Black Friday Markets; Dollar Heads for Worst Week Since August

Bloomberg Audio Studios, podcasts, radio news. 0:00:10.039 --> 0:00:12.840 Good morning, I'm Nathan Hager and I'm John Tucker. Here 0:00:12.840 --> 0:00:14.440 are these stories we're following today. 0:00:14.560 --> 0:00:17.040 John, we begin with a look this morning at today's 0:00:17.079 --> 0:00:20.040 shortened trading session. The SMP is on course for its 0:00:20.079 --> 0:00:23.600 strongest months since February, part of an advance of twenty 0:00:23.640 --> 0:00:27.720 six percent in twenty twenty four, but uncertainty remains. Wednesday's 0:00:27.760 --> 0:00:31.760 economic data caused investors to recalibrate their rate cut bets, 0:00:31.880 --> 0:00:34.760 and looming tariffs or threatened tariffs, at least from the 0:00:34.760 --> 0:00:39.080 incoming Trump administration, is weighing on specific sectors. As you mentioned, 0:00:39.120 --> 0:00:42.159 treasury yields fell, the dollar is headed for its biggest 0:00:42.159 --> 0:00:45.839 weekly loss in three months. New York University professor Emeritith 0:00:45.920 --> 0:00:49.199 Nuriel Rabini Warren's tariffs could have for a broader effect 0:00:49.240 --> 0:00:50.239 on markets. 0:00:50.680 --> 0:00:53.920 Some of the economic policies of Trump may lead to 0:00:54.120 --> 0:00:57.960 high economic growth, to being pro business, keeping tax or 0:00:57.960 --> 0:01:02.560 it's low, I mean, but unfortunately many of the other 0:01:02.720 --> 0:01:05.880 policies are going to have an implication of hiring, inflation 0:01:06.400 --> 0:01:09.000 and lower economic growth. The first thing he has already 0:01:09.040 --> 0:01:13.840 announced is going to be tired against Mexico, Kinada, and China. 0:01:13.880 --> 0:01:15.959 And that's only the beginning. 0:01:15.760 --> 0:01:19.280 And why you Professor Meritis Nuriel Robedi expects traditional haven 0:01:19.360 --> 0:01:23.200 trades like the popular sixty to forty portfolio will underperform 0:01:23.400 --> 0:01:25.000 in an inflationary environment. 0:01:25.400 --> 0:01:25.560 Well. 0:01:25.560 --> 0:01:28.480 The uncertainty of Trump's economic policies, Nathan is causing some 0:01:28.600 --> 0:01:32.319 movement in currencies. The paes who gained following a call 0:01:32.360 --> 0:01:36.800 between President Electrump and Mexico's president this week. Trump posted 0:01:36.840 --> 0:01:39.160 on social media the call is, saying it was productive 0:01:39.280 --> 0:01:42.959 and that she agreed to stop migration through Mexico. She 0:01:43.120 --> 0:01:46.840 responded saying that Mexico is not necessarily closing its borders. 0:01:46.880 --> 0:01:51.240 Bloomberg spoke with DHL Group CEO to Bias Meyer about 0:01:51.280 --> 0:01:54.800 how businesses are managing it, sting he hasn't seen clear 0:01:54.880 --> 0:01:58.640 signals that anyone's front running the tariffs, hot to. 0:01:58.680 --> 0:02:01.560 Say, but there's volume in the last weeks. We see 0:02:01.560 --> 0:02:03.640 that in ocean freight, We see that in air freight. 0:02:04.040 --> 0:02:07.000 The year has been quite volatile. We had very strong 0:02:07.560 --> 0:02:10.680 exports out of China for many weeks on the ocean 0:02:10.680 --> 0:02:13.440 freight side, especially, so strong growth there, but it has 0:02:13.520 --> 0:02:15.839 been volatile. So it's hard to call out whether there's 0:02:15.919 --> 0:02:17.160 really a strong element of that. 0:02:17.400 --> 0:02:21.600 Dhl' CEO Tobias Meyer says he's seen diversification of supply 0:02:21.800 --> 0:02:24.200 chains in countries like Mexico and elsewhere. 