370: Mailbag 5/1/20

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Speaker 1: This is the Late Podcast with your host JJ zacher Retha JJ zacher reson.

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Speaker 2: What's up everyone.

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Speaker 1: It's JJ Zacheres and the editor in chief at FanDuel and at number fire dot com. And this is episode three hundred and seventy of the Late Round podcast on many shows that are part of the FanDuel podcast Network. Thanks for tuning in. We've got a lot to go over today, but before getting to your questions, I wanted to let you know about Fandel's free Props pick'em contest. All you have to do is correctly pick five props every day and go at least twenty five of thirty five over the course of the week to split the twenty five hundred dollars weekly payout, then get back in on the action the next week. It's that easy. Agent location restrictions apply, no purchase necessary, void where prohibited. For more details is at fandel dot com and check out the win from Home banner and the FanDuel Lobby. The first question this week is kind of a long one, but I think it's a good one one.

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Speaker 2: It's an email. It says Hi JJ.

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Speaker 1: First off, thanks for all the awesome content over the last few weeks and it's been great to rewind back through some important episodes.

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Speaker 2: Thanks.

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Speaker 1: I wanted your thoughts on drafting and rookie drafts, on probability of success in the short, medium, and long term. I find myself with a running back needy team and in possession of the one oh one, one oh two and one oh five. It's a PPR one quarterback league, and I have to start two running backs and can start two flex I know I'm taking Ceh at one oh one, so that's fine. Should I prioritize taking somebody like Acres over Taylor or Swift who have landed in spots that look more like committees. I ask this as in the short term, an owner might be more reluctant to part with somebody like Acres who has an opportunity to win a backfield now and impact immediately, whereas with Taylor and Swift there is the potential for their impact to be limited by the committee situation, subsequently decreasing their value for some owners, and I can possibly get these cheaper price mid season. An earlier mid rounder on Taylor or Swift in May twenty twenty could become a late one in November twenty twenty, Whereas with Acres landing spot, his mid to late round one valuation in May twenty twenty could become significantly steeper in the twenty twenty season if he appears to have won the committee battle. Therefore, how do we match running back landing spots to short term opportunity to contribute an impact on medium term value? Do we prioritize acres in Vaughn, whose values could rocket quickly over Taylor or Swift who might have to give their due to mac hines and carry on. Thank you again for all your awesome work, Josh. Okay, that was a long one. That was a long email. I hope you guys were able to sort of digest all of that. But I think it's a very important thing to talk about. The high level point that I want to make here is to not overestimate your ability to predict the future. I don't think it's locked in that Cam Makers and Kishan Vaughan have one of the easiest and best paths to getting a full workload this season. I'd actually argue that Jonathan Taylor does. Marlon Mack is not a special back. He's just as replaceable as Ronald Jones or Darryl Henderson. When you add in the fact that the Colts could be considered more of a win now team given their quarterback situation. They're not just gonna let Jonathan Taylor as long as he's as good as advertised.

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Speaker 2: They won't just let him sit in the garage for Marlon Mack. Now.

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Speaker 1: With that being said, I think anything is possible for any of these backs. To try and predict which one will be and won't be in a committee in year one when it can impact future seasons. That's bad process in my opinion, because what if you're wrong about the Rams backfield split.

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Speaker 2: What if you completely whift on how the Colts handle things.

