417: Week 3 Matchups

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Speaker 1: This is the Lady Podcast with your host JJ zacher Retha j J.

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Speaker 2: Zacher reson What's up Everyone?

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Speaker 1: It's JJ Zachares and the editor in chief at Fandle and at number fire dot com. In this episode four hundred and seventeen of the Late Round podcast and many shows that are part of the FanDuel podcast network. Thank you for tuning in. On last week's matchup show, I nailed Ryan Tannehill, but I missed Gardner Minshew. I guess I got Tyrod Taylor right too because he didn't play. But we don't take cheap victories on this podcast. I'm not giving myself a w for that. That's unfortunate more than anything. I was right to be high on David Montgomery though, but was wrong to assume the Buccaneers wouldn't change their backfield up in a major way. Ronald Jones was fine enough, but he wasn't Leonard Fournette, and then at wide receiver, I got Tyler Boyd Wright. Ceedee Lamb was solid too, but DeVante Parker was better than expected. The Bills actually used Tredevius White on Preston Williams a lot on Sunday. My tight end pick sucked, but the defenses were fine, so overall probably an average to below average week. I have no idea if you guys care about these quick recaps, but I'm gonna keep doing them each week until people tell me to stop and remember the point of this show, to me, at least, is the walk through process. Of course, I want to help you make the right plays, but I think what's most important is to go through some of the things that I look at when dissecting a matchup. That's what the Late Round podcast is all about. The process. Now before getting to players that I like more and less than the consensus, this week, I wanted to let you guys know that we've got another listener League for Week three. It's no secret that Week two was devastating. There were injuries that impacted some of the biggest names in the sport. If your lineups were affected by those injuries, Fandel is giving you another shot to win with the Fandel Podcast Network Listener League. Enter the Rake Free weekly NFL contest made exclusively for youth a listener, and for just five dollars, you can compete for your share of the two thousand dollars prize pool, including two hundred dollars for the first place prize. To enter, visit fando dot com Slash League slash Listener League eligibility restrictions apply. It's always a little nerve wracking talking about Thursday night games. They're Island games, so the pressures on as an analyst, but they also anecdotally can be a little bit wild. This week, I actually like both quarterbacks in that Thursday night game, which is the Jags versus the Dolphins. Some of you might be listening to this after that Thursday night game is played, and as usual I might look dumb. But let's start things off with Gardner Minshew. The Dolphins have now allowed the highest net yards per attempt in the entire league through two weeks, and they've pressured opposing quarterbacks at a below average rate. Minshew does have some touchdown regression coming and that is a concern because his touchdown rate is nine point two percent right now. But it's a good matchup and Minshew's at about two points per game so far this season through his rushing, so he's my top streaming option this week in a game with a reasonably high forty seven and a half point over under. Now with Ryan Fitzpatrick. I think rankers are being less reasonable with him this week than Gardner Minshew. Minshew's at the right ranking over on Fantasy Pros, but Fitzpatrick is in the high twenties rankings wise.

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Speaker 2: But he's not in that bad of a spot. He's faced two good.

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Speaker 1: Secondaries and the Patriots and the Bills to start the year, and he was the QB ten last week.

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Speaker 2: It's not like he's been worthless.

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Speaker 1: Jacksonville is a way worse unit than those two other units that he's already faced. They're eighth worst and pressure rate to start the season, They've only had two sacks, and they've given up the third highest net yards per attempt rate in deeper leagues. Fitzpatrick should be usable. Matthew Stafford's gotten off to a slow start, but he's also been without Kenny Galladay. After leading the NFL in deep ball rate last year, this year, he's more middle of the pack, and there's no doubt that Baby has something to do with that. Well. Galladay is supposed to be back this week, and it's just in time for a high scoring affair against the Cardinals.

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Speaker 2: That game has a fifty four.

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Speaker 1: And a half point over under and even though the Lions are five and a half point underdogs, they still have an implied team total this week of twenty four and a half. Arizona ranks seventh best and fantasy points allowed to the quarterback position to start the year, but they've also faced Jimmy Garoppolo and Dwayne Haskins. Let's not pretend that things have been tough. Stafford has a touchdown rate that's below his career average right now, and I think that he's in a nice.

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Speaker 2: Bounce back spot this week.

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Speaker 1: So if you've got him and you're worried about the waiver wire the quarterbacks on your waiver wire, he's fine to play this week. You're not benching Deshaun Watson more than likely this week. But I've got to bring him up on today's show because I am very scared about the obvious tough matchup that he gets this week when he faces Pittsburgh. No team has pressured quarterbacks at a higher rate than the Steelers to start the year, and no team has been worse at protecting their quarterback than Texans. Watson's been sacked eight times this year, and Pittsburgh's gotten a pressure on over forty four percent of their opponent's dropbacks. So yes, I'm worried. I think you can still start Watson, and you should start Watson as a low end QB one, but at least set lower expectations. Now, I don't really have many disagreements with the quarterback rankings this week. I'm a little nervous about Baker Mayfield against the Washington front, but I think that he is ranked properly. Maybe Big Ben's a little bit high, but I understand it at least, so I'm not gonna just sit here and say, don't play this guy versus how the consensus is ranking this week. Just to say it, there are just a lot of mediocre quarterback matchups this week overall, so no one is probably benching Miles Sanders in Week three. But I've seen a lot of negativity with him in my mentions over the last handful of days, and I saw that he's currently being ranked below players like Joe Mixon in PPR formats, and I don't get it.

