419: 15 Transactions for Week 4

00:00:02
Speaker 1: This is the lad Podcast with your host JJ zacher Retha j J zacher reson What's up everyone. It's JJ Zacharyesen, the editor in chief at Fandle and at number fire dot com in this episode four hundred and nineteen of the Late Round podcast. With many shows that are part of the FanDuel podcast Network. Thanks for tuning in. So I try to put myself out there each week on this show. I don't want to hold back my honest thought on players in fantasy football. I'm going to get things right and I'm gonna get things wrong, like last week. Last week, one of the transactions was to sell Nick Chubb, and then Chubb had a great game in Week three. Of course, I realized that transaction doesn't look very intelligent in hindsight, and I don't like giving bad advice. Some fantasy analysts don't care. I care. I want you guys to win. But don't think that if I ignore talking about Chubb or if I seem to talk about something that I did, I'd get right. Don't think I'm just trying to talk about what I want to talk about and ignore the things that I get wrong. Because at the end of each season, I go through the things that I got right and the things that I got wrong. They each get their own podcast episode. If Chubb continues his pace, and if he finishes as an RB one when I thought that he was an RB two, I'll talk about that and where things went wrong. I'm not an analyst that's gonna hide from his mistakes. I'll defend myself if I'm being misinterpreted and misrepresented, which I have to do sometimes. But you don't get into this business without understanding that you're going to miss a whole lot of predictions. But in order for me to give you good advice and to be right, I'm going to have to be wrong. That's just the nature of how this works. Just keep in mind that I'll go through all of my hits and misses at the end of the year. I don't shy away from talking about the things that go south, because that's what helps us become better at this game that we all love. Now, before getting into the transactions this week, I want to remind you about the Ringers Mega Contest. It's easy. Just make five picks against the spread, including one double down, every single week. The top one hundred users at the end of the season, will then compete for the twenty five thousand dollars in prizes during the playoffs. And the best part is it's free to enter. To enter for free, visit playfree dot fandel dot com. Slash the Ringer. Eligibility restrictions apply. Add Justin Jefferson. So you guys remember before the season where I was into Irv Smith because Minnesota didn't have a locked in number two pass catcher. Clearly that's not gonna be Irv Smith. He's not gonna be a thing this year, or I don't think he will. But Justin Jefferson looks like that dude, and he was the logical player to be that guy. He had the best ADP outside of Adam Thielen on that team as a pass catcher. I like Justin Jefferson a lot as a prospect, so I'm very excited about his emergence in week three. He watched his snapshare rise from fifty four percent in week two to about seventy nine percent on Sunday, and that translated to a thirty six percent target share, and he also had one hundred and twenty eight air yards, which was a top fifteen number across the league. Now we can't expect that type of usage week in and week out from Justin Jefferson. But it's gonna be tough for the Vikings to hold Jefferson back after this performance. And maybe best of all, they get three plus matchups over their next three games. They're gonna face the Texans, Seahawks, and Falcons. So to me, Justin Jefferson is your number one wide receiver ad this week. Hold James Robinson. Look, you guys know that I'm sort of a James Robinson truther. I liked him a lot as a prospect. I talked about him on this show back in April and May. So I don't think that his start to twenty twenty is some fluke. He's looked really good and now he ranks well into the top half of the league in efficiency according to number fires Expected points model. That was a mouthful, but he's been good. That's basically what I want to say here. There is some reason for concern though. He's an undrafted rookie, and usually undrafted rookies don't perform that well, and more competition will eventually be in that Jacksonville backfield. But the reason I wanted to have this transaction this week is because he had this big Thursday night performance and some people may be wondering if they should sell him, and the answer to that is no, I don't think so. Because upcoming for the Jags are games against the Bengals, Texans, and Lions. Those are the top three teams and running back rushing yards allowed so far this year. With almost ninety two percent of the team's running back rushes and a target shair above ten percent, Robinson should continue to be a very, very usable fantasy asset. Drop Carson Wentz. Guys, Carson Wentz has been awful. He's been terrible. He just looks lost on the field, and that's translated to fantasy football. He's ranked as a low end QB two through three games, and those have been against legitimately beatable defenses. Week one, Wentz had