Baseball America's top 10 Phillies prospects

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Speaker 1: Hi, this is Chase that Lee.

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Speaker 2: This is the Phillies Show, Ruben Tomorrow, Junior, Jim Salisbury, Todd z Aleuki.

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Speaker 3: It's the Philly Show.

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Speaker 2: It's Friday, November seventh, twenty twenty five. Hope everybody is doing well.

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Speaker 3: Guys.

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Speaker 2: We spent Monday talking about phill free agents the Phillies could go after. We spent Wednesday talking about trade candidates the Phillies could go after. And then today we talked with Josh Norris from Baseball America about the Phillies farm system and I want to get your thoughts real quick on it. It's time for the park's first pitch. This pitch is brought to us exclusively by our partners at Park Casino, Pennsylvania's number one casinos. So gotta have talent in the system if you want to make some trades. Guys, would you think of what stood out before we jump into Josh. What jumped out at you about our conversation with Josh.

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Speaker 4: Well, a little surprising, little wrinkle at the top of his list. I always look forward to the Baseball America Top ten list. It's like it's not quite Christmas morning, but it's close. So it was really a fascinating conversation. Josh Norris's knowledge of that system and their prospects and is encyclopedic, a lot of great details, a lot of great opinion.

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Speaker 5: It's a it's a fascinating interview.

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Speaker 4: And so that's everything that that jumped out, you know, a little wrinkle, like I said at the top, but very enjoyable conversation.

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Speaker 6: That that was my big takeaway, and not a ton of super surprises. But you know, it was pretty obvious that there's some talent at the top of that list, there's no question about that. Maybe a drop off later on in that in the back end of that list, but interesting stuff and guys that can contribute at the major league level they're close. So that's, you know, one of the more interesting things as the Phillies try to navigate what they're gonna do moving forward twenty twenty six and beyond.

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Speaker 5: Todd, what was your takeaway? It was a great guy.

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Speaker 2: He was very candid on on some guys that are at the top of that system. They're there there their pluses and their minuses, which is always interesting because nobody has a finished product necessarily, But that was that was to me interesting. He was very candid in his assessments of some of these guys and why they were ranked where they were ranked. So, yes, service, I enjoy.

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Speaker 2: Josh Norris, thanks so much for joining the Philly Show, I should say Josh Norris from Baseball America, thank you so much for the Philly Show.

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Speaker 3: How are you, sir?

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Speaker 1: I'm doing well on this fine Thursday morning.

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Speaker 5: Yes, so uh.

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Speaker 2: We're kind of previewing the off season. Monday, on our show we talked a lot about free agents to Phillies could or should pursue. Wednesday we spend time talking about trade possibilities for the Phillies, and of course, if you're going to make a trade, you need some talent to trade. And so we wanted to have you on this show, which is going to run on Friday, and it's perfect timing because Baseball America on Friday morning is releasing its top ten Phillies Prospects list. So let's talk Phillies prospects. I mean, I don't know where you want to start. Do you want to start number one?

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Speaker 5: Do you want to how about this?

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Speaker 2: Let's over what's your overall feeling of this Phillies farm system as it relates to other farm systems in Major League Baseball? The big picture view of you know, guys, they could trade, guys that could help next season, et cetera.

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Speaker 7: Well compared to the rest of the seams in baseball, I think it's it's got some really exciting stuff up top. And you know, Aiden Miller, we put him at number one, and frankly, going into the process, I didn't think that was going to be the case. But when you talk to scouts outside of the organization and the value waiters inside of the organization, they said, you know what, we might have Miller by a little bit over Painter. After Painter kind of backslid, I don't want to say backslid, but was okay this year. It certainly wasn't a bad year, but it was a It was a great year for a guy who just coming off Tommy John surgery and only really had the Fall League over the last couple of years, and you know, I'm Andrew Painter's number one fan outside of the Painter household. I don't know if you saw, but I put it all out there last year and said, the young man is going to be a Hall of Famer based on what I've seen. So I need him to be real good coming year. But you know, Aiden Miller, he's I was really looking forward to seeing him in the Fall League. Unfortunately he got pulled right before. But from what I can tell, you know, coming into his pro career, there were a lot of questions about whether he can stick it shortstop. Right now, the only question about whether he can stick it shortstop is Trey Turner. Other than that, he's a shortstop. He's got he's become more athletic, more explosive, his arm has gotten better, and you know, again in and out of the organization, people say, yeah, this is probably a really good, you know, above average major league shortstop right now. And you know, the bat wasn't where you wanted it to be the first couple of months of the year, especially.

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Speaker 1: You know, I kind of expect him.

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Speaker 7: To explode because I think everybody on this call knows that Redding is a pretty good place to hit, but it didn't work out that way. They were feeding him breaking balls and it took him a while to adjust. And once he did and learn how to pick and choose the correct breaking balls and get to the fastball, he found stuff he could hammer, and he did, and then he got to triple A and was pretty good there, and everybody said, this is probably a guy who's a really well rounded player on both sides of the ball, who could be an impact guy at the top of a lineup. So when you talk about guys who you could trade, I mean, those are gonna be your two biggest trade chips. Whether you want to deal them or not, whether you know you have the stomach to do it, I don't know. It depends on what's on the table. I don't believe in no trade anybody being untradeable. It just depends on what's coming back. And you know, Dave Dombrowski in his history has done a really good job of identifying the guys they can trade. We'll go back to when he's with the Red Sox. He traded everybody except for Ralfhael Devers and that turned out to be a pretty smart move. So I would trust dave On and and the rest of the talented evaluators in the Philly system to scout their own system and figure out the guys that they should or should not move.

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Speaker 5: So so interesting you must have.

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Speaker 4: If you've got Andrew Painter going to the Hall of Fame, you must have really tossed and turned about having, you know, a guy above him on the on the rankings. Can you just give our listeners a just a little snapshot of how you put together this top ten list?

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Speaker 5: And I want, I want you to go through the top ten.

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Speaker 4: At one point, but sure, I mean, how many people do you talk to? How many players do you see? Just give us just a little snippet about the work that goes into this, uh you know, constructing this list.

