Brazil is on Top After Men's VNL Week 2, Final 8 Battle is Wide Open

Hi volleyball fans and welcome back to Volley
Talk, the podcast created for volleyball lovers
who want to dig deep into what is going on in
NCAA and international volleyball. I'm your host
Sarah Pavan. I'm an Olympian, beach volleyball
world champion, former Nebraska Cornhusker, and
longtime pro, both indoor and on the beach. And
I'm Adam Schultz, former indoor player, international
volleyball coach, and the show's resident stat
guy. We had week two of the men's VNL competition.
I don't know if I'm crazy, but I felt like Chicago
was completely stacked and Belgrade was not.
There definitely are locations that have tougher
pools from week to week, and we'll see that again
next week too. Yeah, like looking at some of
the matches and stuff, I was like, dang, this
seems a little unbalanced, but maybe... Maybe
I'm crazy here. I don't know. We had a few teams
differentiate themselves. And then again, it's
like a chunk of three at the top, a chunk of
four at the bottom, and then literally open season
for the rest. So things are going to be wild
in week three. And I think with the men's competition,
as we spoke about last week, that's always a
guarantee. The race for making the playoffs is
an absolute hot mess in the best way. You know
we love it. You know we love it. So we're excited
to discuss all things Men's V &L Week 2 with
you. So let's get started. This might be the
shortest weekly highlights in Volley Talk history,
everybody, okay? There is not a lot happening.
I'm pretty sure Love has finished their signings
for season two. We don't have any, you know,
note -taking on coaches' commentary. You know,
things are pretty slow for the most part other
than, you know, we have like... Some continental
competitions for youth and things like that.
No Major League news? Shockingly, no Major League
Volleyball news. I know you were waiting with
a held breath on that. But no. So, shortest weekly
highlights ever. The only thing I have for you
this week is Golden League and Silver League
were happening in Europe. And for women, the
men's... Competition finishes next week. So Ukraine
won the Golden League and Switzerland won the
Silver League. So there's that. And while that
doesn't guarantee you a spot in VNL next year,
winning the Golden League will give Ukraine a
good number of points to help them up the ranking.
So we'll see what ends up happening with the
relegation on the women's side and who's next
in line. It's up in the air. But that's all I
got for you. Done and dusted. Spick and span.
Okay, that's it. Let's get into the week two
VNL recap, shall we? There were a lot of very
good matches. Yes. And as the week comes to an
end, Brazil is at the top with seven wins. By
themselves, solo. And they did not pull any punches
with their roster this week. They came to give
themselves a chance to win, and they did. They
played Canada, China. Poland and Italy, and I
believe they went 4 -0. They went 4 -0. So they
are solo at the top. Poland is in second. Italy's
in third. Both teams have six wins. So Brazil,
Poland, and Italy. And again, the gaps we're
talking about here are not large, but they are
the three that are kind of at the top. Japan,
France, Ukraine, Argentina all have five wins.
So this is what we're saying. Things are up in
the air here. And then there's a ton of teams.
Almost all of the other teams have four points
except for... Wins. Four wins, except for the
bottom four, five teams. Canada's got three.
So we've got everybody basically sitting at four
and five wins. We've got Serbia at the bottom
of the ranks. They have one win. Netherlands
have a win. But Netherlands has four points to
Serbia's three. So those two are at the very,
very bottom. China and Turkey both have two wins.
So those teams are kind of wrapping up the bottom
of the ranks. We'll get into all the details
and the messiness and relegation and stuff later.
But I think it's fair to say that this has been
a tough VNL outing for Serbia across the board,
men and women. We are potentially looking at
a double relegation for Serbia. I don't think
that's ever happened in the history of volleyball,
where one country, both their teams get relegated.
When in a million years would anybody have ever
thought that both Serbians, men, and women's
team would be at the bottom? No, the odds were
a million to one. It's wild. It's been a rough
summer. that is where we stand again everything
is up in the air like even brazil at the top
with seven wins they're not safe because there's
literally 11 teams that are like right behind
them but we got our chunk as suspected well maybe
brazil's not suspected because we did get a question
about this that i want to address brazil's at
the top poland italy i think that's fair we expected
them to be up there and then our are four at
the bottom. But I want to address this because
we're talking about Brazil. Somebody wrote in
and they were saying that they would love our
opinion on the rebuilding of the Brazilian men's
team. So they were obviously dominant in the
2000s. They went into a straight rebuild and
were very successful in the 2010s. Obviously,
they won gold in Rio in 2016. But we've seen
Serginio, Wallacey, Bruninho, Leal, Lucan. They
are all gone. And the last three I mentioned,
obviously, right after the Paris Olympics. So
this person said, as a fan, I struggle to come
to terms with the lack of competitiveness of
the team compared to what they used to be and
seeing my idols retire. So I'd like your view
on the current situation and if you believe that
we can actually compete for gold during this
Olympic cycle. I mean, there's a lot there. And
obviously, the players who retired. After Paris,
I mean, they were legends in Brazil for a decade.
I mean, Brazil has been fortunate on both the
men's and women's side to have a very constant,
continuous flow of just top, top -level athletes.
So it is definitely a luxury that they have had.
