1045: Week 9 Sleepers

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Speaker 1: This is the Labor Podcast with your host JJ Zacheratha j J zacher reefon what's up everyone. It's JJ zachar Esen in this episode ten forty five of the Late Round Fantasy football podcast sponsored by DraftKings. Thanks for tuning in. There's no better way to get closer to the action than with DraftKings Daily Fantasy, the ultimate destination for football fans. New customers can play free for their share of millions and prizes with their first to positive five dollars or more. Download the DraftKings Daily Fantasy app and enter promo code Late Round to play free for your share of millions. The crown is yours. Gambling problem called one hundred Gambler. New York called eight seven seven eight hope n Why in Connecticut call eighty eight seven eight nine seven seven seventy seven eighteen plus most states. Eligibiliastutions apply ends December thirty first See terms at DraftKings dot com slash Promotions. I was pretty pleased with the results of last week's Sleeper Show, but there were definitely some misses. Matthew Golden was pretty big disappointment. Kyle Manungey and Berchard Smith. They both didn't get it done. Sterling Shepherd barely did anything, and the defensive streamers the Falcons and the Bengals were really bad. Fortunately, I talked about the Buffalo defense. They came through and there were strong performances from Jackson Dart, RJ. Harvey who had three touchdowns, Woody Marx, Kamani Vaidel, Kyle Pitts, Joe Flacco, Tajy Spears, Troy Freaking Franklin, Aronde, Gaston, Isaiah Davis, Jalen Nolan, even Jerry McNichols. So there were definitely some misses, but it was a strong week overall. The result of the last few weeks have been great. I'm hoping to keep it rolling here into Week nine. We'll kick things off with a tier of players rostered in fifty to eighty percent of Yahoo leagues, and we'll go to a guy who no one usually feels great about, but he is under that eighty percent mark, and it's Kyler Murray, assuming he plays. Of course, the Cardinals get the Cowboys this week. That game has a fifty three and a half point total, currently the highest on this week slate, and six of the Cowboys eight games have gone over this year, with both of those games being on the road and outdoors. Dallas is the best opponent for quarterbacks by justin points allowed. They give up six point seven points above their opponent's average points per game. So if that hits for Kyler this week, we're looking at well over twenty standard Fantasy points. It's a good spot for any quarterback to be in. I'm gonna go back to Jackson Dart this week too, because, like I've been saying, I'm gonna use him until he tells us not to, until he gives us a reason to not throw him in our lineup. The Giants get the forty nine ers this week, which is a pretty average matchup on paper, but they've also allowed a QB one performance in three of their last four, including one to C. J. Stroud. This past week, dartis scored nineteen plus points, and four of his five starts, he's yet the fall below fifteen standard Fantasy points in a game. He's a solid play in a game where the Giants have a reasonable twenty three point implied team total. Joe Flacco has a shoulder injury, but if he goes this week, he should be okay to score some fantasy points. The Bengals are at home, they get the Bears that games a total over fifty points. Chicago's defense is beatable too. According to PFF data, they had the second lowest pressure rate in football, and according to my data, they're the fourth best matchup by justin points allowed to quarterbacks. That points to Flacco being a pretty great play if he is healthy. Moving on to running back, there are many great matchups in this tier, but I do want to call out Aaron Jones. Detroit's a bottom five opponent for running backs by justin fantasy points allowed, but they've allowed the tenth highest adjusted target chair to the position, and Jones just last week in his return had a fifty percent roulet participation rate. Jordan Mason was at twenty two percent. That led to a thirteen percent target chair for Aaron Jones. With Minnesota having the very real potential for a negative game script as eight and a half point underdogs, Jones has the opportunity to see the field more this week. It profiles is more of a Jones game than a Jordan Mason game. If this game goes as we're projecting it to go, and if that's the case, there's some PPR usability for Aaron Jones at wide receiver in this tier. I can't believe this, but Travis Hunter is roster in seventy nine percent of Yahoo leagues. Not only is there a chance for him to just see more looks out of the buy in this offense for him to be featured more, but as we know, he's seen really strong rout participation rates over his last couple of games. Now he gets a Vegas team that ranks the eighth best matchup by justin Fantasy points allowed to wide receivers. He's definitely something that you can play this week. Jwan Jennings in the forty nine Ers get the Giants. I'm currently assuming that Mac Jones is starting, but Jennings could still be in play. The Giants are bottom ten team at defending wide receivers by justin points