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Speaker 7: Well, I mean to put it this way. I've got eighteen pages of notes on the Phillies system and it might be inflat you know, one year I had twelve reports on one guy, which was probably overkilled.

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Speaker 1: But I had it.

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Speaker 7: You know, you talk to as many people in the organization as we'll talk to you. Some organizations are more welcoming than others. But real inside baseball here, you know, I'm My background before Baseball America is I covered the Double A Yankees team in Trenton, New Jersey for six years, and I covered Luke Merton when he was a player, you know, So not only do I feel old, but I feel connected to that guy at war Gonzalez their minor league hitting coordinator or they're minually getting coordinators. I talked to him when he was a player. I remember him hitting home runs in Trenton. So I've got a little bit of a base of knowledge with some of these guys. And I'm sure you guys all know Preston Mattingly is easy to talk to. But I've also been doing this in some form of fashion for close to twenty years now, and I've met a lot of scouts. I think I have at least one scout outside an organization outside the Phillies organization in all thirty clubs.

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Speaker 1: So I know these people.

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Speaker 7: I don't see them as much as I used to in person, just because I'm in Raleigh, North Carolina, and you know, if Jersey Shore comes down here, cool, but I will see you know. I did see the FCL a little bit this year, and I probably saw one or two guys if there's the Dominican.

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Speaker 1: But that was about it. So a lot of our guys do it differently.

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Speaker 7: You know. Some people do it a lot based in their own opinion. And like I said, you know, when I saw a painter and kind of formed that opinion on him. It was his last start in high A in whatever the year that was, twenty twenty two, and Fellas, I've seen a ton of pitching prospects in my life, I've seen just about all of them.

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Speaker 1: He was up there.

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Speaker 7: I remember leaving the park that day thinking I've only felt this way three times, so this is pretty amazing. Who were the other two, Jose Fernandez and Steven Strasburg.

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Speaker 1: They were okay, they were okay.

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Speaker 6: Hey, I wanted to get to you a little bit about and I have a little bit deeper in on Aiden Miller, if I may.

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Speaker 3: You know, I know he put up a ton of numbers. As far as stealing bases. Is he a base stealer? Is he a burner?

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Speaker 5: Is it instinct?

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Speaker 8: Is it speed?

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Speaker 6: What do you think and what are they thinking about what he could be as far as a base stealer, I know he runs well, but I'm kind of curious about whether that's going to be a real weapon for him at the major league level.

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Speaker 7: That's an interesting question and one that comes up a lot in a couple of systems. You know, he stole what was it, sixty bags or something like that this year. He's not you know, he's not an eighty runner. We've got him down as a fifty, which is a little bit of a future grade. But you know, he's at least above average right now. But you're right, it is a lot of this instincts and the new rules in the minor leagues and the major league designed to encourage base stealing. They're working and the bases are a little bit bigger. They can they know how many moves a guy has left, and some guys have really good instincts. I'll give you another kind of example.

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Speaker 1: In another system. I do the Dodgers.

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Speaker 7: They've got a gay named post Wade to Paula, who we have as a thirty runner. He stole like thirty five forty bags this year. Because if you're smart enough, you can do it. And that's kind of another thing that kind of sets this guy's skill level above other other players is he's got the instincts and the smarts to maybe overcome the an average run tool. You can get the correct leads. We saw, we saw them. What that meant in the World Series. You can you know, steal more bags than maybe your pure speed would allow. So I guess that's my way of answering your question. He's not a burner. He's not gonna be, you know, prime trade turner in that regard, but he'll take his share of bags.

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Speaker 2: So, Josh, let's I'm kind of dying now to know the top ten?

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Speaker 1: All right, all right, all right, well you got let's let's recap.

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Speaker 2: You've giving us the first two, you get eight and Miller number one, Andrew Painter number.

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Speaker 7: Two, yep, Justin Crawford at three, Okay, a Rune Escobar at four, Gauge Wood at five, Okay, Dante Nori at six, Gabriel Rinconees at seven, New draft, Matthew Fisher at eight, interesting moyses Chasse at nine, and Kate Obermuller at ten.

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Speaker 5: Okay, all right, Well, a lot of a lot of names.

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Speaker 4: I'd love to ask you something about every one of them, but uh.

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Speaker 5: I'm gonna.

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Speaker 6: I'm gonna hit you with the rinconas one because he's the closest guy to a possibility of being another piece. I know he's left handed. I know he's a left handed hitter. Where what strides did he make last year as he you know, worked through the system in Triple A? And where does he rejected for for you and for others?

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Speaker 3: As far as what kind of player he can become?

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Speaker 7: You know, I think part of it, part of last year was staying, you know, a little healthier than.

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Speaker 1: He has been.

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Speaker 7: You know, I've seen him the most unfrankly, it was in the Fall League and the GCL, which is not where you want to see a player of his caliber.

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Speaker 1: Fall league aside.

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Speaker 7: But in all honesty, this is a pick because of his proximity. After five, it's really tricky in the system, and if you other sites are going to release their lists and they may have five other guys, it's a little bit jumbled after those those first big five. But I think if you see any other lists without those five guys in those five spots, unless they trade them before, then I'd be very surprised. But Ranconez is probably a platoon outfielder. He absolutely mashes against right handers and does the exact opposite against left but he is He's got a weapon for an arm in the outfield and the power is real. So he's probably your your strong side platoon guy, which isn't the sexiest thing in the world, but they do cost money at the trade deadline. You know, if you if you want to get a guy who can match right handers, you might have to deal with them. You have to deal with them sometimes at the trade deadline, So that's out there. Yeah, that's kind of what we see him as. Like I said, not the sexiest thick profile in the world, but a major leaguer probably.

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Speaker 2: Yeah, I'm glad you asked about him, because Dave Dombrowski did mention him specifically as a guy that could contribute this season. And and when you've talked to people inside the Phillies and outside the Phillies, have they mentioned the fact or given any opinion on if at some point they think he could get better against left handed pitching, Because I mean, just looking at his splits last season, they were it was about as wide of a split as I've ever seen on any player. I think he's got like an high nine hundred OPS against righty's and like a three hundred ops against lefties. He didn't have a single extra base hit against a left handed pitcher this this past season. So get any vibes or any any word from anybody on his ability to hit lefties.

