Week 14 NFL Picks with Cynthia Frelund

00:00:02
Speaker 1: Welcome to NFL Daily, where we're home to the greatest streak in sports. Right now, I'm Greg Rosenthal here in the Chris Westling podcast studio with my friend Cynthia Freeland, who's raising her eyebrows as if she isn't aware that the entire building is talking about my chance this week to make it ten straight winning weeks on the Man Versus Model.

00:00:27
Speaker 2: Second, let's go.

00:00:28
Speaker 3: I love it. That's great.

00:00:30
Speaker 2: Nobody's talking about this. Everyone's only I care.

00:00:32
Speaker 3: I actually heard about it on my way in.

00:00:34
Speaker 2: Yeah, I doubt it.

00:00:35
Speaker 1: I have been just texting our our producer on game debut, you know, Hype them, who keeps track of the records for us furiously every week, and you know, I'm on the edge of my seat. And we got another two in one record last week. So yes, that's that's nine straight weeks with the winning record. Cynthia, wasn't a perfect week for you. That overtime game with the Commanders was a little annoying when they came back. Whatever, She's She's gonna rebound good time. Should I go first?

00:01:04
Speaker 2: Left? You've got a lot of games, you know, they're.

00:01:07
Speaker 3: Seven we go through.

00:01:09
Speaker 1: The playoffs, so that's where I fell apart last year, so hopefully that does not happen.

00:01:14
Speaker 2: Right now, I'll go first. How about that.

00:01:17
Speaker 3: Let's do it.

00:01:18
Speaker 1: I'm going to Houston plus three and a half as my first pick, and I know you're on the other side of that least in terms of wins. I don't know about what you think in terms of the spread. This isn't about the numbers, and I'm big game hunting. I'm going after, uh, some of the big teams in the league this week. I look at this Chiefs team and I look at the Texans, and the Chiefs could win this game. But three and a half in a game that I think the Texans have a decent chance to win, straight up, I'll take it. The obvious point here is the injured Chiefs offensive line, maybe down two to three starters against This pass rush is brutal. But what helps me put it over the top is CJ. Stroud with a little bit of pass protection. If you look at the offensive line numbers over the last month, when it was Davis Mills, when it was CJ. Stratt, it's average. They look normal. They just look like a normal offense. They struggle a little bit in short yardage. But you look at this Chiefs defense and they are struggling to get pressure when they blitz. They are bottom of the league in creating pressure. And so yes, Steve Spagnolo could create some pressure. But I think where these two teams are right now. I like the Texans to win this game and at the very least cover that spread. And yeah, that that extra half point it hooked me. Okay, that's what happens.

00:02:34
Speaker 2: Yeah, it's not a personal shot at you.

00:02:37
Speaker 3: You know, I don't feel a front time.

00:02:39
Speaker 2: Okay, good.

00:02:40
Speaker 3: It's hard to pick against Patrick Mahomes ever, but you know.

00:02:45
Speaker 1: This season it's worked out, okay, And I know the numbers and you can maybe explain that a little more to me. I feel like both in Vegas and maybe your numbers have been higher on the Chiefs this year than their win loss record.

00:02:58
Speaker 2: Is there any big reason for that?

00:03:00
Speaker 3: Reasons Number one, the number of penalties that they're having every single week, especially the holding calls on offense. Part of the when you have a lot of different online combinations, that stuff can happen. However, it historically has not been a hallmark of what Andy Reid coaches. So it is you're seeing a lot of penalties. So in order for the Chiefs to win this game, you're to have fewer penalties, you know, not double digits, let's just go with that, and fewer offensive holding penalties. And then also Patrick Mahomes's ability to scramble just narrowly puts them over the top because you can get this amazing number one scoring, number one total defense on the ground a little bit more, which is why I don't know why Jonathan Taylor wasn't used more last week. That was weird.

