Instant Reaction: Trump Wins New Hampshire Primary

Welcome back to special coverage show of the New Hampshire 0:00:14.560 --> 0:00:18.120 Republican primary on Bloomberg TV and Radio. The race has 0:00:18.160 --> 0:00:20.639 been called Donald Trump as one. 0:00:20.560 --> 0:00:23.040 And just moments ago we heard from the runner up, 0:00:23.360 --> 0:00:25.919 Nikki Haley, conceding here in the Granite State. 0:00:27.320 --> 0:00:30.479 I want to congratulate Donald Trump on his victory tonight. 0:00:30.800 --> 0:00:33.519 He earned it and I want to acknowledge that. 0:00:34.120 --> 0:00:36.120 And back with this now, our political panel, Rick Davis, 0:00:36.120 --> 0:00:39.239 partner at Stone Court Capital, is here alongside Genie Shanzano, 0:00:39.280 --> 0:00:42.640 political science professor at Iona University. Rick, what are we 0:00:42.680 --> 0:00:44.120 looking at the rest of the night here, because we 0:00:44.159 --> 0:00:46.440 do still have some questions to answer, as we said earlier, 0:00:46.440 --> 0:00:49.559 particularly when it comes to margin. We're just past what 0:00:49.600 --> 0:00:51.199 a third of the way here, Kaylee. As we look 0:00:51.200 --> 0:00:53.040 at the numbers of precincts reporting, there's a lot of 0:00:53.120 --> 0:00:54.120 votes still to come in. 0:00:54.280 --> 0:00:57.240 Yeah, I mean every indication is it may actually exceed 0:00:57.240 --> 0:00:59.520 the Secretary of Stage prediction of three hundred and twenty 0:00:59.520 --> 0:01:04.360 two thousand and voters. So healthy and robust day at 0:01:04.360 --> 0:01:05.880 the polls for New Hampshire voters. 0:01:05.920 --> 0:01:06.560 Well done. 0:01:06.840 --> 0:01:09.240 This is what we come to New Hampshire to do 0:01:09.319 --> 0:01:12.160 is see a real democracy in action, and I think 0:01:12.200 --> 0:01:14.080 that you're going to see more and more votes coming 0:01:14.120 --> 0:01:17.000 from the rural areas. Right now, it's inside a ten 0:01:17.080 --> 0:01:20.360 point range between Donald Trump and Nicky Haley, and I 0:01:20.400 --> 0:01:21.959 think all you're going to do is see more and 0:01:22.000 --> 0:01:25.360 more margin coming in from for Donald Trump voters. You know, 0:01:25.400 --> 0:01:30.560 these are his strongholds, rural voters. And one of the 0:01:30.600 --> 0:01:33.040 things we're seeing, which is a very stark contrast, which 0:01:33.080 --> 0:01:35.720 we've seen in Iowa, we've seen in the polling nationally, 0:01:36.160 --> 0:01:39.160 is Donald Trump is doing exceptionally well with voters who 0:01:39.240 --> 0:01:42.520 don't have a college education. But Nicky Haley has really 0:01:42.600 --> 0:01:47.040 racked up margins with voters who do have a college education. Dartmouth, 0:01:47.040 --> 0:01:51.000 that area around Hanover, she was leading Donald Trump eighty 0:01:51.120 --> 0:01:55.120 percent in a college down like that where it's very 0:01:55.200 --> 0:01:58.480 high education levels. That being said, there are more voters 0:01:58.480 --> 0:02:01.200 who don't have college education New Hampshire then otherwise. 0:02:01.920 --> 0:02:04.400 So on margins right now, thirty two percent of the 0:02:04.480 --> 0:02:07.120 vote count and according to the Associated Press, Trump fifty 0:02:07.160 --> 0:02:11.000 three point nine, Hailey forty five point one. So we're 0:02:11.080 --> 0:02:13.680 just under a nine point spread at this point. I 0:02:13.680 --> 0:02:16.000 feel like we should remind Genie our global audience that's 0:02:16.040 --> 0:02:18.200 watching that this is the second in a row that 0:02:18.240 --> 0:02:20.560 Trump has won. There's only been two contests he has won, 0:02:20.600 --> 0:02:25.679 both in Iowa. Though historically the person who wins does 0:02:25.720 --> 0:02:27.480 not end up the nominee. It's been that way in 0:02:27.560 --> 0:02:30.920 the last several competitive contests Ted Cruz, for example, one 0:02:30.960 --> 0:02:33.839 at in twenty sixteen, when Trump was the eventual nominee. 0:02:33.960 --> 0:02:37.160 That's not necessarily the case with New Hampshire. But is 0:02:37.200 --> 0:02:40.560 this going to be the year that Iowa and New 0:02:40.560 --> 0:02:43.360 Hampshire both picked the presidents? It wasn't just Iowa picking 0:02:43.400 --> 0:02:44.119 corn this time? 0:02:44.560 --> 0:02:47.080 Yeah, I mean that could be. It seems like that's 0:02:47.080 --> 0:02:49.160 what we are looking at. And you know, this is 0:02:49.240 --> 0:02:52.520 once again I have to say Donald Trump breaking these 0:02:52.760 --> 0:02:57.480 established molds. I think he has changed this Republican Party. 0:02:57.840 --> 0:03:00.360 And let's you know, not forget he has changed the 0:03:00.400 --> 0:03:04.880 primary process as well. Here, if we sit in New Hampshire, 0:03:05.000 --> 0:03:08.520 you and Nikky Haley crossing this state end to end, 0:03:08.560 --> 0:03:12.320 back and forth campaign events and rallies and all these 0:03:12.400 --> 0:03:15.600 kinds of things. He was dropping in for one event 0:03:15.639 --> 0:03:18.919 a day in between court cases for his ninety one 0:03:18.919 --> 0:03:23.640 felony indictments. And yet he has led this thing and 0:03:23.680 --> 0:03:25.680 so I think it's incumbent on all of us to 0:03:25.720 --> 0:03:29.080 try to understand what it is that voters on the 0:03:29.120 --> 0:03:34.320 Republican side are seeing in Donald Trump that they find attractive. 