1041: Week 8 Sleepers

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Speaker 1: This is the Labor Podcast with your host JJ Zacker Retha j J.

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Speaker 2: Zacher reson.

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Speaker 1: What's up everyone, It's JJ Zacharyeson in this episode ten forty one of the Late Round Fantasy football podcast sponsored by DraftKings.

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Speaker 2: Thanks for tuning in.

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Speaker 2: The crown is yours.

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Speaker 1: Gambling problem called one hundred gambler in New York called eight seven to seven eight hope n Why in Connecticut called eight eight eight seventy nine seven seven seven seven eighteen plus and most states Eligibilia Stritians. Supply ends December thirty first see terms at DraftKings dot com slash promotions. You know, I went into last week's Sleeper Show not feeling that great. It was a really tough week, but I came out of it feeling pretty decent about the picks. Now there were obviously some bad ones as deep sleepers. The Rams wide receivers weren't usable at all. Pat Bryant, he didn't get the love that I thought could be possible. In Isaac Teslaw, he didn't catch a pass. Kendre Miller and Kareem Hunt were misses, with Miller obviously tearing his ACL But like last week, had some awesome hits that I'm really happy about. On Thursday night, there was Aaron Rodgers, Noah Fan and Joe Flacco all giving good performances. Stafford was awesome in London, Ormandre Stevenson was the right call. Woody Mark scored. Romeo Dobbs had thirteen PPR points, so did Kyle pitt Zachertz and Kate otten Wandel Robinson got it done again. Tes Johnson scored almost sixteen PPR points, Alec Pierce had fifteen, Kyle Mnungui scored seventeen, and then Arondez freaking Gatstan had almost thirty. And then there was the defenses. The three defenses that I called out last week were Cleveland, Carolina in Chicago. Those three defenses ranked in the top six of the position last week. Considering what I was working with, I think last week might have been the best sleeper show the season. I'm proud of the work. Let's hope things don't regress here in week eight.

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Speaker 2: Now.

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Speaker 1: There are a lot of buys this week, which means we have fewer players to pick from, which means I'm stuck with another tough week.

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Speaker 2: But that's okay. We can still find some gems.

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Speaker 1: The first tier of sleepers consists of a players roster in fifty to eighty percent of Yahoo leagues. And we've got one quarterback here, and it's Jackson Dart. As I said in the ten Trends episode, Dart's something that you basically have to just keep starting until he shows you otherwise. Only Patrick Mahomes, Josh Allen, and Lamar Jackson are averaging more standard Fantasy points per start this year, and Darts giving fantasy managers a nice high floor with his legs. He's hit fifty four rushing yards in three of four games. He scored a rushing touchdown in three or four games as well. With that being said, I'm definitely at least a little bit nervous about this rematch against the Eagles this week. The Giants are in Philadelphia this time and they have an implied total of just a little over eighteen points. The Eagles are also a top five team against quarterbacks this year by justin points allowed. I do think you can play them, but this isn't exactly like a smash spot. I just think darts at the point where he has a high ceiling each week, so I'm gonna call him out. Moving on a running back, Kamani Vadell has seen running back rush shares of seventy five ninety percent over his last two games to go along with about a ten percent target share. He's been the Chargers go to in that backfield, and now Hassan Haskins isn't expected to play on Thursday night, that could raise Vydell's potential even more. He gets a Vikings matchup that on paper really isn't that bad, or at least not as bad as people might think. The Vikings are a fringe bottom ten team for running backs and adjusted points allowed, but they've actually played below expectation in running back rushing yards allowed, and they also rank eleventh in adjusted target share given up to the position. So Fidelle's definitely in play, and I think whatoy Marx is again this week too. As I said on the ten Trends episode, Marks had his best peripherals of the season last week, or I guess it was on Monday night, So technically this week he had a sixty seven percent running back rush share. He saw a lot of looks through the air too, Houston's line in that offense. In general, it's messy for sure. In this matchup against the forty nine ers. For Woody Marx, it's average to below average. But here's the thing. San Francisco ranks first an adjusted target chair allowed to running backs this year. They're thirty second, dead last and adjusted target chair allowed to wide receivers. We know that Marx is the pass catching back in that backfield. Maybe more looks are going to go his way this week through the air. If you want sort of a deeper play out of this tier, this could be a decent week for RJ. Harvey and I know a lot of you are just looking for something at running back this week.

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Speaker 2: Now.

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Speaker 1: Harvey's unfortunately not seen much of an uptick and snapshare over the last few weeks. He was at just twenty five percent last week. Tyler Badey ended up playing just as much is RJ.

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Speaker 2: Harvey.

