Evolving Money: Diversifying with Digital Assets (Sponsored Content)

Since you're a subscriber to this Bloomberg podcast, we thought
you'd be interested in a sponsored podcast called Evolving Money,
produced by Coinbase and Bloomberg Media Studios. It explains how
institutional investors are adopting the world's newest asset class crypto.
Here's a recent episode.
I think of Bigcoin almost as like a child growing up.
And you know how kids go through different phases of life.
They are the phases where they're good students. Then maybe
they've become teenagers and they need to rebel. Maybe they
have a punk phase or a goth phase, and we're
definitely in one of those transitional phases. Now.
That's oh Meed Malliken, a Wall Street veteran and an academic,
trying to answer the simple question what is bitcoin? And
by that I mean is it a currency? Is it
a commodity? Is a digital gold?
Or is it a.
Teen with a questionable haircut? All right, maybe more important
than asking what it is actually interested in its behavior.
What is bitcoin's behavioral profile, because that is what will
inform how it fits into a diversified portfolio. After we
hear more from Omete, I'm going to bring in Cosmo
Xiang for you, general partner and portfolio manager with Pana Capital,
one of the earliest and most established investment firms focused
exclusively on blockchain and digital assets. I want to talk
with him about other ways institutional investors can get exposure
to crypto beyond purchasing bitcoin. This is Evolving Money and
I'm your host, Angie Lao. This show is co produced
by Coinbase, one of the largest cryptocurrency platforms in the world,
in Bloomberg Media Studios. In this series, we are exploring
how crypto is being adopted by traditional financial institutions as
the next logical evolution of the monetary system. Let's return
to Omeid mallikin a little bit more about him. He
worked on Wall Street for City Venture as their crypto expert,
and he's been an adjunct assistant professor at Columbia Business
School for the past seven years, teaching college students about
crypto and blockchain. He's the best combination of practical experience
and an academic perspective available. So my first question for
him is actually two questions. What is bitcoin and for
an institutional investor, what role does it play in a portfolio?
So let's start by trying to define what it is,
and then we can talk about where it might fit in.
To me, bitcoin is a hard currency that comes with
its own universal payment system or method of transaction, if
you will, And that's a very special thing because we've
always had hard currencies, like gold is a hard currency,
so gold is notoriously difficult to store and even harder
to transact. So when you have something that is as
scarce as bitcoin is, but then you can zap it
around the world within minutes to anybody that has access
to the internet, that is a very unique kind of asset.
Which is why I actually never liked the digital gold
narrative that some people ascribe to bitcoin.
So I want to talk to you about that digital
gold narrative. How did that actually come about, and why
is it being questioned now.
To think about bitcoin as digital gold is to double
click on the scarcity feature. It's a hard currency or
hard asset. Nobody can print a lot of it. And
for the same reason that societies throughout history have wanted
to have some amount of gold, people would then want
some amount of bitcoin. More recently, a lot of people
have really questioned the narrative because going back now to
the last time we made the all time high, which
might have been last fall. I think the price of
gold has really surged and the price of bitcoin has
gone down. So that's where we are now. But like
I said earlier, I never loved the digital gold analogy
because the plumbing aspects of bitcoin to me have always
been just as important as the just it's an asset
that has a finite supply argument. And just to put
this in stark terms, let's go back to when Russia
invaded Ukraine and a lot of people quickly rallied to
donate a lot of money to the Ukrainian government to
help with defense, right, and a lot of people actually
donate a lot of crypto. And let's say that Ukrainian
government also had a lot of gold, you a warehouse
somewhere outside of Kiev. But let's say the war had
gone really badly and Russia had succeeded in toppling the government,
and the government would have had to flee and go
rule in exile. How would they have taken their gold
with them? No, they probably wouldn't have. But with the
bigcoin and other crypto assets, all the people in charge
at the time when people donated crypto to them would
have to do is take a private key. They could
have even memorized the private key that would now give
them billions of dollars in purchasing power, or millions or
however much they had. This is why I think the
plumbing argument is in many ways far more interesting when
it comes to monetary insurance than the hard asset argument
that gold represents.
It sounds like one of the big differences between gold
and bitcoin is that while both are scarce resources, it's
actually much easier to or in transact with bitcoin. So
you stated that nation states are increasingly interested in expanding
their assets in bitcoin and cryptocurrency. Why do you think
that is?
When we talk about foreign exchange reserves, we talk about
literally how countries save money for rainy days, and they
don't need to save really in their own currency because
they can print their own currency whenever they want. And
for many decades now, the US dollar has been the
reserve currency of the world. Something at its peak, like
I believe well over sixty percent of all foreign exchange
reserves were dollars. Having to do with the fact that
every country does a lot of business with America, having
to do with the fact that people generally trust in
America's political and legal system, all of these trends are
now going in the opposite direction. Even in government macro circles.
