978: Mailbag - Najee Harris' New Home, Quinshon Judkins' Receiving Profile, and More

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Speaker 1: This is the latest with your host JJ zachera JJ zacher refon what's up everyone. It's JJ Zachariesen in this episode nine and seventy eight of the Late Round Fantasy Football Podcast. Thanks for tuning in. You can consume the Late Round Prospect Guide right now. All you have to do is head to lateround dot com to check it out. The guide includes one hundred and sixty pages of information on my prospect in the year two models. It's got eighty prospect profiles. There's about forty Year two profile write ups. There's rankings and more. And with the purchase, you not only get the pre draft version, beget the post draft version as well. And that post draft version it's updated the final day of the NFL Draft. It'll be in your inbox that night. I know you have rookie drafts and I know that you're ready to dominate them. Learn more about it over on the lateround dot com and if you're on the site, subscribe the newsletter too. It's absolutely free. You get content straight to your email inbox. Plus it's an easy way to support Late Round Fantasy football. But that's all on lateround dot com. Now let's get to these mail bag questions. The first questions from Twitter is from at teen Newman twelve. It says, as it stands, now, do you like Jalen Warren or Naji Harris Moore Steelers may add running back depth, but I assume Warren now has the lead role. So I asked if this was for redraft or for dynasty, and the person responded and confirmed that it was for redraft purposes. Now, I'm gonna be doing a free agency podcast at the beginning of next week, so I'm not gonna get to every free agency signing on today's show, but I do want to talk about this right now. I think it's probably Naji Harris over Jalen Warren, but I actually do think it's kind of close. Now, I haven't built out my projections yet, so I can't lean on that that much. I'll be doing that over the next few weeks. But I do think it's Naji Harris over Jalen Warren right now. But I do want to talk about this a little bit further. This time of year, especially with this running back draft class, you've got to think about range of outcomes even more than usual when we usually think about range of outcomes We're doing it knowing what our limitations are. We know who the player's teammates generally are, and what that situation generally looks like. That's because most range of outcomes conversations, they're happening in like late July and August, when we're drafting our redraft teams, we're not there with Jalen Warren and Naji Harris. Warren now has Kenneth Gainwell and Cordero Patterson to fight off, which means we very easily could see the Steelers getting someone in this year's draft, and you could very easily argue that LA's competition for Najie Harris is even worse. It's Asan Haskins and Kamani Videll. So strictly based on the team today, Harris is probably in a better spot than Jalen Warren. He's this safer bet to see work. He'd be more of a bell cow and they're more question mark around the Steelers at the time of this recording too. I have no idea right now who they're starting quarterback is going to be next year, but I've been really surprised, and this is why I really wanted to talk about this I've been really surprised seeing the reaction to Naji Harris signing with the Chargers across the fantasy space. Everyone seems to think that he's like a locked in mid range RB two now, And while I do love the landing spot for him, I think context is needed. The Chargers signed him for about five million dollars in guaranteed money. That's not that much, and it's a one year deal. You can sit there and say that Jim Harbaugh really loves a running back like Naji Harris, and he specifically loves Naji Harris, and I do agree that Harris is a really good fit in this Greg Roman offense. But the money that they gave him, the commitment that they gave Harris, it's not strong at all. And meanwhile, at the very least they need some depth at running back and beat reporters. They're already talking about adding more players, adding more pieces of that backfield. Daniel Popper of The Athletic He said, quote, Harris is not a home run hitter, but the Chargers have other means of adding that juice to the running back room. Aka there's a chance that they go into the draft and they get more explosiveness. Maybe they try to replicate what we see in Detroit with the Sonic and Knuckles thing, where Naji Harris is the knuckles. Like, I know that people have to create content, and I know that it's very important to generate clicks and to generate views. I get it. I run a business too, But it's wild to me seeing all these videos and all these takes out there saying that Naji Harris is automatically now they're bellcal I actually said this on the Late Round Fantasy Football discord the other day. You can join via the Patreon, but I'm never going to buy into an elite workload, a projected elite workload for a non elite player, when there's so much that can change from now until the start of the season. Now, Kudnaji Harris walk into the twenty twenty five season and see a ton of work for the Chargers. Of course, I think he is going to see a lot of work, but I don't know if it's going to be a true bell cow workload. And when he's not the most efficient back in the world, when he's not the most explosive back in the world, that does matter. That matters for sealing purposes, and when you look at that depth chart, it's not strong at all. We're talking about Hassan Haskins