906: 15 Transactions for Week 2

00:00:02
Speaker 1: This is the Late Podcast with your host JJ zacherathas J. J. Zacher reson. What's up everyone, It's JJ Zacharyeson in this episode nine hundred and six of the Late Round Fantasy Football podcast sponsored by Underdog Fantasy. Thanks for tuning in before we getting into transactions this week. Just as a reminder, make sure you're checking out Underdog Fantasy. If you sign up with promo code Late Round, you'll get a free pick plus a first time to posit offer up to one thousand dollars in bonus cash. That's Underdog Fantasy dot Com. Sign up and use promo code Late Round. Get ready to sign up for this week's sleeper show. We're I'll be talking through some more picks, but it's a fifteen transactions day today.

00:00:48
Speaker 2: Let's do it and Isaiah Likely.

00:00:54
Speaker 1: The big question that everyone has right now is whether or not Isaiah Likely is the preferred tight end for the Baltimore Ate Vans. My answer to that is probably not, but I do think that is a real chance to be a weekly starter. Over the first two years of Likely's career, he really only performed when Mark Andrews was sidelined. Even when Andrews was out. Last year, Likely's target share per game rate was only fourteen and a half percent. His yards per route run last year was one point four to four. That's pretty ordinary. He was targeted on just fourteen percent of his routes in Week one, though his numbers were completely different. He hit a thirty percent target chair and he was targeted on over thirty four percent of his routes run. According to PFF data, that was the result of the Ravens running a lot more twelve personnel last season. Baltimore's twelve personnel rate that's when two tight ends are on the field, their twelve personnel rate was eleven percent. Last week against the Chiefs, it was fifty three percent. Just for some context, last year the Falcons, they were the league leader in twelve personnel usage. Their rate was forty two percent. If that keeps up, then that means that Isaiah Likely is gonna be on the field more. And if he's on the field more, he's gonna run more routes. And if he's running more routes, he's gonna score more points. Here's the thing, though, with the Andrews versus Likely debate, Andrews still finished Week one with more routes run than Isaiah Likely. He was lined up in the slot or on the outside on over seventy eight percent of his routes run for Isaiah Likely, it was fifty one percent. To put that all another way, Andrews was playing more of a pass catching role for Baltimore even though the results said what it said, and that result is not that uncommon for Mark Andrews against the Chiefs. Since Steve Spagnola took over his defensive coordinator for Kansas City, Andrews has faced the Chiefs five times. In those games, here are his yardage totals fifteen, twenty two, fifty seven, fifteen, and now fourteen. According to Nate Yankee of PFF, Andrews was double covered on a higher percentage of his routes in Week one than any of his games played from twenty twenty one to twenty twenty three. It was very clear the Chiefs wanted Mark Andrews to not beat them.

00:03:14
Speaker 2: This really wasn't a normal outcome.

00:03:16
Speaker 1: Based on all of the usage metrics that we care about for tight ends in fantasy football, Mark Andrews should be able to bounce back. But just keep in mind that with more twelve personnel. Legitimately, if they keep this up, there's a chance that we see both Mark Andrews and Isaiah Likely as tight end ones this year. Hold or by Drake London. No one wants to hear this right now. Not a single person listening to this podcast wants to hear me talk favorably about Drake London. Everyone's sick of it. Everyone's sick of him from a fantasy football perspective, because all he's been for the most part is a disappointment. So, like I said in my column this week, I'm gonna say this very very quietly. Now might be time to buy low on Drake London. The Falcons Week one offense looked like it was being led by a thirty six year old quarterback coming off an Achilles injury. Kirk Cousins did not look right against the Steelers. His passes didn't have that much zip. It's not that surprising, but it's also somewhat of a concern. But what's most important with anything week one, in a one week sample, things can just go wrong. Atlanta faced a very good Steelers front. That front pressured Cousins at the sixth highest rate among all teams in Week one that's pre Monday night football. London in particular saw a whole lot of Joey Porter Junior, and Joey Porter Junior is becoming one of the better cornerbacks in football. Like people are looking at the box score and they're saying, oh my gosh, you kidding me, Ray, Ray McLeod, he's the one that's leading the Falcons and receiving, but they don't look at the matchup enough. Literally last week on the Sleeper Show, I talked about how the Steelers are bad against the slot, but they're notoriously terrible at guarding slot wide outs and so now London managers are really really frustrated despite the fact that it was a really tough matchup on paper. So in my opinion, if you can send a low ball offer, now is the time to do that. There's no need to get crazy, crazy aggressive here. I wouldn't do that because there are some worrying signs, Kirk Cousins health being the number one concern, but this is likely not going to be the norm for Drake London and something else to keep in mind as we move forward in this season. And I know this is so so far away, but in the Fantasy Football playoffs, the Falcons get the Raiders, Giants, and Commanders. That's an awesome schedule for a player like London by Bjon Robinson. So while Drake London's kind of more of a hold maybe lean by Bjon Robinson straight up by He only scored sixteen point one PPR points on Sunday, but his peripherals were out of control. He finished the day with an eighty five point seven percent running back rush share, and then through the air he had a twenty one point seven percent target share. Last year, those numbers per game for Bjeon Robinson were forty eight and a half percent and seventeen point five percent all off season. We heard that Bjon Robinson could play a Christian McCaffrey role in this Falcons offense, and that's exactly what we got in Week one. It just came against a really good defense. If that type of workload continues, Robinson is going to destroy Fantasy football this year. At JK Dobbins. Now, I know that JK. Dobbins might not be available in your league, especially if you listen to The Sleeper Show last.

