Early Win Totals Takeaways and OL Draft Preview

00:00:04
Speaker 1: Welcome to NFL Daily, where the big uglies are beautiful to us. I'm Greg Rosenthal here with Nick Shook, continuing our look ahead to the NFL Draft. It's been a big week. We did the quarterbacks little mock draft, and now we're going to take a look at Nick Shook's favorite type of players, the offensive lineman, just like he was back in the day.

00:00:28
Speaker 2: Oh yeah, back in the day when I was a little bit wider around. And yeah, I mean, I don't know how you're still doing all this draft content where you have forties and free agents and now you're over here talking.

00:00:39
Speaker 3: I mean, you're just pumping it out.

00:00:41
Speaker 1: No, this is a week where it felt like we've been talking about Okay, we're gonna like slowly keep getting more and more draft content, and then you know, with two weeks left until the draft, where we're at now, Okay, now we're just going daily draft content. And look, the offensive line not the sexiest position on draft. Teams, like fans are always a little disappointed. Oh we drafted a guard, Oh we drafted a tackle. And then at the end of the season everyone's like, how come our offensive line isn't great? Like, how come the Eagles are winning the Super Bowl year after year, so we got to do it, and we're gonna make it fun by giving you a bunch of different categories, taking like kind of the big picture view of it. This is believed to be quite a deep class, especially at interior offensive linemen, and the tackle class is solid. But like a lot of this draft class, it's kind of pick you know, it's dealer's choice where the very top of the class maybe isn't as good as other years, but it's very deep and solid, you know, picks ten through seventy. So I'm going to just give you some categories. We'll try to hit all the relevant first couple of round guys as we go, and if we don't, I'll circle back and mention a couple. But you're the offensive line guy, I want you to start off with the category what we're gonna call like the ultimate Shook player. Who is the player from this class on the O line that's like the ultimate ship guy.

00:02:00
Speaker 2: Yeah, we're years removed from me doing behind the offensive line on NFL dot Com, but make no mistake, I still am very fond of all these guys, and one of the guys that I'm fondest of is Oregon tackle Josh Connerly, who I loved his workout. I loved a lot of his tape at Oregon and what I see because the first thing I love in offensive lineman when I watched them India, when I watch them on tape, can they move? Can they get out in space? Can they you know, win the battle of angles in the to gain the leverage necessary to wall off a guy or block them. Not necessarily the road graders necessary, or the guys that are, you know, just so physically powerful that they're overwhelmingly impressive, but guys that can get in the right space, because in football it's all about winning at the point of attack and getting there first and creating those lanes for running backs. And I think that Connorly is this guy. He is this guy who's got a developmental side to him where he has the footwork, he has the athleticism, he moved swiftly through his drills in the combine.

00:02:56
Speaker 3: The tape backs it.

00:02:57
Speaker 2: Up, and it almost feels like he's a guy who is going to put on strength at the next level and become a complete tackle. There's a reason why you talk about Joe Thomas talked about this all the time basketball players at tackle. You want the athletes out there. Lane Johnson is a great example of that. Do you have the frame and the athleticism, you put the weight on, they still have that body control. They become perennial All pros and future Hall of famers. Not saying that Connor is going to be that guy, but he is the blend of athleticism, of fundamentals and technique, and you add a little bit of strength and stoutness to him, and I think he's going to be good at the next level. And I'm a big fan of him and excited to see where he goes.

00:03:32
Speaker 1: I love that you're planting your flag on Josh Connerly. So he is thirty sixth in the consensus board, which is something that just if you want to check out that website, it just averages all the big boards all over the place. He's thirty eighth on Daniel Jeremiah's board. But he stands out to me in a way because I listened to a great episode of Nate Tyson's podcast Football three oh one, and he had his dad on Mike Tice, who is an offensive line coach forever in the NFL, and I love the way he sees the position. And it was just hilarious to see if father son and he had Connorly as ol one by the way in the class. Yes, so higher than Will Campbell, higher than armand Membo like he had him. He was a running back way back in the day. Connorly so even if he's not like an amazing athlete on player here, like he knows how to play. He played well against Abdul Carter, and I like that you're seeing it a little differently. I'm it's gonna be real. I'm having you be the expert today because I'm gonna read a lot and I'm gonna listen to a lot and see a lot with the offensive lineman. But I'm not going to pretend that I'm like grinding left tackle tape. We're trying to give our listeners, like a good idea of the guys that they'll be taking in the draft. Let's do it with another category. Let's go most likely to be an All pro first. So in theory, this is a sneaky way of me asking, like who would be the best guy in this class at any position? Not who gets drafted the highest, but who is the most likely to be an All Pro player first.

