311: Week 10 Matchups

00:00:02
Speaker 1: This is the Labor Podcast with your host JJ zachersa J J zacher reson.

00:00:11
Speaker 2: What's up everyone.

00:00:12
Speaker 1: It's JJ Zacharyesen, the editor in chief at FanDuel and at number five dot com. And this is episode three hundred and eleven of the Late Round Podcast, one of the many shows that are part of the FanDuel podcast network. Thanks for tuning in, guys. Last week's matchup show was the worst matchup show that I think I've ever done. I whiffed on a lot of players. You don't have to go back and listen. I'm telling you right now. Variants hit me hard this past week. Robbie Anderson wasn't close to what I thought he would be. Neither was Alan Robinson. I wasn't aggressive enough with my Buffalo backfield evaluation for week nine, specifically Kyler Murray ended up being a good Fantasy option. The list goes on, Yeah, yeah, this is a process over results game, but last week's results were trash, and I apologize if I led you in the wrong direction. Week nine is not the norm. Now, before making up for last week by talking through some players, I'm higher and lower on versus the consensus for this one. I want to let you guys know about fandels Thursday Night NFL contest appropriately called the Thursday Night Special. Make a lineup full of Raiders and Chargers players and enter that lineup for just nine dollars. You'll have a chance at eight hundred thousand dollars with the prizes including a two hundred thousand dollars first place prize. Visit fandel dot com to enter. I think Jimmy Garoppolo is in play again this week after a great Week nine performance. Seattle has allowed the tenth most fantasy points per game this year to opposing quarterbacks, but only two of the eight quarterbacks that they faced who have started and finished a game. Because they did face Pittsburgh when Ben Roethlisberger got hurt, two of those eight quarterbacks ended up scoring below their season long average, they haven't faced the toughest quarterback competition, and since facing Andy Dalton, the combination of Big Ben and Mason Rudolph and then Teddy Bridgewater across the first three weeks this season, the six quarterbacks who have gone up against Seattle have all ranked as top fourteen weekly options, averaging nineteen point six fantasy points per game. Vandel sportsbook has this game with a forty seven point over under, and San Francisco has a pretty high twenty six and a half point implied team total. Jimmy g should be a solid option this week. I also don't mind Ryan Tannehill. I saw he was ranked below Sam Donald on Fantasy Pros this week, but I'm not sure how we can feel that confident. Not only is Tannehill's matchup not that bad against Kansas City, but Tannehill has also been QB fourteen, QB ten, and QB six in each of his last three starts or each of his only three starts this year. Donald's ranked higher than QB twenty one once in five games. But back to the matchup, Tannehill gets a Kansas City defense it's allowing the eleventh most fantasy points per game this year to opposing quarterbacks, and it's in a game with a forty eight and a half point over under. The Titans are underdogs at home, and that might not be all that bad of a thing because they may not be able to be their typical run heavy selves. On the year, they have a one point one to nine pass to rush attempt ratio overall, but in neutral game scripts that rises to one point three to six, so they're more pass heavy when games are close.

00:03:10
Speaker 2: To me. Ryan Tannehill is one of the top streamers this week, and.

00:03:13
Speaker 1: Then regardless of who's under center for Indianapolis, you should feel confident about them against Miami. The Dolphins were fine last week against Sam Darnold, but they still allowed the fourth highest yards pert tempt rate this season, and Indy has a twenty seven point twenty five point implied team total. If they score that many points, the quarterback is going to have something to do with it. So even if Brian Hoyer starts, I think that he's in play if you aren't able to get someone like Ryan Tannehill. Now on the other side of things, I think it's fair to wonder if Jared Goff can live up to his fringe QB one.

00:03:42
Speaker 2: Ranking this week.

00:03:43
Speaker 1: The Rams are coming off of by so that gives me some hesitation, But going to Pittsburgh and facing this Steelers defense won't be the easiest task in the world. Pittsburgh hasn't allowed or performance higher than QB sixteen since Week two when they faced Russell Wilson, and that just happens to coincide to when they traded for Minka Fitzpatrick. But if you look at Jared Goff season, it's been one where he's either been a really strong fantasy option or he poops all over the field. He's finishes QB twelve once and then QB eight are better four other times. So he has five QB one performances, but he has three performances where he ranked his QB twenty eight, QB twenty three, and QB twenty nine. Those three games were against Carolina, Cleveland, and San Francisco, all three of those teams ranking the top twelve and pressure rate this year. Meanwhile, during his good performances, only one of them featured an opponent with a.

00:04:32
Speaker 2: Top half of the league pressure rate.

