538: Bold Predictions

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Speaker 1: This is the Late Podcast with your host JJ Zacher Retha Jay Shake Zacher reson What's up everyone. It's JJ Zacharyese and the editor in chief at fandel and at Number five dot com in this episode five hundred and thirty eight of the Late Round podcast. So many shows that are part of the FanDuel podcast network. Thanks for tuning in. We're only a week away from the regular season podcast schedule, which scares a living crap out of me because that means a lot of work for me. But I'm excited about it. We're gonna have a great year. I can feel it. Before we get serious about the season and before I start doing four episodes a week starting next week, let's get a little weird. Let's talk about bold predictions for the twenty twenty one fantasy football season. Now. I write a bold predictions piece on Number fire dot com every year, and to be honest, the hit rate on these pieces it's sometimes better than a standard article I'll do on players to target. I try not to be bold just for the sake of being bold. I'm not throwing it a wall at random. I try to put serious thought into these predictions. I try to think of a player's honest range of outcomes, and if one of those outcomes on one side of the spectrum hits, it's not hard to see a bold prediction around that player come true. So today I'm going to talk through ten of the fifteen bold predictions that I wrote up in my article on Number Fire, and then I'm going to add two more that you can only get on this podcast, the Late Round Podcast. Now, before I get into those predictions, I want to remind you that Fandel is offering an exclusive promotion for new sportsbook users. Join Fandel Sportsbook today and make your first bet. If you lose, Fandel will give you a refund of up to one thousand dollars in sit credit within seventy two hours. Your first bet after depositing will qualify. If you have multiple selections on one bet slip, it will be the first selection that you made. Head over to the Fandel Sportsbook today and place your first bet. Must be twenty one years or older in president of Colorado, Iowa, Illinois, Indiana, Michigan, New Jersey, Pennsylvania, Tennessee, Virginia, West Virginia. New users only, max bonus one thousand dollars in site credit terms at sportsbook dot fanel dot com. Gambling problem called one hundred five to two two forty seven hundred in Colorado, one one hundred bets off in Iowa, one hundred nine with in Indiana one hundred two seven zero seven one one seven for confidential help in Michigan, one one hundred gambler in New Jersey, Pennsylvania, Illinois, and Virginia, tennessee redline one hundred and eight nine nine seven eight nine, or visit one hundred gambler dot net. In West Virginia, Trey Lance will finish top five in quarterback points per game. This is obviously a bold prediction because Trey Lance right now, despite getting hype, he's still usually being drafted outside the top ten at the quarterback position, especially in your home leagues. In your home leagues, he's usually like a mid range QB two. But here's why this can happen. It's very obvious that in today's game of fantasy football, you need that mobility at the quarterback position for a true ceiling. There's two ways that quarterbacks are giving you a very very good season in fantasy football. One way is through an outlier season and touchdown rate like we saw with Aaron Rodgers last year. The other way is through rushing, and Lance definitely can bring the rushing. He rushed for eleven hundred yards in his only season as starter in college. He found the end zone fourteen times. He can bring that element to the NFL, even if he hasn't shown that so far in the preseason. On top of that, the forty nine Ers have the easiest schedule in football when looking at team win totals in terms of schedule strength using Fandel's sportsbook numbers. San Francisco has a coaching staff that's ranked in the top half of the league in each of the last four years in yards per play. Despite inconsistent quarterback availability. The forty nine Ers also have a very very good group of pass catchers. You have Brandon iu Can, Deebo Samuel at wide receiver, and you have one of the best tight ends in football in George Kittle. The circumstances around Trey Lance are great once he starts, and maybe that won't be Week one, but once he starts, I'm expecting big things. Tom Brady will finish outside the top twelve at the quarterback position. This one's bold because people really like Tom Brady. He's being selected as a top ten quarterback. But here's the thing. I don't actually think this is that bold of a take. Here's why this can happen over the last two seasons. I already talked about the mobility stuff, But over the last two seasons, we've seen top twelve quarterbacks score eighteen point nine percent and eighteen point two percent of their fantasy points via the ground. That's significantly higher than any two seasons over the last decade. And as we know, Tom Brady's a dad runner. So for him to have a difference making season in fantasy football, he needs an outlier touchdown rate. Can that happen? Yeah, of course, look at his wide receivers. Of course that can happen. I'm not selling it otherwise, but I'm looking at his range of outcomes here. Last season, tom Brady threw forty touchdowns. He had the third highest touchdown rate of his career, and he still finishes the QB eleven in points per game, the QB ten if you don't want to