allowed, and Jennings has seen respectable target shares of thirty percent and twenty three percent over his last two games. He hasn't found the end zone since Week two and he's only found the end zone once this year, but the usage it's starting to get there for him. That's why he works this week. I'm unsurprised going to go back to Wandell Robinson this week, but this week's matchup is better than last week's. Robinson saw seventy five percent slot rate last week with Darius Slayton back in the lineup. That marks the highest rate that he's seen in the slot since Week three. The Giants get the forty nine Ers. San Francisco ranks third and adjusted fantasy points allowed to the slot and their third and adjusted wide receiver target shair allowed to the slot. Basically, it's a great slot matchup, and with Robinson seeing consistently good target shares, he's a great play. Another slot matchup to exploit it could be Cooper Cup against the Commanders. Now, this is obviously far riskier than the other wide receivers in this tier, but he's hid about a fifty percent slot rate in all but one game this year. And Washington's another team that hasn't been great at stopping slot receivers on the season. Against slot wideouts, they've allowed the fourth most fantasy points and the second highest target share, and that's adjusted for strength of opponent. Seattle has a good twenty four and a half point total in this matchup, so Cup's kind of sneaky out of this by Let's move on to tight end now, and let's start with Kyle Pitts, who's just kind of undervalued in fantasy football. The Falcons face the Patriots this week. New England's allowed the tenth most adjusted fantasy points of tight ends this year. Pitts has seen target shairs of twenty eight percent and thirty percent over his last two games, So even if Drake London's back, I think pitch should be fine. I'm gonna shout out both Ravens tight ends too. I talked about them last week, but with Lamar Jackson out, they obviously lost their sleeper appeal. But Jackson's back on Thursday night, and I think Andrews and also Isaiah Likely are reasonable enough plays. Miami ranks third and adjusted target share allowed to tight ends this year, They're thirteenth and adjusted fantasy points allowed. Andrews is probably the safer bet, but don't forget Isaiah likely has run more routes than Mark Andrews in back to back games, so I would call him out as a deep sleeper. But stead I'm talking about this now, I'll just shout him out here. Isaiah likely is a deep play. The next one's pretty obvious, Aronde Gadston. He's a guy who're gonna hopefully be playing most weeks a tight end. The Chargers get to Titans team that they may not have a super pass every script against, and Tennessee's a bottom ten matchup for tight ends. But Gatson's been a top three tight end in back to back weeks, and he had a season high ninety one percent route share in Week eight. Even in these not so desirable matchups, he's something that you probably don't want to leave on your bench. And then finally there's Zach Ertz. Even with Terry McLaurin back last week and he's out this week, but even with McLaurin back for most of that game, ert saw a twenty percent target share. He's in a twenty percent share in three straight games, and now he gets a Seahawks defense that's allowed the fourth most adjusted fantasy points of tight ends this year, So he's not a bad option this That group of players consist of guys rostern In twenty to fifty percent of Yahoo leagues will start a quarterback and will go with Trevor Lawrence. The Raiders actually aren't the best matchup in the world by justin Fantasy points allowed to quarterbacks a little bit below average, but they don't get to the quarterback very well at all, and they've actually been below average and adjusted passing yards allowed per game. The Jacks have almost a twenty four point implied team total, so Trevor Lawrence makes sense as a streamer. Aaron Rodgers does too, and the case for Rodgers is a little bit easier to make. The Steelers are hosting the Colts. They actually have almost a twenty four point implied team total. Indianapolis is also seventh worst and adjusted fantasy points allowed to quarterbacks. They're allowing forty seven passing yards per game over expected. That's the third highest mark in the league, behind only Pittsburgh in Dallas. Pittsburgh's gonna have to keep pace with this offense, and it makes sense that indis given up a top five adjusted pass rate this year, so I expect Rogers to give us a usable performance. There's also Sam Darnold. The Seahawks get the Commanders this week, and on paper it's a pretty good matchup. We do see teams usually run the ball a little bit more when they face Washington versus their normal pass rate, but the Commanders have given up the sixth most adjusted points of quarterbacks this year. They've allowed sixteen passing yards per game over expected with a twenty four and a half point total. Darnold's a decent play. Moving on to running back, we got the news about Isaiah Pichecko's injury after fifteen Transactions was released, so I didn't get to talk about Kareem Hunt. But yeah, with Pacheck go out this week, I expect Hunt to see most of the