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Speaker 1: But prior to last week, when Harvey had a five percent target share, his target chairs were fourteen percent, thirteen percent, nine percent, and sixteen percent. Those are strong, and the Broncos are in a potentially high scoring environment this week because they get Dallas.

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Speaker 2: That's a team that can't stop that much defensively.

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Speaker 1: They've also given up the third highest adjusted target share to running backs. Look, Harvey's very risky, but I could see a scenario where he gets like five or six targets in a full PPR environment. That might be enough given all these bye weeks. Now, moving on to wide receiver, I might just have a segment every week where I talk about the Green Bay Packers wideouts Romeo Dobbs and Matthew Golden. Dobbs is the play over Golden. He's seeing more consistent looks. But the Packers get the Steelers this week. And did you see that Steelers secondary in Week seven? Pittsburgh's now allowed the second most adjusted fantasy points to wide receivers this year, and teams are targeting wide receivers when they face the Steelers. Pittsburgh's allowed the fifth highest adjusted target share to wideouts. It's a beatable defense and Golden and Dobbs should be able to take advantage. And honestly, let's throw Wandell Robinson into a weekly segment bucket two because I'm gonna call him out again now. Philly's actually been arguably the toughest matchup for slot receivers this year, giving up the second fewest adjusted points and target share to the position. Robinson's playing all over the field right now, though, because all those wide receiver injuries for the Giants.

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Speaker 2: So that's at least good.

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Speaker 1: But the bottom line with him is that he's seen at least a twenty five percent target share in all but two games this year. Without Molik Neighbors, his target chair per game rate has been twenty seven percent. And what could end up being a pass heavy script for the Giants, I think Robinson should have a decent enough floor. Now, moving on to tight end, there are a lot of tight end plays this week, so buckle up now. Look, I'm definitely a little bit nervous about Mark Andrews because he ran fewer routes in Isaiah likely the last time we saw the Ravens. But I think Andrews can work this week. Chicago's been above average matchup for tight ends this year and just fantasy points allowed, and only the Bengals have seen a higher adjusted target share to the position. Baltimore is a twenty eight and a half point implied team total with Lamar Jackson likely back, and the Bears have allowed twenty passing yards over expected to be thrown on them per game this year. That's a bottom ten number in football. So you can look Andrew's way and kind of hope for a touchdown and rather than bore you later on in the show with the exact same information, I do think Isaiah likely works as a deeper sleeper. Kyle Pitts is coming off his highest target share in well over a year, and the Falcons get to Miami defense this week that's been averaged to above average for tight ends this season. We know Miami is horrible against the run, but they've been pretty friendly to running backs just in general. They've all had the sixth highest adjusted target share to that position, but they're also fourth and adjusted target shair allowed to tight ends. With pitt seeing the relatively consistent work that he's seeing, he makes sense this week. I haven't called out this name in a while, but Evan Ingram is intriguing in that potential high scoring affair against the Cowboys. Ingram actually saw a season high sixty six percent route share in Week seven. He hasn't dip below a fifteen percent target share since Week two. Granted, he's been between a fifteen percent and twenty percent share each week, but that could yield a decent amount of volume against Dallas. There's a chance for a pass heavier script. Teams are also targeting their tight ends at a higher rate when they face the Cowboys compared to wide receivers. Dallas has actually allowed the second lowest adjusted target share to wideouts this year, but it's eight highest to tight ends. So maybe Evan Ingram will be okay. And then finally, my guy Cardio Kad Kate Otton all the way up in this tier. He started from the bottom, now he's in the top tier in the sleeper show. The Buccaneers wide receiver room is super banged up and that's helped Kate Otton over the last few weeks. He always has a high route participation rate, but his target shairs have finally caught up at sixteen percent, twenty six percent, and eighteen percent over his last three The Saints are a slightly below average matchup for tight ends this year, but Tampa Bay has a twenty five and a half point implied team total, so Auton's not a bad play. The next group of players are rostered in twenty to fifty percent of Yahoo leagues. We'll start a quarterback, of course, and we'll start with Joe Flacco. He gets the Jets and New York might be without Sauce Gardner this week. New York has given up a pretty average number of adjusted points per game to fantasy quarterbacks, but the Bengals have a twenty five point implied team total in this matchup, and the pace score for this game is second best across the board. That's just my way of seeing if a game might play a little bit faster than we expect.

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Speaker 2: As I've been saying on.

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Speaker 1: The show, Flacco should have some usability this year, and this week is one of those weeks where we could see that, especially because the Jets haven't been that great.

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Speaker 2: To get into the quarterback, the.

