More or Less

Covid-19 stats, spreading jam far and wide, cooking with AI, and James Wong on vegetables

We all know that you should never smile at a crocodile, but rumour has it that alligators are great perambulators – at least that’s what a booklet about Florida’s wildlife claimed. Tim Harford speaks to John Hutchinson, Professor of evolutionary bio-mechanics to see whether he could outrun one of these reportedly rapid retiles. Also – our editor thinks he could outrun a hippo, is he right? (…probably not).

Costing counter-terrorism, interrogating tomatoes, the UK's reading age, politics and GDP

The WHO have declared a ‘Global Health Emergency’ as health officials are urgently trying to contain the spread of a new coronavirus in China and beyond; but not all the information you read is correct. We fact-check a particularly hyperbolic claim about its spread that’s been doing the rounds on social media.

Fact checking claims about coronavirus and whether more guns equal fewer homicides.

Anxiety around sleep is widespread. Many of us feel we don’t get enough. An army of experts has sprung up to help, and this week we test some of the claims from one of the most prominent among them: Professor Matthew Walker. He plays ball and answers some of the criticisms of his bestselling book Why We Sleep.

The list of ways campaigners say we need to change our behaviour in response to climate change seems to grow every week. Now, streaming video is in the frame. We test the claim that watching 30 minutes of Netflix has the same carbon footprint as driving four miles. We hear scepticism about a report that sepsis is responsible for one in five deaths worldwide. Author Bill Bryson stops by with a question about guns – and gets quizzed about a number in his new book. And, how much sleep do we really need? Find out if we need more or less.

The fugitive former Nissan boss, Carlos Ghosn, has raised questions about justice in Japan. The government in Tokyo has defended its system, where 99% of prosecutions lead to conviction. Prof Colin Jones, from Doshisha Law School in Kyoto, explains what's behind this seemingly shocking statistic. And a listener asks if it’s true Canada’s is roughly the same. Toronto lawyer Kim Schofield sets them straight.

Is it possible to calculate the cost of Brexit? Gemma Tetlow from the Institute for Government helps us weigh the arguments. How much does luck play into Liverpool FC's amazing season? And, crucially, how fast is an alligator?

Have a billion animals died in Australia’s fires? And which ones are likely to survive?

Tim Harford on animal deaths in Australia's fires, how many Labour voters went Conservative and are UK carbon emissions really down 40%. Plus: have we really entered a new decade?

How many women in China give birth in hospitals, and whether it was true that 50% of births there are delivered by caesarean section. Oh, and we also mention guts and bacteria…

Sharks kill 12 humans a year but humans kill 11,417 sharks an hour. That’s the statistic used in a Facebook meme that’s doing the rounds. Is it true?

We talk about the age of some of the frontrunners in the Democrat nomination race and President Donald Trump and the health risks they face.

Also, More or Less listeners were surprised by a claim they read on the BBC website recently: “Pets are estimated to be consuming up to 20 percent of all meat globally.” So we – of course – investigated and will explain all.

We explore the maths secrets of The Simpsons on their 30th anniversary.

As bushfires rage in Australia, the plight of the koala made front-page news around the world. There were warnings that fires wiped out 80% of the marsupial's habitat and that koalas are facing extinction.

We check the claims with the help of National Geographic's Natasha Daly and Dr Christine Hosking of the University of Queensland.

(A Koala receives treatment at the Koala Hospital in Port Macquarie after its rescue from a bushfire. Credit: Safeed Khan/Getty Images)

Labour's spending plans, Conservatives claims on homelessness, the SNP's education record

The UK General Election is fast approaching, top of the agenda are the political parties green ambitions and one particular initiative is garnering a lot of attention, tree planting. The Labour Party has the most ambitious target – a whopping 2 billion trees planted by 2040. How much land would this take, how does it stack up against other party pledges and what difference will it make?

Presenter: Tim Harford Producer: Lizzy McNeill

50,000 nurses? 40 new hospitals? Big corporate tax rises? Childcare promises? Election pledges might sound good, but do they stand up to scrutiny? In the run up to the General Election on 12th December, Tim Harford takes his scalpel of truth to the inflamed appendix of misinformation.

Presenter: Tim Harford Producer: Neal Razzell

Have these saucy fruits become less healthy over time?

A listener wrote in asking which is the busiest shipping lane in the world. Ruth Alexander tries to find out with sea traffic analyst and former captain, Amrit Singh and Jean Tournadre, a researcher that uses satellite date to ships.

