Friar Territory: Yu Darvish's Plans, Luis Campusano's Outlook, Gavin Sheets' Position and More

00:00:07
Speaker 1: The plan for the Padres rotation after officially signing Michael King, and we have your first ever Padres mail bag. Hi everybody, I am Marty Kaswell. That is Kyle Glazer here on Friar Territory. We are part of the Foul Territory networking boy. We have a lot to get to before we jump into the holidays. Kyle, how are you today doing?

00:00:28
Speaker 2: All right? Marty? We've seen the Padres get a little busier here toward the end of the year, and as we've discussed, this is around the time AJ Preller and everyone involved really starts to get cooking. You'll remember, of course, the big U Darvis trade after the twenty twenty season right after Christmas, followed by the Blake Snow trade the Joe Musgrove trade. So I'm sure that while most of us will be relaxing over the holidays, inevitably I feel like we're definitely going to get an email or a text or breaking you know, tweet about a big trade going down on December twenty eighth. I've got like at least five to one odds on.

00:01:00
Speaker 1: That wonderful Okay, just so you know, when we were at Michael King's press or was it last week? On Friday I corndered to J Preller afterwards, I said, listen, can you give us a little bit of a break. You are you going home for the holidays?

00:01:13
Speaker 2: You know?

00:01:13
Speaker 1: Are you going back to New York to go see your family? Can you just can you give us some time off? Can you give us a break? And he refused to answer that question. So I completely agree with you. All the media, if you cover the San Diagopogis, if you cover J Preler, make sure that you keep your alerts on, identifications on, bring your laptops, bring your microphones, because I have no doubt there is something cooking. So we'll see, we'll see that, we'll get there. But yeah, you're right, December twenty second. I just feel like there's more to come. I don't think it's going to be a quiet off season into the new year, because that's not how a J.

00:01:44
Speaker 3: Prewler operates. So we'll see.

00:01:46
Speaker 2: Definitely not. But we have a lot more to talk about in terms of what's to come. But like you mentioned, I'm very excited. We have our holiday mail bag. We did a mail bag Heath Bell and I back earlier this season. But it's one of those things. With so much happening with the podres, we didn't get a chance to really do them as frequently as we'd like. So this is our Christmas gift to you watchers and listeners, our first holiday mail bag with Marty Caswell. I'm going to go ahead and get us started with our first question, John Gordon, loyal listener, always appreciate John's engaging with us. Do you believe Scheldt was the reason Campusano didn't get a fair chance at AB's in twenty five and will that change now that he's gone? Marty, you and I talked a lot about Louise Campasano, the lack of opportunity and consistent at bats. I know my thoughts and conversations I've had about this. Where are you on this in terms of how much of it was a product of Mike Schild.

00:02:35
Speaker 1: I don't think that Campusan. I don't think Mike Schilt wanted to play him. I don't think he wanted any part of Louise Campasano. I think this is something that wasn't just about Mike Schilt. I think that was also an issue with with Bob Melvin, who, by the way, a former catcher if anyone give the most of a catcher, it might be Bob Melvin. I think there were some frustrations with the pitching staff as well. And I'm just thinking of a comment that Mike Shilt made at Rigby Field right when the Padres postseasonsters came out and he was asked about Louis Campasano, and he made it very clear that the only reason that he was on that team with the Padres was because this was all Aj Preller's decision.

00:03:10
Speaker 3: He made sure everyone knew.

00:03:12
Speaker 1: I want no part of Louis Campusano, and I don't think that that was lost on Campi as well.

00:03:17
Speaker 3: I think he was very, very frustrated.

00:03:19
Speaker 1: I think that he would rather he he was much happier getting at bats, regular at bats for El Paso, for the Chihuauas than he was just sitting riding on the bench with the Padres. So I do think that there was an internal struggle back and forth with Preller and Mike Schildt on Luis Campusano.

00:03:36
Speaker 3: How about you, Kyle.