00:05:02
Speaker 2: This is where teams swing and miss a lot, is that they go for the measurables. They go for Granity had a good year at guard this year, but they go for the Makai Bectons because they test well and they're just massive human beings. But oftentimes the fit isn't right, or maybe the type of player isn't right. They fall in love with the fact that he's massive and he's a freak athlete, but maybe he's not the best offensive lineman. I'm gonna go with a little bit of a catch on this one because this is a guy who's been talked about a lot, positively and negatively. It's Will Campbell to tackle from LSU, and I'm saying he's most likely to be an All Pro first at guard. Okay, and yeah, this has been the debate with him. The length issue. Oftentimes it's like hand size. Maybe you don't see it, maybe it's overblown. I see it with him. I see it in his tape. But he has tremendous feet. He is very experienced from his time at lsuh restarted as a freshman, but he lacks that length that you need to win against guys like Miles Garrett, against those powerful long edge rushers that can have incredible bend and can simply use their length to create the separation where you never get your hands on him. If you're lacking that as a tackle, and it kind of shows in his tape, that's going to be an issue for you at the next level. But I think he has the rest of the tools in his toolbox to be a fantastic guard, could be an All Pro guard. I don't know if he ends up with a team that moves him to that. I think that's his long term future, just because I'm going for higher ceiling, and his higher ceiling is as a guard than it is as a tackle, solid tackle, All Pro guard.

00:06:27
Speaker 3: That's why he's my pick.

00:06:28
Speaker 1: Yeah, and also this is a class where there's not a lot of like projected All pros, and he's eighth on the consensus board, and that's eighth player overall, not eighth at the position ninth on Jeremiah's big board, so they're in the same spot there. Yeah, there's a lot of talk about his arm length, and you think about some of the great guards recently, Quentin Nelson, he did play a little left tackle, but ultimately he was a guard. Zach Martin played a little left tackle, played well, Ultimately he was a guy. Tyler Smith who's playing really well for the Cowboys, played some tackle, and all these guys can do it, but it can be even better. And when he listened to Campbell in terms of the makeup the reps, I mean, this guy has just played a ton of big time football. There's a lot to like. And the thing that gets me the most about him in terms of guard, tackle, all this stuff, because a lot of these guys could be guards or tackles. Look at what the guards are making right now in the NFL, Like Aaron Banks, a pretty generic guard from the forty nine ers, just got seventy seven million over four years. So I'm listening to what Jeremiah has said on our show Forties and free Agents, and like this is the draft. Maybe throw away the positional value thing, because like, just pick who you think is going to be a good player, don't worry if it's guard or tackle. And guards are basically making money that cornerbacks are making like number one cornerbacks, Like they're making a little less than tackles, but they're still making a ton of.

00:07:51
Speaker 2: Money, and I think about what does he win with that? Will Campbell specifically, he wins with his feet because he doesn't have that length. He wins with his feet in his positioning, and I think that can translate phenomenally well at guard. Let's think about the NFC Divisional round in which the Eagles play the Rams and they're getting beat by stunts in the entire second half by Vig Fangio's defense. Right, he's a guy who has the feat to be able to adjust to that, to be able to become a brick wall that you can count on in those situations. Win with angles, win with leverage. I don't care if he's that if he's not that long, when you're playing guard, and then you also have the ability to get to second level and really explode, you know, open up that run game. I just think it's going to be a higher ceiling for him, and again, best player, like you're gonna build out your best five. I don't care if he's playing left tackle right, you know, it's the blind side protection and everything else.

00:08:37
Speaker 3: I don't care.

00:08:37
Speaker 2: I want the best offensive lineman in the best spot, and I think that's his best fit.

00:08:41
Speaker 1: Think about how the Eagles won all those games. I mean the Packers, they made them look so bad in terms of their interior offensive line. Yeah, the Commanders, they I mean, they dominate that game in a number of ways, but that was one of them. In the Chiefs as well, like really every game they played, the guard position on the opposite team was a major problem. All right, let's go to a different care Let's talk interior alignment. So this is where it really gets into the nitty gritty shook. Were you a tackle or guard? You're probably a tackle.

00:09:07
Speaker 2: I was a guard in high school because I played next to a six seven like d one recruit, and then college smaller school was a tackle.

00:09:15
Speaker 1: Okay, yeah, you seem like more of like a dancing bear athletic type of guy. But you know, break breaking down the interior offensive line tape. Look when they're like running on the sweeps and stuff, that's fun and the center getting out and pulling like that's fun. But ultimately, I think for the average fan, they're not just grinding that tape and thinking this is fun to watch. Guards. Give me an interior alignment that is fun to watch.

