827: 10 Trends for Week 9

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Speaker 1: This is the Lady Bold Podcast with with your host JJ Zacher, Retha Jay Jake Zachers. What's up everyone, It's JJ Zacharyesen in this episode eight hundred and twenty seven of the Late Round Fantasy Football podcast sponsored by FanDuel. Thanks for tuning in. Hey, if you could do me a favor, If you've enjoyed this show, you've gotten something out of it over the years, do me a favor and leave a rating and review. Of course, make sure you're subscribed to the show too, but leaving a rating and review helps the show grow. It really helps me out. Apple Podcasts is a great place to do it. So if you could leave this show a rating and review. Now that that's out of the way, let's get to this week's trends. Taysom Hill was really living it up as a tight end in week six and seven. He had target shares of seventeen point four percent and nine point four percent. During those two weeks. His route participation was around sixty seven percent. In week eight, he had a huge outing, but it wasn't as a receiver, it was as a rusher. As a receiver with Juwan Johnson, back Hill saw his route participation fall to forty percent. That was a big difference compared to Week six and Week seven. It's good that they use him so much as a rusher, but I do think that we're going to be running into the typical Taysom Hill volatility once again. Over the last three weeks, Brece Hall is ranked as the RB three, RB four, and RB seven and weekly PPR scoring. During this time, he's seen a seventy five percent running back rush share in each game, and his target share per game has been seventeen point seven percent. Now for some context with how that compares to how he started the season from weeks one to four, his running back rushare was twenty eight percentage points lower, his target share per game was almost nine percentage points lower. We're seeing Breis Hall the bellcow, and it's a beautiful thing. Another running back coming off a big injury last year is Javonte Williams, and we've been seeing better usage from him over the last two weeks. In Week seven to eight, Williams average a running back rush are of seventy five percent. His target share was sixteen point seven percent in both contests. That's some big news. He's given us two straight performances now with twelve plus PPR points. He failed to reach double digits in each of his first five games, and Denver's a big regression candidate. This season, just one of their seventeen offensive touchdowns have come via the ground. That passed to rush touchdown rate of ninety four percent is second in the NFL, behind only Minnesota. It's a number that will definitely regress moving forward. That's all awesome news for Javonte Williams. The New York Jets have been unbelievably good against wide receivers this year. Only three wideouts have ranked in the weekly Top twenty four against them this year. Those three wide outs were Stefan Diggs, who's good at football, Cede Lamb who's good at football, and aj Brown, who's also good at football. The Jets rank is by far the worst matchup for wideouts and adjusted fantasy points allowed. Their opponents are scoring eleven fewer wide receiver points against them than they typically score in a given game. Now, some of this is definitely due to what happened last week against the Giants, but even when you adjust for that, the Jets are still the toughest matchup for wideouts. Keep that in mind. Moving forward, Ramandre Stevenson has been trending in the right direction. Over New England's last three games. He's averaged a target share per game rate of seventeen point nine percent, which is in line with what we saw in twenty twenty two. Prior to this stretch, his target share per game was just ten percent according to Fantasy Life's utilization report, which you can check out yourself for free over on fantasylife dot com. But according to that report, Stevenson really hasn't been seeing substantially different route participation. What's changed is his targets per route run. It's hovered the twenty seven percent range over this three week period. It was in the low teens before that. Essentially how the Patriots have been using Stevenson over the last three weeks. It's more in line, at least as a receiver, with what we saw in twenty twenty two. I'm not sure it keeps up, but I do think that we're bound to see better numbers from Stevenson than what we saw at the start of the year. Rashi Rice ran the second most routes for Kansas City this past week. That's great, but running the second most routes for the Chiefs. It's a lot less meaningful than if it happened on another team because they're still rotating their wide receivers at a pretty high rate. Rice has seen his route participation stay above the sixty percent mark over the last two weeks. That's up from the forty to fifty percent range that he'd been seeing prior to that, but his sixty percent route participation still is not ideal. That's led to Rice failing to hit higher than a fifteen percent target share in each of his last four games. In my opinion, the Chiefs need to get him on the field more. He has by far the best yards per route run rate on the team at wide receiver. Now. I didn't talk about to Mario Douglas on yesterday's fifteen Transaction Show because I talked about him the week prior, but in Week eight we saw an uptick in usage. Part of that was probably due to Kendrick Bourne getting hurt in the early fourth quarter, but things have been trending this way for Douglas. Douglas has now hit a twenty percent target chair in each of his last two games. His route participation over his last two has been seventy seven percent and eighty four percent. The one problem that Douglas could run into is that the Patriots decided to use him like the Giants used Wandell Robinson, because in Week eight per Fantasy Life, Douglas had an average up the target of just two point three yards. The week before it was still pretty low at seven point two yards. If he's gonna be a legit fantasy producer, and he's gonna have a lot of opportunity now that Kendrick Bourne towards acl If he's gonna be a legit producer, he's gonna need to see more targets down the field. The Cardinals of Legit used their running backs in totally different ways during the three games that James Connor's been sidelined. In Week six, we saw a pretty split back through between Amri de Marcado Keante Ingram, and there's a little bit Damian Williams sprinkled in there too. De Marcado had the best route participation, but Ingram was used more on the ground, with a fifty percent running back rusher that was back in Week six. In Week seven, de Marcado eighty percent snap rate, ninety three percent running back rush yare fifteen percent target share. He was their bellcow. So through two weeks, de Marcado was the clear pass catcher in the group. He was running by far the most routes until week eight. In week eight, Keyanta Ingram had a route participation of almost forty nine percent, De Marcado twenty eight percent. This is the headache that we can run into when analyzing the usage for backup running backs. We can't just assume the backup running back is going to have the same role week in and week out. Zach Sharbonay got more work for Seattle in week eight. He saw an identical target share to Kenneth Walker, and Walker had just three more rush attempts. Sharbonet finished the game with a higher snap rate. He out snapped Walker thirty one to twenty four. Now, Walker was dealing with a calf injury during the week, maybe that played a role, but Pete Carroll said that Sharbonay hasn't had a lot of opportunities and they wanted to give him a chance to play and contribute. He later added that he quote gets it and that the game comes easy to him, and then Carol also added that Sharboney hasn't had any problems with pass protection. Essentially, I wouldn't look into Week eight as solely an injury thing for Kenneth Walker. Now it's not time to panic or anything, but if Sharps is on your waiver wire for whatever reason, he should be added. Sam Howe has been a QB won this season in points per game among quarterbacks with more than four games played. How's the QB eight and standard fantasy points scored per game coord to my adjusted fantasy points allowed numbers. Though how has faced the easiest schedule in football to start the year. According to those numbers, five of his eight games have come against top eight favorable opponents for quarterbacks. Another one was a game against the eleventh ranked opponent. In his two bottom half matchup games, House scored point six and nine point five fantasy points. Moving forward, Washington has the twentieth best scheduled rest of season for quarterbacks. It's probably not going to be as smooth from here on out for Sam Howe. That's it for today's show, though thanks to all of you for listening. If you yet subscribe to the Late Round Fantasy Football podcast, make sure you are by starting for it. Pretty much anywhere podcasts can be found. Follow me on Twitter at late Round QB. Thanks for listening everyone, Talk to you tomorrow with the Weekly Sleeper Show.