1033: Week 6 Sleepers

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Speaker 1: This is the Labor Podcast with your host JJ zacherathas y Jake zacher.

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Speaker 2: Reefon What's up everyone.

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Speaker 1: It's JJ Zacharyeson in this episode ten thirty three of the Late Round Fantasy football podcast sponsored by DraftKings.

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Speaker 2: Thanks for tuning in.

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Speaker 1: There's no better way to get closer to the action than with DraftKings Daily Fantasy, the ultimate destination for football fans. New customers can play free for their share of millions and prizes with their first a positive five dollars or more. Download the DraftKings Daily Fantasy app and enter promo code Late Round to play free for your share of millions. The crown is yours. Gambling problem called one hundred Gambler New York call eight seven seven eight ope n Why in Connecticut called eight eight seven eight nine seven seven seventy seven eighteen plus the most States. Eligibillion striptions apply ends December thirty first see terms at DraftKings dot com slash promotions. I was actually pretty pleased with how last week's sleeper show went. I ranked justin Fields as my cue two, and that was looking iffy at first, but garbage time Fields came through and he scored twenty six standard Fantasy points. Trey Tucker had no k outing. Sam Darnold was a great call. Matthew Stafford posted some ridiculous numbers where Shot White was great, Darren Waller balld out, Rico Dowbell destroyed, Michael Carter was the right. Arizona Cardinals running back. Theo Johnson had twenty one PPR points, Mason Taylor had almost eighteen. Harold Fannin found the end zone. I mean even Cay Dott and Cardio Kade had twelve PPR points. We had some really big hits last week. Now, of course, there were also some misses. I had the right process with Jalen Tolbert in my opinion, just given Ryan Flanoy's performance, but I picked the wrong Cowboys receiver. The Rams defense really really choked, Woody Mark's two point four PPR points, Blake Korum a horrible game, and Sean Tucker wasn't great either. But all in all, that was probably the best sleeper show the season. I was feeling really iffy about it when I recorded it too. Let's keep things going into Week six. We're gonna kick off this week's show the same way we kicked off last week's show, and that's with Matthew Stafford. You definitely have to be worried about the Rams getting conservative and not having to push things against this Ravens team because with Lamar Jackson banged up and I'm assuming he's gonna be out this week, though that's not confirmed right now, but this Ravens offense is not very good at the moment without Lamar Jackson. That's why the Rams are seven and a half point road favorites. But we thought the exact same thing last week against the forty nine ers, and look what happened. The Rams are supposed to score some points this week, and that's what matters most. They have a twenty six point imply team total, which is one of the best in the slate, and Baltimore is the second best matchup so far this year by justin fantasy points allowed to quarterbacks.

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Speaker 2: Teams are throwing about thirty eight.

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Speaker 1: More yards on the Ravens compared to their season long averages. Stafford's playing great football right now. He should be fine as a starter this week. That's the only quarterback in this tier of players roster in fifty to eighty percent of Yahoo leaks let's move on to running back and let's talk about Remandre Stevenson. Antonio Gibson is out for the year with a torn acl and Treyvon Henderson isn't quite ready yet. He's not quite ready to see the majority of the work in that New England backfield. Stevenson is a better cushion with his fumbling issues. As a result, Stevenson is seeing the goal line work in that offense. He's had a respectable route participation rate of fifty forty seven percent over his last two games. Those aren't great numbers, but they're usable. We can work with that. The Patriots get the Saints this week. That game has the fastest pace score among all matchups this week. That's just my way of displaying which games might be faster paced, and New England has a twenty four and a half point implied team total. The Saints have also been worse at limiting rushing yards to running backs than passing yards to quarterbacks. I think Stevenson can be usable despite those fumbling issues. Michael Carter saw the right kind of match up in gamescript for his skill set, or at least how Arizona sees his skill set.

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Speaker 2: In week five.

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Speaker 1: He ended the day with a seventy two percent running back rush here in his seventeen percent target share, and his backfield teammate made a costly mistake that could end up costing him more work in Week six.

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Speaker 2: That should only make you feel better about Michael Carter. Now.

