676: Mailbag 9/16/22

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Speaker 1: This is the Late Podcast with your host JJ zachera Ja Ja zacher reson. What's up everyone. It's JJ zachar esin in this episode six hundred and seventy six of the Late Round Fantasy Football podcast sponsored by FanDuel. Thanks for tuning in. I've avoided COVID throughout the pandemic, but I ended up testing positive on Wednesday. So if I sound like I'm sick, it's because I'm sick. But the show must go on. Before we get into the mailback questions this week, though, I want to let you know that the Week two NFL Sunday Million is officially live on FanDuel. Showcase your NFL knowledge and construct your best nine player roster while staying under the salary cap. Then follow along using FanDuel's live scoring feature to compete for your share of two point five million dollars in cash prizes, including a cool one million dollar first place prize, all for just five dollars. Sunday's fast approaching, so head to fandel and submit your lineups today. Eligibility or frictions apply. Go to fando dot com or download the fandle app for more details. The first questions from Twitter this week it says, how worried are you about Cede Lamb until Dak returns. I think, like anyone else, I'm pretty worried. I know that in Cooper Rush's lone start against the Vikings last year, he ended up throwing for three hundred and twenty five yards. The Cowboys offense really didn't change that dramatically, and Cedee Lamb had one hundred and twelve yards on six catches, but that was also a one off game. There's a clear downgrade here, and I think that we have to be honest and that anyone who drafted Lamb this year was drafting him while making the assumption that he'd take a step forward. He was a really good prospect, but his pro rated target shaars over the last two years have been twenty percent and eighteen percent. That's really not special. But he was also playing on teams with pretty good weapons around him, so it was at least somewhat forgivable. It's just that, as I always say, talent leads to opportunity. If he was talented enough, you'd hope that he'd see a higher target share than that. In Week one, Fortunately, that target share was twenty seven percent. So that's good, but I think that Lamb suffers a pretty big downgrade here overall. Instead of him being in that second round range from a redraft perspective, with the potential to be a top three or top five Fantasy wide out, he shifts back into that round three or round four range, those types of wide receivers that we were drafting there, and there's a huge cluster there, so he's not separating himself nearly as much. So I'm worried because he gets a downgrade at quarterback and we still don't quite know if he's a leader or not. It would honestly be a little bit different if we knew that for sure, like if it was Devonte Adams or something. The next question is from Patreon. It's from Brad. It says, hey, JJ, how do you feel about Travis Etn rest of season? I know you've always liked James Robinson, but I feel like Etn will be a major pass catcher, especially if they're down. Not to be fair and to be totally transparent, I love Robinson the player, yes, but I wasn't out here pounding the t him this season. I was worried about that Achilles injury but he looked great in Week one, so I think it's only natural to now worry about Travis Etn. The thing is, though Etn was always drafted for his pass catching and playing that kind of role, he could have very easily scored a touchdown or two in that game last week, and if some of those things went his way, the narrative around Etn is probably a little bit flipped. And we have to keep in mind this was Travis Etn's first ever NFL game. There's gonna be some growing pains, and if you want to keep looking at this from a half glass full perspective, he saw twice as many targets as Robinson, he ran seven more routes than Robinson. He was one of two running macks to c three red zone targets this past week, and he gained a ton of yards in his four carries. He does have pass protection issues that he has to work on, but he at least can still be a PPR weapon. But look, as someone who liked Etn entering the season, seeing a good running back like Robinson looked like he wasn't even injured last year is not good for Etn overall. Like we shouldn't be blind to that fact. We get new information, we adjust based on that information, and if ETN continues to see this exact same workload moving forward, that's gonna be a problem. I do think that things are gonna get a little bit better, but we have to be cognizant that if he sees this exact workload week over week, that's not good. So to me, in PPR formats, treat Etn more like a mid to low end RB two for now. That's where I've got him in my rest of season rankings, which are available on the Late Round Fantasy Football Patreon. You can find that by going to Lateround dot com. This next question is about Taysom Hill. The first one's from Matt from Patreon and says, hey, jj, I've seen some sites this week calling Taysom Hill a must add after his fifteen point three point performance as the Saints are determined to get him involved. From where I'm sitting, he had one target in four carries