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Speaker 1: Not only that, but don't overstate the inflated value a player like Akers would have after just a couple of months as a lead back. He's not certain to work out, and even if he does, you can't assume his price jumps over the other backs in this class. Basically, what I'm saying is to not overthink this stuff, try not to predict things in too much detail, because there are times like this one where you can become suboptimal. Of course, cam Akers could end up being the top back in the class. Of course that's in his range of outcomes. I love cam Akers, but drafting him simply for short term opportunity when we're not even sure that opportunity is going to exist, is an iffy thing to do. Get Ceh, Get Jonathan Taylor, and if you want, get the last back remaining of the Big five at the one oh five spot has questions from my friend at Davis Maddick. He says, are there any of the second year disappointments Justice Hill, Darwin Thompson, Damien Harris, Travion Williams, Travis Homer, et cetera that you consider dynasty buys? So, as you guys know, the bailing on Unproductive Rookies episode basically told you that if a running back isn't very productive to start his NFL career, he's likely not going to be productive in future years. Good running backs were generally good in year one. There are exceptions, but it's the truth. I am a little intrigued by Trayvon Williams though last year's rookie running back class was pretty weak, but Williams had one of the best stat scores in that class according to my model, and with draft capital, he's about a sixty fifth percentile running back. That doesn't give him very good odds to be a top twenty running back in the future, but it could be worse. And we're not talking about spending a second rounder to get Trayveon Williams. He's basically free. With Joe Mixon wanting a new contract and with the Bengals beefing up that offense, I think he's at least an interesting dart throw right now. Just be okay with dropping him when he likely doesn't pan out. The next question is in email, says hi jj Firstley, thank you for all the great offseason content. Hope you and your family are holding up well. Thank you you too. After the bizarre Packers draft, I'm interested to hear your thoughts on Aaron Jones's outlook for twenty twenty, given he should still see the majority of work in a healthy amount of targets. Thanks and stay safe, Jonathan. Yeah, so, I tweeted a little bit about this the other day, But it's possible that we go from Aaron Jones being a sell to Aaron Jones being a bye in fantasy. For one of the most important things I think people should recognize in fantasy is that they're not playing a game of saying this guy is good, I want this player. It's more this guy is good at this price, so I'll try to trade for him. We're playing the market in fantasy football, and Aaron Jones went from being beloved to someone who's on his last year of his contract while staring at a three headed committee. But here's my educated guest with this entire situation. Aaron Jones was utilized more and more as a receiver last year, and even when DeVante Adams returned from his injury, he had almost a ten percent target share per game. Aaron Jones was also third in the NFL in running back air yards. Jones has the pass catching ability that they'd hypothetically need in the future with AJ Dillon in the mix. And I'll get to more on AJ Dillon in a second. The Packers, who have a thirty six year old quarterback, have to try and win now. Their moves this past week don't necessarily scream win now. But this is a team that's trying to focus more on running the ball. So I'm not sure that we should judge where they're at as an organization based on the moves that they made. They're trying to be more run focused, but they still have a thirty six year old quarterback who's very good. So it wouldn't shock me if they extend Aaron Jones. And if they do that, then you're looking at a committee with AJ Dillon after this twenty twenty season. In the twenty twenty season, I think we'll see all three backs mixed in that includes Jamal Williams, but with Jones leading the charge, considering he's the best back on that roster. The fear to me is goal line work. AJ Dillon is a big boy, but Jones was really effective close to the end zone last year, as we all know, so I don't think that we can just assume that he'll lose all of those goal line touches. So in all, I still think he's a top twenty running back in fantasy football, at least this season. I've got him at RB fifteen right now my projections, and I think that's a logical place for him to be because that's where you start to get into some of those more committee type backs. This next question is from at Chris Jah eight one zero five nine four six five. Packers executives said that even though AJ Dillon didn't catch in college. He has the ability? How do they know that? Okay, so I think the narrative that AJ Dillon can't catch passes is a little bit overblown.

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Speaker 2: Is he likely to be pretty one dimensional in the NFL? Yeah? Probably.