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Speaker 1: Arizona doesn't have the greatest matchup in the world this weekend against Indianapolis, but it's just slightly below average on paper given the workload. I think Carter works a backup running back I like more though, is Rico Dudel. Donald is in the absolute perfect spot this week assuming Chewba Hubbard doesn't play. But even if Hubbard does, Donald would be considered more of a flex play given his performance last week in the matchup this week. Not only that, but Chewba Hubbard probably wouldn't see his normal workload Downald gets a revenge game against the Cowboys this week. Dallas has been weak defensively this year, both against the run and the pass. They've allowed the second most adjusted fantasy points to running backs. If Hubbards out, Dudle is legit a low end RB one in fantasy. Moving on to wide receiver, we'll see what's gonna happen with the forty nine Ers pas catchers, But of the two Juwan Jennings and Ricky Piersoll, it sounds better for Juwan Jennings this weekend, and I'm into him. Like I said in the fifteen Transaction Show, Jennings only had a route share above eighty percent in one game this year, and in that game, he scored almost twenty PPR points. The forty nine Ers going to Tampa Bay Buccaneers team that's allowed the twelfth most adjusted points to wide receivers this year, and they've allowed the six highest adjusted target shair to the position. So teams are throwing it to wide receivers when they face the Bucks. Don't sleep on Jennings in that same game. But on the opposite side of the field is Chris Godwin. Now you may be questioning using Godwin based on the fact that he didn't come through last week. He actually saw his usage slip a little bit, that's true, but Godwins saw his slot rate rise to fifty three percent in Week five. San Francisco has been beating the slot to start the year. When a justiner strength of opponent, They've allowed the second most Fantasy points in the second highest target shair to slot receivers in a game that could see an OK amount of scoring.

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Speaker 2: I don't totally mind Godwin.

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Speaker 1: It sounds like Darius Slayton's gonna miss Thursday Night's game against the Eagles, which means Wandel Robinson is the clear top target in that passing attack, which, on one hand pretty scary. On the other, he can be peppered with targets and that's what this is really about here. Robinson is seeing the highest rout shares of his career right now, and he's diplown eighteen percent target share just once this season.

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Speaker 2: His matchup against the Eagles is no cakewalk.

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Speaker 1: But if a player is probably gonna see a twenty to twenty five percent target shair if not higher, then he's gonna be called out on this show. I'll throw Romeo Dobbs and Matthew Golden out there this week too. The Packers may not throw the ball a toon this week in Cincinnati, but the Bengals are a top five team for wide receivers this year by justin Fantasy points allowed, and green May has an implied team total of twenty nine points, the high on the week there's touchdown potential for these pass catchers now. Romeo Dobbs is probably the preferred choice. The last time we saw him, he scored twenty seven PPR points. He's running the most routes on the Packers too, But it's not the worst spot in the world either for Matthew Golden. At tight end this tier, I got one for you. It's Darren Waller. The matchup this week against the Chargers not nearly as good as it was last week against the Panthers, but Waller saw an uptick and row participation last week, going from thirty six percent in his debut to sixty eight percent. He's seen end zone targets in both games that he's played this year. That touchdown upside is gonna be there each week for Waller, and that's why at this moment I have him ranked as a tight end one in Fantasy rest of season. The next tier of players consists of guys who are rostered in twenty to fifty percent of Yahoo leagues. And I've got one more quarterback for you, and that's Sam Darnold. Donald's coming off a huge performance against the Bucks, where he scored a season high twenty eight standard fantasy points, but he's been above the fifteen mark in each of his last four games. The Seahawks get the Jags this week, and while Jacksonville's defense has been opportunistic this year, they're still allowing twenty eight passing yards over expected per game. That's one of the higher marks in football. They've also been the eleven best matchup for quarterbacks by justin points allowed. Seattle has a respectable twenty two and a half point total. That makes Darnold a decent streaming option. I think Hasan Haskins is gonna be the one that gets the first crack at work and that Chargers backfield without Omari and Hampton, and that's big news because the Chargers get Miami. The Dolphins just watch Rico Daldell run all over them, and they've now given up thirty four point three rushing yards over expected this year to running backs. That's per game. That's basically tied with the Bears as the worst mark in the league. So if Haskins is getting work, and I don't mind Kamani by Deell either, so we can throw him out there too.

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Speaker 2: But if Haskins is.

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Speaker 1: Getting work, he should be able to stay relatively efficient even with the Arger's offensive line was now the other running back I have in this tier is Kendre Miller. I wouldn't be overly optimistic about Kendre Miller if Alvin Kamara goes this weekend because there's some chance that New Orleans is going to face a negative gamescript, which is going to favor Kamara. With that being said, Kamara hurt his ankle in practice on Wednesday. That means Miller would be in line for a lot more work if Kamara were to be sidelined at the time of this recording, I have no idea if Kamara's going to be in or out. I don't even know the severity of that injury, but it's worth paying attention to. Next on this list is Trey Tucker. I mentioned Tucker last week. He had a respectable eleven point one PPR points on a seventeen percent target share. He's now runner route on at least ninety percent of Vegas's dropbacks in every game this year, and this week the Raiders going a Titans team that's been average against wide receivers by justin points allowed. He's just kind of an ordinary play, but sometimes you need that when bye weeks are here. Alec Pierce Smith's some time due to a concussion, and it sounds like he could be back this week. That may impact Josh Downs to some degree, but it should be noted that Downs is just mostly playing that slot role even when pierces out. He has seen better route shares over the last two weeks though, which yes, could have to do with there being less of a rotation of their wide receivers. But Downs is a talented player who's just kind of playing less than expected to start the year. Regardless, Downs is primarily their slot gye and Indianapolis gets Arizona this week. The Cardinals are fourth and adjusted Fantasy points allowed to slot receivers and their seventh and adjusted slot target share allowed. Those are pretty different compared to their rankings against all wide receivers, which is thirteenth and adjusted Fantasy points allowed and nineteenth and adjusted target share allowed. In other words, teams have attacked Arizona via the slot, which could make Downs kind of a sneaky play this week. Not someone who's obvious to put in your lineup, though. Tennessee gets Vegas this week, like I said, and the Raiders don't have that much of a pass rush, he doesn't make the defense unusable.