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Speaker 7: Well, they're not gonna come out and say no, obviously to me that I mean what we say is nobody gets quoted or anything. I'm not sure there's nothing in there saying who talked to me. But they're also not going to down their own guide to me unless they really are down on him. So that's a long way of saying they didn't tell me one way or the other. But I'll say this We're in an era of training where you know you can go back to you know, your your home base in the off season and hit off the traject machine or hit off specially designed pitching machines and figure this out. A Look, we've got more tools at our disposal than ever to get better in certain skills, and I wouldn't be surprised if there's if he makes incremental improvements. Like I mentioned, he's been injured a lot. That's a lot of at bats missed, and when he goes, you know, down to those areas to rehab, he's not facing against Triple A caliber pitchers. I mean facing against guys who might be out of baseball in you know, a year or two years time. So it's not the most fair competition.

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Speaker 1: In the in the world.

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Speaker 7: So part of this is he's just at a a bat deficit in terms of his pro experience, and there's always room to improve.

00:17:31
Speaker 1: I suppose.

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Speaker 6: If I may slide into another name that frankly I have a little bit of connection with just because my brother actually represented represents him, it's a run Escobar. I know, a run has sort of started to climb up the ranks and become a little bit more famous, so to speak, because of his bat. Is he defensively strong enough to play and stay in the middle infield that second base in particular, is he a third baseman? Where are they projecting him and how do they project him.

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Speaker 3: As a hitter?

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Speaker 7: The bat's going to be the key, is a nice way of saying this. You know, he's he's got bat to all ability. The power shows up there. He needs to get a little stronger so he can withstand the rigors of a full season. As you might have seen tailed off a little bit towards the end of his time during in clear Water, and I saw him and it, you know, three days of a lot of nothing quite frankly, but three days is just three days.

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Speaker 1: As I'm sure you all well know.

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Speaker 7: You can see the best three days of a guy's career, you can see the worst three days. He's got bat to ball skills and power. It's in there. It's going to be a little bit of a longer burn. I think defensively, a lot's going to be contingent on the way he keeps up his body like it's not you know, the maxim goes, you know, we're not selling jeans here. He's not selling jeans. He's you know, it's been comped as like a Jose Ramirez type body, which works. If you're Jose Ramirez, you got to make it work. One of the you know, I'll go back to a coach I talked to in Loway a bunch of years ago about about Alejandro Kirk, who is famously not a small gentleman. You know, they said, it's it's one thing to be fat, it's another to get fat. If you've been that way, you know, rounder your whole life, it's easier.

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Speaker 1: To maneuver in that body.

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Speaker 7: You can have guys who don't look like you know, GQ models who are good athletes. But if you're steadily getting bigger and you don't know how to navigate and that, it's the same as if he got suddenly taller, he'd be a little you know, wonky in that body. So that's a lot of what he's able to do is going to be based on how well he's able to maintain his frame. Right now, you're probably talking about a fringe Let's see what I put down. I would say fringe average defender. I've got a the little lower than that forty defender with a fifty arm, So he's not going to win any gold Gloves. But if he stays in good enough shape, he can hold down second base. Third base would put a little more pressure on the back too, especially in the power department. So he's got a well rounded set of skills, I think. But you know, maybe there's no one real standout tool in my mind.

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Speaker 3: So I'm not trying to get this guy traded.

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Speaker 6: But would he be somebody that you think Dave Dombrowski would consider moving.

00:20:29
Speaker 3: If someone's out there thinking, hey.

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Speaker 6: This guy's got real upside with that bat, I'm buying the bat. Maybe I can get a really strong piece for this if he's moved.

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Speaker 7: Yeah, I would be stunned if he's not on you know, depending on what you're trading for, I would certainly be willing to include him in a deal. Like we just talked about Aiden Miller being able to play shortstop. Well, trade Turner's there for a long time, So maybe he moves over to second, Maybe he moves over to third. And then if you got shortstop and Miller at second, where's the room for Escobar? Like this might be a case where you and you've got other middle endfielders coming behind him, and I'm sure you will acquire other middle dfielders. This might be a guy where there's just no room at the end, but he is still attractive in a trade deal. And I'm like I said, I'm sure Dave and the rest of the front office will be active once they are allowed to be active here here a few days, a couple of months. So yeah, if you told me he was the headliner in a smaller deal or a second piece in a really big deal, I would buy.

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Speaker 4: That, Josh, if I could just ask about there's three pictures on this list, all a little bit different. So gage Wood, I mean, you know college picture, big power, signature moment in college World series, Fisher a high school kid. Sure he's got a lot of upside and Chas say who they got into trade? And then you know, I remember seeing him in Spring Train, looked out of shape. I guess, Mike, give us a little bit on each guy if you could, and and in particular on Chasse, why is he on this list?

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Speaker 5: I understand why the other two guys are there. And if you could go over that a little.

00:22:13
Speaker 7: Bit, sure, we'll start with would the I will friendly describe him as a psychopath when it terms in terms of wanting to pitch, you know, in a good way.

00:22:26
Speaker 1: You know, Max Scherzer is a psychopath in a good way.

00:22:31
Speaker 7: He As a matter of fact, I believe I heard that the reason he debuted as a pro instead of just shutting it down was because he would not stop asking to debut, and to the point where they said, fine, go do your thing.

00:22:48
Speaker 5: So he did.

00:22:49
Speaker 7: It's kind of like you know when your kids say, can we go?

00:22:51
Speaker 1: Can we go?

00:22:51
Speaker 4: Go again?

00:22:52
Speaker 3: You fine?

00:22:53
Speaker 1: So they let him out there. That's kind of the guy you're dealing with. On him out right.