0:02:24.200 --> 0:02:26.480 In currency moves, John the yen has breached one hundred 0:02:26.480 --> 0:02:30.000 and fifty against the dollar following inflation data out of Japan. 0:02:30.120 --> 0:02:33.280 Tokyo consumer prices came in hotter than expected, leading to 0:02:33.360 --> 0:02:38.239 increased bets on further policy normalization. It's raised expectations that 0:02:38.320 --> 0:02:40.880 the Bank of Japan will raise rates in December, with 0:02:40.919 --> 0:02:43.600 the swaps market factoring in a sixty one percent chance 0:02:43.600 --> 0:02:45.920 of a rate hike this month and checking the end 0:02:46.000 --> 0:02:48.560 right now, it is stronger against the dollar one fifty 0:02:48.600 --> 0:02:49.680 point one five. 0:02:50.120 --> 0:02:53.480 Looking more broadly at markets, Nathan wall Street's macro traders 0:02:53.520 --> 0:02:57.040 they're heading for their worst year since the pandemic. Let's 0:02:57.040 --> 0:02:59.919 get more on this from Bloomberg's Tiba out of Bio. 0:03:00.080 --> 0:03:03.280 Investor confidence in making big macro calls this year has 0:03:03.360 --> 0:03:07.360 dwindled as data surprises have whiplashed bets on central bank 0:03:07.440 --> 0:03:10.840 interest rate cuts, a too close to call us election, 0:03:11.280 --> 0:03:14.360 and the shock unwind of a once popular yen funded 0:03:14.400 --> 0:03:18.240 carry trade also rattled markets. As a result, some two 0:03:18.360 --> 0:03:22.160 hundred and fifty firms, including Goldman, Sachs and JP morgan 0:03:22.480 --> 0:03:25.799 A forecast to make seventeen percent less this year from 0:03:25.840 --> 0:03:29.560 trading G ten rates and nine percent less for currencies. 0:03:29.919 --> 0:03:34.239 That's according to analytics company Coalition Greenwich. The bright Spot 0:03:34.480 --> 0:03:37.600 currency trading is expected to pick up in twenty twenty 0:03:37.640 --> 0:03:40.840 five and twenty twenty six in London tiwa at abayo 0:03:40.920 --> 0:03:42.400 Bloomberg Radio all right. 0:03:42.280 --> 0:03:43.000 Tiwa, thank you. 0:03:43.080 --> 0:03:46.160 Bitcoin is headed back toward the one hundred thousand level 0:03:46.200 --> 0:03:49.840 as President Elect Trump embraces the broader crypto industry, ballstering 0:03:49.880 --> 0:03:51.800 the upward trend as a group of about a dozen 0:03:52.000 --> 0:03:56.680 US bitcoin ETFs from issuers including black Rock and Fidelity. 0:03:56.960 --> 0:03:59.720 They've attracted six point two billion dollars so far in 0:04:00.320 --> 0:04:03.120 that's according to data compiled by Bloomberg. The previous peak 0:04:03.160 --> 0:04:06.480 earlier this year was six billion dollars. In checking bitcoin 0:04:06.560 --> 0:04:08.880 right now, it's up one point four percent at close 0:04:08.920 --> 0:04:11.200 to ninety six thousand, five hundred. 0:04:11.200 --> 0:04:13.480 And turning back to the US now and a look 0:04:13.520 --> 0:04:16.800 at to big tech, the Federal Trade Commission announced it's 0:04:16.839 --> 0:04:21.159 open to an anti trust investigation of Microsoft, drilling into 0:04:21.200 --> 0:04:25.080 everything from the company's cloud computing and software licensing businesses 0:04:25.320 --> 0:04:30.000 to cyber security offerings and artificial intelligence products. Bloomberg Anti 0:04:30.080 --> 0:04:33.359 trust reporter Josh Cisco says this is the first step 0:04:33.360 --> 0:04:35.799 and what's expected to be a pretty long process. 0:04:36.360 --> 0:04:39.120 It's kind they've been working up to this for about 0:04:39.160 --> 0:04:43.440 a year, doing sort of informal information requests and interviews, 0:04:43.520 --> 0:04:48.240 and now this is the first time they've compelled Microsoft 0:04:48.320 --> 0:04:51.440 to turn over what will end up being a tremendous 0:04:51.480 --> 0:04:53.120 amount of information. 