Late-Round Perspectives: John Daigle Returns

00:00:00
Speaker 1: John Dagel is a season long fantasy analyst that established the Run who previously worked at NBC Sports.

00:00:05
Speaker 2: He's also a repeat Perspective guest.

00:00:08
Speaker 1: He's a sick oh long distance runner, he loves Chicago, and he's always down for a good conversation. These are his late round perspectives.

00:00:32
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00:02:12
Speaker 2: Back to the show, mister Dangle, What's up? Oh?

00:02:18
Speaker 3: Is that?

00:02:19
Speaker 2: What it is? I?

00:02:19
Speaker 4: Thought you had a bigger point off the talk to make What is up? James zachereson, It is the off season, it's the June, so I still have lots of energy right now, as opposed to if you were to catch me in November around the holidays.

00:02:33
Speaker 2: It's sunny and beautiful out. That's what's up right now.

00:02:36
Speaker 1: I uh, that'll go down as the worst intrigeodcast history.

00:02:40
Speaker 2: I completely agree. So you should be thankful that you're part of that.

00:02:43
Speaker 1: You should also be thankful, Dagel. You are the second, not the first, but the second returning guest to late Round perspectives.

00:02:51
Speaker 2: Did you know that? I did not know that that is It's it's you.

00:02:55
Speaker 3: And mister Matt Waldman.

00:02:56
Speaker 1: I had Waldman on last year for a prospecting show and that's going to become a yearly thing now.

00:03:02
Speaker 3: People really dug it.

00:03:03
Speaker 1: And you know, we have two different like viewpoints and stuff on prospects and the way that we approach things, and so we brought them back. But you're you're the first, like non sort of like you know, the the Waldman thing is sort of like a I don't know how to I don't know how I would describe it. It's almost like a Super Bowl type event that I'm going to do each year, right, whereas this is more of a you know, maybe maybe your top of my list and buddies in the fantasy space.

00:03:26
Speaker 4: I'm opening for the super Bowl. I'll take that on the card, honestly. Also, I'll accept it as a compliment. But also I know how the content game works and that you probably just looked back at last year's archive and you were like, I had these guests on this at this time, and so I'm going to bring Daigel back on. And I could say that too, because so scott fish Bowl is in a couple of weeks, and last year at scott fish Bowl, I swear like that was the thing that the people approached me the most about was our episode which came which came out, but I think like a month before SFB.

00:04:02
Speaker 3: It's basically the same timeframe as this one, I think.

00:04:04
Speaker 4: And I think they enjoyed it, just because I feel like if you were to go back and listen to that episode, we didn't answer anything. We're more like bouncing questions off one another because at that time, as it is this time, there were so many ambiguous backfields that we you know, maybe we didn't even get the answer to this day on the Titans backfield.

00:04:23
Speaker 2: I'm still not sure what to do there.

00:04:24
Speaker 4: But we were talking about situations like that, and really, as opposed to any other podcast that's very confident about it, I think.

00:04:31
Speaker 2: We were both just questioning what the hell was going to happen.

00:04:33
Speaker 1: I mean, look, welcome to the lay Round podcast in general, though I really just asked questions the entire time. And I you know, I want to push the research to folks and tell people you know what I've seen and discovered, but people got to make you know their own decisions at the end of the day too. You know, I don't want to just say, hey, draft this guy, draft this guy without any sort of backbone to it. But I will say I was looking at I was looking at your Twitter researching for this, just to see if you had fiveired off any takes that we could talk about on the show. And I see you, I see you rattling people up over on the Twitter streets.

00:05:06
Speaker 2: There was one I got. I got to start off the show with this because I.

00:05:10
Speaker 1: Think I think it's I know, I think it's a good discussion to have, but it's also hilarious, the confidence at which you just threw it out there and you just and you just let it sit and.

00:05:20
Speaker 2: Then walked away. But it was here. Here's here's the tweet.

00:05:24
Speaker 1: This is from a day ago, so by the time this publishes, it'll be like three days ago.

00:05:28
Speaker 3: But it says, didn't you know what I'm getting to here?

00:05:31
Speaker 2: I know exactly which one you're about the reference.

00:05:33
Speaker 3: Yes, this is this is about Tyrone Tracy.

00:05:35
Speaker 2: I know exactly which one you're about to say.

00:05:36
Speaker 1: Yes, you said, so, there's a video of Tyrone Tracy talking about using a grip strengthener and he wants to be, you know, one of the great New York giants running back, saying all the right things in the media. Right, Tyrone Tracy a guy that that I think you liked last year. I certainly liked last year, you know. And he he he had a good season all things considered. You said in a quote tweet to this video of of Tracy. You said, quote Tracy was a and then in parentheses, significantly better prospect, especially in past pro than Cam Scattabu was at any point in the pre draft process. Only hang up were those five pesky fumbles during his rookie years possible. I want to I want you to elaborate because I think it's a really interesting take. So, like they like, are you referring to Tyrone Tracy and his work only as a running back in college? I'm assuming and seeing what he brought to the table there, seeing what camp Scattaboy brought to the table, and you saying Tyrone Tracy is the better player straight.

00:06:38
Speaker 4: Up athleticism and explosiveness is what I'm referencing to, so so there and metrics coming out of college, and how we weigh both Scataboo and Tracy as prospects at this stage of their careers going back to last year. Of course for Tracy and I don't do It's funny you mentioned Waldman now at the top of the show, because like, Waldman would be much better talking about this than me, and maybe he already did with you. But I don't know what to exactly look for and correctly pass blocking whenever evaluating running backs as such, But from everything I have seen in terms of like the actual metrics for it from Pro Football Focus, Scatibo also may be the nation's worst back in pass protection. And that's where according to ESPN's Jordan Renan. He's being used as right now on third downs. So when you look at what Tracy accomplished last year in terms of explosiveness and pass pro and receiving the ball, in my opinion, he is the outright better player than scatabo I'm curious on your thoughts on it, though, because like fantasy points, Ryan Heath, for example, is doing tremendous work right now on what I think matters the most, and that is what is relevant, what's most sticky and carries over year to year, and Tracy falls into that bucket of running backs who were very explosive but so similar to Sakwon Barkley a couple of years ago, really got held back for their offensive line like not helping them whatsoever. And maybe that's the case again this year. But Tracy showed he's explosive enough in terms of the rate in which he gained ten and fifteen yard runs that he can still make his offensive line better, whereas some running backs can't. And due to the athleticism, I'm questioning if Skataboo can do that.

00:08:25
Speaker 1: Yeah, I think it's a valid point to make, you know, I like Tracy a lot as a prospect. Like I said, he had you know, the right size, speed profile, he had really good receiving numbers, obviously having been a converted wide receiver, and so you know, last year, honestly probably look, I got plenty of stuff wrong. Probably my best in season call was being like two weeks ahead on Tyron Tracy and getting him off the waiver wire. So like he's someone that you know, there might be some bias. That's why I'm bringing all that up whenever I'm talking about this. But with that being said, you know, you mentioned looking at numbers that are sticky year over year, and what I really try to focus on is what is the market already capturing with those numbers, right? And that's why, like in the lay Round Draft Guide, when I do all my analysis, it's based on ADP expectation, because the market's going to factor some of this stuff in inherently, right, Like for instance, you know, I've talked about mobile quarterbacks with running backs and wide receivers, and mobile quarterbacks with wide receivers actually gets factored into a decent degree when when you layer on top ADP, so it doesn't matter, you know, as much when you're actually drafting as long as you're drafting these players at cost right, and so with Tyrone Tracy, I bring that up because Tyrone Tracy with middle round running backs, you want ambiguous backfields is exactly what.

00:09:41
Speaker 2: You get with the Giants right now.

00:09:43
Speaker 1: So then your question is which running back should I prefer between Cam Skataboo and Tyrone Tracy. You want receiving backs, you want guys who are in their second year, ideally in the middle rounds, they hit at a really high rate, more than rookies do in the middle rounds. You also ideally want guys coming off of these like good robust yards per out run seasons, and the reason for that is because that improves their their probability of hitting that high target share.

00:10:10
Speaker 2: There is a correlation.

00:10:11
Speaker 4: There.

