586: Week 12 Sleepers

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Speaker 1: This is the Labor Podcast with your host JJ zacher Retha j J. Zacher Reson. What's up everyone, It's JJ Zachereson, the editor in chief at Fandle and at number fire dot com in this episode five hundred and eighty six of the Late Round Podcast the many shows that are part of the FanDuel podcast Network. Thanks for tuning in. We've got earlier games than usual this week, so I wanted to get this out as soon as I possibly could. That's why it's dropping on Wednesday rather than Thursday. Regarding last week on this show, though, I think it was a decent one for the Sleeper Show, but not everything went right. Like Daniel Jones was a bad deeper streamer, but he wasn't my top streamer. At least. Most of the twenty five to fifty percent roster players actually didn't pan out very well. Deontay Forman didn't see the game script that I was hoping he'd see, Tyler Conklin didn't take advantage of a great matchup, and Robbie Anderson only scored eight PPR points. He did have a twenty two percent target share though, so the process wasn't that bad for him. I made a very, very big mistake by saying that Kirk Cousins was more of a borderline start and Wayne Gallman, who didn't really like on the show that much. But Wayne Gallman didn't see nearly the kind of workload that he could have seen without Corderrell Patterson. But as usual, there were some good hits too. Tua was a fine streamer, Jamison Crowder had a nice day in a good slot matchup. Adam Troutman was great, and Marquez Boaldez Scanling had one of the best games of his career. And Emmanuel Sanders and Zach Moss didn't do a whole lot, and I had both of them as sits. Now, I do want to address one thing about this show really quickly, especially as we approach the Fantasy playoffs, where our start sit decisions are even more important. I go over my hits and misses at the start of each episode because I think it's important to be transparent. I don't ever want to be the analyst who just focuses on the hits and ignores the misses, because that doesn't help any of us get better. I could sit on here and talk about throwing Javonte Williams into your starting lineup. But I just don't think that's helpful. I want to dig deeper with these picks in order to help more people out. So, yes, I'm going to miss a lot on this show. I'm talking about players on this show that no one wants in fantasy football, and since we're talking deep plays, the players I talk about are not automatic starts. There have been some people who have been angry at me on social media over the last couple of weeks because they started a player from this show over a more established player, when I never said to do that. This show is about information and it's about finding players who you may want to start if you're in a pinch. Now, as always, if you have a very specific start sick question, if you listen to the show and you have a question about this show, you can reach out to me on Twitter. I'll gladly answer, or you can tune into my Start sit show on Fandel's YouTube channel every Sunday at noon Eastern. I answered literally over one hundred start sick questions on that show. Now, before we get into sleepers this week, as I said yesterday, Fandel is partnering with EA Sports to bring you this week's NFL Sunday Million Contest entered. The NFL Sunday Million Marquee Contest presented by EA Sports Madden NFL twenty two this weekend and could be for your chance at a share of the one and a half million dollars prize pool. Simply build your best nine player roster while staying under the salary cap and follow along as the game's unfold. Kickoff is right around the corner, so head to fandle dot com and get in the game today. For more details is at fandle dot com or download the Fandle Fantasy app. Eligibility restrictions apply now. This first tier, as always, is players that are rostered in twenty five percent to fifty percent of Yahoo leagues, and one quarterback who's in that group who I like as a streamer this week is Jimmy Garoppolo. He's actually averaged over nineteen Fantasy points per game over his last four and he hasn't scored fewer than fifteen points in over a month. The forty nine ers generally take a conservative approach. That's why you see pass attempt totals of nineteen and twenty two from Garoppolo over his last two games, but they may not be able to do that against Minnesota. The forty nine Ers are only three point favorites in that game, and that game has a decent over under of forty nine according to Fandal Sportsbook, that gives San Francisco a nice team total. Minnesota is also not a bad matchup. They've been the friendliest team to wide receivers and adjusted points allowed this year, and they've been the tenth friendliest team to quarterbacks. So Jimmy g given the offense around him this matchup. In his recent performances, I think he makes sense if Sterling Shepard doesn't go this week. I really don't mind Kidarius Tony. I know the matchup doesn't look good on paper because of how well Philadelphia's defended wide receivers in fantasy, but they'll give you the underneath stuff. That's where Tony can do work. But he's rostered in a little over fifty percent of leagues right now, so instead you could look to his tight end, Evan Ingram. Ingram's just been getting some cardio recently on a football field. He's running by far the most tight end routes for New York, but he's averages four targets per game over his last three. I think he could see more volume this week given the matchup. Philly is third and adjusted target share allowed to tight ends this year and they're first and adjusted points allowed. That means we should expect Ingram to be a little bit better than usual this week. Another tight end streamer, Dan Arerold. Yes, I'm gonna go back to Arnold after he burned absolutely everyone last week. The good news for Arnold is that last week he still ran the second