319: Week 12 Matchups

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Speaker 1: This is the Late Podcast with your host JJ zacher Retha, j J Zacherresa, what's up everyone. It's JJ Zacharesen, the editor in chief at FanDuel and at Number five dot com. And this is episode three hundred and nineteen of the Late Round podcast, one of the many shows that are part of the FanDuel podcast network. Thanks for tuning in. Last week was a weird one. It seemed like I had some really good hits but also some really awful misses at every single position. I usually do pretty well at quarterback, but Kyle Allen busted and Sam Darnold was better than expected. I did get Jared Goff and Baker Mayfield right, but it was still weird. Brian Hill didn't pan out, but Austin Eckler did, and I got Todd Gurley wrong. The Rams offensive line actually looked a lot better against the Bears, and then at wide receiver, I like Deebo Samuel and Randall Cobb. That looked good, but I said that DJ Shark was a little bit overvalued. I think the process for Chark wasn't wrong given some of the ambiguity in that Jags offense, but clearly he wasn't overvalued, So overall a pretty average week all things considered. I'm talking about flex plays on this show for the most part, so they are gonna be misses. It was just kind of a strange week overall. It was either really really good or really really bad. Now, before looking at players this week who I'm higher in lower on versus the consensus, feel free to hit pause on this podcast, Go to Fandle dot com and enter the Thursday night special. Build a lineup with Texans and Colts, the teams who are playing on Thursday night, and enter that lineup for just nine dollars. You've got a shot then at one hundred and fifty thousand dollars first place prize, and there are seven hundred and fifty thousand dollars in total prizes for that contest. So head to fandel dot com and enter right now. Eligibility restrictions apply. The biggest questions people probably have this week at quarterback or with Dak Prescott and Aaron Rodgers. So I guess I'll do things a little bit differently on today's show and just kick things off with them because I'm slightly lower than the consensus on both of those players. Fantasy pros right now lists Dak as the QB seven and Aaron Rodgers as the QB six. I think they're more low end QB one types. Let's start with Dak. Dallas is in New England as six and a half point underdogs, where the game has a forty six and a half point over under. Now, according to odds Fire, seventy two percent of the money is on the over, so at least that's a good thing. But Dallas's implied team total at the time of this recording is still under twenty points. That's not what you look for. New England's faced an easy schedule for a lot of the season, but even when you adjust for that, quarterbacks have scored seven point two points below their season long points per game average when they faced the Patriots, so we should expect Dak to have a rough day. I think is a fringe QB one this week as a result. In a similar argument can be made for Aaron Rodgers. The difference is that Dak has been the better fantasy quarterback this year even when you adjust for strength of opponent. If you look at those quarterback adjusted numbers, Rogers is basically the QB eight this year. He's not bad by any means, but it does tell us that he's not a must start in these tough matchups, and that's what he's got this week Quarterbacks against San Francisco, who Rogers is facing. They've scored six point eight fewer points than their season long average this year when they've gone up against the forty nine Ers. The vast majority of the bets right now are on the over, but the Packers still don't have an overly impressive imply team total. It makes sense to view Aaron Rodgers more as a low end QB one. I think that's where a lot of quarterbacks kind of sit this week. That includes Baker Mayfield. But I actually think that Baker can be started ahead of dak Ann Rogers. He's facing Miami, giving the Browns one of the highest implied team totals on this week's slate, and the Dolphins have been trash against the pass. They ring fifth worst in yards per attempt allowed, and that's actually third worst when you adjust that for strength of opponent, and Miami has the worst sack rate and the third worst pressure rate in the entire league. So Baker should be able to sit back in the pocket during this entire game. That's big news. Now. Mayfield's obviously not been very good, but when you look at how his opponents have allowed fantasy points, it paints a better picture. His opponents this year have allowed just under fourteen standard fantasy points per game to opposing quarterbacks. Baker has averaged zero point four points below that, so he's been below average, but barely below average, and that's with him being a pretty big positive regression candidate. Based on his yardage total and using yards to touchdowns conversion data over the last five years, he should have three point nine more touchdowns than he currently has. Basically, this, on paper, is the Baker Mayfield game I'd be confident playing him. Carson Wentz was someone who seemed pretty undervalued on Fantasy pros this week as well. The game against Seattle should at least be a little higher scoring than average this week, or at least that's how it projects. And Seattle hasn't been all that great defensively in terms of fantasy points allowed. They're giving up an additional two point four points per game to opposing quarterbacks versus those quarterback season long averages, and they really haven't been able to get to quarterbacks, ranking thirty first