thirteen fantasy points against Washington. Over their next two games, the football team allowed a thirty two point outing to Kyler Murray and a fourteen point one to Baker Mayfield this past weekend. Then in Week two, Wentz scored a little over twelve points against the Rams. Now, the Rams have faced tough quarterback competition outside of that game, this year, but that was easily the lowest point total the day allowed this year. And then in Week three you get Cincinnati. You think, finally, Carson Wentz is gonna come through with a strong fantasy performance, and he kind of did, but he didn't do it with his arm. He did it with his legs. Twelve and a half of his twenty one and a half points came from the ground. He is still not getting it done as a passer, and that's really really concerning, and there's not a lot of hope coming because over the next three weeks, the Eagles get the forty nine Ers, the Steelers, and the Ravens. Now, a lot of people might think that the forty nine Ers are beatable because they have so many injuries across that defense. But let me ask you this, are you I'm going to confidently play Carson Wentz this week against the forty nine Ers. The answer to that is absolutely not. So if you're not gonna play Hi against the forty nine Ers, then all of a sudden, let's say that he has a decent game, are you gonna playhim against the Steelers in the Ravens. No. In most leagues, Carson Wentz can be dropped by Will Fuller and Brandon Cooks. The Texans had an atrociously tough schedule to start the season. They had Kansas City, then Baltimore, and then Pittsburgh. All three of those teams ranked well above average and adjusted Fantasy points allowed to wide receivers last year, and I don't think it would be surprising at all if they were some of the best teams against wide receivers this year. That portion of the schedule for the Texans is now done. Now the Texans get to face the Vikings and the Jags over the next two weeks, and they don't really have a scary wide receiver matchup until like late November. That means that you should be buying the Texans pass catchers. So let's start with Will Fuller. He was injured in Week two, but in weeks one in three, Fuller saw a thirty two two point three percent in an eighteen point five percent target chair, and he had two usable performances. He's gonna be tougher to acquire, but I do think he is worth it right now, given this tough portion of the schedule is now out of the way. But to me, I think Brandon Cooks is a better value to trade for right now. He's been relatively silent production wise, but he's had almost a twenty percent target chair so far this year with a nearly identical average depth of target to Will Fuller. He's just not getting the same type of buzz, so he's gonna be easier to acquire. I just think that overall we should be bullish on this passing attack moving forward. Add Jordan Aikins, and speaking of this Texans passing attack, Jordan Akins is getting a lot of run this year. He ranks in the top ten and routes run at the tight end position. That's according to Pro Football Focus, and he's seen a decent enough thirteen percent target chair that's a top twenty number at the tight end position. Again, the schedule is opening up for Houston, they should start to score more points, so I think that Jordan Akins could go from being a streamer to being a potential potential every week starter. Add Brandon Ayuk. So another rookie wide receiver with a big Week three was Brandon Ayuk. He played seventy two percent of San Francisco snaps for the second straight week, and he scored over twenty one PPR points. In week two, Ayuk had about an eleven percent target chair in week three that was about twenty three percent. I'm all about this. Maybe this had something to do with Nick Mullins being under center, or maybe it had something to do with Raheem Mostert not playing in that game, because Ayuk did get three carries on the ground and he scored on one of those carries. But regardless, it's tough to ignore Ayuk's fit in this offense. He's at yards after the catch wide receiver. He can be a bully and that's exactly what works in this Kyle Shanahan offense. So I'm pretty high on Ayuk moving forward. Sell juju Smith Schuster. Now, look, there's lots and lots of love and there should be lot and lots of love for Jujus Smith Schuster out there. He's fun, he's got a great personality, and he has one of the best age adjusted career beginnings that we've seen at the wide receiver position. And thus far, he's lived up to expectation in Fantasy football. He's been a wide receiver one through three weeks. But that's sort of why I'm selling him right now. One of the issues for Jujus so far is that the Steelers have spread the ball around. Now. Deontay Johnson was easily leading the team in targets before he got a concussion in Week three, but James Washington and Chase Claypool currently combined for over twenty two percent of Pittsburgh's targets, and we saw Eric Ebron with a season high twenty percent target share in Week three. Because there's a lot of good pass catchers in this offense, Juju's target share is currently under eighteen