462: 15 Transactions for Week 15

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Speaker 1: This is the lad Podcast with with your host JJ zacher Retha j J zacher reson What's up everyone? It's JJ Zachares and the editor in chief at Fandle and at number fire dot com in this episode four hundred and sixty two of the Late Round Podcast. So many shows that are part of the FanDuel podcast network. Thanks for tuning in. It's week fifteen. There's no need for me to give you, guys buy and sell recommendations. At this point the season. You're really only concerned about the waiver Wire. So on this week's show, I give you some of my favorite waverwire options for both weeks fifteen and sixteen, to go along with a handful of players you can outright drop. That's what the show is all about. You've got this week's fifteen transaction show, and then you've got next week's fifteen transaction show. Now, before getting into those transactions, I want to talk specifically to Colorado listeners here. Fandel bud Light and the Denver Broncos have partnered together to create the bud Light Pick and Kick Bone with one goal in mind, to give you more ways to win this NFL season. The program is simple for every field goal and extra point the Broncos kicker, which is Brandon McManus, for every field goal and extra point that he makes against the Buffalo Bills on December nineteenth. Fans who placed the money line bet of at least twenty five dollars on the game will receive a three dollars bonus added to their Fanduels Sportsbook account. If McManus kicks three field goals and three extra points, that's eighteen dollars in bonus cash. December nineteenth is right around the corner, So crack open a bud light, download the Fandels Sportsbook mobile app, and place your bet today. Add Jalen Hurts. Now, look, if you didn't start Jalen Hurts in Week fourteen, don't beat yourself up. It was a tough matchup. He's a rookie quarterback and he was getting his first start. We didn't know which direction this could go in, but it went int a positive one because in that game he carried the ball eighteen times for over one hundred yards. He gave us that cheat code in Fantasy football, and that's why he was an ad on this show last week. You probably weren't gonna use him against the Saints, but if he showed up, which he did, you now have a viable quarterback option because over the next two weeks, Jalen Hurts gets Arizona in Dallas. Those are two plus matchups when looking at justin fantasy points allowed to quarterbacks. So if all quarterback streamers that you could possibly add this week, Jalen Hurts is number one. Drop Todd Gurley. Now, despite playing the last couple of weeks, Todd Gurley has not looked one hundred percent healthy, and that's also reflected in his workload. He' said about a thirty five percent running back rush here over this time and he's played no more than thirty seven percent of the Falcon snaps in a single game. Now, he has a game this week against the Buccaneers. Because of that matchup, one of the tougher matchups in the league, he's probably not gonna do that much. And then based on that potential down performance, even if his backfield share numbers look decent against Tampa Bay, because of a potential down performance, you're probably not gonna have that much confidence in playing Todd Gurley in Week sixteen. So let's just avoid the headache in casual leagues. In most leagues, you can probably drop Todd Gurley hold Deontay Johnson. Now, look, guys, you know that I love me some Deontay Johnson. He was one of my favorites in the pre draft process this year. I was into him. I have him on a lot of my fantasy teams, and seeing him get benched in the first half against the Bills, that wasn't fun. But don't let drops get in the way of what's going on in fantasy football. One of the things to always keep in mind, and one of the things I always talk about on this show, is that targets are earned. In order for a wide receiver to see a target, he has to be good and he has to get open. The reason I say that he has to be good is if Deontay Johnson wasn't good, Ben Roethlisberger wouldn't feed him, and Ben Roethlisberger feeds Deontay Johnson. Even in limited playing time against the Bills, Deontay Johnson had a nineteen percent target share. So yes, it's frustrating, but I think he's gonna bounce back and I would definitely still hold him on my roster. Don't tilt so hard that you drop him at DeAndre Washington. So on Saturday, there was a surprise positive COVID test with Miles Gaskin and he missed Week fourteen against the Chiefs, and he's going to miss week fifteen as well. With Savon Akman banged up. DeAndre Washington was the guy in that backfield. He carried the ball thirteen times against the Chiefs. That accounted for seventy seven percent of the team's running back rushes, and he also saw a target share of about nine percent. Now, even though his fantasy day wasn't great, he had seven point two PPR points. He's an intriguing option if Ackman is out again because the Dolphin's get a Patriots team this week that was just destroyed by cam Akers on Thursday night. Ad Lynn Boden. So I saw a lot of talk on Twitter when Miles Gaskin tested positive for coronavirus that Lynn Boden would benefit a lot from it. Maybe that's somewhat true, but it wasn't a direct relationship because Boden hasn't really been playing running back for Miami. He's been their slot