Daybreak Weekend: Housing Outlook, Europe Culinary Trends, Australian Eco

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This is Bloomberg Daybreak Weekend, our global look at the
top stories in the coming week from our Daybreak anchors
all around the world. Straight Ahead. On the program, we
look ahead to how commodities may fare in twenty twenty six,
along with an outlook for the housing sector. I'm Nathan
Hager in Washington.
I'm Stephen Carolin Brussels. So we're thinking about the culinary
and cultural trends in Europe to watch in the year.
Aheads, I'm Doug Christner looking at the possible timeline of
a rate hike from the Reserve Bank of Australia.
That's all straight ahead on Bloomberg Daybreak Weekend on Bloomberg
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Good day to you.
I'm Nathan Hager, and we begin today's program with commodities,
a sector that presented a mixed but for the most
part strong performance in twenty twenty five. So for more
and what to expect in twenty twenty six, who better
to be joined by than Mike mcglowan, senior commodity strategist
for Bloomberg Intelligence. Happy New Year, Mike, and what a
year was for gold trading at records? Is twenty twenty
six going to be another year to be a goldbug?
Unfortunately? The lessons of history, Nathan say, the momentums upward,
but history suggests this is where overweight long new positions
typically underperformed, particularly for enduring pairents. To give you one example,
Gold's cousin silver, it's gone. You know, they both had
the best year since nineteen seventy nine. In nineteen seventy nine,
silver's high was thirty two. This year's low was twenty eight.
That's almost fifty years. So that's the kind of risk
you have with gold getting this level. So I think
momentum probably gets it towards five thousand, but a normal
back and fill of a high velocity where I like
this can actually get it to thirty five hundred. So
I put frightening in gold in the same sentence, because
I'm just absolutely frightening when gold grabs alpha like it
did this year beats everything, particularly beta the stock market.
I get worried, so to me, what commodities are telling
us this year? It's been based on a whole hum
broad commodity market. The Bloomberg Commodity Index is basically track
the S and P five hundred. It's the interworkings like
you mentioned. But gold going up with this velocity probably
you know, over sixty percent and crude oil going down
about twenty percent. That disparity is the widest ever and
so it's around eighty ninety percent in two thousand and
eight extreme. The previous extreme is sixty percent. So I
really concerned what this is tying us when the most
significant ancient store value grabs alpha and the world's most
significant industrial commodity goes down.
Yeah, let's talk a little bit more about that disparity,
because to your point, we did see oil prices pretty
subdued in twenty twenty five. What do you see driving
the oil market this year?
Well, the key thing Foil to think is to look
back from the future. Next to the peaks in twenty
twenty two shifted the world order, kicked in EVS, brought
on that all that rapidly advancing technology which brings on
more supply and reduces demand, and now we're in the
downward cycle from that, so typically takes a low price cure.
So WI crude oil has high for this year is
around eighty or so. It's got down around fifty five.
I think historically the loaves have been around forty dollars
a barrel, and I think that's going to happen in
the twenty twenty six year. But it can also easily
pop the seventy dollars barrel seventy Bear markets and notorious
are sharp shortcoming rally. So the one thing I really
think we're going to have next year is a decent
amount of voweltility in all markets, particularly the stock market.
I think crude oil is going to continue heading lower,
but it's not alone, Nathan. It has It's in the
same camp as corn, soybeans, and wheat and the grains,
and they're all on the back of going up too
much much to speak, in twenty twenty two and going
down now. And that's the key thing to remember. In commodities,
they go down because they went up too much. Typically
that's less so the case in things like gold, but
particularly most notably the lasting commodities. So here's what I'm
really worried about. If CRUILL continues lower likeness, which I expect,
and we just get a little backup in the stock market,
that's a pretty significant post inflation deflationary force, which is
a matter of time. And just one example of that,
that's what's happening in China. That ten you note neiled
in China is about one point eighty three percent versus
above four percent in the US.
What about the energy demand from artificial intelligence? Does that
play anything into the oil market right away?
Start with silver and copper. When you think of energy
demand electricity, transmission and conductivity, the two top commodities for
that in terms of metals are silver and copper. And
guess what, there's some of the best performing commodities this year,
but for different reasons. So not so much worried. And
if anything for electricity, man, you tilt over to natural gas.
