1047: 15 Transactions for Week 10

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Speaker 1: This is the Labor Podcast with your host JJ Zachersa JJ Zacherson. What's up everyone, It's JJ Zacharyeson in this episode ten forty seven of the Late Round Fantasy Football Podcast. Thanks for tuning in. We're at a point in the season where we generally have an idea for teams are coasting the playoffs or if they're not. Some of your teams need variants to get there. Some of them don't, so as you listen to Transactions this week, it's important to keep that thought in mind. I'm trying to help all sorts of teams here, not just the ones that are eight and one, and not just the ones that are one and eight. But hopefully there's a little something for you specifically on this week's episode, So let's get to it. Ad Parker Washington. Travis Hunter was placed on IR after I did the fifteen Transactions episode last week, and then on Sunday we had some more issues without Jacksonville Wide receiver room Me Brown suffered a concussion, so his status for week ten is currently up in the air. Brian Thomas, if you watch that game, it looked like he had an ankle injury and he was limping a little bit, so we'll see what happens with Thomas throughout this week. The last man standing, though, is Parker Washington. He came through for fantasy managers in Week nine, securing eight of nine targets for ninety yards. He's now seen nineteen targets over their last two games. Regardless of the status of these other pass catchers. With Hunter on ir, Washington should be rostered in most leagues. There's a lot of volume upside by Woody Marx. The expectation for Woody Marx should not be that he's going to be a bell cow back in the NFL, at least this season. I don't think that's a rational expectation. With that being said, there's nothing wrong with his current role in this offense. He started getting more work back in Week four, and since then he's averaged a forty six percent running back rush air per game rate and a ten percent target share during that timeframe. According to PFF's expected Fantasy points model, it says that Woody Marx should have been averaging thirteen point one PPR points per game. He's been at twelve point one. Guys, not every running back is going to be like Jumior Gibbs, or at least Jamiir Gibbs not in Week nine other Jamier Gibbs. It's okay to say that this guy might be a high end RB three or just a mid to low end RB two. And not only that, Marx could just improve as he gets more reps in the NFL. And on top of that, the schedule for Houston, in my opinion, is set up really well, specifically for Marx. We want two things for Woody Marx. We won an easy rush defense and a possible negative game script. If the matchup is good, then you'll have a chance to score more points even on the limited opportunities. But if there's a negative game script, he's the one who's gonna be on the field. Since Week four, according to Fantasy Life data, Marx has played eighty six percent of the team's two minute snaps. Nick Chubb hasn't played any of them. The Texans get the Jags, Titans, Bills, Colts, Chiefs, Cardinals, Raiders, and Chargers through the end of the fantasy season. My numbers give their running backs a top ten rest of season schedule, and there are some games in there where Woody Mars can really come through. In a negative game script as a receiver, So coming off that poor showing against Denver, it might not be a bad idea if you can swap some bench assets for woody marks at JJ McCarthy. So I talked about this last week on the show, but it just felt like people were prematurely burying JJ McCarthy. He had that Week one game against the Bears where he had a good second half, and then he faced Atlanta in Week two, and as we know now, that matchup is not nearly as easy as we thought back then. But he came through against the Lions. He finished the week in the top ten among all qualified quarterbacks and completion rate over expected. He's now given fantasy managers two usable performances in three starts. Again, that one bad game happening in the Atlanta Falcons. They've surrendered the fewest passing yards over expected this year. And maybe you're sitting there and you're saying, well, he's only done well against the Bears and the Lions. Okay, fair, But here's the thing. Minnesota's rest of the season schedule looks pretty great. According to my adjusted fantasy points allowed numbers, seventy five percent of their remaining matchups, their favorable matchups. They get games against the Commanders, Cowboys, Giants, and Lions to close out the season. He might not be an every week starter for your fantasy team, but you'll want to roster him for certain matchups. And what if he's just better than what everyone thought ad Devin Singletary. Look strictly from a process standpoint, I think it was logical to think that Tyrone Tracy would see the most work in that Giants backfield post Cam Scataboo injury. Just last year. Tyrone Tracy showed