00:03:38
Speaker 2: I mean, I had this conversation with a few Padres front offs officials how in the front office they wanted Louis Campusano to be up and playing You'll remember when Martin Maldonado and alisdas were just struggling so so so, so so so bad, to the point it was hurting the Padres game in the game out, and there were a lot of people in the front office who said, look, Louis campus we understand Louis Campussano's defensive limitations, but we can't have this anymore. And Mike Shilt was the one who pushed back against it. He wanted those veteran catchers leading his pitching staff and didn't care what they were doing offensively. So yes, the reason Louis Campusano. If the front office had had its way, Louise Campasano would have been up and playing earlier this season than he was then he was. In reality, he didn't play much when he did come up. That said, as you alluded to, it's not just a Mike Shilt thing. There have been three managers in a row now, Jase Tayler, Bob Melvin, Mike Schilt who just have not really trusted him behind the plate. You know. Bob Melvin I thought was interesting. The end of twenty twenty three, after the season was gone, we saw al Louis Capissano hit and develop a little bit of a rapport with Joe Musgrove. He got a little bit of shot there. But you'll remember Louis Campussano did go into twenty twenty four as the Potters starting catcher and lost the job. Kyle Goshioch eventually took over and that was that. So yes, Mike Shilt did not trust a Louis Capissano behind the plate and did not trust to met the plate either, did not want to play him. But it's not uniquely in Mike Schulp thing. This is where I've gone back to this a lot. Look, Louis Campusano physically, he can hit everyone in grease. He can hit defensively. There have always been questions about the receiving, but the bigger issue is the intangibles teams want from their catchers, the maturity, the pois, the leadership. It just hasn't been there. So again, reportedly it got better last year. Again, we need to see it happen in the majors. But if nothing else, I've said this for a while now, there's no reason for him not beginning every day dh at bats understanding the doubts even managers and onfield personnel have about him. Catching. It's not a fan thing, it's the people on the field who question it. He can hit and he just needs a shot at every day at bats and it's tough for a young player to come up and be a DH but that's the role that fits him best, and hopefully Craig Stammon will give him that opportunity. Just given the Potters' needs for offense and power which Campisano can provide.

00:05:59
Speaker 3: You think about the commercy.

00:06:00
Speaker 1: What took the Padres down last year, just the offense going down, the lack of slug and perhaps Kyle Glazer, just perhaps if they had given Campy a true opportunity in that season to once and for all show us what you've got, maybe they don't make the wildly your unpopular trade for Freddie for me and giving up some young, young, controllable pictures and Steph Koleg and Weinberger.

00:06:22
Speaker 3: Maybe it's whole different conversation.

00:06:23
Speaker 1: I know it's a lot to put on that, but I'm just thinking that's the ultimate what if.

00:06:28
Speaker 2: And again, I think you probably still wanted to acquire an everyday catcher. You felt okay giving every day bese to and working with your pictures behind the plate Campasana wasn't really going to be the solution behind the plate. He was more of a solution for the lineup if he got every day at bats. And when he got brought up and moves up for three weeks and got about five at bats sprinkled across three weeks, I mean, no one's going to be successful.

00:06:53
Speaker 3: Now.

00:06:54
Speaker 2: I think the number is actually ten at bats. No one in baseball be successful with that. So we'll see what happens again the Potter's resigned him, maybe new you know, new manager and new coaching staff, new outlook. Will see what changes. But to answer the question, yes, Shilt was a big part of the reason why Campusano was not called up, but he is not alone in the history of Potter's managers being resistant to giving him a regular playing time, especially.

00:07:16
Speaker 1: Behind the play I'm just thinking the padres d'afing real quick. I'm just thinking the padres like Dfade Martine Maldonado, and they brought him up. They brought him up in Chicago because they because Mike Shilt would do anything to not play well well.

00:07:31
Speaker 2: The other thing, and this is where you talk about where this resistance and I shouldn't say resistance. Campusano's defensive shortcomings have forced the Potters into making moves they shouldn't have made, you know, the big one. No one talks about the twenty twenty two trade deadline. Of course, they acquire Josh Hayter, they acquire one Soto, it's a huge windfall. They made one trade at the very end for a third catcher because they did not trust Les Campissana behind the plate. The Potterys traded Brent Rooker for Cam Gallagher. They wanted Gallagher as a third catcher, and with it Gayway Brent Rooker, who as we know was eventually a late bloomer. Talk about guys with slug who could have eventually helped the Potters if he'd gotten the shot. So again, I think, realistically, yes, the Potters need to find a way to do something here and not keep making moves that ultimately cost them good talent that can help them. Just to try and fix this catching situation, whether it's a backup or third catcher. All right, moving on to question two, Okay from bow Bow is the postseason more luck Brewers, Phillies and Yankees won more games, holden field advantage, more home runs, shuffle lineup cards, Brewers most wins swept Dodgers regular season changes, lineup card, Murphy referring to Pat Murphy more relaxed Kinder manager to press coaching staff swept by Dodgers in postseason. Marsling actually studied a lot and wrote a lot about during my time at Baseball America. But you know, just again, you your experience covering this game for as long as you have, what are your thoughts on it?