But based on what I saw this week, like... I'm
not worried. They can hang like they're right
there. And the thing is, you have to give the
new generation a chance to become stars. And
it just so happens your cycles run differently
from other countries. Like USA is in a bit of
a rebuild. Right. And I thought, you know, watching
Cooper Robinson. he's going to be very good.
And then you look at some of the Brazilian players,
Bergman is going to be very good. That core that
they have playing right now in VNL does not look
out of place. I mean, they just went 4 -0. I
mean, Italy showed up. Italy played Brazil with
a solid roster. Yeah. And Brazil beat them. Yeah,
that was one of my... favorite matches this week.
That and the France and Japan game. We'll get
into that in a second. Adam's just getting crazy.
But I don't think you have anything to worry
about if you're a Brazilian fan. They're going
to be competitive with Bernardinho at the helm.
He is great at developing players. Bernardinho
always comes back in a pinch, everybody. He's
like, the program is kind of faltering a little
bit. Time for me to step in and right the ship
here, okay? Yeah, I mean, am I going to sit here
and say they're going to win? No. But I think
it's realistic that they could be in the conversation.
100%. I don't think they're going anywhere. The
league is so good. The number of players they
have coming through their system. You know, if
some of these kids don't pan out this cycle,
there'll be somebody chomping at the bit to take
their place next cycle. There's just too much
talent there. You know, are you going to see
a core of Bruno? Lucas, you're not going to like,
it's hard. That's like a generational, like you're,
it's going to be tough to see that kind of group
again, but, but you never, Ellie's still playing.
Like he'll be back eventually. Yeah. And we might
be looking after LA and going, man, Bergman is
generational. He might serve. It's going to be
so good. He's all like, he's so young. I think
he's going to be so good. I think, you know,
this, person who wrote in was talking about Allen
and Darlan. Played well. And how they're inconsistent.
I personally thought that Allen was quite good.
Yeah, I thought he was very good as well. And
the thing about the consistency. Darlan is a
little bit more of a wild card to me. He's a
little more of a risk taker. But go back and
watch Wallacey play. when he was 21 22 23 like
i was in the league at that time with the brazilian
team i watched him play it was the same thing
like he had good matches he had bad matches you
get more consistent as you get experience it's
not fair to compare these young players to the
stars in their peak. You need to give them a
chance to get there. And I think they can. And
I think that's the beauty of sport too, is that
like as fans, sometimes you get really spoiled
by having certain generations commit to playing
for a long time when they are so good. And this
is just one of those like little lulls, but I
think they're going to come out of it. And like,
I think that they were in the toughest. kind
of location this week and they were outstanding
so just wanted to address that i mean as a brazilian
i can see how you're looking at those people
retiring going oh man we're in trouble as an
outside observer you look at that team and go
man they got a lot of young talent okay we've
got a few interesting storylines this week that
we wanted to touch on first of all what was your
favorite match this week I have a hard time picking
between, and I mentioned this already, the Brazil
-Italy match, which was, hey, here are probably
our better rosters, and we're in a shootout.
It was so entertaining. The intensity was high.
They were hitting the snot out of the ball. It
was, oh man, it was so much fun. I really enjoyed
that match. And I also... Loved the Japan -France
match. And I know I said this last week, but
Klevno right now is just my most favorite player
to watch. I've never seen Adam have such a man
crush. Ever. He plays with a swagger that's fun
to watch. You see him hit the hands of blockers
who are massive, of blockers who are smaller.
There was a play in the Japan match where he
dug a ball with his foot. He ended up on the
ground out of the rally and then came back and
made a solo dive angle block on the Japanese
right side who was playing. unbelievable like
he's just if any of you watch high q it was literally
a high q -esque play and like a hinata approach
block from the bench it was it was wow and then
on defense he's just so nonchalant and always
in the right place he's just he's so much fun
to watch wow adam is clearly passionate about
this man as you can tell i mean he's He's fun
to watch. Those were two very interesting matches
to watch. And I think, not like for different
reasons, but I think there was a very interesting
contrast in these matches. I think, as Adam said,
the Brazil -Italy match, you saw them play the
strongest rosters that they could. And so they
were like, you know what? We saved up for this
match. Here we go. Let's see what you got. The
match had meaning for both teams. It was a bit
of a measuring stick match, I think. Both teams
wanted to win. They came to play. It got a little
chippy. There were some stare downs. It was fun.
There were some swings of points, too. You know,
Italy having set point at one time, being up
24 -21, Brazil coming back. Like, there were
these very meaningful, like, runs of points.
And overall, I would say, like, a very high -level
fun match. But to contrast that, it was like
Japan and France, we all know that they didn't
have their big guns there. So it was like...
Brazil, Italy, starting lineups against each
other. Japan, France, second line against each
other. I mean, obviously, four. Klevno were there
for France, similar to week one. But Broussard
made an appearance when they needed him to. Chinanyezi
was there, didn't play. But, like, Japan was
missing some of their superstars. Japan looked
real bad for a while, and I thought that they
were going to get slapped in four. And then set
five, France could not hit a serve to save their
lives. Well, they couldn't. I mean, they missed
a ton of serves all match. A ton of serves. And
watching the Japanese men play, they need to
be able to run the pipe. When the pipe wasn't
an option for them, France was all over them
defensively. And so, you know, France was obviously
hitting their serve. aggressively because they
were missing so much. But when that pipe disappeared,
I thought they struggled. The right side for
Japan, Miura, I think, I probably butchered that
pronouncement, but I thought he played really,
really well. He was very aggressive and scored
points for them, which they needed. So it was,
and the styles are obviously different between
France and Japan. If you didn't get a chance
to watch those matches, head back and watch them.
