Upset Week in the Power 4 Conferences, #2 Nebraska Stuns #7 Wisconsin in 3

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Hi volleyball fans and welcome back to Volley Talk, the podcast created for volleyball lovers

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who want to dig deep into what's going on in NCAA and international volleyball. I'm your host Sarah

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Pavin, I'm an Olympian, beach volleyball world champion, former Nebraska Cornhusker, and longtime

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pro both indoor and on the beach. And I'm Adam Schultz, former indoor player, international

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volleyball coach, and stats guru. Last week was upset week all over the Power 4 conferences and

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we also had a fan favorite match between Nebraska and Wisconsin in Madison. Let's get started.

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The week started off with Washington beating number 10 Oregon in five. This was just the beginning of

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the chaos that was going to ensue in NCAA volleyball this week. We had several players from

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Washington play really well. We had Keuni Fletcher hit four for the first time in the game and then

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we had the

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several players from Washington play really well. We had Keuni Fletcher hit 455. We had

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Kirsten Barton hit 333 and Julia Hunt hit 500. Those are some decent numbers. I found the most

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interesting part of that match was that Washington took the lead early in both the fourth and the

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fifth sets and never gave up the lead. It was a really strong performance for them at the end of

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the match. We also had number 13 Arizona State beat number 22 Utah Handley 3-0 and number 16 Georgia

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Tech beat number 25 UNC in a close five-set match. And now we get to the real shockers. On Friday,

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number five Stanford lost in five to Miami. We will talk about this briefly but they did recover on

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Sunday with a four-set win over number 23 Florida State. Both of these matches were on the road.

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The Stanford Miami match was very weird. The only thing I can say is that the top teams

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need to not go to five sets. They have to work to be efficient in three or four because you never

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know what's going to happen in that fifth set. You had Grace Lopez for Miami hit 407 on 54 balls

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in that match and I mean you were watching the blocking. What did you think? She was having one

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of those matches that nothing could go wrong. Honestly the five setters this season are the

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NCAA giant killers because like Grace Lopez was playing pretty well the whole match and then in

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the fifth set I'm watching this happening. Stanford has got a solid block in her face every time.

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They're getting great touches on these swings that just happened to go out. That just happened to

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catch their hand wrong. For all intents and purposes Grace Lopez should have been shut down hard

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on seven balls in the fifth set. And she scored on all of them. But she scored on all of them.

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They just missed the sideline or like Stanford's block was good. It was solid. It was set up right

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but it was just one of those games that you almost felt bad for Stanford because

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they had no business losing it honestly. Miami was out of system for 70% of the fifth set.

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I don't think I saw their setter set a ball inside of 13 feet the whole match.

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And I mean you have to give Miami credit where credit is due. They pushed the match to five.

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They did play well. They battled hard. They gave themselves a chance but that was Stanford's game

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to lose I thought. Okay. I don't like granted Miami was setting every single ball from like

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the baseline but their hitters know how to hit out of system. I will give them that. Fair. I will say

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you know they have a lot of international players who play for their national teams. You do see in

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the international game players tend to be a little more confident and adept at hitting those out of

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system balls and finding ways to score when they're in trouble. Those players for Miami they did that

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and I don't know if they're just in practice. To be honest I haven't seen them play. I don't know if

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they're in practice for hitting out of system if that's like the norm for them but they were

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fearless. They were taking big swings on uncomfortable plays so that was a positive.

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I could not help but feel bad for Stanford though because like Sammy Francis their middle she was

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she was virtually unstoppable on both sides of the ball. Correct. Offensively and from the blocking

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side she was outstanding. I did think Ilya Rubin was a little streaky like she had moments where

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she was just like flying high and was looking so good and then she would like make a couple weird

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errors in a row. Also it looked like they were playing in a high school gym. Stanford was

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ricocheting balls off of that ceiling like crazy. It's definitely a factor if you're not used to

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playing with a ceiling that low however it's probably something that by the end of the match

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you should have adjusted to. I don't it's not an excuse for them losing in my opinion. No I mean

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there is something to be said for playing in that environment often and being used to that like

