Election Two Weeks Away; Bonds Sell-Off as Traders Rethink Cuts

Bloomberg Audio Studios, Podcasts, radio News. Good morning, I'm Nathan 0:00:10.880 --> 0:00:13.840 Hager and I'm Karen Moscow. Here are the stories we're 0:00:13.880 --> 0:00:14.640 following today. 0:00:14.840 --> 0:00:18.160 Karen, let's begin with the latest from the presidential campaign trail. 0:00:18.239 --> 0:00:21.319 There are just two weeks left until the election, and 0:00:21.400 --> 0:00:24.279 both Donald Trump and Kamala Harris are fanning out across 0:00:24.320 --> 0:00:28.639 the battleground states. Former President Trump visited Asheville, North Carolina, 0:00:28.680 --> 0:00:32.320 and continued to make unsubstantiated claims about the federal response 0:00:32.360 --> 0:00:33.479 to Hurricane Helene. 0:00:33.560 --> 0:00:35.720 They don't have any money for the people that live here. 0:00:35.760 --> 0:00:38.839 They got hit by one of the worst storms, possibly 0:00:38.880 --> 0:00:41.080 the worst storm ever, but one of the worst storms 0:00:41.120 --> 0:00:42.519 in the history of our country. 0:00:43.120 --> 0:00:44.000 And it's a shame. 0:00:44.200 --> 0:00:47.120 Donald Trump's claims run countered word from North Carolina Governor 0:00:47.200 --> 0:00:49.440 Roy Cooper that FEMA has given one hundred and twenty 0:00:49.520 --> 0:00:52.400 nine million dollars to Helene victims and placed more than 0:00:52.440 --> 0:00:54.880 sixty two hundred people in temporary housing. 0:00:55.760 --> 0:00:59.720 Meanwhile, Nathan Vice President Harris visited the Midwestern blue wall 0:00:59.720 --> 0:01:03.960 state of Pennsylvania, Michigan, and Wisconsin. She criticized the former 0:01:04.040 --> 0:01:07.240 president over a new report on his economic proposals from 0:01:07.280 --> 0:01:10.600 the nonpartisan Committee for a Responsible Federal Budget. 0:01:10.920 --> 0:01:14.160 There are many seniors in our country that social security 0:01:14.200 --> 0:01:18.679 is their only form of income, and now an independent 0:01:18.760 --> 0:01:22.399 agency has reviewed Donald Trump's theory about social security and 0:01:22.440 --> 0:01:25.720 his policies and has indicated that his policy would actually 0:01:25.800 --> 0:01:31.600 render the Social Security Fund empty essentially in six years. 0:01:31.959 --> 0:01:34.640 Kamala Harris also took Trump to task for a side 0:01:34.640 --> 0:01:37.720 stepping a question about raising the minimum wage during his 0:01:37.800 --> 0:01:41.639 weekend campaign stop at a McDonald's. Today, early voting begins 0:01:41.640 --> 0:01:45.200 in Wisconsin. Former President Barack Obama will join a Democratic 0:01:45.280 --> 0:01:48.080 running mate, Tim Waltz at a rally in Madison, while 0:01:48.080 --> 0:01:51.200 Republicans will hold their own events, encouraging voters to cast 0:01:51.200 --> 0:01:53.000 an early ballot for Donald Trump. 0:01:53.240 --> 0:01:55.280 Now, Karen, let's turn to the latest from the Middle East. 0:01:55.360 --> 0:01:58.600 Secretary of State Anthony Blincoln has arrived in Israel. He 0:01:58.640 --> 0:02:01.120 is scheduled to meet later today with Prime Minister Benjamin 0:02:01.160 --> 0:02:04.800 Netanyahu in Jerusalem and Defense Minister Joev Galant in Tel Aviv. 0:02:05.040 --> 0:02:07.520 It's Blncoln's eleventh trip to the Middle East since the 0:02:07.560 --> 0:02:11.480 October seventh attack. America's top diplomat's been trying to engineer 0:02:11.520 --> 0:02:15.240 a ceasefire between Israel and Iran backed militias since the 0:02:15.280 --> 0:02:18.000 attack more than a year ago. Bloomberg's Paul Wallace says 0:02:18.080 --> 0:02:20.800 this round of talks is unlikely to change things. 