Late-Round Perspectives: Anthony Amico

00:00:00
Speaker 1: Anthony Amiko is a fantasy football analyst who does dynasty content for Establish the Run and projections for football guys. He's a math teacher, a high school defensive coordinator, and there may not be anyone else on earth who likes to bet the NFL draft more. These are his Late Round perspectives. This episode is sponsored my Underdog Fantasy. I know a lot of you guys already play over there, but if you don't, you definitely have to check out their Best Ball drafts. You draft a team, which is honestly the best part of fantasy football, and then that's it. There's no trading, no wayver wire, no lineupsetting. Your roster is optimized each week based on player performance. I'm gonna be doing a lot of content on Best Ball this season, so make sure you're signed up and ready to draft for when that content drops. Just head to Underdog Fantasy dot Com or download the Underdog Fantasy app. When you sign up, make sure you use promo code Late Round to get a deposit match up to one hundred dollars. That's promo code Late Round. Now back to the show.

00:01:10
Speaker 2: We DM and stuff a little bit some times about prospects, but it's it's nice to see in the flesh and talk this out.

00:01:15
Speaker 1: Yeah, man, yeah, are you I know that you love betting the draft probably more than anyone else that I see on Twitter. Are you, like, are you in a phase because you do it more than I do. Are you in a phase where, like the things that you're hearing, are you reacting to it strongly or do you think that we're still in a noise phase. We're recording this on Tuesday for anyone listening, We're recording this on Tuesday, So we saw forty eight hours until a little over forty eight hours until the draft.

00:01:42
Speaker 2: Yeah, I think this is where some of that smoke starts to become fire. Like, I think it's a little more legit the week of the draft, So I'm definitely paying attention, and I mean most of the positions are in, so we're kind of we're hoping for confirmation bias and then hoping to react on anything that that maybe doesn't go our way. Yeah.

00:02:00
Speaker 1: Yeah, it feels like the whole draft is like coming down to like how teams view JJ McCarthy Like, at the end of the day, is that is that right? Like do you like or do you think that he's gonna jump like a Drake may or Jayden Daniels somehow.

00:02:13
Speaker 2: I mean, I still think he can go too, Like I just I feel like I don't know, like a twenty one year old guy with like advanced good advanced numbers and like won a national championship, Like, yeah, is he really going to be out of it?

00:02:28
Speaker 3: Like I don't know, Like I just right, So that's.

00:02:31
Speaker 1: I feel weird about that too. I know that we're not really I sent Anthony a show sheet and everything, and well we'll get to all that kind of stuff. But like the McCarthy thing is strange to me because it doesn't feel like he has that bad of a profile, Like like I think that there's like this contingent that just assumes that he's terrible because they didn't throw the ball that much. But if you think about like what a front office would want, he has like the raw skills like that, the physical the physique, the build that the age is on his side, and I guar and tu the dude interview as well, right, like he's like he's like a football guy. So is that sort of like the perspective that you're coming from with the potential of JJ McCarthy going top two or top three.

00:03:12
Speaker 3: Yeah, it's just like a super easy sell.

00:03:14
Speaker 2: I mean, this is a guy, like the report came out like last week that he was like calling recruits and being like, you know, if you want to party, don't come to Michigan because I'm like, how do you not love that? You know?

00:03:24
Speaker 1: Like right right? Yeah, like as a football guy, I mean as like a normal human being, Like okay, that's different, but as like a football guy running a football team. That's exactly what you want to hear, is that kind of thing?

00:03:35
Speaker 2: Right?

00:03:35
Speaker 3: Definitely?

00:03:36
Speaker 1: Anyway, So you, like you said, you and I we've DMed like a lot through the years, especially like early on in my prospect model building and stuff like that. You were kind of doing the same sort of things and messing around with with numbers and stuff like that, and like you were someone that I would go to a lot and seeing if you tested this, if you looked at this, and I remember, like, this is gonna date ourselves a little bit because like, like it's it's a it's a well known metric at this point, but like yards per team pass attempt, like that was one of the big AHA moments for me with wide receiver evaluation. That was something that you had introduced me to. I remember talking about it on the show a little bit. This is probably in like twenty nineteen, but I'm curious, you know, if anything's changed on your end with your prospecting, the way that you handle all that and let everyone else know sort of how you go about the scouting process.

00:04:25
Speaker 2: Yeah, for me, I try to get a little bit of everything. I mean, I certainly don't consider myself a scout. I mean, I guess I'm not really like like my degree is in math, but I'm not like, you know, I'm a teacher. It's not like my day to day I'm crunching numbers all day. But like, I try to get a little bit of everything, so you know, I am looking at the numbers, the stuff that some of the stuff that you talk about, you.

00:04:48
Speaker 3: Know, on your written work and on this show, and.

00:04:54
Speaker 2: You know, I still want to watch a little bit. And it's not like I'm not expecting to something and be like, oh, he's the guy, like you know, but I just want to have a good sense of like where players.

00:05:07
Speaker 3: Win and kind of how they're used.

00:05:10
Speaker 2: And it's to honestly great because I feel like sources like PFF and other places like SIS, like they've charted a lot of this stuff now too, so you can kind of look at it from that angle. So it's really really helpful, I think, to kind of get everything, especially I think this year at the quarterbacks, like you know, pressure to sack has been like a big deal, like we even have that like ten years ago. So I like to get kind of a full view there, and then I'm really trying to push everything through right now. What I'm using are like comp models, so I'm not really as much trying to get like a number that just says like player good, player bad. I want more to see like a range of outcomes where it's like okay, like without even paying attention to the the success like within the model itself, what players would we tag this player with, And then we can kind of use our own like, uh, I guess our own insight on like how well how do those players turn out? What does that tell me? How does that inform me about this player's range of outcomes? So I'm trying to get as full of picture as I can, and then you know, at the end of the day, obviously we need to see where these players get drafted and.

00:06:23
Speaker 3: You take from there.

00:06:24
Speaker 1: You know, you're not you're not giving yourself enough prayer. You're you' aren't you a defensive coordinator?

00:06:28
Speaker 2: Yeah?

00:06:28
Speaker 1: Like like like you like you know, like you know ball. This isn't like a oh yeah I'm this I'm this math teacher that only looks at um like you know ball. I mean like this is this isn't like a like you know, a situation where you're just crunching numbers all day long. Like I I think having that combination, having that knowledge has helped you throughout the years. Uh you know with this stuff for sure? Do you do you have any any obvious like blind spots with your process and the way that you do things. Do you think I'm.

00:06:55
Speaker 2: Still a little bit of a sucker for like some of these thresholds and and the breakouts stuff, which like I think it definitely matters, but I am concerned that with like the nil and all that stuff, that it may become less important. And now you sent a newsletter out about this actually, so yeah, I'm glad we're talking about it, but like, yeah, I don't want to miss that, Like I don't want to be so focused on the stuff that I thought was really good five years ago, that like.

00:07:22
Speaker 3: Now I'm passing on guys who that shouldn't be passing on.