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early in the match it definitely I think it did get better early in the match it was happening a

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lot but yeah all that being said like when I saw the result I was shocked that Stanford lost to

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Miami so I went and watched it and it was unfortunate because Stanford was doing the

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right things to be able to win and they got some really unfortunate bounces off of the block I

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thought. To me the takeaway after that match is hey we needed to take care of that match in four

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so that you have control of whether a player gets hot like nobody gets hot for 25 points you know

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so that would be my takeaway for Stanford. And that's the thing they had no business losing that

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fourth set. Correct. They were up 24 22 in the fourth and then it just they let the foot off the

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foot off the gas for just a second and then all of a sudden they're going back and forth to like

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what was it 30 28 or something. 31 29 yeah. Yeah so they should have finished it in four again you

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have to give Miami credit for making do and for like finding a way to gut it out but yeah that

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one was unfortunate. Number nine Texas is going through it ladies and gentlemen they lost both

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of their matches this week both of them at home both of them in five they lost to two unranked

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opponents in Missouri and Oklahoma they are now 0 and 5 in five set matches this season yet another

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example the ranked teams need to stop going five for their own safety. After the Missouri loss

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that was the first time that Texas had lost three home matches in a season since 2006.

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We're talking since your girl Sarah P that's me played that's a long time ago I couldn't even

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find any data on the last time they lost four matches at home in a season this is wild. You

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beat them at home in 2006 didn't you? Yes. I just I just thought I'd throw that in there.

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I mean I wasn't going to say anything but since you brought it up yes. And and I don't we don't

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need to get into the specifics of that match because we we looked at Texas in depth last week

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but to me it was a microcosm of the same issues they are relying on two players they're setting

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80 percent of their balls to those two players and don't get me wrong Madison is incredible

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she's playing really well she's the only reason they're in those matches but it's really hard

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to carry your team match in and match out especially when you go to five because that

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just allows teams to get a read on the setter the situation to find the timing on the block

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it makes your life really difficult. Literally nothing changed from last week to this week. I

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will say against Oklahoma it looked like they switched to a five-way tie.

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They switched to a five-one with Avery Carlson. Ella Swindle who was a starter on the national

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championship team last year did not play. I don't know if she was injured if that was you know a

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tactical decision to be like the 6-2 is not cutting it so we need to change something.

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Devon Kahahaua also didn't play I mean she entered every single set but I mean Rutherford is

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their go-to opposite. Madison Skinner's numbers against Oklahoma she hit 122 so I mean she had

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a lot of points but the efficiency she was making a lot of errors and actually against Oklahoma

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Texas was out blocked 17 to 10. So I think that kind of tells a story about the the errors

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offensively on Texas's side but like in the Missouri game which we did watch it really

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looked like Missouri's outsides the game plan was to just swing high seam every ball. They did not

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try to do anything else and Texas's defense didn't adjust. All they needed to do was slide

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their six back into the seam of the block they would have had double digit more digs over top

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of that block and their coaching staff just didn't make an adjustment. The six stayed in the same

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place I didn't see anything change in those matches and I was shocked. It was really disappointing to

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be honest and just hearing Jared Elliott's feedback after the Texas A&M loss last week

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his statement was oh we made too many hitting errors and it's like yeah no kidding Jared but

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like you're saying what the end result is like why aren't we examining the cause of that and like

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after we watched the Texas A&M match it was like your setting was not putting your hitters in a

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position to be successful. Sure you they were making a lot of errors but like you're fixating

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on the end result instead of like the process into what got you there and it just seems like

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that was a lot of number crunching instead of really looking over the game film and making

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the change that needed to be made because we saw it against Missouri nothing changed. So my question

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to you is the setter selection for the second match do you think that was message sending or

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do you think they chose the setter they thought would give them the best chance to win that match?