0:02:21.480 --> 0:02:24.040 Israel at the moment sees itself as on the front 0:02:24.080 --> 0:02:29.080 foot and degrading Hamas and Hezwella to a massive degree. 0:02:29.280 --> 0:02:32.440 And it thinks that these military gains that it's been 0:02:32.440 --> 0:02:35.799 making in the last several weeks, if not a few months, 0:02:35.960 --> 0:02:38.240 are very much in its favor when it comes to 0:02:38.760 --> 0:02:43.799 eventual diplomatic talks and eventual ceasefire negotiations. 0:02:44.600 --> 0:02:48.200 Bloomberg's Paul Wallace ads Secretary Blincoln's visit comes as Israel's 0:02:48.200 --> 0:02:51.040 retaliation against Iran is still yet to come. The US 0:02:51.120 --> 0:02:54.400 maintains Israel's killing of Hamas leader Yaikiya sin War last 0:02:54.400 --> 0:02:56.680 week could open the way for a breakthrough, even though 0:02:56.720 --> 0:03:00.200 Hamas leaders and Netanyah, who have both vowed to fight on. 0:03:00.800 --> 0:03:03.040 Well, let's turn to the markets now, Nathan and bonds 0:03:03.080 --> 0:03:06.640 have been selling off, and that's pushing yields higher and higher. 0:03:06.680 --> 0:03:10.000 Bloomberg John Tucker joins us with more, John, good morning, 0:03:10.080 --> 0:03:11.239 and what's behind the move? 0:03:11.639 --> 0:03:11.760 Well? 0:03:11.840 --> 0:03:13.920 Current the market no longer sure the Fed's going to 0:03:13.919 --> 0:03:16.880 cut rates in each of the next three FOMC meetings. 0:03:17.240 --> 0:03:21.240 Strong employment data for September that whittled away the expectations. 0:03:21.600 --> 0:03:23.920 Traders are positioning for a likelihood that there's going to 0:03:23.919 --> 0:03:26.800 be at least one meeting when the FED stays on hold. 0:03:27.280 --> 0:03:30.320 At your Denny Is with your Denny Research, we. 0:03:30.320 --> 0:03:33.640 Have some FED officials already kind of walking back the 0:03:33.680 --> 0:03:36.680 idea that there's going to be a fifty basis point 0:03:36.680 --> 0:03:39.720 cut at the November meeting, or even walking back the 0:03:39.760 --> 0:03:42.360 idea that we necessarily will have two twenty five basis 0:03:42.360 --> 0:03:42.920 point cuts. 0:03:43.800 --> 0:03:46.600 As for FED officials, Jeffrey Schmidt, president of the Kansas 0:03:46.600 --> 0:03:49.360 City FED, said he favored a cautious and gradual approach. 0:03:49.800 --> 0:03:52.640 Neil kesh Curry the Minneapolis FED, said he would need 0:03:52.680 --> 0:03:55.800 real evidence the labor market is weakening quickly before he'd 0:03:55.840 --> 0:03:59.480 moved from a cautious path. The prospect of bigger fiscal 0:03:59.520 --> 0:04:03.760 deficit after elections next month only compounding the market's concerns. 0:04:04.160 --> 0:04:06.040 You see the ten year yield rising back of a 0:04:06.200 --> 0:04:09.000 four point two percent for the first time since July. 0:04:09.480 --> 0:04:10.000 In New York. 0:04:10.040 --> 0:04:11.960 I'm John Tucker, Bloomberg Radio. 0:04:12.200 --> 0:04:14.800 Thanks John, It's another busy day for earnings, with nearly 0:04:14.880 --> 0:04:18.680 thirty companies reporting, including GM. Let's get a preview from 0:04:18.680 --> 0:04:19.840 Bloomberg's Tom Busby. 0:04:20.160 --> 0:04:23.720 General Motors expected to report reduce losses from its electric 0:04:23.880 --> 0:04:27.040 vehicle lineup, and even though vehicle sales in the third 0:04:27.080 --> 0:04:29.960 quarter were down, prices were kept higher as even though 0:04:30.000 --> 0:04:33.440 some competitors offered more discounts ad in the benefits it 0:04:33.640 --> 0:04:36.120 likely got from its recent stock buyback plans, and that 0:04:36.120 --> 0:04:39.120 should all give GM a boost. Investors will also be 0:04:39.160 --> 0:04:42.720 watching for any improvements and outlook for its operations in China, 0:04:42.920 --> 0:04:46.440 which has lost money the past two quarters. Bloomberg consensus 0:04:46.480 --> 0:04:49.360 calls for revenues of forty four point sixty nine billion 0:04:49.400 --> 0:04:52.479 dollars and adjusted earnings per share two dollars and forty 0:04:52.480 --> 0:04:53.200 five cents. 