include Dak Prescott. So again, this one's not all that bold. If you heard this one and you thought it was bold, I would probably reevaluate the way that you're viewing Tom Brady and fantasy football, Trey Sermon will outscore both Miles Gaskin and Mike Davis. So since I wrote my bold predictions article, this one's becoming less and less bold, but it's still bold because Miles Gaskin and Mike Davis are generally being drafted ahead of Trey Sermon. The easiest way to frame this argument, though, is to look at the downside of Gaskin and Davis. With Gaskin he could be a committee back. Malcolm Brown is already seeing some work in the preseason, although Gaskin looks better, and we've heard the Dolphins talk about having a committee with Mike Davis. I talked about this and the Players to Avoid podcast. He's a twenty eight year old journeyman running back who's never been a true belcal in the NFL. He's one hundred percent being boosted in an average draft position because of lack of competition in the Falcons backfield. And that's fine. I understand that, but there's a lot of fragility to that situation because you're not just drafting Mike Davis the player. You're drafting Mike Davis more so for his situation. Meanwhile, I Tray Sermon fits the ambiguous RB one theory really well. I won't get into the ambiguous RB one theory. You guys have heard me talk about it over the last couple of months, but he fits that mold. He's a middle round running back with a teammate being drafted with him in the middle rounds, and he's the RB one by ADP on that team. Those guys have better hit rates in the RB twos a lot better. And as I just talked about, the forty nine ers have a very easy schedule this year. That means more positive game scripts, which could mean more love for Trey Sermon. The best fantasy football quarterback with the first name Justin this season will be Justin Fields. Now, this one's obviously very bold because of Justin Herbert, Justin Herbert's being drafted significantly ahead of Justin Fields. People on Twitter were not happy to hear this particular bold prediction, But hear me out here. I do have Justin Herbert ranked ahead of Justin Fields. Let me first get that out of the way, But there is some reason that on a points per game, Justin Fields can outscore Justin Herbert. I've been talking about the importance of rushing already throughout this podcast, and Justin fields can bring that. We've seen that in the preseason. He ran a four four four point forty at his Pro Day. We know that he can get it done on the ground and that baseline can truly catapult him into QB one territory. Since twenty eleven, we've had twenty seven quarterbacks rushed for five hundred and more yards. Twenty of those quarterbacks have finished as QB ones in Fantasy football, and again, Justin Herbert should be ranked as a top ten quarterback entering the year. I'm not arguing that, but keep in mind that things weren't totally perfect during his rookie season. He scored fewer than seventeen fantasy points in four of his final six games. During that stretch, his touchdown rate fell by about two and a half percent versus the front half of the season. I think there's a wider range of outcomes for Justin Herbert than most are expecting, because I do think that in his arsenal is sort of a Josh Allen mobility like season where he might be able to find the end zone a good bit, and he might be able to rush the ball more than we expect. I just don't think he's as aggressive as Josh Allen is on the ground, so we might not see that. And if we don't see that, then Justin Herbert is just a pocket passer for the most part. And again, in order for those pocket passers to be true difference makers, they need outlier seasons and touchdown rate. If Justin Herbert gets a little bit unlucky from that perspective, Justin Fields could realistically outscore him. Naji Harris will finish as a top eight running back. This one's bold because Harris is often being drafted outside the top twelve at his position. But the name of the game is volume. Naji Harris is going to be the bell cow in the Steelers offense. He came in with a ninety six percentile rating in my prospect model. He is the best grade of any running back that's come out over the last two years. Now. A lot of that has to do with good draft capital, but that strong draft capital can give us comfort that the Steelers are gonna use him a lot. They're in win now mode. With Ben Roethlisberger being sixty five years old. This isn't a situation like Mike Davis where there's a chance that another running back could just take over some work in that backfield. This is Naji Harris's backfield. In twenty eighteen, James Connor in thirteen games, he saw over seventy percent of Pittsburgh's running back rushes and a target shair above ten percent. Let's just assume that Naji Harris hits those marks. He would join the list of thirty nine running backs over the last ten years to hit those marks. Of those backs, only two of them finished outside the top ten in the position in season long scoring. Now, obviously a player seeing that much work he was probably healthy. But even on a points per game basis, those running backs were still really good. Thirty three of the thirty nine scored seventeen or more PPR points per game. Why is that seventeen number important because it was the RB eight last season. That's why Naji Harris can be a top eight running back here in twenty twenty one, Javante Williams will be a top ten running back during the