0:03:34.560 --> 0:03:37.280 And I have to say give him credit. He ran 0:03:37.360 --> 0:03:40.560 a really smart campaign here. The two issues he focused 0:03:40.560 --> 0:03:46.440 on immigration security broadly, but immigration social security medicare, which 0:03:46.480 --> 0:03:49.040 we keep saying Joe Matthew was in his commercial on 0:03:49.120 --> 0:03:53.840 that and those two things he tried to move voters, 0:03:53.920 --> 0:03:57.200 and it seems like they were effective. And it's something 0:03:57.200 --> 0:03:59.280 to keep in mind. We talk a lot about Donald 0:03:59.280 --> 0:04:02.760 Trump saying things out of turn, talking about people calling 0:04:02.840 --> 0:04:05.600 them names. He was issue focused, at least on the air. 0:04:05.680 --> 0:04:09.080 Here for a TV audience, we're seeing a live view 0:04:09.160 --> 0:04:12.839 of votes being counted right now in New Hampshire, with 0:04:13.120 --> 0:04:18.240 quite a few to go here. Rick the psychology behind 0:04:18.480 --> 0:04:22.960 Nikki Haley's decision here. Knowing that she is trailing Donald 0:04:22.960 --> 0:04:26.800 Trump badly in her home state as she moves closer 0:04:26.800 --> 0:04:29.040 to South Carolina, could she be more likely to drop 0:04:29.040 --> 0:04:31.800 out to avoid embarrassment there or is she committed to 0:04:31.839 --> 0:04:32.440 that contest? 0:04:32.600 --> 0:04:34.280 You know, look, this is a gut check, right. 0:04:35.000 --> 0:04:39.279 She's been under attack by Donald Trump pretty significantly since 0:04:39.320 --> 0:04:43.040 the Iowa Caucus. She's withstood that pretty well. She did 0:04:43.080 --> 0:04:45.360 fall into a bit of a routine here of responding 0:04:45.360 --> 0:04:47.479 to all the attacks, which is exactly what you don't 0:04:47.520 --> 0:04:50.360 want to do when you're taking in that kind of assault. 0:04:51.080 --> 0:04:53.000 And the question she's going to have the gut check 0:04:53.160 --> 0:04:56.680 is do I want to go through four weeks of 0:04:56.839 --> 0:05:01.120 just intense barrage of attacks by the MAGA machine in 0:05:01.200 --> 0:05:05.280 South Carolina, a significant force of politics that can really 0:05:05.360 --> 0:05:08.320 hurt her image long term if she's not careful. 0:05:09.120 --> 0:05:11.919 And that's going to be really the core question. 0:05:12.000 --> 0:05:14.880 I don't think South Carolina is going to be determined 0:05:14.960 --> 0:05:18.040 by money. She'll have plenty of money to fuel South 0:05:18.080 --> 0:05:21.279 Carolina came for campaign for four weeks. The question is 0:05:21.279 --> 0:05:22.400 is she going to want to. 0:05:23.200 --> 0:05:25.240 Well, you talk about the attacks that she could be 0:05:25.279 --> 0:05:27.240 on the receiving end of. There also is the question 0:05:27.279 --> 0:05:30.320 of the attacks she could be dealing out. We saw 0:05:30.480 --> 0:05:33.039 in the very final days leading up to hear in 0:05:33.040 --> 0:05:35.359 New Hampshire sharpening of the knife, if you will, going 0:05:35.360 --> 0:05:38.000 after Trump for things as we heard her speaking this evening, 0:05:38.279 --> 0:05:41.000 things like senior moments when he confused her apparently with 0:05:41.080 --> 0:05:43.880 Nancy Pelosi, thinking she may have been at the Capitol 0:05:44.000 --> 0:05:46.880 on January sixth when he was speaking a few days ago, 0:05:47.400 --> 0:05:50.200 she's called him chaotic. If she's going to do this 0:05:50.600 --> 0:05:52.800 over the course of the next four weeks, how much 0:05:52.839 --> 0:05:56.360 harder realistically should she go and will she? 0:05:57.120 --> 0:05:59.279 I know a lot of her advisors have been wanting 0:05:59.320 --> 0:06:01.800 to ramp up the attacks, just like you were talking about, 0:06:01.880 --> 0:06:05.520 not just on metal, competency and age. You know, that's 0:06:05.560 --> 0:06:07.200 been sort of the core, and that at the end 0:06:07.200 --> 0:06:09.000 of the day, she still says, yeah, but he's fit 0:06:09.040 --> 0:06:11.719 to be president, right at some point, I think you 0:06:11.800 --> 0:06:14.280 have to draw a brighter and stronger contrast. You have 0:06:14.360 --> 0:06:17.320 to say, you know, he and the electability issue has 0:06:17.320 --> 0:06:19.160 been one that I think she's starting to play even 0:06:19.200 --> 0:06:23.279 harder tonight. She said he can't beat Biden, and she's 0:06:23.320 --> 0:06:25.320 the only one who can. In fact, she said any 0:06:25.400 --> 0:06:29.120 other Republican could. But that means her. So I think 0:06:29.160 --> 0:06:32.039 that she's going to have to come out much more aggressively. 0:06:32.080 --> 0:06:36.320 There's no way a massive negative campaign against you is 0:06:36.720 --> 0:06:38.920 going to be successful for you unless you are able 0:06:38.960 --> 0:06:42.800 to mount a significant and very well scripted, targeted campaign 0:06:42.920 --> 0:06:47.200 against your opponent. And she didn't do it, and DeSantis 0:06:47.200 --> 0:06:49.679 didn't do it. And the only one who really tried 0:06:49.720 --> 0:06:52.120 that was Christy, But he didn't attack Donald Trump on 0:06:52.160 --> 0:06:55.239 the issues. He attracked Donald Trump on his personality. She's 0:06:55.240 --> 0:06:58.880 got a hone an issues attack and proved to voters 0:06:58.880 --> 0:07:02.200 in South Carolina that his form of government is not 0:07:02.320 --> 0:07:04.479 conservative and not good for the country. 