873: A Strong Quarterback Class

00:00:02
Speaker 1: This is the Label podcast with your host JJ zacherthas j Jake Zacher REFA.

00:00:12
Speaker 2: What's up everyone, It's JJ Zacharyeson in this episode eight hundred and seventy three of the Late Round Fantasy Football podcast sponsored by Underdog Fantasy. Thanks for tuning in. I do this show every year with my friend jim sonis Sanus, who's a managing editor of digital media at Fandal Research. He puts together a great article on statistically superior quarterbacks every draft season, and he's come away with a lot of hits through the years. So on today's episode, I ask him about that article, about that study, and I ask him questions about this year's draft class. I know that Late Round Perspectives is a thing now, and you're probably wondering why this isn't just a Perspective's episode, and that's a valid question. Perspectives is a show that covers a wide variety of topics, and I might get lost in converse with the guest a bit. This episode is to the point. It's one overarching topic, and it's in the standard Late Round podcast format, no fluff, and to the point. Over the next three weeks you'll be hearing from other analysts who covered the NFL draft, and I'll be doing an episode on running backs and wide receivers to go along with this one. It's something I've done each year on the show to give you guys something a little different as opposed to just hearing my takes and my takes only on these players. Now, before I get into the interview with Jim, don't forget to check out Underdog Fantasy. I've been drafting over there over the last month or so. It's giving me a nice early prep on the fantasy football season. I've got tons of slow best Ball drafts going on at all times, where I've got an eight hour clock with each pick. Now, if you haven't played best Ball before, the idea is simple. You draft a fantasy football team and you can do it in minutes. There's no waivers, there's no trades, there's no lineup setting. Your team is optimized for you in season based on how players perform. Drafts are happening right now over there, and you can use the information that I share on here or am my prospect Guide, or any future information because I am going to do more Best Ball content. You can use that info to help you draft. If you're new to Underdog, you want to check it out, make sure you use promo code late Round when you sign up. If you do that, you get a deposit matchup to one hundred dollars. Again, that's promo code late Round. Head to Underdog Fantasy dot Com or download the Underdog Fantasy app to sign up. Now, let's talk to Jim about this year's quarterback class. So, Jim, we do this episode every year, but for anyone who hasn't listened to this episode in the past, you do a study where you analyze that particular year's draft class to find which quarterbacks are statistically superior. Can you sort of talk through that study and the things that you're looking for?

00:02:49
Speaker 1: Yees, I think the keyword there is statistical. It does not include the sentiment of scouts, and like that matters. But like I'm not a scout, and so I know that I'm not going to able to like build a model that can be like that. But I think that the model I use, which looks at just players cleegiate efficiency, their age, and their experience level, it does test pretty well and it can do a pretty good job of identifying a risk level. Like it's not going to say this guy's a bus it's not going to say this guy's a definite hit, but it can identify risk level in players beyond just draft capital. You know, it's hard to check all the boxes of getting players who are young efficient in experience because it's hard to you know, be both young in experience unless you're starting as a true freshman and declaire early and stuff like that. But the closer you get to checking those boxes, the more likely you are to succeed. And again, like opinions, the scouts matter because they're good at what they do, but like I want to focus on what I'm good at, and like just from a true numbers perspective, you can get a lot of useful information by looking at this. So if you look at since twenty ten, there have been forty three quarterbacks who have been first round picks, and of those forty three, fourteen of ranked inside the top two of number fires total net expected points in one third of their qualified season. So TOTALNP looks at expected points added throughout the year, including what you do as a rusher, and if you're in the top ten in a third of your qualified seasons, that's what I would call a quality first round pick as a quarterback. So you're looking at guys like Patrick Mahomes, Justin Herbert, Josh Allen, Lamar Jackson, Joe Burrow now CJ. Stroud two and that's kind of what you're looking for here. So you look at those fourteen guys. On average, they've ranked in the eighty second percentile of my pre draft model, and again that does not include draft capital at all, that is just based on their college resume. The less successful first round picks are in the sixty nine percent of eighty second for the successes, sixty nine for the less successful guys. So you do get a decent gap between the successful first round picks and the less successful guys based on just looking at their collegiate resumes. There are some obvious misses like the model did not like shockingly Josh Allen or Jordan Love, but they're the only guys in the successful bucket who ranked below the eightieth percentile in the pre draft model, So you know there will be misses, but for the most part, you tend to see a higher hit rate out of guys with better rankings than the model. There are guys in the opposing side too, like Baker Mayfield, Marcus Mariota my model of them. They didn't pan out, but even just the numbers can give you at least a good idea of the risk level of players who do wind up being first round pick.