00:09:37
Speaker 2: Oh, that means they wouldn't enjoy my last day at the combine every year when you're watching guys with long poles, just getting excited about foot quickness. My favorite interior offensive lineman to watch on tape. This is a throwback, This is a classic. This is the highlights that you're going to see on your social media platforms. Because he's a bruiser, he's a maller. His name is Tyler Booker from Alabama. And I was listening to forties and free Agents and listening to DJ talk about how he had slid in his mock draft because he didn't have a good combine, but he got some of that back at the pro day, and I think that you can bind those two results with the tape. Big fan of him, but why I love him the most? Oh my god, Greg. If you like pancakes and you like guys who are like Velcrow with their hands, when they latch on and engage, they don't let go, Tyler Booker is your guy. He is consistently knocking guys off balance or planting them into the ground. He engages and does not let go. Once his hands are on you, you're cooked. You're gonna be with him for the rest of the players and just hold on for the ride. Guess is getting launched by him, Like I'm just laughing watching his tape because he just gets in there. Sometimes he'll finish guys off on double teams just for the fun of it. It looks like there's one clipping in particular I saw where he's in pass pro and it's like a three man brush and there's a guy kind of just floating, you know, maybe playing a little bit of quarterback spy on Jaylen Noilro and at the last second, he just steps up and launches him to the ground. Like I'm just This guy is so much fun to watch. He's extremely stout in pass protection. He's got good eyes out in space, especially when he moves to the second level. When you get into him impact pro, it becomes a stalemate, which is what you want, especially on those longer dropbacks, that they're not gaining depth, that you're holding that wall and all I advise to guys who play against him, don't get caught on his train tracks because you're gonna get run over. He's got great engagement, great drive, great power, and those hands are really strong. He wins hand fights all the time. There was another clip where they're playing Vanderbilt, and he knocks the guy's hands down. The guy just false face first in the ground. My classic throwback, big interior offensive lineman who's out to prove a point and finish every play with emphasis.

00:11:29
Speaker 3: It's Tyler Booker.

00:11:31
Speaker 1: Love that, and he is twenty seventh on the consensus board. He is twenty third on DJ's board. And so he's probably gonna get taken into a good situation by a good team as a piece for a team that just needs some improvement to get them further in the playoffs. It could be it could be like the Chargers. It could be I think the Lions planning for the future if he fell all the way down to them. We're going to talk about these teams. By the way, I should have mentioned at the top uh in our over under segment. The over unders have been out for a minute, and we just have some things that make us say hmm about those and just some categories, some thoughts to wrap the show. But I love all that on on Tyler Booker. He's a guy. You know, some people think maybe he's going to be better in like a gap power type of scheme. Right, I was gonna say more than his own, But like, isn't every team both at this point, I mean, every every team has to do a little bit of a bath. I do worry about this type of guy, although everyone really thinks he's a very safe, solid prospect. I do worry about sometimes the guy that you hear the first thing you hear about him is he just likes to put the guys in the dirt. I don't know. Sometimes those guys turn into Trevor Penning and we'll see, we'll see, let's go, let's go Boomer. But I don't know if you're just lead with that like I need more. Then again, some of those some of those guys turn into Quinn Miners, Who's been very fun to watch, right, I was gonna say who the truth the category is fun to watch, and Quinn Miners has turned into one of the best third round picks of the last like five years, maybe one of the best guards in the entire NFL. So you never know, all right, let's go with boom or busts. So it doesn't mean you're you're necessarily down on the player, but you just don't know. And I do think offensive linemen because they get drafted so high the last few years. Like linemen, tackles especially just keep getting pushed up and up and up, and some really do. It's got a higher bust rate, I think than most positions. But a player that you think has potential, but you're not sure if it's going to work.

00:13:29
Speaker 2: Yeah, And I also think about there was a period for about ten years where colleges were just having guys slide protect him. They didn't learn the basic fundamentals that you need it at the next level to really thrive, especially quickly. And we know the pages in this league is running thinner and thinner at multiple positions, not just quarterback.

00:13:42
Speaker 3: But we just talked about fit.

00:13:44
Speaker 2: Right, I'm going with tackle Kelvin Banks from Texas And the reason is you said, well, is he, you know, a gap scheme guy? Or is can he you know thrive and zone? Everybody's a little bit of both. He's listed at sixty five three fifteen, but he when you watch him move because he's got so much of that weight in his trunk and his lower body the posterior chain as some people might refer to it, as he looks a little slower and he's very stout. That's good for him because he's very stout, but when he gets out in space, you see the desire to get there. It's just not as quick as some of the other guys, and as a fan of those who are very good at moving, it makes me a little bit concerned. He's a force of an offensive lineman. He's very He moves as if he's heavy, but it's not too slow. The strike when he engages, and the upper body strength wins emphatically. A bit of a lunder in the run game. I think a lot of that is because he's not quite there on time, but he's got great eyes to get to the second level.