00:09:00
Speaker 1: I don't think post there's a little bit of luck involved, but there's I think health is the biggest thing. Health and the depth of your pitching staff and just the hot team, the hot hand. The Padres didn't have any of those things going into Chicago, major questions about their pitching, and they're oftense picked the wrong time to go into a slump.

00:09:16
Speaker 3: So I don't think.

00:09:18
Speaker 1: And by the way, I love the part about the press conference and the Kinder manager and I know Pat Murphy care you know, pizzas in his back pocket, and they had a fun little story and he story told.

00:09:28
Speaker 3: But that's not the reason why.

00:09:29
Speaker 1: That's not the reason why the Brewers were bounced or the Padres failed.

00:09:34
Speaker 2: Yeah, so there's a lot to unpack here. So I want to start with a few things, right, some of it semantics. Luck has always bothered me because when people refer to what takes place as luck, it takes away from the performance of the players. From the players who go out and do their jobs and execute a high level and ultimately beat they're really really good counterparts, you know. I think back to the Ties. The Diamondbacks went in and beat the Dodgers, swept them, and everyone's like, oh, it's just luck. No, I covered the tooth. The Diamondbacks came out and beat hell out of the Dodgers. Their offense went to work on that pitching staff. Give the Diamondbacks credit. Wasn't luck they want they beat them. So I think it's one of those situations where I think it's important to give credit to teams for going out and doing their jobs and exec a high level. That is work, that is talent, that's performance, that's not luck. Where the luck comes into it is. Yeah, injuries were a big part of it, right, Sometimes guys just I mean, freak things happen, Guys going down at the wrong time. Yeah, that's the luck portion of it. And this thing we talked a lot about I wrote a lot about this during my time. Baseball America studied extensively. There are things teams can do to put themselves in the best position to win in the postseason where it's not completely luck. First and foremost, you have to be top half of Major League Baseball and payroll to win in World Series period. We've studied this extensively since nineteen ninety two. The only team that wasn't to do it was the two thousand and three Marlins. As much as we talk about efficiency and dollars per war, all on and on, not, the fact of the matter is to acquire both the stars and depth needed to win a World Series costs money period, end of discussion. We can talk about all we want about these small market teams, the Rays, the Brewers, you know, the A's when they were competitive, They're not going to win because they're not spending enough money. It's that simple. So that's first and foremost. Secondly, you have to have an offense that's top ten and run scored eleven years in a row. Now, you have to be able to score and score a lot to win. It's not just about pitching. You have to be balanced. We've also seen the last six years, you have to be top five in the majors in home runs and this one's a little bit of a looser correlation, but still all these things. So again, does this mean that every team that's top half in payroll and is top ten the majors and scoring is going to win a World Series? Of course not. But the World Series winners will come from the pool of teams who are that, and we see that consistently. So there are certain elements of your team that you have to have, and the teams that have that, that's the pool of teams that win a World Series. So yes, there's an element of luck involved, but you also need to have certain check there's certain boxes you have to check to really be a World Series contender, and we see that year after year after hear that who wins thinking.

00:12:08
Speaker 1: So much of last year that it's the complete lack of flug that did the Padres in in the postseason. I know that, Mike Schuld and listen, you need to execute, you need to go hinder the little things.

00:12:16
Speaker 3: Right, correct.

00:12:17
Speaker 1: But and Sheill used to love talking about the power of friendship innings. That's not gonna get you far man, when you're playing a team that can mash and has some pitching.

00:12:25
Speaker 2: So yes and no, right, because it's both. So I want to be clear. I've talked about how teams need to be top five majors in home runs, but I need to go back and look at my study. It's in one of my files here, but I believe it's eleven of the last fifteen World Series champions were also top ten the majors and hits. So it's both. You have to hit for average and power. People talk about this trade off when you look at the teams that win, it's both. You have to be good at both. And again, yes, the Potters lack slug. They were also eighteenth in the majors and run scored and have won the lowest on base percentage in baseball. So this was an offense that was just not good enough independent of just the slug. I mean, there are a lot of elements here. They not Early in the season we saw them being able to manufacture runs and score it. They stopped doing that. They stopped running the bases aggressively, they stopped coming up with good situational heading. So you know, in terms of what did them then, I mean, I before the series of mistart, I said, yeah, the Cubs are going to win this series in three games. The Potters are terrible on the road, which again is another factor to be You have to have a winning record on the road to be a World Series winner. We've seen that for fifteen years in a row, and the office just wasn't good enough. Realistically, this was a the Cubs were the better team, they were at home. They just beat the Potters. This wasn't a Potterish you know, the Potterish shortcomings weren't new. The Cubs were the better team and they beat them. So again, I think overall, just to kind of wrap up because I'm monologuing way too long, there are things you have to have in place to be a World Series contender. It's not just luck, like I feel like some people like to randomly assign it, which is not correct.

