Biden's Polling Dilemma; The Powell Pivot
On today's podcast:
1) President Joe Biden’s unprecedented actions to erase student-loan debt have fallen flat with the young voters in swing states he needs to win reelection, according to the latest Bloomberg News/Morning Consult poll.
2) After clashing in recent years, Wall Street traders and the Federal Reserve are – for once – broadly in sync: The great monetary pivot is near as central bankers engineer a once-unthinkable soft landing in the world’s largest economy.
3) House Republicans threatened the US Food and Drug Administration with a subpoena as they intensify scrutiny of the agency’s efforts to deal with quality problems with drugs made in India and China.
Full transcript:
Good morning. I'm Nathan Hager and I'm Karen Moscow. Here are the stories we're following today. We want to bring you fresh data now. In the twenty twenty four presidential race, a new Bloomberg News Morning Consul poll shows former President Donald Trump now ahead of President Biden in all seven of the swing states that are likely to decide next year's election. Trump leads forty seven to forty two percent across those states. That is outside this poll's margin of error of one percent. The survey finds President Biden failing to gain traction among suburban women in Michigan, young voters, and union households. He trails Trump in Michigan forty six to forty two percent. As concerns over inflation ride high. Council of Economic Advisor's chair Jared Bernstein tells Bloomberg that sentiment should improve as we get closer to election if we continue to maintain our progress lower prices, not just in the things I mentioned where they're actually coming down eggs, milk, toys, TVs, but also in areas of healthcare. That's the path that we need to stay on. We're not there yet, We're moving in the right direction. But how do we know that. Well, one thing we really need to see is for some of these sentiment indices to reflect that progress, and Jared Bernstein with the Council of Economic Advisors admits those sentiment indices have not gotten better yet. Well, Nathan, another demographic that's expressing concern is Generation Z. The Bloomberg Morning Console poll also finds many young voters in swing states don't think Biden is doing enough on student loan payments. However, Around University professor Wendy Schiller thinks former President Trump's support could wane as he re enters the spotlight. As he comes back into the limelight and independence are reminded of why they have not voted for Trump or Trump's surrogates in the last three elections. That's where I think the polling becomes more favorable, if you can put it that way, for Biden, in the sense that he is a chance to win those voters back into the Democratic camp at least at the present and Brown Universities. Wendy Schiller also says Democrats will need to improve their messaging to get Biden re elected in twenty twenty four. Well, another complication for the president, Karen the House has voted along party lines to formally authorize the impeachment inquiry into President Biden. This sets up a high profile clash with the White House over the investigation that's focused on Biden family finances and business dealings. House Oversight Chair James Comer spoke after the vote. We have a simple question that I think of no blooming majority of Americans have. What did the Bidens do to receive the tens of millions of dollars from our enemies around the world. Despite those accusations from Republican James Comer, Democrat Jamie Raskin says, the attacks on the president are baseless. They understand there's no real evidence to support any presidential offense here. They haven't even named what they think the crime is. House Democrat Jamie Raskin says the impeachment inquiry is purely about next year's election. Well, we turn to the markets now, Nathan and the monetary pivot that traders have been waiting for. After keeping interest on hold, the FED gave its clearest signal yet that its historic policy tightening campaign is over, projecting rate cuts in twenty twenty four, Fed heire J Powell's News Conference United, one of the biggest post meeting rallies in recent memory. The down closed at a record and the S and P gained one point four percent, but Powell did not entirely rule out tightening. Inflation has eased from its highs, and this has come without a significant increase in unemployment. That's very good news, but inflation is still too high ongoing progress and bringing it down is not assured, and the path forward is uncertain. Chairman Powell reiterated that the FED remains data dependent, but former Atlanta FED President Ans Lockhart says the Fed's tentatively DUBBSH stance, as he puts it, is appropriate at this time. It's clear that they're going into twenty twenty four with the idea that they will be cutting rate, and the summary of economic projections showed to range among fifteen of them from two cuts to four cuts, so it's not a really tight census yet. And former Atlanta FED President Dennis Lockhart says markets are reacting positively to Powell's stands, and the FED gets more data this morning with retail sales do at at eight thirty am Wall Street Time. Well Karen traders may be helping for smoother sailing on the NASDAG today. A system error forced some stock orders on the exchange to be canceled yesterday. Sources tell us Nasdaq's investigating an order entry issue that caused inaccuracies and delays. Although it did not resolve the issue before the end of trading yesterday, the Nasdaq says it