00:22:56
Speaker 7: Now you're talking about two bangers in his arsenal seventy grade fastball, sixty grade slider, fantastic. At the very least, you've got a reliever. Then you've got an average curveball, fringe, average, changeup, average, control all that. If one of those two other pitches takes a step or two forward, well now you really got something. And if that control, I mean, the control as average is fine enough. So it's gonna be about bringing one of those two pitches forward and then maybe getting him to work spread out, spread out his work.

00:23:31
Speaker 1: A little bit more.

00:23:32
Speaker 7: You know, don't put one hundred percent into every pitch because that although we do train that way these days, you don't want it necessarily if you want to be a guy like a Justin Verlander. I'm not gonna comp those two guys. I'm just saying, as a workhorse, you've got to be able to ration your energy throughout five, six, seven innings. You know, it's not that it's not as simple as throwing one hundred miles an hour every pitch. That's just not generally gonna work unless you're a mutant. Matthew Fisher high upside guy.

00:24:01
Speaker 1: We had him at number eight. He went to fun Nugget.

00:24:05
Speaker 7: He went to Evansville High School, which is where Don Mattingly went and his son notably is the Phillies GM. It's obviously a little insider trading right there. He's got a nice little mix of high upside physicality. Six three two hundred, which is pretty much how you want to draw up for a pitcher these days or any day. Frankly, above average fastball, six plus slider with a fringe change and a fifty curve ball again, same idea. You've got the frame to take some more weight and add some more strength. You can bring some more stuff to bring one of those two other pitches forward. You've already got two ready made weapons. If you can get you know, enough control command, you've got the makings of a power pitcher and a guy who can shoot up the rankings in time. You know, right now you're dealing with a guy who obviously didn't pitch this year in pro ball. So when I talk, you talk to the scouting director and you go with what our great draft guy, Carlos Colaso, has you know, gotten on these guys a lot of it's just like, Okay, I'm gonna rewrite what you said and talk to the skuying director.

00:25:07
Speaker 1: It's all you can do. Watch a little bit of video, but that's about it.

00:25:11
Speaker 7: And then Chas say, I'm giving him a pass, like that's really all this is. I understand he came into out of shape, there's no question about that, and his stuff suffered as a result. But when it was we all know that Tommy John surgery is not a death.

00:25:25
Speaker 3: Now.

00:25:25
Speaker 7: People come back from that all the time, and sometimes they come back fully formed, sometimes they come back a little bit better for a while, sometimes they don't. It happens. But when he's right, it's really good stuff. I mean, we're talking back here the same grades as last year because I don't know what else I could do with not much of a season. When he's at his best, he's got the potential for two plus pitches. The fastball for its velocity and the way it plays through the zone. Sliders are pretty nasty little pitch itself. You got two breaking balls in that way. He's got the traditional gyro slider and a sweeper. Gives some two different looks to help him handle hitters at both sides. He's got an average change up, so he's got a full starters compliment. He needs to polish up some of the finer points of pitching, like they talked last year about. He needs to get ahead more often and stop working from behind and then getting himself back into counts and then being less pitch efficient. If he doesn't do that well, he's probably a reliever. So, as I mentioned earlier, this is not the deepest system in the world right now, so I kind of gave him a little bit of a pass.

00:26:32
Speaker 2: That's great stuff, man, Yeah, Josh, you know it's funny when the Phillies drafted Gauge, would this summer immediately X blew up, social media blew up and goes He's going to be in the bullpen by the end of the season. And then you know how baseball is. They everybody watches Trey you Savage pitch in the postseason, like you know, how quickly can gauge would get to the big leagues? Could he be helping the Phillies next season? And I'm wondering, in any of your conversations with anybody, do they feel that that's a realistic jump for him?

00:27:03
Speaker 5: I mean.

00:27:05
Speaker 2: Vast rise er possibly, would you be surprised if he was in the big league's pitching next season in some way, shape or form.

00:27:11
Speaker 7: Not really, but if you want to, I mean trecet I used the term earlier. Trey You Savage is a mutant because he got there solely as a starter, and I get there was a couple of relief appearances down the stretch, but that doesn't happen where you get a guy probably shouldn't have started in low way with his pedigree, but he did anyway, moving all four levels and then getting there that's unheard of. But this guy, if he figures out his target areas, could he get there as a starter. I don't know, but if he's in there is a reliever toward the end. I assume the Phillies will be in the postseason again because they're just the kind of team that they don't reboot, they reload, so they will probably be there in some form of fashion. If you tell me if he's got some bullets left in the tank by the end of the season, if he is in the in the big league bullpen, I wouldn't be surprised.

00:28:03
Speaker 1: He's got that kind of stuff.

00:28:04
Speaker 7: You saw what he did in the College World Series and you saw he's got that here it is hit it.

00:28:10
Speaker 1: I dare you attitude.

00:28:11
Speaker 7: About him that you do need in the late innings so we'll see great stuff.

00:28:18
Speaker 5: How about this?

00:28:21
Speaker 4: Just a ton of names I want to ask you about on the list, But I didn't see Keaton Anthony. He looks like he's got a pretty good bat. I know he might be a little older. Did you consider him? What's your kind of report and your your your take on Keaton Anthony.

00:28:34
Speaker 7: You know he's he's okay, He's he's a first base only guy, and for that reason, I think he needs to mash a little more than he does.

00:28:45
Speaker 1: And yes he is a little bit older.

00:28:47
Speaker 7: Internally, they were not as high on him as you might think based on the numbers. So I'm kind of lookewarm on him, but I get the attraction based on what he's done, and maybe maybe he's auto Camp two point zero, a guy who just hits and hits and hits and you know, kind of proves it wrong to all the people like me in my industry and said, hey, I'm a big leaguer. I'm one of twelve thousand people who did that.

00:29:10
Speaker 1: So we'll see. But no, he wasn't really in consideration for the ten.

00:29:14
Speaker 2: Okay, Well, one of the other guys that Dave Dombrowsk you mentioned, and it's not a surprise last month when he kind of talked about next season besides Payin or besides rinconas of course, is Justin Crawford, who you have third on your list. What do you make of I mean, what's your opinion on him? Is he we keep hearing that he's a better left fielder than a centerfielder, probably needs some work in center field.

