and a few others who ask questions surrounding the impact of this trade. Let's start with the Titans, who now have Julio Jones. I mentioned on last week's episode that aj Brown had a ceiling to be the best wide receiver in fantasy football this year. Adding Julio Jones to the mix hurts that because, like I said on the show, we typically see those crazy high target share seasons from players when the alternatives in the offenses weren't really there. Now there's an alternative. With that being said, my projections still really like aj Brown. He's still the wide receiver six of my projections with a little under one hundred and forty targets and ninety receptions. And keep in mind we have a seventeen game season now, but my projections still like Brown more than Justin Jefferson and DK Metcalf. Just to give you guys some context, and that's with Tennessee being a fairly run heavy team. I do have them projected with about thirty two pass attempts per game this year, which is a little bit higher than what we've seen in recent seasons. But the defense is average, and they added a weapon in Julio Jones that they haven't had before. So I don't think it's illogical to think that they're going to be a little bit more pass heavy, just a little bit now with Julio. I tweeted out immediately after the move that he was my wide receiver fifteen in my projections. That's dropped a little bit and he's now closer to wide receiver twenty. That's how much a single percentage in target share can change things, but I do expect him to see a target share in that twenty four to twenty five percent range, and he should be efficient on his targets in the Titans offense.

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Speaker 2: We'll just have to see where his adp.

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Speaker 1: Ends up settling at Nothing really changed drastically for Derrick Henry and a lot of secondary pass catchers like Anthony Ferkster and Josh Reynolds. They took a hit, but I wouldn't be overly concerned about AJ Brown. I do think he should drop in rankings just a tad.

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Speaker 2: But this shouldn't destroy him.

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Speaker 1: Meanwhile, Ryan Tannehill is a pretty big winner when you add Julio Jones to your offense. That tends to happen. My numbers have Tannehill at QB ten right now. His projection is point one points per game better than Tom Brady's. So Tannehill is firmly in the late round quarterback discussion with Atlanta. I've talked through some of this on the podcast over the last couple of weeks. Last season, Calvin Ridley's PPR points per game average rose by three points when Julio Jones was out. He went from about a twenty one percent target chair per game with Jones active to about thirty percent per game without him. That's why you've seen analysts this week going nuts about Calvin Ridley's upside, because his upside is there, and multiple people hit my mentions this week saying that this is like Juju Smith Schuster all over again. When Juju lost Antonio Brown, his fantasy value ended up dropping, not rising, but he got plenty of hype after Antonio Brown left Pittsburgh. I don't see that as the case at all. Calvin Ridley has been a perimeter receiver in the NFL. He's had a larger sample size without his alpha teammate too, and in that sample size he's dominated. Juju Smith Schuster didn't have the same evidence that we have with Calvin Ridley. So I feel pretty confident that this is not another Juju situation. The two wide receivers are totally different players. My projections currently have Ridley at wide receiver five, and like I said, the ceiling is definitely there for him. He has wide receiver one overall in his range of outcomes. Kyle Pitts gets a bump from this move as well. The Falcons are likely going to implement a lot of two tight end sets with Arthur Smith there now as head coach, which will also help Hayden Hurst to be more relevant. The Titans have lined up in twelve personnel at one of the highest rates in the league over the last couple of seasons, and I'm referencing the Titans because of Arthur Smith, and according to sharp football stats dot com, they tied the Eagles last season with the highest twelve personnel frequency across the league. Cap issues aside, Kyle Pitts's versatility is probably a reason the Falcons felt that they could make this move with Julio. So as a result of the move, Pitts went to tight end five. In my projections, I have the big three tight ends and Mark Andrews ahead of him in my projections, but I'm likely going to have Kyle Pitts as my tight end four in my rankings because there's a lot of interesting upside that exists with his insane profile. And then, lastly, I want to talk about Russell Gage. I mentioned on last week's show how Gage was really good in games where he played seventy percent or more of Atlanta snaps. Last year, he averaged a twenty two and a half percent target share per game in those contests and almost fifteen PPR points per game. Outside of those games, the target share dropped by nine percentage points and the PPR points per game were almost cut in half. One issue that we could run into with Gage is that thus far throughout his career he's been more of a slot guy. He played sixty seven and a half percent of his snaps from the slot last year, according to Pro Football Focus, and that number was sixty seven percent twenty nineteen as well. Those are his only two relevant seasons in the league. This could be troubling if the Falcons do end up deploying a lot of twelve personnel, which I think they will, because in that scenario, Gage would be forced.