00:06:47
Speaker 2: Week, but he's available in a lot of them.

00:06:50
Speaker 1: He's still out there in over half of Yahoo leagues, so I have to call him out on this show or else people will yell at me. But at the very least, this is a good opportunity to talk about what happened in that Chargers backfield.

00:07:00
Speaker 2: In Week one.

00:07:01
Speaker 1: Dobbin scored twenty two point nine PPR points, but he only had ten rushes in three targets. His one hundred and thirty five rushing yards not going to be sustainable. But a performance like that what we saw out at JK. Dobbins this past week, that could lead to more work on the ground and through the air for Dobbins in that offense, because according to next Gen Stats, Dobbin's success rate on the ground it was fifty percent against the Raiders, Gus Edwards was at eighteen percent. The one concern I do have, obviously is his health. He's coming off this Achilles injury and according to doctor Edwin Poorros, there is concern about Dobbin's sustain explosiveness. That would obviously hinder his ability to score Fantasy points within a committee. Right if he's in this committee, we need him to be efficient in order to score Fantasy points, so that would be a problem.

00:07:51
Speaker 2: But with all that being said, he's definitely a top.

00:07:53
Speaker 1: Ad off the waiver wire this week in leagues where I have him, Because I do have some JK. Dobbins I'm willing to sell, but not with some sort of injury discount. We saw what Dobbins can do in this offense and in week two. This is another reason why I might not want to sell is because week two they get the Panthers. He could have another great game. Sell Stefan Diggs. So the Texans ran seventy six plays against the Colts this week. That was the most of any team heading into Monday Night Football, because I'm recording this before Monday Night Football, so it could be out early in the morning for your Tuesday commute. But no team in football last year ran more than seventy plays per game across the season. The Texans were at seventy six, and all but three of the teams last year were below sixty six plays per game. So the Texans are going to run fewer plays moving forward, and fewer plays means fewer opportunities that leads to fewer fantasy points. Now at the player level, Dix had a nineteen point four percent target share. He caught all six of his targets. He scored two touchdowns. He had a wide receiver one outing, but the Texans did not use Stefan Diggs the same way they use Nico Collins in Tank Dell. Diggs finished the week ranked in the nineties in air yard chair. He ended his game against the Colts with an A DOT of one point five. Nico Collins had an average up the target of fifteen point five. Tank Dell was at fifteen point zero. That's depending on your source. The way a player combats a lower A DOT role is through volume, and the problem for Stefan Diggs is that that volume is gonna be hard to come by because he's competing for looks with Nico Collins and Tank Dell. They're two very capable wide receivers. So if this DIGS usage continues, if he has this low A DOT role, that's gonna be a problem because he's not gonna be bailed out by multi touchdown.

00:09:48
Speaker 2: Games each week.

00:09:51
Speaker 1: Add Jalen McMillan as a lot of you know the ZAP model like Jalen McMillan coming out, and while he only had a ten percent target share in his NFL DA, there was a lot to like.

00:10:02
Speaker 2: He only had one.