00:05:30
Speaker 2: Let's talk about that model a little bit and how it relates to this twenty twenty four class. Spoiler alert to anyone who has not checked out your article and read about it, but you know, pre draft. Again, we have to be very clear that this is not with draft capital embedded or anything like that, but predraft. Jayden Daniels is the QB one in this class according to your numbers. That doesn't mean that you're necessarily ranking him that way, but what makes his profile sort of stand out that much? Because I was kind of shocked to see him as the quintstential QB one because I know that, you know, age is a factor in what you're looking at, and he's been in college for a decent amount of time. So tell me what the model and the numbers really liked about Jayden and Daniels.

00:06:14
Speaker 1: Yeah, it surprised me too because of the age factor. I know how important that is for the model, So I was pretty surprised when that happened. But there are a couple of key points that push Daniels up. The first one is that he was a psychopath in terms of efficiency. This year, he had a ninety five point seven total QBR. He was one of only two players in the entire nation who were above ninety and that number adjusts for a schedule, it adjusts for sacks, like you hear a lot about the pressure to sack rate for Jadeen Daniels and like that number specifically as high. But he doesn't take a ton of sacks overall as a player because he can get out of sacks with his legs and stuff like that. He also averaged thirteen point six adjusted yards per attempt that tied the all time record, and that number does not account for his rushing, So just passing this dude was insanely efficient. So that's the big thing, is the efficiency, Like he obviously emphatically checks that box. The second thing is that he compensates for being older by being very experienced. He said, we've known about him for a while. It's because he started as a true freshman. He had fifty five games of ten plus pass attempts, and that's the number of the cutoff that I used to the model because like there are some guys who will like JJ McCarthy is a true freshman, he would kind of spell Kid McNamara and like they would use both those guys. You don't want to count that the exact same as a guy who is like the true true starter for his team. So if a guy were older and less experienced, like a Mitchell Trubisky Carson Wentz, it mean that they were not good enough to get on the field right away, and that'd be a red flag. But Daniels was a four star recruit, played his entire career, and I think that does help him here for sure. And the third thing is that he's not as old as perception, even though he was a five year starter in college. Like if you're looking at him relative to guys in this class, he's only ten months older than Caleb Williams, who was a third declaire, so he's a true junior. Daniel's a fifth year senior, but there's actually less than a year between those guys in terms of their age. He's also point six young years younger than Michael Pennix. He is pointed eight years younger than Bo Nicks, even though I think he and bo Nicks are in the same class. So, yes, he is old, and that is a downside for Daniels, but he's so experienced and so efficient that he overcomes that in the model. He's actually the top ranked model in my models looked at for any quarterback invited the combine since twenty ten, So the model does love him. I do think there are good counterpoints to him, Like people whose opinions I respect a lot, are concerned about Daniels. He's a bit light, you know, things like that. Maybe not the best anticipatory thrower. He does run a bit too much when pressured. He does get sacked when pressured. Played with an awesome supporting cast, as you know, looking at the wide receiver numbers, but he put up historic numbers with that cast, even before you account for the rushing. So I'm really lad. Personally, the NFL seems to like Daniel's slot.

