944: Week 11 Sleepers

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Speaker 1: This is the lad podcast with your host JJ zacherathas J J. Zacher Reeve. What's up everyone, It's JJ Zachary Sin in this episode nine hundred and forty four of the Late Round Fantasy Football podcast sponsored by Underdog. Thanks for tuning in. On last week's sleeper episode, I called out Aaron Rodgers and Daniel Jones as streamers and that didn't work out. Andre Josi Bosh didn't do much in a great matchup either. I got the Saints wide receivers wrong and Ray Davis only saw three touches. Russell Wilson and Jalen Warren worked out, though Ricky Piersoll was a strong play and Rashad Bateman was a good player to call out. Now, the last month of this show hasn't been fantastic, but there were at least some good picks in there last week. We're now on to week eleven. Now, before I get to the sleepers this week, I just wanted to remind you to check out Underdog. Over an Underdog, you can play pick them a Champions mode, and of course you can do snake rafts each week too. Just looking at the lobby, there are literally over twenty drafts that you can join right now for this week slate. To check it all out, head to Underdog Fantasy dot com and sign up with promo code Late Round. That'll get you a nice deposit offer, and it will also get you a link to my rest of season rankings. That's if you sign up with promo code Late Round, make a deposit, and start playing. Now, let's get to these sleepers. We'll kick things off as usual with players rostered in ten to fifty percent of Yahoo leagues who you might want to start this week. I've got four quarterback streamers in this tier. I think all of them are actually pretty strong. Bo Nix is one of them. He's average over twenty points per game over his last six and he's hit thirty six or more rushing yards and three of his last five. He gets Atlanta this week. The Falcons are a top ten matchup for quarterbacks when looking at justin fantasy points allowed. The Broncos also have the best matchup in the league this week when looking at how much pressure defenses generate against them versus how much press sure the Falcons generate. It's not surprising to see Denver with a strong twenty three point total. They're in a good spot. I talked about Russell Wilson on the fifteen Transaction Show, so naturally he's gonna get a shout out here as well. The Steelers get the Ravens. Baltimore has been the third best matchup for quarterbacks this season by justin points allowed, and quarterbacks against Baltimore have thrown for seventy seven more yards than their season long averages. That's by far the highest adjusted passing yards allowed mark in the league. The Steelers have a totally fined twenty two and a half point team total two. Baltimore is a team that teams are throwing on. I'd expect the same for Pittsburgh this weekend. I think you could even look at Drake May this week. He's got a Rams team that's just a little bit above average as a matchup when looking at justin fantasy points allowed, and there's definitely some fear that the Rams are gonna be able to get to him. They actually ranked second this year in pressure rate generated the Patriots. They haven't been great at limiting that pressure. That could allow May, though to run a little bit more than usual, and we know that he can escape the pocket and run. He's averaging forty four rushing yards per game in games that he started and finished this year. That baseline has allowed him to score between twelve and twenty one points in each of his four starts. His only real bad game was last week. But last week he faced Chicago. That's a team that ranks as the toughest opponent for quarterbacks this year. I think Wilson and Nicks are better plays, but May works as a deeper one, and then people probably won't trust this recommendation as much. But Aaron Rodgers, you guys, he's still out there in fifty three percent of Yahoo leaks, and he gets the Colts. I know that he didn't come through and what looked like a decent matchup last week against Arizona, but Indianapolis is an even better went on paper. They rank as the seventh best matchup for quarterbacks by justin Fantasy points allowed. Rogers had been averaging seventeen points per game across the last month before his Week ten poop fest against Arizona, so it's not like he's incapable of making some noise in fantasy. With a near twenty four point imply team total, I think we might need to have a short memory and look at Rogers as an okay streamer this week. Now, moving on to running back, let's start with another fifteen transactions player. That's Odric Estime. Now, I'm not sure how much receiving work Estime is gonna get after a twenty one percent route share in Week ten, but Estime had a Broncos season high eighty two percent running back rush share against the Chiefs, and while he didn't produce a ton, we have to recognize that Kansas City is by far the toughest matchup in football for running backs. Atlanta's actually pretty good against running backs two at least by justin fantasy points allowed. But they're a better matchup, and like I said with bo Nicks, there are reasons to be optimistic about the Broncos this week. The bottom line is that if Estimate continues seeing this kind of workload, more fantasy points are going to be scored. Taj Spears is kind of interesting this week. He finally returned to the Titans in Week ten, he had a few weeks off. He saw forty four percent of the team's running back rushes and a pretty solid thirteen percent target shair he ran a route on forty two percent of their dropbacks. It's not a bad number, especially for sort of the one