receiver over the last two weeks. No player on that Dolphins team has played more slot snaps than Lynn Boden has. He hasn't been playing running back. He's basically taken the job that Malcolm Perry started to play in that Miami offense. And across these two weeks where he's playing slot receiver, he's seen a target chare per game north of fifteen percent, which is equated to thirteen targets for one hundred and twenty three yards. And I really like the flexibility that he can bring to your fantasy lineup because on a lot of sites he's eligible as a wide receiver and a running back. With so many banged up pass catchers on this Dolphins team, I love Lynn Boden, especially in PPR formats as an ad this week, drop John news Smith. So across the first four games of John Hus Smith's twenty twenty season, he averaged seventeen and a half points per game. He finished no worse than the ninth best tight end in a given week. Now since then, he's finished no better than tight end nine, and he's averaging five point eight points per game. Injuries are one reason for this, but so is a healthy last catching group in this Tennessee offense. John who is still rostered in sixty nine percent of Yahoo leagues. I'm not gonna say it, but his target share per game average since that Week five contest is just a little over ten percent. And now over the next two weeks, the Titans get the Lions and the Packers, And for what it's worth, those are two teams who have been well above average at stopping tight ends when looking at adjusted Fantasy points allowed. So overall, would I be shocked if John Hu Smith does something moving forward? No, I wouldn't be shocked. But is he someone that's giving you predictable production? Not at all. If you have an alternative, you don't have to roster John Hu Smith and Irv Smith. Now, another Smith tight end is IRV Smith, who had a good game against Tampa Bay with Kyle Rudolph's sidelined. In that game, he caught all four of his targets for sixty three yards in a touchdown, and he did that while playing limited snaps because he's coming off an injury of his own. He only had a thirty five point four percent snaphare. Now, this game against Tampa Bay mark Smith's second top five performance over his last three games, and He's actually hit double digit fantasy points in four of his last six So if Kyle Rudolph continues to miss time, IRV Smith is absolutely in play as a streamer. Add Darnell Mooney. The best lower key rookie season that's happening in the NFL right now, at least on the offensive side, is probably with Darnell Mooney. He's seen about a fifteen percent target share this season in that Bears offense, and since the Bears have been pretty pass friendly they're fourth in the NFL and pass attempts, that's equated to seventy three targets on the season. That's almost a top forty number at wide receiver. Now, I'm not selling Darnell Mooney as this like fantasy football god. I'm just saying that he's been involved in this offense. And the Bears get Minnesota and Jacksonville over the next two weeks. Those are two plus matchups for fantasy wideouts. So if you're in a pinch, maybe you're in a deeper format. I think Darnell Mooney works off the waiver wire to plug him in and cross your fingers, cousins. It's been a pretty good couple of months for Kirk Cousins in fantasy football, at least compared to how people view him. Since Week six, Cousins has averaged over twenty standard fantasy points per game. He's been below the seventeen point mark just once. The problem is that over the next two weeks, Minnesota's schedule is not easy. They get Chicago in the New Orleans Now. The Bears haven't been as good defensively of late, but it's still not a super desirable matchup, and then the Saints haven't allowed a multi touchdown game since Week eight. So in most leagues where there are decent quarterbacks available on the waiver wire, you're probably better off just streaming rather than using Kirk Cousins. Hold Jared Goff. Now, on the flip side, Jared Goff is coming off a bad performance against New England, but we kind of expected that. I talked about that briefly on the Matchup show last week that I didn't really like Jared Goff. But the good news is over the next two weeks the matchups are a lot better. He gets the Jets this week, that's the third best matchup in terms of adjusted fantasy points allowed, and then he gets the Seahawks. Now Seattles played a little bit better defensively of late. They're definitely better than they were to start the year, but over the last two weeks. Do keep in mind they faced Colt McCoy and Sam Darnold across the entire season. For what it's worth, they've been the fourth best matchup for fantasy quarterbacks AD Chad Hanson. So when the will Fuller suspension was announced a couple of weeks back, the obvious ad off the waiver wire was Keikey QT and he's been pretty good, but Chad Hansen has been a nice surprise. Over the last two weeks the two without will Fuller, Hanson's target shairs have been eighteen point nine percent and twenty five point nine percent. He's had two straight top thirty performance as a wide receiver. Now, keep in mind Brandon Cooks was out of Sunday's game. He didn't play, but even in Week thirteen when Brandon Cooks was playing, Hanson was on the field for over ninety two percent of houston snaps. That volume and that usage alone in a Deshaun Watson led offense that should be rostered. Ad