most routes on the Jacks. Now there's no Jamal Agnew, so there's some potential to see a little bit more volume. But more importantly, Jacksonville gets Atlanta, and Lanta has been a pretty average matchup for tight ends this year, but it's at least a matchup where Jacksonville, just as a team in general, might be able to move the ball a little bit better than they typically do. We have a larger sample size of Dan Arnold seeing twenty percent target share game. After twenty percent target share game, the peripherals are still there for Arnold, so I think he's fine as a streamer and then on that same team as Laviska Chanault, I talked about Chanold on the ten Trend Show, where I noted that he spent more time in the slot last week because of Jamal Agnew's injury, and honestly, the slot is where he belongs. From weeks one through four, which is with DJ Shark for a large portion, Chanal played eighty two percent of his snaps from the slot according to Pro Football Focus. Since then, the numbers dropped to thirty three percent. Also seen his target share per game drop by about three percentage points without Jamal Agnew. I think we see Chanlt in the slot more and Atlanta has been an above average matchup for slot receivers this year. It's tough to put a lot of faith in the Jags offense, but at least there's reason to be more optimistic about Laviska Schanolt now. And then the final player I guess players in this tier is Ty Johnson because spoiler alert, I was going to talk about Tevin Coleman in the next tier of players because we just don't know for sure how his backfield is going to be split without Michael Carter, but I'll just talk about the situation in general here. Coleman played as many snaps as Ty Johnson last week, he actually out touched him. I would expect Coleman to probably take on more early down work, and maybe that's more attractive to you because the Jets actually have a beatable opponent this week in the Texans. Not only is the spread close at just two and a half points, but Houston's allowed the tenth most adjusted Fantasy points to oppose running backs this year. I just think Ty Johnson offers more upside. He's already been catching passes out of the backfield, and he'll probably see at least some early down work as well, so he'll get the higher quality touches for fantasy more consistently, and he also is less likely to be game scripted out. Both players aren't necessarily optimal plays despite this matchup, but I know a lot of you are in trouble at running back. Coleman might be easier to trust in the standard league and then tie Johnson in PPR, but I think in general, Johnson's just a little bit safer. Okay, let's officially move on to this tier, which consists of players rostered in ten to twenty five percent of Yahoo leagues, and let's start with Cedric Wilson. If Ceedee Lamb doesn't go on Thanksgiving, Cedric Wilson should be in store for about a twenty percent target chair. In Week eleven against Kansas City, without Lamb for half of that game, Wilson tied Noah Brown for the second most routes run for Dallas. He saw about seventeen percent of the team's targets. Dallas has a nice implied team total in this game, and Wilson would be an easy way to get a piece of that offense as long as Cedee Lamb is out. I just don't know that at the time of this recording. Now, I was thinking about going Russell Gage with this next pick, but I'm pivoting to Kendrick Bourne because I trust this situation more and that's not something I expected to say at the start of the season. Bourne was a wide receiver for last week after scoring nine PPR points, but he once again hit a fifteen percent target share for New England. He's averaged a target share per game of eighteen and a half percent over his last four games, when that average was eleven percent across his first seven. Now he gets Tennessee, a team that's allowed the third most adjusted fantasy points to wide receivers this year. I think Bourne is sort of in that wide receiver four discussion once again this week, so I can understand how or why someone could use him. Jordan Howard is expected to be out against the Giants this week, and that's good news for Miles Sanders, but it's also good news for Boston Scott. The Eagles are averaging almost thirty one running back rush attempts per game over the last four and only one running back Jordan Howard back in Week nine against the Chargers. Only one running back has exceeded a fifty percent running rush are in a single game. Howard saw thirty one percent of the team's running back rushes this past week. With Miles Sanders back, and because Philly's been splitting this backfield up, I'd expect Boston Scott to see a chunk of that. So Scott is in that thirty to thirty five percent running back rush share range. If they continue to run their running backs at a high rate, you're looking at a potential eight to twelve carries for Scott with a target or two through the air, and I'd expect them to go with a pretty run heavy approach against the Giants because New York they rank seventh in adjusted points allowed to running backs, they haven't been very good against the run. Now, the unfortunate part of doing this show during the week is that we learn more about injuries over the weekend, so we have to play some hypotheticals. If Jerry McNichols doesn't go, Dontrell Hilliard is a decent PPR option, and if McNichols does go, I think he's an interesting option. I do think McNichols is going to serve as a team's pass catching back, but adding Hilliard right now isn't a bad idea after Adrian Peterson was released, but it's a role that could be interesting this week. Not only is Tennessee hurting a pass catcher, but New England ranks fourth and adjusted target share allowed to running backs this season. Hilliard saw twenty percent of the team's targets last week, and we've seen McNichols this season with that kind of spiked week as well. So pay close attention to reports because the