0:07:04.520 --> 0:07:07.719 Well, Genie, the Biden campaign is already mobilizing here like 0:07:07.800 --> 0:07:11.040 it's over the statement from Joe Biden's campaign. 0:07:11.080 --> 0:07:11.880 One thing is clear. 0:07:11.960 --> 0:07:14.680 Donald Trump is headed straight into a general election matchup 0:07:14.920 --> 0:07:16.800 where he will face the only person who have ever 0:07:16.800 --> 0:07:18.880 beaten him at the ballot box, Joe Biden. 0:07:19.560 --> 0:07:21.920 Is it right? Is this general election underway? 0:07:22.080 --> 0:07:23.280 You know? And this is one of the things we 0:07:23.320 --> 0:07:26.960 heard Nikki Haley say tonight that Republicans should be concerned 0:07:27.000 --> 0:07:29.800 that Democrats want to run against Donald Trump. And that 0:07:29.920 --> 0:07:32.760 is something we've known because the Biden the Biden team 0:07:32.840 --> 0:07:35.720 has said that, you know, and I think we're hard 0:07:35.720 --> 0:07:40.320 pressed to imagine that anybody besides Donald Trump, barring something 0:07:40.400 --> 0:07:44.720 we unexpected, is going to get this nomination. And you know, 0:07:44.800 --> 0:07:47.720 to put a finer point on it, let's just remember 0:07:47.840 --> 0:07:52.000 evangelicals in South Carolina, her home state, three out of 0:07:52.120 --> 0:07:56.320 four voters identify as evangelicals, only one out of four 0:07:56.400 --> 0:07:59.000 in New Hampshire. This is why this was the state 0:07:59.320 --> 0:08:02.400 for her to beat him. That said, she also tonight 0:08:02.520 --> 0:08:05.320 said I'm going to challenge him to a debate. Why 0:08:05.400 --> 0:08:07.800 is he scared to debate me? So if she stays 0:08:07.840 --> 0:08:10.280 in this thing, she's going to be taunting him about 0:08:10.320 --> 0:08:12.760 a debate. But if you're Donald Trump, can I have 0:08:13.360 --> 0:08:15.880 what incentive do you have to debate she's and who 0:08:15.920 --> 0:08:19.120 is she to ask? She's lost two now, so it's 0:08:19.240 --> 0:08:21.400 you know, if she stays in, I expect we'll hear that. 0:08:21.440 --> 0:08:25.000 But gosh, it's hard to imagine a way forward now. 0:08:25.040 --> 0:08:27.760 She really needed all New Hampshire delegates to pull this 0:08:27.840 --> 0:08:30.480 thing through to the end successfully well. 0:08:30.520 --> 0:08:33.360 And debates typically feature two things, one of them being 0:08:33.400 --> 0:08:36.120 attacks against the person you're debating, the other being actual 0:08:36.520 --> 0:08:41.280 in theory if it's working, substantive policy conversation. And earlier 0:08:41.400 --> 0:08:43.320 a few days ago, over the weekend, we talked to 0:08:43.520 --> 0:08:47.200 Governor Christan Nunu, of course endorsed Haley, actively campaigned for 0:08:47.240 --> 0:08:49.480 her here in New Hampshire. Didn't result in a win 0:08:49.559 --> 0:08:53.880 for her obviously, and I asked him, is the differentiator 0:08:53.920 --> 0:08:58.120 between Haley and Trump actually policy or you're what you 0:08:58.160 --> 0:09:00.280 think is the ability to execute on that, Paul, And 0:09:00.280 --> 0:09:03.880 he's said his execution not actually policy. Is that an 0:09:03.920 --> 0:09:06.600 issue here? You just aren't convincing voters that you would 0:09:06.679 --> 0:09:10.320 actually be that much different, that you have different ideas 0:09:10.320 --> 0:09:11.320 that you're talking about. 0:09:11.760 --> 0:09:14.840 You know, I think it's a mistake because you know, 0:09:14.960 --> 0:09:18.120 let's face it, voters look back at four years of 0:09:18.160 --> 0:09:22.400 Trump on the Republican side and they see successes there, 0:09:23.360 --> 0:09:26.160 you know, so I think it's very hard to convince 0:09:26.200 --> 0:09:30.640 them that the execution wasn't there. But there are policy differentials, 0:09:30.679 --> 0:09:34.120 and she started talking about them, and then she dropped 0:09:34.200 --> 0:09:36.319 back a bit, and I think that that has been 0:09:36.440 --> 0:09:40.280 a problem. You know, there are many many Republicans who 0:09:40.280 --> 0:09:44.640 you look at the amount of spending under the Trump administration, 0:09:45.000 --> 0:09:48.080 who find that objectionable. But she had to hit him hard, 0:09:48.200 --> 0:09:52.040 as did Ron DeSantis. Not having done that already, I'm 0:09:52.080 --> 0:09:55.400 not convinced she can make that case now as she 0:09:55.600 --> 0:09:57.800 moves into these much more difficult states. 0:09:57.840 --> 0:09:59.960 So how does she have to place in South Carolina 0:10:00.280 --> 0:10:03.480 as we wait to have a better understanding of this 0:10:03.640 --> 0:10:05.920 strong second or maybe not so strong. 0:10:06.920 --> 0:10:09.400 Does she have to win her home state? Is it 0:10:09.440 --> 0:10:10.320 as simple as that. 0:10:10.360 --> 0:10:13.200 Well, you can't win a nomination by coming in second, 0:10:13.640 --> 0:10:17.520 and that's really what it's something doing. And the political 0:10:17.559 --> 0:10:20.600 graveyards are stacked full of candidates who thought they could 0:10:20.600 --> 0:10:23.800 win by coming in second and they never did. I mean, 0:10:23.840 --> 0:10:27.240 this will be the first time that a candidate could 0:10:27.240 --> 0:10:31.720 have actually won the first three primaries and caucuses. 