will be ready today. Nathan, overseas, we get two major rate decisions from the Bank of England and European Central Bank. Bloomberg's Ewan Pots joins us from London with a preview. Good morning, Ewan, Good morning Karen, Nathan. They're calling it super Thursday with rate decisions from key central banks right across Europe. We've already had a surprise rate hike from Norway. Up next announcements from the ECB and the BOE. The risk of recession in the euro Area will be front of mind for Presidents Christine Legarde. We're here from the ECB at eight fifteen am Eastern time. But first up the Bank of England. Way's sticky inflation with a very sluggish economy. That UK right decision comes in two hours time in London. I'm Une Pots, Bloomberg Radio okay you and thank you. Elsewhere in Europe, UBS is stepping up efforts to recoup hundreds of millions in cash bonuses that Credit Sweeze paid to retain deal makers before it's collapse. Sources say UBS has contacted hundreds of bankers and offered some multi year payment plans as it tries to claw back a chunk of the one point two billion Swiss francs and restricted cash bonuses. One source says UBS is seeking to recover less than six hundred and fifty one million Swiss francs. Meanwhile, in Russia, Nathan President Vladimir Putin is speaking at his annual end of year news conference. He says inflation in Russia's running between seven and a half to eight percent and that Russian companies are paying back their foreign loans. Putin added his war aims in Ukraine remained the same and he does not expect to mobilize a second wave of troops right now. And it is time now for a look at some of the other stories making news around the world, and for that we're joined by Bloomberg, John Tunker, johncinb Morning, Good Morning. Care in the House and Senate have agreed to a massive defense bill. The story in this report from Washington and Bloomberg's Amy Morris. The House passed an eight hundred and eighty six billion dollar defense bill after bipartisan negotiations between the House and Senate. Hard right Republicans had tried to attach restrictions on abortions, transgender care, and diversity initiatives, but those didn't make it into the final bill. Republicans did score some victories, like requiring all promotions to be merit and performance based, outlawing the flying of the LGBTQ flag on military basis, and the teaching of critical race theory and drag show performances will also be banned on bass. Military personnel will also get a five point two percent pay increase in the new bill. Amy Morris, Bloomberg Radio. Negotiators continue to make progress on a border deal. The key negotiators have been meeting with the Department of Homeland Security Secretary Alejandro Mayorcis. Senator Chris Murphy if Connecticut been leading negotiations for the Democrats. As a real complicated set of law, but there's still no reason that we can't finish this by the time we wrap up for the year. Lawmakers are scheduled a head out of town as soon as tomorrow. The US working with allies to create a multinational effort to protect ships passing through the Red Sea. It's an effort to stem a surgeon attacks by hootie fighters that has provoked unease about commercial trade passing through one of the world's most vital waterways. A federal judge granted Donald Trump's request to pause the twenty twenty election obstruction case scheduled for trial at March well he presses a claim for sweeping immunity against criminal charges. US District Judge Tanya Chunkin at Washington pause the hearings and upcoming deadlines in the case while Trump appeals her earlier ruling denying him immunately from prosecution over events that took place while he was president. Industry regulators say California's risk of power shortfalls and blackouts has fallen as more renewable energy and batteries are added to its electric grid, but at the same time, they and such threats in New York have risen thanks to higher electricity demand and new restrictions on gas fire power plants. Global News twenty four hours a day and whenever you want it With Bloomberg News Now, I'm John Tucker and this is Bloomberg Karen. All right, John, thanks what we do bring you news throughout the day here on Bloomberg Radio. Just as John said, but now you can get the latest news on demand, and that means you can get it whenever you want it. Just subscribe to Bloomberg News Now to get the latest headlines at the click of a button. Get informed on your schedule. You can listen and subscribe to Bloomberg News Now on the Bloomberg Business app, Bloomberg dot Com plus Apples, Spotify, and anywhere else you get your podcasts. It is time now for the Bloomberg Sports Update. Here's John stash Hour, John Karen and Milwaukee on a night for the buckstar Jannis onto the Compo. He poured in sixty four points. That's as previous career high of fifty five. It's a Bucks team rerecord. They beat Indiana one forty to one twenty six. Jana's twenty of twenty eight from the field and twenty four of thirty two from the free throw line. He's the first player in NBA history to have twenty or more from both and shoot seventy percent or better in both. There was an incident after the game. Giannis went into the Pacers locker room to try to get the game ball, and there was apparently some kind of a melee that broke out. Wizards lost at home by twenty New Orleans one, with Brandon Ingram scoring forty, and the Wizards are now three and twenty. Lakers won only by three in San Antonio, when the Spurs have now lost eighteen games in a row. The NBA