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Speaker 1: It wouldn't surprise me if he takes on a Derrick Henry light type role for Green Bay like early career Derrick Henry. But Dylan caught thirteen passes last year in a run heavy Boston College offense. He accounted for over eight percent of the team's receptions. Dylan's final season reception share was better than Josh Kelly's and DJ Dallas's, and it was almost as high as Darrenton evans nine point one percent rate. I mean, Anthony McFarlane caught three more passes in college than AJ Dillon, but no one is really talking about that fact to McFarland's profile. Of course, the sample size is pretty small for a below average reception share on a run heavy team, but that's kind of the case for a lot of these running backs. If they feel comfortable with what they saw on they can make the conclusion that he has the ability. This has questions for my Buddy at a Meeksta Anthony Amiko. He says, what does Atlanta not drafting a running back mean for Todd Gurley? I think a lot of people, myself included, assume they would take one. Could still add someone like a Carlos Hide in free agency. But is it possible Gurley returns to being in RB one this season? Yeah? I mean I should have probably brought this up on the show earlier this week because this is a great example of teams showing us where their heads are at. But yes, this is great news for Todd Gurley. I thought Atlanta was a candidate to spend up on a cam Akers type prospect, and then they didn't. Right now, my projections have Gurley as a middle of the road RB two, so he definitely has RB one upside. Like I've said in the past, my big worry is how the Falcons haven't been nearly as friendly close to the goal line as the Rams have been over the last few years. That could limit Gurley's touchdown ceiling. But I still have him for seven to eight touchdowns on the ground this year, and it wouldn't surprise me if that number ends up being higher. This nice question says how are you viewing Nikil Harry assuming the Patriots wide receiving corpse doesn't change before the season. I'm assuming Stidham and Hoyer doesn't excite you, but one is your take. And then on top of that, I got another question that said, why all the recent hate for Nikill Harry? Are we already giving up on a first round receiver who was loved by so many in the fantasy community. Can't seem to find anything positive anymore? Okay, so let's talk a little Nikhil Harry. Like I talked through on that bailing on Unproductive Rookies episode, Harry's an interesting case from a point scored standpoint. He doesn't have a super bright future, but he was also injured, and that's a pretty big key for players who ended up turning their careers around after not getting off to a hot start. The thing is, I don't think there's really hate for Nikill Harry. That's not what the market is telling us. According to Dynasty League football dot COM's average draft position data, Harry's still listed as a top forty wide receiver in fantasy football, and he's being drafted right after Jalen Reager and Henry Ruggs who went higher than him in the NFL draft, and those are two guys that we haven't really seen walk onto a football field and fail to really light it up. So from that perspective, only even if we see a rise in where Jalen Reager and Henry Ruggs are being drafted, those guys should absolutely be ahead of Nikhil Harry. I'm sort of in the middle with Harry, though he definitely looked good in my prospect model, but I wasn't wowed by him in year one, and I think a lot of the concerns about his lack of separation in college did translate to the NFL or has so far, and it's hard for me to be excited about him in the short term. Given the Patriots quarterback situation. Maybe I'm totally wrong about this, Maybe they go out and sign Andy Dalton. At the time of this recording, Andy Dalton has been released, but he hasn't been signed yet anywhere. But the Patriots offense could be scary bad this year, like that's in their range of outcomes. Harry might see a decent bit of volume by default, but there are a ton of other offenses that I'd rather invest in. I think the conversation would be different with Harry if we didn't have this awesome twenty twenty draft class. But I'd rather have a lot of these newcomers, given their profiles were almost as good, if not better than Harry's, and they haven't played an NFL snap to give us some doubt. This asked questions from at Jason Katz thirteen. With the death of the wide receiver one and more teams with multiple viable running backs, how do you gain an edge drafting your team assuming you can't get one of the three hundred touch backs or Michael Thomas? In other words, what approach can you use to gain an edge if we picked towards the back end? Yeah, I mean, I think that this goes back to what I talked about earlier, and it's that we all need to embrace variants as much as possible. Embrace ambiguity too. Players are going to emerge. There will be guys who ended up seeing big workloads who weren't necessarily projected for those big workloads, like I talked about earlier with Jonathan Taylor, and there will be players on the flip side of that as well. Embracing ambiguity could mean going for running backs who have the best shot to come out of their committee again like some the rookie backs this year. And honestly, don't be afraid to trade back. If you're drafting and you can trade, use your tiers to know when a tear stops and a new one starts, so that you're extracting the most value possible. I don't think the only answer to this question is draft strategy related, at least not right now. Draft strategy is partially dictated by the market, and we don't have all that information right now. I think a lot of where you can win in fantasy football, especially in today's game, is more related to understanding range of outcomes and how you actually know way less about situations and players than you think. We know a lot about the game, and we can project fairly well. But like I always say, projection building isn't there just for the end result. It's not just about that final number. It's not just about how many fantasy points a guy is supposed to score. You build projections so you can find where there are paths to upside for certain players. So even though a projection may not show it in the back of your head. You know a player's got certain upside in the potential for a high end outcome of certain things break their way. That's how I think that you can gain the biggest edge with all of these committees at running back and the flat and target distribution at wide receiver. Don't be so tied to the idea that each player only has one path to follow. This last question is from at pel three sixteen. Talk to me about Roquel Armstead. Sounds like Fournette and the Jags both went out, with the Jags not adding a running back in the draft. Would Armstead be a top twenty four option in fantasy or are the Jags such a mess that it's best to avoid him. Fournette is currently RB seventeen and PPR on Fantasy Pros thanks from the uk Okay, so, I don't think it's a lock that Fournette is out of Jacksonville in twenty twenty. The Jags apparently tried hard to trade him around the draft, but they couldn't find a trade partner, and then after not going for running backs in the draft, that only helped Fournette's case for staying. Armstead is fine and was pretty average in my motto. I don't think he automatically would see a Leonard Fournette type workload at all. It's not like they spent a super high pick to get Armstead. I'm actually kind of interested in divine a Zigbo and James Robinson. Both players went undrafted, where a Zigbo was undrafted last year and James Robinson this year, but both players had pretty good final season production. A Zigbo had a near seven yards per attemp during his final year with a pretty good yards per team play rate, and he's a big dude, weighing over two hundred and twenty pounds. James Robinson went to Illinois State, so he's a smaller school back, but he had one of the best stat scores in my model in this class. Yes, you're going to pose better numbers if you're a professional playing for Illinois State, but he was the best undrafted running back prospect in my model this year by far. He was better than a lot of backs who were actually drafted in the model. So to wrap that all up, I don't think Fournette leaving Jacksonville is even the probable thing to happen anymore, but if it does, I'm interested in throwing darts at a zigbow and Robinson. I'd do that right now in deeper dynasty formats in case the Jags do end up moving Fournette, but do keep in mind that they'd likely add a veteran as well.