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Texas is in a position that they can't mess around right now so I think if it wasn't an injury

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decision I think it was a decision to try to be as successful as possible because honestly when

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we have been watching Texas Ellis Wendell is not connecting with the hitters at all with nobody

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it's been very strange to see so I think Carlson was their choice to try to get them a win because

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at this point they can't afford to make any more mistakes. And then in fairness to the setters

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they're only setting two rotations each they're leaving the right side in to set they're going

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through two rotations coming out that's that's a tough ask for a setter you have no chance to

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find a rhythm. Well Reagan Rutherford is serving and then she's setting. And I'm sorry her serve is

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not good enough she's not scoring that many points on her serve to not have a setter in there to run

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your offense I just that doesn't make any sense to me. My theory is that Ellis Wendell has the

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yips that's my theory because what there is no reason why you shouldn't be bringing your setter

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in to serve when Rutherford has like a pretty standard by the book jump float serve it's not

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like she's going up and hammering spin serves and getting aces so my theory is Wendell has the yips

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she's having trouble with her serve they're not sure what to do and here we are. So let's move into

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our feature matches for the week we're going to look at number 13 Arizona State beating number

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20 BYU in five and then because everybody wants it Nebraska crushed Wisconsin 3-0 so we'll talk

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about that even though I'm not sure how much there is to say. Yeah I don't think anybody expected that

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3-0 beat down but everybody loves that matchup so we're gonna dive in. We're gonna start off with

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Arizona State against BYU we haven't seen Arizona State play yet this year and since they're like

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among the top of the big 12 we wanted to check things out. BYU is a pretty hostile environment

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normally so we figured this would be a good test to see Arizona State play. Now I heard there weren't

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as many people there as they normally are. Too busy trick-or-treating. Well that's fair but I

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I really liked Arizona State as a team I thought they did a really good job. Argentina Ng the

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setter I thought she played really well I liked the offense that she ran. I thought Savannah

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Coleheed played incredibly well as a middle she hit 667 she was incredibly effective. I thought

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she blocked pretty well. I was impressed with Jelly Sear she didn't hit super efficiently in

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that match she was only 188 however she passes really well she hits out of the back row she

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plays defense really well and so kind of as an all-around six rotation player I thought she

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brought a lot of stability to that team. Yeah my ASU standouts were actually the Libero Mary Shroll

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the outside Jelly Sear and Savannah Coleheed as well. I agree with you I think Jelly Sear is like

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the perfect outside hitter number two the perfect ball control outside. The thing about ASU though

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is I don't think they have a true point scoring left side. And I think that's where Argentina Ng

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really impressed me was when you don't have a stud that you can set all the time how you run your

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offense in the position you put your hitters in is becomes more important and I thought she did a

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good job of that. I think when everything is in system ASU runs an incredibly fast offense.

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I agree probably the fastest that we've seen so far yeah and when things are smooth and in system

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Argentina Ng sets very well. I think as soon as the passes or the digs start to come off the net

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a little bit she tries so hard to maintain that tempo but she doesn't give the ball any shape

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which you need when you're moving off the net and you saw the balls kind of like die really early

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and the hitters were having trouble kind of like hitting those balls. I think when everything is

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smooth and all is good yeah she is setting outstanding but she's making life really difficult

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with that tempo she wants to run when things aren't perfect. Correct me if I'm wrong but that

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only happens to the left side. I feel she runs the the middle slide pipe pretty well regardless of

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the situation and I agree that the left side set is really fast when she's off the net. I'm also

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kind of confused about what they're doing with Argentina Ng their setter. They bring in their

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backup setter to be a serving specialist and a ds and in those situations I'm pretty sure it's an

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audible in the moment if Argentina Ng feels like setting or hitting and you could see some

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miscommunication at times as to who is actually setting and quite frankly the or Ng was not an

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efficient hitter. It's like a fun twist I guess keep people on their toes but like it's causing

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more problems than it's worth. That I agree with she was negative 111 on the attacks that she made

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and not having a system or understanding what you're trying to do I think just causes more

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confusion than it's worth. The other part is Roberto Rubella who comes in in the front row

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occasionally I thought played really well and swung you know 438 on the 16 balls that she hit.

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She was a good factor for that team when she came in. The Brazilian right side? Correct. Yes.