It's recognized that we are in a period of de dollarization,
where for various reasons, tries want to diversify away from
the dollar, and while many central banks are buying gold
heart to store, heart to verify, hard to transact. So
this is where I think almost by the fault. Once
enough time has passed, more and more countries will say,
you know, this bitcoin thing is very easy to acquire,
very easy to transact, and we no longer have to
take the risk of some other countries' politicians liking us
doing the right thing, or some other countries central bank
not printing too much money, So you're.
No longer tied essentially to somebody else's monetary policy. Indeed,
that's freedom in and of itself, Yes, it is. The
academic discussion of what is bitcoin is a fascinating one,
and the value it has for governments that hold it
is important. But for institutional investors, the more important questions
are what does it behave like and what factors drive
chain and its value.
The question of how does the asset perform. This is
actually a homework assignment that I give to my students
every semester to go download the data and crunch the numbers.
And it's very interesting because bitcoin has gone through multiple
phases over the years where it behaves very differently in
relation to other assets. There was a period early on
where bitcoin was very much a flight to quality asset,
where in the event of a macro event or a
banking crisis like the one in Cyprus, the price of
bitcoin appreciated materially. Then many people will remember what happened
during COVID, which is that the price of bitcoin crashed
along with everything else. And then in the years after COVID,
the price of bitcoin sword along with everything else. So
I wouldn't read too much into any one of these cycles,
and for me personally, this is where I fall back
on my mental model of this idea of monetary insurance,
and the correlations have completely broken down now, so bitcoin
is not correlated with stocks right now, it's not correlated
with gold, which is unfortunate for the people who really
brought into the digital gold narrative. But I think this
is the beginning stages of it. This is purely speculative
of course, but I think it starting to behave more
like an asset that people want to own when they
are problems with more traditional assets.
That would mean that if everything feels a little crazy,
you actually do want to kind of have that insurance,
if you will.
But over intermedia to longer time horizons, markets can be
very noisy in the short term, but I do believe
that years into the future, when people look back on
the current period that we're living in now, the numbers
will actually start to show that if you move past
the most short term time horizons, bigcoin did start to
act more like an insurance asset. If you think there's
something to what I said about this idea of a
it's not digital goal, but it's new financial infrastructure, then now,
when it's fifty percent cheaper than it was not that
long ago, that's the time to start accumulating it. As
to how much one should accumulate, boring academic answer depends
on your risk profile and what else you hold in
your portfolio.
This is a great time to bring in my next guest,
Cosmo Jing. Cosmo is a general partner and portfolio manager
at Penta Capital, one of the oldest and largest institutional
investment firms focused on blockchain and digital assets. I've asked
them to come on the show because I want to
explore the impact of digital assets beyond Bitcoin in an
investor's portfolio and talk about Omed's last words, depends on
what else you hold in your portfolio, he said, So
how about it, Cosmo. What else can an institutional investor
hold other than bitcoin that gives them access to this
asset class.
When I think about diversification, I think about it as
not just about owning more things. It's about owning different
drivers of return. So you have different things contributing to
your portfolio.
You know.
From that perspective, it's like, why would I want to
own different drivers of return? Well, either because a they're
uncorrelated or be they offer something really compelling from a
growth perspective, And I think cryptoize elements of both. When
I do think of digital assets, I think about it
in two large buckets. There's there's bitcoin, and then there's
everything else, which is blocking the technology that's Ethereum, Salona,
all these other tokens, and the reality is they both
have pretty different drivers. Now there's cryptocurrencies and then there's
protocols that represent unit of value, and so cryptocurrencies are
kind of different. You need to put on your macro hat,
and there's not really any fundamentals to talk about fare it,
just like there aren't fundamentals for goal other than technical flows.
So what about the adjacent opportunities then, the businesses that
aren't crypto protocols or tokens but are actually connected to
the ecosystem. What do you think about those satellite or
adjacent investments? What do they look like then?
So, some of the things that we're most excited about,
and as we get beyond as you say, you know,
layer one protocols like Bitcoin, Salona, ethereum, are really a
lot of the applications that are now being built on
top of these base layers. So things like decentralized finance,
which is effectively recreating our financial rails except on blockchain rails,
we find that extremely exciting. As we move beyond DeFi,
there's a lot of other surface areas that we think
are really interesting. Explore one area in particular that I'm
spending a lot of time in that pintera spending a
lot of time made is all the way that block
really uniquely enables AI adoption. There are so many interesting
entrepreneurs that actually sit at that intersection of blockchain and AI,
because you know, blockchain ani are booth just branches of math.
I studied math in college. Plenty of my smarter colleagues
went on to study math and PhD. They all have
both cryptography experience or blockchain experience and statistic experience or
AI experience, and so there's already this huge supply of
entrepreneurs that sit at that intersection and really interesting explore that.