0:10:32.559 --> 0:10:35.319 And then you know, we've never turned. 0:10:35.080 --> 0:10:39.480 Back a nominee from that ever. And so as Genie 0:10:39.520 --> 0:10:41.960 likes to say, Donald Trump likes to break the mold, 0:10:42.120 --> 0:10:45.360 and she would have to really break a big mold 0:10:45.640 --> 0:10:48.360 to be successful this way. That being said, you know 0:10:48.400 --> 0:10:50.320 a lot of people are talking about this notion of 0:10:50.320 --> 0:10:53.160 hanging around the hoop long enough, keep racking up delegates 0:10:53.200 --> 0:10:56.000 and stay in the race and keep raising money and 0:10:56.040 --> 0:10:59.200 being the flying the ointment for Donald Trump, at which point, 0:10:59.280 --> 0:11:02.679 maybe he does get convicted of one of these crimes, 0:11:02.800 --> 0:11:08.080 maybe he has enough of these mental moments to convince 0:11:08.240 --> 0:11:11.280 even his own voters that he doesn't have a path 0:11:11.280 --> 0:11:13.480 to go forward to beat Joe Biden. And then she's 0:11:13.520 --> 0:11:16.120 there with the electability argument, and it sounds pretty good 0:11:16.120 --> 0:11:17.200 at that point, yeah, I. 0:11:17.160 --> 0:11:18.760 Guess none of us can know for sure what's going 0:11:18.800 --> 0:11:20.800 to happen over the course of the five months between 0:11:20.800 --> 0:11:24.600 now and when the Republican Convention actually takes place in July. 0:11:24.720 --> 0:11:26.439 And of course Rick and Jennie will be here to 0:11:26.480 --> 0:11:28.920 walk us through the next several months, just like they 0:11:28.920 --> 0:11:31.160 are sticking with us for the remainder of this hour. 0:11:31.280 --> 0:11:33.400 Rick and Jennie will be back with us. But coming up, 0:11:33.440 --> 0:11:36.000 we're going to turn to foreign policy, something that Nikki 0:11:36.040 --> 0:11:40.400 Haley also has staked her candidacy on is her reputation 0:11:41.000 --> 0:11:43.640 in that arena. Will be joined by Elena Lyon of 0:11:43.679 --> 0:11:46.360 the University of New Hampshire. Coming up next, this is 0:11:46.360 --> 0:11:49.720 special coverage of the New Hampshire primary on Bloomberg Television 0:11:50.080 --> 0:12:07.079 and Radio. 0:12:07.640 --> 0:12:09.079 He doesn't believe in limited government. 0:12:09.120 --> 0:12:10.720 He believes in this kind of dictatorship. 0:12:10.760 --> 0:12:12.040 He doesn't believe in local control. 0:12:12.040 --> 0:12:13.040 He believes in Washington. 0:12:13.280 --> 0:12:14.839 So those are not Republican values. 0:12:15.000 --> 0:12:17.440 But you have said because he if he were to 0:12:17.480 --> 0:12:20.000 be the Republican nominee, because you are a Republican, you 0:12:20.040 --> 0:12:20.920 would support. 0:12:20.640 --> 0:12:21.360 That most people. 0:12:21.559 --> 0:12:22.679 That shouldn't surprise anybody. 0:12:23.280 --> 0:12:26.559 Even though he don't think he actually carries the values. 0:12:26.160 --> 0:12:29.040 Of the Republican Look Joe Biden. That's how bad Joe 0:12:29.040 --> 0:12:29.439 Biden is. 0:12:33.160 --> 0:12:35.600 That was part of our conversation with New Hampshire Governor 0:12:35.679 --> 0:12:39.960 Christian Nunu earlier this week in Manchester, as he was 0:12:40.040 --> 0:12:43.280 a surrogate for Nikki Haley, endorsed her campaigns heavily for 0:12:43.400 --> 0:12:45.800 her here in this Granite state, and yet that was 0:12:45.800 --> 0:12:47.959 not enough to actually lead to a victory for her 0:12:48.000 --> 0:12:50.840 here in New Hampshire. The race was called just over 0:12:50.880 --> 0:12:53.480 an hour ago for Donald Trump. Right now, thirty four 0:12:53.520 --> 0:12:56.880 percent of votes are counted, he has fifty three point 0:12:56.920 --> 0:13:01.680 four percent to Nikki Haley's forty five six percent. The 0:13:01.760 --> 0:13:05.720 question is the trajectory of Haley's candidacy going forward, and 0:13:05.760 --> 0:13:09.240 also how much this will become more about the issues 0:13:09.559 --> 0:13:11.600 at play here. We want to talk about foreign policy 0:13:11.640 --> 0:13:12.760 issues in particular. 0:13:12.840 --> 0:13:14.560 Now let's go to Ellina Lyon. 0:13:14.600 --> 0:13:17.319 She's political science professor at the University of New Hampshire 0:13:17.360 --> 0:13:20.480 and author of US Politics and the United Nation. 0:13:20.559 --> 0:13:21.400 She is joining us. 0:13:21.320 --> 0:13:24.360 Here live in our Manchester studios as we simulcast to 0:13:24.400 --> 0:13:27.800 you globally on both Bloomberg Television and radio. Professor Lyon, 0:13:27.880 --> 0:13:30.559 thank you so much for joining US this evening. We 0:13:30.559 --> 0:13:32.920 were just having a conversation with our colleagues Ric and 0:13:32.960 --> 0:13:38.520 Genie about issues domestically the border, social security, and medicare. 0:13:38.200 --> 0:13:39.319 At the retirement age. 0:13:39.520 --> 0:13:42.360 Nikki Haley is the former ambassador of the United Nations, 0:13:42.640 --> 0:13:44.520 and at a time where you have a conflict in 0:13:44.559 --> 0:13:48.080 the Middle East, you have a conflict ongoing in Ukraine, 0:13:48.160 --> 0:13:50.520 she has really tried to flex that at least to 0:13:50.600 --> 0:13:54.360 this point. Is it resonating with voters or do these 0:13:54.400 --> 0:13:56.760 issues just come too far below some of the other 0:13:56.800 --> 0:14:00.599 domestic problems that it's not enough to propel a candidacy 0:14:00.760 --> 0:14:01.600 like hers forward. 