0:04:54.240 --> 0:04:58.200 Bloomberg's Josh Cisco says the emptc's investigation could slow in 0:04:58.279 --> 0:05:02.400 a second Trump administration was just promoting more deregulation. 0:05:02.240 --> 0:05:04.760 And elsewhere in big tech. John Australia has passed a 0:05:04.839 --> 0:05:09.159 law banning children under sixteen from social media platforms like Facebook, 0:05:09.240 --> 0:05:12.359 Instagram and TikTok. The tech companies will be responsible for 0:05:12.480 --> 0:05:15.320 enforcing the ban and will face fines if they don't comply. 0:05:15.880 --> 0:05:19.680 Polling suggests Australian citizens back the move, but some argue 0:05:19.680 --> 0:05:22.240 it will not achieve the aim of protecting children from 0:05:22.240 --> 0:05:25.960 harmful content. Here's Australia's Green Party Senator Sarah Hanson. 0:05:26.000 --> 0:05:30.240 Young doesn't actually make social media safer for young people. 0:05:30.560 --> 0:05:34.000 And that's the devastating thing about this, because we know 0:05:34.839 --> 0:05:38.200 that there are families who are struggling with this. We 0:05:38.279 --> 0:05:41.120 know there are young people who are struggling with their 0:05:41.120 --> 0:05:45.360 body image, their connection with their community, their peers, young 0:05:45.400 --> 0:05:50.120 people who are finding themselves addicted to these dangerous algorithms. 0:05:50.440 --> 0:05:51.480 But this bill doesn't do. 0:05:51.480 --> 0:05:51.920 Any of that. 0:05:53.360 --> 0:05:56.480 Sarah Hanson Young spoke there in the Australian Senate. Meta 0:05:56.839 --> 0:05:59.960 x and other social media platforms have also expressed strong 0:06:00.160 --> 0:06:01.560 opposition to this new law. 0:06:01.800 --> 0:06:04.440 And let's go to geopolitics now. After the US media 0:06:04.520 --> 0:06:07.240 had a cease fire deal between Israel and Lebanon earlier 0:06:07.240 --> 0:06:09.279 this week, there is hope for reaching a deal to 0:06:09.320 --> 0:06:13.200 free hostages held by Hamas in Gaza. Israeli Prime Minister 0:06:13.240 --> 0:06:16.799 Binya Benetna, who told Israel's Channel fourteen his government's doing 0:06:16.880 --> 0:06:19.800 many things, as he put it, to advance the freeing 0:06:19.839 --> 0:06:22.440 of the hostages. Met Ye, who says the killing of 0:06:22.440 --> 0:06:26.400 Hamas's leader, yeah, yeswinwar is opening an opportunity to reach 0:06:26.440 --> 0:06:27.000 an agreement. 0:06:27.200 --> 0:06:28.840 And there are new developments as well, John in the 0:06:28.880 --> 0:06:31.880 war in Ukraine, Russian President Vladimir Putin is warning his 0:06:32.000 --> 0:06:35.839 forces could strike decision making centers in Ukraine's capital Kiev 0:06:35.839 --> 0:06:39.719 with new ballistic missiles as retaliation for attacks on Russia 0:06:39.800 --> 0:06:44.120 with Western missiles. Russia launched an experimental intermediate range ballistic 0:06:44.160 --> 0:06:47.640 missile capable of carrying a nuclear warhead and says it 0:06:47.680 --> 0:06:49.400 may fire it again in combat. 0:06:49.800 --> 0:06:53.119 And finally, a look at Saudi backed Live Golf, which 0:06:53.320 --> 0:06:55.920 is said to be weighing a possible merger with Europe's 0:06:56.000 --> 0:07:00.200 DP World Tour. If that's successful, it would cement Live 0:07:00.240 --> 0:07:03.280 Golf's position in the golfing calendar and give the DP 0:07:03.400 --> 0:07:09.440 World Tour previously known as the DP European Tour, significant 0:07:09.480 --> 0:07:13.360 financial haft. The talks come as expectations of a deal 0:07:13.400 --> 0:07:16.920 between the Saudi Public Investment Fund and the PGA Tour 0:07:17.160 --> 0:07:22.520 they edge closer. And that brings us to five o 0:07:22.560 --> 0:07:24.000 eight on Wall Street Time Now for a look at 0:07:24.000 --> 0:07:25.800 some of the other stories making news in New York 0:07:25.920 --> 0:07:28.480 and around the world. Hem For that, we're joined by 0:07:28.760 --> 0:07:30.600 Bloomberg's Denise Pella Greeney. 