00:10:11
Speaker 1: Did an episode on that a couple weeks ago, and so Tracy in that department lacks a little bit. He's not in the Chuba Hubbard, Ormandre Stevenson, you know, Jordan Mason Bucket of like really really poor previous season yards per out run. But it's the next tier up, and Tony Pollard's actually in that too, So I'm not saying that like he's doomed. I'm just saying that that's the analytical what the stuff that I'm looking at, you know, versus ADP expectation, that's the analytical red flag. But I even mentioned this in the discord on my discord like last week, that I've been buying more and more into Tracy being the guy that I'm going to be more into in that backfield versus Camp Skataboo.

00:10:51
Speaker 2: You know, I don't.

00:10:52
Speaker 1: I'm to me, it's not a backfield that I'm gonna take that heavy of a stand just because I don't know if there's gonna be crazy fantasy production that stems from it, you know, the way that like we're gonna throw darts like crazy at Jacksonville. But I do think that Tracy is the one that I prefer at the moment.

00:11:09
Speaker 4: It's also just the fact that right now you can't say anything that he is deemed as negative about any rookies. We're just in that time of the year where their ADPs are surging just based on best ball best Ball, which again, by the way, and going back because both you and I are doing a lot of season long work right now, it just gets more intense every year. How separated bestball ADP becomes from redraft ADP. ESPN just put out a mock draft. So it's the first I've been doing like high stakes FFPC drafts just to keep.

00:11:42
Speaker 2: In the loop of tiar windows or season long.

00:11:45
Speaker 4: But ESPN just put out like a mock draft, which is closer to home league that they'll see ADP. And it's just drastically wildly different as we would expect most in particular running backs being heavily drafted in the first couple of rounds.

00:12:01
Speaker 1: Yeah, there's that you get, you know, a rookie like that's why, like all my analysis has always been rookies are just great. Rookie wide receivers especially are just always great values versus ADP.

00:12:12
Speaker 3: And if you look at best ball.

00:12:14
Speaker 1: Platforms, go to DraftKings right now, and you'll see, you know, guys get drafted in a reasonable spot when they're rookie wide outs. I mean, I'll make the argument that like, you know, Mecha Buka goes too late and stuff, but like, generally speaking, rookie wide receivers are going in reasonable enough spots. And then you look at average draft position off of like Yahoo or wherever, and it's shocking to see all like like you'll look at like, you know, Trey Harris and Jayden Higgins types, even not even Matthew Gold, not even the first round guys, but the second round guys are like in the wide receiver sixties in some of these eight on some of these platforms or seventies, right where like, why would you not throw that dart at a Trey Harris in this offense where you know he's going to be starting, where you know that he can play a vertical role, Why not throw that dart whenever you're talking about him versus Xavier Lagette or something like that, right, Like it just we already know what we're getting out of the get Why would we not take the chance on the the unknown?

00:13:08
Speaker 2: Right?

00:13:08
Speaker 1: But a lot of I mean that the way the way gamers think, and it's been this way for years, they.

00:13:13
Speaker 2: Hate the unknown.

00:13:14
Speaker 1: They hate the ambiguity of it all, which is why you know, ambiguous backfields are a thing. It's why these younger players are often a thing. I mean, middle round running backs. One of the craziest things that I've discovered over the years is that middle round running backs they perform better when their previous season PPR points per game is lower. Not higher, and the reason for that is when they're when it's higher, you have to ask yourself, Okay, why did this dude have a fifteen or fourteen PPR point per game season and now he's being drafted in the middle rounds, Like, like.

00:13:45
Speaker 2: Why is that happening?

00:13:47
Speaker 1: Well, probably because there's something that that messed with the structure of his backfield. The market is telling us there's something going on with that player that he's not gonna be able to repeat that kind of performance. Whereas the unknown guys, the younger guys who don't have that much of a backbone in terms of points per game, they're the ones we actually want to target because people are like, I don't know where to place for Shad White.

00:14:06
Speaker 3: I don't know where to place.

00:14:07
Speaker 1: You know, these players who end up breaking out in a big way, and that's why they get they get pushed down draft wars and they become better values.

00:14:14
Speaker 4: That sounds like a couple of players last year, but Raheem Moster stands out, someone who you know, was a top five player in terms of points per game in twenty twenty three and then last year we get to the off season and it's just it's easy to say this in hindsight, I know, but it was pretty obvious that, you know, a thirty one year old raheem Moster coming off career highe touches and games played. It's like that can't sustain even at like an eighth round eightyp that's something we should avoid.

00:14:38
Speaker 2: So that checks out. That makes a lot of sense.

00:14:40
Speaker 1: Let's start this conversation and then we already kind of dug into some stuff, but I want to talk a little high level in philosophical before we get into player takes.

00:14:48
Speaker 2: I sent you a text with when when we.

00:14:50
Speaker 1: Were talking about this show, and I was like, look, man, it's June. We can just like fire off some stuff. People will dig it because we're we're kind of like workshopping ideas right now. And we did this last year too. You know, we're kind of work shopping ideas, we're figuring things out. These aren't set in stone, you know, player takes that we have necessarily right now, But I do think that it's important to at least have these conversations. And you're perfect for the conversations because you're a season long bro as well. But when it comes to this twenty twenty five season I want you to think about yourself in January twenty twenty six.

00:15:22
Speaker 2: The season's over.

00:15:23
Speaker 1: Okay, when we're looking back on the twenty twenty five fantasy season, what do you think is the draft strategy that won people the most leagues In twenty twenty five.

00:15:34
Speaker 4: I've been leaning on hero running back heavily, and I think that's just because the way wide receivers work and the into the first second round, and I'm sure we'll talk about that at some point. Then it really opens the door to start with a strong running back, and that depends on how you're tiering your players. But you can get Christian McCaffrey, Derrick Henry Lean on one of those guys and then tack on wide receivers from that point forward. At the end of the first round, I'm I'm still debating, like, do I want seeing like to double tap running back if CMC naturally falls, and in my opinion.

00:16:09
Speaker 2: He will.

00:16:10
Speaker 4: He will to the one twelve and home leagues every single time. And by the way, again, we'll probably get to this later, but I'm gonna build my entire person personality around one twelve CMC.

00:16:21
Speaker 2: What could go wrong?

00:16:21
Speaker 4: By the way, this offseason but yes, I'm still debating that because the wide receivers are so good at the end, I mean the fact that we can start the Lak neighbors and Brian Thomas or Nico Collin, J. G. Brown from the ender drafts. But overall, you know, overarching view, I do think here are b is going to be the way to go, and then just getting ahead of those wide receiver windows because there are cliffs, dead zones, shifts every single year. Curious to your thoughts as what you believe in terms of ADP. The dead zone for running backs is this year, but just in terms of where player tiers are falling, like there is a for wide receivers, there is a group of Mike Evans and Terry McLaurin. I want to be ahead up and make sure get the players before that because that's that seemed to me that resembles the cliff where we start getting into more AJPEX and ambiguity. And then for running backs, I think that tier comes much quicker for Kyron Williams, Josh Jacobs, Aaron Jones, that group of players.

00:17:18
Speaker 1: Yeah, I actually in the draft guide this year, I'm kind of changing my tune with the running back dead Zone. And I say that from the perspective of I think we oversimplify what the dead zone is and it can get people.

00:17:34
Speaker 2: Into trouble a little bit.

00:17:35
Speaker 1: And what I mean by that is like, so, you know, I've talked about the dead Zone plenty. I didn't create the dead zone. It was was was Gretch? The originator of the of the dead zone idea?

00:17:44
Speaker 2: Was it? Was it Gretch or I don't wanna, I don't wanna, you know.

00:17:47
Speaker 3: It probably it probably was Gretch.

00:17:49
Speaker 4: But anytime we ask who originated this idea, I assume it was Fancy, which that may go over people's heads, but like he was the you know, he's the philosophizer of our time.

00:17:57
Speaker 3: Yeah, yeah, regardless of whoever care.

00:18:00
Speaker 1: Like I certainly didn't, right, But I've been talking about it for years on the show, and you know, I've done episodes on it and all that good stuff. The problem I think with it is that I started at the baseline of Okay, the running back dead zone is real because if you look at historical ADP, there is a drop off, and usually the drop off I would use was like mid round three into round you know, like like through round six or so, like the seventh round running backs, you would get we're not that much different than like early fourth round running backs, right, And then I realized, Hey, the way that leagues are set up these days, there's so many variations that instead of looking at round taken, I would rather look at positional rank.

00:18:38
Speaker 2: Right.