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I think she was pretty effective for them. Going back to what you're saying about the setter

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I think when ASU can run the middle they are very good when the middle is an option. Both Claire

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Jeter and Savannah Coleheed are outstanding. I think they were very difficult to stop but as

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soon as the middle becomes a non-option which is dictated by the pass or the dig that's when the

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wheels kind of fell off and the connection there between the speed set location etc it kind of fell

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apart. And I don't disagree with you on that I wouldn't say she's the best out of system setter

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but they were in system enough and I really liked her total distribution in terms of how she used

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her hitters and I mean no setter is going to be perfect at everything that's her weakness but I

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thought for the most part her distribution and the decision she made were quite good.

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I think overall though the story of the game came down to serve and pass. When we're looking at the

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serving numbers Arizona State had eight aces and 11 errors. BYU had only two aces and 13

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errors and I will say like as the sets were progressing it was very clear early which team

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was going to win the set because the passing would break down immediately and like the teams

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didn't really do a good job of recovering their side out or their serve receive ability like as

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the set progressed it was just like blocks of time where the passing just disappeared.

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Well and you saw it because once the fourth and the fifth set hit Arizona never gave up the lead.

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They were in control the whole time winning 25-14 and 25 or 15-7 in the fifth and BYU just couldn't

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they couldn't match them. In the fourth set they hit 0-67 and in the fifth set they hit 2-11 and

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Arizona was 300 and 300 plus in both of those sets they just couldn't keep up.

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I think another thing is that BYU is very very dependent on one hitter in Claire Little.

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I think early in the match she was almost unstoppable. She was hitting everything and

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I have a lot of respect for that because she wasn't being given great sets all the time but she

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she knows her role she knows her job is to score points and she was just going for it.

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She hits a heavy ball that Arizona State was having a really hard time controlling particularly

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early but I think Arizona State made a great defensive adjustment on her as the match progressed

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in that when Claire Little was getting set out of system the libero was dropping almost into

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the corner in position five and they had the off blocker the left side come all the way completely

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behind the 10-foot line. They were giving her a sharp angle because out of system Little was

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really hammering hard angle and they just couldn't cover it with just the libero but then when she

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was in system they had the libero come up and straddle the 10-foot line and the off blocker

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left side was coming in directly for tips and I think that that adjustment because they were

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playing her straight up traditional the same look no matter what the situation was early but that

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adjustment being able to identify when Little was in system versus out of system they got so many

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more chances on her and that was the difference I thought. And that's where I thought that jelly

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and the libero did a really good job being on the same page covering the court and getting chances.

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The other thing that Arizona State did was they served her a ton. She struggled to pass. They

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weren't aces but high around the attack line working for that out of system ball so that they

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could be in those positions and they came at her relentlessly. I will say middle blocker Brielle

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Camovore also played really well. I thought that she was a great offensive weapon for BYU too. I

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just think at this point in time BYU is a little one-dimensional and a little too reliant on Claire

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Little. Like that is a lot of weight to put on one player offensively. She does a great job. I think

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she's handling it well. She's scoring very well but she's getting over two times the amount of

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sets. I think during the broadcast we heard that she has had almost 400 more sets than the second

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highest attacker on her team. Well in this match she had 52 attempts and the next closest person

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had 28 who was Ellie Mortenson who I thought struggled in that match. For them to beat good

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teams she needs to be a weapon and she... Well her or the right side. Yeah she hit 107. It just

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wasn't good enough. Everybody knew when they needed a point who was getting set and that's

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that's a hard load to carry. I do want to give a shout out though to Hannah Billeter on BYU. She is

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one of the serving subs slash DS. When she's serving that is a great rotation for BYU. She

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doesn't always get aces but she's putting teams in trouble and I would say that that is their most

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efficient sort of defensive transition rotation and they're scoring the most points when Billeter

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is serving and I've noticed that across like multiple matches now. The other thing to remember

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is that I think BYU was very young so Claire Little is doing a good job of handling the pressure

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but I think as a team they will grow. BYU plays a lot of five set matches.

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They will get better as the season goes on and they'll be even better next year. I mean this was

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another example of a team that kind of recruited young high school kids versus a team that recruited

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from the portal and Arizona State has a lot of graduate students, a lot of upperclassmen,

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a lot of them from other schools. It was interesting. I think BYU definitely does have a bright future.