Both very entertaining in their own right, albeit
different. You know, like Japan and France can
still level up a bit. Brazil, Italy was great.
So I think another interesting storyline from
this week was injuries. Oh man, you hate to see
that. And they play the slow -mos over and over
again. I cover my eyes. Like every time a player
gets injured, I cover my eyes because seeing
an ankle go or seeing a knee twist or a hyperextension
or... You name it, it makes me sick. So I always
close my eyes and I tell Adam to let me know
what happened. I have rolled my ankles very badly
playing volleyball and watching some of those
things happen just brings me right back to that
moment. I think I limp afterwards for a little
while. Well, Adam just stares at it and I'm just
like, I literally can't. But probably, okay.
Eric showed you went down in match one. And then
came right back. Only made his return for their
fourth match. So I'm assuming he's okay. I mean,
obviously. He played pretty well in that match.
That was like, I'm like, okay, they can't. No.
That's a big loss if they lose him. But like,
I mean, D 'Agostino does a good job for USA also,
but he's not. Shoji. Shoji. So it was good to
see him back and playing, and hopefully it wasn't
like a grunted out that he's okay. I'm willing
to bet that they wouldn't have made him grunted
out. You know what I mean? It's not worth it
with world champs at the end of the season and
stuff. But they're on the cusp of making it and
not making it either. I know. So I was really
worried about it for a few days, and then he
came back to play against Italy. So I'm like,
okay, that's a good sign. But another one of
their players, the middle blocker Holdaway, is
also injured. Yeah. No timeline on him. I think
it was his knee. Or lower body at least, but
I don't know. NHL here. Lower body injury. Take
your pick. Yeah, he didn't come back, so we'll
see if he's on the roster for week three or not.
He did a good job. He wasn't on the roster for
week one, or he didn't play at least. Came off
the bench for the first match this week. Did
a great job, so he was starting. And then, obviously.
Went down. We also saw the same thing happen
with an Iranian player, a Turkish player, and...
Probably the biggest injury for their team. Mone,
Nikolov went down in the third match for Bulgaria.
And they stunk after he was gone. They were having
a great week. They were beating good teams. They
crushed Japan. They were, like, rolling. And
then Mone went down. His brother could not get
it together after that. No, he looked unwell.
Yeah, and the other setter just couldn't connect
with the hitter. He's the heart and soul of that
team, I think. Whether they all see him as a
younger brother or whether they actually, you
know, and obviously he's a very good setter.
But yeah, the team could not pull it back together
after he was injured. Yeah, so they lost their
last two matches, which is unfortunate because
they were... They were doing really well. But
word is he should be back in a couple weeks.
So maybe we'll see him in week three. Maybe they'll
try to push to make the final without him and
then bring him back for the final. I mean, lucky
for him, there's an extra week. Yeah, exactly.
So he's got more time to recover. And they're
on the cusp. I'm not sure they qualify without
him, but we'll see what happens. So yes, injuries
all over the place this week. It was not fun.
I know we probably missed some, but those are
the ones that we like saw. So hopefully everybody's
okay and they'll be back soon. Who were your
biggest climbers and your biggest downfalls this
week? I thought Ukraine had a very good week.
We'll get to this later, but I have them making
the playoffs and I think they're playing incredibly
well right now. So they were probably the biggest
surprise for me. Okay, I had quite the list.
So I will... Ukraine was on my list, but since
he said it, I won't. So I will say Brazil, Cuba,
Argentina. I think Cuba had a great week. I loved
watching Cuba play. The absolute swagger. that
those guys have on the court is it's just so
much fun to watch. I watched them play Netherlands
and the Dutch boys are like, they're tall and
they're a little lanky and they're very proper.
And Cuba was just. swaggering i don't have another
another way to say it they were swaggering around
the court and you could see it getting under
the duchess skin and they were kind of trying
to chirp back or stare them down you just can't
you can't do that you can't try against cuba
they're just big and physical and quite frankly
they're just cooler than you that's just that's
just the way that they operate and they were
so much fun to watch I had a lot of fun watching
them. I was happy to see them have some success.
They went three for four. You know what? Why
don't I just tell you my last team too? Germany.
The reason I put Germany on my climbers list
was because last week in week one, they got one
win, but they lost every single other match in
five. This week, they got three wins, which I
think is huge. Argentina got three wins, pushing
them. Like into a spot to fight for final eight.
And then the reason I put Brazil on my climbers
list. Was because they had three wins. They were
near the top in week one. But they, and I'll
say it again. I've said it twice already today.
They were in the toughest group in my opinion.
And they went 4 -0. And for me, that made an
impression. And watching them play, I was impressed.