00:07:25
Speaker 1: Yeah, I think that's a really good call out. And like you said, I sent out that newsletter talked about how early declared status is becoming rarer in general, we're just not seeing it. And I focus on wide receiver because I think age adjustine stuff is just more important at wide receiver and more interesting at wide receiver. But yeah, I mean, like like we're seeing it this year. All of the early declare wide receivers this year are gonna go I mean they could go in the top fifty, all of them, right, Like, like we're not gonna see the Stefan Diggs, the Amen Ross Saint Brown, the Gabe Davises of the world who went day three with the early declare status. And I think a lot of that has to do with, like you said, the nil stuff with the name, image and likeness, you know, these guys kind of having reason to stay in school and to continue to make money and then hopefully also improve their draft stock all while doing so. I think the low key thing though, man, that's like not been brought up enough. I've tried to bring it up on Twitter and like random comments and stuff like that, and I wrote about it in the in the newsletter as well. But and I would love to hear your thoughts like transferring right like like we have. I keep going back to Jayden Reid as the example, just because he's easy, but like Reid goes from Western Michigan takes a year off because he transfers to Michigan State, and back then you had to take that year, and now you don't have to take that year. And so when a player like put yourself in their shoes, right, like, when a player is sitting there contemplating whether or not to declare early for the NFL draft, they're out, is not just oh, I could stay here and maybe make one hundred thousand dollars playing ball while also trying to improve my draft stock. Now it's like, oh, I could just go to another school, maybe perform better, and then obviously improve my draft stock doing that, but I'm continuing to play. I'm not taking a year off. Do you think that that also could end up sort of changing the formula a little bit of what these age adjusted production profiles look like.

00:09:12
Speaker 3: Yeah, definitely.

00:09:12
Speaker 2: And the part of that too, is that now we're seeing the guys transfer even before like they could possibly declare. I mean there's guys like that in this class obviously, where it's like didn't produce at all or couldn't get on the field, and then now all of a sudden they go somewhere where there's targets available and now all of a sudden they have a breakout or they're productive, and it's kind of like, well, what do you make of that?

00:09:33
Speaker 3: You know, you have to kind of.

00:09:34
Speaker 2: Like evaluate where they're coming from and where they went to. And there's a lot of context that I think we have to really be cognizant of with this stuff now.

00:09:43
Speaker 3: And you know, we've always, I think thought about it.

00:09:46
Speaker 2: We've always thought about things like you know, teammate quality and all that stuff. But we're just seeing like way way more packed and again we'll stick with receiver, but just like packed receiver rooms where players are leaving, and it's it's kind of hard to suss that what that means.

00:10:03
Speaker 1: Sometimes, Yeah, it's ridiculous. I was writing up the profiles this year for the Prospect Guide and it's like, like literally half the players that I wrote up transferred at one point in their collegiate career, like like Romadunza is. Basically the Washington guys are like rarities, or at least, you know, Roma Doonza was. But yeah, I mean, it's it's crazy just to see how the landscapes changed. And I do think that, you know, we can't be too dramatic in shifting the way that we look at age adjustin production in my opinion, right like, at the end of the day, someone breaking out as a sophomore is going to be the same as it was fifteen twenty years ago. But I do think that we need to be a little bit more open minded about five year guys coming out, four year guys coming out, and you know, basically weighg that those seasons, those later seasons properly, which is why I was excited, Like I didn't even do this on purpose, but the breakout score metric that I created this offseason, like really a lot with that because it doesn't necessarily ding a player like Xavier Lagette the same way that it might ding him in another sort of model, like breakout age type model where it's like, oh, the dude, you know, it's twenty three. Whenever he finally got his breakout, but if it was a strong enough breakout, like if he really did what he did, you know, his final year, then it doesn't matter as much because it was just that good. You've also done a lot of work through the years. I talked about this at the top in predicting just how the draft might unfold, which is why I wanted to do this Perspectives episode a little bit earlier in the weeks that people can listen to it, you know, before round one. Do you have any tips for listeners on sort of what to pay attention to and what to just kind of ignore as noise as we approach the draft?

00:11:45
Speaker 2: Yeah, I mean I think you have to like really limit what you listen to because there's just so much out there. So I'm focused on, like I've been calling them like the one seeds this this cycle, but like Albert Breer, Daniel Jeremiah, Charlie Campbell, Tod McShay, Like, if it doesn't come from one of those four people, I'm not really trying to give it as much attention. And if it does come from one of those four people, I'm trying to pay attention a little more. And I think just in general, Like the last couple of years, information has been really really difficult to come by in terms of like who's going to go where and stuff like that, because the league knows like a people are gambling on this thing, and like we don't want to have a lack of integrity, and also like this is our show, you know, Like how fun is it when you show up and you already know like what the first.

00:12:32
Speaker 3: Few picks are going to be.

00:12:33
Speaker 2: So I think that there's a little bit of mystery there just off the top. And then like you know, if you're looking at players that aren't going to go on Thursday, you know the beasts from Dane Brugler is like an amazing resource, and you know Jeremiah has his top one fifty. So it's good to kind of see, like, you know, I we'll talk about later in the show, like Johnny Wilson's the guy that I love, but I can only put him so high because it doesn't really seem like anybody else likes him.

00:12:58
Speaker 3: Like I don't know where's gonna get drafted?

00:13:00
Speaker 1: Right right? Are you?

00:13:01
Speaker 3: Then?

00:13:02
Speaker 1: Do you find yourself like when you are looking at Betts with the draft, are you looking at more Day one stuff. Is that is that the stuff where you feel most comfortable with or are you using your intuition a little bit and you're able to say, yeah, you know, I know this guy. I know the markets are softer with day two, day three because people just aren't paying attention to those players as much.

00:13:23
Speaker 2: Yeah, I mean it's like ninety five percent day one because that's I mean, that's what most of what's available is. And then you can get like, you know, like Troy Franklin has like an over under, you know, because but like I don't even know how to play that because I'm just like, yeahs as little certainty as there is on day one, there's even less on day two. So I'm kind of like, you know, it's hard to play those things with a lot of certainty.

00:13:45
Speaker 1: Yeah, all right, let's look at at how your ranking guys.

00:13:48
Speaker 3: Right now.

00:13:48
Speaker 1: I sent you this DM. I was like, I know that I'm going on for your rankings with this, and I hate rankings with a passion, just because I don't think they give you enough detail. But fortunately we can at least like have the conversation about the detail, you know what I mean. So I want to ask you you currently have Drake May ahead of Jaden Daniels in your super Flex rankings. I guess in regular single quarterback rankings too, the consensus has that flipped. I have Daniels ahead of May as well. So I'm really really curious to hear your why you have May, you know, ahead of Daniels. What it is about May that you like?