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Speaker 2: To the outside.

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Speaker 1: The thing that's keeping me high enough on Gage, though, is that Atlanta doesn't seem to have many alternatives who would be able to replace him. That's why I think that he's still easy to project with a decent target chair. But do keep in mind that if his ADP rises enough to where it gets uncomfortable or moderately uncomfortable, it's easy to fade him. Because of how he's been used thus far in his career. I'm not sure he's a special enough talent to assume that he could be a powerhouse on the outside opposite of Calvin Ridley. So Gage is more in that wide receiver four range. He's in the forties in my wide receiver projections. Matt Ryan also so dropped in my projections to a mid range QB two. For the record, the lack of rushing upside hurts players like Matt Ryan.

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Speaker 2: So that's my take on the trade. It's one that.

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Speaker 1: Really elevated a lot of pieces in fantasy football. This says question is an email. It says, hey, JJ, I am struggling to assess cam Maker's potential to be a bellcow in twenty twenty one.

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Speaker 2: What do you think? Thanks? Mike.

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Speaker 1: So, camp Makers missed time at the beginning of the twenty twenty season his rookie campaign. He was then sort of eased back into an annoying degree, and then things really shifted for the Rams backfield in Week thirteen last year. That's when cam Akers started seeing a bigger workload after having a big game against the forty nine ers unlimited touches the week prior. From that point on through the playoffs, Akers handled about eighty seven percent of the rams running back rushes, and he averaged about an eight percent target share per game. Now, Darryl Henderson was banged up and out in the final three games of that sample size, so.

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Speaker 2: That probably skews things at least a little bit.

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Speaker 1: I don't think we should assume Henderson just disappears in twenty twenty one, especially with Malcolm Brown gone. But if we're looking at the potential that Acres is a bell cow in twenty twenty one, I think that potential is decently high. The Rams used him down the stretch even when Henderson was active, and we can't lose sight of the Rams actually drafting Acres in the first place. They had spent a Day two pick on Darryl Henderson the year before, and they did that just to spend an even higher pick on Acres the following year. That alone tells you they weren't sold on Henderson being a bell cow back for them. A lot of things point to Acres being that capable player. If you look at last season, two of Henderson's biggest three running back rush air games, they came when cam Akers was out. When cam Akers was in Henderson wasn't getting the rock nearly as much. Logically, this is telling us that Acres is at the very least the one a in that offense, and considering what they spent to get him, how good of a prospect he was, and what he did down the stretch last year, it's easy to see him being there bell cow with Henderson being a change of pace player for them. But let's not get it twisted. You have to do some per for cam Akers this season. He's very good, and I think the average draft position for cam Akers is right, but he's one of those early round players with a very wide range of outcomes. There's a scenario where he jumps into the elite tier this season, given the offense he's in and the workload that he could see and the talent. Cam Akers is really good, and he scored really well in my model. But be open minded because this could go south too, or at least this could be more of a committee than some expect. That's also in his range of outcomes. I think the opposite is more probable. But let's not pretend that we have this massive sample size of cam Makers being the team's bell cow with a healthy Darryl Henderson, We don't you drafting or fading acres will come down to risk Colerance. I think he's a good bet, and I'm intrigued by his upside, but I can understand if you'd rather play it safe and get an Eckler or a Joe Mixon type instead, because those guys are definitely safer bets. This last question is from Twitter, says am I crazy to think that Taysom Hill is this year's best bet as late round quarterback. If he is the starter, he should get plenty of rushing yards, a floor of passing yards, and will likely also catch a few passes. Yet I've heard zero fanfare from analysts. You're not crazy at all to think this, but you're also making the assumption that he is the starter. If he were confirmed the starter, you'd hear far more about Taysom Hill and fantasy circles. Quarterback is not like running back or wide receiver. At running back and wide receiver, there aren't really any obvious late round alternatives that you can go for if you don't get one of your favorite late round dart throws. At quarterback, there are. That's part of the reason the late round quarterback strategy can be effective.

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Speaker 2: It's because there's an.

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Speaker 1: Excess supply of quarterbacks and single quarterback leagues. So because there are alternatives who are locked in as their team starter, people are naturally going to be less into a player like Taysom Hill. But if he's a confirmed starter, his ADP is going to rise. It's just that the equity that you would gain by going all in right now on Taysom Hill is not the same as it would be at running back or wide receiver.

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Speaker 2: Like think of it this way.