00:09:03
Speaker 2: Yeah, I think there's often times where we almost double count the good supporting cast thing where you know, like like Daniels did what he had to do with the weapons that he had, we can't necessarily discount that. I mean, we can give it context, of course, but we can't just totally discount something like that. Let me ask you, because you brought up the pressure to sack thing, Yeah, is that something you know? I mean, I don't know if you've even dug into it or not, so you don't have to Yeah, okay, So is that something that you're overly concerned about? Or is this do you think that this is something of you know, sort of an arbitrary cutoff thing that people were posting out there on Twitter and such and saying, look at this group of quarterbacks who were bad in pressure to sack and then look at this group of quarterbacks who were good within the metric and it just being kind of arbitrary, or do you think that there is something there and that we should be somewhat concerned.

00:09:53
Speaker 1: I think it's a concern. It's a red flag for sure, but that does not mean you totally write the person off. Because like, let's say you just look at first round picks. They're pressure to sack rates in twenty ten, the highest one is justin fields and like that, you know he didn't pan out. Marcus Mariota is up there, Baker Mayfield is up there. Guys. My model wift on have had high pressure to sack numbers, So like that's something to keep in mind for sure, But then get a bit lower, you get to Justin Herbert. Justin Herbert has the fifth highest pressure to sack rate in his final year of any first round pick since twenty ten. Joe Burrow is two spots below him. Then it's Lamar Jackson, then it's Josh Allen. Like, these are very successful players, and now their numbers were not as high as Jade Daniels was, but they were They had a higher than average pressure to sack rates in their final years in college. Final year, you know, you want to look at their entire career to expand the sample and stuff like that. But I looked at it, and if you look go back to like the successful first round picks versus less successful ones, it was about the same. They're pressure to sack rate in college. So I looked into it. So I think it's a valuable stat It does correlate well with the NFL numbers, and that's why smart people bring this number up. But when you look at total QBR does account for overall sacks like accounts for are the expected points lost on sacks? I think that I was okay, comfortable with excluding it from the model, and I didn't look into it because I thought it was good analysis people were doing. But when I dug into it, I didn't see enough to make it a thing that I wanted to factor in individually versus like keeping it be a contextual stat like I look at numbers, was the top fifty defenses BISP plus I look at numbers on third and six or longer, like obvious passing situations. I look at those numbers, but they're not specifically in the model. I think that for me, pressure to sack rate will be something that's similar where I look at it, but it's not specifically independently in the model.

00:11:36
Speaker 2: Any concerns with Jayden Daniels being a Justin Fields type and kind of going down that path.

00:11:43
Speaker 1: Totally, I think that, like there's always that risk for sure, and that's why you want to factor in what the scouts say, because like they're good at what they do as well. But his issues that he had those were president in college as well, and like my model had Justin Field's a bit lower. He was ninetieth percentile on the pre draft, so like, you know, a good prospect, but like not like amazing or anything like that. So there were some concerns there too. So personally I'm okay with him. I'm glad the NFL buys in because like if he were to like let's say, worst case scenary falls during the draft, then I'm okay upping those concerns. For me, it's more so just like a red flag and a thing to consider, But it's not a situation where I jump ship on him just as a result of the pressure to sack numbers.

00:12:30
Speaker 2: Yeah, and from a fantasy perspective, I mentioned this on the Quarterback episode that I did last week on quarterbacks that appreciate and how they appreciate in value. Justin fields from year one to year two dropped only nine spots in startup ADP despite having a pretty horrific passing season year one and really not being the Justin fields that even from a fantasy perspective that we saw, you know after that. So yeah, I mean I think that at the very least, this is making me feel pretty comfortable in investing in Jaden Daniels because we know the upside be really immense in fantasy, and then along with that, we know that there's sort of this like embedded floor from a value perspective. Then also you're saying all these nice things about him as a quarterback itself and him being basically the best quarterback that the model pre draft is seen. That's all very very good news. The other quarterback in this class that's getting more steamed, more hype than Jayden Daniels is Kleb Williams. He has extremely unbelievable odds right now to go first overall. Sounds like it's a lock that it's gonna happen unless something crazy happens off the field. I would assume. So Caleb Williams going first overall to the Bears obviously a great landing spot. But that's not something that we're you know, analyzing here per se. Is it warranted that he would be the first overall pick. Some people are talking about him being generational. Now, I don't think this is the same from a perception standpoint, the same thing or situation that even people felt about, even maybe a Trevor Lawrence, Like, I feel like people were maybe a little bit more bolish, like everyone consensus wise being more bullish on a guy like telaw And then you know Andrew Locke was like a different on a different level in terms of everyone just really being into him. There are haters out there. There are Caleb Williams haters.