has suspended Raymond Green indefinitely, citing his repeated history of incident. Ruins lost in overtime at New Jersey two to one. It's the Chargers and Raiders tonight, kicking off Week fifteen, both teams with only five wins on the season a lot of injuries. Chargers without their quarterback Justin Herbert for the rest of the season in their top whiteout, Keenan Allen won't play tonight due to a foot injury. The Raiders have decided to stick with rookie quarterback Aidan O'Connell. Whiteout. Devonte Adams was questionable with an illness. The NFL has gave me Super Bowl sixty to Los Angeles. That's where the first Super Bowl was played, and the NFL says there'll be a regular season game played next year in South Paolo Brazil. John Stashewer Bloomberg Sports from coast to coast, from New York to San Francisco, Boston to Washington, DC, nationwide on Sirius Exam, the Bloomberg Business app, and Bloomberg dot Com. This is Bloomberg Daybreak. Good morning, I'm Nathan Hager. As we head into a twenty twenty four re election campaign for President Biden, he has been struggling to show voters that the policies that he's put forward, whether it's by partisan infrastructure, it's the Inflation Reduction Act and student debt relief, are working for the voters that he needs to win reelection. Those struggles are reflected in the latest Bloomberg News Morning Consult poll of swing states, just out this morning, and here with us to discuss it as Bloomberg News Politics reporter Gregory Cordy. Gregory, it's great to have you with us this morning. We just saw these numbers cross the Bloomberg terminal moments ago. I know this is an update right of the swing state pole that we conducted just a couple months ago. So what did we find. Yeah, actually, this is the third iteration of this pole. We've been doing it monthly and we're going to continue to do it monthly through the election next November. And what we're seeing is a slow but unmistakable movement in former President Donald Trump's direction in each of these seven swing states, or I should say these swing states collectively. But now for the first time in this poll every one of these seven swing states, Trump is now leading in Arizona, Georgia, Michigan, Nevada, North Carolina, Pennsylvania, Wisconsin. Michigan was the one that was tied the first two times we did this poll. Now President Trump is leading by four and so this is a pretty good poll for him, and it shows how President Biden continues to struggle, as you said, to convince voters that his economic policies are working. Yeah. To see the turnaround in President Biden's disfavor in Michigan is particularly notable when you think about how he's put himself out there as the most pro union president ever. He was the first president to walk a picket line in Michigan, and it doesn't seem at least from this polling that that's worked out for him thus far. Yeah, we took a particular interest in Michigan this month in part because it had been so close and now it seems to be leaning Trump. And you're absolutely right. It's a state that Biden absolutely needs to win. It's one of those blue wall industrial states that we talk about that are so important for Democrats, and it shows that Biden's really not improving among those union voters. Now. The unions themselves are pretty happy with Biden. Biden claims to mean it's pro union president in history. He walked the picket line with workers back when the United Auto Workers were on strike earlier this year, and that political support from the White House helped the UAW get a pretty good contract. But rank and file auto workers aren't necessarily listening to their union leadership on this, and we've seen union workers more willing to vote for Donald Trump, especially on these issues of trade and competition with China and immigration and other issues other than collective bargaining. President Trump has made inroads on It is fascinating to see how the former president continues to make inroads on these economic issues when we go by the data every day here on Bloomberg, and we're seeing the signs of improvement in the US economy pretty steadily. What does that say about this disconnect that we're seeing between the way the economy is going and how it's working out for this current president in his polling numbers. Yeah, you've absolutely put your finger on one of the central questions and frankly, one of the big riddles of this election year, as you say, the economic indicators are doing well, and yet Biden isn't getting credit for that. We see when we ask people how is the national economy doing, overwhelming numbers say that it's doing poorly in the seventy percents. But then when we ask people how their local economy is doing, how their state economy is doing, people are saying it's doing much better. And we're really trying to understand that disconnect between vote voter perceptions because the real that local economy is what people more often experience, and what they're saying is, yeah, I've got a job unemployment as low prices are coming down, wages are going up, and yet they look at the national economy and they still think that it's heading in the wrong direction. What that reflects is that they are continuing to associate present Biden with inflation being still too high compared to where we were before the pandemic, and people not exactly happy with where we are and continuing to be a little uncertain about which direction we're heading. I think about thirty seconds left here, Greg gree But are there any positive signs for President