Nelson, agalre Agalar has been pretty strong during the second half of the season. Derek Carr started targeting him a little bit more out of the Raiders buy and since that point he's averaged a target share per game of almost twenty percent and he's had three top fifteen performances. Agaler has now seen target totals of nine, six, eleven, and nine over the last four weeks, and honestly, it's partially due to the fact that the Raiders are so bad defensively. They're just not a good team right now. They've allowed thirty seven and a half points per game over the last four weeks, and as a result, we've seen Derek Carr see his pass attempts per game increase by about eight So Nelson Aguiler are seeing a higher target share and that's on more targeted attempts. So that's gonna give Agalore a little bit better of a baseline. Each and every week. Add Philip Rivers. So it's another fifteen Transactions podcast, and it's another week of me saying to add Philip Rivers. He's still available in about sixty percent of Yahoo leagues. He's just been so consistent. Since weeks six, Rivers has ranked lower than QB sixteen and weekly scoring just once. I know I bring this up all the time. That one game was against Baltimore. That's a good defense. He's averaging eighteen point three points per game over this time and now he gets Houston again this week. Houston has been completely destroyed this year, and they're getting even more destroyed without Bradley Roby in that secondary. Without Roby this season, Jake Lowton scored twenty one fantasy points against the Texans Mitch Trubisky. Last week he hit twenty five points. And remember two weeks ago, Rivers threw for two hundred and eighty five yards and two touchdowns. This Houston secondary is very, very beatable, and that makes Philip Rivers a nice streamer. Add the Minnesota Vikings defense. So the Vikings are going to get the Bears in Week fifteen. And even though Mitch Trubisky is playing better football now than he was at the beginning of the year, I still think it's a beatable matchup. Trubisky has played three games now since becoming starter for Chicago. Once again, they face the Packers, lines, and Techs, and those three teams had three, two and three sacks. That's not bad. The main reason Detroit and Houston weren't able to score a lot of fantasy points against Chicago is because they allowed a lot of points. That's a lot less likely to happen against Minnesota this weekend, because Vikings opponents have hit thirty points or more once since Week seven. Me bringing this up and talking about the Bears being a decent opponent for Minnesota, I'm saying this because I don't think we can take this recent sample and equate it to Minnesota. Because Detroit and Houston have horrendous defenses. They rank is the worst and the fourth worst according to number fires Expected Points model. Minnesota, meanwhile, is very middle of the road. That's why they work as a streamer this week. Add the Los Angeles Chargers defense. Now, if you're looking forward to Week sixteen, you could add the Chargers. They haven't been very good as a unit this year, but they get the Broncos in that game. Now. Despite a good performance against Carolina on Sunday, Denver has still been the third best matchup for opposing defenses this year. And if you look at across the fantasy football landscape and the percent roster numbers at defense, it's very hard to find a defense that's available in most leagues right now, at least one with a relatively decent matchup. But I do think that the Chargers overall, they work. In Week sixteen, the sixteen transaction this week that you can't get my fifteen transactions call him over on number fire dot com is to add traveon Williams. So I've got to say I've been waiting for this transaction. Williams was a production freak in college and someone that my model liked a lot. I've wanted him to get an opportunity, and he sort of kind of got that. In Week fourteen, Giovanni Bernard fumbled at the start of that game against the Cowboys, and the Bengals let Williams and Samaj p Ryan see work in that backfield. As a result, Williams played thirty seven and a half percent of the team snaps. P Ryan was at about thirty nine percent and Gio Bernard twenty four percent. I'm most intrigued by Williams because I think he's just the best player in that backfield all then on Sunday, in our limited sample, he had a fifty percent success rate. Pe Ryans was thirty percent and Bernard's was thirty three percent. But Williams also captured the best market share in that backfield. He had an eight percent target share and a forty eight percent running back rush share. Now, in week fifteen, you're not gonna be confident playing Travon Williams against Pittsburgh. There's no chance he should be in your lineup. But if you add him and the Bengals decide to use him more, which is absolutely possible, then you may feel confident enough playing him in week sixteen. Because Cincinnati gets Houston, that's arguably the best matchup in football right now. So I'd add Trayvon Williams this week just to see what happens. That's going to do it for today's show, though. Thanks to all of you for listening. If you've got subscribed to the Late Round podcast, make sure you are by searching for it pretty much anywhere podcasts can be found. You no forget to follow me on Twitter at Late Round QB. Thanks everyone, I'll talk to you tomorrow