00:29:38
Speaker 3: What do you make of Justin Crawford.

00:29:40
Speaker 2: And his ability if he makes the team coming out of spring training to kind of produce in you know, for their Phillies.

00:29:48
Speaker 7: I believe that there's a couple of ways to look at this. Obviously, he hit like three point thirty in trile A. Those are pretty good numbers. On the other hand, they didn't bring him up last year when they had spots they could have be used. An outfielder kind of tells you what they think, doesn't it. I mean that, I'm a big believer in teams will tell you what they think of guys without telling you. And I deal with some other guys in my other systems too. I think there's more there than he more there that he needs to work on. Also, you know, we talked, let's talk about the center field defense. From a scouting standpoint, it's better, it's it's okay, it's maybe average. From an analytical standpoint, it's about as bad as you can get. And I mean I'm talking. Teams told me they had him analytically in the third percentile of minor league center fielders.

00:30:38
Speaker 1: Wow.

00:30:39
Speaker 7: That's but here's where you can't just take numbers out of a vacuum. The Phillies tell me that they would play him more shallow in center field than you might normally so he could learn to better go back on balls. Well if he doesn't get to them, those are balls that probably the computers should be easily catchable that he doesn't because you've put him at a disadvantage. So I can understand where the humans and the computers have a divide. So he's probably not the third percentile of minor league standerfields that's insane. But he's also not you know, Kevin Kiermeyer or anything out there. He's probably a left fielder and he probably is a pretty good. One question then becomes does he have the power to profile at that position? And he has the raw juice, but he cannot get the ball off the ground. And I brought up k Kevin Kiermeyer for a reason because the ground ball rates that Crawford runs in the last I want to say, fifteen years, there's been one big leaguer of note who's made it a decent career running those kind of ground ball rates in the minor leagues, and that's Kevin Kiermeyer. And the reason he was able to do that is because he was a sublime defensive center fielder. There it's in there. He hits the ball as hard as a lot of prospects. The problem is, if you put it in the dirt, it's not gonna matter. And I get he's hitting three thirty in TRIPA, A big league. Infielders are better, they're gonna turn more of those balls into outs. The advanced scouting reports are gonna be better. I mean, how many times do we see a guy scorch a ground ball and a dude, he's right there, even though you know we don't. We can't super shift anymore, they have it. Okay, I'm gonna throw a change up here. This guy's swing plane looks like this. He's gonna if everything is executed properly, he's gonna bash it right to this blade of grass. And I think that's gonna be a big problem for Justin Crawford. So the song has been the same for the last two or three years.

00:32:37
Speaker 1: If he gets the ball off the.

00:32:38
Speaker 7: Ground, not necessarily, but he can hit home runs, but on that middle plane where it's over the infielders heads on the dirt and he can run, then you've got something really special.

00:32:47
Speaker 1: You've probably got his dad, quite frankly.

00:32:49
Speaker 7: But there are issues to work on, and there have been issues to work on, and there continue to be issues to work on it. So I ranked him third on that potential, knowing full well that there's stuff to do.

00:33:04
Speaker 3: God good step.

00:33:06
Speaker 4: Yeah, well he might be. He might be left field in April up here, he could very well be. How do you think he'll fare coming up?

00:33:13
Speaker 3: Uh?

00:33:14
Speaker 4: You know that's that's a young man in left field with I mean you've painted a picture of a player with some warts.

00:33:20
Speaker 6: Honestly, Yeah, gonna be hitting the ninth hole too. I mean, it's not like he's going to be super pressured. I would think that they, you know, team him up back to back with turners.

00:33:30
Speaker 7: If you want to hit a guy in the nine hole, then the profile power that you know you normally associate with left fielders maybe goes out the window a little bit. But again, and it's nice if he if he does figure it out, then you've got a real weapon and you probably start hitting much higher.

00:33:46
Speaker 1: But again, i'd be very curious to see how that extreme ground ball profile hand turns out in the big leagues.

00:33:54
Speaker 7: I mean, again, we've talked about you know, there's there's labs for hitting, there's labs for pitching. There's not labs for defense. But the defenders he's gonna see in the NL East and you know the rest of the league, they're pretty damn good, So I'll be interesting to see. I mean, I doubt he's gonna hit three thirty in the big leagues, but I also doubt he's gonna hit two thirty.

00:34:16
Speaker 5: Right.

00:34:17
Speaker 2: The last guy we we haven't yeah, we haven't gotten into on your top ten list was Dante Nori, and we had him on our show just a couple of weeks ago.

00:34:24
Speaker 3: Great kid.

00:34:26
Speaker 2: You know, gets on base, you know it, hits the ball all fields, you know, plays center field. What do you What do you like about him and his potential?

00:34:37
Speaker 7: He's he's kind of that that that cliche term. He's that gamer guy. He's gonna do a lot of things, right. He might not do a lot of things exceptionally. He's not gonna be a big time powerhead because the way his swing mechanics work, there's very little load in his swing.

00:34:52
Speaker 1: He's kind of a slap and dash sort of guy, which is fine. You need those.

00:34:55
Speaker 7: He can't all be sluggers, and when you try to get all sluggers, it doesn't work out.

00:34:59
Speaker 1: Sometimes.

00:35:00
Speaker 7: Not all guys were born to be sluggers. But he can hit a little bit. There's almost no power in the tank. He's an above average runner plus defender with a fringe average arms. That's probably a left fielder, but he chanced centerfield. But if he has to move over to left field, like I just talked about with Crawford, that's a problem because there is much less power potential than Crawford. Like, this is a guy who unless there's also no projection remaining or very little projection remaining, what he's got is his body. And it's not like he's gonna come into twenty five home run juice anytimes, suit, I don't think. And if he tries to, it's gonna be disastrous. I mean, I've seen plenty of guys in my career. They're just swinging straight up, trying to hit everything for power, and I'm sorry, that's not the body you have, and that's not the skill set you have. It doesn't work that way, and ideally, and a good lineup is not constructed that way.

00:35:53
Speaker 1: It's not homogenous.