00:03:43
Speaker 1: Might have been an injury now because we see Jonathan Taylor on the injury report. Was not expected to see that. And look, this was a matchup. If you remember last year, late in the season, there was a pre Christmas game Texans gave him a pretty good game at that point, playoff game not quite as competitive, reminds me, and I don't want to bring up any bad memories, just a little bit of the green Bay Detroit dynamic where the second time around on Thanksgiving, when Green Bay won that game, you're like, Okay, this year really feels different. And maybe I'm just wish casting here, but how about this defense which has been excellent all year? And I think is the special unit that's in this game. Go out there and be special, do something special, and that's end the dynasty, or at least end this year's Chiefs, because if.

00:04:28
Speaker 4: They lose this game, you'reasy, you're not gonna end the dynasty, but you can end this year's Chiefs season by going out kill them off and the rest of the AFC O'll thank you, all right, what's.

00:04:39
Speaker 3: Your Everyone will thank them. They'll be like thank you notes galore to Houston.

00:04:44
Speaker 2: You know.

00:04:47
Speaker 3: This is an interesting one, all right because I like it, But I mean whatever, who cares like I'm going for broke here? I see the numbers five and a half for Buffalo at home. M hmm against the Bengals. I know that Joe Burrow is two to no huge sample size there, that's just a massive sample size against the Bills. Playoff implications in that one. They went to the super Bowl after beating the Bills five and a half. That's a tasty little snack right there. In large part, I just think I don't actually care if we see like the things that Joe Burrow does well, which is Jamar Chase, and I do think he'll still have a big game. I just don't think that. Because you have Christian Benfer, you have the defense for the Bills. They're much more generous to the run than they are to the pass. I think we'll see some success with the passing situation for Joe Burrow, but Josh Allen the control from that run game James Cook. The Bengals defense doesn't put up much of a fight against strong run games. Khalil Shaker being that little bounce off the top. I think that this is where the Bills at home the might they play better at home? I hate home was splits. We can talk without that another time, but they do have a nice at home situation here. I think the Bills need to keep it together.

00:06:06
Speaker 1: Okay, I did not have a hot take either way on this game. I don't know what to think because you could convince me that way that you just did. I know the Bengals defense, their numbers have been better since the bye, but this is the Bills running rush.

00:06:19
Speaker 3: Who's gonna who? They have eighteen sacks?

00:06:22
Speaker 2: Yeah, and who goes sack? Nobody?

00:06:25
Speaker 1: Nobody on that team without Trey Hendrickson and he's not playing, will be sacking.

00:06:30
Speaker 3: So you think Josh Allen with some time.

00:06:32
Speaker 2: Yeah, Josh Allen with time and the running game.

00:06:35
Speaker 1: Ye, you think that they're gonna put up plenty of points on the on the flip side, No Joey Bosa this week, and you said you got to tack him on the ground. You have Chase Brown, he's been playing well like they could do that. I could see a scenario where it's just back and forth. It's a great game, and so the five and a half scares me. But you know what is another point in your favor But it almost seems like they're asking me able to take Cincinnata. I feel like the public is very much going to be on the Bengalskaeels.

00:07:07
Speaker 3: More like like you think maybe the Bills win, but like by a touchdown, all right, a field goal, excuse me, not the full touchdown.

00:07:14
Speaker 1: And that the Bengals they have Joe Burrow back. They're probably gonna have t Higgins back. We don't know that right now as we're taping, but he's practicing. He's probably going to be clear. I have him Friday fact, Okay, I like that one. Okay, you next, I'm going Chargers. I'm going Chargers to cover three points against the Eagles and that's what I'm talking about, big game hunting. We keep going after the teams that were in the Super Bowl last year. We're not trying to, you know, go over a big number, although there are a couple of those.

00:07:40
Speaker 2: I actually do.

00:07:41
Speaker 1: Like, I'm just trying to go for winners. And the Chargers are at home, they're underdogs. I think they are a better team than the Eagles. I just think it's close. And the Chargers are all over the place this year in general. But when you look at their EPA per play numbers on defense, it's close to the top of the league. They had that month where they really dip down, But what do they do well?

00:08:08
Speaker 2: They prevent the deep ball.