00:18:38
Speaker 1: So, like if you look at RB eighteen, that's usually where you know drop off. You know, there's a little bit of a drop off after like RB twelve historically, and then there's a big one after RB eighteen, and it's the same you know through RB thirty. So basically like the RB thirty four or the RB thirty three would be giving you a similar ceiling as.

00:18:56
Speaker 2: The RB nineteen would.

00:18:57
Speaker 1: So there would be no reason to draft the RB nineteen in that scenario because you're not gaining any value in doing that.

00:19:03
Speaker 2: You can just wait.

00:19:04
Speaker 1: And so that's what the running back dead zone, you know, historically was kind of about. The problem though, is that since talking about the baseline of what the what the running back dead zone has been, I've then just gone on this crusade of like, Okay, clearly running backs are coming out of the dead zone and still being viable to some degree, Like we see it every year. What are those running backs, what do they look like? Like, what are the traits they share? All that good stuff, and then at the end of the day, it's almost like the parabola meme of like, you know, like something really basic and then like you're like an expert in it and you go back to that really basic take of what you originally had. But basically, I think it's just an archetype area, right, Like, it's just all it comes down to is not the fact that you're drafting a player at RB twenty two and that you should avoid the RB twenty two because he's the RB twenty two. It's that oftentimes the players that people are taking there are you know, guys who don't have that established backbone of like being a good prospect. They're not players who or they're players who are inflated based on previous season points per game like I talked about, or they're not young up and coming players. So really, if you remove like veterans from the data set and looking at the running back dead zone, you realize that there's really not that significant drop off that you would see younger, like able good running backs in general. And so I've kind of changed my tune in that I don't want to label it the running back dead zone so broadly because I think that listeners might take that as I can absolutely not target a player within this area of the draft, when the reality is you shouldn't be targeting certain players in that area of the draft. But that's an argument that you can make for any area of the draft, you know, Like there's there's certain archetypes that we really shouldn't be targeting that heavily in the early rounds, you know, like non pass catchers that aren't Derrick Henry, stuff like that, Like we shouldn't be going after those types of players. And so I'm not saying that like I think the running back dead zone is dead or anything like that, Like we can still label it that way, but I think that the nuance is really important so that someone who's being introduced to that topic, you know, isn't taking the wrong things away from it.

00:21:14
Speaker 4: And this probably goes back to more player takes. But your example, let's use Kyra Williams because he's someone I'm conflicted on right now, just because I weigh the range of outcomes and it could go either direction, like on the positive, on one hand, he's literally led Sean mcvay's backfield in touches and thirty consecutive appearances.

00:21:35
Speaker 2: No one's else come for him.

00:21:36
Speaker 4: All he does is shove it back in our face every single game, every single year. Despite not being explosive, despite not earning targets, he just gets it done because the loone skeleton key is touches, and like, if you're getting those touches, especially in those windows, then yes, Kien Woms can deliver. Having said that was the addition of Jarquiz Hunter, someone you've talked about throughout the off season, was that because like the Chiefs, Sean McVay is yearning for any amount of explosiveness, especially like if the Rams offensive line were to fall apart and not really carry their running back again. Perhaps so, so again, that's that's the that's a player take from it, based on like your ADP nuance. But yeah, it could go either direction. And honestly, I think the longer we are in this industry doing this, like, the more open I do become and saying yeah, it could go either direction, the range of outcomes are wide, which is why I'm taking like, rather than taking a stance, I'm taking both sides of it.

00:22:29
Speaker 1: Yeah, I think you have to. Like it's it's important. I bring it up every episode seemingly. But going back to like the Roma Dunza a Mecha Igbuka wars that I went through a couple of months ago, where you know, I essentially said that a Dunza and Agguka's kind of like a re rule in Dynasty for a Dunza. It's not that I'm saying that a Dunza loses that one hundred percent of the time. It's more of a fifty five forty five thing or a fifty one forty nine thing, or it just fit that roster particularly.

00:22:55
Speaker 3: Well, you know, to go the route that I did.

00:22:58
Speaker 1: I don't want to rehash all of that, but my point is, whenever I'm researching and looking at these players and doing player analysis, I'm trying to look at both sides.

00:23:07
Speaker 3: Like Kyrien Williams is a great example of that.

00:23:09
Speaker 1: This year, do you think that meat like spoiler alert Kyrien Williams for a second straight years on my players to avoid list right and so like like I've missed it last year, I think he outperformed expectation by one point seven PPR points per game that's ADP expectation. I don't feel as bad about last year because I had Derek Henry ranked ahead of him. So like you still, you know, came out fine if you went running back there. But regardless, like I have him again on the Players to Avoid list, you don't think that scares the crap out of me? Like I understand that he could see an eighty five percent running back rush share once again, I understand that he's a player that is.

00:23:45
Speaker 3: I mean, look the Rams.

00:23:46
Speaker 2: I sent an email blast about this yesterday.

00:23:48
Speaker 1: The Rams backfield in terms of target share over the last six years, they have had an average rank, an average rank okay, when you just average up their ranks and running back target share of thirty one to thirty two, meaning they are ranking thirty first or thirty second on average over a six year span and running back target shair. They're not using the running backs as receivers at all. So what does that mean for a guy like Hyron, Well, it means that if you have a Jarquest Hunter that gets more work, or even a Blake Korum that even touches Kyen Williams eighty five percent running back rush share last year. And it turns into a seventy to seventy five percent share. That has a pretty dramatic impact when you know that he's not going to lean on that receiving work because it's not going to be there because it hasn't been there for the last six years. So, you know, I totally get that Williams has the upside that he has, but I also would argue that there's a lot of fragility to that kind of profile when you don't have that pass catching backbone, and that to me, you know, I don't know if Williams is quite a dead zone back or he's like starting the area where you're kind of like, okay, he's not quite a hero RB. We don't feel as good about him as we do Devon a Chen or something like that. But at the same time, you know, I do think that he is this archetype of player that we generally should not be heavily investing in because it can go south. And that's where we see the running back dead zone and we see these running backs, you know, not perform up to expectation is because they don't have the attributes that we want them to have. It's not so much we can't draft any of them, because I like Breeze Hall, who goes after Kirom Williams right Like like Breece Hall to me is not a dead zone back, not a traditional dead zone back, because he has the tools and the attributes that we want out of a running back, you know, in fantasy football.

00:25:34
Speaker 3: And so that's why it's almost like an archetype zone.

00:25:37
Speaker 1: It just so happens that these archetypes are all falling in the same spot, probably based on like supply and demand and this idea like if I miss out on these top two round running backs, I got to force it and really get a running back or else I'm screwed. That's the mentality of the drafter, and that just pushes these guys up draft boards.

00:25:54
Speaker 4: And I think that's why going back to where this all started, hero RB will be the way to go for me and what we're looking.

00:26:00
Speaker 2: Back at next offseason as what one leagues just.

00:26:04
Speaker 4: Because it does seem like you can start with one of those top four five guys and that during this range of running backs we have questions about could definitely get there, like we said Brees Hall, but we certainly have lots of questions. Maybe instead we should be drafting wide receivers in that range before the cliff hits in rounds four or five and we start reaching into like the wide receiver three through fives.

00:26:24
Speaker 1: Yeah, I also think here RB is the most full proof strategy that that is not going to be as influenced by some wild things happening in a given season. Right like last year here RB was still okay even though running our RB two is dominated the way that they dominated.

00:26:39
Speaker 2: Which we we never see happen the way that it did last year.

00:26:42
Speaker 1: So, like, you know, I think that it's it's that's the right call because it's it's not only like kind of full proof in a way, but it's also this year especially really fits you know, into that into that mold.

00:26:53
Speaker 3: Let's talk about quarterbacks. Do you think that this is the year of late round quarterbacking.

00:26:57
Speaker 1: Or are you you know, are you more into the elite early round guys.

00:27:02
Speaker 4: When you say that term for your brand and our friend Richarree bars Konami code brand, it's crazy because it is, in my opinion, of the year of late run quarterback, but not what you have built your brands on. Instead, the statues like the pocket guys like CG. Stroud for example, last year the QB five and ADP, but now he's going in the later rounds like round twelve on where you can just draft him and set it and forget it, and guys like that are now falling, and so it is late run quarterback, but not for the running players Dak Prescott, for example, it's basically the opposite of what we're doing with Baker Mayfield. Baker Mayfield's coming off career high touchdown rate and points per game, Dak Prescott's coming off career low touchdown rate points per game with the extremely upgraded cast and only one year removed from being the QB five and weekly points and number two and the VP voting in twenty twenty three behind Lamar Jackson. And yet you can still get him there in the tenth eleventh round, at least when we're talking about home league. So it's the opposite direction where I don't think we're going to get much rushing up side. Drake may and Bryce Young are the two in my opinion that can push back on that. But we're still getting guys who again were top ten and EDP at their position last year, and they're just falling based on one year that they did not live up to those expectations.