0:04:53.360 --> 0:04:55.200 Tom Busby Bloomberg. 0:04:54.760 --> 0:04:57.279 Radio, All right, Tom, thank you all. Shares of SAP 0:04:57.520 --> 0:05:01.120 up about five percent overseas cloud revenue swored at Europe's 0:05:01.160 --> 0:05:05.560 biggest software company, SAP is transitioning customers away from locally 0:05:05.640 --> 0:05:09.880 run systems with the promise of artificial intelligence tools and analytics. 0:05:10.000 --> 0:05:10.400 Well Karen. 0:05:10.400 --> 0:05:14.080 One of Europe's biggest banks, HSBC, has begun its biggest 0:05:14.080 --> 0:05:17.240 restructuring in a decade. Let's go to London and get 0:05:17.240 --> 0:05:19.800 the latest with Bloomberg's Ewan Pots, Ewan. 0:05:20.400 --> 0:05:22.520 Nathan and Karen. One of the world's biggest banks is 0:05:22.600 --> 0:05:27.240 reshaping its global structure. HSBC will combine its commercial and 0:05:27.360 --> 0:05:32.000 institutional banking operations, and it's creating a new international wealth 0:05:32.040 --> 0:05:34.800 and premiere banking business. It's all part of a plan 0:05:34.920 --> 0:05:37.880 by the London based lenders new CEO to cut costs 0:05:38.000 --> 0:05:42.839 and reduce complexity. HSBC has also named a new CFO, 0:05:42.920 --> 0:05:45.800 its first female finance director in its one hundred and 0:05:45.880 --> 0:05:49.479 fifty nine year history in London. I'm Une Pots Bloomberg. 0:05:49.080 --> 0:05:50.919 Radio, all right you in thank you Well. Here in 0:05:50.960 --> 0:05:53.880 the US, banks will now have to give customers access 0:05:53.880 --> 0:05:57.599 to their financial data after the top consumer watchdog finalized 0:05:57.640 --> 0:06:01.200 a long awaited rule aimed at fueling more competition for 0:06:01.279 --> 0:06:05.680 financial products. Under the Consumer Financial Protection Bureau measure, consumers 0:06:05.920 --> 0:06:08.880 will be able to demand, download, and transfer their highly 0:06:08.920 --> 0:06:12.920 coveted data to another lender or financial services provider for free. 0:06:13.160 --> 0:06:15.640 The Open Banking Rule, as it's known, is aimed at 0:06:15.640 --> 0:06:19.080 making it easier for consumers to switch providers to access 0:06:19.200 --> 0:06:24.279 better rates. Time Now for a look at some of 0:06:24.279 --> 0:06:26.320 the other stories making news in New York and around 0:06:26.360 --> 0:06:28.400 the world, and for that we're joined by Blowberg's Michael 0:06:28.440 --> 0:06:29.880 Barr Michael, Good Morning. 0:06:29.720 --> 0:06:32.320 Good Morning, Karen. More support for a new trial and 0:06:32.440 --> 0:06:36.520 a death row case in Texas. Supporters of Robert Robertson 0:06:36.960 --> 0:06:40.360 insists that his two thousand and three conviction and the 0:06:40.440 --> 0:06:42.479 killing of his two year old daughter was based on 0:06:42.600 --> 0:06:47.880 the now discredited shaken baby syndrome theory. State Representative Lacy 0:06:48.000 --> 0:06:51.200 Hull test five before state lawmakers. She is backing a 0:06:51.240 --> 0:06:52.800 new trial for Robertson. 0:06:53.320 --> 0:06:56.200 Let the jury make up their mind, but he deserves 0:06:56.240 --> 0:06:58.400 a real defense and a fair trial. 0:06:59.040 --> 0:07:03.800 Robertson has high profile support, including psychologist Phil McGraw that 0:07:03.920 --> 0:07:04.920 are known as Doctor Phil. 0:07:05.640 --> 0:07:10.080 If we start executing people in Texas absent due process, 0:07:10.240 --> 0:07:15.080 absent fair trial, we are going down a really dangerous roague. 