Natural gas is back down below four in the year,
the highest five point five, and almost every time it
gets above five, it goes back back down below four.
Why woulds the elasticity is supplying us natural gas is
one of the most significant forces in all energy particular
in natural gases. So oil is the key thing, but
oil is being replaced by technology, and that part of
that technology is what's keeping bid things like copper and silver.
But the key thing also remember a copper It was
a supply constrained year, and I think copper is the
number one wild card next year. And if it goes down,
which I'm afraid it will, like the stock market, that's
a sign of deflationary dominost of falling on the back
of crude oil and iron ore and China and bond
yields in China. So the bottom line is you have
to tilt over to China. Can they come out of this?
Meyle's paired with the significant demand pull economic recovery, facing
tariffs from the rest of the world, not the US,
I think that's unlikely next year.
So given all these dynamics, Mike, what do these moves
and commodities suggest to you about the economic outlook for
twenty twenty six.
It's the velocity to this rally in gold being the
highest in only almost fifty years, and certainly versus crudell
is a clear global recessionary trajectory. The key question is
what stops it next? Year. Now gold is clearly stretched
versus almost everything, with exception the US stock market, and
that you would expect when we have the paradigm shift
of the world's most demand pull significant importing country putting
a kabash on the rest of the world trying to
export to the US most only China. Now the rest
of the world's actually pushing back on China exports because
they're exporting deflation everywhere. So to me, the signals cirt commodities.
We're in a global deflationary trajectory and the entire pillar
of the whole world is resting on the US stock market.
It's a little bit less so, but still the highest
valuations versus most rest of the world. Notes look at
the MSCI World x US index and versus GDP in
almost a life and certainly almost one hundred years. So
that to me is the risk that we killed lower
and just a little pick up in volatility. So I'll
end with this, We've never had a rally in goal
with this velosophy. Like I mentioned, it's almost ninety percent
of its sixty month moving average with volatility and the
stock market this low, so one hundred and twenty day
volatilly in the stock market streets around eleven percent. The
average is usually seventeen percent. So I'll make a prediction
we're going to rally back up and get the normalizations
stock market volatilly next year, and that might be that
deflationary signals you're getting from commodities. But that's kind of
thing I'm really worried about in mis main Frighten, We've
never rallied this much in gold without stock market volatilly
going up.
All right, Well, we'll see how that prediction shakes out.
Thanks for this, Mike, and up happy new year once again.
That's Mike mcglow, senior commodity strategist for Bloomberg Intelligence. We
move next to the housing sector. In twenty twenty five,
it experienced a significant cool down with high mortgage rates
and home prices still lingering. So what can we expect
from real estate this year? Let's bring in Bloomberg Intelligence
US home building analyst. You're reading for some answers on that, Drew.
I think a lot of home buyers are hoping for
lower interest rates in twenty twenty six. Could could that
spark kind of a turnaround in the housing sector.
Yeah, you're right, there's there's been a lot of optimism
that the pullback in rates to that low six percent range,
you know, would help affordability and spur a lot more activity.
What's interesting, and what we've heard from some of the
builders is that there hasn't been a material increase in
demand since rates pulled back, and I think, you know,
one of the problems is that there's just a lot
more uncertainty out there in the market. There's concerns over
the general direction of the economy, more concerns about the
outlook for the labor market. So people are putting off
these big discretionary decisions.
You know, when we talk.
About the resale market, you know, we've kind of been
hovering in that four million annualized pace now.
For a couple of years. I mean, the market's really
been frozen.
But we do think that we'll start to get some
growth in twenty twenty six, albeit off of that low base.
You know, we'll have more inventory on the market. As
long as rates, you know, continue to play nice in
that low six percent range, we should be able to
see some growth with prices moderating as well.
So where do you see prices going specifically, and do
you think that we're going to see improvement across the
home building sector. Is it going to be in luxury
or can it be in sort of the load to
mid range as well.
So in terms of prices, I think in the existing
home market you're going to see a moderation maybe into
the low single digit range. In the new home market,
we actually think you're going to see prices net prices
continue to come down, you know, just because you know,
builders are shifting their product mixed, they're continuing to lean
on sales incentives.
Now, you know, in terms of how.
