791: Mailbag 8/25/23

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Speaker 1: This is the Late Podcast with your host JAYJ Zafter, Retha.

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Speaker 2: Ja Ja zacher reefon.

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Speaker 1: What's up everyone.

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Speaker 2: It's JJ Zacharyeson in this episode seven and ninety one of the Late Round Fantasy Football podcast sponsored by FanDuel.

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Speaker 1: Thanks for tuning in.

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Speaker 2: I've got three things before we get into today's mailbag questions. First, make sure you check out the Established the Run podcast. My show, the Late Round Fantasy Football podcast is generally a quick and concise one to get you in and out.

00:00:37
Speaker 1: You might be looking for a different flavor.

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Speaker 2: Establish the Run offers that, and they cover topics that I might not get to on this one. You can check out the Established Run Podcast anywhere you get your podcasts. Number two, check out the Late Round Draft Guide on lateround dot com for all your drafting needs while season long drafting needs. It's pack full of strategy information, players to target, players to avoid, rankings and tiers, and more. You can have the Lateround dot com to learn more. And finally, make sure you're following the Late Round Fantasy Football account on Instagram. I'm gonna be posting tons of statistical nuggets on there each day, so you don't want to miss out you can find the account at Late round FF. Okay, it's mailbag time, the first one this week. It's a long one, but I think it's worth getting into. It's an email that says JJ. One theme that you've echoed several times over the years is how you want players that will be peaking in the second half of the season in the fantasy playoffs, even in reference to some of your drafting strategies such as targeting rookie wide receivers and your commentary in the last mail bag about Breise Hall's value. While I want a team that's on fire in the fantasy playoffs, I've got to get there first, and the team that I get there with is likely to be at least somewhat different from the team that I drafted. But my odds of getting there increased dramatically with a hot start. According to Yahoo's Matt Harmon, last season on Yahoo, eighty seven percent of teams that started five to oh made their Fantasy playoffs. Among four and one starters, seventy two percent of teams made the dance. Once you got to three and two, it could go either way. Fifty percent of teams made the playoffs. Anything below five hundred and the odds were stacked against you. That's no accident. You have a lot more leverage when you start off five and oh or four and one to target players in trade that are likely to pick up steam. You can use your end of bench waiver wire pickups on players who will peak later in the season. If you start hot, and if you lose a week or two in the process, you're still in good shape. With that in mind, I'd much rather have Dalvin Cook as my second or third running back at his seventh round cost and pound some later round running back sleepers with respect to the other players going around him that have Breise Hall at a fourth round EIGHTYP cost compared to some of the wide receivers going around him. As you said in regards to the Jets, win Now, thinking and signing Cook, Cook will likely allow them to ease Haul back in, and even when they do, Cook will likely retain flex value as the one be in that offense and allow them not to put too much wear and tear on Haul. If I get six to seven weeks of Cook as the lead back as a back end RB one and then as an RB three rest of season at his cost, this allows me to get off to a hot start while I wait for other investments to pay off, And that seems highly desirable to me given all the aforementioned perks that come with a hot start. The bigger question I'm asking is less about Cook versus Hall and more about your approach to the game. Am I misrepresenting your reasoning and why you're interested in players with a late season potential? What are your thoughts on drafting to try to win September and then figure it out in season. Keep up the great work, Greg, So, Greg, congratulations on having the longest mail back question of all time. You currently hold first place there. But in all seriousness, there's a lot to unpack here. I thought it was a good question. I thought there was good explanation within the question, and that's why I wanted to get to it. So first off, I think it's important to note that when I reference late season production, I don't focus solely on late season production. I did an episode on early season schedule analysis for a reason. I want the players that I'm drafting to appreciate in value immediately. I don't want to wait for them to get there with the off chance they don't get there, and Honestly, this is part of the reason that I don't believe in handcuffing. With handcuffing running backs, you're almost making the assumption that your running back will get injured early in the season, but the average injury happens about halfway through the season. That's the average, meaning you're holding onto that handcuff for weeks and weeks instead of using your bench spot on an asset that could appreciate right away. That's one of the reasons why handcuffing is not the best strategy in the world unless you're in a deeper format. So don't mistake my talking about rookies getting better in the second half of the season as me saying to only focus on the second half of the season. The point is that rookies outplay their draft cost more consistently than many other types of players across the entire season. It's an added bonus that they then do better down the stretch. Remember you're not drafting rookie wide receivers in the first round of your draft. That waiting game, waiting for them to break out, that's baked into their ADP and you can say that you'll trade for some of those guys halfway through the year.

