832: Week 10 Sleepers

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Speaker 1: This is the lad Podcast with your host j J. Zacher rethas j J zacher Reason. What's up everyone, It's JJ Zacharyeson in this episode eight hundred and thirty two of the Late Round Fantasy Football podcast sponsored by FanDuel. Thanks for tuning in. Last week's Sleeper Show was very hit or miss like players either did really well or they just couldn't get going at all. Devin Singletary couldn't come through despite a really good snapshare and usage, Elijah Moore, Jayden Reed, Justice Hillo, Jonathan Mingo. They were not very good plays, but there were a few very nice hits. Tank Dell was featured and he went completely nuts. Luke Musgrave finally found the end zone. The defensive streamers were strong, and Cad freaking oughten Man cad Oughton had a multi touchdown day. Bye weeks can make this show difficult because there are fewer players to choose from. So I was happy with some of the big performances from last week's show, but I'm hoping for more hits this week than last week because there were a high number of misses too. Unfortunately, with us all experiencing these tough bye weeks, things aren't gonna get any easier here. In Week ten, we'll kick things off and look at players roster and in ten to fifty percent of Yahoo leagues who you might want to consider this week, and we're gonna start with Josh Dobbs. The matchup for Dobbs this week is below average on paper. The Saints rank is the twenty second best matchup for quarterbacks and adjusted fantasy points allowed. But we've seen Dobbs do just fine in tough matchups this year, including a QB one performance against Baltimore, so it's not necessarily the end of the world. Dobbs is averaging thirty six rushing yards per game this season. He scored a rushing touchdown in four separate contests. Basically, when you look at his rushing production, he's giving you an extra passing touchdown worth of fantasy points in every single game based on that ground game work. So the rushing and just the way that he played last week, he's an OK streaming choice as a result. There's also Will Levis. Tampa Bay's secondary has been really really bad of late. In Week six, Jared Gott finishes the QB three against them Desmond Ridder the next week was the QB eighteen, but it's also Desmond Ridder and he threw for two hundred and fifty yards, which was above average for him. Then the last two weeks, we've watched Josh Allen and CJ. Stroud tear them apart. They ranked as a QB two in the QB one in fantasy. The Bucks have allowed almost three hundred and fifty passing yards per game over the last month. They now rank in the bottom five and passing EPA per drop back allowed, and teams have thrown it against Tampa Bay at the seventh highest rate in the league. So that leads me to Will Levis. He's been serviceable across his first two games as starter. The matchup is definitely there for him this week. And then finally, the guy that I talked about in the fifty Transactions episode, Taylor Heineke Heinike gets Arizona. The Cardinals are a top five opponent for quarterbacks and adjustin Fantasy points allowed. Atlanta cordin to FANDLS Sportsbook currently has the ninth highest implied team total on this week slate. Heinick's also been pushing the ball down the field more at least compared to Desmond, Ritter and Arizona ranks last and completion rate allowed on fifteen plus air yard throws this year. I'd rather go with Will Levis or Josh Dobbs, but don't sleep on Taylor Heineke at running back this week, Let's kick things off with Antonio Gibson. He's seen target shairs of ten percent and eleven point four percent over his last two games, and he's played a little more snaps compared to the two prior to that. He's also coming off his highest running back rush share since Week four, where he saw a quarter of Washington's running back rushes. Seattle's been a top ten matchup for running backs this season and adjustin fantasy points allowed. And there's a chance that Washington trails in this game that would lead to more pass catching work out of the backfield for Antonio Gibson. I don't love him, but it's a tough week with buys. So he works in that same game as Zach Charboney and he's still rostering in just forty four percent of Yahoo leagues. Sharbonne has seen snap shares of fifty nine percent and fifty five percent over his last two games. Essentially doubling his snap rate from earlier this season. That's led to running back rush shares of thirty nine percent and thirty one percent, and he's had route participation rates above the fifty percent mark. Those are not elite numbers, but they're flexworthy numbers. Washington has a beatable defense, and like I said with Antonio Gibson, Seattle could lead in that game. That may make them want to use Sharbonay a little bit more to close things out to save Kenneth Walker. So I think Sharbonnay makes plenty of sense. Now. I know Devin Singletary burned a lot of us last week. I use him in spots as well, but at the very least the peripherals were there. That was without Damian Pierce. He handled ninety three percent of Houston's running back rushes and he ran a route on fifty six percent of their dropbacks. That was all while playing seventy five percent of their offensive snaps. He was a belcow. I don't know if Pierce is gonna go this weekend. At the time of this recording. All I know is that he did not practice on Wednesday. Even if he does go, he's probably not going to be one hundred percent, and Singletary served as the pass catcher in that backfield this season, and the Texans there's six and a half point underdogs against the Bengals this weekend, so there could be a nice pass catching script for Devin Singletary. I wouldn't give up on him just yet. At wide receiver, let's go back to a reliable one, in to Mario Douglas. Douglas is coming off a game with a sixteen percent target share, which isn't horrible, but it's not great when you're playing for New England. He did, however, see another strong week of snaps and route participation. He played his highest snapper of the season at eighty three percent, and according to fantasylife dot Com, Douglas did see his average depth of target rise from week eight to week nine. It was still low, but it wasn't two point three yards low. Based on potential volume alone. Douglas is okay enough this week. Each week he's more of a floor play with Josh Palmer. On IR. We saw Quinton Johnston run around on ninety four percent of LA's dropbacks on Monday night. That was by far a season high. Now it only resulted in an eleven percent target chair, but he was on the field more and that's very, very important. This week, he'll be part of a potential high scoring game against the Lions. Detroit has also been an above average matchup for wide receivers and adjusted Fantasy points allowed. That's the exact opposite of what QJ saw last week against the Jets. The Jets