B in his offense. We've seen the Titans at times this year deploy Taj Spears as their negative game script back that could hit This week. They get the Vikings and Minnesota is about a six point favorite. The Vikings have also allowed the sixth highest adjusted target share this season to running backs. That plays right into what Spears has done best so far in the NFL. Now, you should definitely prefer Tony Pollard, but Taj Spears isn't seeing a horrible workload himself. The last time we saw the Browns, Jerome Ford was coming off an injury. He ended up seeing a six and a half percent target share and about ten percent of the team's running back rushes, but his role participation wasn't that bad. In that game, he ran a route on fifty four percent of Cleveland's dropbacks. Now, I'm not sure that we can assume some massive negative game script this week against the Saints, but New Orleans have been gashed on the ground this year. They've allowed the fifth most suggested points to the position, and they rank well below average and adjusted rushing yards allowed to running backs. I think clearer negative game scripts may benefit Forward more than a matchup like this, but we're not going to bat a thousand when it comes to predicting how games are gonna unfold. If you're desperate, the matchup is at least there, and his usage is not a total zero. The last running back in this tier is Gus Edwards. He's sort of similar to Odric Estima, and then he's not gonna see that much work through the air more than likely. Except with Estim, we at least have some unknown upside with Edwards. We know it won't be the case. We have years of data pointing to Gus Edwards not being a receiving threat regardless. The Chargers get the Bengals this week Cincinnati. They've been more vulnerable through the air than on the ground this season, and it is projected to be a decently high scoring game. The Chargers have a decent imply team total, so if you need a body, Edwards could be that body. He should see ten or so touches to wide receiver. Jerry Judy is still under that fifty percent mark, so let's talk about him and Jamis Winston's two starts. So over Jerry Judy's last two games, he's seen target shares of twenty percent and twenty four percent. That's led to PPR totals of thirteen and fourteen. He's run a round on every single Cleveland Brown's drop back during that time. So we're getting a player who's seeing above average target shairs, getting above average usage, and he's in an above average to average matchup against the Saints team that ranks fifteenth and adjusted points allowed to wide receivers. If that doesn't define this sleeper show, I don't know what does now. I didn't think that we would see Ricky Pearsall be eligible for this show anymore, but at the time in this recording, he's still not above that fifty percent mark, so you should use him. Pearsall has now seen target shares of sixteen percent, sixteen percent, and eighteen percent in his three games this year, and we can project him to see like a seventy to eighty percent route share this week for San Francisco, the forty nine Ers get the Seahawks. Seattle's defense has been kind of rough across the board this year. They're well blown average in both adjusted passing yards and running back rushing yards allowed, and they rank as almost a top ten matchup for wide receivers and adjusted fantasy points allowed, So pearce all's fine on a team with a high implied team total. Quentin Johnson's target shairs haven't been like fantastic. He actually hasn't seen a target share of twenty percent since week two, but this past week he saw a rout participation of ninety six percent. He's getting run and like I said with Gus Edwards, this doesn't profile as a super low scoring game given you've got Justin Herbert and Joe Burrow going up against one another, and Cincinnati is a good matchup. They're the eighth best matchup for wide receivers by justin points allowed, and teams are throwing to wide receivers at an above average rate when they face the Bengals. So Johnson's an ok play. The Mario Douglas is a high floor option as long as Drake May is under center. We've now had three games of May and Douglas where May finished the game and Douglas wasn't sick aka where Douglas played his typical role. In those games, Douglas is averaging almost a twenty five percent target share per game rate, and he hasn't fallen below the twenty percent mark the matchup this week against the Rams. Out of the slot. It's not necessarily ideal because most teams target the outside against them, but he's being used enough to get a call out on Today's show. And then, finally, a wide receiver, I'm gonna go back to Noah Brown. Brown saw season best ninety seven percent route share in Week ten against the Steelers. He's now seen target shairs of eighteen percent, thirty two percent, and twenty two percent over his last three games. The Eagles have been really good defensively this season for fantasy purposes, and that could be a problem for Washington in Week eleven. There's no doubt, but Brown is almost exclusively a perimeter player, and the Eagles ranked twenty seventh in adjusted slot target share allowed, meaning teams are typically thrown to the boundary against them. That could benefit Noah Brown. Now moving on to tight end hasn't been producing that well, but Hunter Henry is still seeing good peripherals. He said a twenty percent target chair in three of his last four. He's been at seventeen percent in all four of those games. Now he gets a Rams team that ranks favorable for tight ends by adjusted points allowed, so he's not a bad option. And then I'm gonna go back to John new