in pressure rate this year. Wentz has some questionable pass catchers, but he's also not facing the new England defense this week. He should be ranked higher than QB sixteen. And then there's Sam Darnold, who I talked about on this week's fifteen Transaction show. Donald now has back to back really strong performances, and he gets an Oakland team this week that's one of the friendliest against fantasy quarterbacks, and it's also one that hasn't been able to generate a lot of pressure on quarterbacks their fifth worst and pressure rate. Now, I'm always a fan when a quarterback can stay upright, So I think Donald's probably the best traditional streamer this week, though I'd be playing someone like Baker Mayfield over him if he's on your waiver wire. Some of you are going to listen to the show on Friday after the Colts Texans game has concluded, but I'm intrigued by Naim Hines in his matchup in that game. Houston's a favorite in that game against the Colts, which means if they get out to a lead, the Colts are likely to use their pass catching running back more, which is Naim Hines. As I talked about on my fifteen Transaction show, when we saw Hines without Marlon Mack last year, he saw forty three percent of the team's running back rushes. Now, I doubt that we get to that high of a number in this matchup, but even his twenty three percent mark this past week when Mack was sidelined was basically two and a half times his season long average, and Houston's actually allowed the most running back receptions in the NFL this year. That just plays into Hines being an intriguing PPR flex option. If you're a little desperate, gamescript will need to go his way, but I could see Hines coming through with a decent performance. Now, speaking of game script, it's likely that both Scarborough is going to be a pretty game script dependent running back now that he seemed to grab hold of the early down roll for Detroit. He didn't see a single target last week, and we shouldn't expect him to be that involved in the passing game with Ty Johnson and j D. McKissick there. We should probably expect him to continue to see the early down work though, and Detroit could also be in a positive game script this week because Washington is a very bad football team. The Lions are road favorites, and Washington's allowed three point four fantasy points per game above expectation to opposing team running backs. It's one of the higher marks in the league. So I kind of like Scarrow as a flex play, and then a little bit deeper of a play this week is Latavius Murray. Murray's been pretty ineffective over New Orleans last two games because Alvin Kamara has been back. He's carried the ball fifteen total times while seeing five targets. Those aren't horrible numbers for a backup, but they're not great. The thing is, though, in Week ten, New Orleans ran seventy one plays while trailing, so it made sense for Alvin Kamara to be on the field. He's the superior pass catching back. Murray didn't even play twenty five percent of the team snaps. In Week eleven, in a much friendlier game script, Murray was on the field for forty one of New Orleans snaps and he saw ten of the fifteen carries that I just talked about. This week, there should be a positive game script for New Orleans. They're eight and a half point home favorites against Carolina, unlike Tampa Bay last week. Though Carolina hasn't been good at stopping the run this year, Tampa Bay's been the best team in adjusted points allowed to running backs or as Carolina is one of the worst. So maybe Latavius Murray finds more success on the ground and he gives you a flexworthy start. Now, on the flip side of things, there aren't many running backs who are seeing volume who you should be sitting this week. That's how it is every week. That's why I'm talking about deeper plays and flex plays. But Royce Freeman was someone who I saw ranked as a pretty solid RB three, and I'd be nervous about playing him, even though the matchup is there. Without Joe Flacco, the Broncos haven't been targeting their running backs that much out of the backfield, and honestly, that was really the allure with Royce Freeman. For a while when Joe Flacco was under center, Freeman had a target shair of thirteen percent. Over his last two games, it's been four percent. Like I said, Buffalo is not a bad matchup, but the floor is no longer there for Royce Freeman. That makes him a risky play. Brian Hill's risky as well against Tampa Bay's peripheral numbers were actually fine last week. He saw sixty eight percent of the team's rushes, he had almost a ten percent target chair, and he played sixty percent of the team snaps. But Tampa Bay's rush defense can't be understated. It's very good. They've allowed the thirty first fewest fantasy points of opposing running backs this year, and like I said earlier, their adjusted numbers are out of control. Team running backs are averaging nine point one fewer points per game against Tampa Bay than they are throughout the rest of the season. Since Brian Hill wasn't locked in as the team's goal line back last week, and since his target share wasn't that impressive, I'm definitely worried about him in this matchup. At wide receiver this week, I'm in a dk metcalf. He's averaged a twenty five percent target share over his last four games, and Philadelphia has been bad against opposing wide receivers this year, specifically opposing outside receivers. They've given up the fourth most points to wide outs this season, but against all pass catchers in the slot, they've been arguably the best in the league. Statistically, according to data compiled from Pro Football Focus, just