We're looking at the new home market next year, from
a broad industry perspective, we think that the single family
market is going to remain muted where I mean, we're
expecting housing starts to be lower in twenty twenty six,
and it's really a reflection of you know, the soft
demand environment we've seen as well as the fact that
inventory level in the new home market are the highest
they've been in a while. So there's not a lot
of incentives for the builders to put new product into
the ground until they work through that specumentory, and I
think it's going to take time.
Now, we do think that you could see a modest
improvement in sales.
Of course, lower rates certainly help, but that's really a
reflection of the fact that builders are growing their community counts,
so it's not necessarily a pickup in sales pace, which
is similar to the concept that seems for sales. But
like I said, I think the group's going to continue
to lean on incentives to support their sales. So we
do think prices will moderate from here.
Now.
A lot of what I'm hearing from you makes it
sound like for a lot of these new home builders'
margins are going to continue to be sort of squeezed
into twenty twenty six. Is that what you're thinking, Yeah,
you hit.
The nail right on the head there. I mean, the
fundamental backdrop for the public builders we think remains challenging.
In twenty twenty six.
We're expecting to see further earnings de clients due to
soft top line growth and as you mentioned, further margin pressures.
And the reason for this is that many of the
home builders heading into twenty six will have backlogs that
are significantly lower, anywhere from ten to forty percent depending
on the builder. So that's going to put pressure on closings.
Like I said, there has been a fair amount of
optimism that the pullback and rates would help, but we
haven't seen that meaningful turn in demand. And because of that,
to your point, builders are going to have to continue
to lean heavily on incentives. We had a recent report
from the National Association of home Builders which showed that
the use of sales incentives is the most widespread that
it's been in the post COVID area. Now that's primarily
mortgage rate buydowns, which have really hurt builders' margins, but
we're also starting to see outright based price reductions. So
those things combined are going to are going to keep
profits muted it next.
Year and what could all this mean drew for homebuilders stock.
It sounds like it could be a pretty challenging environment
for their valuations in twenty twenty six.
From a pure valuation perspective. You know, it's not overly compelling.
There's an old rule of thumb in the industry that
says you buy the builders at one times book and
you sell them at two times book.
You know, that's not to say they've never breached those thresholds.
So I think you really need to you know, when
you talk about the stocks you know, kind of split
it out between the large cap builders and the smaller
cap builders who are trading at much more of a
discount than they have historically.
You know.
That being said, though, I think there's still a cloud
of uncertainty over the industry as to whether demand picks up,
whether housing policy has an impact next year.
So I do think that there are certainly some headwinds.
All right, Well, really appreciate this outlook on where the
housing sector could go in twenty twenty six. Drew, thanks
again for being with us. That's Drew reading us home
Building analyst for Bloomberg Intelligence. Coming up on Bloomberg day
Break weekend, we'll look at the culinary and cultural trends
in Europe to watch in the year ahead. I'm Nathan Hager,
and this is Bloomberg. This is Bloomberg Daybreak Weekend, our
global look ahead at the top stories for investors in
the coming week. I'm Nathan Hager in Washington. Up later
in the program, we'll look at what's in store for
monetary policy in Australia for the year ahead. But first,
it's been a roller coaster year for the global economy.
Even amid all that turmoil, though we did find time
to relax, explore and share a meal. The hospitality industries
had another challenging year in many places, but there are
still plenty of dining, travel and cultural highlights to reflect
on and look forward to. For more on that, let's
go to Brussels and check in with Bloomberg Daybreak Europe
anchor Stephen Carroll Nathan.
The worst of the inflation crisis is behind us in
the European Central Bank looks to have finished its rate
cutting cycle, and rates have come down significant leaf from
their peak in the UK too, but many consumers are
still feeling squeezed by the higher cost of living In
the UK. Surveys have shown Brits cutting back on dining
out in the past year. All of that being said,
many restauranteurs actually reported an upturn in bookings towards the
end of the year, showing a continued appetite for experiences
and a little indulgence as well. To help us unpack
the latest trends in eating, culture and travel, I'm joined
by the dream team from Bloomberg Pursuits, our food editor
Kate Crater and UK correspondent Sarah Rappaport. Great to have
you Kate, I'm going to start with you. I know
you've been keenly watching the big trends from food scenes
globally this year, but from a London point of view
and from sort of the big business point of view,
has it been a good year for restaurants in London?