who's been a journeyman and Camanie Vydell who was a Day three back last year and didn't show us that much as a rookie. Why should we assume that this team is done at running back? And look, the same thing goes for Jalen Warren. I think the difference between Harris and Warren though, is that Warren does have that floor from a receiving perspective. Greg roman offenses have not been friendly to running backs through the air. And you can sit there and say, oh, it's because he had Lamar Jackson or Colin Kaepernick or whoever. Last year with Justin Herbert they were thirty first in the league and running back target share. Really, what I'm trying to say here is that it's March. We need to be open minded to a lot of different outcomes. There's an outcome where Naji Harris does get a good workload. There's an outcome where Jalen Warren does too. But I think if you objectively look at these backfields, neither one of them look very complete. So right, now I'll probably just lean Nase Harris because I do think he's going to see some work in that backfield, and we have more of a backbone of him seeing a lot of work. But I don't think this case is closed at all. I think this can still go in a lot of different directions, and I'm definitely not ready to crown either one of these players with this awesome draft class coming up. This last question is for Patreon. It's from nkotf underscore ff. The question says, is some combination of actual draft capital and projected draft capital more predictive than just draft capital by itself, And then in parentheses it says maybe this is basically what the value conversation was during the second half of the episode from today, But just thought I would ask no, So this is not something I talked about on that episode earlier this week, which, by the way, if you haven't listened to that episode, hit pause right now, go back and listen. I've gotten a lot of response from that episode. I absolutely love it. It was one of those shows where it's a little bit different. I could get super nerdy and it resonated with people, which is my favorite kind of episode. It starts a discussion, it starts people asking me a lot of questions. But I'd been meaning to test this since getting all that data. I finally did test it at wide receiver. It made no difference raw draft capital the actual draft capital that a wide receiver saw. It was better for the model than some combination of projected draft capital and that actual draft capital. But that makes sense because when I tested the projected draft capital and did that episode earlier this week, there really wasn't that much signal at wide receiver aside from when they were big rea, which was one of the main conclusions from that show. So the other end of the spectrum there was a lot of noise. The only thing that mattered was the big reaches, which means across the overall sample we weren't going to get that much correlation, which is why it wouldn't work in the model. But here's the thing. At running back, there was some signal at either end. When teams got values, it did show up in fantasy to some degree, and when they were reaches it did the opposite. Well, when I mix in projected draft capital mock draft big board data, when I mixed that with actual draft capital at running back. The running back model actually did get better. So there's a very real chance this is going to be part of the running back model and the post draft version of the guide. A very real chance. Now it's not a huge amount, it's like a ninety ten split, but that ten percent gets enough signal to be worthwhile. And for the players who were drafted before twenty sixteen, because the mock draft data it goes back to twenty sixteen, those players are just getting their actual draft capital in the model. So like, for example, Devin Singletary, he had draft capital of seventy four overall, but his projected capital was one hundred and seventh overall, so he was kind of a reach. The draft capital number that's being used in the model right now with these changes would be eighty, so instead of seventy four, it's dropped a little bit to eighty. Now, I know that doesn't sound that significant and it's not overly significant, but for certain players there is a pretty big gap. So basically, with this mock draft data with projected draft capital, we're at a point where it could directly impact the running back model. And then on the wide receiver side, we're worried about those reaches. It's kind of cool how it all worked out. And again, I really appreciate everyone's feedback on that episode. It was a really fun one to do. This next one's an email. Actually got a question on Twitter that was really similar, but it says, Hey, JJ, big fan of your work. Thanks. Look through this year's Prospect Guide and listening to the show since discovering it last year have been some of the best fantasy content I've come across. Thank you so much. I appreciate it. I've heard you and many other fantasy and NFL analysts talk about how this year's rookie running back class is looking like a generational one, or at least the strongest that we've seen in some time, while the wide receiver class is pretty weak. It's been hard for me to reconcile this with what I'm seeing in most rookie rankings. However, your Prospect Guide identifies more elite producers and flex plays at wide receiver than running back while identifying the same number of weekly starters. Looking at your single quarterback rankings, there are more wide receivers than running backs ranked in the first and second rounds. Other rankings I've seen are similar and that