rank is the toughest matchup. It would take a lot to play him. I totally get that, but Johnson is definitely a sleeper in that same game as Josh Reynolds. Now, the Lions traded for Donovan Peoples Jones, and maybe he impacts Reynolds right away here in Week ten. I'm still expecting Reynolds to play a decent number of snaps, though, because DPJ hasn't played a game for the Lions yet. The last time we saw Detroit, Reynolds didn't do that much, and really he hasn't done that much over the last month. But he saw an eight rout participation rate and he played eighty three percent of their snaps against the Chargers, a team that ranks as a top ten opponent for wideouts and adjusted Pantasy points allowed. I do think Josh Reynolds makes sense. I'm also going to go back to Jayden Reid this week, and it's not because his usage was amazing in Week nine. It actually wasn't at all. In Week nine, Red only played thirty nine percent of Green Bay's offensive snaps. The week before that number was seventy eight percent. Now, part of that was game script related, but the Packers also used on Tavian Wicks a little bit more in that game, so that brings a little bit more volatility to this play. But Reed has now played the majority of his snaps this year from the slot, and no team in football has allowed a higher yards per route run rate out of the slot than the Pittsburgh Steelers. It's not even close. They've been brutal against that area of the field, as they are each season. So I think Reed does have a chance to be relevant this week. And then the last wide receiver in this tier is Noah Brown. Last week probably won't happen again for Brown this season, he scored twenty seven PPR points, but over his last three games he's seen target shares of twenty one percent, twenty one percent, and sixteen percent. Robert Woods didn't practice on Wednesday, so if he's out again, Brown should be able to maintain the higher snap share and be part of this passing attack. And it's a passing attack that has a decent matchup against the Bengals this week. Now at tight end, with so many issues at wide receiver for New England, they ended up running a lot of twelve personnel in Week nine. Their leaders and routes run were both Hunter Henry and Mike Asiki. Hunter Henry was the one who got it done in fantasy football. He scored thirteen point nine PPR points. He had a sixteen point three percent target share. His route participation was an impressive eighty four percent. That was his highest rate since Week two. They get the Colts this week and India is the eleventh best matchup for tight ends this season and adjusted fantasy points allowed. Another potential tight end streamer this week is Gerald Everett. His participation could definitely be better. He ran around on fifty four percent of LA's dropbacks last week. But he gets a matchup against Detroit and then the seventh most advantageous matchup for tight ends this season and adjusted fantasy points allowed, and you're getting exposure to a potentially high scoring game two. And then lastly there's John new Smith. He's still available in about sixty five percent of Yahoo leagues. He gets Arizona and Arizona hasn't been the best matchup in the world on paper, but John, who has seen almost a sixteen percent target shair per game rate since Week two, which is pretty strong at tight end on potential volume alone, he works. Now, with this next tier of players, we're gonna be looking at guys who are rostered in fewer than ten percent of Yahoo leagues. We're digging deep. I want to start with a running back play, and that's Rico Dowdell. The Cowboys should destroy the Giants this week. Let's be honest. On paper, they should be able to get out to a huge lead. Anything is always possible, but they're sixteen and a half point favorites for a reason. That big lead could get us more Rico Dowdell, and maybe he can get some garbage time production. That's the entire thesis behind this play, because you're not gonna find usable running backs who are rostered in less than ten percent of leagues this time of year. So Dowdle's that guy for me. This week. Now moving on to wide receiver. In Week nine, we saw Kyle Phillips have his best game of the season with ten point eight PPR points and he had a fourteen percent target share. A reason for that was because, like I said earlier, the Steelers are not good against the slot. After Treylon Burks had that scary situation last week, I'm not convinced that he's gonna end up playing in Week ten. And if he doesn't, yeah, Phillips might be the one who benefits, But the person who would benefit more is Nick Westbrook Akeene. In two of three games without Burks this season, Westbrook a Keene hit a twenty percent target chair. Now he gets a favorable matchup against that af wour mentioned Buccaneers secondary that's been very, very beatable of late, so I think that he makes sense. And then in that same game as Trey Palmer, Tennessee has seen the fifth highest target chair to the slot this season. Palmer has run about fifty eight percent of his routes from that area of the field. Over the last two weeks, He's seen rale participation rates around that eighty five percent range, and he's hit a fifteen point four percent and thirteen point three percent target share during that two game stretch. That's ten targets over his last two games. He's definitely a deeper league play, but I do think that there's some logic in using Trey Palmer. And then the tight end in this tier is Juwan Johnson. He ended up getting a little bit more run this past week compared to his return in Week eight. He saw a rise in ral participation of about twenty one percentage points. He ended up with a fifteen point six percent target share as a result. Now, Minnesota, they're just an average matchup against tight ends, but he's getting more usage and the tight end landscape is just generally rough. So I don't mind Juwan Johnson on defense this week. The Seattle defense recommendation from the fifteen transaction show they're now rostered in way too many. So you could look at Tampa Bay against Tennessee. I know I just said a lot of bad things about that Tampa Bay secondary, but Will Levis has taken six sacks in his two starts, and the Titans have allowed a bottom ten pressure rate and bottom six sack rate. Here in twenty twenty three, there's also Vegas if they're available because they get the Jets, and you could also look at Green Bay against Pittsburgh. I'll be honest, though, this is probably the toughest week of the season for streaming defenses. That's it for today's show, though thanks to all of you for listening. If you get subscribed to the Late Round Fantasy Football podcast, make sure you are by starting for it pretty much anywhere podcast can be found, and follow me on Twitter at Late Round QB. Thanks for listening to everyone. I got the Mailbag episode in an episode of Late Round Perspectives dropping tomorrow. I'll talk to you then