00:14:22
Speaker 2: Yeah, I mean, and I'll try to be more pro May than anti Daniels, just because I that's just generally how I prefer to view things. But sure, like I look at Drake May as someone who first of all, can run, and I think that that's like something I feel like doesn't get mentioned as much with him, where he's not going to provide the same rushing ceiling as Jaden Daniels, but he could absolutely be in like that next group of players, you know, maybe not quite like a Josh Allen, but like old school Andrew Luck like that kind of like you can get some rushing production there. But he's also sou for young, and I think that the age stuff does kind of matter a little bit at quarterback. I mean, if you look at like the five year guys, and again, like like you said at the top of the show, there's gonna be more of those guys coming. I mean there's like three in this class alone, but really the only one that's like done really really well is Joe Burrow, and other than that, it's pretty hard to find the guys. You know, like Paker Mayfield is the first pick, and he's been like all right, like he's at his moments. But you know, if you're talking about dudes and like that's really what I'm looking for, Like you really only have Burrow, So you know, I think that May's age does help him. He's been a multi year starter, so he still has a lot of experience. Like this isn't like a Mitchtubisky one year situation. Like he's played for two years. And if you just look at guys who have historically like throwing the ball a decent amount, have a high A dot and haven't taken a ton of sacks, it's it's a it's a really good list of players. I mean, we're talking about guys like you know, Herbert and a bunch of guys that have been super successful. Now it's also like a very small list, so I you know, I don't want to just say like, oh, like this is like one hundred percent type deal. But when I look at May, I guess I just feel a little bit better that he's going to hit than someone like Jayden, and I think that the payoff is still going to be quite good, you know, like the payoff for Jayden. I think he probably is better just because of the rushing. But I just find that as a five year guy, as a skinnier guy, I mean, Anthony Richardson got hurt three times last year and he's thirty pounds heavier than being Daniels, I just.

00:16:38
Speaker 3: Have some more concerns. I guess that he's going to pan out.

00:16:41
Speaker 1: Yeah. Not only that, but Daniels is not nearly as good as like a Lamar Jackson at not taking hits. He's more like an RG three. That's what Matt Waldman had talked about on perspectives too, is that he's more like that RG three type. And that's a little bit frightening as well, you know, with a with a smaller frame. Let me ask you this, if, like, do you care if goes to New England and Daniels goes to Washington, which I think we would probably objectively say at this moment, you know, New England could do something crazy in the draft, like trade for someone, what have you. But situationally, I think we'd say that Jade Daniels would be in the better situation. Would that sway you at all? And putting Daniels ahead of May?

00:17:19
Speaker 2: No, I don't think that those I don't think that those landing spots are going to matter to me that much. I think the Minnesota spot matters a lot. Like if the draft gets weird and it's like, you know, Kayla McCarthy May, and then all of a sudden Minnesota trades up for Daniels, then I'm like, Okay, yeah, you know, like this is that's just like so far and away at the best spot to me, between the receivers and the coaching and dome, you know, like.

00:17:43
Speaker 3: It's just then I would definitely make a change there.

00:17:46
Speaker 1: Well, then let's say this, so we talked about McCarthy already to open up the show. Let's say that McCarthy goes to Minnesota, which actually, you know, he's that's he's the favorite, Like that's the favorite team for him right now. So let's say McCarthy goes to Minnesota. Is McCarthy QB two in this class?

00:18:02
Speaker 3: Well, to pull the curtain back a little bit.

00:18:04
Speaker 2: I mean, Leoni, we have him six, and Leoni is already trying to get me to move him down. So I don't know, I don't think I'm gonna be able to get him much higher. But yeah, I mean I think at least, like from a tiering perspective, like if I'm looking at rookie drafts now, at least yeah, I'm and I know majority people are drafting after but I think most people are reviewing it as like you know, those top three quarterbacks obviously the receivers, Bowers, and then McCarthy. And I think that like, certainly, if you're tiering this, McCarthy has to get into that group just because he's gonna have the best chance to succeed. And like at the end of the day, like especially in super flex, like you need a guy that's that's going to be successful, you know.

00:18:45
Speaker 1: Yeah. Yeah, I also think there's just like there's so much volatility to quarterback performance that I would imagine that just strictly from a value perspective. Now, you might not be able to be nimble enough to like trade into this in your rookie draft and stuff, because it's really to just do that right, But like, strictly from a value perspective, I would imagine if McCarthy goes to Minnesota, I would rather have him where he would get drafted in rookie drafts than May and Daniels where they get drafted in rookie drafts, right, like I because I would, I would imagine that he's still gonna go because people have take lock. People just don't like JJ McCarthy. I've said all along, I think that he's amazing because of his first name and the eliteness of the first name, and so look, if I can get a JJMI squad, I'm gonna get a JJMI squad. But but like, if he gets drafted be in a superflex format, and let's say even a single tight or a non tight end premium format, if he's getting drafted behind a brock Bowers in that environment, like to me, you know, obviously tight end premium maybe a little bit of a different beast. But to me, in that case, it just seems like McCarthy would be a smash. And I think that that would end up happening probably a lot and pretty frequently because people just don't like JJ McCarthy. So to me, The big thing with McCarthy as like that pivot. I know we' talked about it earlier, but like, if it's Minnesota, man, I really think that he could end up just being like a massive, massive value in these rookie drafts. Can you trade into that that's a different story, but I do think at the end of the day, he could be a nice value there.

00:20:12
Speaker 3: Yeah, I agree. I mean he's getting the Zach Wilson treatment.

00:20:14
Speaker 2: You know, where it's just kind of like, yeah, we don't like this guy, so we're gonna push him down. And like, obviously you know that kind of proved to be right. But I just think that you can't do that every time and expect it to go the way you want.

00:20:25
Speaker 1: Right right, And look, McCarthy might not even go in the top ten. We have no idea right now, but you know, if he does, if that does happen, that means that a team bought into the talent. He's walking into a situation where we've seen guys thrive in that system and be very, very effective. And then he obviously has some of the best weapons in the league if he were to go there. So I think that we have to take all of that into consideration. Let's move on to wide receiver. A lot of people have a big three, some people have a big two. I personally have a big two, but sort of like a like a one beat, like if they're one a's a Doonese's kind of a one bee. But I still don't have him in that tier. How are you looking at the big three of Marvin Harrison Junior Malik Neighbors in Romadunesa is a donsay part of that tier for you.

00:21:07
Speaker 2: It's it's kind of tough because like you're saying, like there's really nothing that I could think of that would make me want to take him ahead of Marvin Harrison or Milik Neighbors. But I also think he's like clearly better than the next group. So you know, I think a one B as you described it is probably best, Like you know, I mean Marvin Harrison, my gosh, like has there ever been like more of a we feel really good about this wide receiver.

00:21:35
Speaker 1: Like a clean just a clean profile all.

00:21:37
Speaker 2: The way around, Like yeah, take I mean, and that's even before you get to the fact that likes that's all our famer, you know what I mean, Like just like all like the production and all Agan justin stuff is really good with him, So I have a hard time kind of putting anybody ahead of him. I know that Neighbors for some teams is the first receiver and he's extremely explosive. I think you could argue that maybe his ceiling is a little bit higher. Dunes is just like super solid like everything you read, super solid guy, super solid producer. Like you know, I don't think that his bus rate is super high, but I also am not sure that he is. Like in three years, we're saying, oh, he's the top seven Dynasty receiver, you know, Yeah, so I think that that kind of knocks him a little bit below those guys. But again, like clearly ahead for me. Then of like you know, Brian Thomas or whoever you have next.

00:22:26
Speaker 1: Is it Doonesay spitting out decent comps? And I want to ask you this too. It's sort of a deeper question with the comp stuff that you're looking at. But like you know, you mentioned we talked about how age is changing and the breakouts are changing and such a Donsay has Actually he's not going to be twenty two until June, which is good, but you know, he's not an early declar receiver and when you look at like, is declare status part of that comp process for you or is it ignoring that more and looking more at age?

00:22:56
Speaker 2: Yeah, So I include both so that I can get as good a picture as I can. And what makes it, dude, say tough, is just that, like you do get you get a lot of different stuff kind of like depending on like where your credit him with a breakout, because I'm still using like that thirty percent you know, dominate air threshold, and he actually like doesn't get there when you like, you know, like a year two. I think he misses it by like point four, like point oh four or something like something super super small.