work in that backfield. Now, the Chiefs didn't have Burshard Smith last year, so take all this with a grain of salt. But after Pacheco's injury in Week two and before he came back in Week thirteen last season, Hunt was averaging almost fifteen PPR points per game. His running back rush yare per game rate was eighty four percent. That's ridiculously good. Now, Brishard Smith, he's also in play as a deeper sleeper. He would make it in the next tier. But since we're talking about that situation right now, I'll just shout him out. I'd anticipate a bump for Smith into that like thirty percent running back rush share range and then there's a chance for some manufactured touches through the air. But against Buffalo, a team align the six most adjusted fantasy points per game to running backs, I'd have Hunt well ahead of Smith. Hunts a legit RB two option this week, whereas Smith, he's more of a cross your fingers flex type. Taj Spears is another running back that you can look at. Spears has out snapped Tony Pollard in two of their last three games. That's largely because he's the one that's seeing long down in distance in two minute snaps. He's played one hundred percent of the team's two minute snaps over the last two weeks, according to Fantasy Life data. And this week the Titans get the Chargers. I don't think any of us anticipate that game being close, though you never know. There's no guarantee in the NFL. But if things don't go Tennessee's way, then Spears is bound to be on the field more. He said target chairs of fourteen percent, thirteen percent, and eight percent over his last three and LA is a top half team and adjusted target chair allowed to running backs. So in PPR formats, Spears is playable. Who knows what's going to go on in that Cardinals backfield. All I know is that the last time we saw them, which was more in a neutral game script, Bam Knight had a sixty four percent running back rush are, a twelve percent target share, and a thirty percent route participation rate. This week they get one of the best matchups imaginable against Dallas. Now I do worry about what would happen if Arizona hits a serious negative game script in this game. So I don't think Knight is guaranteed to smash, but if he sees those exact same peripherals, he's probably gonna be a worthwhile RB two or at least a flex player. But be on the lookout for Amri de Marcado as a deeper play if he comes back and he takes on his receiving role. If that negative game script hits, he could be a PPR option in deep formats. Kyle Manungi had a disappointing outing in Week eight, but he played just three fewer snaps than DeAndre Swift. He's been at a thirty nine percent running back rush are in back to back games, equating to ten rush attempts per game. Now he gets a Cincinnati rush defense that's allowed the most adjusted fantasy points of the position this year. Not a bad deep play. Moving on to wide receiver, I kind of like Alec Pierce this week. The Steelers are terrible against wide receivers. They rank second comfortably second and adjusted points allowed to the position, and they're not just getting beaten the slot like they have historically. It's all wide receivers, and Alec Pierce is a big play guy Pittsburgh. They rank fifth and deep ball completion rate allowed according to PFF, though they haven't faced many deep balls in general. But the Steelers also have given up sixty eight passing yards over expected this year. That's the most in the league. The Colts passing attack has a chance to cook this weekend, and Pierce the seen target shairs of thirty one percent and eighteen percent over his last two That's why I like him this week. Trey Tucker is the other wide receiver to call out in this tier. The Raiders face the Jags, and Jacksonville's been one of the friendlier teams for perimeter wide receivers this season. They've actually allowed the fewest adjusted fantasy points to the slot, but they're the fifteenth, best matchup by justin points allowed to wide outs. In general, Tucker us a twenty one percent target chair per game rate on the season and he mostly plays an outside role. There's some risk because Brock Bowers and Jacoby Myers could potentially be back, but Tucker's a logical deep play at tight end in this tier. THEO Johnson has seen back to back games with a ninety seven percent route participation rate. Since Malik Neighbors went down, THEO Johnson has a twenty percent target share in that offense. The Giants get the forty nine ers this week and it's an average to above average matchup. They're average and adjusted points allowed, but they're above average and adjusted target shair allowed to tight ends. The usage is there for THEO Johnson to be a streamer and then as long as Cole Comet is out, Colston Loveland should be on your radar. Last week's matchup was fine, but this one against the Bengals it's great. Since ninety has allowed the most adjusted points to tight ends this year, they've all had the highest adjusted target shair to the position as well. Loveland saw seventy eight percent route share last week. If he gets at again in Week nine, more production should follow. Moving on to our final tier of players, we'll be looking at guys roster and