us what he's capable of in Week five. After that point in time, we watched this same New York coaching staff give Tracy a seventy two percent running back rush aare per game and an eleven percent target share. His snap rate during that timeframe was sixty eight percent, and that was on a team with Devin Singletary. Even last week, when that Cam Scataboo injury happened, Tracy had a sixty four percent snap share. Devin Singletary was at sixteen percent. So what did the Giants do in Week nine? They gave Devin Singletary seven more snaps than Tyrone Tracy Tracy's forty five percent snap share was lower than all but one game post breakout last season. Fantasy football can be so freaking frustrating sometimes. Now, Tracy wasn't one hundred percent late in that game against San Francisco on Sunday. He was a little bit banged up, but the Giants were splitting work well before that. They gave Singletary more ground game stuff Tyrone Tracy. He ran more routes, did a little bit more through the air. But because of that, Singletary is now more of a priority in Week ten than he was in Week nine. Do be aware, though, that the Giants running backs have a pretty tough rest of season schedule, and I don't know if Devin Singletary is gonna have tons of usability without a Tyrone Tracy injury. But for deeper formats or just for handcuffing purposes, you can add Devin Singletary. Sell Michael Pittman. Michael Pittman has had a low key awesome season. He scored twenty plus PPR points in three straight games. He's got about a twenty four percent target share per game rate on the entire season, and let's be honest, the Fantasy football world, they're not really buying into it because we're sitting back and we're saying, at some point, this is gonna crash, right, And it kind of did on Sunday against the Steelers for Daniel Jones, but Michael Pittman was still great. So you might be wondering, why are we selling Michael Pittman. And this is one of those transactions that needs a lot of context. If someone in your fantasy league fully understands Michael Pittman's value, then that's where this transaction is more usable. But more importantly, I would only be trading away Michael Pittman if I desperately needed a win. Like I said at the top, this time of year, you generally have an idea if your fantasy squad or playoff bound or not. If you're sitting there with Michael Pittman and you're three and six, maybe even four and five, and you really need a win, you might want to consider selling him because over the team's next three games, they get the Falcons, the Chiefs, and the Texans pre Monday Night Football. The Chiefs and Texans are bottom three opponents for wide receivers by justin fantasy points a lot. The Falcons. They're a bottom ten team. The Colts also have their buy in week eleven. That means we've got a month before we might see typical Michael Pittman numbers. Again, this is not a move that I would feel good about making if I knew I was going to make the playoffs. The Colts get the forty nine ers and the Jags in week sixteen and seventeen, Pittman should be fine there, and honestly, he should still be fine enough during this rough stretch. I'm just saying, if you need to invite a little bit more variance and sell a little high because Michael Pittman has been off, you might want to consider doing that given this upcoming stretch. Add Tory Horton. If I'm being completely objective with you guys, which I always try to do, but entering week nine, Tory Horton's yards per rout run rate not very good. It was sub one. He had fewer than one yard per route run. That's not a strong number, even for a rookie. But regardless of what the data is saying, I like Tory Horton. I liked him a lot as a prospect. I talked about him this summer. I talked about him in season he scored well in the ZAP model compared to his draft capital because he had strong collegiate production and he's athletic. The athleticism part isn't part of the ZAP model, but it all comes through with his production. So needless to say, I'm not like overly surprised that he had a good Week nine with Cooper Cups sidelined, and there's a chance he's gonna have opportunity to build on that moving forward. I just want to say, even though you should be adding him temper expectations, he's been below a twenty percent target in all but one game this year, and that includes Week nine and Cooper Cup. He at least has a chance to return this week. Hold Jacorey Krossky Merit so. On last week's ten Trends episode, I talked about how Jacory Krossky Merrit just hasn't been generating big plays. From weeks one through five, Bill had a ten plus yard run rate of twenty point nine percent. From Week six through eight, it was two point six percent. On Sunday Night, he didn't have a run of ten or more yards. That's been the major difference between early season Bill and current season Bill. He's not generating big plays and that's resulted in just seventeen point six PPR points over his last four games