00:23:30
Speaker 3: So I kind of just ran it twice.

00:23:32
Speaker 2: And I was cheating a little bit because I'm like, I mean, everyone thinks this guy's gonna be good, Like there's no way that his sure, you know, his ceiling is like the worst or you know, whatever it is. So it worked out where the comps obviously get way better when you credit him for the for the earlier breakout, but the numbers were still pretty good honestly, no matter what. Like the guys who were later breakouts and ended up being good, some of those guys do appear, you know, Eric Decker, Brandon, I you, Rashie, Rice, Jordan Nelson, Like you get those comps in for a dune day, and then obviously if you credit with the breakout, a lot of those players get better just because you're I mean, I'm kind of fudging it to make him look a little bit better. But yeah, the comps kind of like him no matter what. But the picture is obviously way better if you credit him with that earlier breakout.

00:24:21
Speaker 1: Yeah. Look, he's not like the cleanest profile in the world, like a Marvin Harrison at the end of the day. Like I've said this before in the show. You know, I do think early declare status matters as like a standalone if you were to only look at early declare status and say, do you want an early declare or a non early declare. Yeah, take the early declare because draft capital would hypothetically follow that. But also, you know, in the next guy I want to talk about this too, which is ad Night Mitchell. You know, dounsay needed his final season, his senior season, to really give us like the big big year at least from like a yards per team pass attempt standpoint right, And yeah, we can give it all this context and talk about his teammates and talk about this and that, but I do that that's still a vital piece to his profile and that he needed that, and that's a year that, yes, his age is his age, but that's still an extra season of collegiate football that Marvin Harrison and Elik Neighbors never had. And so I do think we have to at least you know, that's that's basically the main reason I have a Dunza below those two guys. I mean, the the other two are better in the prospect model, and like that's what separates them for sure, in a more concrete way. But at the same time, I do think that it's easy to just be like, yeah, he got an extra year to produce like that, that's fine for me to say, I'm gonna separate them, put him in his own tier and say that Malik Neighbors and Marvin Harrison Junior are just better prospects. But you know, I'm not gonna be shocked if a Dunze balls out, because I think he is a very very good prospect. He'd probably be you know, the wide receiver one in most other classes. But a guy that I just brought brought up was Ady Mitchell. Where you know Mitchell is declaring her he has like an opposite. It's like if if Roma Dunze would have come out last year and had I guess worse. You know, production metrics you across the board, but you know Mitchell's coming out early and he has some of the worst age adjusted metrics that you'll find from like a first round wide receiver. I brought this up on the show plenty of times. Worst yards per route run, best season yards per out run in this year's class. If he gets drafted in the first round, which is looking more and more likely, he'll have the worst yards per route run since PFF started charting, which goes back to twenty fourteen. He'll have the worst yards per out run of any first round wide receiver in that timeframe. And he's like half a yard lower than Zay Flowers, who is the next one on that list. Like it's it's just it's rough, like he does not have It's hard to paint this as ad nai Mitchell has a good production profile, right, Like his production profile is bad, But you haven't met wide receiver five at the moment, So talk to me about Ady Mitchell make sort of the bowl case for him.

00:26:52
Speaker 2: Yeah, I mean everything you said is concerning. And when I started this, I actually had him a little lower. But as I was kind of going through this, I'm like, Okay, Like from a highth weight speed perspective, he's really good compared to a lot of the guys that are below him. You know, like when I think about like Lad macconky and Troy Franklin, and then you know, obviously you go further down the board. I'm like, I don't know if any of those guys I could forecast as being like the top dog for their team and having a high ceiling. And I think that Mitchell has that ceiling. But I think his range of outcomes is just super super wide. And when I look at this class, so obviously it's gonna be a great it's gonna be a great case that I'm gonna make the case for Adie Mitchell without even really talking about Adie Mitchell. So it's it's always a good sign. But like, because the top of the class is so good, you're kind of not paying the premium that you would for the ceiling in a previous year. So you know, if he's a late first round rookie pick or an early second round rookie.

00:28:08
Speaker 3: Pick, Like.

00:28:11
Speaker 2: That's kind of awesome for the ceiling, you know, and that pick and he's gonna miss a lot, but a lot of those picks in that range are going to miss a lot.

00:28:21
Speaker 3: You know.

00:28:21
Speaker 2: If this was if this was last year and he was like a top five pick, I would be out. But I think that from a I think the cost is something that makes me want to be a buyer, just because I feel like I'm still getting kind of a discount historically.

00:28:38
Speaker 1: Yeah, and if you look at his profile, yes, there's you know, I mentioned all the things that are wrong with it. His breakout score forty one point eight when sub sixty breakout scores in the first round historically literally every single one of them are bus like like every single one since twenty eleven, and all that's bad. Right, I did have the galaxy brain. Maybe he's just an outlier already, right, Like, like he's the the fact that this profile of that that's this bad is getting drafted in round one. He's already kind of an outlier, So why can't he just continue on that path?

00:29:08
Speaker 3: Right?

00:29:09
Speaker 1: But I'll take a step back a little bit, and to your point about this class in general, you get past Ady Mitchell, you know, I like Xavier Worthy a lot like I'm probably you know, let's say Worthy goes if Worthy goes late first, like to me, he'll he'll be locked in after like a Brian Thomas in my opinion. But then, you know, Adie Mitchell after a Xavier Worthy, where Worthy has you know, Worthy still has some concerning marks to his profile, don't get me wrong, Like there's you know, his production didn't get any better after his freshman year. That's that's somewhat of a red flag. Obviously there's some size concerns. But after you get Worthy, let's say, let's just give him the benefit of doubt, you get to a group of players, like you said, where there's just a lot of question marks like this isn't like we're sitting here and talking about flawless prospect after flawless prospect where you know Troy Franklin, you know, didn't have much competition where he was playing, and he's also probably probably not like a true X number one kind of prototype prototypical wide receiver. He's probably not gonna play that role and maybe not command a high target shair as a result of that, to me, he's like a Jamison Williams type, right, And then you know, Lad McConkey to your point, like, is he gonna be that dude, uh, you know at the NFL level or is he gonna be more of a compliment. I think throughout the second round you're littered with a lot of these like complimentary, really good players who could be wide receiver twos in fantasy, but do they truly have that ceiling of being a wide receiver one? And then I have so I have that on one side and then the other side. I'm always like we're really bad at projecting floor and ceiling, you know, like we're really like like so, so I'm like going back and forth. But I think because of all that, you know, I'm gonna rely on the model a lot, and know that Ady Mitchell going in the first round matters to a large degree, Like that's a big deal if he gets first round draft capital. And to me, this is why I have a prospect model. It's to guide me. It's to say, Okay, yes he has these concerning marks, but how much we weigh these things, like how big of a deal you know, is this when in conjunction with draft capital, especially against other players in the draft, because look, at the end of the day, Lad McConkie's breakout score sucks too because he didn't he didn't run enough routes at Georgia. So I do think Mitchell's gonna be really interesting. And the one thing that I and I'd love to hear what you think about this. We live in this fantasy football world where a lot of the drafts that will have a lot of these rookie drafts are gonna whether you're in drafts with people who aren't analysts or are analysts like you and I play in dynasty leagues together and such, and we're in a lot of like analyst leagues and such where we know people are gonna be pretty analytically minded. And so it wouldn't shock me if Ady Mitchell falls in some of those drafts just because they know the production profile is not there. But then even like a home league rookie draft, they're gonna get advice from analysts who are thinking numbers driven. And if that's the case, then Adie Mitchell may fall a little bit in those drafts. And some of those drafts, I'm not saying, all, there's probably gonna be a Mitchell Truther in most of these drafts, but there's gonna be somewhere he falls. Do agree with that, that, like that's where we can get some exposure to the guy.

