Week 17 NFL Picks with Cynthia Frelund

00:00:05
Speaker 1: Welcome to NFL Daily, where we love a little Christmas drama. I'm Greg Rosenthal here in the Chris Westleying podcast studio with my friend Cynthia Freeland. And the drama that I'm referring to is not whether I can keep the twelve straight winning weeks going?

00:00:21
Speaker 2: Can we know you can?

00:00:22
Speaker 1: Thirteen? No, the drama is can we get Cynthia to a plane on Christmas Eve? On time? The seer in laws?

00:00:32
Speaker 2: We'll find out, which means we got to find We're fine. We're gonna be totally fine.

00:00:35
Speaker 1: So if you're listening to this, it's probably the day after Christmas or sometime over the weekend, and we hope you had a great holiday. This is the show where we pick three games against the spread each and every week. And yes, as I mentioned, I kept the winning streak going last week. Shout out to the Chargers for coming through for me. And let's move on to the seventeen picks. Thirty one and good on the season. So good. I can't remember even what my other winning pick was, but who cares. Let's get to Cynthia's winning picks this week. What is your first one?

00:01:09
Speaker 2: I want to start off with a Saturday game, because games of consequence feel like better opportunities to pick, especially if you're looking against the spread. So the very first one, the one where we you know, know who's playing at least at the quarterback position presumably, so ultimately I think that the Texans take care of business and have the upset here at SOFI Stadium, Rainy, there's a tornado warning here in South the Colt crazy stuff going on here, including the fact that I still think that when it comes down to which team will be able to exact their will on the other team's offense more efficiently and effectively. I mean, between Daniel Hunter and you know, Will Anderson Junior, it's just going to be a lot of pressure and a lot of justin Herbert's just going to have to contend with a lot, which is something he's been doing all season. However, I think Houston has the edge in this one.

00:01:57
Speaker 1: I'm torn on this one. As you know, we tape their show game debut, which if you're curious, you can always check out on YouTube. We appreciate everyone, yes, who watches this show on YouTube. Everyone should also be subscribing and checking out Numbers Games starring Cynthia Freeland, but it's put up on the NFL feed as our NFL pick. Sure, that's every game, and I pick up the Chargers, but I don't feel strong about this one. And certainly last year's playoff game has you worried that the matchup for the Chargers is just a bad one. And I was a little surprised at actually that they were favored in this.

00:02:29
Speaker 2: Do you know that Will Anderson Junior on third down has twelve more pressures than the next closest player, whose name is Miles Garrett, just saying.

00:02:35
Speaker 1: That's a forty three good call? And I know you know you have respect for DVOA, you trust your model more, but that they have a pretty big difference between these two teams, So they would support you number five team in the law, and.

00:02:46
Speaker 2: They support me. I like that.

00:02:48
Speaker 1: Yes, is the Texas and the Chargers down there at fourteen because their offense is so inconsistent. That was a stay away from me A game I am going to pick. I really like four games this week, and so I'm struggling. I kind of want you to pick one of them and then we'll see it. We'll see if that actually happened. No, I mean and then it'll just like make it out of the way for me. Yeah, I hate doing this because as we're taping, I'm not sure who's starting at quarterback for the Packers or the Ravens for sure, But the reason I'm comfortable taking it, and right now it's three points. It could certainly raise if it looks like it's going to be snoopont Ley versus Jordan Love, which my gut tells me is the most likely outcome, but it could be Lamar Jackson versus Jordan Love, it could be Malik Wills. It doesn't matter. The Packers are going to cover this number no matter what it is. I just think that the Ravens are a dead team walking. I'm going to talk about the Bucks a little later, but they're in the same position for me, okay, at least this week. I have you ever heard of a phrase called like a death wish, you know, like someone who's almost going through like they almost have a death. Sometimes teams get a death wish and it somehow comes out in the form of what happens in fourth quarters of games, Like suddenly Zay Flowers fumbles the ball and the defense starts giving up big plays when it comes to the Ravens, I just don't think this is a good team. And I think the Packers lost two brutal games where they played pretty well back to back, but I think they're ultimately a much better team. And I just think these two teams are in different classes, and I think the defense can give the Ravens some problems, you know, send some different looks, but it's really about the offense of the Packers that even if it's Malik Willis, I think it can get a lot done on the ground and just beat this Ravens team and kind of put them out of their misery on Saturday night clinch a playoff spot for themselves and the Pittsburgh Steelers.

00:04:40
Speaker 2: I mean, look, I think it's very interesting. I'm with you on the entire thing. And I'll add that the Ravens are only getting the fourth lowest pressure rate, meaning they're you know, very not consistent at getting pressure on any quarterback. Malik Willis played admirably in the loss great the Bear. So it's not like, I mean it's a step down, of course, because Jordan loves in a diff front class, but like it's not this massive step down where you're like Oh no, all hope is lost, not even not even.

00:05:04
Speaker 1: You just reminded me who my other right pick was last week. Fortunately it was against your line. Oh, I don't care, just the Steeler. Remember I said, it seems like I had a seven point You also had the Steelers cover.