00:10:02
Speaker 1: Reception, but it was a good reception, it was thirty two yards and it was a touchdown. He scored ten point two PPR points. But in that game, there was no doubt that McMillan was Tampa Bay's number three receiver. PFF had him with more routes run than Chris Godwin and Mike Evans, and he led all wide receivers on the Buccaneers and snaps. Now, it might be tough to trust McMillan each week, and the Bucks had a really really good matchup against the Commanders in Week one, but he does have some flex appeal and if an injury happens to either Evans or Godwin, then the upside is definitely there. It's hard to find a better wide receiver stash than Jalen McMillan by Courtland Sutton. So I didn't love Courtland Sutton in fantasy drafts this year, mostly because he lacks ceiling. He was someone who could definitely outpace his ADP, but in most leagues, like a ten team league or a twelve team league where you're only starting two wider recis, he probably wasn't going to be an every week starter, and honestly, I kind of still feel the same way after what we saw in Week one, but there's definitely a by low moment here with Courtland Sutton. He saw nearly twenty nine percent of Denver's targets, and he had an air yard share of sixty percent. According to PFF's expected Fantasy points formula, Sutton underperformed by over fifteen PPR points in Week one. Now, admittedly, in Week two, he's got a tough matchup against the Steelers. Maybe you'll want to wait another week and get him even lower, but statistically he's at least someone to target. Ad Ty Chandler. Ty Chandler had a decent finish to his twenty twenty three season. He carved out a role in that Minnesota offense. Now that role then took a hit because Minnesota signed Aaron Jones, but Chandler was still used in Week one against the Giants even with Aaron Jones in that lineup. Chandler finished the day with a thirty five percent running back rush in a thirteen percent target chair. He only ran three fewer routes than Aaron Jones did. Maybe that was simply due to game script but Chandler's still out there in two thirds of Yahoo leagues. He's got some flex appeal, but also has that contingent upside with an Aaron Jones injury by Amari Cooper. So there are a lot more buys than sells this week because NFL offenses in Week one were absolutely horrible. When there's an underperformance, there's a buying opportunity. Now, Deshaun Watson probably not the answer for Cleveland, but the Browns also won't be facing the Cowboys each week. Now you have David and Joku who's a little bit banged up, and Amari Cooper. Despite scoring three point six PPR points against the Cowboys, he had a twenty point nine percent target chair that's totally fine. His expected fantasy points total had him closer to twelve or thirteen PPR points. Again, he had three point six. With David and Joku injured, that could force more looks to the team's wide receivers. But also the Browns get much more much better matchups moving forward. They get the Jags, Giants, Raiders, Commanders, and Eagles over their next five games, so Marii Cooper should see his fantasy value rise during this stretch add Justin Fields. So I didn't get to talk about Justin Fields last week because Russell Wilson's injury happened after the show was published.

00:13:23
Speaker 2: But let me give you some data surrounding Fields. There have been one hundred.

00:13:27
Speaker 1: And seventeen regular season performances since twenty eleven where a quarterback ran the ball more than ten times. About eighty eight percent of those outings resulted in more than fifteen fantasy points scored by the quarterback, and over sixty percent of those quarterbacks they scored at least twenty fantasy points.

00:13:44
Speaker 2: Justin Fields.

00:13:45
Speaker 1: Against the Falcons on Sunday, he had fourteen rush attempts, he only scored eleven point nine points. And you're gonna say that's because Justin Fields is bad. It's really not that simple.

00:13:55
Speaker 2: Though.

00:13:56
Speaker 1: Fields has played in nine games prior to Week one where he ran the ball more than ten times. He was a top eight quarterback scorer in eight of those nine games. He averaged over twenty five points per game in those contests. Now, again, I didn't get to talk about Justin Fields last week, but I do think there's a chance that he's still a starter moving forward, just because his fantasy total wasn't great in week one, doesn't mean that's how it's gonna be moving forward. I think Justin Fields needs to be rostered in almost every league.

00:14:28
Speaker 2: Add Alexander Madison.

00:14:31
Speaker 1: So Antonio Pierce came out on Monday and he said that the Raiders are gonna roll with a hot hand at running back. And this comes after a week one where Zamir White was out snapped by Alexander Madison. Madison had thirty six offensive snaps, Zamir White had twenty three against the Chargers, and Madison played a receiving role. He ran twenty four routes, Zamir White ran ten. Based on that usage alone, Madison would be the preferred running back in that offense. If this were to continue week in and week out, we would prefer Alexander Madison. But a hot hand approach means that things are going to fluctuate. So it's nowhere close to a guarantee. So right now you probably have to hold Zamir White if you still have Zamir White, and you have to add Alexander Madison off the waiver wire, And for deep leagues, don't forget about Dylan Lowby too. Maybe the raiders just get really really frustrated with what they have at running back and they want to give the rookie the ball more buy Keon Coleman. So, speaking of rookies, Keon Coleman, he didn't have the best outing of all Buffalo Bills wide.

00:15:35
Speaker 2: Receivers in Week one. That was Khalil Shakir.