combined. Now, that game on Sunday Night, it was a little bit weird, but he did finish that game with only a forty eight percent running back rush share. In his four games prior to that, he was around seventy eight percent volume through the air. That continues to be a problem. He's typically getting ten to fifteen, sometimes more touches on the ground per game. My stance is that you shouldn't throw that kind of volume onto the waiver wire, even if the performance hasn't been there. We're gonna likely see some more big plays from Bill in the coming weeks, just because regression tells us so and the Commanders have a pretty good remaining schedule for running backs. They have games against the Dolphins, Giants, and Cowboys still remaining on that schedule, and with the Jayden Daniels injury and this season looking a little hopeless for Washington, would it really surprise you if the Commanders give Bill more work down the stretch to see what he's made of, to see what they have in him. So for now, he's someone to just hold you. Obviously can't start him until you see more, but I do think he still deserves a bench spot. Add Theo Johnson. So Tucker Craft managers, you're looking for a replacement on the waiver wire this week, and one of those replacements could be Theo Johnson. He's low key getting it done this year. He's averaging eleven and a half PPERO points game since Malik Neighbor's season ending injury. That's a low end tight end one number. He hasn't fallen below a fifteen percent target share since that injury. And for what it's worth, New York has a top half schedule for tight ends rest of season and a top ten to one in the fantasy playoffs by Aaron Jones. So I got to get this out of the way first. Aaron Jones did suffer a shoulder injury against the Lions on Sunday. The belief right now is that he could play next week, so that's all good. Before that injury, according to my friend Dwayne McFarlane, a Fantasy Life, Jones had a seventy seven percent snap share, a sixty eight percent route share, a thirteen percent target share, and he had seen seventy percent of the team's rush attempts. He was operating very clearly as the top running back in that backfield, and he looked better than Jordan Mason, very clearly in my opinion. Hypothetically, let's say this type of usage continues. If Aaron Jones is healthy, that could be huge in fantasy football. The Vikings get the Ravens and the Bears in Minnesota over their next two games. Those are fine opponents. Then it's two tough ones on the road against Green Bay and Seattle, but they close out the year. As I said earlier with JJ McCarthy against the Commanders, the Cowboys, the Giants, and the Lions, It's hard to find a better end of season stretch than those four games. Chances are the teams with Aaron Jones, they're not like overjoyed to have him right now. So if you want to take a chance with some depth, I'd say go for it. Trade for Aaron Jones, even if he misses some time in the short term. This is a long term play, and because of that short term injury, maybe you even get him cheaper. Add Colston Loveland. Colston Loveland had a big, big breakout in Week nine, including that game winning touchdown against the Bengals. He scored twenty nine point eight ppiar points. He had about a twenty two percent target shair. Those were both season highs by a good margin. He's now had better act to back games with at least a seventy five percent routeshare. Even before cole Comet left Sunday's game with a concussion, Loveland had a roudshare that was well over sixty percent, so he was trending in the right direction. Now. I do find this situation with Loveland pretty interesting. On one hand, you have a very talented prospect who finally showed us what he can do. He's getting more looks in his offense. On the other hand, his ceiling has been capped because of Cole Comet, because he has his tight end teammate and the Bears. They face the Bengals. Cincinnati has allowed twelve tight end touchdowns this year, when no other team has allowed more than six. But you guys know my philosophy by now. When you get a talented young player who shows out, whether it's via peripherals or just by production, you almost always want to buy into that player. So if Colston Lovelin's on your waiver wire, he should be added this week. Sell Dj Moore. So for us was that Bengals defense has been cornerback Dj Turner. He's kind of been excellent in coverage this year, and you can see that in the Fantasy Football stat sheets number two wide receivers. They're often outperforming the top wide receivers against the Bengals. We've seen some down games from Justin Jefferson, DK Metcalf, Brian Thomas, now Roma Doonza when they faced the Bengals. Meanwhile, Marvin Mims had a big outing against them, Matthew Golden outscored Romeo Dobbs, and DJ Moore had his best game of the season in Week nine against the Bengals, And that's one reason as to why you should try to sell him now. He's had a really disappointing twenty twenty