00:05:17
Speaker 2: I had the Steelers covering this spread. I just had the Lions winning the game.

00:05:20
Speaker 1: Let's go to your second pick.

00:05:21
Speaker 2: Okay, my second pick. What's the number you're seeing for San Francisco on Sunday night?

00:05:26
Speaker 1: Three? Okay?

00:05:27
Speaker 2: Yeah, San Francisco covers that number. Okay, I think the night is that one? Or four?

00:05:31
Speaker 1: No?

00:05:31
Speaker 2: Oh wow, okay, I'm trying to guess you're four based on knowing who you picked it every game. Didn't pick it?

00:05:36
Speaker 1: Uh. I do like the forty nine ers in that game if I had to take one, but you know I respect them both enough I stayed away. Yeah.

00:05:42
Speaker 2: It's not that I don't like the Bears. I just think when one team's massive strength is to run the football or to create the there are approximating runs with some of the stuff they do. With Christian McCaffrey and his ability to keep things on the ground and not when you're so turnover reliant, like if you look at point differential, which isn't the old only measure of something someone's success, Like the Bears are at like thirty three points, so meaning they're winning very close games. We get it, but they're also turnover reliant. When you're so turnover reliant and you're playing Kyle Shanahan the week after he just played and beat another Shanahan Tree guy, I just think he's gonna sit there and be like, okay, because that is talk about a watching film that's really relevant to what you do. That's the same fundamental offense as the Green Bay Packers, right, different people, different strengths and weaknesses, but the same ideas and concepts, the same tree. So I just I have struggled to find a way for them to keep that going unless they get some crazy amount of turnovers.

00:06:39
Speaker 1: But I don't think that happens. I've loved brock Perdy's decision making lately.

00:06:43
Speaker 2: I think he's certain dimes too as you watch it are like who threw that spiral?

00:06:48
Speaker 1: He did?

00:06:49
Speaker 2: Joe Joe Montana.

00:06:50
Speaker 1: Complete some highly difficulty throws, but sometimes he almost tries too many, and I think he's really had it dialed in what to go for and not to and I just think that offense is a wagon. So I'm with you. I like that pick. This was just a week, you know how Last week I was like, yeah, man, there's only one game I really love to this game. This week I loved like five and so that was one of my loves. That was one of my likes. Let's go to another love, okay, because if it was actually, if it was my money, what is what is your third pick gonna be? I want to see if it's one of mine, so then you can just.

00:07:26
Speaker 2: Take I just pointed it, so I don't sure this one, Okay, that was gonna be one of mine, so I will I will let you take that.

00:07:33
Speaker 1: That's perfect. Let's let's go to the Rams, okay. Okay, I'm not going to say that the Rams are gonna try harder because they lost, although the Sean McVay has been saying that he's just like, this is gonna make us stronger. This lost, I can see it. Here's what else is going to make you stronger? Having extra rest another day, having extra rest against the Atlanta Falcons, three days extra rest. At this time of year, I think it's a thing, and then playing the Atlanta Falcons, that's the thing. You just put up five hundred and eighty yards on the Seattle Seahawks defense, and now you're gonna go up against Raheem Morris, someone you're very familiar with, who really has only had good games this year defensively when he can confuse the other opponent, when they can send all sorts of blitzes and they get really creative. Just try it against Matthew Stafford. He's seen it all before. Sean McVay kind of knows what's coming. And they're gonna have perfect conditions there in the Dome, not much of a home field advantage. I don't believe in Atlanta and a team that really needs to win the game, and I think they'd love to make a statement and like rest guys in the fourth quarter of this game. And that's how good I think that they are. So good luck trying to convince him. And also it's on Monday night, little MVP magic here. And on the flip side, it's like Kirk Cousins has been good, but he's only been good when he hasn't faced much much pressure, and I think he will face some pressure, so they're seven and a half point favorites. I thought it'd be a little more. Frankly, I just I don't think the Falcons. I know they've won six games and they're not one of the worst teams in the league or anything. But at this point in the season, I would take ten for the Rams and feel fine about it.

00:09:10
Speaker 2: Yeah. No, I think that could get bit up too, and I'd be comfortable with it, all right. My last one New England, Yes.

00:09:16
Speaker 1: That was one where like if it was actually we're not allowed to bet not and I love that for us, although this year it would have been profitable for me. But if it was actually my money, I think I would maybe go with that. But it didn't seem as interesting to me. It almost just seemed seemed too weaky.

00:09:34
Speaker 2: What would you bid it up?

00:09:34
Speaker 1: Too?

00:09:36
Speaker 2: So like where is it? What are you seeing?

00:09:38
Speaker 1: Like sixteen and a half? It's at thirteen and a half right now?

00:09:40
Speaker 2: Yeah, so sub fourteen that's crazy. So to me, I would have bit it up probably sixteen something that would be more comfortable like that. Like I so when you see the differential of three points like tasty.

00:09:54
Speaker 1: Especially for your conservative model, and I have a number that big yes, what is the Brady Cook factor in your model?

