980: The Truth About Day 3 NFL Draft Selections

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Speaker 1: This is the Late with your host JJ zacherth JJ Zacher reef. What's up everyone. It's JJ zacharyesin in this episode nine and eighty of the Late Round Fantasy Football Podcast. Thanks for tuning in. We're in the middle of NFL draft season. You're reading prospect profiles, you're listening to me talk about my model. For some of you, it might be a little overwhelming. There are a lot of things to remember. Well, we're going to talk about a brand new topic today, just to fill your brain up with more information, but hopefully it'll actually alleviate some of the cramming that you're doing pre draft. Now. You often hear myself and others talk about Day one, Day two, and Day three picks in the draft. Day one being the first round or night one of the draft. Day two is round two and three, and then Day three is the remaining part of the draft. Every pick is unique and it holds its own individual value. Let's first get that out of the way. When I'm generalizing and I'm saying this guy's going to be a Day two pick, I don't mean that a player getting drafted thirty fifth overall is the same as a player getting drafted eightieth overall. Both of those guys are Day two selections, but the thirty fifth overall player has much better draft capital. When we get to day three, though, things generally do shift. The picks that we're talking about hold less value. Teams are going to be more willing to swing for the fences or do things that they otherwise wouldn't do. They're not as afraid of missing on those picks because the value of those picks aren't as high. It's no different than how you feel at the end of your fantasy drafts. You have a sure why not kind of attitude. Now, an NFL team obviously wants to hit on every pick they make, don't get me wrong, but the quality of player drafted on Day three is clearly gonna be worse, and there's not as much anxiety for a front office to get those picks totally right. For all those reasons, those picks perform a lot worse in fantasy football. I'm just not sure people realize how much worse. Like, what's the actual probability of finding a gem in fantasy football who was drafted Day three? How should that change your approach in rookie drafts? I'm going to talk about that today. I'm going to give you guys the truth about Day three NFL Draft selections. Now, before digging in, I just want to send another reminder about the Late Round Prospect Guide. The guide includes one hundred and sixty pages of information on my prospect and Year two models. There's eighty prospect profiles, there's about forty Year two profile write ups, there's rankings and more. And if you purchase the pre draft version, you get the post draft version as well. That post draft version will have updated writeups and it'll be sent to you the final night of the NFL Draft. That way you're ready for your rookie drafts. Immediately. Learn more about it and get yourself a copy by heading the Late Round dot com. And if you're on the site, subscribe to the free newsletter too. You can get content straight to your inbox from yours truly, and like I've been saying, it's an easy way to support late round fantasy football. But that's all on lateround dot Com. So the focus today is only gonna be on running macks and wide receivers because those are the positions that were focused on most in fantasy football. And we'll kick things off at running back. Now, my prospect model only looks at overall draft pick, not specific day that the player was drafted. So on today's episode, I'm gonna refer to Day three as any player who was selected after pick one hundred. There's technically gonna be some Day two players that I talk about here, but I'll specifically call them out if need be. Now, the ZAT model dates back to twenty eleven, so I have every running back and wide receiver in the model since twenty eleven who either went to the NFL Combine or who was drafted. Usually there's a massive amount of overlap here. We don't typically get a ton of draft selections from players who weren't at the NFL Combine. Now, we don't have a massive sample of first round running backs in a database because teams just don't spend up at the position in the NFL draft, not like they do at wide receiver. We've had eighteen first round running backs since twenty eleven. Then with Day two selections or players drafted from pick thirty three through pick one hundred, we have seventy five, and then there are one hundred and ninety of them when looking at pick one hundred through the end of the draft. Now, when I do my prospect analysis, I'm often looking at how players performed across the first three years of their career. We can't really just look at rookie season numbers and draw conclusions. We don't know everything about a player after one year, even though we do learn a lot. So I'm going to do that again here Today we'll shrink our sample down from every player since twenty eleven to all players drafted through twenty twenty two. That's going to allow every player to be eligible to play three or more years in the league. Again, the whole goal of today shows just lay out some facts and some stats about Day three players. To get that analysis, we need to see how these players performed across some timeframe. But also the only way that we can have context for all of this is by looking at Day one and Day two players as well. So how about this. Among the running backs drafted after pick one hundred from twenty eleven through twenty twenty two, twenty of them were able to score twelve or more PPR points per game, and either year one, year two, or year three minimum eight games played for that season to count. Fifteen of those Day three picks hit fourteen or more PPR points per game, that's usually