635: Utilizing Front Office Decision-Making

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Speaker 1: This is the Labor Podcast with your host JJ zachersa j J zacher reson. What's up everyone. It's JJ zachar Esen in this episode six hundred and thirty five of the Late Round Fantasy Football Podcast sponsored by FanDuel. Thanks for tuning in. Over the last handful of days. I've barely gotten any sleep, and I've angered six different fan bases on the Internet. But I wouldn't want it any other way. The NFL Draft is over. It's done. The updates to the Late Round Prospect Guide were sent out on Saturday night, so anyone who bought that guide now has updated profiles and rankings, and if you want those updated profiles and rankings, you can still purchase the guide for fourteen ninety nine over on lateround dot com. Each year, my response to the draft is not to do some episode where I go over my updated rankings. I'll save that for next week. Again. You can get that in the Prospect Guide if you want it, and I'll have rankings this week on the Late Fantasy Football Patreon as well. Rather than just go through those rankings, though, I like to try to look at things from a different perspective. We can learn a lot about what a team is thinking through the NFL Draft. We have free agency, but teams aren't forced to make open decisions in free agency. With the draft, they're forced to do something in front of all of us, and that can offer up some interesting insights. So today I'm going to dig into some of the interesting things that teams seem to show us during this year's draft. I won't get into every relevant player for fantasy football again. If you want that info, my prospect guide is ready to be consumed. We've got all summer to talk about the players. I want to look into what teams may have been thinking when they took those players first. Now, before getting into things, I want to let you know there's no better time than today to sign up for Fandul Fantasy. For users who have you have to make a deposit on Fandle Fantasy. You can deposit today to receive two free entries. All I have to do is depositive minimum of ten dollars into your FanDuel DFS account. You'll be instantly rewarded with two free vouchers. This is a limited time offer, so be sure to deposit now and play for free. Head over to Fandle dot com or download the FANDLE Fantasy app today. Eligibility restrictions apply. Go to fandle dot com or download the fandle app for more details. Just because a team drafted a wide receiver in the first round or high in the first round does not automatically mean they don't like the existing wide receivers on that team. Yes, I'm talking about Elijah Moore and Garrett Wilson and DeVante Smith and AJ Brown who was essentially like a draft pick for them, and aman Ross Saint Brown and Jamison Williams. Wide receivers are valuable. We're seeing that this offseason with the kind of money that they're getting and the way that teams are lining up to trade for studs. It was not a surprise to see six wide receivers go in the first eighteen picks of the draft. It does create a really interesting situation in fantasy football, though. Should you be concerned about the existing wide receivers on those teams from a fantasy perspective, are Elijah Moore and DeVante Smith and aman Ross Saint Brown now sells in dynasty if their market values don't change, Yes, they would be sells. Because this doesn't really help them per se, but my guess is that the market is going to overestimate what this does to those players and their long term potential. DeVante Smith was a stud prospect, and even though his rookie season was overshadowed by Jalen Waddles and Jamar Chases, He's still had a really good year. He's also in the right percentile group in a year two model to have a good year two and year three outlook. We just have to hope that the Eagles move towards a more pass heavy scheme, which is entirely possible with the addition of aj Brown, at least more pass heavy than they were down the stretch last year. Elijah Moore is in a similar percentile bucket as DeVante Smith in my year two model, which, for those of you who don't know, the year two model looks at a player's prospect score to go along with how well he did as a rookie to help project how he's going to do in years two and three. Garrett Wilson was a better prospect in my model than Elijah Moore, but not by much. There's still a stud. The Jets are just clearly trying to surround Zack Wilson with as many playmakers as possible so that there aren't any excuses. As I wrote in my Prospect Guy, this likely hurts the ceiling for both Garrett Wilson and Elijah Moore if Zach Wilson does not take a step forward. There's nothing wrong with some wide receiver twos in fantasy football, though, which is still possible over the next couple of years for both of those players, because good players command high target chairs. But in order to be one of those duos that are both wide receiver ones in fantasy, you generally need a good offense to elevate them, or at least an above average one. And that's the question mark. But that's the question mark for everyone. There's still a non zero chance here that Elijah Moore is just better than Garrett Wilson. Now I think that we should favor Wilson, but this is the probability game that you've got to play when seeing if you should buy the dip and the amed Ross Saint Brown stuff is absolutely exhausting. For the thousandth time, we know that he's it's not going to produce like he did down the stretch last year. We know that TJ. Hawkinson and DeAndre Swift were hurt. If that was the actual thought. If people actually thought that aman Ross Saint Brown was going to continue what he did down the stretch last year, then he would have a much higher startup ADP. Let's look at this from a football perspective. Jamison Williams is the absolute perfect compliment to aman Ross Saint Brown. It makes total sense as appairing. Williams is the best down the field wide receiver in this class. Saint Brown is great in the