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Speaker 1: Let's say that you've got a late round running back that you've been targeting over and over and over again, he goes in the same round that Taysom Hill goes in. Now, let's say in July he gets named the starter, that running back is now the starter for his team, and there are reports saying that he's going to see a lot of work, and you feel very confident, and everyone feels very confident that he's going to be close to a bellcow. And let's assume that Taysom Hill is named starter at the exact same time that running back's ADP is going to rise more dramatically than Taysom Hill's will because running back matters more in fantasy football, so the ROI that you're getting is more substantial with that running back than it is for Taysom Hill, because even if Hill is named starter, he's still going to be a low end QB one or a high end QB two, and those players are still being drafted in the middle to late rounds of drafts, whereas that running back would rise to at least the middle rounds. So hopefully that all makes sense. I agree that Hill is a great late round quarterback if he's named starter, but there's no reason to next necessarily totally bank on that right now in June, when there are plenty of alternatives at quarterback and when we know the ADP rise may not be that substantial, at least compared to other positions. This as question is from at LP underscore Porto. What is your view on Lynn's comment as Jamal Williams as RB one A and how does that impact SWIFT on your model? Okay, so, I think the comment by Anthony Lynn has been blown a.

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Speaker 2: Little bit out of proportion.

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Speaker 1: I don't think he was saying that Williams would be the one A in his offense, just that he's that kind of running back. This was the quote from a few weeks ago. Lynn said, quote, Jamal is what I'd call a classic A back. I like to break the backs down into A and B. My A backs are normally my bigger backs that can run between the tackles block, probably a little better than a B back. They can also run the perimeter. I can leave those guys in there for all three downs. So I don't think Lynn is necessarily saying this within the context of the Lions offense. He's saying this within the context of Jamal William's skill set, which is a completely different thing, because hypothetically he could have multiple A backs on his team that would leave some of the A backs without a three down workload. Now, with that being said, and I tweeted about this when the quote was originally said, but I had Jamal Williams projected for a decent sized workload in that Lion's backfield to begin with. Nothing really changed for me based on that quote, because it seemed reasonable to think that Swift wouldn't carry the ball two hundred and fifty plus times. That's not necessarily his game now as it relates to my projections, Swift is my RB fourteen. My view on Swift is pretty straightforward. He should have a good floor for PPR formats given his potential target share, and I'd expect him to catch a lot of passes. But on multiple levels, I worry about the ceiling. I worry about him not seeing all the goal line work, and that's within an offense that's not going to be very good. That combination means I'm probably only going to aggressively go after him and redraft when his ADP falls.

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Speaker 2: I think he's a safe bet to give you some.

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Speaker 1: Production this year, but with my early round picks, I want them to have that true RB one ceiling. That's tougher for DeAndre Swift this year given the situation that he's in, But the RB fourteen to seventeen range that seems about right for DeAndre Swift. So the last question this week sort of answers two questions. It's from at Dynasty Bennett. Why are so many people down on JK.

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Speaker 2: Dobbins.

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Speaker 1: Thirty year old mark Ingram finishes an RB one in the same offense, and Dobbins is far more explosive. So first off, I would give episode five hundred and ten to listen that goes over the impact that mobile quarterbacks have on their teammates and fantasy football, and historically, teams that have rushing quarterbacks, those rushing quarterbacks impact their running back teammates negatively. Now clearly that wasn't the case for mark Ingram two years ago when he finishes in RB one, But there are a lot of reasons to why we shouldn't approach fantasy football in that way. I'm going to combine this question, like I said top, with another one that I got this week from at J five zero eight six seven seven two eight. Jay tweeted and said, I feel that quote he's the RB five is misleading and kind of useless. If RB five is seventy points behind RB four or two points ahead of RB ten.

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Speaker 2: Who cares?

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Speaker 1: Why can't points score be the norm? David Montgomery was RB four and twenty twenty and scored two hundred and thirty seven points. RBS five to six scored two hundred and thirty five and two hundred and thirty four. Dalvin Cook the RB three scored three hundred and fifteen thoughts. Another reason I want to combine the two questions is because I think this plays into what you're saying in this question about JK. Dobbins, mark Ingram finishes the RB ten in points per game in twenty nineteen. Yes, but what does that actually mean? To Jay's point, why aren't we just saying that Ingram scored sixteen point two PPR points per game? Because when you give it that context, it doesn't look as good. One RB one is not the same as another R, and one RB one from one season isn't the same as an RB one the next season. Just as a quick example, mark Ingram would have been a high end RB two last year in points per game had he continued scoring sixteen point two points per game. I made a Twitter thread about this topic last week. Actually, one of the things that irritates me most with fantasy analysts is when people say things like David Montgomery was the RB four last year and now he's being drafted as the RB twenty.