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Speaker 1: Falcons have an implied team total of twenty six points. They likely are gonna get a lot done on the ground with the pair of running backs, and I'll talk about that more in a second, But Miami is still the sixth best matchup for quarterbacks this year by adjusted fantasy points allowed, and that's despite the fact that they're playing eleven passing yards per game above expectation. The Dolphins also have one of the weaker pass rushes in football, according to PFF data, That gives the Falcons a better opportunity for some cleaner pockets. So Michael Pennix, as long as he's healthy and as long as he goes, he makes sense as a streamer. Now, a riskier move might be Aaron Rodgers in a revenge game against the Packers. Green Bay can get to the quarterback. According to PFF data among teams playing this week, only the Texans have pressured quarterbacks at the higher rate this season. But because Aaron Rodgers has this really low average depth of target and he's getting the ball out pretty quickly, Pittsburgh's pressure rate allowed isn't all that bad. That combination may be able to help the Steelers. The Packers have allowed the eleventh most adjusted fantasy points to quarterbacks this year too, which is kind of surprised. So maybe Rogers gets it done in this revenge game on Sunday Night. Now, going back to that matchup against Miami for Atlanta, Tyler algear makes so much sense this week. Miami's now allowed thirty three running back rushing yards per game over expected this season. That's the worst in the league. The Dolphins are giving up the fifth most adjusted fantasy points the running backs, and since facing Jonathan Taylor in the Colts in Week one, the Dolphins have allowed a top ten running back performance every single week. And yeah, of course that's gonna be b John Robinson this week hopefully. But Tyler Algeer could obviously take advantage of this matchup two. He's seen a forty percent running back rush here or higher in three games this season, and if game script is favorable, he'll likely be on the field. More So, he's not a bad play. Taj Spears is sort of the opposite of Tyler Algeer this week. He's a play on a negative game script and the matchup is not nearly as juicy, but the Titans are massive underdogs against the Colts if that game script goes south. We've seen the Titans lean on Taj Spears as their pass catching back. Over his last two games, he's hit target shares of eleven point eight percent and twelve point five percent. He's seen four targets in both games. That might be enough for you in a PPR league. This weekend, Kyle mcnunguy saw season high thirty nine percent running back rush air and a twelve percent target share against the Saints last week. Now, to be fair, that game script was way more favorable for the Bears than this one might be this weekend because they get the Ravens and they're pretty big underdogs. Even still, it's a tough week with buys. You might need a fill in, and I think mcnunguy works, and that's because Baltimore has been the second easiest matchup for running backs this season by justin fantasy points allowed. Now, lastly, Brichard Smith might work this week too. In most neutral script environments, he's probably like a two to five target player without a ton of work on the ground. But we saw last week when Kansas City got a big lead, they leaned on Smith more on the ground. He saw a lot of work in the fourth quarter, So maybe some floor in PPR leagues just because he is seeing work early on in these games. He's actually had back to back games with a fourteen percent target chair. He's seen four, three, four and five targets over his last four games. But with Jayden Daniels out, there's a possibility that Kansas City just sees a really nice lead in this game that could then lead to Burchard Smith getting more work. There are worse options out there for desperate managers, and I know a lot of you listening to this you're desperate this week because I am two in some leagues. Now, moving on to wide receiver, Tess Johnson's an obvious play this week. No Mike Evans, no Chris Godwin. Johnson's coming off a game where he hit an eighteen percent target chair. He's had routchaers of eighty four percent and seventy four percent over his last two. Now, the Saints aren't necessarily a plus matchup, but the usage should be there for Johnson, and then he's a deeper play. But I'll shout him out right now. You could look at Sterling Shepard too, though right now I do prefer test j Johnson. Troy Franklin's another one. I mentioned earlier that Denver gets Dallas, and no team has allowed more passing yards over expected than the Cowboys this year, and no team has given up more adjusted fantasy points to wide receivers. With Franklin still hitting about a seventy five percent routshare over his last four and with a seventeen percent target share per game rate over that span, he's a reasonable sleeper. With Lamar Jackson likely back this week, I think we're Shoan Bateman might be in play. Over his first three games three with Lamar Jackson, he had target shares of twenty one percent, fourteen percent, and twenty five percent. We know that Bateman can get deep. He had a fifteen yard a dot last year and a twenty five percent air yard share. And Chicago there's seventh in completion rate allowed on deep ball throws. It's an interesting matchup for a potential big play. Now, moving on to tight end, we have to talk about Ronde Gatson. Right, Gatson seen routchairs of seventy seven percent and seventy nine percent over his last two He's coming off a twenty nine point performance in PPR formats. The Chargers get the Vikings this week, and Minnesota's not like an amazing matchup on paper, but they do rank seventh and adjusted target share allowed to tight ends, and they've seen the highest percentage of targets allowed go to slot receivers this year. Gatson's a tight end, but he often runs out of the slot. That's gonna help players like Lad McConkie and Keenan Allen. No doubt, but Gatson might be okay after his huge performance last week. Mason Taylor's been a disappointment over the last couple of weeks, but let's hope that changes with Tyrod Taylor or to Rod however he wants us to pronounce it. Taylor's seen a nineteen percent target share per game rate over his last five and the Jets get a Bengals team this week that's just been bad against tight ends this year. They've allowed the most adjusted points and the highest adjusted target shair to the position. It's literally the best matchup on paper, so that makes him a streaming option. Dalton Schultz is another one. We're dealing with potential out tags for Nico Collins and Christian Kirk this week, so targets could be fun Dalton Schultz's way at least a little bit more, and San Francisco their opponent their fifth and adjusted target shair allowed to tight ends they've been twelfth and adjusted points allowed per game, and then finally in this tier, Colston Loveland. If Cole Comet doesn't go, Colston Loveland will be the tight end one for the Bears, and Loveland gets a Ravens team that's been an above average matchup for tight ends this year, and Loveland has seen double digit percentage target chairs in three consecutive games. He also had a season high sixty three percent route share last week, So if Comet's out, Loveland might have a decent day and a potential pass heavy script. Moving on, let's look at players roster and in fewer than twenty percent of Yahoo leagues you might want to start this week, Tyrod Taylor.