percent. Among top twenty wide receivers right now in Fantasy football, only Mike Evans and Allen Lazard have lower target shares. Now, this obviously means that Juju's just getting by on touchdowns, and he kind of is. He scored three times this year despite ranking well outside the t top thirty in receiving yards. Yards correlate to touchdowns, and over the last decade, it's taken wide receivers on average one hundred and sixty four yards to score a touchdown. Juju's current rate is a touchdown on every fifty three yards. Now, I would feel fine about Juju if he was getting lots and lots of targets in the red zone and in the end zone, or if he was getting targets down the field. We want high average depth of targets for our wide receivers and we want them to score touchdowns. That hasn't exactly been the case for Juju though. He does have two end zone targets, but he still ranks outside the top fifteen within that statistic. And when it comes to air yards, we're not seeing them for Juju. He's got one of the lowest average depth of targets among all relevant wide receivers, and he's outside the top one hundred among all skill position players in total air yards. It's just unlikely that he's going to be able to maintain his current touchdown rate given the way that Pittsburgh is using him. I think that the way people are viewing Juju is way higher than how they should be valuing him. Ad rex Burkhead and Damian Harris. Rex Burkhead went off in Week three. That was one of the biggest surprises of Week three. He had six carries, forty nine rushing yards, a pair of touchdowns on the ground, and then he had ten targets, seven receptions and forty nine receiving yards and then a receiving touchdown. Now it's tough to buy into something like this happening again because James White wasn't playing in this game. He was out because of that horrible, horrible family tragedy that he's dealing with. If White was in this outing for Burkehead likely does not happen. I do think he's worth an AD this week, But don't sleep on Damien Harris from this same New England backfield. He was getting buzzed throughout the summer, don't forget that. But he's been sidelined with a hand injury to start the season. But this week he's able to come off injured reserve, and just given how the New England backfield is so muddied, he's at least got a shot to take over. Now we know how the Patriots backfield has operated historically. I think that probability is in Damien Harris's favorite to actually take over that backfield, but it's in his range of outcomes, and that's what makes him worth a speculative AD. And I think that if you're thinking about long term viability, I would probably be adding Damien Harris over Rex Burghead this week. Maybe that's a hot take, but it's truly how I feel ad T Higgins. So I talked about T Higgins as the sixteenth transaction last week, and things really came to fruition fast. In Week three, Higgins caught five of nine targets for forty yards and two touchdowns. But aside from the touchdowns, aside from his production, the most important thing about this performance was his peripheral numbers. He played the most snaps at wide receiver for Cincinnati, and he ran the most routes, and he had the second highest target share. Every peripheral number has shifted up for T Higgins week over week. He should be rostered in most fantasy leagues moving forward. By DJ Moore. So I sent a tweet on Sunday night in response to a mention, and it said the Dj Moore hate is strictly the result of zero touchdowns. He's currently ninth among wide receivers in yards. That was meant with some backlash, but it told me that even though this is a repeat transaction from a previous week, I still think it needs to be stated. DJ Moore's peripheral numbers actually look pretty freaking good, right, now he's one of just a handful of players with a target share above twenty five percent, and he's got two hundred and thirty nine are yards, which is a top ten number in the league. He just hasn't scored. And even though he's seen just one target from within his opponent's ten yard line, he's been targeted three times in the end zone this season. That's one of the higher marks in the NFL. It's higher than the aforementioned Juju Smith Schuster. So just to reiterate, I'm bringing up more because people seem very frustrated with his performance through three weeks, and I get it. He's not winning you weeks right now. And his wide receiver team mate Robbie Anderson, who went undrafted in a lot of leagues, he's out performing him. That's frustrating, But just be patient. There are better days ahead. Ad Carlos Hide. So there's a chance that Chris Carson does play here in Week four against Miami. He had a knee brus in that game against Dallas. Now, it's great that Seattle's optimistic, but number one, there's still a chance that he doesn't go. And number two, the Seahawks are touchdown plus favorites against the Dolphins this weekend according to Fandels Sportsbook. So if Chris Carson isn't totally one hundred percent, they could easily just split that backfield up and give Carlos Hide the rock, especially if they have a lead. Carlos