So that's why I put them on the biggest climbers
list. I mean, I think all of your justifications
are correct. I didn't realize we could pick half
the league for the climbers. I picked one, but
you know, it is what it is. Okay, if I had to
pick, I would probably say Brazil and Ukraine.
Ukraine, like three wins. First VNL. And they're
showing up. Yep. Okay. Who are your biggest downfalls?
I had two. Slovenia, I don't know what happened
to them this week. They struggled. And I was
expecting a little more out of Canada, to be
honest. Canada went from 6 to 14. That's serious.
Slovenia went from what? They were like 3 or
4 last week, and they are down to like 11 or
something. Yeah, I think they're out of the picture.
Slovenia and Canada, I... They were 100 % on
my list. Yeah, fair enough. I was expecting Canada
to be able to close out on a few more matches.
I thought they had a decent showing in week one.
They were making plays. They were more disciplined
than I thought they were going to be coming into
the week. I figured that having a better first
week, and maybe it was just because they were
at home, that gave them a little extra boost.
They started from a place that I thought they
would be lower than. So they exceeded my expectations
in week one. And I wanted to see them build off
of that, but it didn't change. If anything, I
thought the discipline was less. I don't think
they passed as well. I didn't. They were making
mistakes kind of in groups. And I don't know
if that's, I mean, the thing is they're not inexperienced.
You needed to be able to win those games to be
more competitive. I didn't see them build off
what they accomplished in Quebec. Yeah. And against
the U .S., I was like, this is awful. But that
should have been a winnable match. It should
have been, and then they got blanked. And then
you go and take Poland to five. The inconsistency
was... drastic to me well and you have to you
have to pick your places like and this is i don't
know if pet peeve is the wrong word but you can't
come in against an opponent that you are probably
equal to Like, realistically, those two teams,
you probably look at that and go, okay, that
game could go either way. And you don't show
up in that match. And then against a team you're
not supposed to beat, then you show up and play
really well. Like, it comes back to that. Well,
granted, if they were ever going to beat Poland,
it was now. Because Poland did not have all their
guys there. Yeah, and I get that. But it's still
Poland. Like, on paper, you're not supposed to
win that match. This is the thing I think you
see with Canada, both on the men's and women's
side, is dealing with that expectation of teams
that you should beat, a la maybe Netherlands
and the women's going into the Olympics. And
here, the same thing. They need to be able to
put that same performance on the floor, regardless
of who they're playing and regardless of whether
they should or shouldn't win. And it was disappointing.
Very, very inconsistent performance from game
to game, match to match. It was not good, and
they have completely taken themselves out of
it, I think. I mean, their pool next week is
not very strong. They could get three wins, but
it's still only going to put them at six. I don't
have them making the playoffs. And then Slovenia,
in all transparency, I didn't see their matches
this week, but... they didn't do so hot well
especially after the start that they had you
thought that they were going to come out and
they were playing so well they beat good teams
um i didn't have a chance to watch them this
week i wonder if their young setter struggled
you know playing back to back but um it was not
the results i was expecting from them given how
they played in the first week so the interesting
thing about the vnl is that everybody's got a
different strategy you know we saw Brazil and
Italy field full rosters. We saw France and Japan
have secondary rosters. But everybody's goal
is generally to try and make the playoffs so
you can play good volleyball kind of at the end.
If you thought last week was wild with Adam's
number crunching probabilities, who's playing
who, let's watch out for this. This one is going
to be even worse, okay, because the men are crazy.
Yeah, I mean, at this point, probably 13, maybe
12 teams could potentially make the playoffs.
I think if we look at this realistically, and
I've kind of forecasted and looked at the pools
for next week, I'm going to go over the pools
for next week quickly, and then I'm going to
give you my thoughts, and then we'll talk about
relegation and who makes the playoffs. Okay,
so you're going to go through who? Who is, where
are we playing? Where are we playing? And then,
so then we're going to do predictions of who
will make the final eight. Correct. Followed
by predictions of who will be relegated. So if
we look at Poland, so pool one is in Poland.
It has China, France, Bulgaria, Cuba, Iran, and
Poland. So China's in the relegation race, Poland
and France, are going to be okay going into the
playoffs. France is kind of in that chunk, though.
France has five wins, okay? I feel like anybody,
like no one is safe. I think Brazil is safe.
Nobody is safe, but France is playing Poland,
China, Cuba, and Iran. So, I mean, Cuba's always
roll the dice, and if all of their players are
great and they're passing well. Cuba 100 % is
roll the dice. But France can also bring their
starting players. And they'll probably be okay.
So France -Poland, tough one. But I think France
could beat. It's likely going to beat the other
two. And Cuba, if Cuba can pass, that's the thing.
If Cuba can pass, they can beat anybody. They're
just so physical. But if they can't pass, they're
a train wreck. I have France winning three of
four matches in that pool play. So they'll come
out with eight. So they'll come out. And then
you have Bulgaria, Cuba, and Iran all have four.
So remember that. Okay. Second pool is in Slovenia.
So we have Ukraine, Netherlands, Serbia, Italy,
Canada, Slovenia. Okay. This is the battle for
relegation. Okay. So Ukraine, I believe, is going
to come. out and make the playoffs. They have
five points currently. They have Canada, Netherlands,
and Serbia in their pool. I think they win all
of those matches, and they end up with eight
wins going in. I don't see them beating Italy.