00:28:19
Speaker 1: This is the perfect example of the episode I did on touchdown rates and how touchdown rates. Again, this is like the same thing as like previous season points per game with middle round running backs previous season touchdown rate.

00:28:31
Speaker 3: You actually want lower.

00:28:32
Speaker 1: Touchdown rates than higher touchdown rates because touchdown rate will regress. And so what happens is a guy like Jared Goff gets elevated into like in home leagues, Jared Goff is going to go in like the QBA to QB ten.

00:28:44
Speaker 2: Rates don't started.

00:28:45
Speaker 1: It's going to be pretty aggressive with Goff because of what he did, you know, six point nine percent touchdown rate last year.

00:28:51
Speaker 2: You know he did.

00:28:51
Speaker 1: He threw for more touchdowns than he's ever thrown for the kind of performance that he's likely not going to repeat. But even still, Jared Goff last season still did reach twenty points per game despite everything going phenomenally well for him. I mean, they might throw the ball a little bit more this year and that'll help.

00:29:07
Speaker 2: Combat the regression a little bit.

00:29:08
Speaker 1: But what you're basically describing is the touchdown rates stuff where that fluctuates. So with pocket passers, you can jumble them up usually, and there's not gonna be that much correlation between ADP and when where they're drafted versus postseason result when it comes to these pocket passers.

00:29:24
Speaker 3: So you get CJ.

00:29:25
Speaker 1: Stroud late, you know, I like Trevor Lawrence late too, you know, you get Dak Prescott later and then earlier you get the guys like Baker, and Goff is the one that's easiest to go to because at least Baker scrambled a little bit more last year and has really good weapons and stuff, you know, and like, yes, there's gonna be regression, but you can at least see it be combated a little bit. Even like Joe Burrow, Like I think Burrow is the QB five in fantasy, but I also don't think that there should be such a small gap between Jalen Hurts and Joe Burrow and.

00:29:53
Speaker 2: ADP, you know, like overall ADP.

00:29:56
Speaker 1: So like I'm factoring in Joe Burrow regressing because I think he will regret in terms of probably past attempts and touchdown rate. But even still, like I think Goff is just such an easy go It's like Jordan Love when people were drafting Jordan Love last year, high and like we see these guys get elevated based on their previous season numbers. One to your point, you can just get these pocket passers later and they have just as good of odds to hit as some of those guys that are being drafted early.

00:30:21
Speaker 4: Whereas last year, though, Jayden Daniels was a fringe KB one but someone that was very easy to target for the rushing up side and home leagues. Bo Nicks was also someone that was very easy to leave in the last round with especially in super flex leagues. You can group him in a crop of three guys you could draft. Drake May was obviously tougher because there was a window where we knew he would start, but we knew at the beginning of the year he would not. So again it's different because these guys, these other ones were drafting now. Jordan love Tua is also falling late just because he was injured. Even though he was very good when he was on the field, he was injured. Who cares, And so these guys are now falling late, and so we're taking advantage of just the ADP dipping this year. Drake is still like my favorite amongst that he's the easy go to he's so easy. Yeah, not to mention like we're talking about upgraded offensive line, upgraded surrounding cast and receivers, and Warren Sharp's third easiest schedule as well compared to last year's tenth toughest schedule for the Patriots. New play callers all around, Josh McDaniels, who's actually been extremely efficient only when he's been in oc in terms of like EPA per play, so their offense at least gets it done in terms of explosive plays. Yeah, Drake May is just the simple one. I'll probably be stacking quite heavily this year.

00:31:30
Speaker 3: Yeah, I've ever even doing that on in Best Ball, like crazy.

00:31:32
Speaker 1: The thing is, like again, people think that I'm a late round quarterback only guy.

00:31:37
Speaker 2: I'm not.

00:31:37
Speaker 1: It's always been a game about value, and things have changed a lot over the last five and six years, five to six years to where I think that the big four are fine to draft. I have no problem with people because very like not only are they giving you some points per game edge and a lot of people will do that vorp analysis and say, hey, these four quarterbacks are going to be x number of points better than the baseline players, so therefore this is their value.

00:32:00
Speaker 3: So now let's compare that to the running.

00:32:01
Speaker 1: Back versus his baseline player wide receiver versus and so on and so forth. The thing that never gets factored into those equations, those warp equations, that drives me nuts is predictability. And with these quarterbacks, you have to factor in that we know who those quarterbacks are going to be. Josh Allen has been a top two quarterback for like six straight years, you know, like that has to count for something. It can't just be, hey, he's this many points better than his baseline when we have a far far more predictive player than we do at other positions when it comes to quarterback. That's why the Big Four and Josh Allen, Lamar Jackson, Jayden and Daniels and Jalen Hurts are all really attractive in fantasy.

00:32:40
Speaker 2: Like I, you know.

00:32:42
Speaker 1: Maybe this has just been a long con for me that I've just been trying to trying to flip the script a little bit and get this to work in my favor.

00:32:48
Speaker 3: But I think going with one of the Big four is still fine.

00:32:51
Speaker 1: The problem that I have is more the middle round guys like I won't be drafting Patrick Mahomes this year.

00:32:55
Speaker 2: I don't think at least and you know, at least heavily.

00:32:57
Speaker 1: Right, because what change to make me think that they're gonna get vertical again? What really changed that offense to make me think that they're gonna unlead? And of course he's a candidate to have an outlier touchdown rate season and be totally fine. But that's the kind of player that I just am not going to be overly, overly heavy on. But at the same time, I'll still rank him within the quarterback within quarterback rankings, I'll probably still rank him where he's being ranked. You know, it's just that people will draft him higher and way too close to the Jalen Hurts here than they should.

00:33:28
Speaker 4: The two that I think, buck your trend and correct me if I'm wrong. Well, you agreed with me on Dak Prescott right because of the low touchdown rate?

00:33:35
Speaker 2: Middle round guy, Yeah, I love I love to I tell yeah, I think that is easy. Please don't knock all my Dak Prescott shares right now. Now, I think Stroud.

00:33:42
Speaker 1: I think Stroud is really interesting too, because he's again I so late hit him.

00:33:46
Speaker 2: The three.

00:33:47
Speaker 1: There's there's four guys I think I mentioned on the touchdown rate episode it was Dak Stroud, Stafford and Gino where the four pocket passers who could flip just based on touchdown.

00:33:57
Speaker 4: Rate this year, Gino's also barring in a seventeen game starter that's not being treated as one someone you can just leave, like the last round with I think because Chip Kelly and Ashagenty suggests the Raiders will be run heavy, the Raiders defense does not suggest they'll be run heavy. So I do like getting in on Geno Smith for sure. The other one you didn't mention, just because the environment change you don't even have to squint to see it is brock Purty love. I love based on all the injuries, Like if you look at Aaron Shotts works at FT and fantasy the forty nine ers, Like, again, you don't even have to look at the work. You should, but the forty nine ers clearly suffered the most injuries on offense, more so than any other team. Thus their environment changes entirely this year. And best of all, like we see as you as you mentioned bad performances the next year, all those players dip like the Falcons last year, who all did return ADPs, even Kirk Cousins had his moments. Then the forty nine ers all their ADP's have dipped in rooms as well this year.

00:34:54
Speaker 1: Yes, I love forty nine ers. Perty also was running more last year, you scrambled a lot more, and that it.

00:34:59
Speaker 2: Was his best season.

00:35:00
Speaker 4: People don't believe that, but I would argue it was his best season as a professional.