00:14:36
Speaker 3: He's just not super quick.

00:14:37
Speaker 2: So I actually had listed in my notes as a man or a gap scheme guy as opposed to his zone guy, and you have to do a little bit of both, but it's fit. If you're a zone dependent team, probably not going to get the best results out of him. If you're something that's a little bit of both or more of a gap scheme, then you're probably going to have a better fit for him as well. So that's why I say boom or bust. He's a guy that's been mentioned among some of the top tackles, so we'll see we'll see if teams have the same kind of read on him and if they are willing to take a risk if they're not quite the same fit or not.

00:15:06
Speaker 1: Yeah, fifteenth on the consensus board and then down to twenty ninth in Jeremiah's board, which is that's a pretty big gap. Actually, So a lot of people who I trust seem to see him like you do, maybe like Jeremiah does in terms of baking in that. They're just they're just not sure that he's the type of guy that gets drafted high. He could be a right tackle, he could he could be a guard potentially, but a little bit of a boomer bust guy. I get it. But you know, back in the day, the very cliche scouting term that would be in those Bob McGinn write ups, which I still read them and yet they're increasingly problematic, they would use the phrase like looks like Tarzan, plays like Jane. That was the old that was like the classic terrible.

00:15:50
Speaker 3: Scouting term oily hips bubblah.

00:15:54
Speaker 1: But yeah, let's just go with like, who's the best athlete. I'm just curious, do you think these like there athlete of guys that we haven't mentioned, they're just overall.

00:16:05
Speaker 2: Arman Membu crushed the combine. He put together a phenomenal testing performance and a lot of the tape from Missouri, Yes, from Missouri. The tackle fits what you saw in the testing. He's really light on his feet. And the good thing that I really enjoyed about him is he improved over time. Like you could see a little bit earlier in his career at Missouri, he's playing right tackle, he ends up moving to left tackle. It looks like he's more comfortable at left tackle, and you can tell that he just got better year by year. He became more consistent. He keeps a really good base when he moves Laterly, he's another guy who's addicted to finishing blocks, but he'll take it almost past the whistles. Sometimes he does not bite in his past sets. He's willing to mirror, let you come to him and then deal with his violence. And like I said, he had a great combine. He's got experience on both sides of the line, and as somebody who improved from year to year in college, that makes me very excited given his physical gifts, what he can do at the next level in the NFL. So I think he's one of those first two tackles coming off of the board, and somebody that you're gonna watch him walk on the field. He's gonna be off the bus winner, but he's also gonna be on the field winner.

00:17:05
Speaker 1: It's funny how consensus forms, because before I had on Nate Tice yesterday, I went back and I listened actually to like an early show we did before the Senior bol was a first show I did talking about the draft, and back then Membu was there and he was viewed as like a late first round type of guy. Ooh, could he be the second tackle off the board? And then fast forward six weeks and he's seventh on the consensus board overall, the number one offensive lineman, just barely ahead of Will Campbell, so they're right there. He's second among offensive linemen. On DJ's big board, he's eleventh overall. And so through the process and might just be talking to how NFL teams see them, people have realized, like, oh, this guy is a great prospect. Maybe in previous classes he wouldn't be quite as high because there's been better tackle classes at the very top, but in the end, he's the most athletic guy in this class and so it's kind of like quarterback. Even if he was maybe a prospect in some years that he'd be around twenty eighteen, it's like he's gonna get pushed up because he plays a position. He's also very young. He's twenty one years older. He's just turning twenty one. So as a prospect, he's young. I really think he could go to the Jets at seven because they really need to know his bookends, Like, yeah, they really need to right tackle. It's one of the only like screaming needs on their team. And then suddenly they have a really nice offensive line. You build them like the Lions built their offensive line. Yeah, back when Aaron Glenn was there. All right, let's do one more category. Let's do a shooky hidden gem.

00:18:42
Speaker 2: Okay, So this is a guy who first landed on my radar at the combine because of the way he moved. Like I said, I'm gonna sound like a broken record. Love guys who move well. There are just certain years whether that at the top of the class, so they end up in the second or third round where you just watch them on the field, you're like, that guy's different. Cam Jurgens was one of them. A few years ago, Tristan Wurfs. I like Bartolini, who is, you know, kind of rising up into prominence now as well. Usually they're interior guys that show off a little bit more swiftness. And again we're gonna go with a guard. We're gonna go with Joshua Gray from Oregon State. This is a guy who is so much not on people's radars that, like, if you go quickly YouTube search for a second, like just to find some quick cutups or whatever, his name doesn't pop up. There's nothing out there. But I'm telling you right now that when you dive deeper into it, he just he shows it.

00:19:25
Speaker 3: He shows it on the tape.