00:13:49
Speaker 1: So anymore for any more for the mail back, and I do want to mention if you have any more questions, even I don't think we have any more shows this week, but any any questions you guys have, send them to us at prior to dratory at Marty Caswell, Kyle Blazer, and we will answer your questions on the next one on the on the next show.

00:14:06
Speaker 2: Absolutely all right. Last and final question this one from Clippers SD lovely throwback, love the old logo. There. Who plays first base to the Potters next season? Marty. We've talked about this right now. It's Gavin Sheets, and even though he struggled at times at first base last year, he is a first baseman by trade. If you give him, you know, every day reps over there, he can play the position.

00:14:28
Speaker 1: I know Manny Machado made a case for having Ryan or Hearn back. I don't know if that's going to be possible. I think it could still be Jake conin fourth. I don't know that they're going to move him. I know we've spent endless time talking about the idea of trading Drake Cornenworth, given his salary and given teams looking for such a versatile player. But it wouldn't surprise me if Cronenworth is back with the Padres and he is your first baseman moving forward.

00:14:51
Speaker 3: Where do you think, Kyle?

00:14:53
Speaker 2: I think that would be the least optimal situation, just because we've talked about the Potters needing to add offensive stump and the best way to do that is to bring in another first basement or if Sheets is your first baseman, you know, create every day at bats for at least Campusano DH. Really the optimal outcome would be they bring in another first baseman who can who can really thump. You know, if Jake Corona Work moves to first base, okay, then your second basement right now it might be Sun Moon Song, who are not sure is in every player? It doesn't really solve your power problem. So I think realistically the best situation for the Potter is, given their current roster, would be Sheets as your everyday first baseman, campus On is your DH. But the best possible outcome would be for them to make an addition. And that's where we've talked all about their payroll situation. With the Michael King signing with the Sung Win Song signing, fangrafts Now has the Potters projected payroll at two hundred and twenty million dollars this year, last year a two hundred and eleven million. Again, the numbers are living and you go to Cots Baseball contracts, they have this year two hundred and fourteen million, last year two hundred and eight million. So but the overall ballpark is the Potters right now are about six to eight million dollars depending on your source, over last year's payroll, and they've said they're going to try and keep their payroll to the same level as last year. So for them to make they're already over and to make more additions again unless they surprisingly boost payroll, which is always a possibility, but it's unlikely given that they're exploring a sale. They would have to move someone, they'd have to move some salary to go make an acquisition.

00:16:22
Speaker 3: You still think Jay Crenilworth is the most likely to be moved.

00:16:25
Speaker 2: I do, just looking at the salary, looking at you know, what the Potters can maybe do to kind of find some different options. But again, nothing's out of the question when it comes to AJ Preller. We know this. Nothing is ever out of the question.

00:16:39
Speaker 3: You're exactly right.

00:16:40
Speaker 1: And I know we spent a lot of time last week talking about the idea of Nick Pavetta. Just real quick, Kyle, anything you took away from And I know AJ Prebler doesn't tell you really anything, okay, but I know on Friday I asked and listen, last time we were here, we talked about tatis, trade rumors, anything on Nick Pavetta, And one thing he did say during his press or is you can't have enough starting and he kept saying the plan moving forward is you know it's gonna be Michael King and Nick Pavetta. You have Joe Musgrove coming back, and he talked about the need for young, controllable pitcher. What do you think on Paveta, do you think that there's a likelihood that he could still be moved?

00:17:16
Speaker 3: That's my male bad question to you, Kyle.

00:17:20
Speaker 2: It would have to be a blow him away kind of package. The Padres understand what they have in Nick Pavetta. They have a talented, i would say, frontline pitcher in the sense he showed he could pitch that level last year. Again, the track record isn't there, but he showed he can do it last year. Who not only is able to give you quality starts, but give you deep starts. We saw him go seven, we saw him go eight. We saw him be the guy that when the Potters need to stop a losing streak, he was the guy who go out there and he was your wind day guy. If you needed seven, you know, seven innings, one run, he gave it to you. So for the potters to move him. It would have to be again for multiple young, controllable players ready to play in the major leagues right now, and other teams are generally hesitant to give that up for someone who could be a free agent in a year with Nick Povetta having his opt out, So that's going to be the push poll here. Do we get to a point in February where a team that really needs starting pitching lost out on all of its free agent targets and gets desperate and is maybe willing to pay a higher price. Possibly, but again it's going to take a lot to prime Nick Privetta from the Padres. It could happen again, It's just we have to wait and see. I think it would be later in this offseason, after the free agent market has thinned out and keep you're looking around saying, oh crap, we need help and this is our only option right now.