00:14:10
Speaker 1: You know.

00:14:10
Speaker 2: I know that some of it is the way that he handles himself, but also you know there's people like Merril Hajj who come out there and say that he has a lot of flaws to his actual game at quarterback. Is the model seeing something similar.

00:14:24
Speaker 1: Not to that extent. It doesn't human as being like a generational quarterback, but it does human is being like well worth the first overall pick, and like if I were the Bears, I would do it, Like I'm happily taking Kleb Williams first overall if I get that option. He rings eighty eighth percentile by the model, again looking at just his numbers, and since twenty ten, there have been ten quarterbacks who have gone first overall, and the average ranking for those guys in the pre draft model was ninetieth percentile, So Williams is right there. He has thirty five games with ten plus pass attempts, which is a very good number for his age. He had a total QBR in the eighties in three separate seasons, which is just like really really fun. It's only three seasons in college total QBR of eighty or higher all three seasons. That's really really good. And he put up good efficiency numbers despite playing with like high school level defense, just like he's playing in negative gamescripts the entire time. Almost half his past attempts came while trailing last year. This guy had to be superman, and like he did step up at these number of times and doing exactly that. So he looks good by the numbers overall, and he looks better when you consider the context of he had to be the entire team for USC this year, and that's why I'm higher on him than the model. But again the model does like him too. Going back to the successful first round picks, on average, they were in the eighty first percentile of the model and Williams in the eighty eight so he's well above that, and a lot of the guys in his range of the model had been superstars. Patrick Mahomes also eighty eight percent style. You hear that comp of like he's Mahomes because like they play kind of similarly and like they're almost the exact same of the model, So like he's not Mahomes because no one who mahomes, but like they're pretty similar. Joe Burrow in ninety second percentile, Lamar Jackson ninety first. So he's a really good company and when you watch him, you understand why he gets this buzz. So the model likes him a lot. I like him a lot. I think that matters. You mentioned Lawrence. Lawrence was a ninety fourth percentile by my model in the pre draft process, so a bit higher. He was younger than Williams and good efficiency numbers two. You mentioned Luck, he actually was above Luck because Luck didn't have like the best efficiency numbers. He was about to say Agexandrew Luck eighty seven percentile for Luck. So if you're looking at like the quote unquote like generational guys, he grades out right between Luck and Lawrence from a numbers perspective. But either way you slice it, he is deserving it being the first overall pick in this draft.

00:16:48
Speaker 2: Do you think there's any chance that in a in a super flex rookie draft you would consider taking Jaden Daniels because the rushing upside, the mobility over Caleb Williams.

00:16:59
Speaker 1: I would consider it for sure. I think you kind of have to given the rushing just because like that's so valuable from a floor perspective, and like, if you're talking about ceiling for fantasy, you want both the rushing but also the passing, and like there is a very legitimate outcome where Jade Daniels gives that too. So if I were drafting like right now, like in like before the draft, I would go Williams first overall one oh one for super flex because the draft capital with him is much more firm, and I love what he does, so I would take him one point zho one. But let's say, you know, like most rookie drafts were drafting after the draft, and Daniels goes second overall to Washington, and my rookie draft is after that, I'm gonna take Daniels if he goes second overall in the draft because you have a good supporting cast there. The scrambling stuff I talked about before is actually a feature in fantasy rather than being a bug. He ran for one thousand and one and thirty four yards last year before you take out the before you add back in the numbers the yards lost you to sacks and ten touchdowns. So like he's Randall Cunningham and in fantasy. I think that's pretty tough to turn down. So if the draft plays up the way it's currently projected to, I would take him. I would take Daniel's one oh one, but I'm not going to push back. And anybody wants to go Williams because like again, this Sky sentiment is very high in him that the model does like him. But personally I go Daniel's one oh one Williams one O two, and I take both those guys well above the wide receivers for superflex Dynasty.