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Speaker 2: This last question says, which are the guys that have.

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Speaker 1: Gadget potential do you think landed in the best spot for Fantasy or otherwise, specifically Chanault, Gibson, or Boden. I wouldn't necessarily consider Chanault a gadget player, or at least in the same way that we're talking about Antonio Gibson and Lynn Boden. But I can tell you that I'm pretty into Antonio Gibson and I don't mind his landing.

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Speaker 2: Spot at all.

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Speaker 1: I'll get to this more on my ranking show on Monday, but he could end up being one of those cases where extreme athleticism just trump's any mediocre college production. He wasn't used a whole lot at Memphis, but when he was used, he was unbelievably efficient, so that's at least a plus. And then he went out and he ran a four to three ninety at two hundred and twenty eight pounds. The dude is a freak, So you have a whole lot of downside. Why didn't Memphis just use him more? That's the downside, But the upside is that what if they did just misuse him, that Washington can find ways to get him the ball, and that his athleticism really does translate. That's the type of risk reward that I want in rookie drafts. That's gonna do it for today's show, though. Thanks to all of you for listening. If you've got to subscribe to the Late Round podcast, make sure you are by searching for it pretty much anywhere podcasts can be found, and don't forget to follow me on Twitter at Late Round QB. Thanks everyone. I'll talk to you on Monday with my post draft rankings episode.