00:35:03
Speaker 1: Yeah, yeah, I'm I'm in on Purty as well, and like obviously I'm still gonna be in on Kyler, you know, and spot Like, I think he's fine because the mobility and I like all the second year guys. It really comes down to, I think Burrow shouldn't be as close to the elite guys as he is. I think Mahomes like like Burrow to Jalen Hurts right now in terms of like Yahoo ADP because I pulled that for the draft guy to kind of reference who should be targeted and avoided and stuff. It's only five spot overall spots away from Jalen Hurts and drafts, which is crazy to me when we know that there's not as much volatility. Of course Burrow can get there, but when we know there's not as much volatility with his profile as Hurts because of the of the mobility stuff. But yeah, mahomes Baker, Jared Goff' I'm literally like like eleven spot quarterback spots difference in ADP versus my rank with Jared Goff. To me, there were like genuinely, and this is gonna sound crazy, but genuinely, what is the difference in upside? Okay, I think I think Off will have a better chance to match you know, QB eight to QB ten, you know, this year. But I'm talking about like becoming a true top six quarterback in fantasy football, a difference maker, someone that you can confidently start each week and you like starting him each week.

00:36:14
Speaker 3: What is the difference between Jared Goff and JJ McCarthy.

00:36:16
Speaker 1: Ooh, I like that take in terms of upside, right, Like, like I'll take I think I think McCarthy's gonna run more. He's in an environment that we've seen quarterbacks thrive. The wide receivers and the weapons are just as good, if not better. I don't know why that would be a hot take. It seems like a pretty mediocre take to me, but it'll be it'll be taken as very hot because people look at quarterback.

00:36:38
Speaker 3: In my opinion, the wrong way.

00:36:39
Speaker 1: They see a guy like Jared Goff is a better chance to be QB ten and QB nine than jj McCarthy. But I think McCarthy has a better chance to be QB six or QB five, and that's what I care about more.

00:36:50
Speaker 4: It's similar to like, it's always easy to push back against players when everything goes correctly and they still like, can't get the job done, can't win your league. Like Najee Harris, I think is always the guy to reference, Like, leads the league in touches, and he was still the RB nine and weekly points. It was clearly easy to fade him the following year at the end of the first round. That's Jared Goff like coming off career highs, including with thirty seven touchdowns, and yet was still only the QB nine in points per game.

00:37:19
Speaker 2: Ye still barely got there.

00:37:20
Speaker 3: That's what I'm saying.

00:37:23
Speaker 4: Bryce Young over his last seven starts, I believe it was averaged four carries and twenty two rushing yards tacked on initial four rushing points per game. Like that can easily usurp Jared Goff in a given week just for the additional carries. So yes, we can replicate again, this is your brand. I shouldn't be saying this. We can replicate that production quite easily. Yeah, it's just an arbitrage thing.

00:37:44
Speaker 1: And so look, I know that if GoF has a great season, I'm going to get destroyed. But I think this is a good process play. I think this is the right way to look at the position. All right, let's move on to wide receiver, because I'm looking at my players, at target my players to avoid for the draft guide. I've been writing that up, trying to get this draft guide finished, you know, July first release for anyone who hasn't pre ordered yet. But I'm looking at you know, how I come up with the targets and avoids is that I look at my rankings and I compare it to ADP and just see, like where I'm generally feeling versus the market, and wide receiver seems pretty efficient this year, and it seemed kind of efficient last year too, Like it's the one position where I feel like, you know, I can make arguments very easily either way for these guys, and the position is so strong that I worry about missing out on, you know, a big winner from the from the position, just because there's a lot of talent at that position, so I'm curious, are there any players in like the top thirty or so that you just seem to disagree on from.

00:38:41
Speaker 2: An ADP perspective Right now?

00:38:42
Speaker 4: At wide receiver, No, I'm not kidding. It's crazy again, and that's why we referenced it at the top of the show.

00:38:49
Speaker 2: But I don't know.

00:38:50
Speaker 4: When it comes down to home leagues again, Christian McCaffrey's probably going to be there, so I'm going to go there, but I really don't know, like do I double tap running back to get ahead of that and then draft wide receivers or because that's terrifying and passing on all of these dudes. Brian Thomas, Nico Collins, AJ Brown, Malik Neighbors, Like these guys will be there. Do I want to pass on all of them? I don't know, especially when we're talking about second year breakouts. Nico Collins finally breaking out last year Nico Collins. By the way, it's it's like a small sample we drag in Sports Info Solutions data established a run for like our target perroute run calculator to go on and off splits, which I personally love, especially when we're doing like when I'm writing the weekly matchups along with Silva, the on off split calculator is amazing for me, and like it's it's a pretty large sample without Stefan Diggs available last year, but with Digs off the field, Nico Collins had a.

00:39:42
Speaker 2: Thirty seven percent target share. Yeah, like this is sick and like you you tell me.

00:39:46
Speaker 4: You know, We've talked about it on my show at ETR in the past, but like Jalen Knowle and Jayden Higgins, they are not the arc type that Nico Collins does.

00:39:55
Speaker 2: You can't replicate what Nico Collins brings this offense, and so.

00:39:58
Speaker 4: It's pretty wide open with a we think a bounce back CG. Stroudier and a new offensive coordinator that yeah, I just don't want to gloss over these guys. So I don't know how I'm handling it just yet, because again I can't poke holes in the top thirty players. The players I mentioned that I believe or the cliff drop off this year and Mike Evans and Terry McLaurin starting there. They they don't go until the third or fourth round. Maybe that comes up a little bit in home leagues, but right now they're not top thirty and eightyps.

00:40:28
Speaker 2: So I just don't know how I'm gonna handle it just yet.

00:40:31
Speaker 3: Yeah, it's it's it's bizarre.

00:40:32
Speaker 1: And for the record, Nico spoiler alert also a player to target for me this year, and the guide just based on his pre I mean his previous season peripherals were out of control. Last year, his second his target prout run, his yards per out run, everything was was insane. And now you get, like you said, Higgins, who I think is a better complimentary piece than an actual you know, Alpha Jalen Nole, who I love as a slot, but he's a slot. You know, he's not gonna be playing the same kind of role that Nico's playing. And even if it's Christian Kirk this year, then it's it's the same kind of deal, right, And so I love Nico. I love the Texans to kind of bounce back in the passing game. I think Nico is an easy easy I don't know if we would even consider a dark horse just be the wide receiver one in fantasy this year, right, like just a player who could just be as good as the other guy. Like, I think that's in his range of outcomes. So I'm with you there, and yeah, I mean, like when I'm looking at this top thirty, top forty wide receivers in the ADP, the guys that are on my avoids list are players who I'm only like two to four spots different in my ranking versus where their ADP is. Like one example is Garrett Wilson, where Wilson's wide receiver thirteen by ADP, I have him at wide receiver sixteen. So all of these guys are like soft fades, but they're not full blown fades like I. And again, Garrett Wilson to me is like the Kien Williams of wide receivers, where I understand the outcome obviously of Wilson dominating and having a great season if he gets a thirty two two percent target share, which is possible, you know, if he just gobbles up everything in that offense, which is very possible and in his range of outcomes. I'm just looking at the other side too, you know, with Wilson with my ranking, but even still like the wide receiver thirteen versus the wide receiver sixteen, especially when you look at tiers, it's not really that significant of a different when they're all tiered up together. Anyway for me, and they're they're relatively interchangeable. I just think wide receiver is efficient this year. You know, I do think McLaurin is kind of a fade and he probably will be more in home leagues just because of what he did last year and that thirteen touchdown mark not being as sustainable. But like again, I'm I don't think he's gonna burn you, Like there's no obvious players like that that seem like they're just going to destroy you.

00:42:40
Speaker 4: Like I want to get higher on AJ Brown for example, but yeah, you can't. I don't know how to get higher like last year AJ Brown. And this is why we use rate stats, not counting stats, because the Eagles did not have the passing volume at times.

00:42:55
Speaker 2: But like a J.

00:42:55
Speaker 4: Brown was one of only two receivers in the entire league to command at least thirty one percent of his team's targets. He was He had less than a twenty six percent target share and only two games all year. All he did was be the wide receiver one, not one aid to DeVonta Smith, but one similar to Tyberk killover Jalen Waddle in past years, not last year. But again, like, how can I push aj Brown any higher when Thomas and Neighbors are right there.

00:43:19
Speaker 2: It's just hard.

00:43:20
Speaker 3: Yeah, it's really hard.

00:43:21
Speaker 2: It's really hard.

00:43:22
Speaker 1: Do you have any sleepers at running back this year, running wide receiver this year that that folks might be able to get middle or late rounds.