00:04:34
Speaker 1: And then if you look at Pittsburgh, they rank only behind San Francisco and pressure rate this year. So I'm a little bit worried about what's going to happen to Jared Goff and this Rams offense. I'd say he's more of a mid range QB two rather than a low end QB one. And then I'm definitely a little bit worried as well with Kirk Cousins going on the road against Dallas, especially With Adam Thielen expected to miss the game, Dallas hasn't faced a ton of good quarterbacks this year, but they did go up against Air Rodgers and Carson Wentz over their last four games, and they held them to mediocre fantasy days. Dallas has actually allowed the six lowest yards per attempt rate this year while giving up the fifth fewest Fantasy points to opposing passers. Minnesota's implied team total isn't that bad in this game, and that should make Cousins fine enough, But without Thielan, I think there's enough reason to bench him. Given what we saw from the Bills and how they used Devin Singletary last week, I think we're safe to trust him as an RB two moving forward, and against Cleveland in a game where Buffalo is a two and a half point underdog, you can feel good about Singletary seeing the field quite a bit since he's been used heavily as a receiver this year. So if it's a neutral game script for them, it's only logical to think that Devin Singletary will see a lot of touches once again. But last week, Singletary saw over sixty four percent of Buffalo's running back carries while maintaining a twenty percent target share. That target share number wasn't anything new, he had that same exact share of the previous week, but the sixty four and a half percent running back rush share was almost double his previous season high. And Singletary also saw two goal line rushes last week and he converted one of them for a touchdown, whereas Frank Gores saw three and he wasn't able to find the end zone. That may shift things in Singletary's favor even more now. Another player who saw a nice uptick in usage last week was Ronald Jones, and I think we're at the point where he should also be started as an RB two. Jones saw a season high seventy eight percent of Tampa Bay's running back carries this past week. And now the Bucks are facing Arizona as four and a half point favorites in a game according to Fandels Sportsbook with a fifty one point over under, So there could be scoring in this game and the Bucks may not be playing from behind. That's the perfect recipe for a running back, especially one who's seeing more and more usage, and my deep desperation play this week at running back is Gus Edwards. The Bengals have allowed the six most rushing yards to running backs this year. The Ravens are nine and a half point favorites, and they've got one of the higher imply team totals on this slate. Edwards has played forty point seven percent thirty seven point three percent in five forty percent of Baltimore snaps over his last three games. He was typically hovering in the mid to upper twenties in snapshare prior to Week six. Now, that hasn't led to drastically different rush share numbers, but it's a sign that he's on the field more. That's the first step in generating more fantasy points. He's absolutely a desperation play, though I wouldn't be using Edwards over players with locked in roles in their offenses. But if things go south for Cincinnati, which is very possible given their quarterback situation and the matchup, then Edwards could get some run in this game. Now, as for running backs, and I'm a little bit lower on versus the consensus, I'm just gonna go back to Joe Mixon.

00:07:36
Speaker 2: Like I just talked.

00:07:37
Speaker 1: About, Cincinnati's got a new quarterback under center. They're huge underdogs. They have the second lowest implied team total on the slate, and Baltimore's allowed the fourth fewest fantasy points to opposing running backs over the last five weeks. To make things worse, Mixings seen a double digit percentage target share in just two games this year.

00:07:54
Speaker 2: It's tough to have a lot of confidence in mixing. And then there's Lishaw McCoy.

00:07:58
Speaker 1: As I talked about on the ten Tend Show yesterday, Damian Williams played his highest snap rate of the year on Sunday while handling three quarters of the Chiefs running back rushes. McCoy has now hit a fifty percent snap share just once this season, and he's really only been super usable in three weeks. I just think there's a good bit of risk rolling him out this week after what we saw from Damian Williams.

00:08:18
Speaker 2: Last week and his usage.

00:08:20
Speaker 1: But it is understandable if you have no other choice in this running back landscape. Now at wide receiver this week, I love me some Christian Kirk. He disappointed in a tough matchup last week in San Francisco, but Tampa Bay is the opposite of that type of matchup. They've allowed the most fantasy points in the league to opposing wide receivers, and then on top of that, they've watched over thirty four percent of the targets against them go to the slot. That's a well above average rate, and that's where Kirk has played about seventy four percent of his snaps this year according to Pro Football Focus. So Larry Fitzgerald is in play too as a result, but I'm just calling out Kirk since he's seen a more consistent target share in that offense. Despite his poor performance last week, he still saw roughly twenty two percent of Arizona's targets. Another pair of teammates who should be okay enough to start this week are Robbie Anderson and Jamison Crowder. Now, I missed on Anderson last week in what seemed like, on paper, the perfect matchup and volume was there to match that. Anderson had seen three straight games with at least a twenty percent target share in the Jets offense, so naturally during my hell week he saw just eleven percent of the team's targets. Crowder is the higher floor play given his usage this year, but I'm specifically talking about Anderson here since most of you are probably more on the fence with him. The Giants not only have allowed the third most fantasy points to wide receivers this season, though, but they've also allowed the fifth most receptions on passes that travel fifteen or more air yards. And we know that, at least historically, Anderson is a big play receiver. He's actually third in the NFL and deep ball targets since Sam Darnold returned from mono. He just hasn't done a lot with those targets because the Jets haven't been able to move the ball, but that can change in a matchup like this.

00:10:00
Speaker 2: You just have to hope that last.