00:32:03
Speaker 3: Yeah, definitely, definitely.

00:32:04
Speaker 2: I mean this is kind of like the uh like the George Pickens, the Christian Watson. Like I feel like those guys a couple of years ago, it was easy to look at them and say no, And I mean, I guess we'll see. With Watson, I think Pickens is probably pretty good, but like there's opportunities, Like just because someone has red flags or someone has a reason where you wouldn't draft them, doesn't mean that you should just never draft them at all.

00:32:27
Speaker 1: Right, Right, it's all about where what the cost is right, and like what the market is really saying about these guys. One of the more aggressive rankings that I saw throughout your list was Johnny Wilson, who you mentioned. He was slotted in a wide receiver seven, which is dude. I'll tell you what I do this prospect guide. I launch it at the beginning of March, and there were two guys this year where I wish I was a little bit bolder in the way that I spoke about them and the guide. One of them was Johnny Wilson because some of his peripheral numbers were really interesting and you can get into that and talk about him. And then the other one was was Tyrone Tracy, who you know, is that like hybrid came from played wide receiver went to running back as he comped to Tony Pollard in the model. But I was just I was kind of dismissive about those guys. And then over the last month and a half, they're getting a little bit more steem. More and more people were talking about them. Smart people are talking about them, and it's getting me a little bit excited, Like like the Johnny Wilson train is really intriguing to me. But tell me and tell folks why why you seem to like him more than others.

00:33:28
Speaker 3: I mean, I'm just obsessed with this, with this dude.

00:33:30
Speaker 2: Like I just feel like when we when I first started doing this, we love the big receivers, you know, like big fast guys like giving me, give me, give me now. I mean the little guys have like taken over, you know, like there's something wrong with them. But like this, this guy's a freak show. And when I looked at his athleticism and like you know, the stuff on mock draft, but all that, I was like blown away at at how he how he was in those metrics because I think that like the first thing we think of, especially when you look at the school he's coming from, is Kelvin Benjamin. But like, this dude is way more I thought, than Kelvin Benjamin, like a tenth of a second faster in the forty, like a tenth of a second faster in the shuttle. Like if you're looking at his athletic profile, like he's really more in that like Mike Evans, Brandon Marshall Territory, and I mean those players were good. Yeah, obviously not saying that that means that Johnny Wilson is good, but like it's not prohibitive at least, you know where I feel like people were kind of talking about him as like, oh, he should go be a tight end or he's too stiff, and I'm like, well, I don't know is he because he doesn't really test like it, and like he did play like four years as a college wide receiver and he produced head to head against other good players in this class, like he was at Arizona State for like a second with her he Pierre saw during the COVID year, and and he outgained them.

00:34:54
Speaker 3: You know.

00:34:54
Speaker 2: Obviously he played with key On Coleman this year, and like Coleman on the year did better than him. But if you look at just the common games, Wilson outgained him in those games six hundred and seventeen yards to four hundred and thy two.

00:35:04
Speaker 3: Yeah.

00:35:05
Speaker 2: So I'm like, Okay, so, like we have this player who's like truly like a one of a kind athlete, Like there's just not many guys like him, And when he was presented with target challenges from other good players, he was the winner there. So you know, I know he doesn't have like the traditional breakout stats that we like, but I just find myself kind of gravitating to him again as like being someone who like I could just see like the inputs just not really working for a guy like him. Yeah, and he he ends up being a very good player.

00:35:40
Speaker 1: Yeah. I also think that players like this could potentially go down like a like a Chase Claypool kind of trajectory, where like I'm not saying that he's gonna just turn to dust the way that Chase Claypool did. But like where where if you're making the investment in Dynasty, you could have because he's a specimen, right, and like teams and defenses might not be prepared for the specimen, and the offense might be able to use him in more creative ways as a result, maybe as a rookie. And then we see crazy rookie season numbers like we did with Chase Claypool, and then you have a decision to make, like are you gonna invest further or are you going to sell? But at least you, you know, gained value from year one to year two with that player. That's kind of the way that I'm viewing Wilson. Now, you know, I don't know what kind of draft capital will end up getting. It sounds like it could be day two, like like later day two. But if that happens, you know the other thing you mentioned like Pearsol and Keon Coleman, Like if Keon Coleman goes in the beginning of the second round or somehow sneaks into the late first round, that's signaled that's better signal for Johnny Wilson, Right that that like Wilson was competing alongside that and basically put up comparable numbers to some degree, and all of a sudden, you know, he's gonna look a lot better because he was doing that with a late first round pick and same deal with Rocky pearsall. So I like it. I like the boldness of having Wilson there. You know, I know that you obviously are gonna look at landing spot in draft capital after the fact, but I like that. You know, you have like your guy that's standing out and like really sticks out whenever you look at the rankings. But I understand it, like I think that that he is someone who probably is a little bit undervalued, and he was undervalued even the way that I ranked him. You know, once the Prospect Guide came out. Let's talk about a player who I have more issues with than I think you do, and that's Malachi Corley. He's your wide receiver eight. I just have some analytical concerns. But but talk to me about Malachi Corley because he's gotten a lot of you know, he's got some dog, that dog in him. He gets the the Deebo Samuel komp a lot. Is that what you're seeing in Corley.

00:37:43
Speaker 3: Yeah.

00:37:43
Speaker 2: I mean the debo thing was kind of funny because that is something that you hear, like the scouts say, like Lancerline like directly comped him to debo. So it's not like even just people like on Twitter. It's like actual people who like do this for a commart people and that that does matter to me. But like Deebo also came up in his comps, So when that happens, I usually just give it a little extra weight because I'm like, okay, like I do genuinely enjoy when the numbers in the film kind of a line.

00:38:13
Speaker 3: Sure.

00:38:14
Speaker 2: I know Steve Smith really likes him, and I have a lot of respect where he thinks about the receiver position. So you know, I think that it's difficult sometimes to evaluate these guys. I think Zay Flowers is kind of like a good like recent player to kind of look at where it's like, oh, your team sucks, like like your team is terrible. You're the offense. You're just getting pelted with these like low aid out targets, and it's hard to tell like if you're a good player or if you're just the best of a bad bunch. You know, And I guess I just try to lean a little bit more towards the positive and the upside, because again, like the penalty for missing I think on most of these guys is actually very small. Like I there's only so many really good players in the class, and I think for the most part, like you're going to shuffle through a lot of these guys, Like I want to find the guys who can be top twenty Dynasty receivers like that, that's what I want.

00:39:13
Speaker 3: And yeah, you know, when I.