00:19:27
Speaker 2: He had his school record fifty six career starts at Oregon State. And the reason I like him is because he's got the athleticism and power, and yet he's malleable. Like you have the baseline athleticism to be able to get out in space and move, you have demonstrated power like Lance's right above him.

00:19:44
Speaker 3: Was tough, strong, reliable.

00:19:46
Speaker 2: Those are all qualities that I want in an offensive lineman, especially in a guard.

00:19:50
Speaker 3: And he's versatile.

00:19:51
Speaker 2: He mostly played tackle in college, but he has the athleticism with rivid gardb where he also ended up playing at Oregon State. So if strength is considered one of his ranks and he can move, I love the projection for you, the upside for you given that you land with the right team that doesn't ask you to do too much.

00:20:07
Speaker 3: So won't be a first round pick, but is going to be.

00:20:10
Speaker 2: A guy that I'm gonna pay a lot of attention to you because I think his upside is very much being slept on right now.

00:20:15
Speaker 1: Consensus board one fifty three, YEP for Joshua Gray. All right, Shook, he's playing his flag. We're gonna We're gonna be tracking now Joshua Gray's career extremely closely, and Shook's name is now going to be attached to it, and I bet he's out. He's gonna outdo his draft profile in terms of one fifty three. Maybe NFL teams will agree with you though, and he'll he'll go hire a couple just interesting names I did want to throw out before we take a break and then talk some over unders. Josh Simmons is an interesting prospect from Ohio State. Twenty fifth on the consensus board, thirty fifth on Jeremiah's board. He tore his ptel attendant. He was the left tackle at Ohio State before that. In Donovan Jackson, I believe actually moved out to left tackle and was okay there. But he's going to be a guard. I might as well mention them together here, since you're an Ohio State guy. He's around thirty eight to thirty nine on the Contenus board. Wouldn't be surprised if a team like the Patriots one of those teams at the top of the second round that needs offensive lineman. He just looks like a good run blocker, he as versatility. He's going to be a guard. Donovan Jackson solid, whereas Simmons might have been a top ten pick in this draft if it wasn't for the injury. There's also some motivation slash, you know, character concerns being whispered about him, which which you never want to hear. But that's it's probably attached to him as much as just about anyone in this class. And so I'm just curious, you're an Ohio State guy. Someone's going to take a chance on him at some point, probably in the first round, maybe even earlier than people think because of the position. But he's got the injury, how do you like equate all that? Where would he be? You think, by the way, if he wasn't hurt.

00:21:52
Speaker 2: He would be where he was prior. And I think that, which is why it's top fifteen. You had him in the top fifteen right on the big boards.

00:22:00
Speaker 1: Right.

00:22:01
Speaker 2: So analyzing this the entire story of the twenty twenty four Ohio State team, a lot of people overlook the changes that they had at offensive line. They had injuries from like the midpoint of the season onward.

00:22:10
Speaker 3: It was on the interior.

00:22:11
Speaker 2: It was a tackle and they just had to shuffle guys around and keep shuffling around. That's why Donovan Jackson actually he improved. His first game in tackle was not good, but by the end of their run, he was playing pretty well because they were just rolling with the punches.

00:22:22
Speaker 3: And I think that so when.

00:22:23
Speaker 2: You when you analyze a guy like Simmons, you have a smaller sample size from the most recent tape and it kind of complicates the picture for you. And you also have to question how does he come back from that injury, because that's no small injury. I think about Senator Charles bentleyh tore both of his teller attendants in the first day of training camp with the Browns that essentially ended his career. So offensive line, the knees are important. That's why they were knee braces. See, there's a little bit of concern there, but overall, I think a lot of the tape doesn't lie. You just have to wonder whether he's going to come back at that same strength, and hopefully, if you're a team taking him, you're not taking him with immediate expectation. You give him a longer runway to kind of acclimate.

00:22:56
Speaker 1: Yeah, and he's he's kind of the ultimate who or bust two just because of the injury and maybe because of the off field stuff, but definitely talented there. I think we hit really the tackles that are probably going in the top fifty. Another couple of interior guys, grays Abels. If people want to go back and listen to the Scout scouting combine one, we did you really liked him there. He's twenty fourth on DJ's big board. Very athletic. Can kind of follow the model of a few good recent centers where he played tackle in college, but I think the league kind of sees him as its center. I love a guy that's that that versatile. So he's another interesting one that might go off in the first round. And he's from North Dakota State. You got to love it.

00:23:39
Speaker 2: The program is important because oftentimes you take your best lineman and put him at left tackle when you're playing, especial at the FCS level. But yeah, I think he projects to be a solid center.