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Speaker 2: He's a steal.

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Speaker 1: But really, there are far better metrics and things to look at than previous season finishes. We know David Montgomery had the backfield to himself that Tarik Cohen was injured, and we also know that a running back's overall finish can often tell us just as much about his health as his actual performance. Running Backs who see big workloads and don't get hurt, they're generally going to score a decent amount of Fantasy points. Now this isn't to say that Montgomery is bad or anything. It's just to say that if you're gonna forecast, you should try your best to look at things that really matter. Like, yeah, there's some correlation between a player's finish one season and has finished the next season, but there are still better ways to go about looking at that. Projections themselves are going to be more accurate than a previous season finish. So the fact that mark Ingram finishes the RB one and twenty nineteen doesn't really do anything for me.

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Speaker 2: With JK.

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Speaker 1: Dobbins, we need more than that to work off of. Not only that, but Ingram did what he did in twenty nineteen in a super, super unsustainable way. This is another thing that often goes unnoticed when we look at finishes and don't give them any context. We're not actually analyzing for things like regression. That season was Lamar Jackson's MVP season. Baltimore was insanely efficient offensively, and they were really good at scoring touchdowns. They scored fifty eight times on offense. Only eight teams since twenty eleven have scored that many touchdowns. That has a trickle down effect on the rest of the team in fantasy football, and it did for mark Ingram. That season, mark Ingram scored fifteen touchdowns. According to my method of looking at rushing touchdown regression, he should have scored eight to nine touchdowns on the ground when he had ten. So it wasn't a huge deal there from a regression standpoint. But Ingram saw thirty targets that season, and he scored five touchdowns through the air.

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Speaker 2: That season.

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Speaker 1: He became the first running back in NFL history to have thirty targets or less while scoring five or more touchdowns.

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Speaker 2: So not only was.

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Speaker 1: Ingram's RB one finish a low end RB one finish, and not only would it have been a worse finish just a year later, but he did it during an outlier offensive season for Baltimore while having an outlier season as a receiver. And then the other point to make about historical finishes and attributing them to the current year. In the current year, we're working with perfect information. Running Back injuries happen all the time. In June, everyone's healthy. So from a rankings and projection front, there's more competition across the league at the position than there might be at the end of the season or at the end of the previous season. Like Saquon Barkley was hurt last year, he's not hurt this year. That's more in added competition. And then the running back position also has a lot of young players with potential from that twenty twenty class that includes JK. Dobbins, but Cam Akers, Antonio Gibson, Jonathan Taylor, Clyde Edwards Laire. There's a lot of competition right now at the running back position. That competition at the end of the year may not exist in the same way because injuries are going to occur. So when we look at a previous season finish, we're looking at players who are competing against this sort of weaker competition than they're competing with in June or July, because in the summer everyone's healthy and they're projected to be healthy. So there are a lot of reasons to be down on JK. Dobbins and to not just assume that he can be in RB one because Ingram was an RB one two years ago. We can't lock in the Ravens to have one of the best offensive seasons in NFL history. We can't assume JK. Dobbins is an outlier season catching touchdown passes. Competition at running back across the league is better right now than it was in twenty nineteen, and that makes it tougher than to be in RB one.

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Speaker 2: Mobile quarterbacks generally don't help their teammate.

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Speaker 1: It's in fantasy too, and Dobbins himself in the Ravens running back since Lamar Jackson took over to that point, they've had really bad receiving volume and target shaars. Now, I don't necessarily mind JK.

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Speaker 2: Dobbins.

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Speaker 1: I'm more so poking holes in the logic that was used here because I think it's really really important Ingram being a thirty year old RB one in that Raven's offense. That has nothing to do with how good of a fantasy asset JK. Dobbins is going to be this year. My projections right now have JK. Dobbins at RB nineteen, and I think that makes a lot of sense, and I think it's where he should be drafted this season. That's gonna do it for today's show though, thanks to all of you for listening. If you've got subscribed to the Late Round podcast, make sure you are by searching for it pretty much anywhere podcasts can be found and over forgets. Follow me on Twitter at Late Round QB. Thanks for listening this week everyone, I'll talk to you next week