around an RB two season, and then five of them scored sixteen or more PPR points per game, that's essentially an RB one season. That means that we're roughly going to get one one and a half running backs on Day three every year who end up giving us an RB two season and either year one, year two, or year three. But what does that really mean when compared to other running backs who are drafted earlier. Well, Day one running backs have had fewer players get to twelve or fourteen p puerre points per game than Day three ones during our timeframe, but that's obviously because the denominator is greater for Day three running backs. More players are drafted late, there's a higher chance for some hits. When you look at the rate in which these players are hitting different points per game thresholds, it becomes clear that getting something of substance from a Day three running back is pretty rare. Round one running backs across their first three years, they'll get to fourteen or more PPER points per game at a sixty nine percent rate for Day two guys. It's a thirty five percent rate for Day three running backs, it's just nine point two percent. If you're looking for an even higher ceiling sixteen p puer points per game, which is like an RB one season, the rates are as follows, sixty two and a half percent for Day one running backs, twenty four point two percent for Day two, and just three point one percent for Day three. Now, when we're talking out Day three picks, we're talking about a lot of running backs and a lot of bad running backs. Surely we could pinpoint the better ones on Day three to increase that three percent number, increase the rate of one of those Day three running backs becoming an RB two from like nine percent to maybe like fifteen or twenty percent. Maybe we wouldn't reach the levels of a Day two running back hit rate, but we'd at least get closer. Well, historical data doesn't exactly back that up. I went and looked at single quarterback rookie draft ADP from Dynasty League Football dot Com, which looks at twenty seventeen onward. So I analyze rookie drafts from twenty seventeen through twenty twenty two, which again gives players the ability to have played three or more seasons in the league. Throughout this timeframe, we've had one first round running back in rookie drafts who was a Day three NFL draft selection. That was samaj p Ryan, who had an overall ADP of ten point five. And for the record, i'm calling first round as any player drafted in the first twelve picks of a rookie draft, since we're usually working in twelve team leagues. Michael Carter was close, but he had an ADP just past the first round. In our sample, there were just nine running backs drafted in round two of rookie drafts who had Day three draft capital. There were nineteen who were taken in round three, and there were thirty nine in round four of rookie drafts, which isn't that surprising because the later you are in a rookie draft, the more likely you are to take a Day three player. Here's the thing. Across this entire sample of Day three running backs who were taken in rookie drafts from twenty seventeen to twenty twenty two, there's almost zero correlation between where the running back was taken in rookie drafts versus how many points that player scored in his best season from year one to year three. That's been looking at the first four rounds of rookie drafts. So if you look at all Day three running backs during this timeframe, your hit rate wasn't any better if he was a second round rookie draft pick or a fourth round one one. You could take a Day three running back forty fifth overall in your rookie draft versus one at thirtieth overall, and it wouldn't make that much of a difference, or it hasn't within the sample that I'm looking at. And when you look at the individual results of all these running backs, this makes a lot of sense. Here are the top ten Day three running backs by rookie draft ADP from twenty seventeen to twenty twenty two. Samaj p Ryin, Michael Carter, Damian Pierce Okay, he was kind of a hit. He scored about thirteen p PERO points per game his rookie season. Isaiah Spiller, Justice Hill, Zamir White, Jamal Williams, Kaylin Bilage, Tyler al Jeer, and Naihim Hines. Each of those players were drafted in either round one or round two of rookie drafts during the time period that we're looking at now. Obviously we're not going to get big hits in general from Day three backs, but the biggest hits of the position aren't leaving draft boards early. You have James Connor, who is a round three pick in rookie drafts, which also James Connor was a day two pick technically, but he went after pick one hundred, Ramandre Stevenson middle of round three, Elijah Mitchell late round three, Isaiah Pacheco, Miles Gaskin, Kyen Williams round four. What this data is saying is that Day three running back hits they're not happening super frequently. Well compared it to wide receiver in just a second, but generally speaking, we don't get many hits from a back drafted after pick one hundred in the NFL draft. But also even when we feel confident in some of these Day three running backs, we're not usually correct as a consensus. Now, obviously, with rookie draft data and individual rookie class can impact where players land in ADP, like if it's a loaded class that could push ADPs down and vice versa. I get that this is not perfect, but there's also zero correlation, Like there's none, there's no correlation between where a Day three back has been drafted in rookie drafts, at least the first four round rookie drafts, versus how that player ends up performing in his best season. To me, that's telling us that's sure we can throw a dart at a Day three running back. It's not like your alternatives in dart throwing territory are fantastic anyway. Just don't reach, because not only