00:23:47
Speaker 1: Yeah, and some good recent rookie centers. Why am I blanking Zach Frasier obviously, and then Graham Barton, who a similar profile guy who played all over the place in college, but then they moved him to center with the Bucks. All right, that's our offensive line preview. We're gonna be going through the positions as we get closer and closer to the draft. I always thank Shook for his expertise there, but I'm not letting him off the hook. He is going to be back after the break. We're just gonna look at over unders for the first time. I guess I have a sickness, and I can't really quench that sickness because I work for the NFL. So what I'm gonna do is just talk about these over unders. I find him interesting. Right after this, back on NFL Daily and yeah, when I said before the break, I had a sickness. What I mean is I find this stuff interesting even though we're not allowed to act on it. I'm thankful for that. It saved me a lot of stress over the years. But when you see the over unders for the year, it's one of my favorite shows we do before every season is we do a draft of what are our favorite over unders and that might be one of my favorite shows of the year because I'm undefeated three years running, and to keep bringing that up, it's the it's maybe the greatest current streak in sports where I haven't had one wrong in three years. And last year it was outrageous because I made a long list and the long list over unders were a maze. We're only picking three or four. I think it's a total of eleven and zero shook, but it's four for I'm eleven. For eleven, I'm eleven.

00:25:16
Speaker 2: No, I'm not saying every what is that ninety six? Over and over and that's like, that's like for.

00:25:23
Speaker 1: Eleven's pretty good. Eleven for eleven is pretty good. So I will say this.

00:25:26
Speaker 2: I gotta say this though, on my other podcast, Gridiron Podcast, which you can find on YouTube dot com slash at Gridiron Pod. We do a division by division season preview during training camp, and we always do over unders as well. And now you're gonna make me go back and tally whether me and my co hosts were correct how close we were on those.

00:25:44
Speaker 1: We might have to do that this year because I like having to take on almost all of them and last year was particularly good. Okay, so they came out. I first heard this on Bill Simmons' podcast. I had no idea that that over unders would come out so early before the draft. It seems crazy. And the reason I and it interesting for myself is not the gambling aspect of it, more just what is consensus going to be heading into this season? We're starting to now I hadn't really thought about it yet, like what are the season previews going to be?

00:26:14
Speaker 2: Like?

00:26:15
Speaker 1: What does Vegas think fans will see as like the the most common wisdom and view of these teams? And so we're gonna do this a few different ways. You have categories. I have one category, and my category is it's going to be things that make me go hum. And the first thing that made me go hum was looking at the AFC East and if you look at the AFC East, the Jets have a projected wind total for a five and a half and the Patriots have a projected win total now of eight and a half. I think that's been bet up. I actually think it was at seven and a half because I listened to Simmons a few weeks ago and it was that set it's up to eight and a half, and that to me is insane. Why are the Pageots three wins better than the Jets? So on, going in both directions, I think that's a little bit crazy that the Patriots would be up at eight and a half, same as the Dolphins, and that the Jets, Like I don't think the Jets roster is that bad. I don't think they got worse at quarterback. And I know they only won five games last year and so that's why it's there. But man, them being three games apart just struck me, as huh, that doesn't really make any sense?

00:27:25
Speaker 2: Yeah, and rightfully, so I started taking notes. In the first all caps note I took was Patriots eight point eight and a half with just question mark, exclamation mark, just a line of them, because it seems insane. And then at that point I realized I needed three categories. I needed gettable, gonna be tough, and on what planet?

00:27:42
Speaker 3: And this lands?

00:27:42
Speaker 2: And on what planet are the Patriots listed at eight and a half games for the over under?

00:27:48
Speaker 3: And it all comes back to what you've been hawking about for.

00:27:50
Speaker 2: Months, Greg, which is quarterback Drake May and the fact that they had an offseason to inject some talent on both sides of the ball, support him better on the offensive line, put some you know pieces around him. He's got Stafon Diggs there now coming back from the ACL and people are setting their expectations high because Mike Rable's got that magic touch. He did it in Tennessee and they think he's gonna do it in New England. But do I buy in instantly?

00:28:13
Speaker 1: No?

00:28:14
Speaker 3: I need that proven to me.

00:28:15
Speaker 2: So again, on what planet are they gonna win over eight and a half games?