But Serbia is winless. Serbia has one win. Netherlands
has one win. Canada has three wins. And Canada's
not playing well. And I don't see... any of those
three rosters being particularly stronger next
week. Like, I don't think Serbia, Netherlands,
or Canada can make many changes. So unless Ukraine
crumbles under the being their first VNL of having
a chance to win or, you know, all of those things,
I see them coming out with eight points. And
then you have the battle for relegation with
this pool because you have Netherlands and Serbia.
They both have one win currently. And what I
think is going to happen. Are they playing each
other? They are not playing each other. No. So
Netherlands has Ukraine, Slovenia, Canada, and
Italy. They're going to lose to Ukraine, Slovenia,
and Italy, I would say. The match to be relegated,
in my opinion, is going to come down to Canada.
Canada is just men and women. They're just like,
hello, play us if you don't want to get relegated.
Both Netherlands and Serbia play Canada. So whoever
can beat Canada will probably stay in. Who do
you think has a better chance of beating Canada?
I think I have an idea. I would say the Netherlands.
Dang, that's what I thought too. Serbia just
doesn't. Serbia is a dumpster fire, this V &L.
Yeah. And I think from a stylistic standpoint,
I think Netherlands is a better matchup. I think
Netherlands' size is going to cause some issues.
Yeah, I agree. So, you know, and then in that
pool, Canada is going to be in the middle. They're
not going to get relegated, but they're not going
to make it out. And then you have Italy. Who's
going to come out? They have six wins. They play
Netherlands, Slovenia, Ukraine, Serbia. They're
going to come out with probably ten wins. They're
going to win at least two of those. Yeah. I don't
see them losing one of those matches. I think
they're going to finish at the top of the pile.
And then Slovenia, they have four wins. They
play Canada, Netherlands, Italy, and Serbia.
So they could come out with seven. They could
bounce back from week two and get three wins.
But I also could see them losing to Canada. Yeah,
like randomly. So, you know, we'll see. I don't
know what kind of a boost they'll get from playing
at home. But again, that's a roster that's not
going to get much better. Like they've fielded
their team. And I think a lot of it will come
down to how do their young guys play. So that
part is interesting. And then we get to, in my
opinion, the most interesting pool. So this one
is in Japan. So Argentina, Brazil, Turkey, USA,
Germany, Japan. Brazil's being thrown into some
tough... Yeah, but they got good matchups in
this one. So Brazil currently has seven wins.
They play Japan, and then they play Argentina,
Turkey, and Germany. I think Japan and Argentina
could be... like challenging matches, I think
they can handle Turkey and Germany. I think Brazil
wins three or four of that matches. Three of
four of those matches. Okay. I have full expectations
of Japan showing up with their studs. Japan can
do the level up. Yeah. So we're going to see
a different Japan. Well, I would assume so. As
long as everybody's healthy. And I don't, you
know, we don't have spies. checking out the injury
reports. Well, I don't have spies. Sarah might
have a network, but I don't. Hit me up on Instagram.
I'm expecting that Japan is going to want to
show up and show out at home. Well, what are
the teams that you think even period can still
level up? In my opinion, it's Japan, France,
and Poland can still level up. I would agree
with that. So those teams can bring more players.
So then... The other four teams all have a shot
to make the playoffs. So you have Argentina with
five wins. You have Japan with five wins. You
have Germany with four wins. And you have USA
with four wins. So here's my prediction of the
top down. So I think Brazil and Italy. Wait,
who is USA playing this week? So USA plays Turkey,
Argentina, Germany, and Japan. So I don't think
they're going to beat Japan. I think they'll
struggle with Argentina. I think that's the match
to get in. Yeah, that could go either way for
me. That'll be really challenging. I think that's
the match to get in. So in my estimate, I have
the following teams as locks to make the playoffs.
Brazil and Italy, I think, are going to end with
10 wins. I think that Poland and France are going
to finish 3 -4 with nine wins. So you think Brazil
is going to go, or Italy is going to go 4 -0
next? I think Italy is going to go 4 -0. Okay,
so there's four. I think Japan and Ukraine are
going to be 5 -6 with eight wins. So you, hold
on. I need to break this down a little slower.
Go ahead. You think Italy is going 4 -0. You
think France is going 4 -0. Yes. I think France
will beat Poland. You think France is beating
Poland? I do. Okay. In Poland? I do. That's bold.
I think France is going to bring their guns and
play. Yeah, but I also think that Poland can
level up more than France can. Well, okay. Fair
enough. I mean, again, it's going to be a great
match. It's going to be a great match. So Italy
and Brazil at the top. Yeah. Then you have Poland
and France. Japan, Ukraine, which is crazy. Ukraine
is like, hey, it's our first VNL. Let's do this.
Welcome to the party. And again, those ones,
I think those teams are going to be in. Could
Poland be France? So there's two spots left.