00:39:15
Speaker 2: See a guy like Corley, I see the path because we know that he can get the ball in a variety of ways. We know that, you know, at least one team has already decided like we have to kind of just move everything over and give the ball to him. And so when I match that up with what some of the other smart people are saying, that's where I lean into the more positive aspect. Now, Like obviously, like this guy has warts, you know, like the first time you look at him, you're like, oh my gosh, I don't know if I can necessarily get around like him being a good player. But I again like it's kind of like what you win when you win type deal for me with Corley.

00:39:48
Speaker 1: Yeah, look, I understand the upside for short and Deebo was a was a comp for me as well. My thing has been you know, he played at Western Kentucky, right, Yeah, And at Western Kentucky his yards between pass attempts was still pretty poor, like wasn't really that much over to uh you know when when you know, for a guy at a smaller school, you almost need that to be over the three mark, right, and then I do adjustments based on program strength. Program strength isn't really there. And then when you do that, his breakout score ends up being zero because he just doesn't hit any of the thresholds because of the because of the adjustments that are being made, and so you know, I I but I totally get what you're saying. Where investment wise, you know, there's not that like, yeah, he's a volatile investment. But if you're gonna spend a mid second probably in super flex on him to late second if he goes in the second round or third round, you know, day two pick, you know, that's that's not that significant of an investment to like take a chance and see, you know, if a team can use him creatively. I think he's one of those players though, where he needs to find that spot, like, yeah, one of the one of the I think like you might have thrown this compount too, that he could be like a Rashi Rice type right where you have like this yack monster guy that can catch the ball really close to the line of scrimmage, which is exactly what he did at Western Kentucky. Like he got peppered with targets behind the line of scrimmage, screens, et cetera, et cetera. And look that's that doesn't tell us that he can't do the other things. I think it just tells us that we don't know fully right. The thing with Rashee Rice, I don't know if Rice has the rookie season that he has outside of Kansas City.

00:41:23
Speaker 3: Yeah, right, like super fair, I mean.

00:41:25
Speaker 1: Right, like like I don't know. I don't know if Rashee Rice is Rashee Rice on the field, of course, outside of of that environment where Kansas City gave him those low aid out looks, a lot of screens, a lot of those easy catches, let him do his work after the catch. If Corley can find a spot like that where he can get peppered, yeah, I see it totally. Because he is great at breaking tackles. You know, he is great at playing that kind of role. I just I think my hesitation is, let's I want to see where the landing spot is because I don't know if I have confidence and enough teams out there to be able to do that properly and efficiently and effectively. If that makes sense, All right, let's move on to Ladd McConkie. It's a lad McConkie. He's a bit lower in your rankings than most. Yeah, is that because he's a four year guide didn't really see breakout? Like, like, what is it about McConkie that you're not that into?

00:42:24
Speaker 2: Yes, I mean it's just like all of it, Like, I just the Georgia guys are like tough enough as it is to me, you know, like they really don't produce, especially with Bowers there to just takes so much work. It's like evaluating these guys I think becomes really difficult. And then the fact that he is an older player, he's a smaller player, and he's someone who's already had an injury history, like he's pretty much hurt like All Off twenty twenty two, but played through it, and then last year he missed I want to say, five games with an injury, Like is that going.

00:42:57
Speaker 3: To be an issue too? Like where he's just thinged up all the time.

00:42:59
Speaker 2: Like it's just you know, he's a guy where the numbers aren't gonna like him for the reasons that we kind of stated in terms of the age and all that. But like the difference between him and like Nadie Mitchell or you know what of those guys we've already talked about, it is just that like I just don't see the ceiling, Like I'm not sure what I'm getting here, Like am I getting Doug Baldwin, Because if I'm getting Doug Baldwin, I kind of need Russell Wilson, you know, Like yeah, So I just I worry about this, you know. I mean he was a pure red shirt in twenty twenty. I didn't even see the field at all. And the guys who did get on the field, you know, Jermaine Burton, Kiarris Jackson, George Pickens, Like I'm not sure how good those guys are, you know, Like I don't know how good Jermane Burton is. So I just there's just too much going on there where I'm just I'd rather just stay away because I'm not sure what I'm getting if he is good, and I'm not really it's hard to if he even will be.

00:44:02
Speaker 1: Yeah, I think there's just like this massive tier of players after again, like for me, it's the Worthy mark. You know, it could be the ad Mitchell mark, depending on his draft capital. But like there's all of these guys like at Troy Franklin, who I think has I like, I'd probably prefer Franklin over Maconkie just because there's a better baseline for production there. But like, you know, mconkie, the one thing that's bringing me in is the yards per route run is that he has the sixth best in the class among combined invites, and that includes guys who went to small schools where they should have you know, higher yards per route run rates, just because the competition's inferior. Uh and and you know it plays into like Georgia's game script. Mconkie might not being one hundred percent all that kind of stuff and him running the fifth most routes on Georgia this past year, and so you can at least like tell yourself somewhat of a story. But I think I generally agree where like there's this massive tier, and I'd rather be drafting at the bottom of that tier, you know, to extract as much value as possible as opposed to spending a late first on a conkey when I could get a player X, you know, in the mid second who probably has a similar range of outcomes, like from a fantasy perspective. So I totally feel you and understand that. Concerned, Let's move on to running back. You know, you have a pretty interesting RB one tier. It seems like that was formed of Jalen Wright, Blake Korm and Jonathan Brooks when a lot of people would place Trey Benson in there. Do you have any issues with with Benson's profile? What separates sort of the other three guys more and above Benson.

00:45:30
Speaker 2: Yeah, I think the thing that keeps Benson out for me, I mean, I guess it's a couple things. Like first, he had a super super major injury like early in his college career. Yeah, so we just haven't seen a lot of him. I think that that kind of paints the picture for me in a way where I'm like, well, I just feel very uncertain. You know, he was not a workhorse, so it's not like, you know, in the case of Brooks, he did not play a lot, Like he is not a high usage player for the majority of his career, but like in his last year he was right and Benson wasn't. So there's just not really a lot of guys like him.

00:46:13
Speaker 3: Now.

00:46:13
Speaker 2: He is bigger, Like, he's over twenty and fifteen pounds, he ran the sub four four forty. That's like generally a pretty good group, So there's reasons to like him. I just the durability stuff and the draft position, where like I think for this class as a whole, like majority of these guys are going to be Round three and later. So how much work are you really guaranteed to get? And when I can't really rely on you to be like a huge volume player, I really need you to be a home run hitter. And I'm not positive that he's that either on as consistent a basis as like Jalen Right, because I thought Jalen Wright, like again, was another guy who's not a workhorse, but I thought that the explosive stuff was way better. So that's why I have him higher. And then korm and Brooks. For me, you're just guys who like they could be work horses, you know, I mean, like bla Blake Orn without the injury at the end of twenty teenth, twenty two, I think would be like considered way better and like obviously would just look a lot better, Like his draft position would probably be projected to be higher all that stuff, because I think he's awesome, you know, but it's just a matter of like are we going to get that Blake korm again or are we going to get what we had last year at Michigan where clearly he was kind of like missing that that last year and missing kind of what he had the year before. So I'm again like I'm kind of playing for the for the ceiling here Benson. Just like I just feel like Benson's going to be like a part time guy who doesn't score touchdowns and doesn't to you know, like there's just so many ways for him to not really be a productive NFL back where I'm like, okay, like I just want to take a little bit of a stand here and put him a little bit lower than that group of guys that you mentioned.