second half of the season. This one's bold because Williams is usually drafted outside the top twenty four at the running back position. But this can happen. I do think we're going to see a committee to start the year in Denver, where Melvin Gordon and Javonte Williams are splitting a lot of work. But there's a chance as the season goes on that William's talent is just undeniable. He was a ninety second percentile prospect in my model. He was a top six running back across the last two draft classes, and Pro Football Focuses data gave him the top broken tackles per attempt rate that they had ever seen. Javonte Williams is really good, and he's a really good pass protector too, which could throw him on the field early and often. And we've seen rookie running backs just do really well during the second half of seasons in recent history. Jonathan Taylor is a very easy example of this from last year. We also had Antonio Gibson, JK Dobbins, DeAndre Swift from last season, Miles Sanders from a couple of years ago. We've seen this happen plenty. Why not with Javonte Williams. Antonio Brown will outscore Brandon Ayuk. This one's bold because Ayuk is going significantly higher in drafts than Antonio Brown is, And make no mistake, Brandon Ayuk has a very real shot to have a big year. I have Ayuk ranked ahead of Antonio Brown. This is less about the ceiling for Ayuk and more about the floor. I think he's gonna be productive enough that he's not gonna like sink your team. He's a really good wide receiver. I talked about that on last week's Mailbag episode. But there are red flags surrounding a situation. Like I said, the forty nine ers entering the season, they have the easiest schedule in the league. That could be more positive game scripts and less passing. Over the last three years, San Francisco's ranked twenty second, twenty ninth, and twenty first and neutral script pass rate. You think they're gonna be a very pass heavy team. Probably not. And as I've talked about on this show back in June, rookie quarterbacks generally aren't good for pass catchers, and neither are mobile quarterbacks. That's exactly what Trey Lance is. There might be enough volume to support Brandon Ayuk being a top twenty wide receiver. I'm not rolling that out at all, I'm just looking at his range of outcomes here and on the lower end it's not that great. And I'm not pretending that Antonio Brown is a lock to finish as a top twenty wide receiver either, but it's not crazy to think that he could. Without any reps with the Buccaneers. Last season, Brown stepped in and he averaged a twenty percent target chair per game. If you want to remove his outlier performance in Week seventeen, that was still seventeen point six percent. He was also targeted on eighteen point nine percent of his snaps played. That was the fifth highest among all offensive skill players across the NFL. When Antonio Brown was on the field, Tom Brady was throwing him the ball. That's what that says. Is it that hard to imagine that one of the best wide receivers of all time, who's now getting normal work during an offseason, that he has a strong fantasy season. The Bucks are in a pass friendly offense, Antonio Brown could have a very good fantasy season. Davante Smith will lead rookie wide receivers in fantasy points scored. This one's bold because Deavonte Smith, despite all the stuff going on with Jamar Chase. He's still being drafted well after Jamar Chase. And look, Jamar Chase is one of the best prospects that my model has ever seen. He's a ninety ninth percentile prospect. But Davante Smith is a ninety eighth percentile prospect. He's not that far behind. I think that you could say that the situation for Jamar Chase is more attractive than the one for DeVante Smith here in year one, because the quarterback position looks more locked in in Cincinnati than it does in Philadelphia, and Cincinnati is a more pass heavy team. Despite the competition in Cincinnati, they're gonna throw a lot. And the whole thing about mobile quarterbacks not being good for fantasy for their pass catchers, that's very true. And Jalen Hurts is a mobile quarterback, so that will hurt DeVante Smith. But here's the thing. Davante Smith could capture a pretty big target share in that Philadelphia offense this year, and the fact that he's the first Philadelphia pass catcher to be selected in drafts that matters too. Historically, middle round wide receivers who are the first wide outs drafted from their teams by average rapt position, they tend to outperform expectation at a higher rate compared to the alternative. And when those receivers don't have a teammate being drafted with them in the middle rounds, that hit rate increases even more. Episode five and twenty six of the Late Round podcast talks about this, and that's DeVante Smith. He doesn't have teammates being drafted around him, and he's a middle round wide receiver, and like I said, he's an elite prospect, so no one should be shocked at all at Davonte Smith is the best rookie wide receiver this year in Fantasy football. Tyler Higbee and Dallas Goddard will finish outside the top twelve a tight end. This one's bold because both of those tight ends are being drafted well inside the top twelve. But I think this could happen. I already talked about Dallas Goddard on the Players to Avoid episode, and the reason I talked about him on that sho because the Eagles still have zach Ertz. Goddard. Splits with a healthy zach Ertz are not very good. But then on top of all that, look