Smith too. The Dolphins get a Raiders team this week that ranks tenth and adjusted target share allowed to tight ends and fifth and adjusted points allowed. Like it or not, the Dolphins are using John new Smith. He's averaging a twenty two percent target chair per game rate over his last five This is a really good spot for him. This next tier of players consist of guys rostered in fewer than ten percent of Yahoo leagues. As I say each week, this is where we start to dig deep. Now I don't have a quarterback in this tier, but I do have one running back. I can't say that I love him, that's why he's rostered in so few leagues, but we can talk about him. It's Jalen Wright. He ended up seeing twenty nine percent of my Amy's running back rushes in Week ten. That's basically a high for him. With de von ah Chan and raheem mostered healthy. The Dolphins get the Raiders. Like I just talked about, Vegas is number one, not very good, so a nice positive game script is possible, but they're number two, one of the worst teams and adjusted points allowed to running backs and adjusted rushing yards allowed to running backs. If the game script goes favorably for Miami, Wright could get some work now moving on to wide receiver, A much more reasonable option is Elijah Moore. Over Cleveland's last two games with Jamis Winston, Moore's run about seventy one percent of his routes out of the slot New Orleans, their opponent ranked seventh and adjusted slot target share allowed this year. They've also given up a below average yards per rout run rate to that area of the field. More has seen target shairs over his last two of twenty nine percent and nineteen percent. There's reason to believe that he can produce this week. Kayshawn Boody is another one. I already talked about de Mario Douglas against the Rams. I think the better matchup, the end individual matchup, is with Kaishawn Boody. He's gonna see those outside targets that I was talking about earlier. Booty ran a route on a one hundred percent of the team's dropbacks last week that led to a twenty six percent target share. If he gets close to that in a much more favorable matchup this week, he should be good. And then I also have Nick westbrook Akine here. Westbrook Akine has seen routehares of ninety five percent, ninety seven percent, and one hundred percent since DeAndre Hopkins left the Titans. That's led to a target share per game rate of fifteen percent. Now is that a good target share for that much running? Not really? But the Titans get a Minnesota team this week that's allowed the fifth most adjusted points to wide receivers this year. They've given up a top five number and adjusted passing yards allowed. So maybe a negative game script hits and the Titans are forced to throw a lot. Would we be surprised if that happened? Probably? Not. That would benefit Westbrook A. Kine because we know that he's unlikely gonna like take over this game. And then two tight for you in this tear. Will Disley is something I called out earlier this week because he's essentially just taken over that tight end one role for the Chargers. LA has a top ten match up against Cincinnati and a game where there's a chance that they're forced to throw the ball more than usual, So Disley's a good one. And then how about Davis Allen. I almost talked about Allen on the ten Trends episode, but after seeing a forty five percent route participation in week nine, it jumped up to eighty eight percent this past week. He had a fourteen percent target share as a result, that was a season high. He's playing as the rams top pass catching tight end. Now New England is not some special opponent, but they're not a bad one either. It's just that Alan getting this kind of run makes him a deep sleeper. Now on defense, hopefully you got Green Bay and Miami off the waiver wire before they jumped over that fifty percent mark. And then, as much as I'm talking up the Patriots this week because I like Drake May, I don't mind to Mario Douglas. I like Keayshaan Boody, you know, within context, I do think the Rams defense has a chance to generate a lot of pressure this weekend, so I like them as a streaming defense. Now we're on to Underdog to make a couple of picks. Again, I'm focused only on using players from this show, so I'm limiting myself a bit but here goes. We'll start with Russell Wilson going higher than two hundred and twenty three and a half passing yards. Again, Baltimore typically sees their opponents throw for seventy seven more yards in their season long averages. Russell Wilson has been above this mark and two of his three games, so I do like this pick. Then I'm also going to say higher than thirty three and a half receiving yards for Kaisham Bouti, and then one more, John news Smith higher than thirty two and a half receiving yards. He's been over that mark in four of his last five. He's been below forty five yards just once during that time. If you want to join me with those selections, remember I just head to Underdog Fantasy dot com and use promo code late Round when you sign up. That's it for today's show, though, thanks to all of you for listening. If you get subscribed to the Late Round Fantasy Football podcast, make sure you are by shooting for it pretty much anywhere podcast can be found, and don't forget to follow me on Twitter at LATEROUNDQB. I'm also on Blue Sky Now also at LATEROUNDQB, and check out the YouTube channel, the Late Round Fantasy Football YouTube channel. That's YouTube dot com slash at Late Round FF. Thanks for listening everyone, I'll be back in your ears tomorrow with a Mailbag episode and then another episode of Late Round Perspectives. I'll talk to you then