00:47:58
Speaker 1: I like the point that you made about these guys likely like chances are I when do you think the first running back is gonna get drafted let's let's start there, Like what if you were to say you can even say by round, you don't say like by pick or anything like that, But do you think the first running back go is off the board in round three?

00:48:14
Speaker 2: Like I think like late second round to Dallas is like the first chance that you're going to get and that's because they have like a glaring need.

00:48:22
Speaker 1: Right right, And I would agree, like I think that's that's like the spot, Like if one of these guys goes there, I think that you know, combining, yeah, combining draft capital, combining all that, then we're like, Okay, he's the RB one in this class. But I think from that perspective though, like let's say that all these guys going round three or later, then it's sort of like a choose your own adventure in my opinion of like what you like prospecting and what you like out of a running back, because once you get to that point in time, especially like late third into day three, there's not that big of a difference in ability and in fantasy production out of those players. Like round two is the sweet spot, Like you want these guys, if they're really gonna be difference makers, to go in round two, and then you start to see this drop off. And so if that's the case, if you believe that, then you can really go by who you just feel as most talented, as opposed to really weigh draft capital heavily. Obviously, I have my model that's gonna help me like figure that stuff out. But I'm saying anyone out there who's just sort of like trying to figure out who you should be drafting, don't weigh draft like just because the guys in RB one in his class does not mean that he will automatically be good, you know, if he's getting like or the RB two in his class, who's getting you know, round three or late round three capital. I think it's really really important to make that point. You're you're one of the few people though that I feel like is not very high on Trey Benson. It seems like everyone has them has him, and I've played it safe to be to be clear with Benson where I'm like, I think the draft capital's probably gon be a little bit better than like a Jalen Right, But looking at some like mock draft and NFL mock draft database and such, like, Jalen Wright's been rising ever since I made, you know, those initial rankings and like other guys are sort of like creeping in and it's making me he want to go that route a little bit more as opposed to trade Benson because there's a lot of flags to his profile that you know, I just don't like. Like, if you look at day two backs who have as poor of a breakout score and a sub ten percent best season reception share, which is definitely something you don't want out of a running back. There's there's literally no hits on Day two, and there's like a group of like ten running backs that have that have sort of been in that archetype and been with those thresholds, And so I'm a little concerned from that perspective, do you think Jonathan Brooks without the ACL would be your clear cut RB one?

00:50:35
Speaker 3: Maybe I don't know.

00:50:37
Speaker 2: I go back and forth on this with Leoni all the time, because that's where he's got. He comes from that perspective, or he's like, you know, if he wasn't injured, what would you think of him? And I guess like I would have him consider I guess I would have him higher just because if he didn't have the ACL, I just feel way better about him being a round to you guy instead of the potential that he falls into round three, right, And maybe I should just already have him higher just because like I feel like he's projected so frequently to go to Dallas where it's like maybe I should just get ahead of it.

00:51:08
Speaker 3: But yeah, I think the injury is definitely the thing that keeps him like kind of in that group. And like, I mean he.

00:51:15
Speaker 2: Really was only a one year producer. That's kind of the other thing too, where I'm like there's great reasons for that. I mean, like you play with John Robinson, like you are not seeing the field and Johnson, right, Yeah, but it's just like I I but like I just don't know, you know, like it's it's kind of like an unseen thing for me. Yeah, so that's that's kind of why I have him like in that group instead of like at the top or above that group.

00:51:37
Speaker 1: Yeah. No, It's it's totally fair. And I also think that like, and I bring this up all the time, but like from a game theory perspective, we can't just dismiss the acl right, Like, like if the dude doesn't play for or doesn't get a lot of work for the front half of his rookie year, or maybe he just doesn't get a ton of work throughout his rookie season. Then all of a sudden, you're sitting after year one and you're gonna say to yourself, Okay, I have Jonathan Brooks and my Dynasty roster.

00:52:00
Speaker 3: Ok great.

00:52:01
Speaker 1: You can say to yourself and sell to yourself all day long that, oh, he just didn't produce because of the ACL But in the back of your mind, you know that year one production matters a lot from a predictability standpoint and predictiveness standpoint, and if he doesn't have that, then you're gonna still question it, right like you're gonna still question what's gonna happen moving forward with Brooks. So I do think that that's still in the back of my mind. I'm I'm now officially on Brooks RB one, but I you know, understand the hesitation a lot, because I have plenty of hesitation with it. And Jalen Wright has been someone that's been rising for me a ton you know during this process where like from a fantasy perspective, you can see him at the very least being in a in a tandem as sort of the lightning right in that tandem, and then what if there's an injury or what if he just overtakes that backfield and is able to showcase talent, et cetera, et cetera. So I'm liking Wright a lot more just because of that that speed prof and that that explosiveness profile. Let's move on to the tight end class. Do you have, you know, any favorites in this class? How many do you think end up getting take? Obviously brock Bauer is gonna go day one, but how many do you think end up going day two?

00:53:11
Speaker 2: So I think that there's like five guys maybe with a chance we probably only get like two. But like Jatavian Sanders and Ben Sino, I think are probably the favorites to be like the next couple of tight ends off the board. And then THEO Johnson, Jaheem Bell and Kate Stover I think have a chance. I don't know if it's a great chance, although Charles Robinson from Yahoo said today that a lot of teams have THEO Johnson as their tight end two. So that that made me feel I think a lot better because as with all Penn State guys, he has a great athletic profile.

00:53:44
Speaker 1: Yeah, right, you go to Penn State, you're an athlete.

00:53:47
Speaker 2: Yeah, so yeah, And there's like some kind of like fun guys here, Like I don't really know if I'm gonna feel great about drafting any of them before like the third round of.

00:53:56
Speaker 3: Rookie drafts if it's super flex but.

00:54:00
Speaker 2: Like athletically like Sino is really good jahem, Bell like is just like.

00:54:04
Speaker 3: A yack monster, like had more yak.

00:54:06
Speaker 2: Than Bowers per catch, which is like really difficult to do Johnson, like you said, as an athlete. But the guy that like way further down the board that I'm like obsessed with is Tip Ryman from Illinois. This guy is two hundred and seventy one pounds and he runs like a four to six, and I'm just like I'd like the big guy run fast is just like the easiest way into my heart. Like I just you know, because he's someone who even if he's like a round four pick, I could see getting.

00:54:38
Speaker 3: On the field immediately because he can block.

00:54:41
Speaker 2: And that's kind of like what holds a lot of these younger tight ends back is the blocking and the physical nature, you know, blocking those NFL defensive ends stuff like that. So if you can get on the field, like he he has the athletic profile to be like not like elite to your tight end, I guess, but just like someone who is not going to be easy to tackle, catch the ball in the red zone. Like I don't know, the threshold for like being a productive fantasy tight end is very low. So I just feel like he's kind of a guy that, like just on high weight speed I have to buy a little bit.