00:18:26
Speaker 2: Nice, I love. So what if what if Daniels went to New England at one O three? Would you would would that be the breaking point to then go Caleb over Jaden Daniels?

00:18:35
Speaker 1: Yeah? I just I the the idea of that poor man being Jennison to that supporting cast makes me makes my heart hurt. So please Washington do the right thing, save him?

00:18:47
Speaker 2: Yeah exactly. Yeah, Yeah, he'll be He'll be thrown into Mario Douglass and kJ Osbourne versus you know, Terry McLaurin and Joon dots in there. Yeah, let's talk about Drake May. He has decent odds to go second. Overall, I think that you know, right, now it's kind of the markets have kind of gone back and forth with these two guys over the last month or so. How is May looking with your process and what should fantasy managers be concerned about with him?

00:19:12
Speaker 1: Yeah, so I talked before about risk level, and like that's kind of what I'm trying to identify with the model, is like what's the risk level of certain guys? And May isn't a riskier zone in the model. He ranks in the seventy fifth percentile. And there are more first round picks who have flopped in that range than what you see with like the guys above the eightieth percentile. So overall, there have been nine first round quarterbacks who have ranked between the sixty fifth percentile and the eighty fifth percentile, And again, he's right in the middle of that zone. And those guys are Trey Lance, Dwayne Haskins, Paxton Lynch, Blake Bortles, Justin Herbert, Tim Tebow, Kenny Pickett, San Darnold, and Mitch Trubisky. Herbert is the only hit in that entire range. May is down there because he's just a two year starter, and as we've seen with guys like Darnald, Trubisky and Trey Lance range that makes you a lot more volatile. May also didn't have like elite efficiency numbers both last year. Like I know, we talked a lot about what he did last year he was acc Player of the Year, but also this year. And it's easy to understand when to look at the circumstances, like they had a very poorly designed offense. I think at unc so like it's understandable, but like that's why he's more volatile in the eyes of the Model. But like I talked before about the guys who have hit despite having very bad profiles in the Model, and May possesses a lot of the same traits those guys do. So Josh Allen is the Model's biggest with and May is also a big dude who is super athletic, which is the same boxes that Josh Allen checks. He also occasionally dives for a first down despite being fifteen yards behind the sticks. Like that's Josh Allen. I don't know what he's doing, Like he's like all right, dude, Like I love the confidence, but like you're not gonna make it there. So he has some psychopath in his game, and like I like that that's fun. He's He's a young guy similar to Josh Allen and Jordan of May will be twenty one point seven years old on day one of the draft average first round or twenty two point two years old, Josh Allen twenty one point nine and Jordan Love twenty one point four. So again there's reason to think his efficiency stats can understand how good he is, and I think that he has a wider range of outcomes as a result that that is both in the negative sense with the higher risk, but also he could be the best quarterback in this draft class because of those physical traits that he has. So the ceiling is there, but the floor is also lower, and that's fine. I'd rather swing for the fences and miss than go with someone who can't do some of the stuff that Drake May can do. But it's worth keeping in mind that players of his mold have busted a bit more often than guys in the Williams and Daniels zone half in the eyes of the model.

00:21:47
Speaker 2: Let's talk about another younger prospect in this class. JJ McCarthy an elite first name for the record, Jaja of course, Yeah, he's getting a ton of steam right now. I mean, I feel like in December and November people were not even remotely talking about him. And look, I'm not like the biggest college football guy in season. I do a lot of my work, you know, once January hits. But you know, it didn't seem like he was gonna be a potential second overall pick in the draft back then. That didn't seem like in his range of outcomes at all. But clearly it's in his range of outcomes now that this could happen. What do you see about his profile and how legit does he look in comparison to even someone like Drake May.