You know, whatever. Based on Adam's predictions,
there's two spots left. Making the playoffs is
the primary one. I know I'm going to get hate
from the Polish fans. It's fine. You're going
to get there. You're going to get there. Those
teams, I think, are safe. Okay. Okay. That leaves
us with a combination of these teams. Argentina,
Germany, Cuba, Iran, Bulgaria, USA, who are all
on the cusp, right? In the women's, we have like
three to four teams on the cusp. No. In the men's,
half the field. But most of those, again, are
in two pools. So if you look at it, Argentina,
Germany, and USA are all in the same pool. They
are all traveling to Japan. So not only are you
playing, but you're going across the world, and
you have to show up. That's a tough trip from
Argentina. It's a tough trip from the USA too.
It's worse from Argentina. Fair enough. So Argentina
probably not going to beat Brazil or Japan. Again,
it's definitely possible. I'm just saying if
both teams show up, if Brazil travels with their
team, So you have USA, you'll probably beat Turkey.
So USA comes down to that win. Germany, Japan,
Turkey, USA, Brazil. Again, probably not going
to beat Japan and Brazil, but you have Turkey,
you have USA, right? So all of those matches,
it's whoever comes out between that group. So
Germany, USA. Argentina. They're all, they need
to beat each other, and then they need to try
to win against, get an unpredicted win against
Brazil or Japan. Correct. And they all play Turkiye.
So if one of them drops that set. Turkiye just
ruins everybody's dreams, and they're like, surprise,
here we are. Yeah. Well, and it's the same thing.
You have Bulgaria, Cuba, and Iran all in the
same pool, all with four wins. But Iran plays
Poland, China, France, Bulgaria. Cuba plays China,
Bulgaria, Poland, France. Like, it's an absolute
disaster. I don't... For me, Bulgaria, if Mone
is better and can play, I think they get in.
If he's not, I don't think they get in. So it's...
I mean, I don't even know what the prediction
of these... of these last two spots are so basically
watch every single venue watch every single one
the other pool in slovenia i don't think is going
to be of much unless you're you want to see the
relegation matches then watch the slovenian group
so that's that's the relegation because i don't
have at the bottom you have serbia netherlands
both with one win and we talked about them playing
canada that's feasibly the only match they can
win i think and then i don't think china or turkey
is going to win a match next week. China was
better than I expected them to be. Just saying.
I'm totally on board with that sentiment. I think
that they've played great. But they play France,
Iran, Bulgaria, and Cuba. They're not going to
beat France, I don't think. But I think they
could legit win. If they serve well, they can
beat any of those other three teams. Oh! Okay.
You guys heard it here first. It's going to be
a mess for those last two spots, but let's see
if Adam is right in his top six with Brazil,
Italy, Poland, France, Japan, Ukraine. Let's
see. Write that down. Who do you think is okay?
So that's your prediction for getting in. What
are you thinking for relegation? I think Serbia
is going to be relegated. Because we think that
Netherlands is going to beat Canada and Serbia's
not. Yeah. I haven't looked at the tiebreak.
Well, Netherlands has more points than Serbia,
too. So if they both lose, and it's not in five,
then Serbia goes home. Serbia, what is happening?
Yeah, I don't know. Dang. So do you think Serbia,
you don't think Serbia's going to win a game
this week, next week? I think it's tough. They
play Italy. Ukraine and Slovenia in Slovenia
I mean we'll see what happens there and then
they play Canada here we are we're like Ukraine
fans now we're like Ukraine can take on anybody
they're gonna win they're just playing well they're
just they're just playing well and I guess if
that if that changes I mean obviously anybody
can lose like they don't have the same experience
or whatever else but I kind of hate, though,
that Serbia and Netherlands are not playing each
other. I feel like it needs to come down to that,
you guys. Wait, did they play each other in week
one? They were in the same place in week one.
They were in the same group again in week one,
and they didn't even play each other. This is
wild. So my prediction for seventh is if Moni
comes and he's healthy. I think Bulgaria makes
it in. If he doesn't, I don't think they make
it. And I have probably Argentina making it with
Cuba as my dark horse. Germany is also. So you
think USA is out? I think that USA is going to
be in tough. I think the lack of experience is
going to hurt them down the stretch. Well, let's
see what happens. Week three, always a mess.
I love it. We three for both men and women's
is going to be awesome. If you love seeing, you
know, having something on the line, pressure,
who's going to deal with who. I mean, it's going
to be great. But the men's is even more unpredictable.
Absolutely. Oh my gosh, this is going to be insane.
Let us know what you think of Adam's number crunching
predictions. Okay, let's get into our listener
questions. Question one. Do you think the Italian
men made a mistake making Micheletto an outside
hitter? For those of you who want a refresher,
Micheletto is very big. He is left -handed. This
person was basically like, I think he would be
an OP opposite because he's huge, he's left -handed,
blah, blah, blah. So what do you think? Do you
think they made a mistake? Well, correct me if
I'm wrong, they have another lefty who's very
good currently playing. Romanov, yes. Right.
So, you know, first and foremost, you want to
put your best players on the floor. So if both
of those guys are better than other guys, you
want to find a way to do that. Second of all,
it's way easier to go from a left side. to the
right side especially if you're left -handed
than it is to go the other direction so if he
can play that position specifically and he can
pass it gives you more options so training him
as an outside hitter and having the ability and
knowing you can move him back and forth and have
potentially a passing right side I think having
those all those options given his skill set makes
a ton of sense it's not like he struggles to
hit on the left side No, he's outstanding. And
A, he's huge. B, his passing is not bad. He can
handle himself. It also gives you a legitimate
block against other teams' right sides, which
not a lot of teams have. The flexibility to have
a player like that on the left side, I think,
makes a lot of sense. You wouldn't even think
about this if he was right -handed. Oh, 100%.