and relied on wild efficiency. What's your take worth a pickup at the bottom of the bench. And then we also got a question from Twitter from Abdul two three four zero seven nine seven five that said, why is the industry continuing downplaying the potential upside of gadget player Taysom Hill. I could see his end of year range of outcome being ten touchdowns and eight hundred dollar purpose yards with thirty receptions. Huge fan of your work, JJ, thanks thanks so Clearly, the overall perception of Taysom Hill is just all over the place. It just depends where you're getting your information. But I have a process with what I do, and that process includes relying heavily on snap data, on routes, run data, and on just general usage data because that generally leads to fantasy points. So let's take a look at Taysom Hill. In Week one, he played sixteen snaps that ranked sixty seventh among all tight ends across the league. He touched the ball five times, but he only ran four routes. If we were to assume that this will be his usage this season, then not only is he going to be incredibly inconsistent week to week, but he then becomes entirely, and I mean entirely touchdown dependent. Like the tight end position is touchdown dependent to some degree to begin with, but at least in half her full PPR formats, you're getting some points from receptions. Running four routes isn't going to get you a ton of that. With Taysom Hill. Now, I totally understand that he's an efficiency machine and he's unlike other tight ends, and because the position is such a dumpster fire, he doesn't have to do that much to be relevant. But from a process standpoint, it's hard for me to sit here and tell you that a guy who played sixteen snaps is worthy to be on your fantasy roster. I can't tell you to play Taysom Hill after he played sixteen snaps, and maybe that change is moving forward. I'll adjust if need be, but if this is his usage, I can't imagine him being anything more than a streamer. The next question is from Twitter. It's from at Wicked underscore MANA. It says, is Herbert going to take the starting job from David Montgomery dot dot dot in your opinion? So back in the middle of August, I sent an email blast to Late Round Fantasy Football newsletter subscribers where I talked about three running back backups that I was targeting in drafts. One of those players that I talked about was Khalil Herbert. The other two were Kenneth Gainwell and Darryl Henderson for the record. Now, I don't say that to brag, though I know it's coming off that way after what we saw in Week one. I'm saying it because this question is specifically about Herbert, and I want to at least give you context of where my head was at entering the season. The expected outcome entering the season for the Bears backfield was that Montgomery would be the lead back, but I don't think the expected outcome was that he would be the bell cow that he's been the last couple of seasons. It was a new regime who didn't have any ties to him, and Herbert was really really good as a rookie. Montgomery was second and first and running back snapshare over the last two years. People were assuming that he was going to be able to maintain that, but the only way to go was down. That was a huge reason I faded him this year, and maybe that ends up being the wrong call, but that, combined with Herbert being a really good rookie, it made it a pretty easy call to fade Montgomery, at least in my eyes. According to my process, I think at this point we're more likely to see a split backfield of some sort as opposed to Herbert overtaking Montgomery. But after seeing the splits in Week one where Herbert saw more goal line rushes, Montgomery saw his lowest running back rusher since Week one of the twenty twenty season, where Herbert played about thirty percent of the team snaps. I do think if Herbert outplays Montgomery, which is possible given what we saw in Week one and last year, if that happens, this is entirely possible. It's not probable, but it's possible. We could see Khalil Herbert overtake David Montgomery. So Herbert's like this bench to flex player right now. Who has upside of that happening or the upside of a Montgomery injury. That's why he's a great player to have on your bench. The next question from Patreon is from Isaac. It says, with the loss of time Montgomery, do see a significantly increased chance that Ramandre Stevenson emerges as a high end RB two from this end, big uous backfield. Yes, I think this is possible. I know I talked about this on the ten Trends episode, and the Patriots really might just go with the rotation of Stevenson and Harris, giving both a similar number of looks through the air. But Stevenson was the better pass catcher as a prospect and as a rookie last year. He had multiple games with high target shairs. He had a twenty percent target share in a game, he had a fifteen percent share in a game, and then he had an eleven percent share in a game. Damien Harris has hit a double digit percentage target chair just twice in his entire career, with one of those instances happening last week. There were reports this offseason of Stevenson potentially playing that pass catching role, So I think it's very possible and it might not