00:22:28
Speaker 1: Yeah, the model loves JJ McCarthy. It likes him a lot. He's ninety fifth percentile, which ranks second this year behind just Jayden Daniels. He is the youngest guy this group at twenty one point three years old, but he's also very experienced. Ten plus pass attempts in twenty nine games. Some of those were as a true freshman, even when he was not starting spelling K McNamara, and I think that's important. Like you hear stories now about how Jim Harbaugh was, Like, Okay, I think that McCarthy's better, But all appedsa coaching staff who wants McNamara out there and let him play. And they had like this petition when he was a sophomore and they let him both play, and McCarthy won that job pretty emphatically. So he was earning playing time as a true freshman even if he was not starting. And as a true freshman he was very, very young, and he is also super efficient. I know we can talk about volume, but like McCarthy in eighty nine point two total KBR this year, which ran third in the nation, and the two guys ahead of him are two years older than him and three years older than him, so when you adjust for age, he was a monster. And every number, like every contextual number you look at, makes mcarthy even more fun. He had a thirteen point one adjusting yards per attempt on third and six or longer this year, so obvious passing situations where you can't say, hey, when he was dropping back to pass, people knew they were gonna run, because it's theither thought they were gonna run Sainces Michigan. They knew a pass was coming because it was third and long, and he's still shredded them. So that number once McCarthy is drafted, we rank third among first round picks since twenty ten. If we assume he does wind up going there, that third and long number the average or he also faced a really tough schedule. If you look at the average defensive ranking for teams that he faced, it was thirty eight point eight based on Bill Connolly's sp plus. The second lowest mark for guys in this class was Jayden Daniels at forty six point seven, Caleb Williams sixty four point six, and Drake May sixty one, so they faced a lot easier schedule than McCarthy did. By SP plus. McCarthy had a nine point two a YA against top fifty defenses by sp plus that ranked second in this class, behind again Daniels, who is a twelve point seven because he is a monster. Obviously, this is all just efficiency numbers, not volume, and the volume was low for McCarthy. But then look at what the Chargers are doing this offseason. They traded away Mike Williams, traded away Keenan Allen, they brought in Gus Edwards. They're gonna go ground and pound with Justin Herbert. Are we gonna say that Jim Harbon now thinks that Justin Herbert sucks because he's going to be a bit more run heavy this year. If we're gonna ding McCarthy for that, we got to apply that more broadly to So I want to beat Careth not to ding McCarthy too much just because they were run heavy last year, because they were very efficient when they did decide to throw. So from a numbers perspective, his profile is super legit. I had somenches with him from like a deep ball accuracy perspective, Like there were some throws we just kind of like missed deep that was So I'm a little bit lower on him than the model, but like I do like him a lot, and like, let's say, hypothetically, var are scenarios where he goes top four in the draft. I think that's the point where you consider taking him over the receivers in superflex rookie drafts. That might be wild, because like Marvin Harrison Junior and Lake Neighbors are amazing, but I think when you look at a guy this age, with this good of a statistical profile, with that kind of draft capital, you talked about how well quarterbacks retained value superflex, like that's gonna be pretty tempting if that does wind up happening.

00:25:45
Speaker 2: What do you think about JJ McCarthy hypothetical. JJ McCarthy goes to Minnesota at four, they trade up, they get ju Because that's been, that's been. I think that's the number one landing spot in terms of.

00:25:55
Speaker 1: What he's minus one of five to go to the Vikings right now?

00:25:57
Speaker 2: Yeah, yeah, yeah. And so you have McCarthy going to Minnesota, and let's just say Drake May goes to Washington second, you'd go McCarthy over May.

00:26:07
Speaker 1: Well, if he goes second, maybe not, that's it. Let's say if May goes to the Patriots, I would take McCarthy. If May goes second, then it's a tougher situation.

00:26:17
Speaker 2: Here, here's one. Here's one, here's one. JJ McCarthy goes to Minnesota, Jaden Daniels goes to New England.

00:26:24
Speaker 1: I'd probably still go Daniels for the rushing.

00:26:26
Speaker 2: Yeah, I think so.