That's a really good question, and it definitely depends on
who you ask. I think that some of the big
recognizable names will tell you that it's been a really
good year and they haven't seen that much fallout, despite
as you said, you know, there's continual budget woe news
and it definitely seemed like it was going to be
a very unmarry Christmas. So it was it was actually
like some good news. I love an optimistic headline, and
it's amazing to know that a place like Hawksmore, the
fantastic UK British steakhouse chain, they saw like fifteen sixteen
percent increase in bookings from last year. Will Beckett told
our own Bloomberg TV team, But I live in South
London and there's this fantastic little restaurant across the street
from me called Lagare that I love. Shout out to Lagare,
and they're having a challenging year, like they were trying
to decide whether to open the week after Christmas just
to try and make some money back because they've lost
a lot of money on booze sales because people have
cut back on drinking so much. So it's definitely a
mixed year. But I want to be optimistic and say
yeah for all the places that have seen an increase
in sales.
And if you haven't already guessed, this is a conversation
with which you may want to be taking notes for
recommendations for what to do in the future as well. Sarah,
let's turn to you. In the past year, you've covered
everything from high end property to top notch travel destinations
and more as well. What's your reading on where the
travel industry is now.
I'd had a few years after the pandemic where everyone
was doing the whole revenge travel thing. People didn't care
how much money they were spending, borders are open, they
were just wanting to go out and you know, do
the Yolo vibes have a good time, right, So they
didn't have to try too hard to really differentiate themselves
in those first few years after the pandemic. But things
are changing now. Situation is getting a little bit harder,
and at the top end, at the ultra luxury end,
things are doing all right. The meddal is a little
bit more squeezed. So that's where we are now, and
that people are having to really decide more about their
budgets how much they wanted to spend on travel, Whereas
before twenty twenty one twenty two, like put it on
the credit card, we want to go somewhere. Now things
are a little bit different.
Okay, and that's I suppose making it everyone a little
bit more discerning too, and how they're putting forward their
offshings as well. Let's talk a bit about highlights of
the year then, Kate, what meals have really impressed you
in the past year.
It's been an interesting year. London was like a bit
on the quiet side in the restaurant scene, relatively speaking,
because when.
It's good, it's so great.
But if Sarah was saying about travel, I think that
echoes in the restaurant industry. One restaurant that opened that
I absolutely loved, maybe because I'm a New Yorker is
called One Club Row. It's in Shoreditch and it's actually
like a sort of two level It's one of those
places that occupies an old pub, and old pubs are
so beautiful and smart restaurants. Heurs know that on the
first floor level is a place called One Club Row
and it's got these New York vibes. It's a bit
of a steakhouse. They have a burger that's very good burger.
They have a jamming martini menu. Martini's like have been
a big trend this year. Everybody has martini menu.
Like.
If you hear the people aren't drinking, just look around
at all the martini menus and think again. So a
huge shout out to One Club Row. Borough markets just
also continue to be fantastic. And then West notting Hills
like having a very good year restaurant wise, and a
place called Dove from a very great chef, Jackson Boxer
opened and they too have a burger that I think
is one of the best burgers I can remember having,
and I've eaten a lot of burgers I see.
I like the idea of a staple doing well as well.
One of the pieces that I really enjoyed that you
wrote in the past year was about the question of
experience and it not perhaps just being the food that
makes a great meal, with your great experience and with
your expert hat on, Kate, what is the architecture of
a great meal? What impresses you when you're going out
to eat?
I love that question, Steven. Yeah, no, I got to
write about this was based on a New York meal.
But I'm wondering how much food matters anymore in this
world of experience. And Sarah knows that from travel too.
I think when you go somewhere, you can have a
great meal, but if the service isn't good, and or
if there's not something that captures your attention or makes
you feel like, wow, I'm really here, like this is something.
This is why I'm paying this money, because it's not
something I can do at home. It's not something I
can do anywhere else. It can be something as simple
as a good trolley. I mean, trolleys have rolled around
dining rooms for a really long time. But if someone
does a really good job of parking that trolley at
your table and then serving you some food in a
way that makes you feel special and makes you feel
like this is a singular experience, then it's going to
stick in your mind. It's going to play big on
your social media, like It's just such a winning trend
on so many ways. And someone who said that for
a very long time is Danny Meyer, who's the founder
of Union Square Hospitality in Shakeshack, and he's a hospitality genius,
and he's been saying for years that you can have
bad food and a good experience and you're more likely
to come back than if you have good food but
bad service and not a great experience. So everyone, remember that.