00:08:09
Speaker 1: What is Jalen Hurts really major in. It's like the only thing he does is throw that deep ball. They are healthier, the Chargers are on defense right now than any other time of the season. They're healthy in the back end, they're healthier up front. They came out of the by being a little more aggressive. And then when you look at the other side of the ball. Since we lasted an NFL daily, We've got the breaking news that Jalen Carter's out for this game. He had surgeries on his shoulders. That doesn't sound good. They're hoping he's back at some point this season, but he's really important, and he could have taken advantage of what is obviously the weakness for the Chargers on the offensive line, especially the interior line. You can make the case for the Eagles, I get it, but here's what they've overcome all year, a bad offensive line, and they do it by staying on the field. They are number two Cynthia in the league in plays per drive, so I think they can go on long drives and they can possess the ball a little bit like the Bears, although they'll do it I think by throwing the ball, whereas the Bears did it by running the ball.

00:09:08
Speaker 2: I like the Chargers to win.

00:09:09
Speaker 3: You know who's number one in place for drive?

00:09:11
Speaker 1: No, the Chiefs, Okay, just just I.

00:09:17
Speaker 3: I I think a close game is what's gonna happen in this one. I don't have a lean because as much as I like the Justin Herbert hand surgery on the non throwing hand, it doesn't I'm no doctor, yeah, but it doesn't sound good to have like a metal plate in your hand. We saw him take zero snaps under center after that happen against the Raiders. I don't know what that means. I do know. I've seen like all of the fun like things they do on TV where they like show like the Doctor, and they're like, this is what happens when you and you're like, okay, but like and I get that he's super tough.

00:09:52
Speaker 1: I have nothing, but you've seen him in person, right, of course, he's a striking guy. But if anyone can play with a broken hand, it's Herbo.

00:10:00
Speaker 3: I feel like I don't really know what it means, Like.

00:10:04
Speaker 1: You don't think his his height and his handsomeness is going to help him out overcoming the broken hand.

00:10:10
Speaker 3: Okay, but but I don't know like that. I don't under hear things that just baffle me.

00:10:15
Speaker 2: There's the next factor.

00:10:16
Speaker 3: Number one, Daniel Jones his legs somehow healing while his fractured leg healing while still playing. Don't get that. Number two I don't understand, justin Herbert's hand and surgeries and whatever. And number three, I don't know how to say the quarterback for Washington's last name, because that's my next.

00:10:32
Speaker 2: Pick, Mariota. I don't know.

00:10:34
Speaker 1: Look that probably came Mariota getting that extra hard t on the end of his name on the NBC broadcast last week. I'm sure he told them that, or they asked like and and, so that's more the like is that correct sort.

00:10:49
Speaker 3: Of I'm sure that it is. I've asked people who know him and they're like, I've never heard him say it like that. And then I asked Logan Ryan, I'm like, you're friends with him, you played on Tennessee and he was like, He's like, it's Mariota. It's not Mariota, it's Mariota.

00:11:04
Speaker 1: Well it's also you know, it's maybe it's Mike Tarico, just adding a little bit of that, Oh it wasn't too's Italian flair.

00:11:09
Speaker 2: But here's is.

00:11:10
Speaker 3: It like Barcelona, where like the natives there say Barcelona. Do you think it's that? It's like, I'm not.

00:11:16
Speaker 1: I think it's just like the correct way to say the number one tennis player's name in the world is not gonna try Carlos Alcorath.

00:11:23
Speaker 3: Yeah, I'm not saying that, you know, which.

00:11:25
Speaker 2: It's easier for me.

00:11:25
Speaker 1: I got a little bit of a lisp anyway, so I can just let it come out with the alcohol.

00:11:29
Speaker 3: I don't know, but I don't care who the quarterback is in that Washington game against Minnesota. What number are you seeing for that one it's in?

00:11:37
Speaker 2: I have the Vikings favored by one and a half. Okay, it's great either way.

