843: Week 13 Sleepers

00:00:02
Speaker 1: This is the lad Podcast with with your host jaj zacher rethas Jake zacher Reson. What's up everyone, It's jj zach er Eeson in this episode eight hundred and forty three of the Late Round Fantasy Football podcast sponsored by FanDuel. Thanks for tuning in last week's sleeper picks. They got off to a fire start. Jordan Love and Jaden Reid had a great outing against the Lions on Thanksgiving, and then Curtis Samuel got a ton of volume against the Cowboys. Thanksgiving was great. I also called out Roshawn Johnson last week. He had a decent game. Jeff Wilson wasn't that bad either. Greg Dorg scored twelve PPR points, and the defensive streamers they were solid, but Week twelve show was not as good as Week eleven's. The non Jordan Love quarterback streamers they were very average. The Ravens passing attack was not nearly as good as I thought it was going to be against the Chargers. Kate Otten was a disappointment, and most of the running backs were pretty mediocre. Overall, there were definitely some good hits last week, but there were more misses than the week prior. It wasn't great, but it wasn't that bad either. We're on to week thirteen. It's a really, really weird week. We've got some good teams on by, and I have almost as many picks in the second tier of players this week than the first. That never happens. But we'll start off today's show as we usually do, and that's by looking at players rostered in ten to fifty percent of Yahoo leagues who you might be able to play this week. If Chris Olave doesn't go in week thirteen, which is honestly the expectation right now as I'm recording this, then I don't think I'd played Derek Carr very confidently if a laves in. Though Detroit's a pretty good matchup. The lines have faced a top ten pass rate on defense this year, and then the fifth best matchup for quarterbacks when looking at Justin Fannacy points allowed. They've been specifically bad of late too. They've given up four top eight performances over their last five games. The only quarterback that didn't get there was Jimmy Garoppolo. He's not even starting for his team anym more. It's just like, given all the injuries in New Orleans. It'd be hard to trust Carr as more than a mid to lower end QB two if Chris Alave is out, But if a Lave plays, he's more of a high end QB two this week now, if you'd rather play it safe, Gardner Minshew makes sense. Tennessee is the third worst team this year and EPA per drop back aloud, but they've been fairly average as an opponent for quarterbacks because teams just aren' in a hurry to throw the ball against them. With that being said, the Colts have a decent imply team total, and as I talked about in the ten Trends episode yesterday, they're regression candidates. More passing touchdowns should be coming, and without Jonathan Taylor in the mix, we might see a slightly more pass friendly approach close to the goal line for this Colts offense. And then the last quarterback in this tier, it's kind of a surprising one. It's Kenny Pickett. I'm high on Kenny Pickett this week, at least relative to how he's been performing. I know that he's thrown more than one touchdown pass in just one game throughout his entire career, but I'm calling it right now, I'm getting bold. Kenny Pickett has his best fantasy outing of the season this week. Arizona's a top seven matchup for quarterbacks by justin fantasy points allowed. Pittsburgh has a top seven implied team total this week according to fandals Sportsbook, and the offense looks so much better, so much more competent last week without MATC Canada. It's a rough week across the board with so many buys. But I think that Kenny Pickett's an okay streamer and I think that he's gonna throw more than one touchdown pass. Now, moving on to running backs, I'm gonna go back to Ezekiel Elliott, mostly because there aren't many running backs seeing volume who are rostered in fewer than half of Yahoo leagues. Zeke did see a drop in route participation last week. That's a little bit scary for a potential negative game script against the Chargers here in Week thirteen, But he's been in that thirty to forty five percent running back rush share range over the last month, giving him seven to thirteen attempts per game. LA is a good matchup too, at least on paper, they've allowed the tenth most adjusted points to the running back position this year. Next on the list is Samaj p Ryan. There's really a lot of volatility with the two Denver running backs not named Javonte Williams. But in Week twelve we did see a little bit more ground game work for p Ryn. He carried the ball seven times, he had fifty five yards in a score. He hit a twenty six percent running back rush are Now, I do think that people may be going a little bit overboard with p Ryn. I didn't mention him on the fifteen Transactions episode because his peripherals this past week were still not that great. He had a twenty seven percent snapshare that was actually lower than his previous two games, as was his route participation. But Denver has an interesting indoor matchup against the Texans this weekend, and p Ryan showed out last week on the ground. Maybe the Broncos reward him with more work. Now. I fully expect a von A Chan to be back this week, but even if he is, Jeff Wilson might steal a little bit of work in that backfield. Not only could Miami just ease Achan back into things, but the Dolphins get the Commanders this week and their nine and a half point favorites. Washington has a top ten defense for running backs by justin Fantasy points allowed. Wilson's obviously a much easier and smarter play when eight Chan's out or if Raheem Moster were to be out, But it's not crazy to think that gamescript could favor Miami big time in this game. That would in turn help Wilson in garbage time. Now, a wide receiver, I only have two players for you in this tier. I've got a lot more in the next one. So I'm not expecting this week's sleeper picks to dominate. They're so low rostered. But I'm doing my best here anyway. I mentioned it on the fifteen Transaction Show this week, but in that same game between Miami and Washington is Curtis Samuel. Samuel runs the majority of his routes from the slot. Miami's been a team this year that's seen a high target share to that area of the field. They rank tenth in the league and slot target share allowed. Washington's a pass heavy team, and a potential game script like this could force even more passes. That means that even an eighteen and nineteen percent target share for Curtis Samuel could yield eight or nine targets, and then I'm gonna go back to de Mario Douglas too, as long as he's healthy and ready to go. There was a concussion scare this past week, but he told reporters after that game that he didn't have a concussion, So I'm