1069: Mailbag - Devonta Smith's Outlook, Under-the-Radar Wide Receivers, and More

00:00:02
Speaker 1: This is the latest with your host, JJ Zachera, JJ Zacherson. What's up everyone, It's JJ zachar Esen in this episode ten sixty nine of the Late Round Fantasy Football podcast.

00:00:19
Speaker 2: Thank you for tuning in.

00:00:23
Speaker 1: Before I get to the mailbag questions, the season's coming to an end soon, but I want everyone to know that I'm going nowhere. I love the offseason. I get to do more detailed studies, I dig into strategy, I switch to more dynasty content, and I do a ton of prospecting work for the NFL draft in your rookie drafts. This is just to say to make sure you're following everything that we're doing with Late Round Fantasy Football. There's the Patreon that you can subscribe to. There's the YouTube channel YouTube dot com, slash at LATEROUNDFF, and there's the free newsletter. Make sure you're keeping up with everything by heading to lateround dot com and checking everything out. At the very least, subscribe to that news letter. You can stay up to date. It's absolutely free. That's Late Round dot com. Now let's get to these mailbag questions. The first question this week, it was one that I got a couple of times and I'll just read this email from Jason because it's pretty straightforward.

00:01:15
Speaker 2: It says, Hey, JJ love the show.

00:01:18
Speaker 1: It seems like everyone is always talking about league winners when it comes to the Fantasy playoffs, but what about players who might underperform? Is there anyone who helped get us here who might not have a very good next three weeks? So yeah, I've talked about cell candidates leading up to the playoffs in the fifteen Transactions episode each week, and some of those players they still apply here, like Caleb Williams. I'm not very excited to start Williams when he gets Cleveland and Green Bay over these next two games. He was already a fringe starter, but in those matchups he's more of a QB two and that might not cut it in the Fantasy playoffs.

00:01:52
Speaker 2: RJ.

00:01:52
Speaker 1: Harvey's another one. I'm a big fan of his usage, but like I said on one of those shows, and it wasn't actionable necessarily. It's just more a heads up. But Denver has a brutal playoff schedule for running backs. They get the Packers this week, then it's the Jags, and then it's the Chiefs. They're all bottom tiered matchups. For running backs by justin fantasy points allowed. Now, most of the studs who got you here, they're probably gonna help because they're just getting volume. But there are some fringe players like I don't know how you have any confidence right now in Aronde Gadson. He scored six or few REPPR points in each of his last four And then I think the most obvious place to call out here is Indianapolis. No one truly knows exactly how things are gonna go down without Daniel Jones.

00:02:35
Speaker 2: But I said this in the Late Round.

00:02:36
Speaker 1: Fantasy Football discord earlier this week. If a forty four year old Philip Rivers who hasn't played since twenty twenty, if that's what ends up beating me, If I'm wrong because I didn't buy into that, I can live with that, meaning I'm naturally not gonna be bullish on this Colts offense from Alec Pierce to Michael Pittman down to Tyler Warren and Jonathan Taylor, especially this week against the Seattle defense no matter who's under center, And for Jonathan Taylor, he gets San Francisco and Jacksonville in Week sixteen and seventeen. Jacksonville's actually been a bottom ten opponent for running backs this year by justin points allowed. San Francisco mostly average. It's just not a fantastic schedule for him. Maybe he'll just get an insane amount of volume, and my guess is that they're gonna feed him.

00:03:23
Speaker 2: But I think if you.

00:03:23
Speaker 1: Go to one spot to find players who helped you get here who may not be as usable in the fantasy playoffs, it's got to start with this Colts team all because of.

00:03:32
Speaker 2: That Daniel Jones injury.

00:03:34
Speaker 1: Now, some other players that make me very very nervous would be Ashton Gent who faces Philly and Houston the next couple of weeks. And maybe I'll even put Brock Bauers in there, and then I think he does turn it around this week. But Stefvon Diggs has had some really bad usage recently. And then Jacoby Brissett. He's been a QB one in each outing, but I think that ends this week against Houston. In week sixteen and seventeen though, he should be okay. So there's just some random names who popped in my head with this question. Hopefully it gives you an idea of where I'm at.