Biden in this polling? Well, inflation expectations continue to come down. We see that in a number of different poles, and we see it in this poll. We see people saying that the concerns about inflation are ebbing a little bit. And then we ask people, would you say that the prices that you paid for everyday goods like groceries and gas and so forth, are they going up or they going down? And fewer people say that they're going up. The people are seeing them starting to come down. It's probably not as much as the president would like to see, but some of these indicators are slowly heading in the right direction. It's Bloomberg Daybreak Today, your morning brief on the stories making news from Wall Street to Washington and beyond. Look for us on your podcast feed at six am Eastern each morning on Apples, Spotify, and anywhere else you get your podcasts. You can also listen live each morning starting at five am Wall Street Time on Bloomberg eleven three to zero in New York, Bloomberg ninety nine one in Washington, Bloomberg one oh sixty one in Boston, and Bloomberg ninety sixty in San Francisco. Our flagship New York station is also available on your Amazon Alexa devices. Just say Alexa Play Bloomberg eleven thirty plus. Listen coast to coast on the Bloomberg Business app, serriusxmb iHeartRadio app, and on Bloomberg dot Com. I'm Nathan Hager and I'm Karen Moscow. Join us again tomorrow morning for all the news you need to start your day right here on Bloomberg Daybreak
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Good morning. 0:00:03.080 --> 0:00:05.920 I'm Nathan Hager and I'm Karen Moscow. Here are the 0:00:05.960 --> 0:00:07.440 stories we're following today. 0:00:08.000 --> 0:00:09.880 We want to bring you fresh data now. In the 0:00:09.920 --> 0:00:13.200 twenty twenty four presidential race, a new Bloomberg News Morning 0:00:13.240 --> 0:00:17.079 Consul poll shows former President Donald Trump now ahead of 0:00:17.160 --> 0:00:20.000 President Biden in all seven of the swing states that 0:00:20.040 --> 0:00:23.480 are likely to decide next year's election. Trump leads forty 0:00:23.520 --> 0:00:26.759 seven to forty two percent across those states. That is 0:00:26.800 --> 0:00:30.040 outside this poll's margin of error of one percent. The 0:00:30.080 --> 0:00:33.559 survey finds President Biden failing to gain traction among suburban 0:00:33.600 --> 0:00:37.080 women in Michigan, young voters, and union households. He trails 0:00:37.080 --> 0:00:40.559 Trump in Michigan forty six to forty two percent. As 0:00:40.600 --> 0:00:45.000 concerns over inflation ride high. Council of Economic Advisor's chair 0:00:45.080 --> 0:00:48.440 Jared Bernstein tells Bloomberg that sentiment should improve as we 0:00:48.479 --> 0:00:49.920 get closer to election. 0:00:50.159 --> 0:00:55.600 If we continue to maintain our progress lower prices, not 0:00:55.840 --> 0:00:57.920 just in the things I mentioned where they're actually coming 0:00:57.960 --> 0:01:02.240 down eggs, milk, toys, TVs, but also in areas of healthcare. 0:01:02.360 --> 0:01:04.400 That's the path that we need to stay on. We're 0:01:04.400 --> 0:01:06.480 not there yet, We're moving in the right direction. But 0:01:06.520 --> 0:01:08.720 how do we know that. Well, one thing we really 0:01:08.760 --> 0:01:11.720 need to see is for some of these sentiment indices 0:01:11.760 --> 0:01:12.560 to reflect that. 0:01:12.640 --> 0:01:15.720 Progress, and Jared Bernstein with the Council of Economic Advisors 0:01:15.760 --> 0:01:18.759 admits those sentiment indices have not gotten better yet. 0:01:19.160 --> 0:01:23.560 Well, Nathan, another demographic that's expressing concern is Generation Z. 0:01:24.200 --> 0:01:27.680 The Bloomberg Morning Console poll also finds many young voters 0:01:27.720 --> 0:01:30.959 in swing states don't think Biden is doing enough on 0:01:31.120 --> 0:01:35.600 student loan payments. However, Around University professor Wendy Schiller thinks 0:01:35.640 --> 0:01:38.920 former President Trump's support could wane as he re enters 0:01:38.920 --> 0:01:39.600 the spotlight. 0:01:39.880 --> 0:01:42.800 As he comes back into the limelight and independence are 0:01:42.880 --> 0:01:45.760 reminded of why they have not voted for Trump or 0:01:45.800 --> 0:01:49.640 Trump's surrogates in the last three elections. That's where I 0:01:49.680 --> 0:01:52.920 think the polling becomes more favorable, if you can put 0:01:52.920 --> 0:01:55.240 it that way, for Biden, in the sense that he 0:01:55.280 --> 0:01:58.040 is a chance to win those voters back into the 0:01:58.080 --> 0:01:59.680 Democratic camp at least at the. 0:01:59.680 --> 0:02:03.760 Present and Brown Universities. Wendy Schiller also says Democrats will 0:02:03.760 --> 0:02:06.800 need to improve their messaging to get Biden re elected 0:02:06.880 --> 0:02:07.880 in twenty twenty four. 0:02:08.120 --> 0:02:10.840 Well, another complication for the president, Karen the House has 0:02:10.919 --> 0:02:15.080 voted along party lines to formally authorize the impeachment inquiry 0:02:15.120 --> 0:02:18.239 into President Biden. This sets up a high profile clash 0:02:18.280 --> 0:02:21.080 with the White House over the investigation that's focused on 0:02:21.080 --> 0:02:24.800 Biden family finances and business dealings. House Oversight Chair James 0:02:24.840 --> 0:02:26.359 Comer spoke after the vote. 0:02:26.400 --> 0:02:27.959 We have a simple question that I think of no 0:02:28.080 --> 0:02:31.040 blooming majority of Americans have. What did the Bidens do 0:02:31.280 --> 0:02:33.320 to receive the tens of millions of dollars from our 0:02:33.400 --> 0:02:34.400 enemies around the world. 