00:11:40
Speaker 3: It's flip flopped around. I've seen one for Washington one to Minnesota. That means to me that it would feel like markets are predicting that JJ McCarthy is playing. That's what my guess would be. Why it flipped around. We don't yet know which quarterback. I don't care which which Washington quarterback is playing. Washington wins this one. There's two reasons. No, yes, I think they win it. So whatever way nets out being where Washington wins, and if Washington's favored by one, Washington wins by two. Okay, we get it.

00:12:10
Speaker 1: Why we're locking in today's prices In terms of this show, well, it's like a It's.

00:12:15
Speaker 3: Like Cyber Monday extended all.

00:12:17
Speaker 1: Honestly, though, how much even would it flip? I guess it could flip a lot. But Marcus Mariota has been playing great football. Yes, anyways, so I think he's gonna win that game too. I'm with you on this one.

00:12:28
Speaker 3: Okay, So what did I see last week Washington held the Broncos the number one pressure defense to their lowest pressure rate since twenty twenty three. It was sub twenty percent. That's number one. How did they do it with Zacher? It's a compliment of committing to the run game, et cetera. What do both of these quarterbacks do well? Jayden Daniels does it more often than Marcus Mariota, but they scramble, and those scrambling situations have not been optimal for Brian Flores's blitz happy defense. They've given up a ton of yards through the air, a ton of scramble rushing yards. These are just it's it's not a good fight for whoever the quarterback is. I do think this is like a fun aside that there are going to be points in the first quarter scored by both teams because both of have defensive vulnerabilities.

00:13:12
Speaker 2: Fun, that's something you can get in on.

00:13:14
Speaker 3: Yeah, you can get in on that action.

00:13:15
Speaker 2: But it's a.

00:13:16
Speaker 1: Little bit of first quarter over under. We can just say it market, we can just say it on this We're.

00:13:24
Speaker 3: Not I know, I didn't come up with the market. I just saw that it's there.

00:13:27
Speaker 1: I hope someone out is out there listening. I hope someone is taking down all my picks for the last nine weeks and cashing it in. Yeah, I'm going to be there live. By the way, I sofi watching that Chargers Eagles, I.

00:13:39
Speaker 3: Thought you're gonna be like in Minnesota's No.

00:13:41
Speaker 2: I will be in Minnesota for the four and eight Vikings.

00:13:45
Speaker 3: It's supposed to be like an Arctic tundra like all over the US this next week too, so we stay out of Minnesota.

00:13:51
Speaker 2: It's also the perfect time to.

00:13:55
Speaker 1: Pick that game like you are, because it's two teams that are out of it anyways. But this gives you a little more interest, you know, and a little more.

00:14:02
Speaker 3: Quarter scoring makes it even super exciting.

00:14:05
Speaker 1: By the way, I think the Commanders might be significantly better down the stretch than they've been in that their defense is showing signs since Dan Quinn took over play calling, from going from sure close to the league worst to just like okay. And if they're okay, the offense is going to carry them. And that Vikings team, the vibes are horrendous.

00:14:25
Speaker 3: Yeah, they don't seem good.

00:14:26
Speaker 1: And you're getting JJ McCarthy. Beck doesn't seem good, So I like that pick there. Okay, my final pick, your final one. I thought about the Rams, but I'm not going to do it. It's similar. I think the Rams will cover, but they spook me just like a tiny bit. If I was getting like incredibly bold, I would think about the Browns defense just putting a boa constrictor so much on the Titans that I have the Browns covering four and a half.

00:14:55
Speaker 2: Maybe you're even going there. I don't know.

00:14:56
Speaker 3: I was thinking about it.

00:14:58
Speaker 2: Okay, you can think about it.

00:14:59
Speaker 1: You can continue to think about it, because in the end, I'm gonna go Denver minus seven and a half.

00:15:05
Speaker 3: I like that one too.