be a bad idea to say if you can buy him really low. After Week one, I still think that he's the better overall player than Damian Harris, even though I think that Harris is fine too. This next question is from Paul from Patreon. It says, what do you think Julio Jones's ceiling is after week one? I'll just give you my general thoughts on Julio. I thought he looked great in week one, and the peripherals were mostly all there. He was second in snap right a wide receiver, he had an eighteen and a half percent target share and only one fewer route run than Mike Evans. Without Chris Godwin, Julio could really smash. So I consider him more of a bye than a cell right now. Even when Godwin returns, we should consider him the team's wide receiver three, which can be fantasy relevant given the offense that he's in and who's throwing him the ball. So yeah, Julio Jones's stock is definitely up. This SYS question is from at Luke Falkenstern on Twitter. It says is Isaiah McKenzie's three targets something to expect all year or was this a low end game for him going forward? The problem for mackenzie in Week one was that they didn't use him as the full time slot guy. Jamison Crowder got some work too. McKenzie finished with a forty four percent snap share while Crowder was at thirty point five percent. Mackenzie ran twenty one routes, Crowder ran twelve, and that's compared to thirty eight to Gabe Davis and thirty to Diggs. So I don't think mackenzie can be relied on right now. You have to wait and see if he can capture that slot role all by himself for him to be reliable, and that seems up in the air right now. The last question this week is from Patreon. It's from Adam. It says, is Darryl Henderson a cell candidate? I'm not convinced he'll be the lead back all season? Yeah. Look, I mean, you guys have the same information that I do. For something like this, I say it all the time. This comes down to a coaching decision. If Sean McVay wants to throw Cam Akers on the field more, he'll throw Cam Akers on the field more, and then that hurts Daryl Henderson. If McVeigh is done with Akers, then Henderson looks like a potential league winning pick in fantasy football. We just have to use the evidence that we've got to make the smartest decision that we can make. My belief is that Henderson is the one that you want in this backfield. But Akers will see more work than he did in Week one. That's what I think happens. But there was a tweet from Beat writer Jordan Rodrigue this week that had a quote from McVeigh that I found really interesting. The tweet said, I love cam I want him to be able to be the guy that we're heavily able to lean on, both he and Darryl, and that's what it's god to be able to be. Jordan added the commentary that McVeigh said he knows Acres will respond the right way and that he believes in him, and then the McVeigh quote goes on to say, quote, I love the way that he's responded. I like the way that he went through the first walk through of the week. I like his focus and concentration in the meetings and expect that to translate to practice true confidence that he and Darryl are gonna do a very good job for us. The fact that he's throwing Darryl Henderson's name in there when asked about Cam Akers, I think is at least a little bit telling, like, yes, they're both running backs on his team, But if Acres was gonna be the guy for him, would he really be bringing up Henderson's name so often. I've said throughout the offseason that I think this backfield would be more split than the way the consensus thought. People would reference mcveigh's history with Bell cow backs, but the team also watched Todd Girly's career get completely derailed. They probably don't want to drive these dudes into the ground. But honestly, my initial reaction, I'll just be totally honest with you, Like, right after the game ended, I thought that Henderson was probably a sell candidate, and if you can get a ton for him right now, sure, But I don't think anyone's really paying up for Henderson right now because there's an assumption that Acres will end up seeing more work, which I do agree with. I'm just not sure that work is gonna be bell cow work because number one, look at how they handle things in week one, they gave Darryl Henderson a lot of work, and then number two, they may just not want a bell cow back in that backfield. If we're gonna bet on one of these backs being a true bell cow for fantasy purposes, I think evidence suggests that it's going to be Darryl Henderson. So if I have Henderson, I think right now he's just more of a hold. In general, I don't know if I would aggressively be buying unless I can get him for pretty cheap, and I probably wouldn't sell him right now if I have acres, the move is to cross your fingers. That's going to do it for today's show, though, Thanks to all of you for listening. If you get subscribed to the Late Round Fantasy Football podcast, make sure you are by searching for it pretty much anywhere podcasts can be found, and don't free to follow me on Twitter at Late Round QB. Remember to check out the Late Round Fantasy Football Patreon. As I say every episode otherwise, thanks for listening this week everyone, I really really appreciate it. I'll talk to you next week.