at what we've seen historically from an ADP perspective, from middle round tight ends. Usually the tight ends who break out in the middle rounds, they're the first pass catchers being drafted from their team, similar to the wide receiver position. Over the last ten years, we've had fifty five tight ends get selected in round six through nine who weren't the top pass catcher from their teams by ADP. So like Dallas Goddard this year, Devonte Smith is being drafted ahead of them, Tyler Higby this year, you have Cooper Cup and Robert Woods being drafted ahead of them. If you look at ADP expectation and how those tight ends perform, it's not great. Only three of them have been true breakouts. I'm not sitting here saying that Higby and Goddard aren't capable of scoring fantasy points like they'll probably be fine enough. We have a long history of these types of tight ends, these middle round tight ends not doing very well in fantasy football. Michael Pittman will outscore DJ Shark. This one's bold because Pittman goes a lot later than DJ Shark in drafts. But Chark is someone that I'm not very into this year. I talked about that in the players to avoid episode. He's playing with a rookie quarterback. He's had overrated production throughout his NFL career, and is he even the best wide receiver on the Jags. I don't know that for sure, and Pittman has flown under the radar because of this Carson Wentz injury. But Carson Wentz looks like he's going to be healthy, and Pittman fits a lot of the criteria when looking for a breakout wide receiver. He's the first pass catcher being selected on the Colts by ADP. That's a plus. He's a second year wide receiver, they tend to break out at a much more significant rate. He's part of an ambiguous wide receiver group, and his target share wasn't totally non existent last year. You can listen to more about breakout wide receivers on an episode that I did last month. Pittman has a real shot to be an alpha on his team. Now, obviously DJ Hark does too, but I'm talking bold here. What if Michael Pittman is and DJ Shark isn't. It's not that hard to see that happening, which is why I think Pittman can outscore Djhark very easily. Now, like I said at the top, I've got two bold predictions that weren't in my article that I'm going to share on today's show. The first is that Jerry Judy will be a top fifteen wide receiver this year in PPR formats. This is sort of just an extension of my players to target episode from a couple of weeks ago. But Jerry Judy really is fitting a lot of the criteria that I lay it out in that July episode on spotting breakout wide receivers. I'm going to reiterate something that that I just talked about with Michael Pittman. But breakout wide receivers they typically come from ambiguous situations. There's no clear cut wide receiver in that Broncos offense. And on top of that, wide receivers have a higher hit rate when then the first wide out drafted from their team Jerry Judy has separated himself from Courtland Sutton. Breakout wide receivers typically don't come from nowhere. Jerry Judy is not coming from nowhere. He had a twenty one one point two percent target shair last year. Breakout wide receivers don't need to have a stud quarterback and Jerry Judy does not have that by ADP, even by not ADP, and then breakout wide receivers hit at a more substantial rate when their second year wide receivers. That's what Jerry Judy is. I love me some Jerry Judy this year. I've pigged him as this year as Deontay Johnson, and I think it makes a lot of sense. Now. The last bold prediction today is that Terris Marshall will lead the Panthers in receiving touchdowns. This one's spicy. This is a spicy take. The reason it's bold is because Marshall's probably gonna be at best the fourth option in target share in this Panthers offense. You've got Christian McCaffrey, DJ Moore and Robbie Anderson, and you should absolutely take those players ahead of Tarras Marshall. But you guys know, I love me some Terris Marshall. He played a large percentage of his snaps from the slot during his final year at LSU, and it's natural for him to play a lot of his snaps from there this year. With DJ Moore and Robbie Anderson on the perimeter, it's a way to let Marshall find the field right away, and he's a beast. Robbie Anderson struggled to score last year and DJ Moore has struggled to score his entire career. He has ten career touchdowns in three seasons. Despite a lot of targets in overall production, Moore only had eight red zone targets last year. Fifty nine wide receivers had more. Now, I like DJ Moore a lot this year. Don't take this the wrong way. I think Moore has an incredible ceiling because imagine a world where he gets utilized more there. I'm just saying that it's possible that similar usage to twenty twenty could result in an opportunity for Terris Marshall, who's got the best height weight combo among the trio of wide receivers. He's the best red zone threat that they have, and that red zone work. If he does play the slot a good bit, it could be against more advantageous matchups. So that's the last prediction, Terris Marshall leading the Carolina Panthers in receiving touchdowns. That's going to do for today's show. So thanks to all of you for listening. If you've get subscribed to the Late Round podcast, make sure you are by searching for it pretty much anywhere podcasts can be found. You no't forget to follow me on Twitter at Late Round QB. Thanks for listening everyone, I'll talk to you later in the week.