generally there seem to be more wide receivers ranked highly than running backs. What does it mean for this to be a strong rookie running back class when most rankings are still recommending wide receivers to be taken over running backs at most points in the draft. Should we be reaching for running backs over wide receivers even whenankings we trust have wide receivers higher. Thanks Charlie. Okay, so there's a lot to unpack here. First, I think it's really important to not just do a one to one comparison across positions with the positional categories that I created for the Prospect Guide. For those of you who don't know, I'm now categorizing prospect scorers into six categories Elite producers, weekly starters, flex plays, benchwarmers, waiver, wire ads, and dart throws. I didn't create those with the intent to compare across positions. Just like a ninety nine score in the wide receiver model might not be the exact same thing as a ninety nine score in the running back model, those categories, they're just there to give you context about what the prospect score is actually saying about that player within his position. Second, I think is really important for everyone to know, at least from my perspective, that I look at rookie rankings differently pre versus post draft. I'd imagine that everyone does pre draft incomplete information. We don't know the actual draft capital that these players are gonna see. Post draft, we have that information. What that means is that post draft we can have more conviction. So pre draft right now, we're likely going to play things a little bit more conservatively. In the running back class, even if it's really good, can still go in a lot of different directions. We don't know exactly how NFL teams are going to view these guys, which is why my rookie rankings are set up the way they're set up right now. Like you mentioned that there are more wide receivers in my rookie rankings in the top two rounds than running backs, but five of the top eight players are running backs. They represent the first four tiers of my rankings. The most important picks in rookie drafts right now are running backs because the top five running backs in this year's class, they're the ones who are clear locks to be Day one or Day two picks. No, I don't think just arbitrarily, stopping at the end of round two is telling us anything about the quality of this class. Round two being round two in a rookie draft. Meanwhile, NFL teams are always gonna spend higher draft capital on wide receiver because it's a more important position, and draft capital correlates to how well a player is going to perform in fantasy football. So pre draft here in March, I'd sometimes rather play it safe with a Day one, a Day two wide receiver than a running back who might be drafted on Day three. Now that doesn't mean that the running back class is now overrated. The class is just really, really deep, so we don't know which direction these teams are going to go in for the individual running back. Like let's just look at DJ Giddens. I like DJ Giddens a lot or base shall Tuton, But neither player right now is a lock to be a Day two running back, and if they go on Day three, their outlooks do change. When we're prospecting analytically, the team investment is not as strong. And keep in mind too that the twenty seventeen running back line, the one that we're always comparing this class to, it didn't get crazy draft capital. I wrote a newsletter about this last week, that twenty seventeen class, from a depth perspective, it's a lot like this twenty twenty five to one. There's just so much talent littered around this class. The two production metrics that the ZAP model looks at with running backs, best season reception share and breakout score this year matches up really well to twenty seventeen. They're basically the two best classes in the ZAP model since twenty eleven, that's when the model dates back to. And just like in twenty seventeen, we don't have some outlier number of running backs projected to go in the top one hundred. I mean, we might see something change in the actual draft, but right now, from a projected draft capital standpoint, we've only got seven players, seven running backs projected to go in the top one hundred. That's the same that we saw in twenty seventeen. Meanwhile, we've had seasons since twenty eleven where eight to ten running backs went in the top one hundred. Basically, what I'm getting at here is that there's a healthy mix of high end talent with a lot of depth in this class, and that's why people are comparing it to twenty seventeen, like myself, because most classes don't have this much depth. Maybe that won't show up on day one or day two of the draft, but it's definitely there. The talent profiles are absolutely there. Meanwhile, because there's so much depth, that means that things can go in a lot of different directions. On the individual level, there's a very high likelihood that some of these running backs get higher draft capital than we're expecting. Right now, we just don't know exactly which running backs we're talking about here. Once we do, we're going to feel more confident in them, and when we feel more confident in them, we're going to rank them higher. So I can almost guarantee you that more running backs will rise up rookie rankings after the draft is over, because at that point we're going to have more complete information. The last question is another email, says HIJJ. Excited to enter other prospect season with your thoughtful analysis. Thanks. Your discussion about quin Shawn Judkins receiving profile on episode