00:04:06
Speaker 2: This test.

00:04:07
Speaker 1: Questions from twitters from at Morton Underscore Salt Underscore Boy. It says this has been a hot button issue in my league. How do you feel about not rostering a kicker during the week to roster another position? Like right now, I have Loveland and Waller at tight end, but I drop my kicker to pick up Gasiki to evaluate which is the best option, I will start a kicker. I just want some time to think about who is the best start.

00:04:31
Speaker 2: I think it's a.

00:04:31
Speaker 1: Fair thing, but some of the original league members call it, using a quote cheating loophole. Thanks, so, I don't know why it's a cheating loophole when literally anyone can do this if there aren't any rules around it, it's totally reasonable.

00:04:45
Speaker 2: I do it all the time in my leagues.

00:04:47
Speaker 1: With kickers, you're able to maybe wide out an injury during the week and essentially have an extra roster spot. So no, I see nothing wrong with this, And if your league mates are mad at you for doing this, tell them that they're more than welcome to do the exact same thing. This next one's an email from someone who wanted to stay anonymous. It says, in my first round playoff matchup, I'm about a ten point favorite and a half PPR league. My opponent will be starting Kenneth Gainwell. I'm deciding between Jalen Warren and Juwan Jennings. My thought process is this, both Warren and Gainwell can have good weeks, but it feels unlikely that both do. It's more likely that one of them hits, and the odds seems slightly better that it would be Warren. Not starting Warren feels like the conservative move because if he does have a strong week, that probably comes with Gainwell not having a breakout game. And if Warren doesn't play well, whether or not Gainwell does, at least the damage is limited by having him on my bench. I'm interested in your theory on this dynamic, how you'd think about it from the position of being the favorite, and how would you approach the situation from a game theory perspective. So I've talked about this sort of thing in the past, but more and more people have asked about it this week given what's on the line.

00:06:05
Speaker 2: It's the Fantasy playoffs.

00:06:06
Speaker 1: I had someone in my weekly live stream with subscribers ask about starting Isaiah likely because their opponent had Lamar Jackson and I have some thoughts here, which is why I chose this as a mailbag question. First, when you say you're a ten point favorite, that's just not enough for me to dramatically shift my approach. In most cases, projections are just projections. They're forecasts. They're gonna get us directionally in the right place, but they're gonna be wildly wrong all the time because there's.

00:06:35
Speaker 2: Plenty of variance in this game.

00:06:38
Speaker 1: It's why I always tell people to not be overly confident in any of the win probability numbers that you see on any platform. You could be a sixty percent favorite going into the week, you could feel really good about your chances, but one small thing can completely flip that one player really underperforming or overperforming. Now, there may be instances if you're sitting with a coin flip decision where you go in one direction based on what's happening with your opponent, like your example between Jalen Warren and Juwan Jennings. I think you're definitely looking at this properly that if Kenny Gainwell goes off, if he has a big game, Jalen Warren probably won't be having a big game. This is actually something I talked about With that Isaiah Likely question, the thought is that if you start Likely, and if you're a favorite and your opponent has Lamar Jackson, you're sort of limiting the upside of a big Lamar Jackson game.

00:07:29
Speaker 2: In that instance. I actually don't see it that way at all.

00:07:33
Speaker 1: That logic only really works when you're on the side of the quarterback, because what happens if Lamar has four touchdowns this week and one is on the ground and three or through the air, and Isaiah Likely doesn't score any of them, Isaiah Likely can easily have a bad game while Lamar Jackson goes off. We're not talking about like Jackson Smith and Jigba here. It's Isaiah Likely. I like him this week, but he's not Jackson.

00:07:57
Speaker 2: Smith and Jigba. But in your case with the Steelers.