00:15:06
Speaker 1: I feel like at certain points of the season, you have certain teams that you just keep going against until they prove you wrong. The Las Vegas Raiders are that team for me. They have not been appropriately priced. I don't think as one of the worst teams that we've seen in the last five years. Both them and the Titans are both like that right now. And I know that cover was up for grabs. It was actually a push until late in the game. That's what gave me a winning week. I went nuts in the newsroom, was Jim Harbaugh because I think he doesn't like Pete Carroll going for a touchdown late in that game and then winning by seventeen.

00:15:44
Speaker 3: You don't think.

00:15:45
Speaker 1: But Justin Herbert was playing with the broken hand, which is, by the way, why I'm not panicking too much about Justin Herbert because the way I figure it, Cynthia, I mean, I know, a surgically repaired broken hand sounds bad, but that can't be worse than if I just broke my hand.

00:16:01
Speaker 2: Broken hand that he played with last week and played pretty well, you know what I mean.

00:16:05
Speaker 1: He's walking out there with the hand away from his body was really incredible.

00:16:09
Speaker 3: I mean, but like maybe he's in shock. Then no, No, he was.

00:16:13
Speaker 1: Going like this too, Like he was throwing it and holding it up and then he was running.

00:16:16
Speaker 3: Oh I know, I saw it.

00:16:18
Speaker 2: It was crazy.

00:16:18
Speaker 3: Anyways, looked really painful.

00:16:20
Speaker 2: This is a rare revenge game for the Broncos where they're taking revenge on their poor performance from last time against the Raiders. It was on Thursday Night football.

00:16:30
Speaker 1: They were held to about two hundred and eighteen yards something like that in that game. It was gross and the weather I thought was an equalizer that night. It was windy, it was cold, it's going to be perfect inside of all allegiant. The Raiders have zero pass rush, and that's how you make bo Nicks make mistakes. And I think you put him inside the dome. I think they want to show after that game, which was a while ago, but also this commander's game, Hey, we want to have a dominant type of offensive performance. And more than anything, I just think you could give me ten and a half points, I'd feel okay. The fact that it's seven and a half, I love it. I love Denver winning this game by about twenty points.

00:17:14
Speaker 2: I'm up that line.

00:17:16
Speaker 3: I'm I'm completely with you. The only thing I will also add to that is that I'm pretty sure, as in one hundred percent positive that Chip Kelly did actually know the play calls and the protection oooh just so or clear? Uh yeah, one hundred percent hit.

00:17:34
Speaker 1: The jumping into the back and forth between Chip Kelly and Pete Carol breaking news here on NFL Daily's Pick Show.

00:17:41
Speaker 3: First of all, a guy who's called played for let's just use your brain. A guy who's called played for thirty years. He's not gonna be like, are you suggesting he's incompetent or senile? Like, that's ridiculous. Number one, Number two, a guy on the headset, I have confirmation that they know there's a sheet in front of someone that has it written out.

00:18:02
Speaker 2: Well, this Chip Kelly point you're making too.

00:18:04
Speaker 3: I'm not like a stand for whatever. I just think it's a ridiculous.

00:18:09
Speaker 2: It's also unnecessary and.

00:18:11
Speaker 1: So unnecessary, and it's it's made them have more people have more attention on what's going on with last five barbis Reisan.

00:18:18
Speaker 3: So how about last barbustreisand effect?

00:18:21
Speaker 1: So what happened last week with the Raiders. They had almost fifty percent of their yards in that game against the Chargers in one drive. Nothing was better. The offensive line was an absolute disaster. And you know who you're gonna play against this week, the team that's going for the all time sack record for a franchise, the Denver Broncos. So they're looking at the Raiders and they're saying, Oh, we can get ahead, we can rack up some sacks and go after that record.

00:18:48
Speaker 2: I think they're gonna win, and they're gonna win big.

00:18:50
Speaker 3: Fine, you convinced me with the racking up sacks thing. My last one's gonna be the Browns Okay, why I just like Miles Garrett to break the record.

00:18:58
Speaker 2: He's a week.