00:55:17
Speaker 1: Yeah, THEO Johnson too, I mean, I mean his athleticisms like out of this world. His his production profile is pretty crappy, but the athleticism is just like insanity. Jaheem Bell is one that I wish he was like just a little bit. It's like Ski Loos song. I wish he was a little bit taller. I wish he was a little bit bigger. It would be nice to have like a more prototypical size from him because I really like his production profile, and you know he had that he had a pretty good speed score two. When it was all said and done, well, we'll see I like the call that we'll probably see a couple day two tight ends. That's an interesting nugget about Theo Johnson too, because my model, right now has Johnson at barely barely, but it has him at tight end two just because of the athleticism. But I don't I don't think I'm going to necessarily rank him that way when it's all said and done, just because number one, I don't know if that if he gets the capitol, but also the production profile is just really not that strong. You've also been someone This is very random, but I want to hear your thoughts, Jakwan Jackson, talk to me about him.

00:56:19
Speaker 3: Man, this is this is my guy. I don't know.

00:56:22
Speaker 2: Like again, like I didn't realize that I was like on a bubble on this until like people kept bringing it up to me, like, oh, you like Chawon Jackson, Like I don't even know who that is. I'm like, oh great again not a great start, and like he's probably someone who goes on day three. But yeah, he's Ed Reid's nephew, Like he has the Hall of Fame bloodlines again, but he was also a second year breakout at Tulane, so I kind of when I first started looking at him, I immediately thought of Jayden Reid where I'm like, you know, he had the early breakout, then he was hurt a lot. That's kind of the Chawanji action story, like just really struggle with injuries and he is smaller, Like, this guy's gonna have to be a slot he's not gonna be able to be an outside target. But everyone seemed to really like him at the Senior Bowl the Senior week. He was a standout there at the practices and the game was like kind of a mess, but just you know, the practices I think are really usually what matter. So like if I'm gonna take a guy late, if there's a dart that I'm trying to throw, like again, give me the guy who's like a solid athlete actually has decent age adjusted production just because he broke out a young at a young age, even though he was in college for a while and is probably gonna get a shot, I mean, like for no other reason, the fact that his uncle is who he is, Like, I feel like he's gonna at least get a chance.

00:57:47
Speaker 1: So yeah, he's also someone who has a you know, to your Jaden Reid point, he's someone who has that like all around profile, like he's got a lot of rushing work and stuff and can play that way, which is signaled that the dude is getting the ball in his hands in more creative ways because the team wants the ball in his hands. So uh yeah, definitely, Jakwan Jackson not too lane. Everyone should at least be aware of him late late in your rookie drafts. That's an Amiko special right there. But I'm gonna I want to end this with, Aside from Jackson, what other under the radar prospect do you think that that fantasy gamers should be more concerned about. You can name more than one or just one, doesn't matter.

00:58:23
Speaker 2: Oh there's three guys I really like. I don't know, Dylan, Dylan Laub or Lobby I don't I mean, this is probably like a This is like the hipster pick I feel like because he's like twenty five, but every every like nerd loves this guy. I feel like, or at least should because he caught so many passes, Like yeah, it's amazing, you know, lacrosse guy awesome, three cones, six' eighty. Four he's like actually like decently, big like he's two oh. Six so, again like we kind of talked about like where these running backs are gonna, Go LIKE i can absolutely see him caving carving out a role WHERE ppr leagues.

00:58:59
Speaker 3: Where we're kind of we're kind of.

00:59:00
Speaker 2: Balling, Yeah and then at Receiver Anayas smith From TEXAS a AND. M, yeah he's he's very. Fun like, again like he played a little bit of running back in his second, season AND i think it really cost him like a. Breakout LIKE i as a, receiver he was doing really well and then it was it was, like, oh, Well Devanny chang's, hurt like, choker you, know you have to play some running. Back so he didn't get like the receiving numbers that he probably would have gotten. Otherwise so if IF i cheat a little bit AND i credit him with the with the breakout in year, two WHICH i love to, do he gets like some really good comps like even as A day three pick like amn Ra Jadeen, Reed Christian, Kirk, Usc Steve. Smith like there there's PATHS i feel like to production. Here he's like another guy, that like with the, ball has at least proven that he can he can make some things. Happen then the last, Guy luke McCaffrey at A, rice it's just just just, McCaffrey you, Know like, Yeah bloodline really never played receiver at, All like he was a high school, quarterback he was a college. Quarterback so even though he's a late, breakout he's kind of LIKE i don't AND i don't know how to quantify, this but it's like he's he's an early breakout as a, Receiver like he just hasn't done, it and like immediately he's he's absorbing. Targets, immediately he's the top guy and he's. Productive so, LIKE i just feel like that bodes really. Well and he and again like he's another one of those senior ball guys where like if he snuck into the tail end of the third, round it would shock.

01:00:31
Speaker 3: Me but like if, not he's probably around.

01:00:34
Speaker 2: Four SO i there's there's REASONS i feel like where he could end up being like a pretty good.

01:00:39
Speaker 1: Player, YEAH i like the McCaffrey call. Out you, know like you, said he plays quarterback and then doesn't play that much wide, receiver but when he played wide, out he actually didn't have terrible. Numbers Deaniah Smith one loved that as. Well Curtis samuel was the top comp for. Me for, him you, know that that sort of hybrid kind of player that can do it. All BUT, i you, KNOW i obviously he's playing wide receiver at THE nfl. Level he's also A Matt waldman special as A nia. Smith that's a good combo of of sort of analytics and. Film and Then Dylan. Lowby we got. IT i, mean, look the dude has the highest best season reception share in my. Database so, Yeah i'm a. Sucker i'm a sucker for past catching. Backs, Man i'm Gonna i'm gonna get him an. All my only thing is that he is such a hipster pick that we're gonna he's gonna be like an early third rounder In super and, like you can't do that if he's gonna be like a seventh round.

01:01:31
Speaker 2: Picker, NOW i was snooping On korean's rankings like a couple of weeks, ago and he.

01:01:34
Speaker 3: Had him so.

01:01:34
Speaker 1: High my, yeah, yeah right exactly. Exactly it's like we're Not we're not gonna be able to get like round Five Dylan lowby and or rookie, drafts which. Sucks H But Amiko manna was great to talk to. You why don't you let everyone know where they can find?

01:01:47
Speaker 2: You, yeah can find me On, Twitter Adam eksta and, uh you, know we got all The dynasty stuff going on AT etr.

01:01:53
Speaker 3: So check that.

01:01:53
Speaker 2: Out, obviously we'll update everything after the, draft and, UH i think it's gonna be a lot of. Fun. Man this is this is a great year for rookie, draft great year to have multiple. Picks so it's gonna be a great.

01:02:02
Speaker 1: Time, YEAH i, agree it's gonna be one of those years where it's gonna you, know you get to really choose the guys that you know your process lead you, to as opposed to just kind of letting draft capital take the wheel and just being, like, WELL i gotta take this guy because he's a first round pick versus a third round. PICK i think it's gonna be a really really interesting. Time as, always, though you guys can follow me On twitter At Late ROUND. Qb check out The Late Round Prospect guide over on lateround dot. COM i will have the updated guide out for you guys On saturday. NIGHT i promise, you when the draft is, over just give me a little bit of time to fully update. Things i'll be updating as the draft goes, on but to fully update, things you will have it in your hands On saturday night BECAUSE i know that you guys are gonna be doing your rookie drafts almost immediately. After but this is the last ye you'll hear my voice until next, week so everyone enjoy the. Draft, amiko you enjoy the draft as. WELL i know it's gonna be a stressful tilting and entertaining, time but, otherwise, everyone thank you for tuning.

01:03:00
Speaker 2: In h