satellite back for Tennessee could be a decent PPR option this week. Finally, there's the tier of players rostered in fewer than ten percent of Yahoo leagues. And let's talk about another quarterback streamer to Rod Taylor. He's still rostered in fewer than ten percent of Yahoo leagues, but he gets a Jets defense this week that's allowed seventeen and a half Fantasy points to every quarterback they faced since Week three. They're second and adjusted points allowed to the position. We saw Taylor have a nice outing last week. Despite only throwing for one hundred and seven yards in a bad weather game, he ran the ball six times. He found the end zone twice. On the ground, He's now rushed for twenty or more yards and three of his four starts this year. The matchup is there, the upside is there with his rushing, so I think he works as a deep sleeper in that same offense as Rex Burkhead, and Burkehead could now have more of that backfield to himself because Philip Lindsay is no longer in the picture. Burkehett actually saw about fifty six percent of the team's running back rushes last week, but that was Lindsay's role back in Week nine. Now without Lindsay, there's more stability for Rex Burkehead, and they get the Jets new York has been terrible defensively this year, and that's especially true against running backs. They're the best matchup for opposing backs and adjusted points allowed. If Houston can find a positive game scrip, which is actually possible this week, Rex Burkehead could pay off, and then the last deep play this week, I want to give you at least some sort of deeper Thanksgiving Day play. So I'm going to talk about Amen Ross Saint Brown. I wouldn't come close to playing Saint Brown if Jared Goff is out. I don't even think a lot of you need to come close to starting him with Jared Goff playing, but the matchup is definitely there. The last time I called Amen Ross Saint Brown out was two weeks ago against Pittsburgh, and while he had sixty one yards receiving on four catches, nothing special, that accounted for fifty four percent of Detroit's receiving yards that day, they just only threw for one hundred and fourteen yards. It was because he had a good slot matchup, and he has another good one this week against Chicago. This season, the Bears are second in target share allowed to the slot and their third in receiving yards allowed. To the slot. That's where Saint Brown plays. Saint Brown has seen target shairs of sixteen percent, twenty five percent, and seventeen percent over his last three and since Week three he's averaged a target chair per game of about eighteen percent. He's a super super deep play, but the matchup at least is there. Let's talk about some players who are rostered in seventy five percent or more of leagues who you could consider sitting this week. Ryan Tannehill is absolutely one of them. I don't know how you can trust him. He's got banged up receivers obviously, no Derrick Henry and New England's been impressive against quarterbacks this year. Aside from Week five and six, where Davis Mills and Dak Prescott finishes high end QB ones against them, they haven't allowed a single QB one performance. They've allowed just one double digit point performance since that time. That's why they ranked second best and adjusted points a lot of quarterbacks. So I don't like Tannehill at all this week. I would start Jimmy Garoppolo over him. Now. I mentioned Courtland Sutton a lot on this show, but once again, he's a sid. He's averages three targets per game since Jerry Judy's returned from injury, and he gets a minus matchup against the Chargers, or at least a neutral one at best. You just gotta wait until you see something before you can confidently start him. And similar to that line of thinking, i'd do the same with Odell Beckham. We don't know what his usage is really gonna look like in this offense, and his matchup against Green Bay, a team that's done well against wide receivers this year. It's not good enough to warrant you forcing OBJ and your lineup, so I would wait another week, don't play someone like Aman Ross Saint Brown over him, but definitely know there's a lot of volatility there. Zach Moss is still rostered in seventy five percent of leagues. I would bench him for obvious reasons, mainly in the fact that Matt Brida has been their top back over the last two weeks. And then lastly, this one's a little bit tougher, but I'm gonna say Damien Harris at least temper expectations with Ramandre Stevenson getting more work in New England's backfield. The last time we saw Harris he saw his lowest running back rush share of the season. Tennessee is a team that you can throw on better than running on them. They actually ranked fourth best and adjusted points allowed to running backs this year. Harris should see maybe ten to twelve touches, but I don't think that he's a lock for that much more. As for the streaming defenses this week, I already talked about Chicago on the fifteen Transaction show. They work, but they're now rostered in a lot more leagues if you couldn't get them, I'm cool with Philly against the Giants. And if you want to dig even deeper than that, how about Jacksonville against Atlanta. The Jags are actually top ten in pressure rate this year and Atlanta has been the best matchup for opposing defenses and adjusted points allowed. That skewed a bit by last week's game against New England, but they were still top five entering that game. Think the Jags are a sneaky start this week. That's gonna do it for today's show, though, Thanks to all of you for listening. If you get subscribed to the Late Round podcast, make sure you are by searching for it pretty much anywhere. Podcasts can be found you know for to follow me on Twitter at late Round QB. Thanks everyone, I won't be doing a mailbag episode this week because of the holiday, so I hope everyone has an awesome Thanksgiving. Enjoy family, friends, enjoy football. I'll talk to you next week