0:14:02.280 --> 0:14:03.720 Yeah, such a great question. 0:14:03.800 --> 0:14:07.120 So there's actually a recent a people out looking at 0:14:07.120 --> 0:14:10.120 exactly this and asked voters what are your top five issues? 0:14:10.160 --> 0:14:13.480 And foreign policy made the top five, not the top 0:14:13.520 --> 0:14:15.360 but the top five for I think it was forty 0:14:15.360 --> 0:14:17.880 six percent of Republicans, who was actually doubled that from 0:14:17.920 --> 0:14:20.800 prior and it's a little lower, like thirty seven percent 0:14:20.880 --> 0:14:24.000 or so for Democrats. So yes, I think that foreign 0:14:24.000 --> 0:14:28.000 policy is incredibly important. Maybe not the kitchen table issues 0:14:28.040 --> 0:14:30.280 that people tend to think of, but the news is 0:14:30.520 --> 0:14:33.360 full of a lot of instability in the Middle East, 0:14:33.360 --> 0:14:35.360 and you know, every time you open up your phone 0:14:35.400 --> 0:14:37.200 there's something about the Middle East. It whether it's it 0:14:37.400 --> 0:14:41.800 On or Israel or the Huthis or the situation in Ukraine. 0:14:41.840 --> 0:14:44.440 So I think people are paying attention and it seems 0:14:44.480 --> 0:14:45.880 so volatile, they're nervous. 0:14:46.200 --> 0:14:48.680 We have a global audience tonight. As Kayleie mentioned, what 0:14:48.760 --> 0:14:52.120 extent is the world watching this? Primary Joe Biden always 0:14:52.120 --> 0:14:54.720 tells the story about his first G seven when he 0:14:54.720 --> 0:14:57.880 said America is back and the reply was for how long? 0:14:58.360 --> 0:14:58.560 Yeah? 0:14:58.560 --> 0:14:59.680 I think that's exactly right. 0:15:00.000 --> 0:15:01.840 The rest of the world, whether or not it's v 0:15:02.560 --> 0:15:06.560 Putin or the Europeans or the Canadian Prime minister, everyone 0:15:07.160 --> 0:15:10.200 is watching, and the United States is relevant to We 0:15:10.280 --> 0:15:12.840 have boots on the ground or military presence in over 0:15:12.840 --> 0:15:14.400 one hundred and twenty five countries. 0:15:14.800 --> 0:15:18.400 We are a leader of what we call the international order. 0:15:18.520 --> 0:15:21.760 Right We were the architects of the United Nations, of NATO, 0:15:22.200 --> 0:15:25.040 of the IMF, of the World Bank, of the G seven. 0:15:25.400 --> 0:15:28.880 The United States has led for over seventy years and 0:15:28.960 --> 0:15:32.280 provided guidance to deal with many of these issues, and 0:15:32.440 --> 0:15:35.640 there's a lot of concern. During the Trump administration, there 0:15:35.680 --> 0:15:40.080 was a concerted pullback right. Trump was America first, not 0:15:40.320 --> 0:15:42.960 about dealing with global stability, and so there's a lot 0:15:43.040 --> 0:15:46.000 of people looking at the volatile issues around the world saying, 0:15:46.360 --> 0:15:48.440 is there someone that's going to come help us think 0:15:48.480 --> 0:15:50.480 this through and work these problems. 0:15:50.080 --> 0:15:51.720 Well, and you certainly got a taste of that at 0:15:51.720 --> 0:15:53.080 the World Economic Forum. 0:15:52.800 --> 0:15:55.200 In Davos last week were world. 0:15:55.040 --> 0:15:58.200 Leaders, specifically European ones, even a Central Bankery CB president 0:15:58.280 --> 0:16:00.440 Christine la guard were talking about how they've the risk 0:16:00.480 --> 0:16:04.200 of another Trump presidency, how Europe has has to think 0:16:04.240 --> 0:16:08.000 about that. You say that this is an issue that 0:16:08.400 --> 0:16:11.560 is resonating with voters, that they care about foreign policy issues, 0:16:11.560 --> 0:16:13.160 and the fact of the matter remains that, at least 0:16:13.240 --> 0:16:15.880 judging by the tally right now and looking back at Iowa, 0:16:16.240 --> 0:16:20.800 more than fifty percent of Republican voters support the former 0:16:20.840 --> 0:16:23.840 president who did have an isolationist bent, who did threaten 0:16:23.920 --> 0:16:27.440 potentially to leave NATO. Does that show that actually it's 0:16:27.480 --> 0:16:31.040 not just about him, but the American electorate is becoming 0:16:31.080 --> 0:16:31.960 more isolationist. 0:16:32.320 --> 0:16:33.360 Yeah, you know, and it's funny. 0:16:33.360 --> 0:16:36.120 Isolationism is a term that academics actually fight over. Are 0:16:36.160 --> 0:16:38.560 we isolationists? Do we really want to? And I think 0:16:38.560 --> 0:16:41.400 that many aren't quite sure one what isolation is and means, 0:16:41.520 --> 0:16:43.800 and whether or not it's even possible. Right, when we 0:16:43.800 --> 0:16:46.600 think about isolationism, we think about the early nineteen hundreds, 0:16:46.680 --> 0:16:49.240 right when you could actually close borders and you didn't 0:16:49.320 --> 0:16:52.240 have planes coming in. I mean, the our economy, the 0:16:52.320 --> 0:16:55.760 United States economy relies on our interactions with the world. 0:16:56.120 --> 0:16:59.000 Our health, as we learn from COVID, relies on our 0:16:59.040 --> 0:17:02.320 interactions with the world, world, our climate health, if you will, 0:17:02.360 --> 0:17:04.840 you know, if we're talking about climate change, United States. 0:17:04.600 --> 0:17:07.160 Can't do it alone. There's absolutely no so there. 