Producer: Darin Graham Editor: Richard Vadon

Image: Freighter ships in Thessaloniki, Greece Credit: Getty Images

Evo Morales, Bolivia’s longest-serving leader and first indigenous president, stepped down last week amid weeks of protests sparked by a dispute over a recent presidential election in the country. His opponents say the election was rigged but the embattled former president said it was a cunning coup. We take a closer look at the election results and ask if statistics can tell whether it was fair or fraudulent.

Dr Calla Hummel of the University of Miami and Professor Romulo Chumacero of the University of Chile join Ruth Alexander to discuss.

Two statistics about reducing your risk of an early death made headlines around the world recently. The first seems to be a great reason to add a four-legged friend to your life. It suggests that owning a dog is tied to lowering your chance of dying early by nearly a quarter.

The second statistic claims that even a minimal amount of running is linked to reducing your risk of premature death by up to 30%. Ruth Alexander finds out what’s behind these numbers and we hear from epidemiologist, Gideon Meyerowitz-Katz.

Producer: Darin Graham

In the United States, some police jurisdictions didn’t send off DNA evidence from people who were raped for testing in a crime lab and for uploading into a national criminal database. Instead, the sets of evidence, known as rape kits, were sat on shelves and in warehouses.

It’s estimated that hundreds of thousands need processing. In this edition, Ruth Alexander explores how some jurisdictions are testing the kits now and using the data to catch criminals.

Producer: Darin Graham Presenter: Ruth Alexander

(Untested sexual assault kits on warehouse shelves. Image: courtesy Joyful Heart Foundation)

Social worker and economist Edith Abbott and her contribution to crime statistics.

Discussing Esther Duflo, Abhijit Banerjee and Michael Kremer’s economics Nobel Prize.

We explore the numbers behind the new minimum wage announcements, whether drinking is going up or down in Scotland, the truth about squeezing people onto the Isle of Wight and how long one identical twin lives after the other twin dies. You’ll want to hear our special extra episode.

Are the shocking statistics true? and how do you count people who don't wish to be found?

Dissecting the government’s hospitals announcement and President Trump’s Ukraine claims.

Were a third of those that fought for Britain in WW1 black or Asian?

Has Austerity caused 120 thousand deaths in the UK and does God hate men?

Using statistics to compare world records in athletics and swimming.

Health risks for Presidential hopefuls, falling inflation, shark deaths and salary claims

Are eight people a day murdered in Cape Town and is that number unusually high?

Are black women five times more likely to die in childbirth? Plus making pop music.

Has it increased significantly since President Bolsonaro took office in January?

Challenging the idea of six billion deaths due to climate change; plus what pets eat.

Are they really 85 percent worse than last year?

Are forest fires in Brazil the worst in recent times? What is the state pension worth?

Were millions of trees planted in just one day in Ethiopia?

Was your A Level grade correct? Plus were 350m trees planted in one day in Ethiopia?

Re-inserting a caveat and discussing a really cool numbers trick.

Do immigrants commit more crime than native-born Americans in the United States?

With misinformation so easy to spread, how can it be stopped or challenged?

Taking a statistical look at what expectant mothers should avoid.

How medical testing on just men causes problems.

We look at politicians’ claims that sanctions are to blame for Zimbabwe’s difficulties.

On this week’s More or Less, Ruth Alexander looks at the numbers involved with the two world cups that are going on at the moment.

Are more men than women watching the Women’s World Cup and how accurate is the Cricket World Cup rule of thumb that suggests if you double the score after 30 overs you get a good estimate of the final innings total?

Producer: Richard Vadon

Image: Cricket World Cup Trophy 2019 Credit: Getty Images/ Gareth Copley-IDI

We questioned the death count of the Chernobyl nuclear disaster in last week’s More or Less podcast. In the end, Professor Jim Smith of Portsmouth University came up with an estimate of 15,000 deaths.

But we wondered how deadly nuclear power is overall when compared to other energy sources? Dr Hannah Ritchie of the University of Oxford joins Charlotte McDonald to explore.

Image:Chernobyl nuclear plant, October 1st 1986 Credit: Getty Images

The recent TV miniseries ‘Chernobyl’ has stirred up debate online about the accuracy of its portrayal of the explosion at a nuclear power plant in the former Soviet state of Ukraine. We fact-check the programme and try and explain why it so hard to say how many people will die because of the Chernobyl disaster.

Image: Chernobyl nuclear power plant a few weeks after the disaster. Credit: Getty Images

How one woman used statistics to help cope with cancer.