0:07:15.360 --> 0:07:19.920 Also among Doctor Phil supporting Robertson, author John Grisham, A 0:07:20.040 --> 0:07:22.800 powerful new drug is making headlines in the US. An 0:07:22.840 --> 0:07:26.840 autopsy has revealed former One Direction singer Liam Payne had 0:07:26.920 --> 0:07:31.040 multiple drugs in his system, including pink cocaine, when he 0:07:31.120 --> 0:07:34.240 plunged off a balcony in Argentina last week, dying at 0:07:34.280 --> 0:07:37.080 the age of thirty one. The drug has also been 0:07:37.120 --> 0:07:40.800 linked to rappers Sean Diddy Combs. Despite its name, there 0:07:40.880 --> 0:07:44.200 is often no cocaine in the mix of drugs, which 0:07:44.280 --> 0:07:48.640 acts as both a stimulant and depressant. Former DEA official 0:07:48.760 --> 0:07:50.440 Bill Bodner, it's. 0:07:50.280 --> 0:07:52.320 Been in the United States for a little while now, 0:07:52.480 --> 0:07:55.440 not it hasn't been as popular as it's becoming now. 0:07:56.040 --> 0:07:59.760 Public health officials are warning parents the designer drug with 0:07:59.840 --> 0:08:02.960 the it's bright color is growing in popularity among teens 0:08:03.000 --> 0:08:07.240 and young adults. Cuba's capital remains paralyzed, as the island 0:08:07.280 --> 0:08:09.960 had a fourth night of a massive blackout that has 0:08:10.040 --> 0:08:13.360 generated both a handful of small protests and a stern 0:08:13.440 --> 0:08:17.920 government warning that any unarrest will be punished. Meanwhile, Hurricane 0:08:17.920 --> 0:08:21.840 Oscar crossed the island's eastern coast with winds and heavy 0:08:22.000 --> 0:08:26.560 rain Sunday night, leaving at least six dead. Filmmaker Steven 0:08:26.600 --> 0:08:30.520 Spielberg is among twenty recipients of the National Medals of Arts. 0:08:30.880 --> 0:08:35.040 President Biden also honored nineteen recipients of National Humanities Medals, 0:08:35.360 --> 0:08:40.000 including playwright screenwriter Aaron Sorkin. After presenting the medals. The 0:08:40.040 --> 0:08:42.559 President had a message to the recipients. 0:08:42.200 --> 0:08:48.440 With absolute courage, you combat racial stereotypes, confront ghosts of history, 0:08:49.120 --> 0:08:50.760 and speak truth to power. 0:08:51.600 --> 0:08:55.520 Filmmakers Spike Lee and Ken Burns, and singers Missy Elliott 0:08:55.520 --> 0:08:58.880 and Queen Latifah were also honored with Medals of Art 0:08:58.920 --> 0:09:01.400 at the White House. Global News twenty four hours a 0:09:01.480 --> 0:09:04.199 day and whenever you want it with Bloomberg News Now. 0:09:04.360 --> 0:09:06.360 I'm Michael Barr, and this is Bloomberg. 0:09:06.440 --> 0:09:06.720 Karen. 0:09:06.880 --> 0:09:13.800 All right, Michael Barr, thank you time now for the 0:09:13.800 --> 0:09:16.640 Bloomberg scores. Up date Broncky you by trying state OUTI 0:09:16.679 --> 0:09:18.280 here's John Stanshawer, John. 0:09:18.160 --> 0:09:19.440 Good morning, Good morning, Karen. 0:09:19.480 --> 0:09:23.360 The NBA season tips off tonight in Boston Celtics and Knicks. 0:09:23.440 --> 0:09:26.360 Celtics will hoist their eighteenth championship bender. It was one 0:09:26.400 --> 0:09:29.040 of their greatest seasons ever regular in postseason combined, they 0:09:29.080 --> 0:09:32.080 went eighty and twenty one. Vegas as them as the 0:09:32.120 --> 0:09:34.240 favorites to repeat. But the Knicks were good last year 0:09:34.280 --> 0:09:37.199 and figure to be even better with the additions of Karl, 0:09:37.200 --> 0:09:40.000 Anthony Towns and Michel Bridges. The undeniable leader of the 0:09:40.080 --> 0:09:43.559 next is Jalen Brunson coach Tump Tibeau had never before. 