So my background is also as a long short equity
investor for most of my career, and so I come
from a world where I care deeply about fundamental value,
about revenue, about evadah, about cash flows, and my whole
raison detro for entering the digital asset space. I started
to see that more and more protocols actually had those
characteristics and were able to be underwritten in the same
exact way that I underwrote equities, and my goal was
to bring that fundamental financial analysis rigger into the block
chain space. When you look at blockchain protocols, these can
be analyzed and should be analyzed in the same exact
way that you might analyze inequity with any any equity company,
you might think about, you know, what if they're total
addressable market, what are the users? How will they monetize
their users? And then what's the expense structure to get
to your your earning's power. Similarly, with a blockchain protocol,
you know you have this, you have this incredible ability
to use on chain a data to measure a lot
of those same things. You can see how many users
any given protocol has. You can see on the blockchain
it's revenue getting printed second by second, and so you
can track that revenue and then you can, you know,
you get a sense of what the operating expense structure
might be and then how much cash lovelight get produced
or return to token holders. It happens that most protocols,
because they are new businesses and new startups, have less
of a track, ord less history, less data to use.
But you can dream the dream and if there's that
same you know, and so there's a wider range of outcomes,
but you can still do that same sort of analysis.
So this surprises many our perspective investors when we talk
to them. But for all of our positions, we have
three statement models. Right, we build out income statements, We
build cash flow statements, we bail out balance sheets to
understand the fundamental growth of this business.
Cosmo, is there a point we're not having any digital
asset exposure actually becomes a risk for institutional portfolios.
I think the answer is very much yes, and that is,
you know, a driver of some of the interests that
we're seeing from clients, because if you think about what
happened last year, not only did it became clear that
thereas regulatory clarity, that the governments are supportive, that access
was improving, but also that you know, quietly Coinbase was
added to the S and P five hundred in the
second quarter of last year. And what that does is,
all of a sudden, every single every single professional investor
now has Blockshain exposure in their benchmark. Right nearly everyone
in the world uses some version of the SMP five
hundred or maybe it's MSCI to benchmark their returns. And truly,
prior to prior to Coinbase being added to the S
and P five hundred, you had zero blockchain in your index.
And so if you were, if you're a manager of
thinking about where you want to be overweight or underway,
it was never a consideration for you, but all of
a sudden, starting last year, you are now required to
think about whether you are overweight, underweight, or equoi to
asset class. And so that is a major shift and
a major change. So it does become risky to not
have access to this assat class now that is actually
in your benchmark and how you're judged against. And because
that happens to be outperforming everything else.
Okay, then is there a point where it's going to
be too expensive to get into this asset class?
We get that question a lot, and I think it's
really important here to have a long term time prize.
And if you're an investor, the most important thing that
every marketing department cares about if you run a consumer
brand is what are the twenty to thirty year olds doing?
Because you know inevitably that they will get jobs get
more wealthy over time, and so their portfolio allocation or
what they spend on what they believe in that will
those brands will have more value over time because those
consumers will have more money over time, and they'll replace
the older coalhorts that age out over time. And you
know today a lot of fifty to sixty year olds,
the people with all the wealth have a lot of gold,
but if you only have the twenty three year olds,
they all own bitcoin, they don't own gold, And so
very clear to me over a multi decade time period
that brand bitcoin is going to win out. And bitcoin
today is a two trillion dollar market, cab gold is
something like thirty five trillion, So this for real, you know,
ten to twenty x opportunity and that is tremendous upside.
And then from the blockchain technology, I mean I feel
even more optimistic. It's more excited about the about the
return potential.
For institutional investors. Building diversity in a portfolio is all
about collecting assets that respond to different drivers. Oh Mead
Malla can seize bitcoin as both a payment system and
a hard currency. He says its role in a portfolio
is to serve as insurance against investments that have different
behavior patterns and protection from monetary debasement. Cosmo Jiang, meanwhile,
is attracted to the growth potential of digital assets and
protocols that push investors beyond Bitcoin. What I found interesting
was the way he explained his approach to evaluating those
assets and how it mirrors the approach commonly used to
put a price on traditional equity opportunities. So I'm going
to give the last word to Cosmo because I want
him to weigh in on the hottest topic in investing
right now, artificial intelligence. Are institutional investors over investing in
AI tech and AI focused companies and what does that
mean for crypto related investments.
Your goal as an investor should be trying to capture
the total universe of potential growth opportunities. And it's pretty
clear that today a lot of the equity indices over
index to AI, and you know, that could be for
a good reason and not. I certainly think AI is
going to grow tremendously over time, but they probably under
inext to the next most disruptive technology today, which is blockchain.
You know, everyone is making this big deal about whether
I should be able to send in blockchain assets or not.
You know, blockchain. In the future, all of finance will
be digital finance, All of finance will include crop blockchain assets.
Many other businesses, including large AI companies, will be using blockchain,
and so it'll just become part of our everyday allocation,
whether that's through investing in blockchain focused companies or other
companies that happen to use blockchain, across equities, across tokens
or cross currencies.
I m amede LAO and This is Evolving Money, a
co production between Coinbase and Bloomberg Media Studios. Thanks for listening.
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