0:07:30.680 --> 0:07:32.840 Denise, good morning, Good morning to you, John Well. 0:07:32.840 --> 0:07:36.480 Protesters clashed with police in the capital of Georgia in 0:07:36.680 --> 0:07:39.640 eastern Europe. That's after the ruling party announced it was 0:07:39.720 --> 0:07:43.760 delaying talks with the European Union on the country's potential 0:07:43.840 --> 0:07:47.520 membership in the plock for four years. Police used teargas, 0:07:47.600 --> 0:07:50.720 pepper spray, physical force early this morning as a group 0:07:50.720 --> 0:07:54.240 of people rallied near the Parliament building. Their forty three 0:07:54.280 --> 0:07:59.440 people detained, their dozens hurt. Apparently In that story, Notre 0:07:59.520 --> 0:08:03.560 Dame Cathedral in France unveiling its new interior five years 0:08:03.600 --> 0:08:07.040 after that devastating fire. Today it's a watershed in the 0:08:07.080 --> 0:08:11.000 rebirth from its devastating fire in twenty nineteen. The occasion 0:08:11.160 --> 0:08:15.360 is French President Emanuel Macron's final visit to the construction 0:08:15.520 --> 0:08:19.600 site to see the restored interiors for himself before all 0:08:19.600 --> 0:08:24.040 the proceedings today. A messy rollback of pandemic era regulations 0:08:24.080 --> 0:08:26.960 in New York City. Many of those outdoor dining sheds 0:08:27.040 --> 0:08:30.400 we've been using, they were still standing as of last 0:08:30.480 --> 0:08:33.000 night and early this morning. John Monica Jimenez is the 0:08:33.120 --> 0:08:36.760 night shift manager at Old John's luncheonet on the Upper 0:08:36.760 --> 0:08:37.760 West Side of Manhattan. 0:08:37.920 --> 0:08:41.800 But for our business, no plans to actually take this down, No, 0:08:41.920 --> 0:08:42.960 yea yeah, And. 0:08:42.880 --> 0:08:45.480 She says she's not removing them today. The deadline though, 0:08:45.640 --> 0:08:48.480 is today Global News twenty four hours a day and 0:08:48.520 --> 0:08:51.320 whenever you want it with Bloomberg News. Now, I'm Denise Pelaguini, 0:08:51.400 --> 0:08:52.760 and this is Bloomberg. 0:08:52.320 --> 0:08:58.840 All right, Thanks Denise, and that brings us to find 0:08:58.920 --> 0:09:01.240 ten of Wall Street time down for the Bloomberg Sports 0:09:01.280 --> 0:09:03.440 Update being brought to you by Tri State Audi. And 0:09:03.480 --> 0:09:06.800 for that we bring in Bloomberg's band Schwartzman. 0:09:06.920 --> 0:09:08.520 Hello Dan, Good morning John. 0:09:08.559 --> 0:09:11.360 The Lions got the NFL Thanksgiving Tripleheader off and running 0:09:11.360 --> 0:09:13.280 by winning their tenth game in a row to improved 0:09:13.280 --> 0:09:15.559 to eleven and one on the season with a twenty 0:09:15.600 --> 0:09:17.360 three to twenty win over the Bears, who. 0:09:17.200 --> 0:09:19.800 Have now dropped six games in a row. Chicago did 0:09:19.840 --> 0:09:20.560 have a chance. 0:09:20.320 --> 0:09:22.400 At least tie the game with time running out, but 0:09:22.480 --> 0:09:25.920 inexplicably let precious seconds run off the clock despite still 0:09:25.920 --> 0:09:26.760 having a time out. 0:09:27.000 --> 0:09:29.079 Bears head coach Matt ebra Flusto. 0:09:28.800 --> 0:09:31.080 Says he thought the team handled the clock properly at 0:09:31.120 --> 0:09:31.520 the end. 0:09:32.080 --> 0:09:34.360 Yeah, I like what we did there. 