0:09:43.320 --> 0:09:46.440 Named a team captain that he has with Brunson. 0:09:47.480 --> 0:09:50.320 Jalen's not one of those guys. It's gonna get up 0:09:50.360 --> 0:09:52.400 in front of the team and say you gotta do this, 0:09:52.600 --> 0:09:55.760 you gotta do that. But you know, Bubba buh. What 0:09:55.840 --> 0:09:59.080 you're gonna see from Jalen is him coming in early 0:09:59.160 --> 0:10:02.920 every day, went through his routine, great concentration, great work 0:10:02.960 --> 0:10:08.319 at the team, oriented all about his teammates. To me, 0:10:08.559 --> 0:10:10.280 there's no better leadership than that. 0:10:10.400 --> 0:10:12.560 One of the game tonight, that's Minnesota taking on the 0:10:12.640 --> 0:10:16.480 Lakers Lebron James starting his twenty second NBA season. New 0:10:16.520 --> 0:10:20.600 Lakers coach JJ Reddick hasn't said whether Lebron's son, Bronni, 0:10:20.720 --> 0:10:23.200 will join him on the court. If he does, it's 0:10:23.280 --> 0:10:26.040 NBA history. It's only happened once in baseball nineteen ninety 0:10:26.080 --> 0:10:29.720 in Seattle, Ken Griffy senior and junior played together. 0:10:29.840 --> 0:10:32.840 The Griffies will be at the game tonight in La Baltimore. 0:10:32.920 --> 0:10:35.400 Ravens with their fifth straight win, led by Lamar Jackson 0:10:35.440 --> 0:10:38.600 making a case for another MVP through five touchdown passes 0:10:38.960 --> 0:10:41.080 in a forty one thirty one win at Tampa Bay 0:10:41.080 --> 0:10:43.160 Derrick Henry Rush for one hundred and sixty nine yards 0:10:43.200 --> 0:10:46.080 James Conner one hundred and fifty two all purpose yards 0:10:46.160 --> 0:10:48.160 Arizona on the last second field goal top the LA 0:10:48.280 --> 0:10:51.760 Chargers seventeen fifteen. Injury news inclod a couple of season 0:10:51.840 --> 0:10:54.440 enders Browns QB DeShawn Watson, who was not having a 0:10:54.440 --> 0:10:57.960 good season, now out ruptured Achilles forty nine ers white out, 0:10:57.960 --> 0:11:01.960 Brandon Eye torn acl The ribbage suffered by Washington star 0:11:02.080 --> 0:11:04.760 rookie QB Jane Daniels may keep him out this week, 0:11:04.800 --> 0:11:08.080 but it's not long term. Aaron Boone confirmed the obvious 0:11:08.120 --> 0:11:10.160 Garrett Cole will start Game one of the World Series 0:11:10.160 --> 0:11:12.400 for the Yankees Friday in Los Angeles. 0:11:12.600 --> 0:11:14.560 John Stashanmwer Bloomberg Sports Care. 0:11:14.640 --> 0:11:21.440 Navan Coast to Coast on Bloomberg Radio, nationwide on Sirius XM, 0:11:21.520 --> 0:11:24.440 and around the world on Bloomberg dot Com and the 0:11:24.480 --> 0:11:28.679 Bloomberg Business app. This is Bloomberg Daybreak. Good morning, I'm 0:11:28.720 --> 0:11:29.400 Nathan Hager. 0:11:29.440 --> 0:11:32.440 With two weeks left until the election, Donald Trump and 0:11:32.520 --> 0:11:36.520 Kamala Harris are both scouring the battleground states for every 0:11:36.720 --> 0:11:38.960 last swing vote they can find. 0:11:39.040 --> 0:11:39.760 In our movement. 0:11:39.800 --> 0:11:44.120 We love Christians, we welcome believers, and we embrace followers 0:11:44.160 --> 0:11:44.800 of Jesus. 0:11:45.000 --> 0:11:47.400 You know, every election we said this is the one, 0:11:47.400 --> 0:11:50.880 this is the one, This truly is the one. 0:11:51.040 --> 0:11:53.000 And from where I'm where this election stands. We are 0:11:53.040 --> 0:11:57.040 joined now by Bloomberg News Managing Editor Derek Wallbank. Derek, 0:11:57.040 --> 0:11:59.800 good morning. So we've had Donald Trump in North Carolina 0:12:00.440 --> 0:12:03.720 continuing to make unfounded claims about Hurricane aid, while Kamala 0:12:03.800 --> 0:12:07.440 Harris has been slamming Trump's economic plans in the midwestern 0:12:07.440 --> 0:12:10.680 Blue Wall states. Does any of this move the needle? 