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Speaker 1: That's often easier said than done, right, you don't.

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Speaker 2: Think the person who drafted Bressee Hall understands that Hall's probably going to be better during the second half of the season. You likely can't just trade for bres Hall in week seven or week eight. And let's talk about those comments about Dalvin Coke versus Breese Hall, because I think those were interesting too. I think there may be too much black and white thinking with how that backfield is going to be split. If I were guaranteed Dalvin Cook would be a low end RB one for the first seven weeks of the season, then yeah, I draft him higher too. He'd be a target. But just because they may use Cook more during the front half of the season doesn't mean that Breise Hall will be irrelevant during that stretch. He can still be usable, and when he's usable, that means that you can still win your fantasy contests. Basically, I wouldn't go into your draft this year feeling that confident as confident as you were in this question about that backfield and how it's going to be split.

00:06:24
Speaker 1: Now.

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Speaker 2: I also think the numbers that you're referencing here with Matt harmon, which are great numbers, by the way, they're very interesting, but I think they might be misinterpreted here just a little bit. I don't think it's very surprising that a five to zero team or a four to one team have better odds than a two to three team to make the playoffs. But you're making the assumption that those teams are structured in a way where they're focused on winning early, when they're likely just good teams where they have players who can be effective not just in the front half of the season, but the back half too. They have league winning players. One of the main reasons I want to talk about this question on today's show is that I absolutely don't want listeners to walk away from any episode of the Late Round podcast with black and white thinking, and I think that's what's going on here. If I say that late season production is good, that doesn't mean that I'm only focused on late season production. If I say that Breize Hall is likely going to get more work as the season goes on, it doesn't mean that he's gonna get zero work and be unusable to start the season. If I say draft running backs and ambiguous backfields, it doesn't mean that you should only draft running backs and ambiguous backfields. But again, going back to this question, your fantasy football playoff weeks, they objectively matter more. You don't need to specifically build for those weeks when you draft. That's not what I'm saying, but you should have in the back of your mind an understanding of the type of players who can peak at that time of year. That doesn't mean that you ignore getting there or you're not focused on winning now. It's just about having a well rounded view of the game instead of just caring about what happens during the first five or six weeks of the year. At the end of the day, you should strive to do both things. This that's question is from Twitter, and it's something that I reference on The Late Round Perspective's episode two. But it says, I know you're high on Christian Watson due to his rookie efficiency and yards per route run, et cetera. Are you at all concerned that it was due to high variants, big plays on a lower number of targets and then it won't be as sustainable with Jordan Love instead of Aaron Rodgers.

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Speaker 1: I think all of that is completely valid.

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Speaker 2: Yes, I've been on record saying that Watson's a high risk, high reward pick. He has a lot of positives to his profile, like his yards per route run rate. During his rookie season it was elite, but his target share per game rate was sixteen point six percent Across the entire season. He had a good twenty three to twenty four percent target shair per game rate down the stretch, but that was also a little bit skewed by a huge forty two percent performance. He was typically in like the twenty percent range. What I'm getting at is, what if he doesn't actually see an uptick and target share and what a Jordan Love is not very good? Or what if Love just doesn't favor Christian Watson. Here's my rebuttal to that and why I think Watson's a great pick at ADP, And this has to do with game theory and how I approach fantasy football specifically here in twenty twenty three. Now, I think that we'd all agree that Christian Watson has the ceiling right. This is straight from the Late Round Draft Guide. It says Watson's coming off a season of elite efficiency that matters in the middle rounds. Last season, Watson became just the seventh rookie wide receiver to capture a two point twenty five yards per route run rate or better since twenty eleven. The other six were Odell Beckham, Jamar Chase, Justin Jefferson, AJ Brown, Tyreek Hill, and Chris Olave. All of those players, aside from a Lave who hasn't played his second season yet, ended up scoring fifteen point nine or more PPERO points per game in year two. The upside is evident, but the downside is too. I get that, But a huge reason I'm totally fine with chasing the upside is because number one, upside matters more than downside in fantasy football. You're trying to get first place, not fourth place, but number two. If you look at how most fantasy drafts have gone down historically, and also how drafts are formed this season, you have easy fallback plans if you're doing what I talk about in my draft guid and if you're generally avoiding the running back dead zone, which exists in every draft. It's the opportunity cost that shifts. But if you're getting wide receivers in that fifth or sixth round range, you've got backup. You're getting very good wide receivers to pair with Christian Watson to have on your roster. If Watson does indeed bust, We've got to think beyond just one singular player when we're making our draft selections. It's about balance and making sure that you've got the right risk reward on your team. If you get a player like Watson, feel free to pair him with Tyler Lockett in the next round or the round after that, or if you're concerned about his floor, get someone like Brandon Cooks.