twenty one percent of targets are going to slot receivers against Philly, and they've allowed just two slot touchdowns to go along with the league low four hundred and forty eight yards. It's because you can attack the perimeter, and that's what I expect Seattle to do in this matchup. Some of you might be questioning whether or not to play Alan Robbinson this week, because well, the Bear's quarterback situation is very not pleasant. Robinson saw a lot at Jalen Ramsey last week, though, and he ended up with his lowest target share of the season by far, at just thirteen percent. Things should turn around for him this week against the Giants. They've played below expectation in terms of fantasy points allowed, and they're allowing one point seven more yards per attempt than they should when you adjust for who they've faced. It's a bad secondary and Robinson should bounce back. Nelson Agalore is getting a lot of heat on social media, and I think the narrative around him has sort of driven his rankings down this week. Realistically, he's not in a bad spot as long as Alshon Jeffrey doesn't play, he still saw twenty four percent of the Eagles targets last week, and like I said with Carson Wentz, this matchup isn't bad at all. Seattle's been a below average team against wideouts this year, so if al Sean's out, Agalore is in play. And even though t Y Hilton is expected to come back this week, Zach Pascal isn't a bad deeper play either. He'll be the number two wide out for the Colts, and Houston's been really bad against the pass this season. They've got the lowest pressure rate in football, which is kind of crazy, and they're surrendering five point one points above expectation to team wide receivers this year per game, meaning we should expect about a five point boost from the Colts normal wide receiver output that'll benefit passcal Golden Tate's in kind of a rough spot against Chicago. The Bears have been a near top five team at preventing fantasy points from a justin for strength of opponent to wide receivers, and they've been above average against the slot as well. Twenty eight percent of the targets against Chicago have gone to that area of the field. That's a below average mark in the league. So I'm not looking at Golden Tate as anything more than a flex play this week, even in PPR formats. And then there's Curtis Samuel. He's become a completely touchdown dependent asset in Fantasy football, ranking higher than wide receiver thirty four times, which were his four games with a touchdown. And New Orleans has been really good against wide receivers this year. Even with a banged up marsha on Latimar, team wide receivers average five point six fewer points per game when they face the Saints. New Orleans has been beat more in the slot than on the perimeter this year. That's not where Curtis Samuel lines up very often. He's played just twenty nine percent of his snaps from the slot this season. That's been jerryus Wright's spot. I've got a couple waiver wire tight ends that you can start this week, starting with Ryan Griffin. I talked about him on the fifteen Transactions podcast earlier in the week, but he's seen fourteen percent or more of the Jets targets in three of his last four games. And Oakland's a plus matchup for tight ends, so he's in play coming off a big week, as is Jacob Hollister. My buddy Rich Reebarer at lord Reeves on Twitter. He tweeted out yesterday that Seattle's tight ends have produced six tight end one games already this season. Russell Wilson's been targeting them above the league average too. Seattle tight ends have a twenty one percent target share on the year, so a player getting volume in a Russell Wilson led offense is definitely in play. The only problem is that there's been some injury luck in Hollister's favor, with Luke Wilson and Ed Dixon being out. But Hollister played himself into a bigger role, I think, and that's what you've got to hope for. He is riskier than advertised, though. Detroit was the streaming defense that I talked about on the fifteen Transaction show this week, and they're most definitely in play against Dwayne Haskins. But I'm gonna give you two other defenses that you could target this week off the wire. One of them is Tennessee. The Titans aren't bad as a standalone defense, but they get what we should probably consider a plus matchup against Jacksonville. Nick Foles was sacked twice and he threw a pick last week in his comeback game, and the Titans are at home, their favorites, and there's a low over under in this game, so I think they're a safe bet. Atlanta's not a safe bet, but they do have an interesting ceiling, as we've seen the last couple of weeks. On the ten Trends show yesterday, I talked about how much more pressure the Falcons are getting now that they switched up play calling duties, and while that might not continue, it's at least something that you can buy into. They're playing in a game with a high over under. But points allowed matters a lot less in fantasy football than sacks and turnovers, and so far this year, when adjusted for strength of opponent, the Bucks have allowed two and a half more fantasy points per game to opposing defenses versus those defenses season long averages. Quite simply, it's a plus matchup against a turnover friendly quarterback. That's gonna do it for today's show, though, thanks to all of you for listening. If you get subscribe to the Late Round podcast, make sure you are by searching for it pretty much anywhere podcasts can be found, and don't forget to follow me on Twitter at late round QB. Thanks everyone. We've got one more show this week, the Mailbag Show, and that'll drop tomorrow