0:02:34.600 --> 0:02:38.880 Despite those accusations from Republican James Comer, Democrat Jamie Raskin says, 0:02:38.919 --> 0:02:41.000 the attacks on the president are baseless. 0:02:41.240 --> 0:02:46.280 They understand there's no real evidence to support any presidential 0:02:46.320 --> 0:02:47.000 offense here. 0:02:47.240 --> 0:02:49.360 They haven't even named what they think the crime is. 0:02:49.520 --> 0:02:52.720 House Democrat Jamie Raskin says the impeachment inquiry is purely 0:02:52.760 --> 0:02:54.040 about next year's election. 0:02:54.480 --> 0:02:56.360 Well, we turn to the markets now, Nathan and the 0:02:56.400 --> 0:02:59.560 monetary pivot that traders have been waiting for. After keeping 0:02:59.560 --> 0:03:02.680 interest on hold, the FED gave its clearest signal yet 0:03:02.800 --> 0:03:06.040 that its historic policy tightening campaign is over, projecting rate 0:03:06.080 --> 0:03:09.119 cuts in twenty twenty four, Fed heire J Powell's News 0:03:09.160 --> 0:03:11.720 Conference United, one of the biggest post meeting rallies in 0:03:11.800 --> 0:03:14.360 recent memory. The down closed at a record and the 0:03:14.480 --> 0:03:17.360 S and P gained one point four percent, but Powell 0:03:17.400 --> 0:03:19.760 did not entirely rule out tightening. 0:03:20.120 --> 0:03:22.800 Inflation has eased from its highs, and this has come 0:03:22.840 --> 0:03:26.760 without a significant increase in unemployment. That's very good news, 0:03:27.280 --> 0:03:30.520 but inflation is still too high ongoing progress and bringing 0:03:30.520 --> 0:03:33.880 it down is not assured, and the path forward is uncertain. 0:03:34.200 --> 0:03:37.320 Chairman Powell reiterated that the FED remains data dependent, but 0:03:37.440 --> 0:03:41.120 former Atlanta FED President Ans Lockhart says the Fed's tentatively 0:03:41.240 --> 0:03:44.800 DUBBSH stance, as he puts it, is appropriate at this time. 0:03:45.240 --> 0:03:48.320 It's clear that they're going into twenty twenty four with 0:03:48.400 --> 0:03:50.880 the idea that they will be cutting rate, and the 0:03:51.080 --> 0:03:55.640 summary of economic projections showed to range among fifteen of 0:03:55.680 --> 0:03:58.600 them from two cuts to four cuts, so it's not 0:03:58.840 --> 0:04:00.960 a really tight census yet. 0:04:01.240 --> 0:04:03.960 And former Atlanta FED President Dennis Lockhart says markets are 0:04:04.000 --> 0:04:06.640 reacting positively to Powell's stands, and the FED gets more 0:04:06.720 --> 0:04:08.960 data this morning with retail sales do at at eight 0:04:09.000 --> 0:04:10.400 thirty am Wall Street Time. 0:04:10.520 --> 0:04:12.720 Well Karen traders may be helping for smoother sailing on 0:04:12.840 --> 0:04:16.320 the NASDAG today. A system error forced some stock orders 0:04:16.360 --> 0:04:19.520 on the exchange to be canceled yesterday. Sources tell us 0:04:19.560 --> 0:04:23.440 Nasdaq's investigating an order entry issue that caused inaccuracies and delays. 0:04:23.760 --> 0:04:25.840 Although it did not resolve the issue before the end 0:04:25.880 --> 0:04:29.320 of trading yesterday, the Nasdaq says it will be ready today. 0:04:29.760 --> 0:04:32.200 Nathan, overseas, we get two major rate decisions from the 0:04:32.240 --> 0:04:35.240 Bank of England and European Central Bank. Bloomberg's Ewan Pots 0:04:35.360 --> 0:04:38.760 joins us from London with a preview. Good morning, Ewan, Good. 0:04:38.520 --> 0:04:41.120 Morning Karen, Nathan. They're calling it super Thursday with rate 0:04:41.200 --> 0:04:44.239 decisions from key central banks right across Europe. We've already 0:04:44.240 --> 0:04:48.039 had a surprise rate hike from Norway. Up next announcements 0:04:48.040 --> 0:04:51.240 from the ECB and the BOE. The risk of recession 0:04:51.320 --> 0:04:53.479 in the euro Area will be front of mind for 0:04:53.560 --> 0:04:56.560 Presidents Christine Legarde. We're here from the ECB at eight 0:04:56.720 --> 0:05:00.120 fifteen am Eastern time. But first up the Bank of England. 0:05:00.160 --> 0:05:04.160 Way's sticky inflation with a very sluggish economy. That UK 0:05:04.279 --> 0:05:07.000 right decision comes in two hours time in London. I'm 0:05:07.040 --> 0:05:08.280 Une Pots, Bloomberg. 0:05:07.960 --> 0:05:10.640 Radio okay you and thank you. Elsewhere in Europe, UBS 0:05:10.720 --> 0:05:13.120 is stepping up efforts to recoup hundreds of millions in 0:05:13.160 --> 0:05:16.440 cash bonuses that Credit Sweeze paid to retain deal makers 0:05:16.480 --> 0:05:19.760 before it's collapse. Sources say UBS has contacted hundreds of 0:05:19.760 --> 0:05:22.080 bankers and offered some multi year payment plans as it 0:05:22.080 --> 0:05:24.280 tries to claw back a chunk of the one point 0:05:24.320 --> 0:05:28.120 two billion Swiss francs and restricted cash bonuses. One source 0:05:28.120 --> 0:05:30.520 says UBS is seeking to recover less than six hundred 0:05:30.560 --> 0:05:32.080 and fifty one million Swiss francs. 0:05:32.400 --> 0:05:35.839 Meanwhile, in Russia, Nathan President Vladimir Putin is speaking at 0:05:35.880 --> 0:05:38.560 his annual end of year news conference. He says inflation 0:05:38.600 --> 0:05:40.800 in Russia's running between seven and a half to eight 0:05:40.839 --> 0:05:44.640 percent and that Russian companies are paying back their foreign loans. 