0:12:11.679 --> 0:12:14.000 Well, Nathan, the question right now is who are these 0:12:15.440 --> 0:12:16.520 people speaking to? 0:12:17.000 --> 0:12:17.200 Right? 0:12:17.240 --> 0:12:20.640 And it's really interesting because as far diverged as Kamala 0:12:20.720 --> 0:12:23.840 Harris and Donald Trump are on any number of things, 0:12:24.360 --> 0:12:26.920 you can actually find some commonalities in who they actually 0:12:27.000 --> 0:12:30.240 are speaking to. I mean, Kamala Harris right now barnstorming 0:12:31.280 --> 0:12:38.640 places like Pennsylvania, Michigan, Wisconsin with with Liz Cheney. That's 0:12:38.640 --> 0:12:41.000 an appeal to those Nicki Haley voters, the people who 0:12:41.040 --> 0:12:44.520 are still voting for Nicki Haley even after she'd lost right, 0:12:45.520 --> 0:12:48.920 and there are many of them in those three states. Now, 0:12:49.360 --> 0:12:52.480 the simple fact of the math is that if Kamala 0:12:52.480 --> 0:12:55.720 Harris wins in Omaha, Nebraska and then goes and wins 0:12:55.720 --> 0:12:58.720 the Blue Wall, she's the president. Right, That's ball game. 0:12:59.120 --> 0:13:04.520 That's literally how numbers work. The thing that Donald Trump 0:13:04.600 --> 0:13:09.440 has though, is he's we're starting to see some of 0:13:09.480 --> 0:13:13.640 these early vote numbers coming in, and in places like 0:13:13.720 --> 0:13:17.720 North Carolina where Trump was, in places like Nevada, you 0:13:17.760 --> 0:13:20.280 are seeing some numbers come in that the Trump team 0:13:20.360 --> 0:13:22.440 is exceptionally happy about. 0:13:23.280 --> 0:13:25.640 Talk a little bit more about that. What are we 0:13:25.880 --> 0:13:29.360 learning when it comes to early voting at this point. 0:13:29.559 --> 0:13:33.000 Well, it's tough, Nathan, right, Remember, because if we're baselining 0:13:33.040 --> 0:13:35.720 off of twenty twenty, we're baselining off of a COVID 0:13:35.760 --> 0:13:40.240 election where Democrats were only too happy to vote almost entirely, 0:13:40.440 --> 0:13:42.800 you know, by mail, and there was such a big, 0:13:43.520 --> 0:13:47.719 big divergence between mail and in person and the likes 0:13:47.760 --> 0:13:52.400 that we really hadn't seen before. Republicans have definitely emphasized 0:13:52.440 --> 0:13:56.160 mail more and early vote more, and both sides are 0:13:56.160 --> 0:14:00.720 trying to bank votes. But we are seeing, certainly, you know, 0:14:00.960 --> 0:14:04.520 in Nevada, we're seeing a bit of an outperformance among 0:14:04.760 --> 0:14:09.440 rural voters we're seeing the vote in Las Vegas. The 0:14:09.440 --> 0:14:13.839 big Democratic bulwark isn't really where it has been in 0:14:13.880 --> 0:14:18.640 prior cycles, certainly relatively. At the same time, if I'm 0:14:18.679 --> 0:14:21.240 looking for good news for Kamala Harris, I'll tell you 0:14:21.360 --> 0:14:23.360 I would find it in some of the gender gaps 0:14:23.360 --> 0:14:26.160 that I'm seeing in some of these early states. You know, 0:14:26.480 --> 0:14:28.280 you're seeing in some of these places in the early 0:14:28.360 --> 0:14:31.920 vote women out voting men by maybe eight to nine 0:14:31.960 --> 0:14:35.680 percentage points, And every single poll that we can see 0:14:36.160 --> 0:14:39.240 is basically saying that there's likely to be an incredibly 0:14:39.320 --> 0:14:42.680 high gender gap here, with women voting far more for 0:14:42.800 --> 0:14:46.000 Harris and men voting far more for Trump. Again, let 0:14:46.000 --> 0:14:49.240 me