0:17:07.200 --> 0:17:10.000 I think that the notion of isolationism is a really 0:17:10.080 --> 0:17:12.240 old old one, and I think that there's a lot 0:17:12.280 --> 0:17:14.360 of fear in the electorate, like we don't know what's 0:17:14.400 --> 0:17:17.159 going on out there, and the instinct is kind of 0:17:17.160 --> 0:17:20.840 retract right, and especially you know, there's war fatigue. The 0:17:20.840 --> 0:17:26.119 fatigue of Afghanistan and Iraq was real. Electorate really felt 0:17:26.119 --> 0:17:27.720 that we wrote a lot of checks and didn't get 0:17:27.720 --> 0:17:30.560 a lot back. But in terms of being isolationists, I 0:17:30.600 --> 0:17:31.840 don't even know if it's possible. 0:17:32.000 --> 0:17:32.879 It's great rhetoric. 0:17:33.680 --> 0:17:36.280 We're showing live pictures to our TV audience of an 0:17:36.280 --> 0:17:39.280 empty podium waiting for Donald Trump, and we'll have remarks 0:17:39.359 --> 0:17:42.560 from him when he does emerge here. Having had this 0:17:42.680 --> 0:17:46.080 race called very early on for Donald Trump here, the 0:17:46.080 --> 0:17:50.000 Associated Press waited one minute until after the polls closed 0:17:50.520 --> 0:17:52.440 to get this done. We had news today, Cayley, of 0:17:52.480 --> 0:17:56.320 an eighth strike and Athos strike against toothy rebels in Yemen. 0:17:56.400 --> 0:18:01.240 You mentioned this steady drip of frankly skill headlines that 0:18:01.280 --> 0:18:04.959 people are hearing and reading about in the news. To 0:18:05.000 --> 0:18:08.119 what extent will Joe Biden be judged as having a 0:18:08.160 --> 0:18:11.280 steady hand on the tailer versus what some people see 0:18:11.280 --> 0:18:12.680 as international chaos. 0:18:13.119 --> 0:18:14.800 Yeah, no, I think that's exactly right. 0:18:14.840 --> 0:18:17.520 I think that you know, we're in the middle of 0:18:17.760 --> 0:18:20.920 a storm, a squall if you were using New Hampshire 0:18:21.000 --> 0:18:23.879 terms here at the global level, particularly in the release. 0:18:23.920 --> 0:18:28.000 There are seven to eight particular conflicts going on within 0:18:28.040 --> 0:18:29.720 the release. I mean, I'm trying to count them and 0:18:29.760 --> 0:18:31.800 map them out and explain them to my students. 0:18:31.840 --> 0:18:32.240 It is. 0:18:32.359 --> 0:18:34.840 It is very complicated, and you know they've got these 0:18:34.840 --> 0:18:37.439 little fires. It is a tinder box. If you have 0:18:37.520 --> 0:18:43.159 volatility in Washington, d C. A tweet or something to 0:18:43.200 --> 0:18:46.119 that particular effect could be you know, I had former 0:18:46.160 --> 0:18:48.240 students who worked at the State Department, and they said, 0:18:48.240 --> 0:18:50.200 you know, they'd wake up in the morning, they would 0:18:50.280 --> 0:18:52.639 have their marching orders, they would be preparing to do this, 0:18:52.680 --> 0:18:54.919 to work with this particular country and buship forward, and 0:18:54.920 --> 0:18:57.080 then all of a sudden, the tweet would change everything. 0:18:57.119 --> 0:18:59.160 And so that level of volatility is very concerning. 0:19:00.040 --> 0:19:02.080 Yea, And we certainly have seen the former president, though 0:19:02.080 --> 0:19:04.520 he's no longer on Twitter, posting on x this evening 0:19:04.560 --> 0:19:07.120 after his victory here in New Hampshire saying Nikki Haley 0:19:07.200 --> 0:19:10.520 is delusional that she gotten third in Iowa. As she 0:19:11.160 --> 0:19:14.360 was at her victory party talking about how she did 0:19:14.400 --> 0:19:16.600 concede this race but was going to move forward to 0:19:16.600 --> 0:19:18.840 her home state of South Carolina. She said New Hampshire 0:19:18.880 --> 0:19:20.720 was the first in the nation, it is not the 0:19:20.800 --> 0:19:24.200 last in the nation. She's going to carry this forward. 0:19:24.280 --> 0:19:27.400 And we are seeing pictures now for our TV audience 0:19:27.520 --> 0:19:31.080 of Donald Trump his party this evening as well. We 0:19:31.119 --> 0:19:32.720 expect Joe that we'll hear from him very shortly. 0:19:32.800 --> 0:19:34.480 Yeah, he's got the whole family with him, or at 0:19:34.560 --> 0:19:38.560 least a number of family on the stage with a 0:19:38.640 --> 0:19:41.240 long bank of American flags and the typical Trump set 0:19:41.280 --> 0:19:43.200 up a lot of phones in the air here, Kayley, 0:19:43.280 --> 0:19:46.240 as we wait to hear remarks from the former president, 0:19:46.280 --> 0:19:49.800 I'm curious which Trump we get. If it's retribution Trump 0:19:50.240 --> 0:19:52.119 or if it's come together unity Trump. 0:19:52.160 --> 0:19:54.160 We've seen both in the last week. 0:19:54.880 --> 0:19:58.359 Yes, we absolutely have after Iowa, very congratulatory tone, even 0:19:58.440 --> 0:20:01.199 for Ronda Santas Nicki Haley for the campaigns they were 0:20:01.280 --> 0:20:03.760 running their much more disciplined message. We'll wait to see 0:20:04.440 --> 0:20:07.760 how what kind of tone he strikes this evening, Professor Lyon, 0:20:07.840 --> 0:20:09.920 just one more question quickly, and I apologize that we'll 0:20:09.960 --> 0:20:14.160 have to interrupt you when the former president starts to speak. 