00:43:28
Speaker 4: A couple and it's more about I don't even know if they're sleepers, more about misunderstood stupid word. Misunderstood ADPs like Juwan Jennings. I think should be higher when someone like proves he can win your league. And that does not go like in the first four rounds, like even where she Rice is there after a serious injury, where she Rice is there, Jennings is now like still round seven or eight. Even though last year would deeble off the field, he had a forty one percent target share. Crazy, he had that overall wide receiver one week against the Rams. I believe it was like he proved he's a wide receiver one. It kind of came out of nowhere to sleep, but he was a true wide receiver one and commanding volume. So love Juwan Jennings in the middle round, late round is another one. I'm confident it in Marvin Mims just because we talk about season long leagues were especially in that range. You're looking strictly for upside, and who has more upside than what he showed last year in MEMS at least four targets in seven consecutive games to close the year, including the postseason. Sean Payton also mixed him in for eight carries in that time, so perhaps his role, you know, grows larger despite the addition of Pat Bryant, who I don't know how he fits in that offense. The one question mark I have that I am drafting a lot of, but it's more about again being in this industry for so long and now I'm saying, maybe I got this guy wrong, and I can cross my fingers here. What are your thoughts on Keon Coleman in his second year?

00:44:49
Speaker 1: Yeah, I mean, look, I can see the upside in the potential. I mean again, I talked about ambiguous backfields with running backs, but ambiguous wide receiving corps are a thing too, And we would rather have, you know, players who don't have alphas on their team because that allows them to potentially emerge on that team and you can.

00:45:06
Speaker 3: Look at do they have an alpha?

00:45:07
Speaker 1: Just look at their ADP because generally that's gonna say, you know, what kind of target chair that player.

00:45:11
Speaker 2: Is going to have.

00:45:12
Speaker 1: I think it's interesting because to me, I think Khalil Shakir is somewhat of a value. Just if you want someone who's just a good baseline player, like just a solid let's just get a wide receiver three, you can maybe give us wide receiver two production, right, just not you know, probably not a top ten to fifteen guy, but probably a you know, could be a sixteen to twenty.

00:45:30
Speaker 2: Five type player if things hit right.

00:45:32
Speaker 1: But yeah, I mean, like I think Coleman has a role in the team, like a very obvious like this is what he can do for us. He can make these splash plays that we saw last year. I do wonder how they fit in Josh Palmer and Elijah Moore because Elijah Moore is getting.

00:45:48
Speaker 2: Actually some some buzz out of out of Buffalo.

00:45:51
Speaker 1: And I'm curious how because like, I think they would see Elijah Moore as a field stretching type, which he can do, and then Josh Palmer is obviously that kind of player too, So I wonder how that would impact, you know, Coleman's ad and stuff. Maybe it helps because it makes it more of that intermediate threat where he's probably even a little bit better at doing. But yeah, I mean, like targeting this that kind of player makes a ton of sense.

00:46:11
Speaker 4: It's funny that we're still scared of Elijah Moore, and I think we're right by the way, But at any time Elijah Moore's name pops up, I do worry he's gonna burn me. So I do get some late shares, like like when August comes around, we hear Pis Campbell's name, we know we're out on that. We've been out on that for four years now. He's an August superstar, similar to how DeVante Parker was. But Elijah Moore still has like the peripherals that we enjoy.

00:46:34
Speaker 3: Yes, I actually I was.

00:46:36
Speaker 1: I was looking at my late round Targets, Late round dart throw section of the guide, and I had Elijah Moore.

00:46:41
Speaker 3: I just kind of like list.

00:46:42
Speaker 1: Out players at first, and then I remove them if I just don't want to write about them, or if I dig into them, and I'm like eh, And with Elijah Moore, like I've been, I've been stacking more. I've thrown him in like Josh Allen stacks on in best Ball and DraftKings at times like just you know, last round kind of guy whatever, But.

00:46:57
Speaker 3: In season long, it's just it's a tough argument to.

00:47:00
Speaker 1: Make that you would draft him, like like he seems like a player that we're going to be adding off the waiver wire if anything. And then I looked at his previous season peripherals. He had a point nine yards per run rate last year, and I was like, all right, this is this Probably this is not gonna be an easy argument to make.

00:47:15
Speaker 2: It's just gonna be all vibes based. If I talk about Elijah Moore here.

00:47:18
Speaker 4: Also sidetake since we are a friendly DraftKings show, Now you can get Elijah Moore, like run him back if you're targeting Week seventeen with the Eagles, because on DraftKings specifically, it's possible to superstack the Eagles without Saquon Barkley. You just tack on Will Shipley instead in your twentieth round and cross your fingers there to that curse of three hundred and ninety plus touches and efficiency in general catches up to Saquon Barkley.

00:47:41
Speaker 3: Yeah, yeah, for sure. All right, let's move on to running back.

00:47:44
Speaker 1: We already talked about CMC a little bit, and you know Derrick Henry you mentioned and maybe double tapping running back to start the draft. But around this time last year when we did this show, I have a quote that I that I want to read.

00:47:55
Speaker 2: Because we opened up on YouTube.

00:47:57
Speaker 1: Rich Ryan does the editing for the video stuff, and on YouTube, uh, he always takes a clip from the middle of the show. There's probably a name for this in the editing world, and then throws it at the beginning of the of the episode.

00:48:06
Speaker 2: I wouldn't.

00:48:07
Speaker 1: I have no idea what it's called. Someone someone will let me know. Actually, go tell me in the comments section on YouTube. That's what you should do at YouTube dot com. Slash at late round FF. But you said this about Zamir White being an obvious fade because we both were very anti Zamir White last year. But I got to just read this because it's perfect. You said on this show quote for home leagues, We're gonna have to get the message out there that if you took Alexander Madison in the sixth round last year, you need to know Zamir White is right here wearing his Alexander Madison T shirt.

00:48:37
Speaker 2: Hell yeah, what a show, What a showman? What a quote?

00:48:39
Speaker 3: What a what a quote?

00:48:40
Speaker 2: What a quote?

00:48:42
Speaker 3: And so my question you is which running backs are are this year?

00:48:45
Speaker 2: Zamir White?

00:48:46
Speaker 4: Now I've gotten a year older, I'm not as fun Now I don't I don't have his hostel of quotes. I I also when looking over ADP because for running backs, the first two things I try to locate are the quote unquote dead zone and the guys like the Mic Davis's, the Zamir Whites of the world, who are inappropriately getting a high ADP based on what people are projecting for their touches.

00:49:08
Speaker 2: That's all what happens.

00:49:09
Speaker 4: Even though again going for Zamir White, it was very easy because even going back to high school, he was not a workhorse, very easy to buck that trend. I don't know, like you can you can correct me here, But I don't know if there's a Zamir White this year. I think my fade. I think Aaron Jones is twenty twenty four raheem mostert okay, and that he's coming off a career high three hundred and six touches and its age thirty season hit a wall over the last month of the season, including the playoffs where we averaged less than four yards per carry, and the Vikings have shown us that similar to the Packers, who they saw Aaron Jones close his career with five consecutive gets one hundred plus yards and still said we can't use or depend on this guy. Aaron Jones, don't get me wrong, was amazing last year, but again we're still talking about that not a breakout but a rejuvenation and his age thirty year with the Vikings who had finite capital headings of the drafts saying we need someone else and then going out and adding Jordan Mason instead. There are so many outs. You know, we haven't got to sleeper running backs at all, but Jordan Mason's definitely on that list for me because there are so many outs where the Vikings even use cam Akers at time to relieve Aaron Jones. Like now we're talking about a guy that they went out and acquired for relevant draft capital, who also showed he was explosive last year and can be at short yardage back. Jordan Mason can cap the upside of Aaron Jones significantly. So I think that's the player that I'm definitely going to be out on this year.

00:50:38
Speaker 3: Yeah, I think it's valid.

00:50:39
Speaker 1: And there's a trend also with middle round running backs that when they're that old, you know, when they're passed like or when they're in like year nine plus, their outcomes are usually not that great, which is not great for like a guy like James Connor. And so you know, I'm not saying that I'm necessarily fading, but it's definitely one of the red flags.

00:50:57
Speaker 4: You know.

00:50:57
Speaker 2: I kind of look at these guys as where can I poke hole?

00:51:00
Speaker 1: And that's a big giant hole that we can poke with James Connor and Aaron Jones. What about let me throw this name out there because he's someone who did not fit the mold very well with the previous season yards per out, run stuff, and we only have seen this one grade season from him.

00:51:15
Speaker 2: Chuba Hubbard. How do you feel about Hubbard this year? Hubbard is so one.