0:05:44.839 --> 0:05:47.719 Putin added his war aims in Ukraine remained the same 0:05:47.760 --> 0:05:50.039 and he does not expect to mobilize a second wave 0:05:50.080 --> 0:05:56.000 of troops right now. And it is time now for 0:05:56.000 --> 0:05:57.920 a look at some of the other stories making news 0:05:57.960 --> 0:05:59.880 around the world, and for that we're joined by Bloomberg, 0:06:00.120 --> 0:06:01.960 John Tunker, johncinb Morning. 0:06:02.200 --> 0:06:04.320 Good Morning. Care in the House and Senate have agreed 0:06:04.360 --> 0:06:07.520 to a massive defense bill. The story in this report 0:06:07.520 --> 0:06:09.800 from Washington and Bloomberg's Amy Morris. 0:06:09.839 --> 0:06:11.880 The House passed an eight hundred and eighty six billion 0:06:11.920 --> 0:06:15.480 dollar defense bill after bipartisan negotiations between the House and Senate. 0:06:15.800 --> 0:06:19.320 Hard right Republicans had tried to attach restrictions on abortions, 0:06:19.520 --> 0:06:22.800 transgender care, and diversity initiatives, but those didn't make it 0:06:22.800 --> 0:06:26.240 into the final bill. Republicans did score some victories, like 0:06:26.400 --> 0:06:30.160 requiring all promotions to be merit and performance based, outlawing 0:06:30.160 --> 0:06:33.359 the flying of the LGBTQ flag on military basis, and 0:06:33.440 --> 0:06:36.760 the teaching of critical race theory and drag show performances 0:06:36.839 --> 0:06:39.920 will also be banned on bass. Military personnel will also 0:06:40.000 --> 0:06:42.159 get a five point two percent pay increase in. 0:06:42.160 --> 0:06:42.720 The new bill. 0:06:42.920 --> 0:06:44.279 Amy Morris, Bloomberg Radio. 0:06:44.480 --> 0:06:48.240 Negotiators continue to make progress on a border deal. The 0:06:48.320 --> 0:06:51.279 key negotiators have been meeting with the Department of Homeland 0:06:51.320 --> 0:06:55.880 Security Secretary Alejandro Mayorcis. Senator Chris Murphy if Connecticut been 0:06:55.960 --> 0:06:57.960 leading negotiations for the Democrats. 0:06:58.080 --> 0:07:02.440 As a real complicated set of law, but there's still 0:07:02.480 --> 0:07:05.479 no reason that we can't finish this by the time 0:07:05.480 --> 0:07:06.280 we wrap up. 0:07:06.200 --> 0:07:07.039 For the year. 0:07:07.440 --> 0:07:09.920 Lawmakers are scheduled a head out of town as soon 0:07:09.960 --> 0:07:12.720 as tomorrow. The US working with allies to create a 0:07:12.800 --> 0:07:15.960 multinational effort to protect ships passing through the Red Sea. 0:07:16.480 --> 0:07:19.000 It's an effort to stem a surgeon attacks by hootie 0:07:19.000 --> 0:07:22.680 fighters that has provoked unease about commercial trade passing through 0:07:22.920 --> 0:07:26.480 one of the world's most vital waterways. A federal judge 0:07:26.480 --> 0:07:29.600 granted Donald Trump's request to pause the twenty twenty election 0:07:29.680 --> 0:07:32.920 obstruction case scheduled for trial at March well he presses 0:07:32.960 --> 0:07:36.960 a claim for sweeping immunity against criminal charges. US District 0:07:37.040 --> 0:07:40.480 Judge Tanya Chunkin at Washington pause the hearings and upcoming 0:07:40.520 --> 0:07:43.800 deadlines in the case while Trump appeals her earlier ruling 0:07:44.240 --> 0:07:48.000 denying him immunately from prosecution over events that took place 0:07:48.080 --> 0:07:52.280 while he was president. Industry regulators say California's risk of 0:07:52.360 --> 0:07:56.160 power shortfalls and blackouts has fallen as more renewable energy 0:07:56.200 --> 0:07:58.920 and batteries are added to its electric grid, but at 0:07:58.920 --> 0:08:01.400 the same time, they and such threats in New York 0:08:01.520 --> 0:08:05.600 have risen thanks to higher electricity demand and new restrictions 0:08:05.840 --> 0:08:09.400 on gas fire power plants. Global News twenty four hours 0:08:09.440 --> 0:08:12.239 a day and whenever you want it With Bloomberg News Now, 0:08:12.480 --> 0:08:15.080 I'm John Tucker and this is Bloomberg Karen. 0:08:15.120 --> 0:08:16.840 All right, John, thanks what we do bring you news 0:08:16.840 --> 0:08:20.440 throughout the day here on Bloomberg Radio. Just as John said, 0:08:20.480 --> 0:08:23.840 but now you can get the latest news on demand, 0:08:23.880 --> 0:08:26.760 and that means you can get it whenever you want it. 0:08:27.160 --> 0:08:30.400 Just subscribe to Bloomberg News Now to get the latest 0:08:30.400 --> 0:08:33.480 headlines at the click of a button. Get informed on 0:08:33.559 --> 0:08:37.280 your schedule. You can listen and subscribe to Bloomberg News 0:08:37.320 --> 0:08:41.679 Now on the Bloomberg Business app, Bloomberg dot Com plus Apples, Spotify, 0:08:42.120 --> 0:08:48.960 and anywhere else you get your podcasts. It is time 0:08:49.000 --> 0:08:53.440 now for the Bloomberg Sports Update. Here's John stash Hour, John. 0:08:53.520 --> 0:08:56.520 Karen and Milwaukee on a night for the buckstar Jannis 0:08:56.559 --> 0:08:59.800 onto the Compo. He poured in sixty four points. That's 0:09:00.080 --> 0:09:03.080 as previous career high of fifty five. It's a Bucks 0:09:03.080 --> 0:09:06.480 team rerecord. They beat Indiana one forty to one twenty six. 0:09:06.880 --> 0:09:10.200 Jana's twenty of twenty eight from the field and twenty 0:09:10.240 --> 0:09:12.480 four of thirty two from the free throw line. He's 0:09:12.480 --> 0:09:15.280 the first player in NBA history to have twenty or 0:09:15.320 --> 0:09:19.000 more from both and shoot seventy percent or better in both. 0:09:19.000 --> 0:09:22.320 There was an incident after the game. Giannis went