The trolley thing is so true. As soon as you
said it, I could picture two or three for some reason,
old cheese related. We'll come back to that later. Remember
is standing out for me as well? Sarah on the question,
let's start with travel, what's been the standout destination for
you and your recent reporting.
Well, it's not so much a destination as a way
to get there. This year I got really into luxury trains, Stephen.
I took two luxury trains. I went on the Royal
scotsmand which operated by Belmond, which was just absolutely incredible
and took me through Scotland, which I've been to a
few times before, but never through my own train carriage.
Like sleeping on it, can you know the other passengers
not having any cell service. It was a real throwback
to like an older way of traveling, something really glamorous
and really fun. And I also took the new orient
Express train through Italy with just launched last year, and
these are very expensive. But there are also experiences that
photograph really well, so bucket list things that just make
you see destinations that you know differently through the windows
of a train carriage.
Sarah, if I can also mention you did get married
this year, I did, but I did see you also
reporting on the wedding industry, So first of all, congratulations
and secondly, watched you learned about the wedding industry.
They say, right about what you know?
Right?
I got married in September in Athens in the Riviera
in Greece on the seafront. Is a beautiful day I learned.
Top tip, things are gonna cost more than you think
they will. Maybe people know this, weddings are expensive, but yeah,
just have the day you want is what what I'd
say is important and figure out what matters to you.
For me, I wanted to have a party that went
on till four in the morning, which meant that I
couldn't do that in the UK really, given all the
rules and regulations, and I wanted really great food. So,
like Kate, I love food. It's important to me to
feed my friends and family. Well, so we had it
in Greece.
Okay, well I love those as top tips. Let's turn
to some recommendations then for the year ahead, Kate, what
are you looking forward to in twenty twenty six? Any
exciting openings or trends.
It's hard to see because I feel like the sands
keep shifting, but because I'm here to say some things
that I'm excited about. As we were just talking about,
like pubs which have been under pressure in a lot
of places. Some of them were beautiful and smart operators
are taking them over. The public House group is famously
doing it, and notting Hill at the Fat Badger, et cetera,
the Pelican, and so this year Simpson's Tavern is being
taken over by the group behind Cloth Restaurant. If you
haven't been, it's in the city. It's a fantastic little
restaurant and it's sort of British food with great wines.
And now they're taking over one of the storied properties
that's also in the city, conveniently close to Bloomberg Offices.
That's going to be really exciting. I think that's a huge,
big opening. Also, Jeremy King, who's one of the legendary
restaurants and Our Time, is finally going to reopen Simpsons
on the Strand, speaking of throwbacks and trolleys and stuff
like that, and so that's those are places where I
plan on spending a lot of time. There's also, as
I'm saying right now, of really fun Vietnamese food trend
coming and that food.
Is just delicious.
It's fresh, it's the kind of thing that relies on
a lot of herbs, restorative. This awesome restaurant just opened
on Paradise Row often bethnal Green, called Tempo. The chef
has been doing pop ups. He used to be in finance,
but now his time is much better spent cooking in
the kitchen and he makes just this shrimp toast that's
extraordinary And it just opens.
So when you go there, Sarah, when people ask you
what they need to see in the next year, over
the festive period, what will you be recommending, what highlights
are you looking forward to.
Well, I'm really excited about Cynthia Arriva, who we all
know from Wicked, but she's also British and was the
first came to people know her as a stage actress.
Is back on stage in Dracula. So it's one woman
show by Kip Williams, who did the Dorian Gray with
Sarah Snook which won all these Tony's and Olivier's and
that starts in February, and I'm really excited about about
seeing that because she's just a sensational talent on stage.
She's yeah, she's amazing. There's a new Tracey Emmon show.
It's a full retrospective of her career. It has a
famous bad there's ninety other pieces at the Tate Modern
from the end of February as well, so it'll be
a good one to take people to who're visiting.
And just on the question of travel for you both,
if we're thinking a little bit further ahead into the
year and destinations of where we want to go, where
will you be recommending Sarah in terms of a travel destination.