slot and he can do a lot of great things close to the line of scrimmage. Episode six point twenty two really outlines my feelings on Saint Brown. I introed with a discussion not necessarily about whether he was a buyer as sell, but the fact that he's really got to screw up in his second year for him to dramatically lose market value. So if he loses significant value because of this pick, which on that episode I talked about the Lions drafting a wide receiver, but if he loses significant value because of Jamison Williams being there, I may end up being a buyer of same. He's a really good football player and the list of players who did what he did as rookies is really really good. But I'd listened to episode six hundred and twenty two for a breakdown. So to reiterate, just because a team drafts a wide receiver high does not mean that team hates the wide receivers already on their team. Having depth of the position is a good thing. And each of the three wide receivers who got hurt from these moves in Fantasy Devonte Smith, Elijah Moore, amanass Saint Brown, each of them had enough room on their roster for a top wide receiver to join them and compliment them. Honestly, none of this should be surprising. I've been talking about this for the last month and a half on this show that instead of buying DeVante Smith and Elijah Moore and amanass Saint Brown pre draft, you should wait until after the draft because this was bound to happen and they were bound to lose value in the market. They definitely took a hit, but the hit that they took is likely to look too extreme in the market. Likely we'll see where things end up. Two other wide receivers I want to touch on from the first round are Chris a Lave and Johan Dotson, and it's only because early rookie draft average draft position data is showing that a Lave is not part of that top tier of wide receivers and Johan Dotson is getting selected after George Pickens. From a process standpoint, I don't totally agree. I honestly think that this might be a reflection of all the early declare talk from fantasy analysts like myself. Yes, early declared status it matters. Yes, first round early declares have not fared well over the last decade, but it's not absolutely everything we need context. Chris a Lave had an incredible production profile with a great breakout age while playing alongside potential stud NFL wide receivers. His extra season in college did absolutely nothing in my prospect model to help him, and even still, he graded out as the second best wide receiver in this class in my model, behind only Drake London. Johan Dotson ranked as the wide receiver six, but he was significantly ahead of the second round wide receivers, including my guy Sky Moore. I can understand going more over dots and in rookie drafts because the landing spot is so enticing for more and I love sky Moore, but from strictly a process standpoint, it seems people are under selling dots in the player. He's not in early declare, but he ranked in the top ten and two of the three production metrics that my model looks at. He has arguably the best hands in this class, and while he's sort of a slot arc type, my top comp for him all off season has been t Y Hilton. I don't think you should ignore draft capital, even if you think Dotson was overdrafted in this draft. Since twenty eleven, forty nine percent of first round wide receivers have given you a season with twelve or more PPR points per game during their first three years in the league. That numbers thirty five percent. When you look at second round wideouts looking at a sixteen point per game threshold, the numbers are twenty one percent versus fifteen percent. So there's inherently a better floor baked in for a first round wide receiver. I'm not saying saying you should solely draft off of that. Clearly there's more to it. I have Sky Moore and Johan Dotson in the same tier, after all, I think that you can get sky more after the big five wide receivers are off the board. I'm not blindly following draft capital here. I'm just saying that how these teams spend their capital. While sometimes there are head scratchers, we can still leverage the information. I'm just surprised that it's not some one off thing where Dotson is going behind a player like George Pickens. It's the actual average. It's how the average draft is going. And I'm saying that as someone who liked Pickens a lot pre draft. I'm also not saying that Pickens is incapable of beating out Dotson, not at all. Dotson might completely flop. This is a podcast, though, about process, and I think process wise, it makes sense to go dots and over Pickens and don't fade non early declares just for the sake of fading non early declares. That's all embedded in my model, and my model specifically loves it some Chris lave, let's talk about the round two running backs. We had Breece Hall and Kenneth Walker both going round two. That was predictable, and while some will question the landing spots, I think they were also expected because there weren't many spots for these guys to go to where they would just walk in to this really really good offense and just dominate. Hall lands in New York and the Jets are revamping things on offense. Funny enough, I actually talked about this exact example on an episode this offseason, where I talked about how if Hall went to the Jets, it would crush Michael Carter as opposed to crushing Breeze Hall. Carter's a change of pace backs selected on Day three last year. He's not going to split a backfield fifty to fifty with Breece Hall unless Breece Hall ends up being nothing like we think he's going to be. And yes, I know there was a recent report saying that there would be a running back by committee in New York, But how are we defining that? Because I agree Carter's not going to just completely go away, but Hall is still going to see the majority of that work in the backfield, or that's at least how we should project things now. Walker going to Seattle is the most Carroll thing of all time. We knew there were some question