00:18:59
Speaker 3: No, he needs well three and half tie it four to actually break it. I think you can easily get three, see but okay, the four and a half. So they need to win by five points more, got it? That's what I'm taking, bounced to win by five or more. There's a couple of things going on with Tennessee. I don't understand. Number one, they're all line Miles Garrett anything the Browns could bring a very angry I love that interview. I have no idea which one, which one, uh Jenny names said, but I now want to know because like hilarious Shelby big week for host just.

00:19:38
Speaker 2: Saying you know, like it really was.

00:19:41
Speaker 3: I was like, am I like an alternate universe?

00:19:44
Speaker 2: Here a moment you know.

00:19:48
Speaker 3: We could go to we could go to Low's and you know, bring your host and I'm trying to get all our sponsors in.

00:19:53
Speaker 1: Okay, thank you. I'm sure they love being brought into this. But yeah, that showed the team unity. By the way, on the on that Brown defensive line, they all are playing well next to Miles Garrett too. I have to admit Mason Graham, who wasn't really high on that draft pick. He's been making some plays lately, yep. And that Titans team they give up a lot of sex.

00:20:10
Speaker 3: I just think this is where you see. This is where So last week a lot of Browns fans were questioning some of the calls that Kevin Sefanski was making, like fourth down and going for punting when whatever. I'm looking at this and I'm saying they're saying, chaud War is like an X factor, so they're gonna try to use any of the interesting things, like the perception that he drifts in the pocket. It feels like they're trying to turn like the negative into a positive by being like, oh, yeah, well he's gonna look like he's gonna drift. But really we're doing this like the element of surprise. And I just don't think that this Titans defense big plays or something they give up. We've seen Shador Sanders complete some pretty big plays already, thirty plus yard receptions like that kind of I don't know. It could be chaos and I like chaos, but I don't know. I just like, I like this like rookie. But I will say I also think it's a big quinch on Judkins' week. Yes, think Harold fan and the rookies for the Browns, big big week for Brown's rookies.

00:21:04
Speaker 1: So you mentioned Mariota, you mentioned Quinn John Jenkins. Those two guys might be mentioned in our next show that's going to be in the feed, which is our all underrated team Oh offense, at least they I think the offense.

00:21:20
Speaker 3: Does Brenton Strange get in there.

00:21:22
Speaker 1: I don't want to spoil the show with Ali Connelly, but you might have just spoiled one of the tight end picks.

00:21:27
Speaker 3: Yes, love, that is my pick for the year. I just did like a whole like win like win analysis of who's adding more watch him when he's not the subject of a pack. The man is a blocker. The man is in the faces of defenses. He's helping Trevor Lawrence, whoever. Breton Strange. I've never met you, sir, but I enjoy tracking. I enjoy your work. I wasn't familiar with your game until this year. You know, I was really start to finish. He's had a heck of your I know I got hurt for a little bit, but whatever.

00:21:56
Speaker 1: This is the official podcast of Brenton Strange it is for at least this week. Okay, Cynthia has the Browns minus four and a half. She has the Bills covering five and a half at home and Washington as the road upset.

00:22:09
Speaker 2: Love that Washington pick. I should have maybe snatched it from you. Good job by you.

00:22:13
Speaker 1: I took the Texans to cover three and a half against the Chiefs on Sunday night. I have the Chargers to cover three points on Monday night. And I'd like the Broncos on Sunday afternoon in a game that not many people will be watching because it's opposite Bears Packers. I'm looking forward to that one. But the Broncos covering seven and a half? Can I do it? Can I get to double digits ten straight?

00:22:37
Speaker 3: I believe in you.

00:22:38
Speaker 1: I'd like to not mention the fact that the first four weeks of the season were four straight losing weeks. Whatever, nine is greater than four.

00:22:45
Speaker 3: This is a what have you done for me lately?

00:22:47
Speaker 2: League?

00:22:47
Speaker 3: And not a big don't even remember.

00:22:49
Speaker 1: The first few weeks and studio and yes, as I mentioned, we'll be back on the show with our all underrated team talking about offense. That is the Saturday Sickos show with myself and only Connolly.

00:23:01
Speaker 2: We will see that. Mhm