Start jinning us having a moment, a lot of luxury
new hotels opening, there's a new Beltmone, a new Mandan Oriental.
But it's also a great part of Italy that just
doesn't get enough attention, beautiful beaches, amazing food. It's also
known as a blue zone. People live longer because of
the Mediterranean diet, so you know you can live longer
on your next holiday and enjoy great Italian food, some
nice red wine on the beach.
Any dining destinations Kate that you'll be very keen to
check out in twenty twenty six.
I mean I want to go everywhere, of course, because
this is a kind of time when food like you
can find something fun almost everywhere everywhere you go, not
almost everywhere you go. I got to go there last year,
and I actually cannot wait to go back. Taiwan, and
specifically Taipei is just booming. It's the place that bubble
Tea was create, so everybody knows it for it's very
fun drink. It's also the soup dumpling Kings didn't ty
fun come from there, so they know their way around
some really good dishes. But they have some cool hotels
have been opening. The Capella open this beautiful hotel, and
now it's a really good time to explore their food
because they mix up this sort of sultry old school
kind of cooking and food stalls with some really modern smart,
innovative restaurants, and as happens in some of these places,
it's if you go to a two star, three star restaurant,
it's cheaper than if you try to do it in
a place like Europe, you know, or certainly the US,
it's definitely a couple hundred dollars cheaper. So it's great
to go to a city like that and experience cuisine
from high to low.
Plenty two inspiers for the year ahead. Thank you to
you both our Bloomberg Pursuits UK correspondent Sarah Rappaport and
food editor Cake Crater. I'm Stephen Carolyn Brussels. You can
catch us every weekday morning for Bloomberg Daybreak Europe, starting
at six am in London, seven am in Brussels and
one am on Wall Streets.
Nathan, Thanks Steven. And coming up on Bloomberg day Break Weekend,
we look ahead to how interest rates in Australia could
be impacted in twenty twenty six. I'm Nathan Hager, and
this is Bloomberg. This is Bloomberg Daybreak Weekend, our global
look ahead of the top stories for investors in the
coming week. I'm Nathan Hager in Washington, The Reserve Bank
of Australia looks set to pivot to interest rate increases
in the new year. For more on that, let's get
to Bloomberg's Doug Chrisner, host of the Daybreak Asia podcast.
Nathan Inflation in Australia has accelerated in the past few months,
and right now the market suspect there is a chance
that RBA Governor Michelle Bullock may raise interest rates in
February of next year. The swaps market right now is
indicating a one in three probability of a rate hike
at that time. For a closer look, I'm joined by
Bloomberg economist James McIntyre, who joins us from our studios
in Sydney. James, thank you for being here. So at
the RBA's December meeting, the cash rate, as we know
was held steady at three point six percent, and some
in the market may have been somewhat surprised by that.
We now have the benefit of the minutes from that meeting.
How would you summarize them?
It shows that the Central Bank is grappling with a
bit of an inflation surprise from some of the latest data.
So we got third quarter CPI data, and Australia now
has a new monthly CPI that's begun to be released,
and both of those were a little bit hotter, and
it did suggest on the monthly one that it's going
to take the RBS some time to get used to
this data. But their initial read was that it could
be showing some upside risk in December, and so's that's
really allowed them, with a still hot labor market, to
kind of take this little bit of a step back
and go well with East seventy five this point so far.
But it's showing that the discussion at this meeting was okay, well,
maybe we might have a bit more inflation being a
bit more persistent and stickier than we like. What would
we need to see if we were going to think
about hiking next year.
So I'd like to look at the chance of a
rate hike in February from the point of view of
the market. We recently spoke with Amy Shea Patrick. She
has head of Income Strategies at Pandel Group in Sydney.
Let's listen to Amy react to the idea of a
rate hike in February.
I don't feel strong enough to put a trade on
for February at this stage, but I would argue that
you know, the IBA is definitely waiting for the trimmean data.
I would argue that there's even further room to look
to wait a little bit longer because some of the
blips that we've been seeing coming through our inflation data.