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Speaker 2: More on that later, but it does mean that cam Ward.

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Speaker 1: Might be able to sit back in the pocket a little bit longer and deliver balls down the field, and that could be big for elk Iamnner, who has a thirteen point seven average up to target and a nineteen percent target share in the season. So in a plus matchup, he does make some sense. And Darnell Mooney does too. I talked about on the fifteen Transaction Show, but it's weird on the fantasy community just doesn't seem to care about Darnell Mooney. The Falcons get Buffalo this week, which isn't an amazing matchup on paper, but there could be a lot of passing volume in that.

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Speaker 2: Game for Atlanta.

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Speaker 1: Meanwhile, Mooney has seen target shairs of nineteen percent and twenty seven percent and his two completed games this year. As long as he's healthy, he's a decent sleeper at tight end. Mason Taylor is just seeing a lot of work for the Jets. This matchup against Denver not an easy one. They're a bottom ten matchup for tight ends this year by justin points allowed. But we can't Deny Taylor's volume. He's seen target shares of twenty six percent and twenty seven percent over the last two weeks. This game could hit a negative game script for the Jets, leading to another high volume day, and that's all we can ask for at tight end. I liked Harold Fannin's matchup last week and he was fine, but they used David and Joku more in the way that I thought that they might use Fannin. I do like Djoku more this week, but Fannin may not be a terrible play. Pittsburgh's a bottom five team against tight ends this year by justin points allowed, and Fannin is still seeing at least four targets per game. The problem we ran into last week is that his average up to target was zero point eight yards, But maybe that leads to more volume this week because they do get Pittsburgh and Pittsburgh's sixth in the league and pressure rate, Dylan Gabriel may be looking to get the ball out quick. Minnesota has been quite as good in pressure rate this year. That's who they played last week. Fannin's fifty percent routes share from last week definitely worrisome, but it was seventy one percent the week prior, so he's more of a desperation play. But I do think the matchup is kind of there. This final tier consists of players rostered and fewer than twenty percent of Yahoo leagues, so we're digging deeper. We're digging real deep. I got some crazy plays for you. One quarterback you could look at is Bryce Young. I know he's averaging just twelve point seven standard Fantasy points per game, but he gets Dallas this week. The Cowboys are the best matchup in football by adjusted points allowed, and when quarterbacks face him this year, they're scoring seven point three more points than their season long averages. Carolina has got a decent twenty three point IMPLY team total and they're at home, So Bryce Young makes sense if Mac Jones ends up starting this week, which I think that's where things are trending, and I think he could work as a streamer. San Francisco has an okay enough IMPLY team total over twenty two points. The pace score of this game against Tampa Bay is above average for the slate, and the Buccaneers have been the eighth best matchup for quarterbacks this year by adjusted points allowed. They've also given up seventeen passing yards over expected per game. Mac Jones looked good last week. I think he could work this week too. With this year at running back, you often have to go with game script reliant players. I say this each week. You can make the argument that that's the case for any running back on these sleeper shows. Now, with that in mind, one player who sort of jumps out this week is Justice Hill. Baltimore is a big underdog against the Rams, and we've seen Hill hit a double digit percentage target share each week this year. If that negative game script hits, we might see more of him. According to Fantasy Life data, he's played ninety five percent of.

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Speaker 2: The team's two minute snaps this season.

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Speaker 1: Now, in that same game and for the same reason, but on the opposite side is Blake Korum. If the Rams get out to a lead and they're able to hold that lead, we could end up seeing a decent amount of Korum and Baltimore ranks is the best matchup in football for running backs by justin fantasy points allowed. And then the last game script dependent running back is Emmanuel Wilson. Wilson's seen snapshares of twenty three percent twenty nine percent over his last two games. The Packers are fourteen and a half point favorites at home against the Bengals, and Cincinnati's been a top five opponent for running backs this year by justin points allowed. So if the Packers get out to that lead, maybe they give Josh Jacobs a little rest and they use a little bit more Wilson on that same team as Dantavian Wicks. Fantasy managers have Romeo Dobbs and Matthew Golden rostered in a whole bunch of leagues.