five. He's max out at just a twenty percent target chair in a single game this year. Even Sunday's twenty three point performance saw him with a sub twenty percent target chair. He was averaging fewer than ten PPR points per game heading into Week nine. The reason his numbers look so good is because he had a rushing touchdown, which is not sustainable, and in a passing touchdown, which is even less sustainable. This kind of stuff is not gonna happen every single week. And also Moore looked like he heard his hamstring in that game, but he did re enter the game. There are just a lot of reasons here as to why I'm not very bullish on DJ Moore moving forward despite what he did in week nine. So if you can sell him high, definitely try to do that. Add Blake Koram, I'm pretty surprised that Blake Korm is still available in over ninety percent of Yahoo leaks. Koram's not seeing a ton of work through the air, but he is digging into Kien Williams workload in that offense. Since week four, Koram has a thirty two percent running back rush share per game rate, and that includes a game where he screwed up early and he wasn't heard from again. You remove that game, his share moves up to thirty eight percent. Maybe your league isn't deep enough where you'd actually start Blake Korm. I totally get that, but he's got to be one of the higher end handcuffs and fantasy football. Right now, given the way La is moving the ball, an injury to Kien Williams Koram would skyrocket through the running back ran. This is your reminder that a lot of times players like Quorum, they're better stashes than the random veteran wide receivers with like wide receiver, three wide receiver, four ceilings, handcuffing and getting back up running max. You should be adding those types of players way more frequently this time of year, and this is just your reminder for that. Add Christian Watson. So I tried to avoid repeat transactions, and I did talk about Christian Watson last week, but he's still rostered in fewer than thirty percent of Yahoo leagues. And things are pretty interesting in Green Bay right now. They're coming off a really bad day offensively, and in that game against Carolina they lost Matthew Golden to a shoulder injury and Tucker Craft to an ACL. Matthew Golden could play next week. I have no idea how long he's going to be out, if at all, right now at the time of this recording, but with Tucker Craft out, we're looking at the potential for more looks to go elsewhere. Watson saw a seventy five percent routeshare in Week nine. That was up from sixty five percent in Week eight. He hit another eleven percent target share. If he can establish himself over the next week or two games that could be without Golden and Jaden Reid, then there's some potential for him to get some production through the end of the year. Green Bay has the third best median opponent in the Fantasy playoffs according to My numbers, and they had the third best rest of season schedule for wide receivers too, So I do think Christian Watson should be rostered in more leagues ad Marcus Mariota. So with Jayden Daniels set to miss an extended period of time, Marcus Mariota he's back in our streaming lives. He's averaged almost thirty rushing yards per game in his three starts this year. He also scored a rushing touchdown Last year in two games were relief for Daniels, we saw him with thirty four and fifty six rushing yards. There's a rushing floor with Marcus Mariota, and the schedule for Washington doesn't look that bad either. They'll get the Lions this week, making Mariota a viable streamer. Then they get the Dolphins, Broncos, Vikings, Giants, Eagles, and Cowboys. I think that we're gonna see some usability from Marcus Mariota given that rushing backbone. Let's just hope that he gets Terry McLaurin back at some point. And for the record, if you're thinking about Sam Darnald, I do like Donald more than Mariota. He's just something that I've talked about before. And he's rostered in half of Yahoo leagues given he was a top streamer last week. So if you already have someone like Sam Darnold on your roster, you don't need to add Marcus Mariota. But I do think Mariota is more of that traditional streamer type. Add the Cleveland Browns defense, so because they're bye week, the Browns are rostered in just thirty one percent of Yahoo leagues and they get the Jets this week. That game has a thirty six and a half point total. This season, New York has been the seventh best matchup for opposing defenses by justin fantasy points allowed, no matter who's under center for the Jets, the Browns make plenty of sense as a streaming choice. That's it for today's show, though thanks Tolby for listening. If you had subscribed to the Late Round Fantasy football podcast, make sure you are shooting for it pretty much anywhere podcasts can be found, and follow me on Twitter and on Blue Sky at Late Round QB. Thanks for listening everyone. I'll be back in your ears tomorrow with the weekly ten Trends episode.