0:09:35.080 --> 0:09:37.640 Again, once it's under seven, you know you're gonna you're 0:09:37.679 --> 0:09:40.560 gonna call you know, time out there or actually under twelve, 0:09:41.360 --> 0:09:43.719 and then really you don't have an option, you know, 0:09:43.720 --> 0:09:45.280 because it's third to fourth, you got to throw it 0:09:45.280 --> 0:09:48.240 into the end zone then, So to me, it's uh, 0:09:48.240 --> 0:09:49.400 I think we handled it the right way. 0:09:50.040 --> 0:09:53.400 Matt's curtsyvespn dot Com Giants are now losers the seventh 0:09:53.400 --> 0:09:55.480 straight after the twenty seven to twenty loss to the 0:09:55.480 --> 0:09:58.120 Cowboys in Dallas. Drew Locke got the start for the 0:09:58.120 --> 0:10:01.320 Giants as Timy Devitos ruled out with an injury. Elsewhere, 0:10:01.400 --> 0:10:04.520 Packers dominated the Dolphins thirty to seventeen to Lambo Fields 0:10:04.520 --> 0:10:06.880 improved to nine and three on the season as Short 0:10:06.920 --> 0:10:09.520 and Love threw for two touchdowns. Both the NBA and 0:10:09.559 --> 0:10:12.000 the NHL took the day off for Thanksgiving, but at 0:10:12.040 --> 0:10:14.199 full schedules today, with the next starting things off by 0:10:14.240 --> 0:10:16.960 visiting the Charlotte Hornets at noon. Elshere, the Brooklyn Nets 0:10:17.000 --> 0:10:19.839 are hosting the Orlando Magic. The Boston Celtics are in 0:10:19.920 --> 0:10:22.480 Chicago facing the Bulls, where the Lakers are hosting the 0:10:22.480 --> 0:10:25.480 Oklahoma City thunder Rangers. They're at the Flyers to start 0:10:25.480 --> 0:10:27.560 the busy day off in the NHL, with the Islanders 0:10:27.600 --> 0:10:29.760 on the road to the Capitols, while the Bruins are 0:10:29.760 --> 0:10:33.240 home for the Pittsburgh Penguins. Other big matchups include Winnipeg 0:10:33.320 --> 0:10:36.280 visiting Vegas, Carolina, home for the Florida Panthers, when the 0:10:36.360 --> 0:10:38.160 Dallas Stars are hosting Colorado. 0:10:38.559 --> 0:10:40.160 In tennis, five time Grand. 0:10:39.960 --> 0:10:43.240 Slam winner, second seeded egsh Fiatec accepted a one month 0:10:43.320 --> 0:10:45.920 suspension for testing positive for a banned substance. 0:10:46.160 --> 0:10:47.199 The former world's. 0:10:47.000 --> 0:10:49.600 Number one failed the test back in August, but formerly 0:10:49.640 --> 0:10:53.160 admitted the violation this week while accepting her penalty. That's 0:10:53.160 --> 0:10:56.599 your Bloomberg Sports update. I'm Dan Schwartzman, Nathan and John. 0:10:58.520 --> 0:10:59.280 Coast to coast. 0:10:59.360 --> 0:11:03.400 I'm Bloomberg Radio nationwide on Sirius XM and around the 0:11:03.400 --> 0:11:06.920 world on Bloomberg dot Com and the Bloomberg Business app. 0:11:07.120 --> 0:11:09.119 This is Bloomberg Daybreak. 0:11:09.240 --> 0:11:11.520 Good morning, I'm Nathan Hager. As we head into a 0:11:11.679 --> 0:11:14.600 holiday shortened day of trading on this Black Friday, investors 0:11:14.679 --> 0:11:16.400 might want to be getting as much of a jump 0:11:16.400 --> 0:11:19.240 on the holiday deals as everybody else, but we do 0:11:19.480 --> 0:11:22.960 still have a slew of economic data to tie jest 0:11:23.040 --> 0:11:25.680 before we get into the final trading month of twenty 0:11:25.760 --> 0:11:28.480 twenty four, and as we continue to assess what has 0:11:28.480 --> 0:11:32.839 been a remarkable bull run for stocks this year. Joining 0:11:32.920 --> 0:11:37.560 US now. Bloomberg News equities reporter Joe Easton, Joe, good morning. 