fewer than twenty percent of Yahoo leagues. Assuming Brock Purty is out. Mac Jones is the only quarterback in this group. That's because the forty nine ers have a solid twenty five and a half point implied team total. The Giants are a top half opponent for quarterbacks by justin fantasy points allowed. When teams face New York, they not only just run more plays per game over their season long average in general, but we tend to see a good bump and pass rate of like three to four percentage points. It's an above average to good matchup for mac Jones that makes him a deep sleeper. I mentioned Brishard Smith earlier. Running backs will shift to another running back in this tier, and that's Blake Korum. La is a huge favorite against New Orleans this week. We could see a run heavy approach since the Saints are generally trailing and their opponents are leading. They've given up thirteen rushing yards to running backs over expected this year per game and thirty three yards below expected through the air. The last time we saw Korum In the Rams, Korm was getting some garbage time. He's now hit a forty percent running back rush share better in two of his last four games, so he does make sense as a deep sleeper. Samaj p Ryan has been getting more work in this Bengals offense. Over the last four games, He's seen no less than thirty three percent of the team's running back rushes. He maxed out last week at a forty three percent share. He's not seeing a ton of work through the air, but his role participation rates have hovered the forty percent range at times. The Bengals are going to be tough to trust if Joe Flacco sits, but if he's in, they get a Bears defense that's the seventh best matchup for running backs by justin fantasy points allowed. Chase Brown is obviously the better play, but in deep leagues, pe Ryan makes sense as a desperation running back now, similar to the logic with Blake Korum. Emmanuel Wilson he could get some run against the Panthers this week. Green Bay is a thirteen and a half point home favorite. Over his last two games, Wilson's seen running back rush shares of thirty two percent and forty six percent. He had a season high forty one percent snapshare last week against Pittsburgh. If this game goes as planned, then Wilson might find himself with eight to twelve touches and that might be usable. I'm gonna go back to Jeremy McNichols two. He's been pretty good this year. He's firmly playing that pass catching role for the Commander's backfield. He's now hit a seventeen percent and twenty percent target share and two of his last three. Washington has a chance to trail against Seattle this week, which would result in more McNichols, But the Seahawks they're also sixth and adjusted target share allowed to running backs. You can't play McNichols confidently in the non PPR format, but in a PPR one he should give you something. At wide receiver, Malik Washington has seen target shares of twenty seven percent and nineteen percent over his last two games, his two highest target shares of the season. Those happened to coincide with Darren Waller getting hurt. Waller was hurt in Week seven against the Browns. Now the Dolphins get the Ravens, a team that struggled defensively this year, and one that's got Lamar Jackson that's going to force a pass heavy game plan for Miami. Washington should at least get some volume in this matchup on Thursday Night, and that's all we can ask for in this tier. Another deep wide receiver play to consider, and this is very deep. It's Michael Wilson. He's only reached a fifteen percent target share once this year, but he's out there at least getting some cardio for Arizona. He has an eighty two percent route participation rate on the season. The Cardinals get Dallas. The Cowboys are the top matchup for wide receivers by justin fantasy points allowed. I can't imagine anyone really needs to use Michael Wilson, but I figured i'd shout him out. And then lastly, there's Parker Washington. Brian Thomas and Diami Brown were in non contact jerseys at practice on Wednesday. Washington's coming off a game where he saw season high eighty nine percent route share. His twenty three percent target share was the second highest of his season. In Week seven, the Jags get the Raiders. It's a good matchup and it's in a game where the Jags have a near twenty four point implied team total, so keep an eye on Washington. As for our defensive streamers, the Rams are the obvious play, but they're now rostered in way too many leagues to call out on a sleeper show. But Baltimore against Miami, Jacksonville against Vegas, and potentially Chicago against Cincinnati could work this week. I don't love the options, but that's what we're working with. I'd probably only go Chicago if Joe Flacco's out, and the other two are pretty volatile. Like I said, tough week for streaming defenses. That's it for today's show, though, thanks to all of you for listening. If you get subscribed to the Late Round Fantasy Football podcast, make sure you are but starting for it pretty much anywhere. Podcast can be found to follow me on Twitter and on Blue Sky at Late Round QB. Thanks for listening everyone. I'll be back in your ears tomorrow with the weekly Mailbag show.