00:28:20
Speaker 1: Okay? Schedule is a huge part of it, and we're gonna get deeper into this when we get closer to the season, So I don't want to go too crazy today. These are just first impressions. Schedule is a huge part of it, and they do have the NFC South on the schedule, and so that's going to help out the whole AFCs. The ACAST also has each other. Like the Dolphins and the Jets aren't amazing opponents. It's not the worst division of play agains and then they play the AFC North, which is not as easy. But that just seems weird to me. The Patriots have won eight games combined over the last two years. That's just just a big bump. But uh, you know, what are you thinking? I think Jets over five and a half? That would be like, what are you thinking? For me? I think that get better than that. Along those lines, I'm going to go I'm going to try to guess like who was in your categories and maybe you were thinking it of just like can you get to that win total? Because this is this is more a win total. That seems very low to me. The Vikings eight and a half seems crazy to me. That's so low. Are they really think that the public is going to be that low on the Minnesota Vikings. They got the same over under win total as the Bears, and I don't hate the Bears, but the Bears are at eight and a half, They're suddenly the same as the Vikings. I don't care.

00:29:30
Speaker 2: I'd like to introduce you to remember number two of on what Planet the Vikings at eight and a half. This is a big projection on the quarterback play not being there. And look, I understand there was some fraudulents with this Vikings team a few years ago when they ended up losing to Daniel Jones in the playoffs, and then you know they tail spin at the end of last year, but that was a product of playing a good defense and a defensive Sam Darnold couldn't you know, you know, sort out. And yeah, it is a big swing to just think that a team's gonna win nine or ten games with a second year quarterback who's essentially a rookie and JJ McCarthy. But at the same time, this team got better in the offseason. They won a ton of games last year before they got these additions. On what planet do they not win nine games this year? I'm sorry, I just have a hard time believing.

00:30:13
Speaker 1: That these two teams were nine games apart. Last year. The Vikings won fourteen, the Bears won five. Now, the schedule for the NFC North is very difficult for everyone because they're playing against each other, and the out of division schedule is difficult so that's that's going to depress all the numbers. But man, I'm not ready. I don't want to be making predictions that this is not what this show is about. It's just numbers that really stuck out to me, because ultimately, I don't think the quarterback play for the Vikings is going to be that high of a bar overall to reach the in the ecosystem that they have and the rest of the team is really really good. All right, give me on what planet? Give me another one of your on what planets?

00:30:59
Speaker 2: Last of three on what Planet members is the Niners at ten and a half. And yes, look, I understand they were beaten up by injuries severely last year. They've also had an off season in which you don't feel better about the state of the roster than you did a year prior. It's a bit of a transition time for them. They also have the brock Party contract thing going on, you know, swirling around them, and for a bit there we had the Brandon Ayuk thing. So like, there's some uncertainty with this club right now just overall to project them at such a high line, I mean ten and a half's pretty high. It's one of the higher ones that you're going to see from any team in the NFL. I understand that they have continuity, and they've done it before, and they tend to be like a rollercoaster from year to year, especially when injuries get involved. But that's just a really high bar to set for a team that fell short of expectations, obviously with the injuries being a big part, and then coming back from an off season in which you know they had some pieces leave.

00:31:49
Speaker 1: Yeah, I think the ten and a half is a little crazy, but it's even more crazy that the Rams don't have it. So for some context, the NFC West plays both South divisions. They drew the best draw of any division in the NFL this year, so they get the NFC South and the AFC South. I think that's the ideal out of division schedule, so that helps push up all these teams, And in fact, the entire NFC West is eight and a half or over. The Cardinals and the Seahawks are both at eight and a half and the Rams are at nine and a half. If you had just knocked the forty nine ers down one or flipped them in the Rams, then then I get it. There's kind of a begging here of Vegas almost to pick against the forty nine ers, when I'm sure the systems like that. Cynthia has look at the talent on the team, look at the previous success, and project that out forward that actually they're not going to collapse as much as teams think, and I can understand that. It just is really weird to me that they would be behind the Rams. And yeah, not every team is going to be over five hundred in the division, So either the Seahawks or the car are going to be coming up short, or maybe the Rams and or the forty nine ers as well. Okay, so those were your crazy ones. Those were the ones to me that also stood out the most. Basically the Jets, the Vikings, and then the Rams forty nine ers split just other ones I just found interesting. The Bucks are at nine and a half. I like the Bucks. They have the AFC East and the NFC West out of division, which is not the toughest slate I don't think, and they have, you know, of course, six games in the division. They're favored to win the division by two games. The Falcons are next at seven and a half, Carolina six and a half, Saints at six and a half. That's when I can give a preview. I'm definitely gonna be over on the Bucks.

00:33:43
Speaker 2: Now.

00:33:43
Speaker 1: Is that going to be one of my top three or four in the NFL? I don't really know, but with that schedule and that division, to me, that's just one that I look at right away.