00:35:54
Speaker 7: But this is a guy who has a little does a little bit of everything, and outside of the power, doesn't fall short in a lot of areas. So I'm putting him there kind of as a None.

00:36:05
Speaker 1: Of his awards are huge.

00:36:07
Speaker 7: To put it that way, He's got an interesting skill set and I wouldn't be surprised. I mean, if you told me he's also a player who gets dealt, that wouldn't be surprising either. He's got a lot of stuff that teams like, and the makeup is really good too.

00:36:21
Speaker 6: To kind a quick question, I'd like to throw comps on people. He sounds a little bit like an Andrew Benattendee type player. Is that a decent comp for him Ben attending Maybe with a little bit more pop.

00:36:35
Speaker 7: Well, I don't like throwing comps on people, but I'd say a little less pop. Mean, he's a thirty grade power at peak. Benin Tendee had some thump.

00:36:47
Speaker 1: A little bit.

00:36:47
Speaker 7: I understand it was muted a little bit by the wrist. Fun fact inside Baseball, But we gave him our College Player of the Year award back in the day. I got to present him that award, which was silly because I didn't know anything about him.

00:36:59
Speaker 1: I was on the pro beat.

00:37:02
Speaker 7: That was one of the worst speeches in the history of human words, quite frankly, and he found me a couple of years later and said you're the guy I gave that terrible speech.

00:37:13
Speaker 1: You're absolutely right, Andrew. I am so thank you for bringing that up.

00:37:18
Speaker 6: Do you remember I did have an opportunity to coach him in Boston for a year or so. Just as far as makeup and stuff, the way he went about it pretty solid.

00:37:29
Speaker 1: Had a hard scrabble guy.

00:37:30
Speaker 7: So would you agree with me that he's Ben and Tendi at his peak had better than thirty power.

00:37:35
Speaker 6: Yeah, I think Ben Attendi's probably more like a forty to forty five power type guy.

00:37:43
Speaker 3: At his peak.

00:37:44
Speaker 6: Didn't really translate as far as raw power in the big leagues necessarily, But yes, now he's probably what attend to eighteen home run guy.

00:37:56
Speaker 7: Yeah, I mean that's way more than I would from Norri So right, just kind of an okay guy in center field. If he sticks in center field, that's really the key. And I wonder what kind of opportunities he's gonna get to do that based on who's got in front of him.

00:38:13
Speaker 1: But he's a really interesting ballplayer, and I've I liked him a little.

00:38:16
Speaker 7: Bit when I saw him in clear Water, and I think I saw him a little bit in the fallag My folleague trip has kind of jumbled at this point, especially because of all the rain that I got. But you know, interesting little player. That's pretty much a very short way of describing him. Just interesting little ballplayer, Josh.

00:38:34
Speaker 5: When they drafted Norrie, they drafted the.

00:38:36
Speaker 4: Kid Burkholder right behind him, another outfielder hurt a lot of bottom at draft time.

00:38:40
Speaker 5: I think he was hurt this year a little bit. Mm hmm. Do you what should kind of feel on him?

00:38:47
Speaker 7: I think they they have him higher than I do. And I actually, here full disclosure, I was writing him as number ten, and then as I write him, I'm like, I just I can't. There's got to be somebody better here. Like it's there are skills there, but there are major warts, and one of those warts is health. He has not stayed on the field, and when he does, he has some pretty bad swing and mis tendencies. And I just I can't put a guy in ten who, unless the system is much worse, who has not stayed healthy and really not produced. Like yeah, I talked to one scout and I'll kind of some some up, but he said like this, like you know, he doesn't do this, he doesn't do this, he doesn't do this, but you know what, I can make him a roll fifty. All right, Well, that's the most optimistic look I've seen in a while. You just said eighty six things you hate about him, and you gave him a five. But that's interesting. But I get it. There's upside there, and I would like him to show it first. It's kind of a boomer Bus profile, and right now it's been a little bit of it's a little little bustier than you would like.

00:39:56
Speaker 4: Traded a catching prospector to the Twins. They got any cat.

00:40:00
Speaker 7: Coming a little bit. Nothing quite as sexy as Tayit. Cayden Hediger is going to be on that list. Caleb Ricketts who outside chance to get protected for the rule five. Those are kind of the names right now. There's nothing you know Taye like coming. If you believe tay can stick behind there.

00:40:21
Speaker 5: Heard the name Faribus a little bit.

00:40:23
Speaker 1: Farabis is a good one.

00:40:24
Speaker 7: Yeah, he's a little bit lower on the pecking he's you know, none of these guys are you.

00:40:30
Speaker 1: Know, starters.

00:40:31
Speaker 7: I don't think frontline starters in the big leagues. There's no certainly real Muto doesn't have to worry about any of these guys. I don't think, I guess that's a kind of catty way to put it. But you know, they're they're interesting, but they're not they wouldn't be consideration for the ten. I don't think they've had their moments in the past, but just been moments.

00:40:50
Speaker 2: Josh, I know, like a last couple of years, uh before he now has elevated in the rankings, a run Escobar. You know, a lot of teams are kind of calling the Phillies on him for potential trade. Is there anybody that we have not talked about? Maybe you know, who are I guess maybe who are your under the radar guys that if the Phillies make a trade this winner and he's included, we might be surprised to know that, Oh yeah, the Twins were really in on this guy. They love this guy even though he's not in any top ten list.

00:41:22
Speaker 7: The guy I would come up with, especially if you're asking about the Twins, who are pitching demons. A lot of all organizations are these days. Ramon Marquez right hander in the FCL, and then I saw him, I so I'm in the FCL, and then he pitched in the FSL later in the year, and one disaster start and then a lot of borderline gems. You know, you're talking about a guy with a fifty five to sixty fastball, above average change up, above average slider, needs to throw more strikes, a lot of raw ingredients there. When I saw him, he was pretty nasty. He went pitched for pitch with one of the Blue Jay's better prospects, Johnny King. That change up is real, and truth be told, if you have anything close to a real change but I'm sure you know this all. You can do a lot of damage against low level hitters who are allergic to that particular pitch. But and that was the case that day, there were a lot of low level hitters who hadn't died. A whole heck of a lot of changeups he's got. But those two pitches working in the fastball in the changeup working in concert are pretty good. The slider is it's he needs to be a little more consistent, But he've got a lot of good characteristics in the fastball as well. So this is a guy who's an arm on the rise. That was mentioned to me at mid season. I'm sure our listeners know. We update these lists constantly and around in May June one of their guys.