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It was good to see Arizona State play. I'm very very curious to see how they handle Kansas next

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week. That's going to be a fun match to watch. And it is fun to see how fast of an offense they run

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because it's faster than anything we've seen as we've said but like if they can just dial in that

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connection when the pass isn't there I think they they'll be a lot better. So now the match that

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everybody was looking forward to this week and while it wasn't a five set barn burner I still

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think it was a pretty good match overall. What were your initial thoughts? I would agree that the sets

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were good until about 20. It was very back and forth, super tight until we hit 20 points and then

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without fail around that mark Nebraska would score two or three in a row and and that was that.

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What did you see those runs after 20? Where did they come from? In at least two of the three sets

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they happened in the exact same rotation with Olivia Mouch serving. They got stuck with Lola

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Schumacher the freshman libero for Wisconsin in position one and Mouch was serving her line to

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line and there were bad passes, miscommunication, any number of things but it was that same rotation

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every time. One of the things that I noticed in the match was I thought that setter freshman setter

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Furbringer was struggling to connect with her middle hitters. They only had 13 sets in the middle

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and I understand that they ran Schmereck a few balls out of the middle but even still she wasn't

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effective and I thought that really cost them. It was really tough to run the middle because

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Wisconsin's passing was so bad. Fair. Like it was almost impossible to run the middle. The only

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thing they could do was set out of system and Sarah Franklin is the only player on Wisconsin

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who can effectively hit out of system and that became painfully obvious this match. Well,

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you had Schmereck hit minus 0.74 and watching her she needs to add a few more angles to her game.

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She hits the same. Straight. She hits straight often and while her height and the pace she can

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put on the ball gets her out of a lot of situations against Nebraska who's probably one of the best,

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if not the best defensive team in the country. It just wasn't good enough. No, it's very clear

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where Anna Schmereck is hitting the ball. If she gets her approach outside a little bit she's

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hitting deep angle and if her approach is inside the court she's hitting straight down the line.

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If she's coming into the middle she hits back to one. Like she does what she does and she's been

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able to get away with it because she's so tall but like you said when you've got a competent

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blocking and defensive team it's not going to cut it. You need to be more versatile. One of my

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favorite players on Nebraska and we talked about her before, Andy Jackson has hit 4.56 this season

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and whether it was the size of the Wisconsin block or the game plan she hit 1.18 this match.

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They still set her a whole bunch which I think they needed to but she was not effective. Well,

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nobody from Nebraska was effective except for Merritt Beeson. Not necessarily effective,

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efficient. But Nebraska is nothing if not balanced. I feel like they run one of the most balanced

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offenses in the country. I really think that this match was a blocking match. I agree with that. Both

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sides knew what the assignment was. I think both teams came in with a very clear plan. It was

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obvious that Nebraska wanted to stop Franklin for obvious reasons. She carries the load for

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Wisconsin offensively and Wisconsin wanted to make it as difficult as possible for Andy Jackson to

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get the ball. Because when Andy Jackson's an option there's just too much going on to be able

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to block and play defense effectively. So we saw Wisconsin serving to zone one a lot regardless of

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who was passing there to try to get Bergen Reilly kind of spinning and losing sight of her middle.

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And we saw Nebraska come at Wisconsin so hard on the serve particularly at Franklin or in the

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seam between Franklin and Orzull. I thought that the libero for Wisconsin also didn't pass

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particularly well and if Wisconsin was going to win this match she needed to be able to take court

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and keep them in system and that did not happen. I think it's just the passing issues that Wisconsin

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had just really highlighted how much they rely on Franklin because they don't have anybody else that

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can really score out of system as we mentioned. Smrec does what she does. She's not a great out

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of system hitter. You can't run your middle with the passes that were being delivered that match.

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And Orzull she was solid. She was steady for Wisconsin but it's a tough matchup her hitting

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out of system for an entire match. Yeah Orzull's the type of player who's going to be steady for

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you but she's probably not going to win you the match. Fair yeah. I do have to say I thought C.C.