into 0:09:22.360 --> 0:09:24.960 the Pacers locker room to try to get the game ball, 0:09:25.080 --> 0:09:28.160 and there was apparently some kind of a melee that 0:09:28.360 --> 0:09:31.920 broke out. Wizards lost at home by twenty New Orleans one, 0:09:31.960 --> 0:09:34.520 with Brandon Ingram scoring forty, and the Wizards are now 0:09:34.600 --> 0:09:38.400 three and twenty. Lakers won only by three in San Antonio, 0:09:38.400 --> 0:09:40.839 when the Spurs have now lost eighteen games in a row. 0:09:41.080 --> 0:09:46.040 The NBA has suspended Raymond Green indefinitely, citing his repeated 0:09:46.240 --> 0:09:49.920 history of incident. Ruins lost in overtime at New Jersey 0:09:50.040 --> 0:09:53.320 two to one. It's the Chargers and Raiders tonight, kicking 0:09:53.360 --> 0:09:55.640 off Week fifteen, both teams with only five wins on 0:09:55.679 --> 0:09:58.559 the season a lot of injuries. Chargers without their quarterback 0:09:58.720 --> 0:10:00.720 Justin Herbert for the rest of the season in their 0:10:00.720 --> 0:10:03.080 top whiteout, Keenan Allen won't play tonight due to a 0:10:03.120 --> 0:10:05.839 foot injury. The Raiders have decided to stick with rookie 0:10:05.880 --> 0:10:07.199 quarterback Aidan O'Connell. 0:10:07.440 --> 0:10:07.800 Whiteout. 0:10:07.840 --> 0:10:11.160 Devonte Adams was questionable with an illness. The NFL has 0:10:11.160 --> 0:10:14.040 gave me Super Bowl sixty to Los Angeles. That's where 0:10:14.040 --> 0:10:16.720 the first Super Bowl was played, and the NFL says 0:10:16.720 --> 0:10:19.360 there'll be a regular season game played next year in 0:10:19.480 --> 0:10:23.040 South Paolo Brazil. John Stashewer Bloomberg Sports. 0:10:25.400 --> 0:10:28.400 From coast to coast, from New York to San Francisco, 0:10:28.720 --> 0:10:33.360 Boston to Washington, DC, nationwide on Sirius Exam, the Bloomberg 0:10:33.400 --> 0:10:37.600 Business app, and Bloomberg dot Com. This is Bloomberg Daybreak. 0:10:38.640 --> 0:10:40.920 Good morning, I'm Nathan Hager. As we head into a 0:10:41.000 --> 0:10:44.040 twenty twenty four re election campaign for President Biden, he 0:10:44.120 --> 0:10:46.440 has been struggling to show voters that the policies that 0:10:46.480 --> 0:10:48.839 he's put forward, whether it's by partisan infrastructure, it's the 0:10:48.880 --> 0:10:52.320 Inflation Reduction Act and student debt relief, are working for 0:10:52.400 --> 0:10:56.280 the voters that he needs to win reelection. Those struggles 0:10:56.440 --> 0:10:59.600 are reflected in the latest Bloomberg News Morning Consult poll 0:10:59.640 --> 0:11:02.720 of swing states, just out this morning, and here with 0:11:02.800 --> 0:11:06.760 us to discuss it as Bloomberg News Politics reporter Gregory Cordy. Gregory, 0:11:06.760 --> 0:11:09.080 it's great to have you with us this morning. We 0:11:09.200 --> 0:11:12.960 just saw these numbers cross the Bloomberg terminal moments ago. 0:11:13.240 --> 0:11:15.360 I know this is an update right of the swing 0:11:15.400 --> 0:11:18.000 state pole that we conducted just a couple months ago. 0:11:18.080 --> 0:11:21.120 So what did we find. Yeah, actually, this is the 0:11:21.160 --> 0:11:23.560 third iteration of this pole. We've been doing it monthly 0:11:23.559 --> 0:11:25.400 and we're going to continue to do it monthly through 0:11:25.520 --> 0:11:29.240 the election next November. And what we're seeing is a 0:11:29.679 --> 0:11:35.120 slow but unmistakable movement in former President Donald Trump's direction 0:11:35.400 --> 0:11:38.720 in each of these seven swing states, or I should 0:11:38.760 --> 0:11:42.120 say these swing states collectively. But now for the first 0:11:42.160 --> 0:11:46.880 time in this poll every one of these seven swing states, 0:11:47.280 --> 0:11:53.359 Trump is now leading in Arizona, Georgia, Michigan, Nevada, North Carolina, Pennsylvania, Wisconsin. 0:11:53.800 --> 0:11:56.560 Michigan was the one that was tied the first two 0:11:56.559 --> 0:11:59.400 times we did this poll. Now President Trump is leading 0:11:59.440 --> 0:12:02.760 by four and so this is a pretty good poll 0:12:02.800 --> 0:12:05.920 for him, and it shows how President Biden continues to struggle, 0:12:06.000 --> 0:12:09.959 as you said, to convince voters that his economic policies 0:12:10.000 --> 0:12:10.880 are working. Yeah. 0:12:10.920 --> 0:12:16.319 To see the turnaround in President Biden's disfavor in Michigan 0:12:16.920 --> 0:12:20.319 is particularly notable when you think about how he's put 0:12:20.400 --> 0:12:23.560 himself out there as the most pro union president ever. 0:12:23.600 --> 0:12:26.400 He was the first president to walk a picket line 0:12:26.880 --> 0:12:29.480 in Michigan, and it doesn't seem at least from this 0:12:29.559 --> 0:12:31.800 polling that that's worked out for him thus far. 0:12:33.160 --> 0:12:36.400 Yeah, we took a particular interest in Michigan this month 0:12:37.040 --> 0:12:40.960 in part because it had been so close and now 0:12:41.480 --> 0:12:44.600 it seems to be leaning Trump. And you're absolutely right. 