00:51:19
Speaker 4: I'm also I almost mentioned Hubbard honestly, this and this fading section. We've been discussing him in the ETR slack because the rankings were initially high and I think we've come back. We only have like a small sample, honestly, and you can give me the cause I know you have the data going back on Hubbard based on where he's going in ADP and the bucket he falls in. But like, we only have a couple games of relevant data under Dave Canalis. But we did see like only two games that Jonathan Brooks played. Brooks in that second game actually did start siphoning and eating into Chewba Hubbard's workload so much so that like Brooks led him in touches both in the red zone and inside the five yard line in that second game before he was injured. And so now with both Trevor Etn and Rico Douele on the map as well, I definitely worry about Hubbard trying to build off of this career high and carries and touches.

00:52:10
Speaker 1: Yeah, that's that's kind of where I'm at, Like I don't I'm concerned about his receiving profile. And it goes back again to the yards Pro run stuff. His yards pro run two years ago not great at all. It was like point seven knives, point seven to two or something like that. It wasn't good, right, and then last year it was point five to one. And again we can sit here and blame scheme, and scheme definitely plays a role in any data point, but traditionally that kind of running back. Historically, we have not seen a middle round running back if you count RB eighteen to RB forty two as middle round, we have not RB nineteen o RB forty two. We have not seen a middle round running back get to a ten percent target chair per game rate who had a previous season yards perro run rate under point seven since since twenty fourteen, and so Tuba Hubbard definitely falls in that bucket after having a point five to one yards perro run. That's the it's data courtesy at PFF. And if you look at what Carolina did this offseason, I don't think that they're gonna go away from Chewba Hubbard the way that the Raiders went away from Zamir White. So that's that's not my analogy. That's not my connection here, That's not what I'm saying. But I do think that the two guys that they brought in, Trevor Etn pass catching running back ric o'dowdele can be a pass catching running back and a good change of pace guy. At the very least, they brought them in to do the thing that Hubbard maybe hasn't been as effective at doing and so I could see a scenario where Hubbard maybe maintained.

00:53:35
Speaker 3: Actually, Hubbard probably will not.

00:53:37
Speaker 1: Maintain the rush share that he saw last year because last year, for the majority of the season, it was him. There was no other alternative that they could rely on at all in that offense. And so I do think that the rush share is going to drop a little bit. But I think the target share, where he had almost a twelve percent per game target share, I think that's where we're going to see seven to eight percent. And if that happens, he's not living up to ADP expectation. Like he said, he can be in our like he can still give you production and he's not going to be a player. It's like a Jared Goff right where it's like the dude is still going to give you something. He's probably not going to just completely burn your team. But we're looking for like superstars in that range, like guys who can legitimately, legitimately, you know, become league winning players. And you look at Chewba Hubbard, he's going one running back spot, two overall spots away from Alvin Kamara, who I think has already broken the mold from an age perspective and stuff, and like he's gonna he's seen an eighteen percent target share every year of his career, and those kinds of players very rarely rank outside like the top fifteen at running back, right, So Alvin Kamara is right there, Kenneth Walker is right there, who has crazy upside as long as he's healthy. So like you can envision those top six kind of outcomes for those players. Then you get to Chewba Hubbard and I just have a hard time seeing that.

00:54:52
Speaker 4: We're zooming out for our analysis. But if we want to zoom in and just like use the one game sample where the Panthers that are relevant back again, in that second game where Brooks was healthy, he even out targeted to of Hubbard three to zero, because in my opinion, they were, like you said, yearning for a pass catching back, which they went out and got. So yes, I will group in Hubbard with Aaron Jones, two players I'm certainly concerned about.

00:55:16
Speaker 1: Yeah, what about your sleepers at the position this year? And again I don't want to let's just say dart throws at the position.

00:55:21
Speaker 2: Well, yeah, running back is always tougher.

00:55:23
Speaker 4: He's That's why I struggle with the term sleeper because it's really about the touch windows and the moment a starter comes out. Oh suddenly, the sleeper running back who was literally unusable in Fantasy now I can use him.

00:55:34
Speaker 2: And I think the.

00:55:34
Speaker 4: Perfect example of that is a quote unquote sleeper for me, and that's Zach Sharbonay just because got a terrible runout as a rookie, which is how he was treated initially last year, and that he played like amazing run defenses in the Rams, Cowboys and forty nine Ers and his three starts for kennth Walker. Then last season Walker goes down, he gets a start, Everyone's not that excited because what he showed in the past, at least sharbon Day was not efficient. And then sharbon Ay comes out and his six starts averages nineteen Fantasy points fifteen, carries roughly four targets per game, showed that he is a workhorse who is also uber efficient. And so Charbonne is someone who with a new offensive coordinator, we also have this ambiguous opportunity that maybe his role grows even more, which is what I love and trying to find this mid round sleeper running back just a workload that we weren't prepared for and so I'll group in Sharbonney with Jordan Mason as two guys I'll probably be higher on.

00:56:26
Speaker 2: Yeah, I like that. I like that art.

00:56:27
Speaker 3: Do you have a favorite out of the Jacksonville backfield?

00:56:30
Speaker 4: I do not tank Bigsby was the significantly better player, and I think I'll still take a chance on him. But facial Tuton is so explosive that it could be like ISAA Garrindo, which is another sleeper, but again Christian maccafery has to get out of the way, but it could be like that where he's just a walking explosive even on like five carries. Yeah, all right, let's look at tight end really quick. Hold no, no, no, no, don't you dare pass on that? Give me your opinion on the Jags backfield.

00:56:55
Speaker 1: My opinion is I worry about Bigsby from the standpoint of his receiving ceiling right where we haven't seen him.

00:57:04
Speaker 2: I mean, he has like a career yards perrow run of like zero point four or something. It's it's really bad.

00:57:09
Speaker 1: And so I do think he's probably the best like early down runner that they have. And I liked Bigsby as a prospect. Actually, I remember him coming out, he was the zapmodel. Liked him, and so I think he's the best like early down runner that they have. And then you look at Etn. But but I'll say this, I'm probably going to be more into I'm gonna be most into Twoton of the three. That's because I know that rookie running backs have that ambiguity and that unknown and that upside from that perspective. You know, Etn is coming off his worst season as a pro, and really I know that he was fine in Fantasy two years ago, but even his his secondary numbers were not that strong two years ago.

00:57:45
Speaker 2: They weren't very attractive.

00:57:46
Speaker 4: When you get out performed by a guy who was nicknamed Tanking Bigsby after his rookie year.

00:57:51
Speaker 2: Rightow, that's not a good thing.

00:57:53
Speaker 3: Yeah, yeah, I mean, look, I.

00:57:54
Speaker 1: Can see I can see ETN being fine, But I think that if you're looking at like the impact weeks of the season, the late you know, late season stuff, and the guys who could really be league winners in the playoffs, like Tootin, would be the.

00:58:06
Speaker 2: Guy that I would lean on.

00:58:08
Speaker 4: I'm in a dynasty league where we just cut down to eighteen players and I had to cut. I didn't have to, but I cut Formandra Stevenson because, like Travis ETN, I viewed it as, how does this guy.

00:58:20
Speaker 2: Impact my lineup whatsoever?

00:58:22
Speaker 4: Yeah, like he's gonna give me a twenty four to thirty six finish one week, but other than that, he is not going to win anything for me.

00:58:30
Speaker 2: So like Stevenson to me is Travis Etn.

00:58:32
Speaker 1: Yeah, yeah, that's fair. All right, let's talk about tight end? Are you in or out on the elite guys? And then because it does feel like last year was sort of like a transition year with ADP and how it was a little bit more jumbled. Now we finally have this like, okay, clear tier at the top. You get three tight ends that most people feel comfortable with. Are you comfortable taking them given the opportunity cost? And then also are there any late round tight ends then that you'd be eyeing.

00:58:58
Speaker 4: I am in on elite tight end, but not the way everyone else is. I do think brock Bowers ADP is going to separate itself enough from Trey McBride, and I think Trey McBride could outscore brock Bowers, which I think is kind of a hot take right now, and so I will be on on McBride and Kittle and getting them because I think their ADPs are far depressed based on you know, bounce back stats as opposed to Brock Bowers, who was just outright good.

00:59:27
Speaker 2: Yea, that shouldn't count as a negative.