00:11:01
Speaker 1: Now.

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Speaker 2: I don't think that you absolutely need to do that. I'm just saying if you're ever worried about a player's floor, there are avenues to make up for that elsewhere. When you're looking at a player's range of outcomes, it's important to remember that there are other players on your roster to help out when things go south. And the round four to round seven wide receivers all project well before a pretty big drop off occurs at the position. Loading up on them means that you're increasing your chances of hitting just with sheer numbers. If you get wide receivers in round four, five, six, and seven, you're increasing your chances of hitting by getting so many wide receivers. You're getting that cushion for when a player inevitably busts. I'm in on Christian Watson because I know that he has a crazy ceiling, but I also can get that protection. This est question is from at M Moore one two one six. It says, if the Lions couldn't unlock TJ. Howkinson, why should we care about Sam Laporta. Well, first off, I think it's important to at least note that Minnesota didn't exactly unlock TJ.

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Speaker 1: Howkinson either. Yeah, they fed him more.

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Speaker 2: He saw a higher targets here in Minnesota than he did in Detroit, and that could be all that you mean here. But Hawkinson had very similar yards per route, run numbers and efficiency marks in Minnesota versus Detroit. He didn't get better as a player. He had arguably worse numbers in Minnesota. But we can't ignore costs here either, at least from a redraft perspective, Laporta right now is cheap in drafts because people want to fade rookie tight ends, and I understand that given history. Laporta, though, was a very good prospect and he still has the potential to just be a better player than Hawkinson. I'm not banking on that, but it's definitely in his range of outcomes. But the bottom line is the cost side to this question. How much it costs to acquire these players. That matters. That's why we can still care about Sam Laporta despite Detroit never unlocking TJ.

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Speaker 1: Hockinson. He might not be better than TJ.

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Speaker 2: Howkinson was last year, even as a Lion, but he's not being drafted where TJ. Howkinson was being drafted, and there's still just this chance that Sam laport as special.

00:13:07
Speaker 1: I know that my tight end model really really likes him as a prospect.