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Crawford for Wisconsin blocked very well. There were runs of points there where she ran the show.

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You can tell that she's very smart, very intuitive. Her deductive reasoning is on point.

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You could just see her really taking care of business for Wisconsin from a blocking perspective.

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I thought she did amazing but it was just like a battle of the game plans and while nobody hit

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particularly well for Nebraska other than Beeson I thought that they backed up their solid blocking

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with good defense and their serving pressure didn't relent. Wisconsin they neutralized their

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hitters well. They got a ton of blocks. They kept everybody's hitting percentages down but they

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really loop hold themselves by not being able to get anybody going offensively. Well it's interesting

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you talk about the defense because Nebraska had 43 digs on the match and Wisconsin had 42 digs

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on the match but I think the difference and this is where sometimes stats can be deceiving is

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Nebraska controlled their defensive touches better than Wisconsin. They generally had two options for

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hitters instead of one option in transition and they did a better job of being able to put their

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hitters in positions to be successful I thought than Wisconsin and so while the numbers are close

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to equal I thought they had the advantage in that regard. And one criticism that I have had of

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Charlie Furbringer this season is her out of system setting. She's obviously young she's coming

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into her own she is a good setter but I think when she is forced to run around it's a little

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inconsistent and Sarah Franklin up until this point has done a really good job of just finding

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ways to score anyway. I think in this match Franklin looked out of rhythm her approach was a little bit

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slower her arm was a little slow it was almost like she was trying to see what was going to happen

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and she was thinking about her swing instead of just going for it. It wasn't the same Franklin

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that we saw and I don't know if that is just like respect for Nebraska or or what was going on there

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but I have said throughout the season that Furbringer struggles to set out of system consistently.

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And again I think that will come maybe with a little more strength I thought her all-around game

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was very good I thought she served well I thought she played defense really well but yeah I agree

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with your assessment that she struggled in those situations and Wisconsin both their passing and

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their defense were not always in control. Again I don't think the 3-0 score is really indicative

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of the match as a whole it was very back and forth like I said both teams had a very distinct

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and clear game plan and I think the players executed it well Beeson stepped up for Nebraska

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if she hadn't had those hitting numbers it might have been a different story it might have gone

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like four sets or even further and honestly Wisconsin needs somebody else who can be in our

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meta system. And I think that this is where Nebraska has the edge this season is that all of

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their outside hitters have the potential to have good matches it doesn't always happen but you've

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seen matches where they've individually gone off and the percentage chance that you know one one

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and a half two of them will have a good match is just higher than always relying on Franklin because

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Orzull like you said Orzull is not a great out of system hitter or not consistently going to score

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you those points and Schmreck when the defense is solid and has a good game plan she's not that

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player for you either. It'll be interesting to see how Wisconsin kind of regroups they are going to

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have a rematch against Nebraska later this month. Give me a prediction for that match.

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I think Nebraska is still going to win but I think maybe in four. That's what I was going to pick.

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I was going to say Nebraska in four. Yeah I do like seeing Beeson coming into the back row now

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and I do have to give a shout out to Lini Choboy I think she does a really good job for Nebraska

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whenever she comes in she gets at least a dig she brings energy she brings fire to the court for

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them I'm hoping the next time they play is a little better for a from a fan perspective the

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volleyball was good the game plans were solid I'm just a little more excitement you know.

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A little closer at the end. Yeah. Give me a couple two point sets. Oh yeah.

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All right it's time for my favorite part of the show. Adam makes up a game. I make up a game and

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Sarah has no idea what's going to happen and we see what she says so I'm going to go with

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what she says so this one is called Pavin's percentages. Oh I love an alliteration. I know

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you do. I am going to make a statement and you are going to give me a percentage that you think

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it will happen or come true. Okay. Okay. I will also give a percentage but after you. Okay. I like

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to play too. Okay. First statement a final four team will be playing a true 6 2. Oh.

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Oh dang. And let me clarify by true 6 2 I mean they're doing it pretty much that rotation

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every time. We're not just doing like a blocking sub double sub situation it's like every time.