00:08:00
Speaker 1: Running backs, yeah, there are only so many plays on offense for Pittsburgh. They're only gonna score so many touchdowns. The odds that both Warren and Gainwell go nuts it's pretty slim. Now, of course, you're also running into a situation where if you start Warren and he's the guy this week, then that would limit Gainwell. But to your point, if Warren goes off on your bench. You at least know that gainwell likely isn't scoring a ton of points. Now, what's interesting about this scenario is that you're probably gonna have some pretty good information by the time that you actually have to make this decision. This is something that you always have to keep in mind. I think it's a very underrated part to fantasy football game theory. The forty nine Ers play in the late afternoon on Sunday, so a ton of games are going to be played by the time the forty nine Ers play. Let's say this Juwan Jennings versus Jalen Warren start sit is a true coin flip for you, which I don't think it's that far off according to my flex rankings. But let's say it's a true coin flip, and the time those late afternoon games hit, there's a chance that you have a much clearer picture of how your matchup's gonna go. Then you could make your decision that way, because the Steelers play on Monday night. But here's the bottom line. I wouldn't let a ten point advantage in projection dramatically change my decision, dramatically change my approach. If you genuinely see this as a fifty to fifty decision, fine, that can be the tiebreaker. But if you're playing a clear inferior player because of that fact, because you're a big favorite or a decent favorite, I think that's bad process. Maybe a thirty point advantage that would be a different story. This as question is from Patreon. It's from scurb. It says, is Devonte Smith a reliable wide receiver for the fantasy playoffs or is he more of a high risk, high reward type of wide receiver. So here's the dirty little secret about the wide receiver position. And this is something I talked about quite a bit last week, both on the Late Round Fantasy Football show on YouTube but also ten trends.

00:10:00
Speaker 2: Wide receiver sucks this year.

00:10:03
Speaker 1: Literally every wide receiver outside like the top eight, the top ten, they're gonna be volatile. Will feel better about some players more than others. I'm not saying all of them are the same. I'm just saying that almost every wide receiver outside of the elite guys, they have a very real chance of busting in a given week, and Devonte Smith is absolutely no different. Now, one thing I will say is that over the last three weeks Philly's actually ranked second in the NFL. This according to Fantasy Life data, they've been second in the NFL and dropbacks over expected only Arizona is.

00:10:36
Speaker 2: Higher, and they're a lot higher.

00:10:38
Speaker 1: But that's led to Smith's thirty one twenty one percent target shairs transforming into eleven, eight and eight targets.

00:10:46
Speaker 2: Those are good target totals.

00:10:49
Speaker 1: The problem I have with Smith in Week fifteen, in particular, is that I'm very, very nervous about the Eagles just going incredibly run heavy. They get the Raiders this week. They're huge favorites, and the Raiders are gonna be with Gino Smith. I mean, there's a very high chance we don't see a lot of passing volume for the Eagles, so you need early game conversions and touchdowns for guys like AJ Brown and DeVante Smith. And look, maybe we see something similar against Washington next week, but the Commanders have at least had moments this year even with Marcus Mariota where they're able to move the football and Terry mclaurin's back, and then week seventeen it's against Buffalo, passing volume will probably be there. Smith's peripherals are fine. You just have to worry about how this offense is going to operate after what we saw in week fourteen.

00:11:34
Speaker 2: So is he reliable? Yes and no.

00:11:37
Speaker 1: He's reliable as like a wide receiver three type, and he could be ranked in like the low end wide receiver two range. But like I said, that's only because wide receiver is just so so flat. There's this giant group who could be ranked that high. Usually from a projection standpoint, you'll then lean on talent, and DeVante Smith has talent, which is why he can be ranked as like a low end wide receiver two. But there's no doubt that I have some volume concerns here in week fifteen. I don't think he's an auto start, depending on your roster. This next question is from at Lags nine to one to four on Twitter. It says, Hey, JJ, how do you feel about Justin Herbert moving forward? I feel very nervous about the matchup against Kansas City, even though he bawled out last time.

00:12:21
Speaker 2: Thanks.