00:15:37
Speaker 1: But Coleman's outing was still really encouraging, especially for his first game in the NFL. He ran a round on ninety percent of Buffalo's dropbacks. That was by far the best number of any wide receiver on that team. Shakiir was second on the team at seventy percent. That led to a twenty one point seven percent target share and a twenty eight percent air yard share. Remember this is game one of Keon Coleman's career. You're in a very good offense with a very good quarterback.

00:16:05
Speaker 2: When you see.

00:16:05
Speaker 1: Encouraging signs like that, you have to pounce. Add DeMarcus Robinson. So, Puka Nakua has a knee injury and he was put on IR on Monday. Based on what Twitter doctors are saying, he's probably not gonna be back until mid season. DeMarcus Robinson is the next man up in that wide receiver rotation because he ran the second most routes for the Rams in Week one. Now, Robinson's had his moments in this offense over the last year. Just last season, in his final six games, he had a target share per game above sixteen percent. He was a top thirty wide receiver in PPR formats in five of those six games. But don't forget about Tyler Johnson either. He might be the better value off the waiver wire this week. Like I like DeMarcus Robinson straight up more, there's no doubt, but Tyler Johnson is more of an afterthought for people. If your league does blind bidding waivers, Johnson just might straight up be the value play. You might be able to get him just for a couple of bucks, whereas DeMarcus Robinson is gonna go for a lot more. And the reason I say that is because no team in the NFL uses more eleven personnel than the Los Angeles Rams. So you're gonna have DeMarcus Robinson, Cooper Cup and Tyler Johnson, who played that role when Pukinakua went down. Those three wide receivers likely as your three wide receivers and eleven personnel. And by the way, for the record, does that model really like Tyler Johnson when he came out? A lot of you probably remember that, So don't forget about Tyler Johnson either. And there's also Colby Parkinson who should get a bump. He was on last week's fifteen Transactions episode. And then you can stash Jordan Whittington too. Whittington had a really strong camp. He was getting a lot of buzz out of La this summer. He's a good yards after the catch kind of player, but he profiles more as a slock guy. But he can make his way onto the field a little bit more now too, So priority DeMarcus Robinson. But understand that you might get a better value out of someone like Tyler Johnson.

00:18:07
Speaker 2: Ad Tank Bigsby.

00:18:09
Speaker 1: So we have a lot of running backs who have some flex appeal in deeper formats but also have injury upside to the right kind of running backs you won on your bench. Maybe it's Justice Hill, he had a twenty percent Week one target share. Maybe it's Bucky Irving who worked pretty well with Rashad White in week one. There are choices out there that you can go and grab. I'm calling out Bigsby this week because his Week one performance really matched the coach speak that we were hearing out of Jacksonville this summer. They've wanted to give Travis Etn some sort of pairing, another reliable body in that backfield. And yeah, Bigsby had a historically bad rookie season, but he looked okay in Week one and he saw as many carries as Etn, and he out rushed Etn. Etn got way more work as a receiver, he ran way more routes. That's gonna be his role. But Bigsby looks like he could be another flex plus player, a guy who might be able to play the flex, but then he obviously has upside if his RB one gets hurt.

00:19:10
Speaker 2: So you can group up Tank.

00:19:12
Speaker 1: Bigsby with guys like Justice Hill and Bucky Irving this week, maybe even Zach Charbonay given Kenneth Walker's health, And that's a little bit up in the air right now. Your choice largely depends on your roster construction. And for the record, I'm not mentioning Jordan Mason because he's rostered in too many Yahoo leagues. He gets priority over all of these guys because it sounds like Christian McCaffrey might miss next week too. Add the Los Angeles Chargers defense. So I mentioned the Chargers on last week's episode. If you hold on to him, you can use him again this week. They're traveling to Charlotte and they get the Panthers. Now, the Chargers were pretty average a generating pressure in Week one according to next Gen Stats, but they rank sixth best in EPA per play allowed while limiting the Raiders to just ten points. Carolina, as we saw in Week one, had arguably the worst offense in the NFL, or at least the worst offensive display.

00:20:07
Speaker 2: This game right now.

00:20:08
Speaker 1: Has a thirty nine and a half point over under and the Panthers are five and a half point home underdogs, so LA makes for a nice streamer. Once again, That's it for today's show, though, thanks to all of you for listening. If you get subscribe to the Late Round Fantasy Football podcast, make sure you are by searching for it pretty much anywhere podcast can be found, and to follow me on Twitter at Late Round QB. Thanks for listening everyone. I'll be back tomorrow with the weekly ten Trends episode.