marks about his pass catching ability, but he found a home that's been efficient with their running backs. Last handful of years on the ground. Now, that probably has a lot to do with Russell Wilson. But as long as Pete Carroll's around, that team's gonna want to run, They're gonna want to establish it. I do think the pass catching potential is still a question mark for Kenneth Walker, though, even though personnel drives this, It's not like Seattle's been this location for high target chairs at the position. He's not going to a place where they're gonna force targets no matter what. In twenty twenty one, Seattle ranked thirtieth and running back target chair twenty twenty they were sixteenth, twenty nineteen, twenty fourth, twenty eighteen, they were fifteenth twenty seventeen, they were twenty first. Twenty sixteen, they were twenty second. You get the picture. I think the Walker picks signaled that things are really really questionable with Chris Carson right now more than anything else, and the Seahawks value running backs more than other teams do, so they ended up taking Walk with a premium pick. And speaking of team running back target shairs, how about James Cook going sixty third over all to the Bills. Cook is one of the best pass catching running backs in this class. If you recall, the Bills were really close to signing Jad McKissick this offseason before he went back to Washington. They're clearly trying to get a dynamic pass catcher back in their backfield. That's why I don't really care about their recent running back target chairs. They bring twenty ninth and running back target chair in each of the last two seasons, but they haven't had a great pass catching running back to throw to. I would expect that to change with James Cook. Cook also weighed a little bit heavier than expected at the combine. He can still see some early down work too, and it's not like the Bills are afraid to give big workloads the smaller backs. Devin Singletary was dominating touches down the stretch last year, and even though that was largely out of necessity, he's only a few pounds heavier than James Cook. I love this landing spot for Cook. He's my RB three in this class. Now. I don't want to touch on quarterback for that long because I don't think there's a ton to say from a dynasty perspective. The only player you should spend a true premium pick on is Kenny Pickett, and that's only in super flex formats. He's always been pegged as the safe option in this class who lacks the ceiling. But the Steelers are getting a lot of good playmakers and Matt Cannona's offense is going to get Kenny Pickett moving around. He still has some jews from a rushing perspective. Now with the other quarterbacks, what's interesting about their slide in the draft is that Ritter, Willis, and Corral all landed in spots where they could see the field sooner rather than later. Like even though they went later in the draft, they're still not in bad spots, especially Ritter and Corral. I actually expect both of those players to get some starts this season and that should inherently drive up their superflex prices even if they had bad draft capital. Think about Davis Mills last year and how things went for him year one to year two. It's not bankable, but all of these teams are aren't going to be able to land a quarterback next season. And the quarterbacks that we're talking about, they have some mobility. They run the ball more than a Davis Mills does. Quarterback is currency and superflex. That's what makes these guys high risk, high reward picks in those rookie drafts. Now, speaking of Kenny Pickett, the Steelers added two wide receivers in the draft, and George Pickens and Calvin Austin. They're two players who are very, very different. Pickens is more of the traditional X. Austin is a short receiver who profiles more as a speedy slock guy. Honestly, I think Austin is sort of the Ray Ray McCleod replacement. Now, does this really signal anything? Maybe the Steelers were bound to go after a wide receiver or two in this draft because they had no depth behind Deontay Johnson and Chase Claypole, But this also gives them a lot of flexibility. Deontay Johnson still needs to get a new deal, and Chase Claypole didn't take a step forward this past year. This is why I just said that I wouldn't be surprised if Pickens ends up better than Johan Dotson and that the Dotson talk was more about process results. George Pickens has an honest shot to be the Steelers wide receiver one in twenty twenty three, because what if the Steelers don't re sign Deontay Johnson, and is it that hard to imagine that Pickens just ends up being better than Chase Claypole. So to me, the move with Pickens and to a lesser extent, Austin was about filling depth, but also is about flexibility. I'm also interested to see how Pittsburgh deploys their wide receivers here in twenty twenty two because Claypool and Deontay Johnson played very few snaps in the slot last year. Claypool actually played the slot more than Deontay Johnson, and Pickens was not a slot guy at Georgia. It isn't profile to be that kind of player, so I wouldn't be surprised to see some interesting rotation there this season, and maybe even seeing a lot of Chase Claypool there. We saw some round three running backs in this draft too. Historically we've actually seen a decent drop off from round one to round two to round three running backs and how they've performed in fantasy football. So don't think that all Day two are the same. But in round three, Rashad White went to Tampa Bay, ty Davis Price went to San Francisco. White was some of my model comped very favorably to David Johnson. David Johnson, if you recall, was drafted by the Cardinals. Remember who their head coach was when he was drafted, Bruce Arians. You know who's in Tampa Bay's front office right now, Bruce Arians. The problem with White is that he's likely going to have to wait for Leonard Fournette to leave. But Tampa Bay needed depth at running back, and White could at least play a pass catching role for them