does that opportunity cost increase when you reach, but assuming you know who the Day three running back is that year is pretty arrogant. We can increase our odds better than the market by doing research and using things like the Zap model, but we're not gonna be great at spotting who the Day three running back is every season. But let's look at wide receivers now, same exact exercise, different position. If you thought Day three running backs were bad, get ready for these wide receiver numbers now. Obviously, more wide receivers are drafted early in the NFL draft than running backs. From twenty eleven through twenty twenty two, we had forty nine Day one wide receivers, well over one hundred Day two wide receivers, and then over two hundred of them on Day three, and again I'm using after pick one hundred for Day three. Here, I'll once again look at the rates of hitting twelve, fourteen, or sixteen PPR points per game and year one, year two, or year three for all these wide receivers. For Round one, Day one wide outs, they've gotten a twelve or more PPR points per game at a fifty five percent rate. That's about thirty percent. For Day two wide outs, it's just four point two percent for Day three. Just four point two percent of wide receivers drafted after pick one hundred from twenty eleven to twenty twenty two scored twelve or more PPR points per game in one of their first three seasons. For fourteen or more PPR points per game, Day one was at forty five percent, Day two twenty two percent, Day three two point three percent, and then for sixteen PPR points per game, it's twenty two point five percent. For Day one, it's about thirteen percent for Day two, and then less than one percent for Day three. I don't think of people realize just how hard it is for wide receivers to work out in fantasy football after being drafted after pick one hundred. Granted I'm not looking at undrafted players here, but still it's absolutely wild. Puka Nakua is a legitimate unicorn. Now you may be wondering how that translates to rookie drafts, and I was curious too, so I looked it up. Similar to running back, we're not great at pinpointing which Day three wide receiver is gonna do well in fantasy football. When looking at all Day three wide receivers taken in rookie drafts from twenty seventeen through twenty twenty two and then seeing what the correlation between ADP and best season points per game was, there was once again zero correlation. And for the record, that's not the case with Day one and Day two players at both running back and wide receiver, but with Day three players, there's no correlation. Now, I will say fantasy managers did do one thing, really, really correctly with one specific Day three wide receiver during this time, and that's aman Ross Saint Brown. He's got the second best rookie draft average draft position among these Day three wide receivers, and obviously he's been one of the biggest Day three successes in recent NFL history at the position. But Hunter Renfro who gave us a wide receiver two season, he was a late fourth rounder. Khalil Shakir was a mid third round pick, and we've now had Pookin Nakua join the list even if he's not part of this sample. But Nakua was also a late fourth round pick. There are definitely some ways to spot the right wide receiver, don't get me wrong. For instance, in the current iteration of the ZAP model, Khalil Shakir, Aman Ross Saint Brown, and Pukin Nakua are listed as low risk picks by Draft Capital Delta, meaning the model viewed those players as being undervalued. But roughly twenty percent of Day three picks are going to be labeled that way. It wouldn't be right for me to sit on this podcast and say that we can definitely pinpoint a Day three wide receiver who's gonna hit in a big way. It's a lot harder to do that at wide receiver than it is at running back, just based on what we've seen. So let's wrap this all up nicely. Since I know I just threw a bunch of things your way, Let's look at some takeaways. Number one running backs and wide receivers. They don't emerge from Day three of the draft very often at all in fantasy football, and actually it's probably less often than you initially thought, especially a wide receiver. Number two, it's still okay to draft these Day three players in your rookie drafts, because typically your alternative is another Day three pick. There's only a problem when you're reaching. I wouldn't lean into the reach unless the alternatives are just really objectively bad. Historically, when we've boosted Day three running backs and wide receivers and rookie drafts, when we've pushed up a Day three players ADP, those players haven't panned out at a better rate than other Day three players generally speaking. And then number three, I do think leaning more running back than wide receiver you're in the late rounds of your rookie draft makes more sense unless you get a wide receiver with good draft capital late. That happens sometimes, But if you're in like round four of your rookie drafts, sure you can take a chance on a wide receiver. Just know that running backs have historically given you a little bit more juice. Now, maybe none of this is new to you, Maybe all of it is new. I just thought it couldn't hurt to gain a little perspective. And that perspective is that Day one and Day two of the NFL Draft. That's what's really really important for fantasy football. It's almost everything that's important. That's it for today's show, though, thanks to all of you for listening. If you get subscribe to the Late Round Fantasy Football podcast, make sure you are by swartching for it pretty much anywhere podcasts can be found. You know, to follow me on Twitter and on Blue Sky at Late Round QB. It's a mail bag week, so make sure you get your questions in. That'll be dropping on Friday. I'll talk to you then