I'm just like, okay. And clearly, the combination
of having him and Romano on the court at the
same time is part of their combination of, like,
the best six. Like, if there was a left side
who was better than Micheletto, yeah, move him
to the right, 100%. But, like, I feel like, and
lefty left sides, if they can make it work. I
personally... I have not seen many lefty left
sides that are good. They can make it work. It's
very rare. And he's working with one of the best
setters in the world who can put him in a good
position. Although, Janelli did struggle to set
him a couple times in that Brazil match. They
got a little tight, a little inside. He was in
trouble. He's making it work. I don't have a
problem with it. The other thing to think about,
too, is it's very unusual to have a left -handed
outside. So from a block standpoint on the opposing
team, if you're not used to the lineup and it's
something you don't see all the time, it can
create some confusion in that. So there's a lot
of pros to it, in my opinion. And, I mean, you're
blessed with a... plethora of left -handed players
so i mean keep them on the court everybody up
and you can always make adjustments like we're
in year one of the cycle so i i think it's smart
and like i love i'm never opposed to a passing
right side situation but you have to think obviously
mickey aletto is a much better left side attacker
than romano is if those two are your are two
people you want on the court mickey aletto's
probably just way better at hitting on the left
than he is so they're like okay yeah good question
though Question two. Why is Catherine Plummer
not in VNL? Where is she? Do you think she'll
still play for an Olympic spot? I believe her
father passed away this past year. Like, recently.
I heard she left Azazibashi early because he
passed away, like, at the end of the season.
So it is quite recent. So, I believe she's...
going through that and dealing with it and and
that's it's never easy and you know if you have
the luxury of of being able to spend that time
with family and to do that then you know you
take it and I definitely think she'll be in an
Olympic spot um she'll be playing for the team
she's playing overseas she's doing all the right
things to be on track to play for them I don't
know if an injury is mixed in with all of those
personal circumstances but regardless if an injury
is involved or not, like, yeah, life is short.
So yeah. So she's, she's taken that time to spend.
Yeah. And I believe, I believe she has a contract
already for next year and she's set up. So you,
you will see her. We might even see her at worlds.
Question three, which U S women do you think
are going to be ousted for women's week three?
I was waiting for this question. Okay. Do you
want me to go through the players that were on
week two to give you a refresh? I think I remember
most of the players who were there. Sarah's making
that face because I sometimes struggle with names
and rosters. And just memory. Written down in
front of me. I think most important to this question
is who's available and coming this week. So it's
not just about kicking people off who haven't
played well enough to be there. It's who are
you replacing them with. So why don't we go through
that list. And then we'll make the substitutions
from there. Well, I was going to go position
by position and just see if we had any thoughts.
Okay. Okay, so the setters from week two were
Sage and Ella Mae Powell and Rachel Fairbanks
was the alternate. You're not going to change
that unless Poulter's actually going to come
and play. So... I think Powell needs to be left
home. That's who I would leave at home. Like,
bring anybody else. I'm sorry, but if Jenna Gray
is healthy, if Poulter's healthy, that should
be a swap for me. Yeah, I like traveling Fairbanks
because I think you're getting her travel experience
and understanding what's going on. Sage, honestly,
you guys know I'm not a fan from love, but she
has played much better than I... In week two,
she played much better than I expected. Week
two, the offense got... Faster and more international
style. Her decision -making was better. Her setting
wasn't always consistent, but it was better.
But I would leave Powell home and I'd bring one
of the other ones. Yeah, I would make the same.
So in the middle, they had IG'd, McCage, Ratke,
and Butler. I'm not sure I would make any changes
there. I mean, the Asia O 'Neill fans probably
want to see her there, but I think... The middle
switches they made from week one to two were
good. Dana's going to play. She was good. And
then you're basically looking at Ajid and Obagu.
Well, Obagu's not on the roster, but Butler.
Sorry, that's who I meant. Hence the names. Yeah,
there we go. So right side, they ended up using
Maddie Skinner on the right. So they had three
right sides there in Lednicki, Babcock, and Skinner.
Again, I said this before. Lednicki is fine.
I don't think she's played poorly. I also don't
think she's won the many matches. I think Skinner
was probably their best point scorer in week
two. So I think you keep her. There, I think
you keep bringing Babcock because she's super
young and she has a ton of upside. We're not
saying Lednicki's not young. She's also young.
Lednicki just doesn't have the same upside to
me as Babcock does currently. That might change
year to year. Her block positioning was not good.
She was steady offensively. a superstar she wasn't
killing them she was steady but i think she's
a blocking liability and a defensive liability
you you didn't really notice her that was my
issue like not good or bad she was just kind
of on the court when she played so i think if
you're looking at the future which i think they're
doing you you bring skinner who's going to play
every match you know and babcock who's going
to come in for the double sub and if they're
doing that I think the Tula Barrels are going
to stay the same with Rodriguez and Hentz. Yeah.