00:33:55
Speaker 2: I actually felt like that was probably a game too high. And the reason is not that I don't have confidence in this team, because I do. We've seen that they became an offensive team last year. Baker Mayfield played his best football his career in the last two years with them. They have two talented receivers, and Mike Evans and Chris Godwin and Jayleen McMillan really stepped up in Godwin's absence last year, and Bucky Irving had a great rookie year. But if you look at them over the last three years, they've won ten games, nine games and eight games, right, Yeah, that's my division each of those three years. But none of them were easy and oftentimes they were the best team in that division, and yet it was still difficult. So setting it that high, I'd feel more comfortable in terms of like realistic expectation at eight and a half than nine and a half, which is why I just kind of raised an eyebrow at that one.

00:34:39
Speaker 1: Yeah, that one is That's why I wasn't in my top section. The top section are ones where the number itself seems crazy to me. This number doesn't seem crazy, but I'm high on the Bucks as a team that I believes is now at a certain point in their cycle of team building, that they're ready to go, and that they're going to be a really good team this year. Other ones that stuck out to me the Steelers eight and a half, which is like the classic we don't know what to do with this team number, which is eight and a half. The Chargers still, you know, get in a lot of love, along with the Broncos at nine and a half, both of those teams, and then overall no teams are above eleven and a half, which is interesting. Usually there's two three four teams at twelve and a half, So that's a little crazy, and it's partly because a the good teams all play each other because of the first place schedules, and that even can affect that extra game, that seventeenth game, and then b like the divisional schedules this year, I think the better teams are all with tough in division games and out of division games, they're just happen to be playing each other. But of all those teams that aren't going above eleven and a half, to me, the Chiefs not getting more than eleven and a half is the is the craziest because they're the team of them that out of division they have the AFC South in the NFC East that's not too tough, and then in the division you know it's a good division, but you still have the Raiders there. It's not like the best division in the world. Out of division, it's it's a pretty nice schedule. So the Chiefs always always disrespected at eleven and a half. I if you you bet the over for them every year, you'd be a rich man.

00:36:09
Speaker 2: Yeah, this is a franchisees fan base doesn't need any more reason to think that they they're being disrespected. Let's put that out there first and foremost. But I also understand why it's eleven and a half. I would understand if it was twelve and a half given their history of success, great success like historic would have been if they'd won the Super Bowl, and it still is historic. I think this speaks to the fact that we are before the draft and that there are still some concerns. You know, at least what they've done on offensive line, and it makes sense to me that they would drop down a game from where you might feel more pleased with it. But yeah, sure, a little bit of disrespect. We still have the whole draft to go through.

00:36:42
Speaker 1: I get it. Just here are the win totals since twenty eighteen, twelve, twelve, fourteen, twelve, fourteen, eleven and fifteen, and even the eleven got there over that year. I remember it was ten and a half because.

00:36:55
Speaker 3: I it's sportant, though twelve is sportant, right.

00:36:58
Speaker 1: But again, Chiefs, they're not You're not being disrespected because you literally are tied for the best record in the NFL according to everybody speakers right now. Bill's are only out eleven and a half. The Eagles were only at eleven and a half, the Lions were only at ten and a half. That's an interesting one to me. I think I would I would lean towards the over with the Lions, but it is a very difficult schedule. It's early. I just just some first thoughts. I got more in this space to come you got one more.

00:37:25
Speaker 2: One more in the gonna be tough category. Bears eight and a half, just because it's projection Ben Johnson high hopes for him, high hopes for what the Bears can be. They got their quarterback, everything's cool. It's a lot of projection to expect them to win nine or more games off the bat without.

00:37:43
Speaker 3: Again, I'm a cynic. I'm a skeptic. Tough schedule too, Yeah, prove it to me in a tough division. But eight and a half, I thought that was a little high.

00:37:51
Speaker 1: I agree with you. I've gone under on the Bears three straight years as one of my top three to four picks, and every time it's it's been right there. I don't think I will just because I want. I do want to believe in a world where Kleb and Ben Johnson just make beautiful music together and I see the vision. I get it. I do think they'll be better. The schedule is going to be very tough, though, so I do think it's going to be. It's gonna be a challenge in that division, never a challenge when we have you should appreciate you man offensive line, like some people would look at that as like I'm giving you, you know, the the dregs of the draft prospects, but that you look at it like this is this is the beautiful time you ever see.

00:38:29
Speaker 2: Me on that last daily combine. Folks, It's been a grind of a week and I couldn't be happier and more e stacked and walked than to walk into Lucas Oil Stadium on that day specifically and sit there for seven hours watching big guys in tights run around.

00:38:41
Speaker 1: I'm looking forward to that. I already am now. I'm looking forward to the annual show that we will do with Nick Chuk after the combine. It was fun this year hearing your all combined team. That's it for today. Hit the music there, Eric. We will be back in this feed on Thursday. You know you love him, Dan, Jeremiah forties and free agents will be talking more big picture draft. I'm excited about this one. And yeah, like when we're going deep on Tyler Booker and Gray Zabel and Josh Connery, you know football is back.