Hide has been the number two running back there and he could get more run than usual this week if Chris Carson misses some time ad Scottie Miller, Justin Watson, and Tyler Johnson. So Chris Godwin is now dealing with a hamstring issue and that could bring more opportunity to the other wide receivers in this offense. The problem is, picking up a wide receiver in this offense is not the same thing in the world. We fortunately have a one game sample already this year of Chris Godwin not playing because he had that concussion in Week two. Justin Watson was actually one who benefited most from Chris Godwin not being on the field, and it's because Godwin plays a lot of his snaps from the slot. He's played seventy two point four percent of his snaps from that area of the field this year according to Pro Football Focus. Justin Watson is a slot guy, So he's the player who benefits in that Week two game without Godwin, Watson spent a similar number of snaps in the slot. The problem is Justin Watson has a shoulder injury. He didn't play on Sunday and that led to Tyler Johnson. Remember that guy, the ultra productive rookie wide receiver. He got some action against Denver. He played thirty one percent of the team snaps. So if Justin Watson were to miss Week four, Tyler Johnson could be the starting slot receiver for Tampa Bay. So that leaves us with Scotty Miller. His snapshare might not rise dramatically without Chris Godwin, but he'll probably have more opportunity to see targets. So depending on your league size, all three players should be on your radar this week. I think that Scottie Miller is probably the safest ad but if Godwin's expected to miss more than just this week, then the slock guys are also in play and you can probably get them for pretty cheap sell. Adrian Peterson. So as annoying as the Patriots backfield is that I talked about earlier, the Lions might have the most obnoxious backfield in the entire NFL, at least for fantasy purposes. During the first two weeks of the season, DeAndre Swift led that Detroit backfield and snap raid. On Sunday, Swift was on the field for just nine percent of the team snaps. Adrian Peterson, meanwhile, had sixty percent of the team snaps and eighty eight percent of the team's running back rushes. That rush share was one of the highest marks in Week three. You've got to be kidding me, you know, typically this would be a sign of good things to come for Adrian Peterson. But because this backfield has already just been so unpredictable, there's been such a rotation of running backs, I'm staying as far away from this situation as I possibly can. Maybe I would trade a bench player for DeAndre Swift just for the upside, but at this point you can't reasonably trust these running backs week in and week out. Add Ryan Fitzpatrick. I love Ryan Fitzpatrick. This week, the Seattle defense has not been very good this year. No team is allowed to highre net yards per attempt rate, and only the Falcons have given up more fantasy points to the quarterback position. Yes, there's some noise in those statistics, but it's a beatable defense. Now. Enter Ryan Fitzpatrick. According to Fanduels Sportsbook, the Dolphins are six and a half point underdogs this week and the game has a fifty four point over under. There should be plenty of scoring, and after two straight strong performances from Fitzpatrick, I'm into him this week. I think he's the top streamer. Add to Denver Broncos defense. Just play a defense against the Jets. It's really that easy. The Broncos are three point favorites this week. The game against the Jets has a thirty nine and a half point over under. We saw what the Jets offense did for the Colts defenses past week. You're streaming defenses against the Jets week in and week out, and the Denver Broncos are currently widely available. The sixteenth transaction this week that you can't get in my fifteen Transactions column over on number fire dot com is pretty similar to last week. It's to add Ola maadees A Kias, Chase Claypool, and Gabriel Davis. These are all ads based on injury, but I think that Claypool and Davis are decent stashes now. On Sunday, Russell Gage left the Falcons game with a concussion. The same happened with Deontay Johnson for the Steelers. That allows Zakias to see a sixteen percent target share, and Claypool went from a thirty percent snapshare in week one to a thirty seven percent snapshare in week two to a seventy six percent snap share in week three. So just keep an eye on those injuries and keep an eye on the injury to John Brown two. He hurt his calf in Sunday's game, and that helped Davis go from a forty nine percent snapshare in week one and a thirty six percent snapshare in week two to a seventy four percent one in week three. So that's ol made is Akias, Chase Claypool, and Gabriel Davis. That's going to do it for today's show, though. Thanks to all of you for listening. If you've get subscribed to the Late Round podcast, make sure you are by searching for it pretty much anywhere podcasts can be found, and no forget to follow me on Twitter at Late Round QB. Thanks everyone. I will be back tomorrow with the ten Trends Episode