0:11:37.640 --> 0:11:41.960 It really has been tough to derail the bull this year, 0:11:42.040 --> 0:11:42.440 has it not? 0:11:43.760 --> 0:11:46.839 It has indeed, Nathan, and we are potentially looking to 0:11:46.880 --> 0:11:50.120 see some small gains continuing that theme in the US 0:11:50.160 --> 0:11:53.560 futures today. As you mentioned earlier, is it shortened trading there, 0:11:53.559 --> 0:11:57.080 but really the US is out shining. You're once again, 0:11:57.120 --> 0:11:59.960 I mean you're at European stocks lower on the day, 0:11:59.720 --> 0:12:02.520 but for now we are actually seeing a little bit 0:12:02.559 --> 0:12:04.720 of a sentiment change. An interesting note out from Bank 0:12:04.760 --> 0:12:08.000 of America today saying that they are upgrading European stocks 0:12:08.000 --> 0:12:10.720 while they continue to like the US equity market, they 0:12:10.800 --> 0:12:13.960 reckon the conditions in terms of credit conditions here in 0:12:14.000 --> 0:12:16.240 Europe are actually getting a bit better, so kind of 0:12:16.559 --> 0:12:19.360 changing their view in terms of potentially shifting some more 0:12:19.640 --> 0:12:23.240 capital towards at this region. But we really can't keep 0:12:23.320 --> 0:12:25.640 up with the gains that we've seen over in the US, 0:12:25.720 --> 0:12:28.200 double digit gains over there, of course, whereas in the 0:12:28.200 --> 0:12:30.559 Europe we are just seeing small gains on a year 0:12:30.600 --> 0:12:31.320 to day basis. 0:12:31.400 --> 0:12:34.240 Yeah, certainly a lot of the games that we've seen 0:12:34.280 --> 0:12:36.320 this year have been driven by the AI trade. But 0:12:36.400 --> 0:12:39.800 then all this excitement, or at least initially around the 0:12:40.160 --> 0:12:45.400 election of president like Donald Trump, where does the trajectory 0:12:45.480 --> 0:12:46.520 seem to lay here? 0:12:47.679 --> 0:12:51.280 Yeah, So I think the most recent take is on 0:12:51.679 --> 0:12:55.000 Trump's appointments to his cabinet, of course, and potentially the 0:12:55.120 --> 0:12:58.000 latest reading is that they might not be as kind 0:12:58.040 --> 0:13:00.680 of hawkish in terms of some of their policies in 0:13:00.760 --> 0:13:03.640 terms of tariffs in that kind of issue there. So 0:13:03.720 --> 0:13:05.800 I think that's what the market's going to be holding 0:13:05.840 --> 0:13:09.280 on too. But obviously with that there's an implication for 0:13:09.360 --> 0:13:12.439 the dollar and how that impacts the markets going forward. 0:13:12.480 --> 0:13:14.760 But in terms of Europe, we do need to see 0:13:14.880 --> 0:13:16.400 a bit of an easing in some of the retor 0:13:16.920 --> 0:13:19.960 rhetoric around tariffs. We did, of course see that report 0:13:20.240 --> 0:13:22.240 earlier this week that we could be getting some harsh 0:13:22.400 --> 0:13:25.520 measures from the US and that hit our market. I 0:13:25.559 --> 0:13:28.920 think the AI trade, I think it's maybe played a 0:13:28.920 --> 0:13:30.760 lot of its course out at the moment, so I'm 0:13:30.800 --> 0:13:33.360 not too upbeat on that element. I think a lot 0:13:33.400 --> 0:13:35.480 of it is going to come down to the White House, 0:13:35.480 --> 0:13:36.320 as you mentioned there. 0:13:36.800 --> 0:13:40.840 Of course, we had that data cornucopia on Wednesday. What's 0:13:40.880 --> 0:13:47.040 the takeaway there, particularly around the personal consumption of expenditures index, 0:13:47.080 --> 0:13:52.400 that might be suggesting that that last mile around disinflation 0:13:52.720 --> 0:13:54.640 indeed can be the toughest. 