00:42:47
Speaker 1: Said, hey, maybe.

00:42:49
Speaker 7: Maybe pay attention to this guy, and there's some smart evaluators in those systems, and he was correct. Another guy who's come up a lot. I don't know if he'd be a trade ship as like a maybe he might be a third piece at this point.

00:43:04
Speaker 1: Gabe Craig.

00:43:05
Speaker 7: He's an older guy that got him in the draft this year. Big fastball, absolutely filthy sweeper, like that's gonna do damage against some better hitters, and did so against And I was watching a little bit of video last night and prep for this call. I saw him, you know, take a part Nolan Schubard of Oklahoma State with one of these things and turn him into a marionette kind of with what he was spinning at his feet. It was pretty impressive. So this is a guy you talked about fast movers. This is a guy who might be able to see triple A at the end of the year, especially because he's older, he's got a high college pedigree. He and I guess that the stuff is real. And the last one I'll give you is a local kid around here, James Tallon, who they brought up when I was talking to him at mid season. A duke guy, lefty slider fastball kind of plays a little bit better than the velocity. He fits at the back end of a top thirty, and I should know I'm writing a top thirty, but there's some They have a lot of stuff, a lot of traits that they covet, in particular with fastballs, and he kind of hits all of them, so that it might be a little guy to watch too, maybe more of a mid season trade than an off season trade before he after he kind of proves it in a regular season seven.

00:44:25
Speaker 4: So, like before we wrap up, how about just a thought on Andrew Painter. We kind of glossed over him at the top. Your take on his season, why it maybe wasn't as stellar as everybody expected. Do you expect to see him in the rotation in April? And just you know, I know you've given him some high marks in the past. You mentioned those those three words, h O F. You know, what are we going to see?

00:44:52
Speaker 5: How about this? What are we going to see Andrew Painter in twenty six?

00:44:57
Speaker 7: I think you'll see him in the rotation at some point. They're still believe in him a lot. The reason for reasons his season was maybe not again, not a bad season.

00:45:09
Speaker 1: The fact that a.

00:45:09
Speaker 7: Guy off coming off Tommy John surgery took the ball every single time is an achievement in and of itself. So his arm slot dropped throughout the course of the year, and part of that is the workload. And when his arm slot dropped, it affected the way his fastball played. I get it. It's you know, it's ninety seven to one hundred or whatever. But it became more hittable as a result. We all know on this called it ninety seven to one hundred in the big leagues. It ain't what it used to be. It's not it's not kryptonite. And triple A hitters proved the same. If he can improve that fastball quality and get that arm slot backed up to where it needs to be, I think he'll be right back where you know we all saw him two three years ago. They also changed the way his change up works. They made the poor of a kind of a fourth fifth pitch. They changed the grip on it.

00:45:58
Speaker 5: Again.

00:45:58
Speaker 7: We could do amazing things in this game right now, with high speed cameras and biomechanists and all sorts of people who are way smarter than me. I don't know about y'all who can pitch design and do all those things that they found a better change up for it. They also added a two seemer. We're in I mean, we're in that era right now where a guy can have a cutter of four seamer and a two seamer and that's not uncommon.

00:46:18
Speaker 1: They gave him a two seamer.

00:46:20
Speaker 7: Maybe it may can be a little bit more pitch efficient and kind of as a backup in case that four steamer really wasn't playing well. He only threw it like thirty percent of the time in the minor leagues this year.

00:46:31
Speaker 1: But it's there.

00:46:31
Speaker 7: It's another weapon, it's another button you can press on PitchCom at this point. But if he can get that fastball quality back to where it needs to be, I have no doubt that he's going to be the guy that I saw two three years ago absolutely just.

00:46:49
Speaker 1: Annihilate the Greensboro Grasshoppers.

00:46:52
Speaker 7: What I saw again was surgical, just he did everything he wanted and another inside baseball kind of tid we were doing best tools at the time.

00:47:02
Speaker 1: Your readers are really familiar with that.

00:47:04
Speaker 7: The Greensboro manager had already submitted his ballot. He called me after that start and said, change every pitching category to Andrew Painter, this is unreal. Like he gave up like two hits that outing over seven, and I think those two hits were mercy. Like there's bleeders over the infield or whatever. Just you leave the park just kind of you think about it your entire seventy minute drive home.

00:47:30
Speaker 1: You don't see that very often.

00:47:33
Speaker 6: Hey, Josh, I had us one more question, and this is sort of off the wall.

00:47:37
Speaker 3: But you've seen these guys.

00:47:40
Speaker 6: You've seen a sort of an infiltration of coaches and managers into from college.

00:47:48
Speaker 3: Bit to the major leagues.

00:47:50
Speaker 5: Don't know what your.

00:47:51
Speaker 6: Relationship, if you had any at all with Tony boateello, how do you think he's going to handle the situation that he's going to be handed there in San Francisco.

00:48:03
Speaker 7: I've only talked to Tony once. I went down to Knoxville this year to see Liam Doyle and he had cut the courtesy to throw a no hitter for me. So that was at least the first five and two thirds of one. And you talked to Tony afterward. He's certainly a character, Yes, he is. I have a lot of thoughts on this. I don't know I think someone would be out of school. But I will trust a guy like Buster Posey to evaluate the guy he needs to do it. You know, Buster Posey is a spark guy. You know, he played in the big leagues for a long time, smart enough to when he right. But before he got hired, the Giants had dumped a bunch of their pro scouts. One of the first things he did was hire a bunch of other ones right back. He didn't say, you know what, we don't need these people. We need a blend. And that's you know, I'm I have a soft spot in my heart for pro scouts. This guy hired him and being so, I'm gonna take what he believes he hired some really good ones. He made some eight plus hires. Anyway, I trust that he made the right decision for his club. That said, I'm very It's a different world in college.