00:10:01
Speaker 1: Week was more of an anomaly than how things are going to be for the Jets moving forward, meaning, yes, they'll be bad. The Jets offense probably won't be very good for the rest of the season, but hopefully they won't be that bad. I've got a couple of deep plays for you guys this week too, since I know that there are a lot of buys. The first one is Ted Gin. Now, I don't feel great about it because the last time what we saw Ted Gin play, he had about a five percent target share, but he ran the second most routes on the Saints, and he gets the perfect matchup in Week ten with Drew Brees back. Atlanta's had arguably the worst defense in secondary in football this year, and over seventy two percent of the receiving yards that they've allowed have gone to wide receivers. That's the highest mark in the league. So in a high scoring game, ted Gen is a decent deep play. Another waiver wire type play this week is Deebo Samuel. He's run the second most routes for San Francisco over the team's last two games, behind only Emmanuel Sanders, and he's now seen sixteen percent, fourteen percent, and nineteen percent of the forty nine ers targets in each of his last three. That's as long as you forget that miserable Monsoon game against Washington, but those numbers were thirteen percent or lower in three of his first four. Basically, what I'm saying is things are trending up for Debo, and his matchup against Seattle isn't a bad one. As I mentioned earlier, the Seahawks haven't been that great against the pass despite going up against a pretty mediocre schedule. Now, in that same game, if you have Tyler Lockett you're probably gonna be playing Tyler Lockett, and I think he should be in your lineup, but I'm lower on him versus the consensus this week where they have him as a top ten wide out. San Francisco has obviously been good defensively. They're allowing the six fewest Fantasy points per game to enemy wide receivers, but specifically, they've been good against slot guys, which is where Tyler Lockett has played over seventy percent of his snaps from this year. On the season, just twenty three percent of targets are going to pass catchers in the slot against San Francisco. That's the second lowest rate in the league. They've allowed the second fewest yards to the slot and the fewest receptions, and they've only allowed one touchdown. It's not the greatest spot in the world for Tyler Lockett, but like I said, if you've got him, you probably have to play him given his ability and his role in this offense. Tyrell Williams is another guy who could be in store for a down game. He'll likely see Casey Hayward when he faces the Chargers on Thursday night, and Hayward ranks seventh best according to PFF and quarterback rating allowed when looking at relevant cornerbacks, and he's allowed just two hundred and eleven yards and one touchdown this year off of thirty three targets. So basically it's not an easy matchup for Tyrell Williams, who actually saw a dip and target share this past week. There are a few tight end streamers that you could use this week, with two of them in the same game. The first is Jack Doyle. He's seen a double digit percentage target share in every game since Week one. There could be no t Y Hilton in this contest against Miami, and he ran the eleventh most routes at tight end last week and it was ten more routes than teammate Eric Ebron, and the matchup is there. Miami has allowed twenty one point seven percent of the receiving yards to go to the tight end position, which is one of the higher marks in football, so in PPR formats, I think Doyle's not a bad high floor option in that same game, though, as Mike Gasiki, he saw six targets last week and he now has a double digit percentage target share in three of his last four and Indianapolis has sort of been a team under this new coaching regime over the last two years that's been pretty good at defending wideouts or at least proportionally while struggling against tight ends in the middle of the field. This season, specifically, almost twenty six percent of the targets that they've faced have gone to tight ends, whereas they have one of the lowest rates of targets against them when it comes to wide receivers. Without Preston Williams in that lineup, Kasiki could see some work. And then there's Jared Cook. He's still available on a lot of waiver wires, but with Drew Brees back, we should feel a little more optimistic about his involvement in this offense. The last time we saw Cook back in Week six, he ran thirty routes and he was able to find the end zone in a good matchup against Atlanta in a high scoring game. Jared Cook is a very solid option this week.

00:14:01
Speaker 2: Now.

00:14:01
Speaker 1: Defensively for Week ten, if Baltimore is on your waiver wire, get them. But I don't want to dig into that matchup because it's obvious, as is Indianapolis to a degree.

00:14:10
Speaker 2: They're ten and a half point favorites.

00:14:12
Speaker 1: Ryan Fitzpatrick has thrown a pick in all but one game this year, and the Dolphins are being sacked at the third highest rate in football. You could look at the New York Giants though, as a deeper play. At first, I was going to talk about Tampa Bay, but my brain is telling me to go with the Giants. The Jets have been sacked at the highest rate in football this year, and even last week, Sam Darnald was sacked three times against Miami. Meanwhile, the Giants have actually been pretty average and pressure rate this year, so they may be able to get to Donald. I think I prefer them slightly to Tampa Bay right now, but both of them are in play as deeper streaming options. That's going to do it for today's show. Thanks to all of you for listening. If you've get subscribed to the Late Round podcast, make sure you are by searching for it pretty much anywhere podcast can be found, and don't forget to follow me on Twitter at Late Round QB. We've got the mail bag show tomorrow, so I'll talk to you then.

00:15:08
Speaker 2: M