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Yeah. Okay. I have not been loving teams 6 2 situation this year. A final four team will

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be running a 6 2. Louisville is not running a true 6 2 right. They're doing that double sub like

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once a set. Yeah I would say Louisville is not running a 6 2. Okay. I'm going to say less than

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10 percent. That's not good enough. I need a number. I think there is a 7 percent chance that

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a team running a 6 2 will be in the final four. I like that. I'm going to go with 16 percent.

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Oh dang. How can we measure this? We'll just see what happens. It's like every team in the final

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four is running a 6 2. You were absolutely incorrect. Okay. Do you have any anything to add

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or that's your that's your 7 percent. Just all the 6 2's that I've seen being run this season have

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been very disjointed. The hitters seem to have a really tough time getting in rhythm. The setters

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seem to have a tough time being in rhythm. It just has not looked good to me. I think there is

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something to be said about like hitters knowing what to expect. I don't like it. Okay. Simple as

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that. I don't like it. Sarah Franklin repeats as player of the year and here is a noteworthy

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stat that all of her numbers this year are better than last year. I know for a fact that that doesn't

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matter. I honestly don't think that Wisconsin will make the final four this year. It is very

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challenging. Like it's challenging to be named player of the year if you're not at the final four.

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Given the fact of who I'm thinking will be in the final four. Do you want me to hear what I'm

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thinking? Yeah. Okay. So I'm thinking if Pitt makes the final four, Babcock will be player of the year.

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If Penn State makes the final four, Mirzik has a good shot at being player of the year. I don't

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think anybody from Nebraska, well Andy Jackson would be the only pick for me for Nebraska.

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She's the real, they run, they're too balanced for one player to really stand out. And then Louisville,

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I don't think so. I think if Wisconsin makes it, she'll have a chance, but I don't think they're

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going to make it. So I'm going to say there is a 20% chance. That's really low, isn't it?

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It's actually playing the field. I think that's a high percentage. Oh, okay. I was going to say

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8%. I also don't think they're going to be in the final four. I think it's really hard

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to repeat as player of the year. And I, they're just not as smooth as they were last year.

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There's just like two, like for player of the year, there's so many variables that are out of

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your control. And, and you know, percentage wise with there being four digits worth of people who

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are on that watch list, I mean, her chance of winning is actually a 0.01% given all the people

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that are on the watch list. Nebraska goes undefeated for the rest of the season until the

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tournament. Now matches of note for them are Minnesota, Wisconsin, and Penn State. Honestly,

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I think they're going to win all of those matches. So I'm going to make it pretty high. I'm going to

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say there's a 70% chance that they will go undefeated until the tournament. Those are high odds. I was

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going to go with 51%. Oh man. Just over half. I guess I'm just confident in them. Oh, that's fair.

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So we saw Texas move to a 5-1 in their last match. What are the odds that they play a 5-1 for the

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rest of the year? I'm going to say 35%. Okay, I was going to say 49% only because I don't think

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they have any idea what to do in Texas right now. Because they have no idea what to do, I feel like

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they're going to go with something that the players are at least familiar with for the last little

355
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chunk of time. The players have played a 5-1 with Ella Swindle. They've only played one match with

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a 5-1 with Avery Carlson. I'm not sure if Swindle or Carlson started the season in the 5-1. That I

357
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didn't check. But man, I bet they are just reeling right now. They're in panic mode for sure.

358
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They're in panic mode for sure. Okay, now the last one. We kind of touched on this.

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And I wasn't sure where this conversation was going to go. But Wisconsin makes the final four

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was the last question. I think there's probably a 25% chance that they make the final four. I am not

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confident. This is not the Wisconsin team that we've seen in recent years. I was going to say

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33%. I think Franklin is capable of having two good matches to get them to the final four if her team

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can put her in a position to be successful. And it depends on their matchup. Correct. Because Texas

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is going to fall hard from that NCAA top 16 they came up with. But if we're using that as the

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reference point they would be playing Nebraska to get into the final four. Yeah, 33%. That NCAA top

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16 thing is not going to stand now. I think so many wacky things have happened that the NCAA is

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like, well that was fun. And you're going to get a new one next week. Yeah. Well that's the game