0:20:14.400 --> 0:20:17.000 You were talking about your students and also explaining to 0:20:17.040 --> 0:20:18.639 them the issues of the Middle East. And we have 0:20:18.760 --> 0:20:22.840 seen that students, the younger population here in the United 0:20:22.840 --> 0:20:25.200 States has at least a group of them very particular 0:20:25.240 --> 0:20:28.000 feeling about what's happening right now in Gaza, the conflict 0:20:28.000 --> 0:20:32.399 between Israel and Hamas. How much is that dragging on 0:20:32.520 --> 0:20:35.800 the incumbent President Joe Biden his handling of that issue 0:20:35.960 --> 0:20:38.800 in particular, as we have seen tens of thousands of 0:20:38.800 --> 0:20:40.520 civilians killed. 0:20:41.160 --> 0:20:43.560 Yeah, I think it's going to be a significant issue 0:20:43.560 --> 0:20:46.600 for whoever becomes president, and it's definitely something that Biden's 0:20:46.640 --> 0:20:48.520 had to tread very carefully. 0:20:48.640 --> 0:20:51.480 One, we have been unconditional. 0:20:50.880 --> 0:20:55.560 Allies of Israel for years and years, and how unconditional 0:20:55.680 --> 0:20:57.720 is that? But also being mindful of the fact that 0:20:57.760 --> 0:21:00.359 there are twenty two Arab states, and there is thee 0:21:00.560 --> 0:21:03.080 On and there is Turkey, and we are close to 0:21:03.119 --> 0:21:04.240 those countries as well. 0:21:05.840 --> 0:21:08.960 Joining us now Bloomberg's Peggy Collins and Mario Parker with 0:21:09.119 --> 0:21:10.680 us at the table now that we have a better 0:21:10.720 --> 0:21:14.840 sense of where we're going here. Mario, you covered Donald 0:21:14.880 --> 0:21:19.200 Trump in the White House and as a candidate, how difficult, 0:21:19.359 --> 0:21:21.360 how bruising is this going to be for the next 0:21:21.359 --> 0:21:23.240 four weeks if she decides to stay in this race. 0:21:23.680 --> 0:21:26.200 Well, Joe and Kayley, you all set it up perfectly. 0:21:26.240 --> 0:21:27.919 I mean, what you saw in that speech that he 0:21:28.080 --> 0:21:30.920 just gave was he was signaling it it's gonna be rough. 0:21:30.960 --> 0:21:34.320 Now he's about to probably start throwing some really really 0:21:34.359 --> 0:21:37.880 tough haymakers, especially as he goes towards South Carolina. Look, 0:21:37.960 --> 0:21:41.119 the former president is under legal troubles. He wants to 0:21:41.160 --> 0:21:44.520 make this a coronation more than a nomination. He needs 0:21:44.600 --> 0:21:47.920 these victories. He needed this New Hampshire victory. He needed Iowa. 0:21:48.240 --> 0:21:51.840 He's gonna need South Carolina. She's signaling that she's gonna 0:21:51.840 --> 0:21:54.520 stay in the race until South Carolina at least, so 0:21:54.560 --> 0:21:56.320 you're gonna see things get pretty ugly. 0:21:56.720 --> 0:21:58.879 Well in South Carolina is still four weeks away. That 0:21:58.920 --> 0:22:02.119 primary Peggy is on on February twenty fourth. We have 0:22:02.160 --> 0:22:04.840 a global audience joining us here on TV and radio tonight. 0:22:05.200 --> 0:22:09.360 Would anyone listening to us right now have any real 0:22:09.440 --> 0:22:12.560 reason to believe that Trump wasn't ultimately going to be 0:22:12.680 --> 0:22:15.280 the nominee, regardless of whether or not Nikki Hailey decides 0:22:15.320 --> 0:22:19.680 to continue competing in these contests or not. Right now, 0:22:20.200 --> 0:22:22.840 looking at the data, he pulled more than fifty percent 0:22:22.840 --> 0:22:25.560 of the vote here as he did in Iowa last week. 0:22:26.119 --> 0:22:28.679 Well, I think the momentum is clearly going his way. 0:22:28.800 --> 0:22:32.040 That's undeniable. But I think what people have said it 0:22:32.160 --> 0:22:34.919 round the Klee campaign, even in the days leading up 0:22:34.960 --> 0:22:36.760 to this, is that they wanted to show that they 0:22:36.840 --> 0:22:40.159 are doing better with each race. So they did do 0:22:40.280 --> 0:22:42.520 that tonight. They had a better showing than in Iowa. 0:22:42.640 --> 0:22:45.280 So the question is going to be in her home state. 0:22:45.720 --> 0:22:48.880 Can she perform even better than she did here in Iowa. 0:22:48.920 --> 0:22:51.280 So now we're getting into, as Mario said, kind of 0:22:51.320 --> 0:22:54.080 the zone of the fifty percent and whether or not 0:22:54.200 --> 0:22:57.600 she can show that she's going to be able to 0:22:57.640 --> 0:23:01.040 compete with Donald Trump before he gets that coronation and 0:23:01.160 --> 0:23:02.680 nomination slam dunk. 0:23:02.720 --> 0:23:05.520 In some ways, The question worth asking again, though, Mario, 0:23:05.640 --> 0:23:07.479 is how she can do it there if not here 0:23:07.680 --> 0:23:09.680 in New Hampshire, knowing it's going to be a lot 0:23:09.720 --> 0:23:14.240 closer to Iowa politics in terms of demographics and values 0:23:14.280 --> 0:23:17.160 in South Carolina. I believe Genie mentioned one in four 0:23:17.200 --> 0:23:18.840 Republicans or evangelicals. 0:23:19.160 --> 0:23:20.720 That's Trump country again, is it not. 0:23:21.160 --> 0:23:24.600 That's a great point, Joe. I mean, you saw Nikki 0:23:24.640 --> 0:23:28.760 Haley's campaign. Also, you saw Americans for Prosperity other groups 0:23:28.880 --> 0:23:32.240 really go all in. In New Hampshire. This was her 0:23:32.280 --> 0:23:36.440 best shot right now, just given the composition of the electorate, 0:23:36.720 --> 0:23:43.920 highly educated, white collar suburbans, moderate voters as well undecided voters. 