0:12:44.640 --> 0:12:48.120 It's a state that Biden absolutely needs to win. It's 0:12:48.160 --> 0:12:50.679 one of those blue wall industrial states that we talk 0:12:50.720 --> 0:12:54.880 about that are so important for Democrats, and it shows 0:12:54.920 --> 0:12:59.960 that Biden's really not improving among those union voters. Now. 0:13:00.280 --> 0:13:04.160 The unions themselves are pretty happy with Biden. Biden claims 0:13:04.160 --> 0:13:06.520 to mean it's pro union president in history. He walked 0:13:06.559 --> 0:13:09.679 the picket line with workers back when the United Auto 0:13:09.679 --> 0:13:15.040 Workers were on strike earlier this year, and that political 0:13:15.080 --> 0:13:17.920 support from the White House helped the UAW get a 0:13:18.040 --> 0:13:22.800 pretty good contract. But rank and file auto workers aren't 0:13:22.840 --> 0:13:26.160 necessarily listening to their union leadership on this, and we've 0:13:26.200 --> 0:13:29.960 seen union workers more willing to vote for Donald Trump, 0:13:30.080 --> 0:13:33.840 especially on these issues of trade and competition with China 0:13:33.880 --> 0:13:38.520 and immigration and other issues other than collective bargaining. President 0:13:38.559 --> 0:13:39.679 Trump has made inroads on. 0:13:40.200 --> 0:13:44.400 It is fascinating to see how the former president continues 0:13:44.440 --> 0:13:48.240 to make inroads on these economic issues when we go 0:13:48.480 --> 0:13:51.400 by the data every day here on Bloomberg, and we're 0:13:51.440 --> 0:13:56.800 seeing the signs of improvement in the US economy pretty steadily. 0:13:57.640 --> 0:13:58.920 What does that say. 0:13:58.640 --> 0:14:02.320 About this disconnect that we're seeing between the way the 0:14:02.360 --> 0:14:06.400 economy is going and how it's working out for this 0:14:06.559 --> 0:14:09.359 current president in his polling numbers. 0:14:10.000 --> 0:14:12.760 Yeah, you've absolutely put your finger on one of the 0:14:12.800 --> 0:14:16.800 central questions and frankly, one of the big riddles of 0:14:16.840 --> 0:14:19.520 this election year, as you say, the economic indicators are 0:14:19.520 --> 0:14:23.400 doing well, and yet Biden isn't getting credit for that. 0:14:23.840 --> 0:14:26.320 We see when we ask people how is the national 0:14:26.360 --> 0:14:31.000 economy doing, overwhelming numbers say that it's doing poorly in 0:14:31.160 --> 0:14:34.840 the seventy percents. But then when we ask people how 0:14:34.880 --> 0:14:37.680 their local economy is doing, how their state economy is doing, 0:14:37.680 --> 0:14:40.400 people are saying it's doing much better. And we're really 0:14:40.400 --> 0:14:44.560 trying to understand that disconnect between vote voter perceptions because 0:14:44.600 --> 0:14:49.480 the real that local economy is what people more often experience, 0:14:49.600 --> 0:14:52.720 and what they're saying is, yeah, I've got a job 0:14:52.800 --> 0:14:56.240 unemployment as low prices are coming down, wages are going up, 0:14:56.680 --> 0:14:59.080 and yet they look at the national economy and they 0:14:59.120 --> 0:15:02.440 still think that it's heading in the wrong direction. What 0:15:02.480 --> 0:15:08.280 that reflects is that they are continuing to associate present 0:15:08.280 --> 0:15:11.920 Biden with inflation being still too high compared to where 0:15:11.920 --> 0:15:15.440 we were before the pandemic, and people not exactly happy 0:15:15.640 --> 0:15:17.920 with where we are and continuing to be a little 0:15:18.040 --> 0:15:19.920 uncertain about which direction we're heading. 0:15:20.200 --> 0:15:22.200 I think about thirty seconds left here, Greg gree But 0:15:22.200 --> 0:15:24.840 are there any positive signs for President Biden in this polling? 0:15:25.920 --> 0:15:28.720 Well, inflation expectations continue to come down. We see that 0:15:28.760 --> 0:15:30.080 in a number of different poles, and we see it 0:15:30.160 --> 0:15:34.920 in this poll. We see people saying that the concerns 0:15:34.920 --> 0:15:36.960 about inflation are ebbing a little bit. And then we 0:15:37.040 --> 0:15:39.160 ask people, would you say that the prices that you 0:15:39.240 --> 0:15:43.200 paid for everyday goods like groceries and gas and so forth, 0:15:43.240 --> 0:15:45.960 are they going up or they going down? And fewer 0:15:46.000 --> 0:15:48.720 people say that they're going up. The people are seeing 0:15:48.760 --> 0:15:51.280 them starting to come down. It's probably not as much 0:15:51.360 --> 0:15:54.360 as the president would like to see, but some of 0:15:54.360 --> 0:15:57.080 these indicators are slowly heading in the right direction. 0:16:00.000 --> 0:16:03.200 It's Bloomberg Daybreak Today, your morning brief on the stories 0:16:03.240 --> 0:16:06.200 making news from Wall Street to Washington and beyond. 0:16:06.480 --> 0:16:09.240 Look for us on your podcast feed at six am 0:16:09.320 --> 0:16:13.000 Eastern each morning on Apples, Spotify, and anywhere else you 0:16:13.040 --> 0:16:14.240 get your podcasts. 0:16:14.360 --> 0:16:17.040 You can also listen live each morning starting at five 0:16:17.080 --> 0:16:19.680 am Wall Street Time on Bloomberg eleven three to zero 0:16:19.760 --> 0:16:23.200 in New York, Bloomberg ninety nine one in Washington, Bloomberg 0:16:23.240 --> 0:16:26.240 one oh sixty one in Boston, and Bloomberg ninety sixty 0:16:26.360 --> 0:16:27.320 in San Francisco. 0:16:27.680 --> 0:16:30.840 Our flagship New York station is also available on your 0:16:30.920 --> 0:16:36.240 Amazon Alexa devices. Just say Alexa Play Bloomberg eleven thirty plus. 0:16:36.360 --> 0:16:39.920 Listen coast to coast on the Bloomberg Business app, serriusxmb 0:16:40.120 --> 0:16:44.160 iHeartRadio app, and on Bloomberg dot Com. I'm Nathan Hager. 0:16:43.960 --> 0:16:47.080 And I'm Karen Moscow. Join us again tomorrow morning for 0:16:47.200 --> 0:16:49.720 all the news you need to start your day right 0:16:49.760 --> 0:17:00.400 here on Bloomberg Daybreak