nine hundred and seventy six had me wondering whether there are any relevant examples of past running back prospects who didn't have great receiving metrics, but did have a running back in their same backfield, like Trayvon Henderson who had good receiving metrics, and specifically, whether that context can help us spot a running back prospect who may have lacked receiving work in college but then saw solid receiving stats when they got to the pros. Thanks So, after having a few conversations about the fact that the ZAP model doesn't use any rushing production metrics for the running back model, I've had some pushback, and it's almost always about quin Shawn Judkins. People seem to think that there's no way the ZAP model can like him, and I would say that before you jump to conclusions, see what the model is actually saying, not that that's what's happening here with this question. I'm just saying generally, I wouldn't make assumptions about who the model does and doesn't like without actually seeing who the model does and doesn't like. But regarding your question specifically, I think one thing to keep in mind is that Judkins didn't play with Trayvon Henderson every year of his collegiate career. He only did for one season. Now, he had some decent competition at Old Miss, but he only played with Henderson for one of three seasons, and he never reached a nine percent pro rated reception share in any season. In his receiving yards per team pass attempt never reached point four. For some context, the average best season receiving yards per team pass attempt in this year's class was point seven. Now, I have a metric in the running back model called teammates score. It looks a current season and previous season backfield competition to see if any of them were worthy enough of generating a score. That score then increases a player's prospect score. It's not a perfect metric, but it does help the model get more signal. But to reiterate, Judkins had a best season reception share below nine percent, So we'll look at all running backs who had a best season reception share below ten percent along side a teammate scorer that was non zero in the ZAP model. This dates back to twenty eleven, so we're looking at guys who didn't have good receiving profiles but did have good teammate competition, which is exactly what this question is asking. That gives us twenty one running backs, and of those twenty one running backs. The only one to have better than a ten percent target share in one of their first three seasons is Josh Jacobs. But keep in mind Jacobs had an eighty two breakout score. Judkins is at forty five. Jacobs had a best season receiving yards per team pass attempt of point five to nine. Judkins was below point four, and of course Josh Jacobs was a first round pick. Chances are that's not gonna happen for Judkins. Now I've said it before, but players who have had sub fifty breakout scores and sub ten percent best season reception shares, they basically never give us elite receiving production in the NFL, regardless of the competition that they saw in college. In the ZAP model database, we've had fourteen players below both of those marks who were drafted in the top one hundred. I'll just read you the names who fit the mold who had a sub fifty breakout score and a sub ten percent best season reception chair. Now, remember, quin Shawn Judkins is going to be added to this list more than likely, but it's Alex Green, Stephen Ridley, Bernard Pierce, Doug Martin, Lamar Miller, Nile Davis, Carlos Hyde, Jerrick McKinnon, Terrence West, Matt Jones, Derrick Henry, Deontay Foreman, Darrenton Evans, and Ty Davis Price. Of that group, Doug Martin and Jerck McKinnon, they were the only two to get to a ten percent target chair in one of their first three seasons, and they weren't a whole lot past ten percent. Now, I know that list is really really bad. That does not mean that quin Shawn Judkins' is toast. Now, admittedly, the model's probably gonna like him less than what Draft Capital says, but not to some extreme amount where he became comes a high risk player because there are other factors in the model, size being one of them, speed score being one of them, teammates score being one of them. And given the way that Caleb Johnson is trending in mock drafts right now the aggregate data, Judkins seems pretty likely to be the models RB four. What this receiving stuff just means is that I think that we're looking more at like a Jonathan Taylor usage outcome on the higher end as opposed to like B Jon Robinson, where we know that good receiving numbers are going to be there. There are many ways to score fantasy points. Judkins is probably just going to do a little bit more on the ground than other backs in this class, while maybe doing a little bit less through the air. That doesn't mean that he's some terrible prospect. It doesn't mean that this HAP model doesn't like him. It's just something that we should be aware of that's happened historically. There's always a chance that he finds a team that also doesn't care. Maybe they just want to use him as a receiving threat. Maybe he's used as a receiver more than expected. At the end of the day, everyone, this is just about probability. That's it for today's show, though, Thanks to all of you for listening. If you had subscribed to the Late Round Fantasy Football podcast, make sure you are by starting for it pretty much anywhere podcasts can be found, and know for to follow me on Twitter and on Blue Sky at Late Round QB. Thanks for listening everyone, Hope you have a great, great weekend. I'll talk to you next week.