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Speaker 2: I don't get it at all.

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Speaker 1: In his debut last Week's had eighty three percent of the team's running back rushes in a seventeen percent target share, and now he gets a Bengals defense where not only are the Eagles favorites and they could see a positive game script, but the Bengals ranked twenty fourth in success rate allowed this year. According to Number Fivere's expected points model, They've given up the most running back rushing yards in the league. Miles Sanders should be a top five option this week, and if people are this low on him, I'd try sending out some offers because he's one of the few running backs in the league who could have a bell cow workload this year. Now, digging deeper, you might be going back and forth on whether you should start Joshua Kelly, and I'm here to tell you that it would be wise to start josh Kelly. Like I said on yesterday's ten Trends episode, Kelly saw a nice jump and running back rush share from week one to week two, going from about a thirty six percent share to a fifty nine percent one last week. And he's run as the goal line back. He has six carries from within the opponent's ten yard line, and Austin Neckler has won. Kelly has seen all four running back rushes from within the five and now he gets Carolina. The Panthers were torched last week by the Bucks on the ground and Josh Jacobs had a big day against him in Week one. It's the ideal matchup for Josh Kelly and I think that he's a strong lower end RB two option this week. The Ravens backfield has been a disaster to start the year now that they failed to score Fantasy points, though as a team they have the eighth most points in the league on the season. Mark Ingram seen the most work in that backfield with a forty four percent running back rush share. He's probably the most reliable for this matchup against the Chiefs, but I do think JK Dobbins works as a desperation flex type play because this game should be high scoring and the Chiefs have struggled against the run dating back to last year. They've allowed the fifth most rushing yards to the position this year and they ranking the bottom ten and success rate allowed. It's the right matchup and maybe the fact that it will likely be a competitive game, maybe that means we'll see a little bit less Gus Edwards and they'll unleash JK Dobbins, But that could just be wishful thinking. Now. As a deeper play, this week, you could look at Miles Gaskin. He's actually been a top thirty PPR running back in each of the first two weeks this year, and he leads the team in running back rush share and running back target share. He's seen almost fifteen percent of the team's targets this year. The concern would be that there may not be as big of a negative game script for Miami in this Thursday night game, which would mean fewer targets and dump offs to Gaskin if Miami isn't trailing by a whole lot. But for what it's worth, guys, Gaskin actually has seen more targets in the first half than the second half this year. I just think he's a little undervalued right now by the consensus given his overall usage. Jordan Howard is the goal line guy. We can't expect a huge day from Gaskin because of that, but he definitely has a higher floor than most realized, I think, and since so many teams are hurting at running back, he's not a bad spot start now. On the flip side, I would not feel confident starting anyone from the New York Giants at the running back position. I'm a believer that Devonte Freeman is going to come in and eventually take on the biggest workload in that offense, but we cannot make any assumptions this week. Wayne Galman will be active. He wasn't active last week and that allowed Dion Lewis to do his thing. That's why Dion Lewis saw the workload that he saw and so with Wayne Galman back, the splits are going to be all over the place. It's impossible to project. And then on top of that, it's not an ideal matchup. So stay away from the Giants running backs this week. I at least wanted to get that out there, and I'd also consider staying away from Nahem Hines. Indianapolis coaches seem to want to get him the ball more than they did last week where he only played nine snaps. But I do think there should be some concern about Hines in a positive game script and considering FanDuel's Sports, because the Colts is double digit favorites this week, the Colts should see that positive game script and that means it's going to be the Jonathan Taylor Show. To me, Hines is one of those players where if he goes off on your bench this week. At least you know he's more reliable than what we saw from him last week against Minnesota.

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Speaker 2: Chances are he won't have.

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Speaker 1: A monster game like he did in Week one, given the way this Colt Jets game is.

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Speaker 2: Likely to go.

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Speaker 1: It's fine if you like Juju Smith Schuster more than Deontay Johnson, but there's a fourteen wide receiver gap in their rankings this week.

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Speaker 2: I don't get it.