When I think about it, it's to do with the
timing of subsidies being coming off. But when I think
about the trends in wages that you see in Australia,
and you know, the reason as essential banker you'd really
worry about inflation getting out of control again in your
country is if you see signs of any spiral happening
right whether it's expectations into actual inflation, whether it's wage
pressures into actual inflation. None of these things are happening
in Australia. So if you even you do get a
let's say one percent from mean course on quarter, there
might still be room to wait beyond that. If I
had to put a trade on, I would probably still
lean against not February the first hike, if indeed any
hikes next year.
Amy Shea Patrick from Pendel Group in Sydney back with
Bloomberg economist James McIntyre. James, does Amy have a point
that maybe the best option right now is to wait
and see.
I think she does. I think Amy is nailed. In
my view, it's too aggressive to think that the RBA
is going to do something in February. They still there's
going to need to be a lot more information for
them to be able to assess whether inflation is going
to durably exceed their target band. So the expectation RBA
has is that inflation is going to have a bit
of a blip up, and some of it is because
of these subsidies that have been removed and the timing
of the delivery of them, and that's going to be
something that is going to be a part of Australia's
inflation story for the next nine or twelve months or so.
Getting used to that for the RBA is going to
be extremely difficult, and so I think it urgs that
leads you to err on the side of caution. February
is too soon. It really does put us in this
situation for May. Those other factors that Amy raised about
the labor market, wages and kind of wage driven cost
pressures and expectations by consumers of wages running away. She's right,
I don't see that, and not only do I not
see that now, but my view is that where I
see that going is that they see a softening in
the labor market gradually drag in the RBA, not from hikes,
but actually dragging them back towards easing, and this being
more of a we'll see you around the middle of
the year that this was more of a in my view,
a bit of a mid cycle pause from the RBA
with them returning to easing monetary policy again.
So how would you describe, James the overall economic growth
story in Australia right now?
It's how I've described it for a long time. It
looks good on the surface, but once you peer under
the hood, there's a few things going on that suggests
that the engine could be running a little bit better.
We've had surprise upside for migration that's boosted demand. When
we look at some of the latest GDP data that
we've got, looks like business investments strong and businesses are
telling us that they're going to ramp up. But when
we look at what type of investment they're going to
ramp up, it's that same AI investment story that is
echoing all around the world right now. Now, Not only
is that AI growth going to be in business investment,
that's not going to give us many enduring long term jobs.
I don't see many people working in those closed down
data centers with no lights. But the AI and the
tech and the data center thing is going to help
improve productivity and sort of could soften jobs growth for
a whole range of services sectors. So that's I mean,
the RBA is going to have to deal with not
any of the course of this year, but over the
years ahead and when they're looking on a two to
three year basis as to when whether they need to
pull the trigger on any monetary policy. I think as
we roll through the course of twenty twenty six, we'll
see more of that softening in the labor market being
the factor relative to say price pressures, which I don't
think will be persistent, that labor market data pulling them
the same way we see it pulling the FED into
easing again in twenty twenty six.
When I think of Australia's economy, I think of those
commodity type industries, mining industries, I think of iron ore
in particular. How are those industries holding up right now.
Better than expected.
Douck.
You tend to think of iron ore and coal, and
those have been the two big stories for Australian commodities
for the better part of the last fifteen years. We
had a very big LNG investment boom and that's been very.
Big for us.
But over the last two to three years it's been
very very interesting. We've seen lithium surge with that price
I can now with the price spike in gold, we're
seeing gold exports. Australia is also the third largest exporter
of gold in the world, and so this is delivering
a new river of gold actually in terms of export
earnings for Australia's economy. And so we've seen the latest
update from the Office of the Chief Economist in the
Department of Industry who does our projections for commodities exports,
and we've seen an upgrade to those again. So it's
actually a continued export windfall on the commodity side for
the economy and that's really really good news for the
government who will be benefiting from some higher tax revenues
from those and could see smaller budget deficits and helping
improve the fiscal situation next year as well.
So if you're upgrading an outlook like that, does that
necessarily mean that you're betting on a recovery in the
Chinese economy, given the fact that Australia is such a
strong trading partner with China.
So what's interesting is that the iron ore story is
one of we'd expected iron ore prices to fall because
we weren't thinking, you know, looking at the Chinese economic
outlook and the uncertainties there that there was some perhaps
we're now seemed to be overly conservative bias when it
comes to what was previously factored into that export outlook.