reduce this. I'm vastly oversimplifying it here, so all 0:14:49.280 --> 0:14:52.120 those disclaimers, but if you just sort of figured that 0:14:52.160 --> 0:14:55.440 there was an even breakout right in terms of women 0:14:55.520 --> 0:14:59.920 for Harris and men for Trump, and then more women vote, 0:15:00.200 --> 0:15:02.320 you know, the math to that suggests that that's good 0:15:02.320 --> 0:15:05.640 news for Kamala Harris. So there are positive indicators for 0:15:05.760 --> 0:15:09.160 both sides depending on where you look across these seven 0:15:09.720 --> 0:15:14.800 critical battleground states. I do think one of the biggest commonalities, though, Nathan, 0:15:14.880 --> 0:15:16.880 is that you see again and again and again. Both 0:15:16.920 --> 0:15:20.240 of these candidates keep returning to Pennsylvania. In all of 0:15:20.280 --> 0:15:24.320 the election map modeling that I'm doing right now, the 0:15:24.360 --> 0:15:27.800 most likely tipping point state where you know that you 0:15:27.840 --> 0:15:31.040 know its ballgame is Pennsylvania. 0:15:31.000 --> 0:15:33.960 Just thirty seconds left. Along with presidential politics, we have 0:15:34.040 --> 0:15:36.800 geopolitics and Secretary of State b Lincoln back in the 0:15:36.840 --> 0:15:39.360 Middle East? Is there a chance for a ceasefire with 0:15:39.440 --> 0:15:40.840 two weeks to go before the election? 0:15:41.360 --> 0:15:44.560 Well, Anthony Blincoln look is on trip number eleven, and 0:15:44.880 --> 0:15:47.040 I do think that the US is trying to find 0:15:47.120 --> 0:15:50.920 any way toward a ceasefire. They're wondering now whether or 0:15:50.960 --> 0:15:55.640 not the conditions on the ground with the death of 0:15:55.720 --> 0:15:59.840 the Hamas leader you know and others, has changed enough. 0:16:00.720 --> 0:16:04.480 Hard to say right now, but the Biden administration does 0:16:04.600 --> 0:16:07.960 keep trying and maybe at one point they succeed, but 0:16:08.120 --> 0:16:12.760 we haven't necessarily seen a massive change on the ground. 0:16:12.880 --> 0:16:16.040 Benjamin Netniaw who's been very clear Israel's Prime Minister that 0:16:16.160 --> 0:16:19.120 the condition for a ceasefire is released the hostages, and 0:16:19.160 --> 0:16:20.280 that has not happened. 0:16:20.520 --> 0:16:23.960 This is Bloomberg Daybreak, your morning podcast on the stories 0:16:24.040 --> 0:16:27.080 making news from Wall Street to Washington and beyond. 0:16:27.320 --> 0:16:29.720 Look for us on your podcast feed by six am 0:16:29.760 --> 0:16:33.160 Eastern each morning, on Apple, Spotify, or anywhere else you listen. 0:16:33.360 --> 0:16:36.160 You can also listen live each morning starting at five 0:16:36.240 --> 0:16:38.960 am Wall Street Time on Bloomberg eleven three to zero 0:16:38.960 --> 0:16:41.880 in New York, Bloomberg ninety nine to one in Washington, 0:16:41.920 --> 0:16:45.880 Bloomberg ninety two nine in Boston, and nationwide on serious 0:16:46.080 --> 0:16:47.640 XM Channel one twenty one. 0:16:48.040 --> 0:16:50.760 Plus listen coast to coast on the Bloomberg Business app 0:16:50.800 --> 0:16:53.640 now with Apple CarPlay and Android Atto interfaces. 0:16:53.840 --> 0:16:56.840 And don't forget to subscribe to Bloomberg News Now. It's 0:16:56.880 --> 0:16:59.560 the latest news whenever you want it in five minutes 0:16:59.680 --> 0:17:02.840 or less. Search Bloomberg News Now on your favorite podcast 0:17:02.840 --> 0:17:07.080 platform to stay informed all day long. I'm Karen Moscow. 0:17:06.800 --> 0:17:07.800 And I'm Nathan Hager. 0:17:07.920 --> 0:17:10.000 Join us again tomorrow morning for all the news you 0:17:10.040 --> 0:17:12.800 need to start your day right here on Bloomberg Dbreak