00:49:16
Speaker 5: You know.

00:49:16
Speaker 7: Part of Tennessee being Tennessee is they were able to say, hey, you can transfer over here, you can transfer over here.

00:49:21
Speaker 1: We've got some nil money.

00:49:24
Speaker 7: You're not going to take sho Heo Tani to dinner and get him an nil package and get him to San Francisco. So there's a there's a big beast in the West, and there might be two beasts depending on what the Padres do. I'm very curious how much Tony can make a difference in San Francisco. I wonder how a guy like you know, Raphael Devers is going to react to a person or a personality like Tony Bytello's established big leaguers are not the same as you know eighteen twenty one, twenty two year ol college kids. You can't sist boomba ra ra rah your way to a title or success. We've seen it where you know, Nick Saban was okay in the NFL. Urban Meyer was a disaster in the NFL. I'm not saying that's gonna it's just gonna be very interesting. And he's relatively young, forty seven. He looks way he looks way less, way younger than he is. It's the hair, but I I think I'm very interested. And the only other thing, too, is I really wish there were a bigger pipeline of minor league coach than managers to get chances in.

00:50:39
Speaker 1: The big leagues.

00:50:40
Speaker 7: The other the other guy on the other side of the World Series. This year we have Dave Roberts obviously played for a long time. John Schneider came up through the big leagues or the minor leagues. You know, I've talked to him when he was in Double A. He coached a lot of these guys. He's got established relationship with a lot of these players. You know, managed for Boba, Shad and Vladdie and that matters. So Tony's gonna have to get relationships with a lot of these guys on the flot not all of them. Drew Gilbert obviously was one of his kids, and they've got Blade Tidwell, who was one of his Maui Yahuna if he gets there in San Francisco, is one of his kids. But he's gonna have to start now establishing relationships with all twenty five twenty six guys on that roster. And last year, this is a long answer. Terry Francona when he got hired by Cincinnati, I was in the Fall League. He came down to the Fall League and was pounding around. At that point, they had Christian and Karnassi on strand and Matt McClain rehabbing in the Fall League, and he came down there and got acquainted with them, and they got acquainted with the pro staff, the pro scouts who were there at the time, and he you know, ever, for three or four days, I was seeing Terry Francona just in the parking lot bs ing with various members of the Reds organization. So it's November sixth, We've got, you know, three months till spring training. He's gonna have to start building relationship with all those guys that to go into They're having a camp in Oracle right now.

00:52:02
Speaker 1: With some of their prospects.

00:52:04
Speaker 7: I didn't expect to talk so much about the giants in this podcast, but they're having a prospect camp right now at San Francisco. I wonder if he's there, maybe meeting some of the guys meeting the farm. Well, he's probably met some of them. You're in the interview process. But there's a lot he needs to do. I wish him the best. He's an interesting guy and he will definitely be an asset for the visibility of the game based on his big personality and if we, if we, if he is successful, maybe that's a new avenue to get coaching talent to the big leagues.

00:52:34
Speaker 1: We'll see. So I wish the best of him.

00:52:36
Speaker 2: Josh, My last question is a little bit more than a month or now.

00:52:40
Speaker 3: Is the Rule five draft? Okay?

00:52:42
Speaker 1: And where my boss got very excited.

00:52:47
Speaker 5: Exactly Staple, Oh yeah, the Rule five draft.

00:52:52
Speaker 3: Absolutely.

00:52:52
Speaker 2: So we know Andrew Painter is going to be protected from the Rule five Yeah, I think so. I would bet based away. Dave Dombrowski is talking about him. Real, Rinconas Junior is protected from the Rule five draft. Maybe not, I don't know, kind of so it would surprise me if he wasn't. After that, though, Is there anybody else that you think is should be protected or could be protected at I'm gonna throw a couple of names I've heard or you know Alex McFarlane, You know Griff McGarry.

00:53:21
Speaker 3: He wasn't protected last year.

00:53:22
Speaker 2: He kind of rebounded a little bit this year. Caleb Ricketts, who you mentioned earlier you said is probably a long shot to be protected. Felix Reis and a couple other guys out there. Anybody that I mentioned or didn't mention that you think they don't protect him? He might be somewhere else this spring.

00:53:41
Speaker 7: Now, those are those are all good names, obviously, Painter, Rinconas, mccarlan might have a chance. Probably, you know, probably is a reliever at this point in his career. And I will give a shout out here to Matt Winkleman and the Phillies. Minor thoughts grew. I stole their list of guys who are Rule five eligible. They didn't want to bug my boss at whatever time at night mentioned Cala Bricketts. I think there's an outside chance catching the the dearth of catching in the big leagues might give him a chance. One other guy that they brought up, one of the people brought up I don't know about necessarily for protection, but maybe for the list is a writing named salt Tehran who went to it was in Double A this year.

00:54:21
Speaker 1: It's a It's a bastard slider, no question about it.

00:54:25
Speaker 3: Uh.

00:54:25
Speaker 7: He had some successive a little older. He did most of his damage at a Class A. But that's a real swing and Mispitch I would be stunned, lightly stunned if he was protected, but because I don't think there's a risk of a big league club taking him and holding him for the entire year. But he's got the stuff to be a big leaguer at some point. I wouldn't be surprised if He's at the back of my list. Nobody else jumps out on the among this group. They mentioned Daniel Harper at some points, a guy who could have been in the big leagues this year but it didn't work out, and he hasn't. I don't think he's had as strong as go about it in the in the fall League. I'm looking down this list here, that's pretty much it. I think I would they surprised me, to surprise me, but those are the names that jump out.

00:55:11
Speaker 2: Got it, Josh, Josh, thanks so much for the time, man. We it was fun going through your top ten Baseball America's Top ten list and talking about somebody's on the radar guys and and all that.

00:55:23
Speaker 3: So thank you.

00:55:24
Speaker 6: Yeah, great stuff, Josh, thanks so much for taking the time.

00:55:26
Speaker 3: That was terrific.