00:12:22
Speaker 1: Yeah, I feel really nervous about it too. The Chargers are actually in a pretty tough spot in these Fantasy playoffs. The offensive line is still messy. They get the Chiefs in Kansas City this week, which I think is a huge difference than what we saw earlier this year where they were playing indoors and Justin Herbert was one hundred percent and that offensive line looked a lot better. And then it's the Texans in Week seventeen. Like, I have Herbert this week as a very very clear QB two, and he's gonna rank as a QB two in week seventeen.

00:12:51
Speaker 2: Two.

00:12:52
Speaker 1: You can't drop him in the Chargers though, because next week it's Dallas and Herbert's probably gonna rank as a decent QB one next week. But yeah, I'm definitely nervous about Herbert and this offense in two of their next three games. I think it's very reasonable to play a streamer over Justin Herbert this week. We actually haven't seen Herbert give us a usable performance since Week nine. The last question this week is from Twitter's from at justin w three four seven, seven, four to six. It says who are the under the radar wide receivers who could help us down the stretch and win Fantasy championships this year? So, like I said with Devonte Smith in that answer, wide receiver sucks. There's a lot of volatility with the non elite guys. But here are some wideouts who I think are kind of interesting down the stretch. And for the record, I didn't choose like super obvious players in my opinion, but these players have sort of been like fringe starters, maybe even guys on your bench, but I think they're in good spots for the final stretch. Okay, the first one Jamison Williams Detroit gets LA in a potential shootout this week. That it's Pittsburgh who hasn't been great at defending perimeter wide receivers, and then it's a tough game against Minnesota in Week seventeen. But over the next couple of weeks, I do think JMO could be fine, and that's based on the fact that he's seen thirty seven percent and twenty nine percent target shaars over his last two games, which is great to see. Another one is Juwan Jennings, the topic of one of the questions earlier. San Francisco gets Tennessee, Indianapolis, and Chicago to end their fantasy season. That's one of the best passing attack schedules in all of fantasy football, and Jennings has been low key really good for the forty nine ers over their last five games, he scored four times. And it's not just touchdowns here, those are likely to regress. He's seen no lower than a twenty one percent target share in each of his last seven games. That's awesome. So that, combined with the schedule, makes me really like Juwan Jennings. And then there's Jordan Addison, one of the sleepers this week. Now, people won't want to hear this, and I definitely think this one has more volatility, there's no doubt. But if things start to click more with this passing attack just a little bit more with JJ McCarthy, The Vikings get the Cowboys this week, amazing matchup. And then it's the Giants and the Lions. And Addison has seen target shers of thirty four and a half percent and thirty percent over his last two games. Now, I'll say Luther Burden here because I think he's just really talented and the opportunity is on the rise. But I don't love Chicago's schedule, and we could see Roma douonsday over the next week or two possibly, but he's just strictly my talented rookie breakout. And then the last wide receiver, I'll shout out as Jaden Reid. The Packers do get a tough matchup this week against Denver, but if you can get past that game, He'll finish the season against Chicago and Baltimore, both teams that haven't been great and adjusted points allowed to wide receivers. But beyond that, we know Reed is a slot guy. Chicago this season they rank first and adjusted slot fantasy points allowed to wide receivers, so that's adjusted for strength of opponent. Baltimore ranks as the fifth best matchup. Heat is naturally vouatle because of the role that he plays in that offense. He's not gonna see like ninety percent route shares and I'd prefer Christian Watson over him rest of season. I'm just trying to answer under the radar, and he's far more under the radar right now than Christian Watson is. That's it for today's show, though, thanks to all of you for listening. If you have subscribed to the Late Round Fantasy Football podcast, make sure you are reteting for it pretty much anywhere podcast can be found, and to follow me on Twitter and on Blue Sky at Late Round QB.

00:16:30
Speaker 2: Thanks for listening everyone.

00:16:31
Speaker 1: There's gonna be a Perspectives episode dropping later today I think you're gonna dig that. And then at one pm Eastern over on the YouTube channel YouTube dot com slash at Late Round FF I'll be live with David Kitchen for this week's Late Round Fantasy Football show. And if you miss that, it will be in the podcast feed tomorrow morning. Thanks for listening, everyone, greatly appreciate it. Good luck this week. I'll talk to you in week sixteen.