00:10:01
Speaker 2: Unfortunately, for Brady Cook, it's the problem with the problem that he has is that there's a lot of great pieces of this New England defense that are maybe even a little bit underrated, like Kayleevon Chase On, Like, we don't talk about him enough, although his name is fun to say, so we should. But you know, he was a bargain and coming off the edge he's done great.

00:10:17
Speaker 1: You know he might come back there by the way, Milton Williams.

00:10:21
Speaker 2: I wasn't even I didn't. I was doing this without even factoring Milton Williams. And and he was their big money. They were very spendy on him and it paid off.

00:10:28
Speaker 1: So I don't know.

00:10:29
Speaker 2: I just think this. This is a not to say that the Jets don't have anything to play for, but like these whole team.

00:10:34
Speaker 1: I mean they don't. No team is truly tanking harder than the Jets. Now they put Brock Bauers on injured reserve, right, that would be much lower on my list. The Raiders game. But here's what that's a little bit of a tank move. But playing Brady Cook is a tank move. They could Taylor.

00:10:51
Speaker 2: But think about it. The Raiders, Pete Carroll, Pete Carroll, He's gonna try. Yeah, I'm staying with car Stay the heck away from anything to do with Pete Carroll and the Giants just don't do it. Yes, I guess that could that one coin flip fifty truly a fifty to fifty to me.

00:11:06
Speaker 1: Here's a great stat about the Jets that I had ready and go I los it was my pick. In the last three weeks, they have been outscored one hundred and eleven to thirty six. That is an average of twenty five points. And it's not like one week was forty and the other was ten. No, they were all twenty two and above for three straight weeks. And two of those games were against teams were that were well under five hundred, so they weren't even good teams. The Jags beat them up too, and they're a good team. But yeah, I think the Pat's killed all right. My last one is one of those teams that beat up on the Jets a couple weeks back. It is the Miami Dolphins plus five and a half. Let's get frisky with Quinn viewers. In Week seventeen over the Bucks, don't doubt me. Although I do lose one every week, it's usually two and one, not three and zero. But I've had a winning week twelve straight weeks. Quinn eewers in that game and this one I wouldn't feel comfort about if I didn't go back and watch it. I thought he played find They had three straight turnovers in the third quarter. Maybe one was his fault, but the other was a fluky tip. The other was a fumble by you know, one of his teammates, and the other was just they got stuffed on a fourth and one. And when I talked about the death wish, I just got bad vibes about this Bucks team, And so I'm taking the.

00:12:23
Speaker 2: You have worse vibes about the Bucks than the Dolphins.

00:12:26
Speaker 1: No, but the Bucks.

00:12:28
Speaker 2: But the bad vibes have already passed, Like the Dolphins have already absorbed their bad vibes. Now they're in a post bad vibe world.

00:12:36
Speaker 1: It's more that close. Late in games, they're playing like Baker Mayfield plays just a little frenetic, and I can see them winning this game. I initially picked them to win this game, but five and a half is just a lot for me for a team that doesn't do anything well right now, if you kind of look at all their underlying metrics, like you do, run defense is okay, but I don't think they'll be good on the outside. They're slower against Devon a Chan. Everything else is below average, like run offense, run passing offense, passing defense, especially like they're just a mediocre team. These to me, are two mediocre teams. The Bucks are like two and seven in their last nine games.

00:13:14
Speaker 2: I know it's not good.

00:13:15
Speaker 1: That's pretty brutal. And the Dolphins they're okay. So to me, this is like one of those coin flip games. That's how I see it. And so the fact that I'm getting five and a half means I'll take the five and a half and it means on game debut. Since I truly do believe in my heart it's a coin flip game, I might as well just take the Dolphins to win.

00:13:32
Speaker 2: Because we only count the straight ups as are.

00:13:34
Speaker 1: And because you and Patrick are taking me to the woodshed this year.

00:13:37
Speaker 2: So that's why we should. You should do it.

00:13:38
Speaker 1: It's a good strategy. I'm doing much better against the spread than I am straight up, so it's awesome. That's it. We made it.

00:13:45
Speaker 2: We did it. Thank you so much, Chris.

00:13:47
Speaker 1: Cynthia, you are the best. Like I said, check out numbers.

00:13:51
Speaker 2: So you guys all know you think he's cool when you listen to him on this podcast, he's nobody thinks that ten times better in real life.

00:13:58
Speaker 1: You know what Cynthia did though, she baked eleven different types of cookies. She spent an entire day, entire week and brought in eleven different types of selections of cookies for everyone in makeup and hair and production to have. And that's the kind of woman that Cynthia's. All right, we got to get you to your in laws. Merry Christmas to you, Cynthia and to everyone listening. We will be back in the audio feed in on YouTube this week. Yes, I'm calling it.

00:14:30
Speaker 2: I'm calling my shot.

00:14:31
Speaker 1: We're gonna talk about the Christmas games. We're gonna recap that. I'm gonna have Will Gavin from Talk Sport. We'll do that on Friday afternoon, So have a look for that and we will see that