optimistic that he goes and he gets the Chargers. Douglas himself is seeing a lot of work in this Patriots offense. He scored double DIGITPPR points in four of his last five. He's averaging a target chair per game rate over this time of twenty four percent. Now, clearly New England's offense has just been terrible, so he hasn't had any spiked weeks. But he does get the Chargers this week. Like I said, and LA has been one of the friendliest, if not the friendliest pass defenses in all of football this year. Now, I've got one tight end streamer for you in this tier. It's a guy I talked about in the fifteen Transactions episode. That's Juwan Johnson. Even if Chris Olave does go, I don't mind Johnson, but if he doesn't go, there's definitely a ceiling there Johnson led Saints pass catchers and routes run this past week, resulting in a nineteen percent target chair. He ran a route on almost eighty five percent of New wark Lynd's dropbacks. It's a plus matchup against the Lions, and it's in a game where even if the Saints don't want to throw, they might have to throw. So I think Johnson without a LAVE is a high end tight end two. This week, with a LAVE, he's more of a mid range one. This next tier of players consists of guys rostered in fewer than ten percent of leagues. Because there are a lot of sleepers in this tier this week, I want everyone to just temper expectations. I know that I'm saying this over and over again, but it's easily the toughest week of the season for me with the show. But hopefully some of these picks can still help you out. At quarterback, Jake Browning is in play. I think I'd be using someone like Kenny Pickett over him, so I can't imagine that you have to dig this deep. But Cincinnati gets Jacksonville in Week thirteen, and the Jags are the six best opponent for quarterbacks and adjusted fantasy points allowed. Browning could have been better last week, but he also wasn't terrible or as bad as you'd expect from a backup quarterback. And he has decent weapons around him, and we saw a couple of weeks ago he flashed some rushing upside. He ran the ball four times for forty yards. Now, I'm not banking on a huge performance, but maybe someone could benefit from Browning if they're in like a twenty team league. A running back that you could turn to in this tier obviously a deeper play. It's in that same game, and it's Deernest Johnson. Johnson's seen running back rush yeres of twenty percent, twenty three percent, and twenty five percent over his last three games. He ended up playing almost forty percent of Jacksonville snaps this past week. Now, some of that was because Traves ETM was banged up for a chunk of that game, but they were using Johnson more even before that. Cincinnati's not only a decent matchup for running backs, but the Jags could lead in this game, giving more non ETN running backs and playing time. So Johnson makes sense as a result at wide receiver in this tier. Let's go to Jonathan Mingo. He's been playing a lot of snaps and running a lot of routes this year in Carolina's offense, but over the last three weeks in particular, he's seen target shares of twenty one percent, twenty three percent, in twenty five percent. Now, he hasn't done that much with them, of course, but he gets Tampa Bay this week. The Bucks are a bottom four team and passing epa per drop back aloud, and they've faced the fifth highest neutral script pass rate in the league. Maybe this is the week that we finally see Jonathan Mingo produce. Jalen Geiton really didn't do anything against Baltimore this past week. He caught one pass for four yards, but he ran around on eighty nine percent of LA's dropbacks and he saw a twelve percent target share. Not great, but not terrible either when you consider the offense that he's in. The Chargers get the Patriots this week, and while New England's not an amazing matchup, it's a better one than Baltimore. So I guess you could look at Jalen Geiton. Now I mentioned it all show long, but the Saints pass catchers are hurting right now, if Chris Olave and Rashid shi Heat are both out, then we're looking at at Perry and Lynn Boden as players who are gonna run a lot of routes in that offense. I personally prefer Perry, even though he hasn't done that much over the last couple of weeks. He's seen target shares are just ten percent and five percent, but his rolet participation has been high. It's a plus matchup overall from that passing attack though, So I do think that Perry's in play and Boden is two. My goodness, this is a tough week. The last wide receiver in this tier, I'm gonna go back to Justin Watson. His route participation last week really didn't change week over week. Rashi Rice was a little bit ahead of him in routes run, yes, but it wasn't by much. He only saw three targets though, for a nine percent target share. Justin Watson did. But don't forget that he had target shaars of eighteen percent and twenty eight percent in his two games prior to Week twelve. Green Bay is a pretty average matchup, maybe a little bit below average, but a player running routes and seeing looks in a Patrick Mahomes led offense is worthy of a look, especially in a week like this one. And then the tight end in this tier is actually in that same game. It's Tucker Kraft. Like I talked about in the ten Trends episode. The Packers basically just used craft this past week, the same way they had been using Luke Musgrave. It's a tough matchup against Kansas City, there's no doubt, but any tight end who has a chance to run a round on eighty percent of his team's dropbacks is someone that you should be interested in, especially this far down the list. Now at defense this week, if you're looking for streamers, you could go with the Chargers against that brutal New England offense. You could look at the Rams against Cleveland like I talked about in the fifty Transactions episode. And then there's the Falcons against the Jets, and they're fewer than one touchdown per game offense. I would say Jacksonville against Cincinnati, but they're rostered in too many leagues to get a shout here. And the same goes for Tampa Bay against Carolina. So we'll stick with those three. Both LA teams and then Atlanta. What could possibly go wrong? That's it for today's show, though, thanks to all of you for listening. If you get subscribe to the Late Round Fantasy Football podcast, make sure you are by starting for it pretty much anywhere podcasts can be found, and don't Forrid to follow me on Twitter at Late Round QB. Make sure you follow the Late Round Fantasy Football Instagram account at late ROUNDFF. And then there's YouTube as well, which is YouTube dot com slash at laterounddeff. Thanks for listening everyone. I got the Mail episode tomorrow and then another episode of Late Round Perspectives. I'll talk to you then