And so now even with a sort of a steadying
as she goes and perhaps some more supportive Chinese policy
next year, it does look like that is a little
bit better on the iron ore side coming through there.
So the surprising resilience, i think is more the story
when it comes to those iron ore prices, and then
surprising upside when it comes to those other factors like gold.
You mentioned the labor market a moment ago, and I'm
curious about the migration story in Australia, what that may
look like now and how you might expect things to
change in the future.
So the story for twenty twenty five for migration was
that a set of policy measures were put in place
by the government to try and deal with a massive
surge in migration as students and temporary workers all came
rushing back post the pandemic, and so the expectation was
migration was going to fall this year, but when we
got to the middle of the year, it didn't. And
we've forgot a factor. We forgot the back door. Australia
has an open labor market when it comes to New Zealand,
and New Zealand's economy has been struggling and dipped back
into recession in the middle of this year. And if
there's jobs going in Australia in a tight labor market
and it's looking pretty bad at home, and you're a
Kiwi and the weather is better as well, well, they've
voted with their feet. It's a flightless bird, but they've
gotten The Kiwis have gotten on the plane and have
moved quite a bit to Australia and that's really moved
the dial on migration. So seeing that normalized next year
is something that from twenty twenty six, we think that
that migration story will step back, but right now it's
been one that's added a little bit of a surprise
boost to demand within the economy. So that's been a
one more factor that helps the RBA being a little
bit reticent around do we have too much activity in
the economy? Could this inflation be a bit more persistent
because we haven't had for sort of firms that are
in the consumer side of the yon. If migration was
going to fall away and population growth wasn't going to
be as strong, you know, those firms might have been
a little bit more cautious in their demand outlook and
their sales outlook. And if we've had the situation of
strength in that consumer demand, if there is any opportunity
for them to raise prices, that's a little bit of
a different environment and an environment that the RBA is
flagging those concerns about. It's an environment we think will
give way to a bit of an easier inflation outlook
next year, leading to those cuts. As flagged in the
discussion earlier.
One of the hot button political issues here in the
States as it relates to the economy is this issue
of affordability. And I'm wondering whether that's playing out in
a way that is very similar in Australia right now.
It's called affordability in the US. We've called it a
cost of living crisis here in Australia and that's been
a hot button issue for the government for the past
two to three years and we've done everything. We've had
a very big, wide ranging government and quiet into the supermarkets,
we call it a Royal Commission, and that really put
the heat on whether that duopoly that we have in
our supermarket system here was responsible for some of that
inflation in the housing market. It's been a perennial concern.
But what the government has done is they provided additional
supports to first home buyers, those at the most difficulty
of entering the housing market that will actually ironically push
up prices even further, will help support house price rises
in the parts of the market the first time buyers
would be in. But we have been dealing with that
here in Australia in different ways, be it ether housing,
food supply, or when it comes to and going back
to what Amy was saying and what I was also discussing,
when it comes to the inflation story around subsidies, electricity
price subsidies will put in place as well to try
and deal with this. So we've been going through this
affordability issue on the Australian context in many many ways,
and it does look like, or at least the expectation
is that inflation should be continuing to ease back over
the course of twenty twenty six after a bit of
a bump up through the middle of the year. We
could see the RBA beginning to be a little bit
more comfortable by the end of the year.
Nonetheless, as you were just pointing out, it seems to
underscore the dilemma facing the RBA.
Look, it certainly does, and when it is especially when
you have price pressures in high frequency purchase items. You know,
if there's things that consumers buy once a year or
once in a blue moon, like a new television courtesy
of say some trade restrictions or tariffs. If that were
the case, that's very very different inflation to inflation you
see at the petrol pump, at the fuel pump or
at the supermarket every single week when you're buying food
for your family, and consumers respond very very differently to
those and so it's something that the RBA has been watching,
and no doubt other central banks will be watching as
well through the course of the year ahead.
James will leave it there. Thank you so very much,
Bloomberg Economists. James McIntyre and I'm Doug Prisner. You can
catch us weekdays for the Daybreak as your podcast. It's
available wherever you get your podcast, Nathan.
Thanks Doug, and that does it for this edition of
Bloomberg Daybreak Weekend. Join us again Monday morning at five
am Wall Street Time for the latest don markets, overseas
and the news you need to start your day. I'm
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