But I think they had too many opposites last
time, so I think they're going to have to bring
another left side. So the three left sides that
they ended up using or bringing were Ronnie Jones
-Perry, Eggleston, and Franklin. Leave Ronnie
Jones -Perry home. Yeah, you need to... I mean,
is Avery Skinner coming? Is she back from her
wedding or wherever she was? Well, leave Ronnie
Jones Perry home. Even if you keep Eggleston
and Franklin, you have two more that you can
bring. Let's bring a combination, two of Lanier,
Skinner, Adams. You bring Skinner and whoever
has passed the best at practice for the past
two weeks because you're going to need to pass
the ball, period. So all that being said, who
do we think is going to be ousted or think should
be ousted? Powell, Lednicki, Ronnie Jones -Perry.
Yeah. Okay. Last question of the day. Who is
your dream USA coach? Oh, my gosh. This question,
I'm assuming we're talking for the women. Yeah.
Can we clone Karch? So here's the thing. There's
a couple things at play here. One is, I think,
that the U .S. always wants to hire a U .S. person
for their national team. I think that's every
country's dream, how realistic it is. I mean,
you have a lot of volleyball knowledge and skill
in the US. It should be realistic. So as somebody
pointed out that I think Guidetti applied for
the USA job. He's in Canada now and he obviously
is a very qualified coach. The problem on the
women's side internationally is that there are
so many lucrative college jobs on the women's
side that you make way more money and you're
at home. coaching college women's in the U .S.,
then going overseas and starting out as a third
assistant and then working your way up to a second
assistant and then, you know, maybe getting a
head coaching job internationally. That's why
you don't see very many U .S. coaches coach pro
overseas. Right. There's just too many college
opportunities that make them more money. Dani
Busboom could be a very good international coach
if she was willing to put the time in overseas
to do that, but she's making, a ton of money
coaching the most prestigious program in the
country, why would you ever leave? It's a very
unique circumstance to the U .S. Right. So you
have all of these coaches who are great college
coaches but don't have any international experience.
And the games are very different. Yeah, they're
very different. It's a different skill set. It's
a really interesting question if you're forced
to stay with U .S. coaches. You're not forced
to stay. The question is, who's your dream coach?
I would say, and here's the thing, and we talked
about this a few episodes ago, is that North
Americans, generally speaking, are difficult
to coach. Just based on the type of feedback
that North American athletes are willing to accept.
Well, but I think that also stems from playing
collegially here, right? If you're a college
athlete, you're a stud. Like, if you're a good
college athlete, you're catered to. You get NIL
money now. Whatever you want. If you don't like
it, you just get up and you leave and you go
somewhere else. Like, I have written letters
of recommendation for coaches that I have been...
obsessed with were they were they like aggressive
did they challenge you did they beat around the
bush they never did no they're in your face but
i thought that they were outstanding coaches
and they just did not make it here because the
athletes couldn't handle it here being canada
but north america yeah so i would say like a
barbellini would be great You know, a coach of
that. You know who else I think would be great?
A Bernardinho. Yeah. But, like, Bernardinho,
you make a mistake, he stares you down and then
rips his shirt off. Like, how many North Americans
can handle that? Like, I played for the man for
two years. Like, he's outstanding. I think that
he would be a great coach for the program. The
way that he. sees the game, his tactics, his
drills. Like I said, Barbellini, but he's Italian.
These people, these great coaches have so much
emotion and fire. They don't try to make you
feel good. They just want to make you better.
And it's a challenge. So those two popped to
my mind with that question. Yeah, and I mean,
look at Karch is the perfect U .S. coach. He
can't coach both programs. He was very successful
with the women. Not sure what the reasons are
of why he switched to the men, but, you know,
he's your prototypical U .S. coach, and right
now I think there's a lack of international experience
that they have to choose from if you're going
to stay with American -born coaches. So, yeah.
So Adam refuses to answer that question. I mean,
I think, obviously, I think your choice, I think
Guidetti, Barbellini, Bernardinho, Karch. Like
all of those would be great for the program.
So we are heading into week three of the women's
VNL after our break week. And those matches are
being played in Appledore, Netherlands, Arlington,
Texas, and Chiba, Japan. Every match that's being
played in Arlington, Texas has meaning. That's
the pool we talked about where the playoffs are
on the line. So if you want to see some teams
fall apart. Who's going to rise to the occasion?
Arlington is where it's at. Any match being played
in Arlington is worth watching. But not the best
matches available. If you're looking for something
other than playoff hopeful teams, July 11th at
6 .20 a .m. Eastern, we have Poland versus Brazil.
That'll be a great game. July 12th at 1 o 'clock
p .m. Eastern, Turkey versus Italy. And then
July 13th at 8 p .m. Eastern, USA versus China.
So those would be the matches if you're looking
for great volleyball to pay attention to. If
you're looking for the pucker matches or the
make it to playoff matches, anything in Arlington
will do. That concludes this week's episode of
Volley Talk. There's always something shaking
in the volleyball world, and we hope you enjoyed
this little fix. Be sure to follow the show so
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out to us on Instagram or at info at sarahpavin
.com. Thanks so much for joining us. We're taking
a break next week, so we'll join you the week
after. Thanks.