0:23:44.080 --> 0:23:45.919 And then you go to South Carolina, it looks a 0:23:45.920 --> 0:23:48.480 lot like Iowa. She's hoping that she has a little 0:23:48.480 --> 0:23:51.760 bit of home court advantage there, but again, this is 0:23:51.800 --> 0:23:55.480 a deeply red state in South Carolina, it is they. 0:23:55.440 --> 0:23:57.359 Also got a history of some pretty dirty. 0:23:57.080 --> 0:24:00.280 Tricks, that is true, absolutely, and then you've got Donald 0:24:00.320 --> 0:24:03.080 Trump down now he's had this infrastructure again. I think 0:24:03.119 --> 0:24:04.720 one of the things that we forget about in this 0:24:04.800 --> 0:24:07.000 election is the fact that Donald Trump is running for 0:24:07.040 --> 0:24:10.680 a third time. The muscle memory that you get the infrastructure, 0:24:11.119 --> 0:24:14.280 infrastructure that you have over that course as well able 0:24:14.320 --> 0:24:15.840 to kind of sow the ground in some of these 0:24:15.920 --> 0:24:16.520 key states. 0:24:16.760 --> 0:24:16.920 Well. 0:24:16.920 --> 0:24:19.000 And that's what we've been hearing about his campaign this 0:24:19.119 --> 0:24:21.399 third time around, that it is much more organized, that 0:24:21.400 --> 0:24:24.280 they are much more disciplined, and perhaps we are seeing 0:24:24.440 --> 0:24:27.240 the reaped reward of that in New Hampshire this evening, 0:24:27.520 --> 0:24:31.639 we're talking about South Carolina in terms of the Republican primary, Peggy, 0:24:31.680 --> 0:24:33.640 but there will also be a Democratic Party in South 0:24:33.640 --> 0:24:36.520 Carolina officially, if we're talking about what counts in terms 0:24:36.560 --> 0:24:39.240 of delegates, it will be the first for the Democratic Party. 0:24:39.320 --> 0:24:41.760 Joe Biden was not on the ballot here in the 0:24:41.760 --> 0:24:44.399 Granite State this evening, there was a write in campaign. 0:24:44.440 --> 0:24:47.760 It appears he won that by a pretty sizable margin. 0:24:47.800 --> 0:24:51.000 Dean Phillips, though a congressman from Minnesota, a Democrat got 0:24:51.000 --> 0:24:52.680 twenty percent of the vote. 0:24:52.880 --> 0:24:54.320 How should we be thinking about. 0:24:54.080 --> 0:24:56.800 What New Hampshire tells us about the incumbent president as 0:24:56.800 --> 0:24:59.520 he is the presumptive Democratic nominee at this point. 0:25:00.040 --> 0:25:02.480 I certainly think we saw in talking to voters and 0:25:02.520 --> 0:25:04.320 then tonight in some of the results, that there are 0:25:04.320 --> 0:25:07.200 a lot of people who are saying they're not seeing 0:25:07.240 --> 0:25:09.040 what they want to see coming out of the Biden 0:25:09.080 --> 0:25:12.320 administration and their campaign. We saw time and time again 0:25:12.359 --> 0:25:15.639 that people were telling us immigration and border security have 0:25:15.760 --> 0:25:18.440 become almost as big as, if not a bigger issue 0:25:18.480 --> 0:25:21.960 than how much people are seeing their pocketbooks get hurt 0:25:22.000 --> 0:25:24.480 by inflation, which was the big issue last year. So 0:25:24.600 --> 0:25:27.520 I certainly think that people are looking to the president 0:25:27.560 --> 0:25:30.320 and not only asking questions about age, but asking questions 0:25:30.359 --> 0:25:33.120 about policy, and so the Biden campaign is really going 0:25:33.160 --> 0:25:37.080 to have to answer those questions to voters heading into 0:25:37.119 --> 0:25:37.960 South Carolina. 0:25:38.000 --> 0:25:39.280 As you said, Haley. 0:25:39.680 --> 0:25:42.840 As you said, Cally, I'm sorry in terms of how 0:25:42.880 --> 0:25:44.760 they are going to solve some of these problems that 0:25:44.800 --> 0:25:47.520 Americans are saying, Hey, we see this as a problem, 0:25:47.600 --> 0:25:48.720 we want a solution for it. 0:25:48.840 --> 0:25:50.920 Yeah, Mario, you got a fascinating interview that you brought 0:25:50.960 --> 0:25:54.080 us at Bloomberg with Larry Hogan when he was still 0:25:54.080 --> 0:25:56.680 a national coach here of No Labels. These since left 0:25:56.720 --> 0:25:58.720 that group which got everyone thinking he might launch a 0:25:58.800 --> 0:26:01.520 run for the presidency. They have said, if it's Trump 0:26:01.680 --> 0:26:04.479 Biden by Super Tuesday, we're running a candidate, whether it's 0:26:04.560 --> 0:26:06.800 Larry Hogan or someone else, Will that happen. 0:26:07.160 --> 0:26:09.800 It looks like it, right, because that's what's happening. At 0:26:09.880 --> 0:26:12.439 least we're at least as of today, it looks like 0:26:12.480 --> 0:26:16.119 we're going forth towards this rematch of Biden and Trump, 0:26:16.800 --> 0:26:19.359 something that voters are polling shows that voters have no 0:26:19.440 --> 0:26:22.720 appetite for. So it does look like the No Label's 0:26:22.760 --> 0:26:25.240 movement will be moving forward, at least if they're going 0:26:25.320 --> 0:26:26.560 to keep their word in that regard. 0:26:27.000 --> 0:26:29.720 All right, Bloomberg's Mario Parker, who leads our White House 0:26:29.720 --> 0:26:32.000 and National politics covered here at Bloomberg, as well as 0:26:32.040 --> 0:26:34.399 Peggy Collins, are Washington Bureau chief. Thank you both so 0:26:34.480 --> 0:26:37.280 much for joining us this evening, not from Washington, but 0:26:37.359 --> 0:26:40.720 from Manchester, New Hampshire, where Trump has been declared the 0:26:40.760 --> 0:26:43.160 victor of the first in the nation primary.