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Speaker 2: This es question is from at Jacob deal Film. It says, I know strategy is moving away from a true late round quarterback, but who would be your guys this year for late round breakouts. I'd like to think that at least one of either how Picket or Love will exceed ADP this season, but could there be another? So I've got a handful of my draft guide, but I'll focus on two of the ones that you mentioned in this question who I like a whole lot, and that's Sam Hallan Kenny Pickett. I don't know if we're gonna see either of these guys be true plug and play starters in single quarterback leagues. But I do think that they're set up reasonably well. They've both got good weapons. How has the coordinator Picket doesn't, but the weapons side is there, and both quarterbacks have mobility. Pickett average almost twenty rushing yards per game last year, and he added three point two Fantasy points per game with his legs. That's a pretty good number. Sam Hown his lone start last year, ended up running five times for thirty five yards in the score, and he rushed for over eight hundred yards during his final collegiate season at UNC. I think both Pittsburgh and Washington's offenses, like I talked about on Late Round Perspectives yesterday, I think that they could surprise this year. Now, clearly we're not expecting them to be amazing given the ADPs of the players on those teams, but situationally it's there for Picket and how to be usable this year. This tess question is from at Jesse Underscore Batch. Again, this is another question that we sort of talked about on Late Round Perspectives, but it says, do you ever make a gut decision over analytics? You seem like a smart guy with a thorough process. But do you ever find yourself slightly ignoring the data for a gut feeling. Yeah, I do it all the time now. I talked about this on Late Round Perspectives. But some guys just have bad vibes. Jamison Williams right now has a lot of bad vibes. It just seems it's like everything's getting worse with him, and it makes me not want to have him on my fantasy teams. I don't think it's irrational to think that way. Sometimes we're analyzing human beings here, what happens between the ears, off the field, all that stuff. It matters, and it's not easy to quantify all the time. It's not easy to put that kind of thing into some algorithm. Now, don't get me wrong. I try to have some semblance of an analytical backing with everything that I do and say as an analyst. I don't just sit here and say, yeah, this guy feels like he won't be very good. But I think when we talk about our gut, our gut's really just our brain processing information subconsciously, we think it's coming out of nowhere that we feel some sort of way almost on a whim. But that gut feeling is your brain taking hundreds of inputs and telling you what it thinks is the logical truth. So to me, the two kind of go hand in hand because your gut can also be analytical without you even realizing it. Now, I'm not some PhD who studied the brain and how our subconscious works, but that's truly how I feel when people talk about making gut decisions. They're more logical than you think. The last question this week is from Patreon. It's from Rob. It says, Hey, JJ, huge fan. Your podcasts are one of the highlights of my week. Thank you any reason why they are relatively short. Some are only fifteen minutes. I love listening to them and always wish they were longer. Thanks So A lot of you have probably noticed through the years that on this show I don't trip over words. There aren't any ums, and that's because I heavily edit the Late Round podcast.

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Speaker 1: Now.

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Speaker 2: Some parts of the show are being read so that I don't miss important information. Other parts of the show, I'm saying things over and over in order to make the delivery sound right, to get as much information into your ears and the shortest amount of time possible. The truth is I can sit and do a longer show. I just did that yesterday with the Late Round Perspectives episode. But those longer shows, when they're not edited so tightly, they give you just as much information as this show, and this one's only fifteen to twenty minutes long. I know that because of the feedback that I get. I met a lot of awesome people at the Fantasy Football Xpo in Canton just a couple.

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Speaker 1: Of weekends ago.

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Speaker 2: Some people were analysts who put out content like I do, but some were just fans, and the common thing that I heard from them was I love how short and sweet your podcast is. I can get what I need, and I can get what I need quickly. This is all intentional. The vast majority of shows in the fantasy football space are an hour long, some are longer. I have a show that's part of that group living the stream. But part of the way that I was able to differentiate this show, the Late Round podcast, was by making it shorter to get people what they need without fluff. Because not everyone has the ability to listen to multiple hour long episodes per week. The truth is guys doing episodes on the Late Round podcast more difficult than doing a show that's not tightly edited, that's got a co host that has ums throughout. That type of show is way easier to prepare for and produce because I don't have to worry about getting the right information to you with this show. I've got to narrow down the important stuff and get the fluff out of here. I can't just rant and go on and on about a topic, and I hope that Late Round perspectives gives all of us that outlet. I hope it allows me to do more of that ranting, and I hope those of you who want that kind of show, I hope you really really enjoy it. But the Late Round podcast is fifteen to twenty minutes long because it's something that the Fantasy Football space didn't have when I launched the podcast, and honestly, I think it's one of the big reasons that this podcast has found some success.

00:18:47
Speaker 1: So this type of.

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Speaker 2: Format is never gonna change, even if it's a more difficult show for me to produce each week. That's it for today's show, though, thanks to all of you for listening. If you get subscribed to the Late Round Fantasy Football podcast. Make sure you are by searching for it pretty much anywhere podcast can be found. Don't forget to follow me on Twitter at Late Round QB, and remember follow the Late Round Fantasy Football Instagram at Late Round FF. Thanks for listening everyone, I hope you enjoyed Late Round perspectives that's gonna drop every single week.

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Speaker 1: Enjoy your weekend. I'll talk to you next week.