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Speaker 2: Wis isn't. He's rostered in three percent of Yahoo leagues. Now.

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Speaker 1: I do worry about overall passing volume in this game, but Wicks actually ran more routes than Matthew Golden the last time we saw the Packers, and he's also had some games this year, specifically in Week three, where he essentially just.

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Speaker 2: Played that Jaden Reid slot role.

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Speaker 1: If that happens again this week, maybe he scored some fantasy points. The Bengals have seen the sixth highest adjusted slot target share in the league when that number overall at wide receiver is twenty first for Cincinnati, meaning teams are targeting their wide receivers out of the slot a lot more when they face the Bengals, so maybe Wix sees more volume than we're expecting. Calvin Austin is highly likely out this week. The Steelers don't have a reliable number two receiver, but I would imagine we see more Roman Wilson than usual.

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Speaker 2: The matchup the game environment not very.

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Speaker 1: Good, but if you want like an insanely deep sleeper, keep an eye on Wilson to play a larger role in that offense. Don't forget he's just a year removed of being a Day two NFL Draft selection. Now. It sounds like Juwan Jennings could go this week like I talked about earlier, but it seems less likely for Ricky Piersoll. Even though DeMarcus Robinson ran in front of Kendrick Bourne last week. I'd imagine Bourne gets more run this week given how he performed and Tampa Bay, like I said earlier, with Juwan Jennings, it's not a bad matchup at all for wide receivers in passing attacks in general, so let's add Bourne to the list. Ryan Flanoy was another player who came on last week despite running fewer routes than the other players on his team, but he might be rewarded as well. We have to keep an eye on Cavante Turpin's injury because if he does go this week, which doesn't seem that likely right now, it makes Flanoy an even riskier start. But the Cowboys get a Panthers team that's more neutral as a matchup, and Dallas has a twenty six and a half point imply team total. Flinoy's coming off a game where he had a thirty two percent target chair. I think there's a chance he sees a decent target share in this game too, based on what he did last week.

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Speaker 2: Now, Taikwon Thornton isn't seeing as.

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Speaker 1: Much work with Xavier Worthy back, but hear me out because I think he might be an okay play this week. Thornton has only seen target shairs of five point seven percent and twelve point five percent over his last two games, but he scored eight point one and twelve PPR points, one due to a touchdown one because he can generate these big plays. His average depth of target last week was twenty five point six yards. That might be big against this depleted Lions defense. Detroit has seen the highest percentage of attempts that they faced travel twenty or more yards through the air this year across the entire league. In other words, teams are throwing it deep against them.

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Speaker 2: So Thornton in a game that's projected to be high scoring, he might be able to come through with.

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Speaker 1: A big player two. Now, moving on to tight end Theo Johnson, he has to get a shout. Not only is the Giants wide receiver room depleted, but Johnson has seen target shares of twenty five percent and eighteen percent over his last two games. His row participation rates there's still not quite as high as I'd like to see them, but he might be able to get by on sheer volume against Philadelphia because it is a tough matchup, but there could be enough looks there. I talked about Michael Mayer on the fifteen Transactions episode, and he works in this Tier two. There's not a ton of data to talk about here. This matchup against Tennessee is actually kind of mediocre on paper, but he was a good prospect. He could step in and be that team's top tight end with Brock Bauers out and without studs across that lineup, Maybe Michael Mayer sees some volume. And then finally, Jake Tunges the forty nine ers get a Bucks team that ranks the fifth best matchup for tight ends by justin points a lot, and Tungs hit season highs in target share and.

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Speaker 2: Route share last week.

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Speaker 1: With Ricky Piarsal likely out and obviously George Kittle being out, he should be a reliable streamer once again. Now on defense, this week, we got the Patriots against the Saints, hoping that New England can play defense like they did last week against the Bills. There's Jacksonville against Seattle, though, like I've been saying with Jacksonville, let's not assume they can just keep generating all these turnovers. Their pressure rate is not that that great. It's just a really tough streaming week. And then my go to streamer this week has been Vegas. Tennessee's a top six matchup for defenses by justin points allowed. They've given up at least two sacks per game. They also have an implied total that's well under twenty points, so I think Vegas at least has.

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Speaker 2: A floor for you.

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Speaker 1: That's it for today's show, though thanks to all of you for listening. If you had subscribed to the Late Round Fantasy Football podcast. Make sure you are by starting for it pretty much anywhere podcasts can be found, and follow me on Twitter and on Blue Sky at Late Round QB. Thanks for listening, everyone one. I'll be back in your ears tomorrow with the weekly Mailbag episode.