00:59:29
Speaker 4: But the fact that McBride like led in all the purperles you look for target share, route participation. He just didn't score touchdowns. That's okay, that's the same thing that happened to George Kittle or in early in his career couldn't score touchdowns despite being used heavily. So I love McBride in like the third round of Home Leagues, and then.

00:59:46
Speaker 2: George Kittle as well.

00:59:47
Speaker 4: Like we talked about with the rest of the forty nine ers. You know, we didn't dive too much into Christian McCaffrey. We talked about the wide receivers so far. But George Kittle also is suffering like the forty nine ers in terms of depressed ADP. And it's just wrong because he's aging like fine wine, especially when you remove Deebo Samuel from the field. Last year, Kittle had a He's made four full starts with Brock Purty it's only four games, but four full starts with Brock Purty without Deebo Samuel, and he's averaged a thirty three percent target share in fourteen points per game. Like, he's a walking tight end one who's now going in the fourth and fifth round. So those two guys is what I'm building elite tight end strategy around.

01:00:26
Speaker 3: Yeah, I think it's fair.

01:00:27
Speaker 1: Someone asked a mailbag question last week about like being concerned about brock Bauers. My answer was, don't be concerned about brock Bauers at all, like as a as a player, and it was a Pete Carroll thing, and you know, I'm like, okay, but Pete Carroll also had Luke Wilson.

01:00:41
Speaker 2: You know, it's not like he had brock By.

01:00:42
Speaker 1: And the only time that Pete Carroll had a good tight end was Jimmy Graham and he was a top ten tight end basically every year that he was there in Seattle. And so, you know, I kind of brushed that away and aside, I didn't really talk about Bowers at cost though, and so I do think it's a it's a good point to make that, like mind taking Boers, but it is difficult the wide receivers we talked about earlier, and if you had to take him over some of those guys, that's where it just gets really really difficult to do.

01:01:10
Speaker 4: Also, quick side note, based on that question, it's proof that we are always going to have jobs in this industry, because it seems like we go full circle every three years or so. In terms of I thought everyone we had already solved that positional target share like doesn't matter to an extent, Like you can't say this coach only targeted this tight end when this tight end was Rob Bronkowski, so of course.

01:01:36
Speaker 2: Right coach target.

01:01:38
Speaker 4: I thought we already were done with that, but these questions mean we're never going to be done with it. Also to that point, that's what's happening right now with route spaces and routes like with ESPN Open Score for example. Yeah, good, good, you know, a good stat to use, but not relevant fantasy whatsoever. And I thought we already proved that we solved that when NFL Advanced Data came out out with like spacing and routing, it proved to not be sticky at all for fantasy. And yet we're going back to it with open school, which makes no sense at all.

01:02:07
Speaker 2: Yeah, yeah.

01:02:08
Speaker 1: I mean there's a lot of stuff out there from like a data perspective that doesn't matter, and I try to focus on the stuff that obviously does, you know, And then you know, like the personnel that I wrote a newsletter blast yesterday talking about three coaching trends and opening up the blast and the intro talking about how there's so much noise to coordinator data. Because there is so much noise to coordinator data.

01:02:29
Speaker 3: You have to have a really long and the three the three.

01:02:32
Speaker 1: Coaches I talked about were Sean Payton, Sean McVay, and Greg Roman, who are all three guys who we have a massive sample size on with a lot of and it was all running back related. It was you know Roman's pass catching usage with running backs, and you know Sean Payton's pass catching usage, and then obviously Sean McVay is in the same way.

01:02:49
Speaker 2: I talked about that one earlier.

01:02:50
Speaker 1: But like, you have to look at all of that with a grain of salt, and you have to layer on personnel. When I see Sean Payton go and cycle through a lot of different running backs, including the last two years in Denver where they didn't have anything significant and they're still top five in the league and running back target share.

01:03:06
Speaker 2: I care about that when I.

01:03:07
Speaker 1: See Greg Roman's teams consistently not target their running backs much out of the backfield at all, and people think that Greg Roman is this like amazing, amazing coordinator for running backs. We look at like Frank Gore and how he did with and without Roman. Greg Roman has never had a top ten backfield in points in Fantasy points scored throughout is ten years of being an offensive coordinator, which is crazy because that's not the way that folks generally view a Greg Roman offense. But a lot of that is just driven by the fact that they don't target their running backs that much.

01:03:38
Speaker 3: And they didn't last year either when they had JK.

01:03:40
Speaker 1: Dobbins leading to the pack and then the Sean McVay thing I talked about earlier. I mean, they've just not targeted their running backs whatsoever out of that eleven personnel package. And so there are some trends that I will, you know, lean on and say, Okay, this is a thing. But when you look at, if anything, that Pete Carroll thing told me that when he has a tight end, they actually are I mean, Jimmy Graham was sort of past his prime when he got to Seattle, and he was still a tight end one every year he was in Seattle. So, if anything, it makes me feel better about Brock Bowers because when he had a tight end, he used that tight end he was good. And so I think Bowers is gonna be fine. It's just that I think that there's a much much I know, there's a much much larger opportunity cost in drafting him than the other two guys in the Big Three.

01:04:21
Speaker 2: It sucks at the game we play. We feel bad about drafting good players.

01:04:24
Speaker 4: I know, all we should always make this easy for ourselves and go draft good players like Brock Vowers.

01:04:29
Speaker 2: Yeah, yeah, that's not the game unfortunately. Yeah.

01:04:31
Speaker 1: I mean, I'm certainly still gonna be getting some Bowers, but I will admittedly have a lot more Trey McBride though, again based on ADP.

01:04:39
Speaker 3: Yeah, and then lay round dart throws at the position.

01:04:42
Speaker 4: Not many, honestly, but rooms right now are allowing Tucker Kraft and Jake Berguson to fall pretty heavily to like athletic specimens, especially Kraft, who already showed they have a ceiling when they stay healthy. Plus Craft is interesting because already a top twelve tight end in points per game, which doesn't mean anything. That means you scored a couple of touchdowns last year, whatever. But he does have an opportunity in that it is an ambiguous room and we're taking shots on wide receivers Matthew Golden, Dontavian Wicks included. But Kraft is involved enough and there's no competition in that. Perhaps the winner in all of this is Tucker Craft at a position where it's very volatile. So I think targer Craft is like my favorite one to grab from the tenth round on.

01:05:23
Speaker 1: Yeah, I've been buying a lot more into into Craft, you know, over the last month or so. I think that there's a chance it ends up being a target in the draft. Guy, when it's all said and done, all right, before I let you go, one bold prediction about this upcoming season.

01:05:36
Speaker 4: We didn't even get to dive into it much, but I believe Christian McCaffrey will outscore Saquon Barkley in Fantasy this year.

01:05:44
Speaker 2: There we go.

01:05:45
Speaker 4: Maybe it's not a strong take, but when you get to your home leagues, I believe he will fall to the end of the first round for you, and the past two full seasons under Kyle Shanahan, McCaffrey's been to RB two and RB one in points per game, and he's the only at running back to average twenty one one points in multiple seasons in that time. He played two games with Perty last year out touched Jordan Mason, the forty nine Ers backup at the time, forty two to three in those games, and that was when he was injured. Not to mention, the Niners have Warren Sharp's easiest schedule in the league this year, so I will be all in on the forty nine Ers, but Christian McCaffrey as a league winner in particular, I love it.

01:06:20
Speaker 3: I love it. Dagil, thanks so much for your time.

01:06:23
Speaker 1: Man.

01:06:23
Speaker 2: It's always great to talk shop with you.

01:06:25
Speaker 1: Let everyone know what you're working on, where they can find you and where they can.

01:06:29
Speaker 2: Read your work.

01:06:30
Speaker 4: You are working on your intros. I am working at establishtherun dot com, where I currently just put out all of our best ball content, including late round stacks for Draft Kings. Again, DraftKings is fun right now because that's one place in particular you can superstack the forty nine Ers, the Dolphins, and the Eagles with five different players from their offense and just newke them all together and then it's about season long time for us. So by the time you're pumping out that guide on July first, Silva and I will be going back to the basement working on our team previews together. So it's that time of the year.

01:07:03
Speaker 2: It is, it is, It's awesome. I'm excited for it.

01:07:05
Speaker 1: You can find me on Twitter atlete round QB Blue Sky's well same handle. Make sure you're pre ordering the draft guide that will go up by five dollars on July first when it launches, so make sure you get in on that.

01:07:17
Speaker 3: Otherwise, everyone enjoy your weekend and thanks for tuning in.