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Speaker 2: To Rod Taylor, he's the first one.

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Speaker 1: Assuming he plays, he gets a Bengals team that ranks as the fourth best matchup for passers by justin fantasy points allowed. They're giving up forty one adjusted passing yards over expected per game. There also might be a little bit of mobility for Taylor too. Now I don't adore him this week. The weapons in that offense are really not great, so I would still temper your expectations. I actually think Marcus Mariota is the better play. He's had significant pass attempts and four games with the Commanders dating back to last year. In those games, he scored twenty point three, sixteen point two, nineteen point six, and twenty six point zero standard Fantasy points, and that's largely because of his mobility. The matchup against the Chiefs isn't anything special, but they should be forced into this negative game script that could result in a lot more scrambling, and for that alone, I think Marcus Mariota works. Now, speaking of the Commanders, my only running back from this tier is Jerry McNichols, a player I called out last week and he more or less did what I expected. It wasn't a great game script. He scored six and a half PPERO points on a ten percent target share. This week's game script for the Commanders it could look just as bad against Kansas City, and McNichols essentially is playing all of their two minute snaps and the vast majority of their long down in distance once. That's why he sees like two rush attempts per game, but then three to five targets, so if you're in a serious pinch. Kansas City does rank fourth and adjusted target share allowed to running backs, so McNichols could be in play in PPR formats at wide receiver. I talked about Jalen Nol on yesterday's ten Trends episode. I think he's pretty intriguing this week because Christian Kirk and Nico Collins might be out now. Nole didn't have a crazy route share in Week seven. Despite that fifteen percent target share, he ran a route on forty six percent of Houston's dropbacks. However, there's a chance he's rewarded and he gets more run this week, and this matchup against San Francisco is really interesting. Nole's running about sixty eight percent of his routes from the slot this year, and the forty nine Ers, despite ranking thirty second and adjusted target share allowed to wide receivers, they ranked second and adjusted target share to slot wide receivers. Teams are really targeting the slot when they face the forty nine Ers. They've allowed the seventh most adjusted fantasy points to slot wide outs. So because of that, I think Knowle's a really fun and sneaky player this week. It's pretty tough this week to find deep sleepers. I'm gonna go back to Josh Reynolds. He saw a ninety three percent route chair last week he had nine targets. Now he gets a hopeful upgrade at quarterback, and the Bengals are an above average matchup for wide receivers by adjusted points allowed. I do think there's at least a PPR floor for Josh Reynolds now at tight end. I mentioned Isaiah Likely earlier in the show as a deeper sleeper. That's the only one I got, So let's move on to defenses. Atlanta is the one that I called out earlier this week. They definitely definitely work against Miami if they're available, But there's two others you could look at Buffalo against Carolina they're sub fifty percent rostered, and then Cincinnati against New York. That's it for today's show, though, thanks to all of you for listening. If you get subscribed to the Late Round Fantasy Football podcast, make sure you are by sweting for it pretty much anywhere podcasts can be found, and to follow me on Twitter and on Blue Sky at Late Round QB. Thanks for listening to everyone. I'll be back tomorrow with the weekly Mailbag show.