00:26:26
Speaker 1: Like the situation, Like McCarthy is an amazing athlete, but he doesn't run like he doesn't want to, and like part of that's because he was hurt towards the back half of last year. Like I've seen a lot of analysts like bring up like McCarthy at the latter half of last year, like he he was hurt, Like his ankle was pretty messed up, and once he got healthy for the College Football playoff, like he had a run on third and long and I think the semifinal game and like he's like, You're like, oh, Duke and boogie and like that was kind of like the feature with him when he was younger. The reason he was on the field is because he was a crazy athlete. You're like, I know this has been brought up a lot, but like he's a hockey player. He has like kind of that like again, like that that fun mentality. So I wouldn't over ding him for some non elite numbers late in the year because he was banged up, and I think it's important to keep that in mind.

00:27:14
Speaker 2: Yeah, Bo Nicks, Michael Pennix. Those are two other quarterbacks that you know some people are into. Pennix had a good Pro day. It sounds like, at least from an athleticism standpoint, we really can't take forty times at pro days. We've taken with a grain of salt, obviously. Is there one of those two that you would prefer both what your models saying and then maybe what you would prefer from a fantasy perspective.

00:27:35
Speaker 1: Yeah, I prefer Nicks because he's willing to run like Penix had a good forty time, but he doesn't run like he just doesn't think he's willing, like he had a lot of injuries. It makes sense, Like I just think both are pretty low upside. My model likes Nicks a lot because he's experienced. He was very efficient his final couple years at Oregon. I just don't like him as much personally. I think this is the biggest deviation between me and the model as being lower on bow Nicks in the model, and a lot of it's because his eight out was six point eight yards, like that's that's so boring, Like I just don't want to draft boring players. Nobody else in this class the lower than nine point two for their aid hod only eleven percent of his throws went twenty plus yards downfield, and again, he's almost a full year older than Jaden Daniels, who is not young himself. So I think Nix is a decent shot to go in the first round. I took over four and a half quarterbacks and even money when that was available, But I just think his upside's pretty low. So like I would go run at wide receivers before I would take Nicks and super flex. Like, let's assume he goes twelfth to Denver. I don't know if that's realistic, but like, if he goes twelth to Denver, I am happily taking the receivers above him in first round Dynasty superflex drafts despite decent draft capital in a decent grading my model with Pennix, the model's pretty low on him, sixty six percentile doesn't run. He's old efficiency was just fine. So I prefer Nix and both these guys to be multiple tiers behind the four guys in this class.

00:29:02
Speaker 2: It's a pretty loaded class. I'm gonna ask you one more question. Are there any quarterbacks that we haven't talked about that we should keep an eye on.

00:29:08
Speaker 1: I would love to say yes, but no. The top six quarterbacks by consensus are the top six quarterbacks by my model, And like, you don't see a lot of non first round quarterbacks who wind up being viable, whether it be like real world NFL or for fantasy. There's been a lot of talk about Spencer Ratler twenty ninth percentile by my model, he's not a great athlete. Twenty three point six years old, the efficiency was not there. Michael Pratt is pretty young for his experience level, but like he had the easiest strength of schedule for any FBS quarterback drafted since twenty ten accordny SPP plus if he gets drafted, So like that's a pretty big discount there. Jordan Travis was really good this year before his injuries. Twenty four years old. So honestly, no, I really do think that the consensus top six are the six we should be focusing on, with the heaviest emphasis being on those top four because I think the all four of those guys are like really good first round picks. So, like, the depth of this class is awesome. So if you need a quarterback in super flex dynasty, which I typically do, I guess less so now because I had a lot of CJ. Stroud, But like I typically tend to need quarterbacks, it's a good year to need a quarterback.

00:30:15
Speaker 2: It is, indeed, Jim, thanks so much for hopping on and talking quarterbacks. Once again, for anyone who's not following Jim and his work, make sure you do so by finding at jim Sonas on Twitter and I'm on Twitter as well. At late Round QB. You can check out everything I'm offering, including The Prospect Guy, which is currently for sale, by heading to Lateround dot com. Now, I won't have a mailback episode for you guys this week, but I'll be getting a rewind episode to you on Friday, so you can look forward to that. Otherwise, you'll hear a brand new episode of the podcast next Tuesday, where I dig into the running back position with another special guest. I'll talk to you then you