right away. Fournette's still likely going to be a bell coal in the short term, but White did rank as the third best running back in my model. Post draft, I don't have him ranked there, but he is good. With ty Davis Price. I mean, it's Kyle Shanahan and the forty nine ers. You never know what's going through their minds with running backs. I do think this is way worse for a player like Trey Sermon than Elijah Mitchell. Davis Price was not beloved in my model, and I'm curious as to why he was the pick, because, like Mantell, he's not that much of a pass catcher, or he wasn't in college. He's going to complement Mitchell more than just take over this backfield. It's hard to attach draft capital to a Kyle Shanahan running back and say that it matters a whole lot. But just given the player, I think this is okay. This is an okay outcome for Elijah Mitchell. Mitchell's shown us that he's good, and Davis Price looked pretty average to blow average in my model. And when it comes to running back investments, even though it absolutely happens, the hit rates for Day three running backs are still not great. You'd rather throw darts at running backs in the late rounds than wide receivers, but don't go crazy with how you rank them. From twenty eleven to twenty nineteens, we have a sample where all players that were looking at here had a shot to play three years in the league. Fewer than nine percent of running backs drafted on Day three during this timeframe had one single season with fourteen or more PPR points across their first three in the league, and this is not counting undrafted players. For the record, Aaron Jones has been the biggest hit it probably and a lot of the players in this sample are not consistently good year after year after year, like Miles Gaskin. A lot of that has to do with the yearly volatility and investment that teams make in the position. It just takes one player in a backfield to derail an existing player, like we saw with Breise Hall and Michael Carter. So at least be aware of that before you reach for one of these guys in your rookie draft. With that being said, I think there are some really interesting landing spots and things to dig into with these Day three running backs. Damian Pierce is arguably already the Texans best running back. He didn't carry a huge workload in college. That's kind of a red flag, but he had great tackle breaking numbers per touch. There's definitely some concern, but he was an early Day three pick who could easily be one of the exceptions to the rule. Tyler Algier went to Atlanta, and my model likes him a good bit. I think the fact that the Falcons didn't spend up to get a running back does not mean that they're content with their running back room. They actually released Mike Davis. They just have way bigger holes to fill. It was smart for them to not get a Day two running back and then there's Isaiah Spiller on the Chargers, and that's another interesting one. LA's been trying to fill the Melvin Gordon void for a couple of years now, but guys like Larry Roundtree weren't cutting it. It makes sense that LA wouldn't spend huge capital on a running back because he's likely going to play a part time role. But Spiller now has the opportunity for some work to go along with a lot of upside as a handcuff keyante Ingram going to Arizona was interesting. He got similar draft capital as Eno Benjamin, and that signals the Cardinals are probably cool with riding out James Connor, but they did need some competition for that number two spot. But there's one player who is drafted on Day three that I'm insanely intrigued by, and that's Isaiah Pichecko. I wrote this in The Prospect Guy, but the biggest issue with Clyde Edwards Hilaire has been his explosiveness in the NFL. By the way, Pacheco went to Kansas City, but last year Clyde Edwards Hilaire was actually second best in the league and gaining positive yardage per touch on the ground. Among one hundred plus attempt running backs, but he was also last in the league in gaining twenty or more yards. That's likely why they went out and got Ronald Jones. I've hated on Jones for years on this podcast because he's not a good pass catcher, but he's a good runner who has more upside on the ground than Cech has shown so far. Pachecko can fill that void too. He had the best speed score or wait adjusted forty times at the Combine this year. And get this, of running backs who have been drafted since twenty eleven, listened to the backs who have had a one hundred and fifteen speed score or better while also having a best season touchdown share of at least thirty five percent. Leonard Fournette, Derrick Henry, Robert Turbin, AJ Dillon, Jonathan Taylor, Breise Hall, and Isaiah Pichecko. You know who. Pachecko's top comparable in my model was Damian Williams. You know who crushed it and Andy Reid's offense, Damian Williams. I'm trying to leave all of my rookie drafts with Isaiah Pachecko. He had a really strong draft. Capital Delta in my model, which just a metric that shows how over underdrafted a player seem to be. He's the exact type of dart that you want to throw in the later rounds now. Like I said at the top, plenty of other things happened in this draft. I'm absolutely obsessed with my guy, Khalil Shakir landed. Kyle Phillips is not in a bad spot either in Tennessee. I didn't even talk about one of my other favorites, David Bell. There's a lot of other things that happened, but I wanted to highlight some of the more interesting read between the line stories from the draft and throw in some fantasy advice along the way. So hopefully it helps you wrap your head around this class a little bit better. That's gonna know. For today's show, though, Thanks to all of you for listening. If you get subscribed to the Late Round Fantasy Football podcast, make sure you are by searching for it pretty much anywhere podcasts can be found. You know, foret to follow me on Twitter at Late Round QB. Thanks for listening. Everyone really appreciate it. I'll talk to you later in the week with the Mailbag show.