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Pavin's percentages. So I think we've played a few here now. So we'll have to see what we liked. If

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you guys have an idea or you want us to revisit one of these please let us know. Sarah will put a

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poll up. Oh, okay. Let's do it. It is time for our weekly hot takes. We're going to be a little more

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specific this week so get ready. My hot take is that Gulje Guchtiken, the DS for Wisconsin,

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should be the starting libero for the team over Lola Schumacher. She has only been playing DS

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this year. Honestly, I think with Guchtiken you get more leadership qualities. You need that position,

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needs to be confident, needs to be assertive, needs to basically run the back row. And you are

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not seeing that from Schumacher at all. You're seeing miscommunication. You're seeing her unsure

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of herself. Honestly, her passing is not good enough in my opinion for a team of Wisconsin's

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caliber. And we see Guchtiken digging in five when she's coming in, moving Schumacher to six or

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sometimes to zone one. If that doesn't say it, that just proves that Sheffield has confidence in her

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to be able to make those digs against certain players. Like I'm confused why Schumacher's the

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libero. And so that's my hot take for the week. Do you have an opinion? No, I mean I haven't watched

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them enough I would say to have a sample size but definitely in the Nebraska game I was kind of

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scratching my head and wondering why is this girl not playing more. I thought she did a great job.

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The only thing that popped into my head was I think she's a senior and she's a junior. She's a

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junior. Well and the thing is she's coming in as DS so she's playing half the amount of time as

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Schumacher. She had more digs in her and you're playing half the time. That's my hot take of the

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week. I'd be curious to know what the rationale behind that was. My hot take of the week is more

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of a surprise and... A surprise for yourself or a surprise for the listeners? Just overall surprised

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at how poor Texas has been and I know we've talked about them but my hot take is going to be...

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I don't think they get it back on the rails. Texas had eight days in between the A&M match

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and the Missouri match and we saw the same thing. No changes. And then they randomly go to a 5-1

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the next day with no practice. It's a band-aid solution. I don't think they know what the problem

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is and I'm not sure they're going to be able to fix it mid-season. They play too many good teams.

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It's a short window and now you don't know whether you're playing a 5-1 or a 6-2. I think they're in

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trouble. Well let us know what you think about these hot takes. We made them a little more

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specific this week instead of general. Like it, leave it. Either way we feel strongly about these

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ones. Give us your hot take. Looking forward we got a few matches coming up that we think will be

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great and you should keep an eye out for this week. On Wednesday Arizona State is hosting Kansas to

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see who will sit on top of the Big 12. On Thursday Nebraska travels to Oregon. We'll watch the scores

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on that one. I'm thinking Nebraska is going to roll there. So do I but like you love a ranked

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matchup. Fair. On Friday BYU and Utah have their in-state rematch after BYU took down Utah in five

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in Provo a couple weeks ago. I am feeling Utah for that match but we'll see where it goes. I have no

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idea. I think BYU gains extra superpowers at home so it'll be it'll be curious to see how they play

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at Utah but I think the BYU faithful will be traveling there for sure. So they usually travel

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pretty well. Yeah. On Saturday we've got Penn State and Wisconsin, Oregon and Minnesota and

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Stanford taking on Georgia Tech. It's going to be a great week. Hopefully not as messy as this week.

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The upsets were out of control. Well I feel like at the end of last week we said the upcoming week

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we said the upcoming week will not have that much going on. So the fact that we're expecting big

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matches we'll we'll see what happens. Yeah I thought this week was going to be so straightforward

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and it was anything but. So it's just like opposite day here. We'll see what happens.

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That concludes this week's episode of Volley Talk. There's always something shaking in the volleyball

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world and we hope you enjoyed this little fix. Be sure to follow the show so you don't miss any

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updates and we'd be so grateful if you'd leave us a five-star review. You can also find us on

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Instagram at VolleyTalk underscore podcast. If you have a topic that you want us to discuss be sure

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to let us know by reaching out to us on Instagram or at info at sarahpavin.com. Thanks so much for

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joining us and we'll be back next week. See you everybody.