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Speaker 1: Johnson has nine more targets than Smith Schuster through two games, and like I said on the ten Trends episode, he's one of two wide receivers with a thirty percent target share or better in his first two games this year. You're not benching either guy in this matchup. The Steelers have a relatively high implied team total, and both Johnson and Juju have favorable cornerback matchups. I'm mostly just pointing out that the gap between the two should not be so large, and I actually prefer Deontay Johnson moving forward. Ceedee Lamb could really smash this week. According to Pro Football Focus, Lamb has played ninety one percent of his snaps from the slot this year. We only have a two game sample size, sure, but no team in football has allowed more targets, yards, and touchdowns the slot players this year than the Seattle Seahawks, and that's who Seedee Lamb is facing. This game between the Cowboys and Seahawks. Is the highest over under on this week's slate, so lots of points are probably gonna be scored. And it's not like Lamb hasn't been involved. He has about an eighteen percent target chair on the year. He's in a very very good spot this week. One player who I think is at least going to beat his wide receiver fifty seven ranking this week is Nikhil Harry. I don't love that Patriots Raiders game from a scoring perspective, and look, Harry hasn't seen very valuable targets so far this year. He's only had ninety nine are yards, which ranks outside the top fifty at wide receiver. But he's also got a twenty nine percent target share in that Patriots offense. It's not a crazy tough matchup for him this week, and even if New England is a little bit run heavy, Harry should still see six or seven targets, so he's got a floor. But given how he's being used, we definitely should question his ceiling until we see more. I just at least expect him to exceed expectation this week. Keelan Cole at the time of this recording, is the wide receiver eighty one over on Fantasy Pros.

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Speaker 2: People are probably.

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Speaker 1: Viewing his two top twenty four performances as fluky because he scored a touchdown in both of those games. But he has a nineteen percent target chair in the Jaguars offense, and he's run the second most routes on that team. It's very clear that right now here in Week three, he's the number two receiver in Jacksonville behind DJ Shark. Now.

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Speaker 2: I already talked about why I'm into Minshew this week, and.

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Speaker 1: While I don't love using Jacksonville wide receivers because of how they're spreading the ball around, Cole is still really undervalued at wide receiver eighty one. He's a dart throw I'm not going to deny that he is a dart throw player this week, but that's way too low for a good matchup and a guy who has seen a nineteen percent target chair. The one player who stood out to me this week on the bad side of things is Anthony Miller.

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Speaker 2: Miller is someone that I just cannot trust right.

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Speaker 1: Now, but where he's being ranked, he could find some of your starting lineups. I know he's in some starting lineups. He's now playing fewer snaps than rookie Darnell Mooney and he's seen a target share under fifteen percent. He had the same number of targets as Mooney this past week. He's trending down, but he's being ranked ahead of players like Nikhil Harry, who I would confidently play ahead of Anthony Miller this week. Despite the matchup for Miller, I just need the peripherals to be better to be confident slotting Miller into my lineup. I love him as a talent. I hope things can click, but it just hasn't so far. Another week, another Logan Thomas recommendation. He's one of three tight ends with Darren Waller and Hunter Henry being the other two, who has seen at least a twenty percent target chhair in each of his first two games. He continues to rank in the top ten and all these peripheral numbers for tight ends. He's in a great situation overall, except for the fact that Dwayne Haskins is throwing him the rock. But I do like the matchup against Cleveland this week. They've seen almost twenty five percent of targets against them go to the tight end position and they just allow a big c j Uzama and Drew sample game this past week, the league average in terms of tight end target share allowed is around nineteen percent. I still think Logan Thomas is a strong play despite last week's disappointing performance. And then I think the two guys that I talked about on my fifteen Transaction show earlier in the week, they're just ranked too low, one of them being Dalton Schultz, the other one being my guy mo Ali Cox.

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Speaker 2: Schultz ran a lot of routes.

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Speaker 1: Against Atlanta last week, only five to ten fewer than the trio of Cowboys wide receivers, and to be honest, I just want pieces of this game.

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Speaker 2: It's projected to be so high scoring.

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Speaker 1: I do worry a little bit that Ceedee Lamb is going to be the one who benefits in the middle of the field in this matchup, not Dalton Schultz. But I do think that Schultz is still viable. He's at least better than where rankers currently have him, which is tight end twenty six in my opinion. And then there's mo Ali Cox. He's coming off that one hundred plus yard game and it was the first one where he saw five or more targets in his career. Now, the Colts have one of the highest implied team totals on this slate, and the Jets are not a scary matchup. We saw that with Jordan Reed last week. So if you need streamers, I think both Moley Cox and Dalton Schulzer in play. Now, speaking of the Colts, they're a strong obvious defense to play this week against the Jets. I just don't want to talk about them because they're just too obvious. I will talk about my fifteen Transactions episode defense, which is Cleveland. Washington, who they're facing, has the third worst sack rate in the league, so they're not doing a great job of protecting Haskins and the Browns have had a well above average pressure rate to start the year. They're pretty strong favorites in this game, and I expect them to be able to get to Haskins a few times to give them a nice floor. And then I also think that you could just start Washington too. No team has more sacks this year than the football team, and we've seen Baker be a player who can be careless and turn the ball over. I think, process wise, though, Cleveland is the better play. You want favorites and you want defenses facing Dwayne Haskins, who's not only worse than Baker, but he has worse weapon. But the Washington front is legit and we can't lose sight of that because they're consistently going to be underdogs.

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Speaker 2: I think Washington works this week.

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Speaker 1: If you're in a pitch, that's gonna do it for today's show, though, Thanks to all of you for listening. If you've got to subscribe to the Late Round podcast, make sure you are by searching for it pretty much anywhere podcasts can be found, and don't forget to follow me on Twitter at Late Round QB. Thanks everyone. One more episode this week, the Mailbag episode, which drops tomorrow. I will talk to you then,