0:13:55.760 --> 0:13:57.960 Yeah, no, I think I would agree with that, And 0:13:58.080 --> 0:14:01.000 actually you don't want to keep flicking back to Europe, 0:14:01.040 --> 0:14:03.480 but given I am here, we have actually just literally 0:14:03.679 --> 0:14:06.480 around ten to fifteen minutes ago, got in the Euro 0:14:06.600 --> 0:14:09.839 Area inflation and it is kind of showing a similar thing. 0:14:09.880 --> 0:14:13.280 We're actually kind of struggling to come down from those levels. 0:14:13.320 --> 0:14:17.080 So inflation back above two percent in Europe potentially not 0:14:17.240 --> 0:14:20.480 enough to derail the ECB from cutting their interest rate. 0:14:20.560 --> 0:14:22.120 That seems to be the take here. So we have 0:14:22.160 --> 0:14:25.960 actually seen some bond deals coming down and also the 0:14:26.120 --> 0:14:28.360 euro actually weakening very slightly. But I think it's a 0:14:28.400 --> 0:14:30.880 similar thing. As you say, it's very hard to get 0:14:30.960 --> 0:14:33.960 past that last bit of inflation. All these things tend 0:14:34.000 --> 0:14:37.080 to come on lagging effects. We all know that this 0:14:37.120 --> 0:14:40.480 will be hurting our bottom lines, our wallets for much 0:14:40.560 --> 0:14:43.040 longer in terms of the higher rates on mortgages and 0:14:43.040 --> 0:14:44.840 that kind of thing. So I think there's a little 0:14:44.840 --> 0:14:47.120 bit left to play on that trade at the moment, 0:14:47.520 --> 0:14:48.080 and when it. 0:14:48.040 --> 0:14:52.600 Comes to the possibility of hawkish tariff talk from President 0:14:52.600 --> 0:14:56.480 elect Trump. Does that lead to kind of a budding 0:14:56.560 --> 0:14:58.960 of heads between what we could see on the policy 0:14:59.000 --> 0:15:01.240 front and what we can get from the Federal Reserve? 0:15:01.280 --> 0:15:02.120 Got about a minute lap. 0:15:03.200 --> 0:15:05.480 Yeah, No, I think that it's going to be the 0:15:05.520 --> 0:15:08.320 two forces going pretty much the opposite direction. I mean, 0:15:08.360 --> 0:15:11.080 if the FED wants to ease rates and then there 0:15:11.160 --> 0:15:14.520 is possible higher inflation coming from these tariffs, and tariffs 0:15:14.640 --> 0:15:17.280 are expected to be inflation or of course therefore lifting 0:15:17.280 --> 0:15:19.640 the dollar, then it's very difficult for then the Fed 0:15:19.680 --> 0:15:21.960 to come in and start really easing their policy further 0:15:22.040 --> 0:15:25.240 if there's going to be upside to both the dollar 0:15:25.360 --> 0:15:28.800 and inflation more broadly, So therefore it's kind of going 0:15:28.840 --> 0:15:31.400 against it. We'll have to see what Trump has to 0:15:31.400 --> 0:15:34.040 say more about the actual Fed himself. Obviously, when he 0:15:34.160 --> 0:15:37.280 was in power last time, he wasn't afraid to kind 0:15:37.320 --> 0:15:40.280 of throw about a bit of criticism on monetary policy. 0:15:40.320 --> 0:15:42.400 So we'll see what happens there. But as you say, 0:15:42.440 --> 0:15:45.880 it's kind of two really powerful forces pushing in the 0:15:45.880 --> 0:15:48.760 opposite direction. So it's going to be an interesting start 0:15:48.760 --> 0:15:50.360 to the year next year when we get there. 0:15:50.560 --> 0:15:53.440 This is Bloomberg deeb Break, your morning podcast on the 0:15:53.440 --> 0:15:56.720 stories making news from Wall Street to Washington and beyond. 0:15:57.040 --> 0:15:59.440 Look for us on your podcast feed by six am 0:15:59.440 --> 0:16:02.840 Eastern each morning, on Apple, Spotify, or anywhere else you listen. 0:16:02.960 --> 0:16:05.400 You can also listen live each morning starting at five 0:16:05.480 --> 0:16:08.320 am Wall Street Time. 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