00:18:43
Speaker 1: Do you anticipate any huge moves coming just in baseball overall over over the next week and a half or can we go ahead and I'll just breathe and take some time off and turn off our phones.

00:18:51
Speaker 2: There will always be big moves. I think we are going to start to see some of the more high some of the Marque free agents.

00:19:00
Speaker 1: The bigger names, the Baschets, the Kyle Teckers, guys like that, going.

00:19:02
Speaker 2: Off the bad challengers. I think probably within the next two to three weeks, I don't see any of these guys remaining free agents into February. After spring training starts like we saw with Bryce Harper, like we saw that was insane. Yeah, yeah, I remember covering a Brave spring training game when the news broke that Bryce Harper signed with the Phillies. So I think we'll see them within the next two to three weeks. We'll start see some of the big guys come off the board, and then when that happens, we're going to start to see the middle tier for agency really start to pick up.

00:19:29
Speaker 1: Two quick things, Kyle, before we wrap this Before, before we wrap this this thing up, I'm just I wonder if we're gonna get resolution on you Darvish's future in the coming weeks. By the way, he was there at the at the press conference for for Michael King, and I think Michael made a very funny comp not a funny comment, but he mentioned how Darvish actually sat in on a meeting with his agent and he was really really impressive, right, so I wonder maybe maybe he's getting feet wet for them. For the next step is aj Prellers. I don't know, as a special assistant assistant whatever. Go scout Japan tigns some players. But I just wonder if we might get resolutions sooner rather than later on you Darbash. And my next question is on Michael King, Just what do you get about this deal with you know, the opt outs, what he can make, but especially with the idea that there could be a work stoppage a year for now.

00:20:19
Speaker 2: Yeah, look, I mean that's something that affects everyone beyond this Michael King.

00:20:22
Speaker 1: Right.

00:20:23
Speaker 2: On the one hand, every team, you know, players aren't paid during a workstoppage. I think it's important to understand. You know, people need to understand players are paid their size during the season. If there's no season, they don't get paid. So, you know, on the one hand, that's something to say for certain teams like oh, you know, they're not going to have to pay out the full amount of the salary, but they're also not bringing the gate revenue, which depending on the team, you know, between tickets, parking, food, you know, in stadium, merch for the posits, every like thirty minimum, you know, well, not minimally, I say most teams it's about thirty to forty percent of their of their revenue. Depends on the team, depends on the situation suation. But if any business lost thirty to forty percent of their revenue, they'd be in dire straight. So again, in terms of the lockout, it's it's for all players, right, we just have to wait and see what's going to mean. I think realistically the Potters are doing the right thing, which is trying to put their best foot forward to win in twenty twenty six, because, as we've talked about, the possibility exists of an extended lockout in twenty twenty seven, and then by the time twenty twenty eight comes around, Machadaw and Bogart's from their age thirty four seasons. I'm sorry, it would be their age thirty five seasons. Then. You know, as we've discussed, there are exceptions, you know, the Freddie Freeman's, the Justin Turners, the JD. Martinez is their exceptions. But on the whole, the majority of position players fall off a cliff hitting their age thirty five season. In the post steroid era, so understanding that trying to be as competitive as they can be for twenty twenty six is the right move. This was a good first step to doing that.

00:21:53
Speaker 3: I like it. I like it.

00:21:54
Speaker 1: That was a lot of fun, all right, Kyle, I read this was a lot of fun the very first holiday mailbag, and this will continue into twenty two twenty six. I already received a question about Manny Machado and the idea of moving him one day to first base, but we'll save that question for the next Padres mail bag. I am Marty Caswell. That is Kyle Glazier. Thank you so much for watching us here today on Friar Territory. We are part of the Foul Territory TV network.

00:22:17
Speaker 3: I need some gear.

00:22:19
Speaker 1: I have my eyes on that gray, bluish hoodie that I want, so I will be sending you my orders soon.

00:22:24
Speaker 3: Kyle, appreciate you. We'll talk soon.

00:22:26
Speaker 2: Sounds good. Have a great holiday, everybody,